What Did We Learn?

This loss hurts in the feels; in an environment like Sunday’s there is no other option in defeat. And that’s good:  the first ranked match-up in Thompson-Boling Arena since 2010 produced the close game we should expect from such an encounter, and the inevitable pain from losing it. In falling short (and especially falling short in the final minutes due to a pair of preventable turnovers), Tennessee missed the chance to make a memory for a younger generation of students and basketball fans.

But what hurts in the feels often finds its way to recovery in our heads. My head tells me the biggest takeaway from Sunday’s game isn’t the missed opportunity, but the way Tennessee gave themselves one. Yesterday’s performance against North Carolina proves earlier ones against Villanova and Purdue were no fluke. Tennessee has played three of the top eight teams in the nation (in KenPom). They led North Carolina for 37 minutes before falling by five. They beat Purdue while playing from behind throughout the first half and the first two minutes of overtime. And they led Villanova by 15 early and were still within three in the final minute of an eventual nine-point loss.

Don’t undervalue that Purdue win. Villanova is the number one team in the polls and the best team in the nation by a healthy margin in KenPom. But Purdue (sixth) is better than North Carolina (eighth) in the latter metric. And Tennessee made huge plays in the final minutes of regulation and overtime to win that game. “Tennessee can’t get it done against great teams,” isn’t the story. In three Top 10 match-ups the Vols are 1-2 with real opportunities to be 3-0.

This team is no fluke and no flash in the pan. In those three games Tennessee shot 36.3% against Purdue, 45.3% against Villanova, and 37.3% against North Carolina while going a combined 24-of-68 (35.2%) from the arc. These games haven’t been close because the Vols have been on fire. Tennessee hasn’t been lucky. The Vols are simply playing good enough basketball on both ends of the floor to give themselves a chance to win against the best teams in the country. That’s a real sentence in year three under Rick Barnes.

Tennessee hosts Furman (KenPom #134) on Wednesday, then has a pair of non-conference games remaining:  at Wake Forest (KenPom #65) on Saturday, and at Iowa State (KenPom #59) in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge in January. Split those games and go .500 in the SEC, and you’re 18-12 with a Top 50 RPI headed to the SEC Tournament. But Tennessee has played well enough to expect more than a, “Can we make the tournament?” conversation.

The SEC will test Tennessee’s consistency. But I don’t believe their ceiling to be any lower today than it was before tip-off yesterday; if anything, the ceiling is reinforced. Tennessee isn’t just playing with the best teams in college basketball, it’s giving itself a chance to win. The Vols beat Purdue, were within one possession of Villanova in the final minute, and gave away an opportunity to beat North Carolina. But there is nothing but opportunity in front of this team.

Tennessee vs North Carolina Preview

It’s been six years since Tennessee played a game like this, seven since they played one in Knoxville. Let’s go.

Relax about the MiG.

RPI Forecast gives Tennessee an 88.9% chance to finish with 19 or more regular season wins. Their projections shouldn’t be taken as gospel today, but become more reliable every night. A 19-11 finish projects to an RPI of 36 headed to the SEC Tournament. That dances.

Tennessee can already check the boxes next to strength of schedule, quality wins, and road/neutral wins. The SEC is first in conference RPI, has eight teams in Ken Pomeroy’s Top 50 and the entire league in the Top 85. Plus seven SEC schools in the December 9 Bracket Matrix update, where the Vols are a five seed.

Relax. Almost every night of conference play will provide an opportunity. This one isn’t about March. Like Villanova, this is about Tennessee’s ceiling.

The Defending Champs

North Carolina was 27-7 heading to March, fought off a stiff challenge from Arkansas in the second round, then beat Kentucky by two in the Elite Eight and Oregon by one in the Final Four. It wasn’t easy, but the Tar Heels cut down the nets by beating Gonzaga in the title game. Justin Jackson and Tony Bradley became first round draft picks, but plenty of talent returns; several Tar Heels have made the most of expanded minutes.

That’s especially true for Luke Maye. He averages a double-double at 19.9 points and 10.5 rebounds. Joel Berry, who did not play against the Vols last season, is second on the team in scoring at 16.0 points per game. Kenny Williams adds 13.4 points and 55% shooting from the arc, and Theo Pinson averages 9.4 points and 4.4 assists per game. Those four do the majority of the heavy lifting for Carolina, all averaging between 28-32 minutes per game.

They’ll come to Knoxville 9-1 and no fan of close games. The lone blemish came via #4 Michigan State: the Tar Heels shot 24.6% from the floor and 1-of-18 from the arc in a 63-45 loss in the Phil Knight tournament. In every other game, North Carolina has shot better than 47% and scored at least 85 points.

That includes a 19-point win over Arkansas (#30 KenPom) and a 15-point win over Michigan (#36 KenPom). In their only true road game before this weekend, Carolina beat Stanford (#110 KenPom) by 24.

Like us, with more talent

Last year Tennessee led by 15 in the first half before an avalanche of offensive rebounds buried them in the second. Tony Bradley had seven of those in 20 minutes; this time around the match-up should be more even.

It’s remarkable how similar the Vols and Tar Heels have been in the early going, having both faced enough competition to feel good about the sample size:

  • North Carolina is 34th in field goal percentage (49.5%) and 59th in field goal percentage defense (40.1%). Tennessee shoots 45.2% from the floor, leads the nation in assist percentage, and is 30th in field goal percentage defense (38.3%).
  • North Carolina is 42nd in three-point percentage (39.9%). Tennessee is 21st (41.2%). But neither team lives by the three:  UNC is 258th nationally in three-pointers attempted, UT 305th.
  • North Carolina plays through Luke Maye (6’8″, 240 lbs). Tennessee plays through Grant Williams (6’7″, 241 lbs).
  • These are two of the very best teams in the nation at defending inside the arc. North Carolina is 16th in two-point field goal percentage defense (41.6%), 32nd in blocked shots, and (like Villanova) does a great job defending without fouling: the Tar Heels are 21st nationally in opponent free throw attempts. The Vols are 7th in two-point field goal percentage defense (40.4%), and tied with Carolina for 32nd in blocked shots.
  • North Carolina is 27th in offensive rebounding percentage (36.6%). Tennessee is 45th (35.9%).
  • North Carolina’s only loss is to the number two team in KenPom. Tennessee’s only loss is to number one.

The biggest difference between us is tempo:  Carolina plays the 15th-fastest pace in college basketball. Tennessee isn’t slow at 117th, but has played a diverse set of opponents without being overly interested in dictating a faster pace. The Vols beat Lipscomb (12th in tempo) and Georgia Tech (343rd in tempo) in their last two games. Tennessee plays a much more balanced rotation, with seven players getting between 20-27 minutes. In their history of Roy Williams vs Rick Barnes, SB Nation’s Tar Heel Blog points out when Barnes’ teams have won, they usually beat Carolina at their own game:  crash the boards and score a bunch of points.

I expect the Vols to have an opportunity to get this thing done; Villanova looks like the best team in the country by a healthy margin right now, and Tennessee certainly had their moments then. North Carolina is certainly more talented, but Thompson-Boling will present an environment this version of the Tar Heels hasn’t seen just yet. It may simply happen that we get beat by a more talented team. But it may simply happen that the environment is enough to push a good Tennessee team to victory over a great opponent. The Vols also can’t let the atmosphere and the opportunity get them out of their own element; most of this roster knows it should have won this game last year, which should help in that department.

Sagarin’s predictor at RPI Forecast gives the Vols a 42% chance to win; ESPN’s BPI gives the Vols a 48% chance. We’ve come a long way in a short time. If Tennessee continues to share the basketball well on offense and defend at a high level on the other end, the Vols can get this done.

Sunday, 3:00 PM ET, ESPN. Go Vols.

 

Tennessee Leads the Nation in Assist Percentage

There will be plenty of words to come about Sunday’s match-up between #20 Tennessee and #7 North Carolina, only the Vols’ third ranked non-conference match-up in Knoxville since Thompson-Boling Arena opened 30 years ago. But first, a note about something the Vols are doing so well it should impact their performance this season far beyond this weekend.

Last year, assists were Tennessee’s best predictor of success. The Vols were 13-1 when they had 16+ assists, 3-15 when they had 15 or less. The point guards were new, Grant Williams was a freshman, and Robert Hubbs was sometimes left to simply do it himself. In Tennessee’s season opener last year, the Vols had only four assists in a loss to Chattanooga.

Fast forward one year, and the Vols are already 3-0 with 15 assists or less, all three victories coming against major conference opponents. Tennessee is defending well enough to beat above average and even good teams, even when shots aren’t falling. This, in turns, makes Tennessee an above average and maybe even a good team.

What might make Tennessee a great team:  the Vols are first in the nation in assist percentage (stats via Sports Reference).

Tennessee gets an assist on 70.8% of its made baskets. Last year that number finished at 54.9%, 123rd nationally. In their first seasons, Jordan Bone (2.9) and Lamonte Turner (2.7) were the only players to average more than two assists per game. So far this year Bone (3.6) and Turner’s (2.4) numbers are solid, while Grant Williams has gotten involved as an inside-out passer with 2.6 assists per game. And James Daniel, who everyone assumed would provide a scoring punch, currently leads the team in assists with 4.0 per game.

We’ve been making this point since the preseason: last year the Vols weren’t a good shooting team at 42.2% from the floor, 289th nationally. They didn’t add a bunch of pure shooters to the roster this year and lost Hubbs’ ability to get his own shot. If Tennessee was going to shoot the ball better, it would have to come through getting better shots.

And through eight games against the nation’s 15th toughest schedule in RPI, the Vols are doing just that. Grant Williams averages 16.1 points in 27.1 minutes per game. And when defenses collapse on him, the Vols are sharing the ball exceptionally well, getting open shots, and knocking them down. Tennessee is shooting 41.2% from the arc, 21st nationally, while ranking only 291st in three pointers attempted. There is such discipline and intent behind what the Vols are doing on offense, paired with a defense holding opponents to 38.3% from the field.

This is a well-coached, well-executing team. And that should carry Tennessee a long way toward March, no matter happens on Sunday.

 

Gameday on Rocky Top Bowl Pick ‘Em

Our Gameday on Rocky Top Bowl Pick ‘Em via Fun Office Pools is now open! Games start this Saturday, so join the pool and get your picks in now. If you’ve played in any of our contests before, you should have received an email inviting you to join.

The pool uses confidence points for all 39 bowls plus the national championship: pick the winners straight up, then assign a confidence value (1-39) for each pick. It’s a great way to keep up with all the bowls over the next three-and-a-half weeks.

The winner gets a Gameday on Rocky Top hoodie. Any questions, leave them in the comments.

Good luck!

A History of Ranked Match-ups in Knoxville

How special is Sunday’s showdown with North Carolina? Here are the ranked non-conference match-ups in the history of Thompson-Boling Arena:

  • #9 Tennessee 66 #18 Wisconsin 56 on November 21, 2000
  • #16 Tennessee 76 #1 Kansas 68 on January 10, 2010
  • #20 Tennessee vs #7 North Carolina, Sunday

That’s it.

This has been our fault more often than not:  since TBA opened 30 years ago, the Vols have only been ranked in 11 different seasons (shout out, as always, to Tennessee’s media guide for such helpful information). Don DeVoe’s last team was there in 1989, as were Jerry Green’s SEC Champions for all of 2000 and parts of 1999 and 2001. Each of Bruce Pearl’s six squads spent time in the Top 25, including the entire season in 2008 and 2010. And now Rick Barnes has Tennessee back in the Top 25.

In those 11 seasons the Vols have played just 13 total ranked vs. ranked games in Knoxville. Four of them came in a span of seven weeks in 2010. The other nine include three other seasons in the last 17 years. A walk down memory lane:

  • 2000: #11 Tennessee 105 #7 Auburn 76 (January 25) – This was my freshman year at UT, and this was an absolute beat down. Auburn was Sports Illustrated’s preseason pick to win it all, but they were buzz-sawed by Tennessee. Tiger star Chris Porter was in foul trouble early and often, thanks in large part to the play of true freshman Ron Slay.
  • 2000: #8 Tennessee 76 #12 Florida 73 (OT) (February 12) – Having already won a double overtime game in Gainesville, the Vols got the season sweep by beating the Gators in another overtime in Knoxville. This Florida team was led by Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem; Miller played 17 years in the NBA, and Haslem is unbelievably still on Miami’s roster. But C.J. Black got the best of his match-up with Haslem as the Vols won both meetings. The Gators finished third in the SEC East but played their way to the title game of the NCAA Tournament before falling to Michigan State.
  • 2000: #7 Tennessee 74 #18 Kentucky 67 (February 23) – Having finally broken through against Kentucky the year before, Tennessee made it two in a row in Knoxville and helped win a share of the SEC Championship in the regular season. The Vols would earn a four seed in the NCAA Tournament and make the Sweet 16 for the first time since expansion to 64 teams.
  • 2001: #9 Tennessee 66 #18 Wisconsin 56 (November 21, 2000) – Part of a 15-1 start to the season that saw the Vols climb to #4 in the polls, a run which also included…
  • 2001: #4 Tennessee 86 #16 Alabama 69 (January 9) – The Vols started 3-0 in SEC play, lost at Rupp Arena, then beat Mississippi State to get to 4-1. They lost in double overtime at Georiga, lost at #13 Florida, then pounded Vanderbilt by 22 points to stay in the Top 10. Then they lost five games in a row, including:
  • 2001: #22 Kentucky 103 #15 Tennessee 95 (February 14) – …and they lost most of their interest in playing defense. There was a chance to rebound four days later, but…
  • 2001: #11 Florida 88 #15 Tennessee 82 (February 18) – …they did not. Tennessee still made the NCAA Tournament, lost to Charlotte in an 8/9 game in the first round, and Jerry Green was out.
  • 2008: #8 Tennessee 85 #16 Ole Miss 83 (January 9) – Bruce Pearl’s first two teams never got to play in a ranked match-up in Knoxville, but the 2008 squad was tested on the opening night of SEC play. The Rebels were undefeated coming into this one, and erased a 12-point Tennessee lead to take a four point advantage with two minutes to play. With the game on the line, the Vols went to Tyler Smith and he cashed in.
  • 2008: #6 Tennessee 80 #16 Vanderbilt 60 (January 17) – Sure, Vanderbilt beat the Vols when they were #1 a little later this season. But this one in Knoxville remains one of the best games I’ve ever seen Tennessee play against a good team. Wayne Chism had 18 points and 18 rebounds and the Vols held Vanderbilt to 3-of-21 from the arc while forcing 22 turnovers.
  • 2010: #16 Tennessee 76 #1 Kansas 68 (January 10) – On another Sunday afternoon eight seasons ago….here’s a strange thought:  freshmen in the student section this Sunday night were in elementary school when the Vols pulled this one off. Nine days after three players were suspended and Tyler Smith was dismissed for having guns and drugs in a vehicle (and two days before Lane Kiffin left in the middle of the night), a ragtag group of Volunteers played the game of their lives against the #1 Jayhawks. Renaldo Woolridge hit three threes in the first half, and Skyler McBee provided a shot for the ages in the final minute as the shot clock expired. One of the biggest wins in the history of Tennessee basketball. Video highlightsPostgame Story from RTT
  • 2010: #6 Tennessee 71 #21 Ole Miss 69 (OT) (January 16) – Still short-handed six days later, the Vols got 26 points and 12 rebounds from Wayne Chism to continue a remarkable run.
  • 2010: #21 Vanderbilt 85 #14 Tennessee 76 (January 27) – For all their accomplishments, the 2010 Vols could not handle Vanderbilt. The Dores – en route to a four seed in the NCAA Tournament – won in Knoxville by nine and in Nashville by 19.
  • 2010: #19 Tennessee 74 #2 Kentucky 65 (February 27) – The Kansas win was special, but on this day the Vols not only beat one of the most talented teams to ever play in TBA, but put the brand of basketball on display that would carry them to the doorstep of the Final Four one month later. The John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins Wildcats in John Calipari’s first season were 27-1 coming into Knoxville, but left 27-2 thanks to 2-of-22 shooting from the three-point line. The Vols got 20 from J.P. Prince and 15 from Scotty Hopson, who hit a three with the shot clock winding down in the final minute to put the Vols up five. I don’t know of another team the Vols have faced at TBA that started two future NBA All-Stars. Tennessee finished the game on a 9-0 run to break a 65-65 tie.

It’s unfortunate that we’ve only played 13 of these games in 30 years. But the good news:  Tennessee is 10-3 in those games.

Sunday will be special, echoing beyond just what it could mean for this year’s team. Simply getting to this point means Rick Barnes has done what Wade Houston, Kevin O’Neill, Buzz Peterson, Cuonzo Martin, and Donnie Tyndall could not in the regular season. Getting the Vols to stay in college basketball’s national conversation is the next step. No better way to do that than by beating North Carolina on what should be an electric Sunday in Thompson-Boling.

As football moves forward, basketball is making its own moment

Tennessee basketball has come to the aid of Tennessee football at critical junctures twice in the last dozen years. When the football Vols stumbled in the fall of 2005, missing a bowl for the first time since 1988, Bruce Pearl’s first team turned in a two seed in the NCAA Tournament. I remember him saying something like, “This basketball team got us through the winter,” and he was right. And when Lane Kiffin left in the middle of a January night in 2010, Pearl took the Vols to the Elite Eight two months later. I remember Brent Hubbs on the radio, in the immediate aftermath of the Derek Dooley hire, saying something like, “I think Tennessee is a basketball school for a little while.” And he was right.

These last two weeks were a mess for Tennessee football, one that threatened to end up a whole lot worse than having Jeremy Pruitt as head coach and Phillip Fulmer as athletic director. In the midst of such turmoil, it appears Tennessee basketball was once again ready to carry the fan base. Even better, then, is football carrying positive momentum forward while basketball capitalizes on its own moment.

That big stage moment is coming in nine days, when football can (possibly) introduce a head football coach and wow recruits on the final day before the dead period, while basketball hosts North Carolina in a sold-out (and checkered) Thompson-Boling Arena. All that stands between now and then is Lipscomb at 2:15 PM tomorrow.

Like Mercer, Lipscomb is no cupcake:  the Bisons are 128th in KenPom and join Florida Gulf Coast as the runaway favorites in the Atlantic Sun. Though bested by Alabama and Texas by a combined 55 points, Lipscomb beat Belmont twice by a combined 23 points.

The Bisons will go, currently playing the 10th fastest pace in college basketball while averaging 76.6 points per game. That number jumps up to 81.1 if you take out the games against Alabama and Texas; hopefully the Vols will have similar success slowing them down. Tennessee was able to do so against NC State’s faster tempo, but Lipscomb (and then North Carolina) will be an even quicker challenge. And unlike Mercer, Lipscomb won’t face the Vols without their best player:  6’5″ guard Garrison Mathews is averaging 19.6 points while shooting 45.1% from the arc.

The Vols could get caught looking ahead here. But I would rely on what Tennessee is already doing so well this season (numbers from KenPom and Sports Reference):

  • Tennessee is 18th in Ken Pomeroy’s defensive ratings (and 21st in KenPom overall). The Vols are 29th in opponent field goal percentage allowed and eighth nationally in two-point field goal percentage allowed. Other than Villanova, no team has shot better than 38.9% against Tennessee.
  • The Vols are 11th nationally in three-point shooting (!) at 42.6%. Tennessee is 301st nationally in threes attempted, averaging 21.1 per game. This shows Tennessee isn’t forcing things, but getting really good looks (and knocking them down) out of their offense. Jordan Bowden continues to lead the way here, shooting an absurd 64% from the arc on 16-of-25. But Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bone, and Admiral Schofield all also shoot between 42-44% from three.
  • Tennessee is 24th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (37.2%, a big reason they’re rated so highly in KenPom) despite playing a bunch of guys under 6’8″ plus 20 minutes of Kyle Alexander. The 6’11” junior had 57 offensive rebounds in 2016-17. He already has 25 in seven games this season. His maturation is one of the most important storylines to this Tennessee team.
  • In seven games, the Vols have only had 15 of their shots blocked. That’s 5.5% of their shot attempts, the 21st best percentage in the nation. Again:  good offense creates great shot selection. 

It’s not just North Carolina but the SEC that will test the Vols. The league has four teams (including Tennessee) in the KenPom Top 25 and another four in the Top 50. There will be plenty of chances to see exactly how good Tennessee is. But the Vols are already well-versed in strength of schedule, and look like a threat to not just be ranked for a couple weeks as a nice story, but stay in the poll for the long haul.

To do that, and to play their way to the big stage next weekend, they’ll need to go through Lipscomb. 2:15 PM ET Saturday on the SEC Network. It is a joy to have hope in both football and basketball.

Go Vols.

 

Report: USC’s Tyson Helton to be Tennessee’s Offensive Coordinator

Jeremy Pruitt works fast:  VolQuest is reporting Southern Cal passing game coordinator Tyson Helton will be Tennessee’s new offensive coordinator. He will lead an offensive staff including Robert Gillespie staying on with running backs, and Colorado State offensive coordinator Will Friend coming aboard as offensive line coach, plus a familiar face in the secondary:

 

Tyson Helton is the younger brother of the Trojans’ head coach Clay Helton. He has served as USC’s passing game coordinator the last two years.

This is a strange twist of fate for Tee Martin, no doubt, who serves as USC’s offensive coordinator. The former Vol didn’t appear to be among the finalists for Tennessee’s head coaching vacancy, and now one of his colleagues heads to Knoxville as offensive coordinator.

I have no idea what kind of head coach Tee Martin would be; I hope a tremendous one. But Tennessee’s previous coaching staff serves as somewhat of a warning for hires of convenience or friendship. Butch Jones brought almost his entire staff from Cincinnati to Knoxville initially, then made comfort hires at offensive coordinator when change presented itself. Mike DeBord never got the benefit of the doubt at Tennessee, in part for this very reason; he orchestrated the best offense in college football last November. But Larry Scott’s promotion was disastrous for Tennessee and ultimately for Butch Jones. A failure to operate outside of comfort zones on offense and/or the elevation of recruiting over scheme handcuffed Tennessee’s offense.

Tyson Helton is a move in a different direction, in what may be Pruitt’s most important hire.

As Southern Cal’s passing game coordinator, Helton led the Trojans to the eighth-best passing offense in S&P+ this year (see USC’s full advanced statistical profile at Football Study Hall); they finished fourth nationally in the same metric last year. Sam Darnold is eighth nationally in yards per attempt among QBs with 300+ attempts. Helton and Martin obviously did a good job helping Darnold position himself as one of the top picks in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Before joining his brother at USC, Helton worked with another name Tennessee fans have salivated over in the past two weeks:  he was the offensive coordinator under Jeff Brohm at Western Kentucky.

Brohm has been the play-caller at WKU and Purdue, an important point. But Helton’s role as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach helped produce incredible offenses in 2014 and 2015. In 2015 the Hilltopper offense finished fourth nationally in S&P+ (see Western Kentucky’s advanced statistical profile), third in yards per play, and third in points per game. They were fifth and sixth nationally in those last two categories in 2014.

Helton has studied under Brohm and coached a potential number one overall draft pick alongside Tee Martin. Now he’ll get his chance in a bigger role with play-calling responsibilities. It’s a big hire for Jeremy Pruitt, but I like the background, the willingness to go outside the familiar, and the emphasis on scheme.

The Bricks and The Ceiling

I’ve already been wrong about Jeremy Pruitt once. Fourteen months ago, #9 Tennessee and #1 Alabama played the highest-ranked Third Saturday in October ever. The Vols had just dropped 684 yards on Texas A&M, and touched up Georgia’s defenses for 920 yards and 70 points in their last two meetings with Pruitt. Despite a number of injuries against the Aggies, I thought the Vols would beat Alabama and continue their magical season, based largely on what I thought Tennessee’s offense would do against Alabama’s defense.

Instead, most of those injured players didn’t return, and Alabama held Tennessee to 163 yards and 2.59 yards per play. It was the worst yards per play performance by a Tennessee offense in the last ten years…until we played Alabama this year, and got 2.35.

 

The magic ran out for Tennessee on that October day in 2016, and indeed for Butch Jones too. It peaked between the hedges two weeks earlier and at least a dozen narratives ago. After starting 5-0 last year, the Vols are 8-12 in their last 20 games. And the team on the other end of that hail mary looks mighty fine today.

What’s behind the emphasis on defense and discipline?

I’m sure Kirby Smart’s success made all three of Tennessee’s finalists more appealing; Georgia’s head coach would have no doubt been mentioned in the press conference as an example of what could be had the Vols hired Kevin Steele or Mel Tucker, and you can expect to hear it when they’re introducing Jeremy Pruitt. But I wonder if something else was in Tennessee’s motivation to lean in that direction – it was John Currie’s first choice too with Greg Schiano – and not, we know now, because Tee Martin was guaranteed to come in on the offensive side of the ball.

Coaching hires are indeed pendulum swings, so it makes sense to hire a defensive coach after five years of the Butch Jones offense. But the more pressing need (and the more apparent one to those behind the scenes, perhaps) may have been discipline and roster management. How many talented players in significant roles failed to finish their careers at Tennessee under the previous administration? It wasn’t just the weirdness of Jalen Hurd’s story. There’s a long list from Marquez North to Jauan Jennings.

Butch Jones knew how to recruit elite talent, but coaching it and keeping it were not his strong suits. This was an unchecked box for some candidates as well, but having spent the last five years as the defensive coordinator at Florida State, Georgia, and Alabama, it does not appear to be an issue for Jeremy Pruitt.

Are we better off?

The default position for Tennessee fans will be, “Yes.” And I might agree even if I wasn’t one.

Moving on from an athletic director who was so out of touch with both football and the fan base that Greg Schiano was his go-to choice, then replacing him with Phillip Fulmer? That still feels like a win on its own. Is Tennessee better off with Fulmer and Jeremy Pruitt than they would have been with Currie and Mike Leach? I don’t know how that answer will play itself out on fall Saturdays in the near future. But considering Leach was the emergency option for Currie only after missing on Dave Doeren? I would still take Pruitt and Fulmer’s leadership.

I remain hopeful Tennessee’s revolt against the Schiano pick and the resulting power shift will be a good thing long-term. In the short-term, Pruitt is as good as Tennessee and Fulmer had any right to do after this crazy set of days.

A ceiling hire

There are no sure things in this business, and throwing money at the problem is no guarantee. Florida State, one of the few jobs clearly better than ours even when we are at our best, just hired a coach who was in the third tier of many of our initial hot boards. And they hired him in a hurry. Some Tennessee fans better hope they were right about Dan Mullen.

However, even unable to lure a proven winner, even after a fan uprising and a change in athletic director, and even after the worst season in program history…Tennessee still made a ceiling hire. And I’m very impressed with this.

The Vols could have taken the safe option and hired Les Miles, or the easy option and hired Tee Martin. Both would have been very well received initially and sold their fair share of tickets. But the Vols, despite everything, still made a hire with their eyes on the biggest prize. Credit Fulmer, who would know about such things.

To be clear, there are risks. It might be that Jeremy Pruitt is an excellent defensive coordinator and a lousy head coach. We don’t know. Butch Jones had a higher floor (or so we all thought at the time). But Pruitt has a higher ceiling than both Jones and Derek Dooley on the day they took this job. And he probably has a higher ceiling than Les Miles in 2017.

This search was a mess. It will take time to fully digest, and it will stay in the news, and not just because of lawyers. If Pruitt struggles early or often, Tennessee fans will get some of the blame. That narrative is already alive and well and will be convenient for some in the national media to return to. The same unity that sparked all of this will be necessary in the months ahead.

But at the search’s end, Tennessee still hired a coach it believes can win the biggest prize here. I’m not sure they could say that with a straight face at the last two press conferences. And since it will be Fulmer’s face this time, there’s all the more reason to believe it.

Tennessee at Georgia Tech Preview

One more reason this weekend was a great time to take a breath on the coaching search:  you can pay attention to the best thing on campus right now.

The basketball Vols are 26th in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, a far more valid early season rating than RPI…but, hey, the Vols are currently 16th in RPI. In the December update at the Bracket Matrix, the Vols are an eight seed. So far, so good.

Georgia Tech took some of the sting out of Sunday’s contest by losing to Grambling at home on an own-goal tip-in on Friday.

The Yellow Jackets have lived dangerously all year:  three-point loss to UCLA, three-point win over Bethune-Cookman, one-point win over Northwestern along with Friday’s one-point loss. One year ago this weekend, Tennessee played one of their best games of the season in blitzing Georgia Tech 81-58 in Knoxville. The Vols shot 52.8% from the field and 6-of-11 (54.5%) from the arc.

Georgia Tech was 4-3 at that point, but played their way onto the bubble. The Yellow Jackets were 15-10 (6-6) on February 11, but lost five of their last seven. In the NIT they played their way to New York, falling to TCU in the championship game.

The Vols so far:  defense and open threes

Tennessee has only taken 128 threes; 21.3 per game is more than last year, but the total is still only good for 274th nationally. But they are typically good-to-great looks:  Tennessee is shooting 43% from the arc, 16th in the country.

It doesn’t surprise to see Grant Williams (16.5 ppg) and Admiral Schofield (12.0 ppg) atop Tennessee’s leaderboard. What is interesting is the early separation Jordan Bowden has achieved:  10.7 points in 26.7 minutes (second-best on the team behind Williams), and 14-of-23 (60.9%) from the arc. Last year Bowden was a 31.5% shooter from deep. I’m sure he won’t shoot 60.9% all year, but key differences are already emerging:  Tennessee is successfully running more of its offense through Grant Williams inside, and getting great play from Jordan Bone (3.2 assists) and James Daniel (4.7 assists). As a result, Bowden is getting a bunch of really good looks, and he is taking full advantage.

Meanwhile, the Vol defense has ensured Tennessee can win games even when the shots aren’t dropping. When not playing Villanova, Tennessee is giving up just 36.5% from the floor. Even including the game against the Wildcats (who shot 46%), the Vols are still 36th nationally in field goal percentage defense. Rick Barnes is sure to like that.

Georgia Tech:  a three-headed attack

Freshman guard Jose Alvarado averages 14.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game for Josh Pastner’s squad. Fellow guard Tadric Jackson averages 14.3 and six rebounds, and 6’10” Ben Lammers gets 14.2 points and 8.2 rebounds while playing 35+ minutes. Keep an eye on Curtis Haywood II from the arc (12-of-22 so far this year), but those three represent a majority of GT’s productivity.

Tennessee has proven they can compete and win against a number of different styles early, from Purdue’s size to Villanova’s guards and NC State’s up-tempo game. It’s the opposite Sunday in Atlanta:  Georgia Tech is 337th in tempo, averaging only 63.5 points per game.

It’s a big chance to continue the early season momentum, and getting through the Yellow Jackets would leave only Lipscomb between now and a showdown with North Carolina on December 17. For that to be a big day in Knoxville in two weeks, the Vols need a big night in Atlanta tonight.

6:00 PM ET, ESPNU. Go Vols.

 

Feels Like Home

When Tennessee’s search came up empty in Raleigh on Thursday morning, it seemed like two options were available. The Vols could press pause, take a breath after the events of an unprecedented week, and reset the board. Or the Vols could press on, try to make a hire as quickly as possible to change the narrative, and “settle” for a down-the-board unproven.

Thursday afternoon, John Currie instead went for door number three: let’s get Mike Leach, and let’s get weird. In their desperation, they turned to a man they didn’t fully understand. And what a grand experiment this would have been.

Then on Friday morning, weird and unprecedented collided head-on. And on Friday afternoon, at the end of our most insane week at the end of our most insane decade…on Friday afternoon, Tennessee found its way home.

To be clear, the house needs a lot of work. The brick-by-brick renovations looked good for a moment, but ultimately had to be torn down. But today, Phillip Fulmer is the athletic director, and Tennessee feels like home.

This has to be the culmination of the insanity.

We throw “rock bottom” around too often; at the end of the program’s first 4-8 season it’s easy to do. The Vols may continue to struggle on the field in the short-term, and no athletic program of this size and stature runs without drama. But if Tennessee is going to move forward in a meaningful way, Friday has to be the end of the madness.

Tennessee forced Fulmer out at the tail end of the 2008 season, one year after he won 10 games and his fifth division title. They replaced him with Lane Kiffin. Since then:

  • Kiffin left in the middle of the night to take the Southern Cal job after just one season in January 2010.
  • The Vols hired Derek Dooley fresh off a 4-8 season at Louisiana Tech.
  • Bruce Pearl took the basketball program to its first Elite Eight in March 2010, then lost his job one year later, in part for lying about a photograph taken at a BBQ, for which he received a three-year show cause.
  • Derek Dooley was fired after three years by Dave Hart, who replaced Mike Hamilton as athletic director. The Vols had Charlie Strong, then didn’t, and ended up hiring Butch Jones.
  • Cuonzo Martin took the Vols to the Sweet 16 in 2014, then left for California after a low-ball offer from Dave Hart, who chose not to denounce an in-season petition for Bruce Pearl’s return.
  • Hart hired Donnie Tyndall in April 2014. In November, the NCAA announced an investigation into his time at Southern Miss. He was fired after one season in Knoxville.
  • Hart retired, in part due to the university’s involvement in a Title IX lawsuit alleging a culture of rape at Tennessee, as did chancellor Jimmy Cheek. Beverly Davenport replaced Cheek, then hired John Currie to replace Dave Hart.
  • Butch Jones signed a pair of Top 10 recruiting classes in 2014 and 2015, but coached that talent to only a pair of 9-4 seasons in 2015 and 2016. Tennessee lost to Florida in inexplicable fashion in 2014, 2015, and 2017, failed to win the SEC East despite beating Florida and Georgia in 2016, and missed a chance to make a New Year’s Six bowl by losing to Vanderbilt. In 2017 the Vols fell apart and finished 4-8 for the first time in program history. Jones was fired.

And then, this week.

People smarter than me, including Phillip Fulmer, will tell you Tennessee has suffered on the field and court in large part because they suffered in the board room:  the administration, the athletic department, and influential boosters playing too much tug-of-war. With Fulmer at the helm in the AD, Tennessee must start exerting the majority of its might toward the same goals. And Fulmer at the helm gives Tennessee a better chance to do so than we’ve seen in the last decade.

The long-term became more important this week.

When Tennessee lost to South Carolina and change was moving from possible to probable, this still seemed like a short-term fix. Tennessee’s senior class is small and there are still plenty of recruiting stars on the roster, unlike the turnover we saw from Kiffin-to-Dooley and Dooley-to-Butch. The Vols won nine games in 2015 and 2016, and were ranked for the first three weeks of this season. Hire the right coach and they might come in and sustain the level Butch Jones enjoyed, then hopefully level up.

Since then the Vols lost to Kentucky and were non-competitive in the second half with Missouri, LSU, and Vanderbilt. Two offensive linemen who would have been starters next year will no longer be on the team in 2018, plus a five-star legacy lineman opened up his recruitment. A legitimate conversation about whether to keep Butch Jones if he went 8-4 quickly turned into a 4-8 season, and an understanding that whoever was next would have multi-year work to do to get Tennessee back.

But as this week spiraled out of control, it became clear Tennessee’s long-term future was at stake. And it became clear this wasn’t a problem to be solved simply by making the right hire for the football team.

Friday morning, it felt like Tennessee football was more vulnerable than at any point in my lifetime. Even when the Vols hired Derek Dooley and you knew things would be bad for a couple of years, Tennessee was still just two seasons removed from an SEC East title and eight years removed from the doorstep of the BCS Championship Game. The program was relevant in a way that could (and did) survive Dooley, and survive a three-year recruiting failure from 2007-09.

But now, on the heels of 4-8 and with such instability in the athletic department, Tennessee’s long-term future was in jeopardy. At the end of a difficult decade, the perception quickly became that continuing to march to the beat of the same drum – one that thought Greg Schiano was the best option – would prevent Tennessee from getting healthy. And thus Currie is out, Fulmer is in, and the Haslams’ power seems diminished, with fan voices singing their approval.

An underrated variable in this whole equation is timing, something which finally worked in Tennessee’s favor in basketball when Rick Barnes became available as Donnie Tyndall was fired. What if Jim McElwain squeaks out those games against LSU and Texas A&M in October, and Florida doesn’t decide to make a change? Is Dan Mullen the coach in Knoxville on Sunday, and all of this mess is simply avoided?

This is the biggest question:  is what happened this week a good thing for Tennessee long-term? If the problems on The Hill were indeed systemic, changing the balance of power at the top could be a win for Tennessee even as they take a loss in the short-term. That loss has already come in the national media, though their news cycles get continually shorter. That loss may also come on the field for a season or two. But is Tennessee better off today, with Phillip Fulmer at the helm, the fan voice registering, and everyone given a new chance to pull in the same direction? The answer could be yes even if the alternatives were Jeff Brohm, Mike Leach, or another coach we liked working under the previous system.

Faith returns, hope awaits, love abides

This week I have been more grateful than ever for the teams I love (the Celtics and, for a very long time, the Braves) that are well-run organizations. Growing up with the 80’s Celtics, the 90’s Braves, and the Majors/Fulmer Vols, it was easy to have faith in your team and assume they would make good decisions, giving them the very best chance to win.

At Tennessee, I think much of this faith endured among the fan base even when the first half of the last decade could be blamed on circumstance. When the Vols ended up with Butch Jones instead of Charlie Strong five years ago, faith wavered but love remained. Tennessee fans showed up for Teams 117-121.

But it became clear on Sunday fans did not believe in those with decision making power. This could have been a helpless feeling, and perhaps is in other situations it would be; what do you do if you’re, say, a Cleveland Browns fan?

But after a week of raised voices and real threats to stop showing up – in person and in the university’s bank account – a change sparked by a unified fan voice has given us a leader we can believe in. And once more, faith stirs.

We will see about hope. We noted in the middle of last week that despite a lack of faith in this administration, they still might land a coach to provide some degree of hope. Tennessee tried to rebound with Mike Gundy, then Jeff Brohm, then went to a coach who would have struggled in this department in Dave Doeren. Some of the names from previous hot boards might get a second call, others could move up the ladder, and perhaps Fulmer has a surprise or two up his sleeve. Hiring hope can still make a real difference in ticket sales and patience.

But at the end of a remarkable week and the start of a new chapter in Tennessee athletics, love remains. Love for Tennessee was behind the voices lifted in protest on Sunday, and love for Tennessee brought Fulmer to the big chair. The house needs work, and the family may still bicker about the best way to do it, as only family can. But love for Tennessee remains our unifying factor. We will need it, and we will need to continue to pull together in the same direction before we can make room for another trophy case.

But for now, it feels good to be home. On Friday night, there was finally a chance to rest in this search. My wife and I went out to dinner, and I grabbed an orange hat on my way out the door. It felt better on my head than it had in a long time.

Go Vols.