A History of Ranked Match-ups in Knoxville

How special is Sunday’s showdown with North Carolina? Here are the ranked non-conference match-ups in the history of Thompson-Boling Arena:

  • #9 Tennessee 66 #18 Wisconsin 56 on November 21, 2000
  • #16 Tennessee 76 #1 Kansas 68 on January 10, 2010
  • #20 Tennessee vs #7 North Carolina, Sunday

That’s it.

This has been our fault more often than not:  since TBA opened 30 years ago, the Vols have only been ranked in 11 different seasons (shout out, as always, to Tennessee’s media guide for such helpful information). Don DeVoe’s last team was there in 1989, as were Jerry Green’s SEC Champions for all of 2000 and parts of 1999 and 2001. Each of Bruce Pearl’s six squads spent time in the Top 25, including the entire season in 2008 and 2010. And now Rick Barnes has Tennessee back in the Top 25.

In those 11 seasons the Vols have played just 13 total ranked vs. ranked games in Knoxville. Four of them came in a span of seven weeks in 2010. The other nine include three other seasons in the last 17 years. A walk down memory lane:

  • 2000: #11 Tennessee 105 #7 Auburn 76 (January 25) – This was my freshman year at UT, and this was an absolute beat down. Auburn was Sports Illustrated’s preseason pick to win it all, but they were buzz-sawed by Tennessee. Tiger star Chris Porter was in foul trouble early and often, thanks in large part to the play of true freshman Ron Slay.
  • 2000: #8 Tennessee 76 #12 Florida 73 (OT) (February 12) – Having already won a double overtime game in Gainesville, the Vols got the season sweep by beating the Gators in another overtime in Knoxville. This Florida team was led by Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem; Miller played 17 years in the NBA, and Haslem is unbelievably still on Miami’s roster. But C.J. Black got the best of his match-up with Haslem as the Vols won both meetings. The Gators finished third in the SEC East but played their way to the title game of the NCAA Tournament before falling to Michigan State.
  • 2000: #7 Tennessee 74 #18 Kentucky 67 (February 23) – Having finally broken through against Kentucky the year before, Tennessee made it two in a row in Knoxville and helped win a share of the SEC Championship in the regular season. The Vols would earn a four seed in the NCAA Tournament and make the Sweet 16 for the first time since expansion to 64 teams.
  • 2001: #9 Tennessee 66 #18 Wisconsin 56 (November 21, 2000) – Part of a 15-1 start to the season that saw the Vols climb to #4 in the polls, a run which also included…
  • 2001: #4 Tennessee 86 #16 Alabama 69 (January 9) – The Vols started 3-0 in SEC play, lost at Rupp Arena, then beat Mississippi State to get to 4-1. They lost in double overtime at Georiga, lost at #13 Florida, then pounded Vanderbilt by 22 points to stay in the Top 10. Then they lost five games in a row, including:
  • 2001: #22 Kentucky 103 #15 Tennessee 95 (February 14) – …and they lost most of their interest in playing defense. There was a chance to rebound four days later, but…
  • 2001: #11 Florida 88 #15 Tennessee 82 (February 18) – …they did not. Tennessee still made the NCAA Tournament, lost to Charlotte in an 8/9 game in the first round, and Jerry Green was out.
  • 2008: #8 Tennessee 85 #16 Ole Miss 83 (January 9) – Bruce Pearl’s first two teams never got to play in a ranked match-up in Knoxville, but the 2008 squad was tested on the opening night of SEC play. The Rebels were undefeated coming into this one, and erased a 12-point Tennessee lead to take a four point advantage with two minutes to play. With the game on the line, the Vols went to Tyler Smith and he cashed in.
  • 2008: #6 Tennessee 80 #16 Vanderbilt 60 (January 17) – Sure, Vanderbilt beat the Vols when they were #1 a little later this season. But this one in Knoxville remains one of the best games I’ve ever seen Tennessee play against a good team. Wayne Chism had 18 points and 18 rebounds and the Vols held Vanderbilt to 3-of-21 from the arc while forcing 22 turnovers.
  • 2010: #16 Tennessee 76 #1 Kansas 68 (January 10) – On another Sunday afternoon eight seasons ago….here’s a strange thought:  freshmen in the student section this Sunday night were in elementary school when the Vols pulled this one off. Nine days after three players were suspended and Tyler Smith was dismissed for having guns and drugs in a vehicle (and two days before Lane Kiffin left in the middle of the night), a ragtag group of Volunteers played the game of their lives against the #1 Jayhawks. Renaldo Woolridge hit three threes in the first half, and Skyler McBee provided a shot for the ages in the final minute as the shot clock expired. One of the biggest wins in the history of Tennessee basketball. Video highlightsPostgame Story from RTT
  • 2010: #6 Tennessee 71 #21 Ole Miss 69 (OT) (January 16) – Still short-handed six days later, the Vols got 26 points and 12 rebounds from Wayne Chism to continue a remarkable run.
  • 2010: #21 Vanderbilt 85 #14 Tennessee 76 (January 27) – For all their accomplishments, the 2010 Vols could not handle Vanderbilt. The Dores – en route to a four seed in the NCAA Tournament – won in Knoxville by nine and in Nashville by 19.
  • 2010: #19 Tennessee 74 #2 Kentucky 65 (February 27) – The Kansas win was special, but on this day the Vols not only beat one of the most talented teams to ever play in TBA, but put the brand of basketball on display that would carry them to the doorstep of the Final Four one month later. The John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins Wildcats in John Calipari’s first season were 27-1 coming into Knoxville, but left 27-2 thanks to 2-of-22 shooting from the three-point line. The Vols got 20 from J.P. Prince and 15 from Scotty Hopson, who hit a three with the shot clock winding down in the final minute to put the Vols up five. I don’t know of another team the Vols have faced at TBA that started two future NBA All-Stars. Tennessee finished the game on a 9-0 run to break a 65-65 tie.

It’s unfortunate that we’ve only played 13 of these games in 30 years. But the good news:  Tennessee is 10-3 in those games.

Sunday will be special, echoing beyond just what it could mean for this year’s team. Simply getting to this point means Rick Barnes has done what Wade Houston, Kevin O’Neill, Buzz Peterson, Cuonzo Martin, and Donnie Tyndall could not in the regular season. Getting the Vols to stay in college basketball’s national conversation is the next step. No better way to do that than by beating North Carolina on what should be an electric Sunday in Thompson-Boling.

As football moves forward, basketball is making its own moment

Tennessee basketball has come to the aid of Tennessee football at critical junctures twice in the last dozen years. When the football Vols stumbled in the fall of 2005, missing a bowl for the first time since 1988, Bruce Pearl’s first team turned in a two seed in the NCAA Tournament. I remember him saying something like, “This basketball team got us through the winter,” and he was right. And when Lane Kiffin left in the middle of a January night in 2010, Pearl took the Vols to the Elite Eight two months later. I remember Brent Hubbs on the radio, in the immediate aftermath of the Derek Dooley hire, saying something like, “I think Tennessee is a basketball school for a little while.” And he was right.

These last two weeks were a mess for Tennessee football, one that threatened to end up a whole lot worse than having Jeremy Pruitt as head coach and Phillip Fulmer as athletic director. In the midst of such turmoil, it appears Tennessee basketball was once again ready to carry the fan base. Even better, then, is football carrying positive momentum forward while basketball capitalizes on its own moment.

That big stage moment is coming in nine days, when football can (possibly) introduce a head football coach and wow recruits on the final day before the dead period, while basketball hosts North Carolina in a sold-out (and checkered) Thompson-Boling Arena. All that stands between now and then is Lipscomb at 2:15 PM tomorrow.

Like Mercer, Lipscomb is no cupcake:  the Bisons are 128th in KenPom and join Florida Gulf Coast as the runaway favorites in the Atlantic Sun. Though bested by Alabama and Texas by a combined 55 points, Lipscomb beat Belmont twice by a combined 23 points.

The Bisons will go, currently playing the 10th fastest pace in college basketball while averaging 76.6 points per game. That number jumps up to 81.1 if you take out the games against Alabama and Texas; hopefully the Vols will have similar success slowing them down. Tennessee was able to do so against NC State’s faster tempo, but Lipscomb (and then North Carolina) will be an even quicker challenge. And unlike Mercer, Lipscomb won’t face the Vols without their best player:  6’5″ guard Garrison Mathews is averaging 19.6 points while shooting 45.1% from the arc.

The Vols could get caught looking ahead here. But I would rely on what Tennessee is already doing so well this season (numbers from KenPom and Sports Reference):

  • Tennessee is 18th in Ken Pomeroy’s defensive ratings (and 21st in KenPom overall). The Vols are 29th in opponent field goal percentage allowed and eighth nationally in two-point field goal percentage allowed. Other than Villanova, no team has shot better than 38.9% against Tennessee.
  • The Vols are 11th nationally in three-point shooting (!) at 42.6%. Tennessee is 301st nationally in threes attempted, averaging 21.1 per game. This shows Tennessee isn’t forcing things, but getting really good looks (and knocking them down) out of their offense. Jordan Bowden continues to lead the way here, shooting an absurd 64% from the arc on 16-of-25. But Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bone, and Admiral Schofield all also shoot between 42-44% from three.
  • Tennessee is 24th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (37.2%, a big reason they’re rated so highly in KenPom) despite playing a bunch of guys under 6’8″ plus 20 minutes of Kyle Alexander. The 6’11” junior had 57 offensive rebounds in 2016-17. He already has 25 in seven games this season. His maturation is one of the most important storylines to this Tennessee team.
  • In seven games, the Vols have only had 15 of their shots blocked. That’s 5.5% of their shot attempts, the 21st best percentage in the nation. Again:  good offense creates great shot selection. 

It’s not just North Carolina but the SEC that will test the Vols. The league has four teams (including Tennessee) in the KenPom Top 25 and another four in the Top 50. There will be plenty of chances to see exactly how good Tennessee is. But the Vols are already well-versed in strength of schedule, and look like a threat to not just be ranked for a couple weeks as a nice story, but stay in the poll for the long haul.

To do that, and to play their way to the big stage next weekend, they’ll need to go through Lipscomb. 2:15 PM ET Saturday on the SEC Network. It is a joy to have hope in both football and basketball.

Go Vols.

 

Report: USC’s Tyson Helton to be Tennessee’s Offensive Coordinator

Jeremy Pruitt works fast:  VolQuest is reporting Southern Cal passing game coordinator Tyson Helton will be Tennessee’s new offensive coordinator. He will lead an offensive staff including Robert Gillespie staying on with running backs, and Colorado State offensive coordinator Will Friend coming aboard as offensive line coach, plus a familiar face in the secondary:

 

Tyson Helton is the younger brother of the Trojans’ head coach Clay Helton. He has served as USC’s passing game coordinator the last two years.

This is a strange twist of fate for Tee Martin, no doubt, who serves as USC’s offensive coordinator. The former Vol didn’t appear to be among the finalists for Tennessee’s head coaching vacancy, and now one of his colleagues heads to Knoxville as offensive coordinator.

I have no idea what kind of head coach Tee Martin would be; I hope a tremendous one. But Tennessee’s previous coaching staff serves as somewhat of a warning for hires of convenience or friendship. Butch Jones brought almost his entire staff from Cincinnati to Knoxville initially, then made comfort hires at offensive coordinator when change presented itself. Mike DeBord never got the benefit of the doubt at Tennessee, in part for this very reason; he orchestrated the best offense in college football last November. But Larry Scott’s promotion was disastrous for Tennessee and ultimately for Butch Jones. A failure to operate outside of comfort zones on offense and/or the elevation of recruiting over scheme handcuffed Tennessee’s offense.

Tyson Helton is a move in a different direction, in what may be Pruitt’s most important hire.

As Southern Cal’s passing game coordinator, Helton led the Trojans to the eighth-best passing offense in S&P+ this year (see USC’s full advanced statistical profile at Football Study Hall); they finished fourth nationally in the same metric last year. Sam Darnold is eighth nationally in yards per attempt among QBs with 300+ attempts. Helton and Martin obviously did a good job helping Darnold position himself as one of the top picks in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Before joining his brother at USC, Helton worked with another name Tennessee fans have salivated over in the past two weeks:  he was the offensive coordinator under Jeff Brohm at Western Kentucky.

Brohm has been the play-caller at WKU and Purdue, an important point. But Helton’s role as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach helped produce incredible offenses in 2014 and 2015. In 2015 the Hilltopper offense finished fourth nationally in S&P+ (see Western Kentucky’s advanced statistical profile), third in yards per play, and third in points per game. They were fifth and sixth nationally in those last two categories in 2014.

Helton has studied under Brohm and coached a potential number one overall draft pick alongside Tee Martin. Now he’ll get his chance in a bigger role with play-calling responsibilities. It’s a big hire for Jeremy Pruitt, but I like the background, the willingness to go outside the familiar, and the emphasis on scheme.

The Bricks and The Ceiling

I’ve already been wrong about Jeremy Pruitt once. Fourteen months ago, #9 Tennessee and #1 Alabama played the highest-ranked Third Saturday in October ever. The Vols had just dropped 684 yards on Texas A&M, and touched up Georgia’s defenses for 920 yards and 70 points in their last two meetings with Pruitt. Despite a number of injuries against the Aggies, I thought the Vols would beat Alabama and continue their magical season, based largely on what I thought Tennessee’s offense would do against Alabama’s defense.

Instead, most of those injured players didn’t return, and Alabama held Tennessee to 163 yards and 2.59 yards per play. It was the worst yards per play performance by a Tennessee offense in the last ten years…until we played Alabama this year, and got 2.35.

 

The magic ran out for Tennessee on that October day in 2016, and indeed for Butch Jones too. It peaked between the hedges two weeks earlier and at least a dozen narratives ago. After starting 5-0 last year, the Vols are 8-12 in their last 20 games. And the team on the other end of that hail mary looks mighty fine today.

What’s behind the emphasis on defense and discipline?

I’m sure Kirby Smart’s success made all three of Tennessee’s finalists more appealing; Georgia’s head coach would have no doubt been mentioned in the press conference as an example of what could be had the Vols hired Kevin Steele or Mel Tucker, and you can expect to hear it when they’re introducing Jeremy Pruitt. But I wonder if something else was in Tennessee’s motivation to lean in that direction – it was John Currie’s first choice too with Greg Schiano – and not, we know now, because Tee Martin was guaranteed to come in on the offensive side of the ball.

Coaching hires are indeed pendulum swings, so it makes sense to hire a defensive coach after five years of the Butch Jones offense. But the more pressing need (and the more apparent one to those behind the scenes, perhaps) may have been discipline and roster management. How many talented players in significant roles failed to finish their careers at Tennessee under the previous administration? It wasn’t just the weirdness of Jalen Hurd’s story. There’s a long list from Marquez North to Jauan Jennings.

Butch Jones knew how to recruit elite talent, but coaching it and keeping it were not his strong suits. This was an unchecked box for some candidates as well, but having spent the last five years as the defensive coordinator at Florida State, Georgia, and Alabama, it does not appear to be an issue for Jeremy Pruitt.

Are we better off?

The default position for Tennessee fans will be, “Yes.” And I might agree even if I wasn’t one.

Moving on from an athletic director who was so out of touch with both football and the fan base that Greg Schiano was his go-to choice, then replacing him with Phillip Fulmer? That still feels like a win on its own. Is Tennessee better off with Fulmer and Jeremy Pruitt than they would have been with Currie and Mike Leach? I don’t know how that answer will play itself out on fall Saturdays in the near future. But considering Leach was the emergency option for Currie only after missing on Dave Doeren? I would still take Pruitt and Fulmer’s leadership.

I remain hopeful Tennessee’s revolt against the Schiano pick and the resulting power shift will be a good thing long-term. In the short-term, Pruitt is as good as Tennessee and Fulmer had any right to do after this crazy set of days.

A ceiling hire

There are no sure things in this business, and throwing money at the problem is no guarantee. Florida State, one of the few jobs clearly better than ours even when we are at our best, just hired a coach who was in the third tier of many of our initial hot boards. And they hired him in a hurry. Some Tennessee fans better hope they were right about Dan Mullen.

However, even unable to lure a proven winner, even after a fan uprising and a change in athletic director, and even after the worst season in program history…Tennessee still made a ceiling hire. And I’m very impressed with this.

The Vols could have taken the safe option and hired Les Miles, or the easy option and hired Tee Martin. Both would have been very well received initially and sold their fair share of tickets. But the Vols, despite everything, still made a hire with their eyes on the biggest prize. Credit Fulmer, who would know about such things.

To be clear, there are risks. It might be that Jeremy Pruitt is an excellent defensive coordinator and a lousy head coach. We don’t know. Butch Jones had a higher floor (or so we all thought at the time). But Pruitt has a higher ceiling than both Jones and Derek Dooley on the day they took this job. And he probably has a higher ceiling than Les Miles in 2017.

This search was a mess. It will take time to fully digest, and it will stay in the news, and not just because of lawyers. If Pruitt struggles early or often, Tennessee fans will get some of the blame. That narrative is already alive and well and will be convenient for some in the national media to return to. The same unity that sparked all of this will be necessary in the months ahead.

But at the search’s end, Tennessee still hired a coach it believes can win the biggest prize here. I’m not sure they could say that with a straight face at the last two press conferences. And since it will be Fulmer’s face this time, there’s all the more reason to believe it.

Tennessee at Georgia Tech Preview

One more reason this weekend was a great time to take a breath on the coaching search:  you can pay attention to the best thing on campus right now.

The basketball Vols are 26th in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, a far more valid early season rating than RPI…but, hey, the Vols are currently 16th in RPI. In the December update at the Bracket Matrix, the Vols are an eight seed. So far, so good.

Georgia Tech took some of the sting out of Sunday’s contest by losing to Grambling at home on an own-goal tip-in on Friday.

The Yellow Jackets have lived dangerously all year:  three-point loss to UCLA, three-point win over Bethune-Cookman, one-point win over Northwestern along with Friday’s one-point loss. One year ago this weekend, Tennessee played one of their best games of the season in blitzing Georgia Tech 81-58 in Knoxville. The Vols shot 52.8% from the field and 6-of-11 (54.5%) from the arc.

Georgia Tech was 4-3 at that point, but played their way onto the bubble. The Yellow Jackets were 15-10 (6-6) on February 11, but lost five of their last seven. In the NIT they played their way to New York, falling to TCU in the championship game.

The Vols so far:  defense and open threes

Tennessee has only taken 128 threes; 21.3 per game is more than last year, but the total is still only good for 274th nationally. But they are typically good-to-great looks:  Tennessee is shooting 43% from the arc, 16th in the country.

It doesn’t surprise to see Grant Williams (16.5 ppg) and Admiral Schofield (12.0 ppg) atop Tennessee’s leaderboard. What is interesting is the early separation Jordan Bowden has achieved:  10.7 points in 26.7 minutes (second-best on the team behind Williams), and 14-of-23 (60.9%) from the arc. Last year Bowden was a 31.5% shooter from deep. I’m sure he won’t shoot 60.9% all year, but key differences are already emerging:  Tennessee is successfully running more of its offense through Grant Williams inside, and getting great play from Jordan Bone (3.2 assists) and James Daniel (4.7 assists). As a result, Bowden is getting a bunch of really good looks, and he is taking full advantage.

Meanwhile, the Vol defense has ensured Tennessee can win games even when the shots aren’t dropping. When not playing Villanova, Tennessee is giving up just 36.5% from the floor. Even including the game against the Wildcats (who shot 46%), the Vols are still 36th nationally in field goal percentage defense. Rick Barnes is sure to like that.

Georgia Tech:  a three-headed attack

Freshman guard Jose Alvarado averages 14.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game for Josh Pastner’s squad. Fellow guard Tadric Jackson averages 14.3 and six rebounds, and 6’10” Ben Lammers gets 14.2 points and 8.2 rebounds while playing 35+ minutes. Keep an eye on Curtis Haywood II from the arc (12-of-22 so far this year), but those three represent a majority of GT’s productivity.

Tennessee has proven they can compete and win against a number of different styles early, from Purdue’s size to Villanova’s guards and NC State’s up-tempo game. It’s the opposite Sunday in Atlanta:  Georgia Tech is 337th in tempo, averaging only 63.5 points per game.

It’s a big chance to continue the early season momentum, and getting through the Yellow Jackets would leave only Lipscomb between now and a showdown with North Carolina on December 17. For that to be a big day in Knoxville in two weeks, the Vols need a big night in Atlanta tonight.

6:00 PM ET, ESPNU. Go Vols.

 

Feels Like Home

When Tennessee’s search came up empty in Raleigh on Thursday morning, it seemed like two options were available. The Vols could press pause, take a breath after the events of an unprecedented week, and reset the board. Or the Vols could press on, try to make a hire as quickly as possible to change the narrative, and “settle” for a down-the-board unproven.

Thursday afternoon, John Currie instead went for door number three: let’s get Mike Leach, and let’s get weird. In their desperation, they turned to a man they didn’t fully understand. And what a grand experiment this would have been.

Then on Friday morning, weird and unprecedented collided head-on. And on Friday afternoon, at the end of our most insane week at the end of our most insane decade…on Friday afternoon, Tennessee found its way home.

To be clear, the house needs a lot of work. The brick-by-brick renovations looked good for a moment, but ultimately had to be torn down. But today, Phillip Fulmer is the athletic director, and Tennessee feels like home.

This has to be the culmination of the insanity.

We throw “rock bottom” around too often; at the end of the program’s first 4-8 season it’s easy to do. The Vols may continue to struggle on the field in the short-term, and no athletic program of this size and stature runs without drama. But if Tennessee is going to move forward in a meaningful way, Friday has to be the end of the madness.

Tennessee forced Fulmer out at the tail end of the 2008 season, one year after he won 10 games and his fifth division title. They replaced him with Lane Kiffin. Since then:

  • Kiffin left in the middle of the night to take the Southern Cal job after just one season in January 2010.
  • The Vols hired Derek Dooley fresh off a 4-8 season at Louisiana Tech.
  • Bruce Pearl took the basketball program to its first Elite Eight in March 2010, then lost his job one year later, in part for lying about a photograph taken at a BBQ, for which he received a three-year show cause.
  • Derek Dooley was fired after three years by Dave Hart, who replaced Mike Hamilton as athletic director. The Vols had Charlie Strong, then didn’t, and ended up hiring Butch Jones.
  • Cuonzo Martin took the Vols to the Sweet 16 in 2014, then left for California after a low-ball offer from Dave Hart, who chose not to denounce an in-season petition for Bruce Pearl’s return.
  • Hart hired Donnie Tyndall in April 2014. In November, the NCAA announced an investigation into his time at Southern Miss. He was fired after one season in Knoxville.
  • Hart retired, in part due to the university’s involvement in a Title IX lawsuit alleging a culture of rape at Tennessee, as did chancellor Jimmy Cheek. Beverly Davenport replaced Cheek, then hired John Currie to replace Dave Hart.
  • Butch Jones signed a pair of Top 10 recruiting classes in 2014 and 2015, but coached that talent to only a pair of 9-4 seasons in 2015 and 2016. Tennessee lost to Florida in inexplicable fashion in 2014, 2015, and 2017, failed to win the SEC East despite beating Florida and Georgia in 2016, and missed a chance to make a New Year’s Six bowl by losing to Vanderbilt. In 2017 the Vols fell apart and finished 4-8 for the first time in program history. Jones was fired.

And then, this week.

People smarter than me, including Phillip Fulmer, will tell you Tennessee has suffered on the field and court in large part because they suffered in the board room:  the administration, the athletic department, and influential boosters playing too much tug-of-war. With Fulmer at the helm in the AD, Tennessee must start exerting the majority of its might toward the same goals. And Fulmer at the helm gives Tennessee a better chance to do so than we’ve seen in the last decade.

The long-term became more important this week.

When Tennessee lost to South Carolina and change was moving from possible to probable, this still seemed like a short-term fix. Tennessee’s senior class is small and there are still plenty of recruiting stars on the roster, unlike the turnover we saw from Kiffin-to-Dooley and Dooley-to-Butch. The Vols won nine games in 2015 and 2016, and were ranked for the first three weeks of this season. Hire the right coach and they might come in and sustain the level Butch Jones enjoyed, then hopefully level up.

Since then the Vols lost to Kentucky and were non-competitive in the second half with Missouri, LSU, and Vanderbilt. Two offensive linemen who would have been starters next year will no longer be on the team in 2018, plus a five-star legacy lineman opened up his recruitment. A legitimate conversation about whether to keep Butch Jones if he went 8-4 quickly turned into a 4-8 season, and an understanding that whoever was next would have multi-year work to do to get Tennessee back.

But as this week spiraled out of control, it became clear Tennessee’s long-term future was at stake. And it became clear this wasn’t a problem to be solved simply by making the right hire for the football team.

Friday morning, it felt like Tennessee football was more vulnerable than at any point in my lifetime. Even when the Vols hired Derek Dooley and you knew things would be bad for a couple of years, Tennessee was still just two seasons removed from an SEC East title and eight years removed from the doorstep of the BCS Championship Game. The program was relevant in a way that could (and did) survive Dooley, and survive a three-year recruiting failure from 2007-09.

But now, on the heels of 4-8 and with such instability in the athletic department, Tennessee’s long-term future was in jeopardy. At the end of a difficult decade, the perception quickly became that continuing to march to the beat of the same drum – one that thought Greg Schiano was the best option – would prevent Tennessee from getting healthy. And thus Currie is out, Fulmer is in, and the Haslams’ power seems diminished, with fan voices singing their approval.

An underrated variable in this whole equation is timing, something which finally worked in Tennessee’s favor in basketball when Rick Barnes became available as Donnie Tyndall was fired. What if Jim McElwain squeaks out those games against LSU and Texas A&M in October, and Florida doesn’t decide to make a change? Is Dan Mullen the coach in Knoxville on Sunday, and all of this mess is simply avoided?

This is the biggest question:  is what happened this week a good thing for Tennessee long-term? If the problems on The Hill were indeed systemic, changing the balance of power at the top could be a win for Tennessee even as they take a loss in the short-term. That loss has already come in the national media, though their news cycles get continually shorter. That loss may also come on the field for a season or two. But is Tennessee better off today, with Phillip Fulmer at the helm, the fan voice registering, and everyone given a new chance to pull in the same direction? The answer could be yes even if the alternatives were Jeff Brohm, Mike Leach, or another coach we liked working under the previous system.

Faith returns, hope awaits, love abides

This week I have been more grateful than ever for the teams I love (the Celtics and, for a very long time, the Braves) that are well-run organizations. Growing up with the 80’s Celtics, the 90’s Braves, and the Majors/Fulmer Vols, it was easy to have faith in your team and assume they would make good decisions, giving them the very best chance to win.

At Tennessee, I think much of this faith endured among the fan base even when the first half of the last decade could be blamed on circumstance. When the Vols ended up with Butch Jones instead of Charlie Strong five years ago, faith wavered but love remained. Tennessee fans showed up for Teams 117-121.

But it became clear on Sunday fans did not believe in those with decision making power. This could have been a helpless feeling, and perhaps is in other situations it would be; what do you do if you’re, say, a Cleveland Browns fan?

But after a week of raised voices and real threats to stop showing up – in person and in the university’s bank account – a change sparked by a unified fan voice has given us a leader we can believe in. And once more, faith stirs.

We will see about hope. We noted in the middle of last week that despite a lack of faith in this administration, they still might land a coach to provide some degree of hope. Tennessee tried to rebound with Mike Gundy, then Jeff Brohm, then went to a coach who would have struggled in this department in Dave Doeren. Some of the names from previous hot boards might get a second call, others could move up the ladder, and perhaps Fulmer has a surprise or two up his sleeve. Hiring hope can still make a real difference in ticket sales and patience.

But at the end of a remarkable week and the start of a new chapter in Tennessee athletics, love remains. Love for Tennessee was behind the voices lifted in protest on Sunday, and love for Tennessee brought Fulmer to the big chair. The house needs work, and the family may still bicker about the best way to do it, as only family can. But love for Tennessee remains our unifying factor. We will need it, and we will need to continue to pull together in the same direction before we can make room for another trophy case.

But for now, it feels good to be home. On Friday night, there was finally a chance to rest in this search. My wife and I went out to dinner, and I grabbed an orange hat on my way out the door. It felt better on my head than it had in a long time.

Go Vols.

 

Hire Hope

Hope is valuable.

The Powers That Be at Tennessee haven’t given us much reason to believe they will make a good decision in this situation. Not only were they completely out of touch in almost hiring Greg Schiano, they believed Schiano was a more valuable candidate than Mike Gundy, Jeff Brohm, and any number of other options available before everything got nuts on Sunday. It was a stunningly poor move on both a football and a fan relations front, one John Currie will have a long and difficult road to recover from, if he still can.

What do you do when you can’t trust the thing you love to make good decisions?

When the Vols hired Butch Jones, Tennessee’s faith was tested. But we could hope the coach who went 9-3 the last two years at Cincinnati with a pair of shared division titles could grow into the role at Tennessee. And fans showed up, early and often and even late into his final season, because we love Tennessee and we tried to love Butch Jones.

It’s been five years, only about 365 days of which, from one October to the next in 2015-2016, felt like a real return on the investment. The last year was the worst in school history.

We’re all here because we love Tennessee. What we need is hope.

And what we’re losing by the hour is faith in the decision makers.

I actually liked swinging and missing on Mike Gundy; it was a serious play for a serious coach. I don’t know what happened with Jeff Brohm, but fan reaction to the possibility/momentary probability should be educational for the decision makers, if they’re willing to listen.

It’s not exclusive to hiring Tee Martin. You certainly don’t have to hire Lane Kiffin. But you have to hire hope.

When faith seems non-existent, love gets very difficult. When you’ve already shown up for a decade now and been met with only disappointment, it gets more difficult to write the check for tickets. When you don’t believe those in charge are making good decisions about the future of the program, it gets more difficult to show up to support the program.

Tennessee needs hope. And even if there is little faith in the decision makers long-term, they can still make a hire that provides hope today.

Jeff Brohm would have done that, but he’s not the only one. Tee Martin would do that in a different way, but he’s not the only one either. Again:  we hoped in Butch Jones. It can be done.

As one example, consider the difference between Chad Morris and Dave Doeren.

Chad Morris took over an SMU team that went 1-11 in 2014. He went 2-10, then 5-7, then 7-5. Before that he was the architect of the Clemson offense from 2011-14. I don’t know if Chad Morris would be a good coach at Tennessee. But there is reason to hope. (There’s also reason to enjoy an offense that’s currently seventh nationally in S&P+ and 16th in yards per play. If you hire Chad Morris, you take some of that Mike Gundy money and buy a defensive coordinator.)

Chad Morris wouldn’t have been anyone’s first choice, before or after Sunday. But there is reason to hope.

It is simply a much harder sell with a more known entity like Dave Doeren.

Dave Doeren is the guy NC State hoped would make a difference. After a 3-9 first season, Doeren went 8-5, 7-6, 7-6, and is 8-4 this year. Tom O’Brien’s last three years at NC State:  9-4, 8-5, 7-5.

Chad Morris (and Jeff Brohm, and Tee Martin, and a bunch of other guys) is an unknown. He might be good. He might not be. But I can hope.

We already know much more about Dave Doeren. Another power conference school (and one with a lower standard of success, traditionally) already hoped he was the guy to move them forward, and so far he has only achieved the same things his predecessor did before being fired.

It is simply much, much harder to hope in Dave Doeren than an unknown.

Consider this as well:  five of Tennessee’s first seven games next year are vs West Virginia, Florida, at Georgia, at Auburn, and Alabama. That is a challenge, to say the least. If Tennessee takes a beating in some or all of those games, who do you want to take that beating?

If it’s Tee Martin, the narrative is patience. I have no idea if Tee Martin would be a successful coach at Tennessee if he took the job right now, but I do know no one would get more patience from the fan base. If he starts 2-5 and finishes below .500 his first year, fans would handle it much better. But they will also handle it better if it’s someone like Chad Morris, someone who walks in the door with more hope. Tennessee is likely to struggle next season no matter who is wearing the headset. But they’re 2-5 with Dave Doeren, he will get far less benefit of the doubt because he will inherit far less hope. Even though one year on the job doesn’t prove much of anything, some will say they’re already out on Dave Doeren because deep down they were out on him from day one. I fear Tennessee needs more hope than he can currently provide.

Hope isn’t just about morale. It’s about ticket sales and patience. It’s about keeping love alive even when faith is dormant. Reasonable fans – which I always believe are the vast majority of Tennessee’s paying customers – will always be invested if you give them hope.

(Also, in the hope department:  Les Miles. It is baffling to me that he can’t even get an interview. It’s easy to view this as a crisis, which makes one look for safety, and Les Miles is the safest pick on the board. I can easily find hope in Les Miles.)

If the Vols hire Doeren, I will support him. I won’t take it out on him. But hope will be more difficult to come by at a time when Tennessee needs it most. And patience will wear thinner, faster at a time when Tennessee is likely to need more of it.

Even if we lack faith in the decision makers, they might be able to see how such a hire is beneficial to them too. With Tennessee’s name in the national sports news for reasons they don’t like, I’m sure it’s tempting to just hire someone and try to move on. But it is far better for those decision makers in the long run to not panic, at least listen to the people, and make a hire they can find hope in. The longer we can hope, the longer we’re invested. And, in this case, the more time they might buy for themselves before the unrest skips right over the head coach and goes to the top of the ladder. It’s already there tonight. But there is still time to make a hopeful hire that benefits both them and the fans.

The conversations about why we have no faith in the decision makers needs to take place anyway. But Tennessee also needs a football coach; even if not tonight, relatively soon. There are still good options out there. You don’t have to panic. And you should never underestimate the value of hope.

 

Tennessee vs Mercer Preview

This preview brought to you by, “I can’t just keep refreshing the message boards.”

Tennessee had a good enough week in the Bahamas to enter the also receiving votes portion of both polls:  34th in the AP, 46th in the Coaches’, plus 34th in KenPom. The Vols are also 34th in RPI, which doesn’t mean much this early in the year, but are currently projected to end the season with an RPI of 52 by RPI Forecast. That projection is fluid too, it’s noteworthy that their projections also include the Vols going just .500 in the SEC and still flirting with the RPI Top 50.

The league is much, much stronger this year, with eight teams in the KenPom Top 50 right now. Again, RPI is fluid this early, but right now the SEC is the best conference in college basketball by their ratings. Going 9-9 in this SEC will be a much bigger challenge and a much better accomplishment (also, much more entertaining to watch over 18 games).

We’ll get to all that later, I point all this out simply to show how the conversation has already changed after Tennessee’s wins over #18 Purdue and NC State, plus a close call with #5 Villanova. One-sixth of the way through the regular season, and it’s less about, “Can Tennessee be a bubble team?” and more of, “How can this team play its way above the cut line?”

That blueprint not only includes .500-or-better ball in the SEC and probably splitting the major non-conference games remaining (at Georgia Tech this Saturday, vs North Carolina December 17, at Wake Forest December 23, at Iowa State in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge). It also includes taking care of the mid-major business you should take care of…and the toughest of those challenges will be tonight.

Mercer is 85th in KenPom, the best team in the Southern Conference by a healthy margin in those ratings. They have a pair of nine-point losses to Central Florida and Colorado around five low-ranking victories. Last year they disappointed at 15-17, but returned four of their five leading scorers.

The name to know tonight is Ria’n Holland, if he plays after missing the last game with an ankle injury. The 6’0″ guard averages 20.2 points per game and is 21-of-37 (56.8%) from the arc this year. The next leading scorer averages nearly 10 points less per game.

This is an experienced Mercer bunch, but so are the Vols. This game should be as much about Tennessee’s fight against complacency and inconsistency as Mercer – if the Vols are going where they want to go, they’ll go through Mercer in Knoxville.

7:00 PM ET, SEC Network+ online.

Familiar Faces, Up-and-Comers, and Second Chances

The relationship between Tennessee’s decision makers and Tennessee’s fan base is at an all-time low, at a moment when Tennessee’s football program just concluded its all-time worst season.

Things are bad. How can Tennessee make them better?

We’ll get to how a good hire would help in a minute. But first, the relationship itself.

Fans don’t usually get to be the decision makers, which is what made yesterday’s events so remarkable. A diverse cross-section of Tennessee fans, local politicians, former players, and local media raised their voices in varying degrees of negativity on the impending hire of Greg Schiano. Our combined noise became the sound of change. The powers that be made their choice, but the people got the last word. And not at the end of a season’s worth of protests, but in a matter of hours.

The list of Tennessee’s decision makers, in this case, seems to be exceptionally short. John Currie played this search close to the vest to ensure secrecy, but far too close to ensure receptivity. I applaud his ninja skills; they simply would have come in far more handy if paired with any ability to take the pulse of the fan base.

The fact that Currie, Chancellor Davenport, however many Haslams and whoever else was on the short list believed this was both a right and acceptable hire for Tennessee is beyond alarming. When those making the decisions are so out of touch with the people, you get new decisions and, perhaps, new decision makers. It just happened a lot faster yesterday.

I don’t want Tennessee’s next coach to be decided by a vote of the fan base. I assume the powers that be have access to information I do not. This turned out to be the case six years ago, when Tennessee went against the vast majority of fan opinion and fired Bruce Pearl. I argued the Vols should keep him in the face of up to a one-year show-cause. Turns out he was looking at three. The powers that be made the right move then, even when it was unpopular.

Tennessee’s decision makers don’t need to act on every request from the voice of the fan base. But they do need to hear it. And they need to know it well enough to recognize and, in Schiano’s case, predict it. If you are so out of touch you couldn’t see this reaction coming, this isn’t a functional relationship.

John Currie’s statement today didn’t do anything to repair this relationship. At an obviously crucial juncture, what Currie essentially chose to communicate today was that he worked hard on this search, did thoroughly research Schiano (including Penn State), and actually knew him well. But he clearly doesn’t know the fan base well.

At some point between now and a press conference introducing Tennessee’s next head football coach, it is a very good idea for John Currie to address the media. Hold a separate press conference, do an interview, something. You cannot answer questions (or refuse to answer questions) about Schiano for the first time when you’re supposed to be introducing the next guy. It’s unfair to the coach, the fans, and the media. No coach should be asked to sign up for that. Even if Currie is non-confrontational by nature, now is the moment for maturity.

When we do get around to hiring a new coach? Tennessee would appear to have a few options.

The Familiar Faces

  • David Cutcliffe, Duke (reportedly staying at Duke as I type)
  • Tee Martin, Southern Cal offensive coordinator

Both would scratch an itch many in the fan base have had since Phillip Fulmer was forced out nine years ago. These are our guys.

More than a feel-good story, if Tennessee’s brand has in fact been significantly damaged by the events of this weekend, securing someone with a direct connection to the university may be the smartest play. There are plenty of jobs open and plenty of situations that will look more stable than ours. Cutcliffe and/or Martin may in fact be Tennessee’s best play.

As the one was the other’s offensive coordinator at Tennessee, they are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Cutcliffe is 63 years old and spent six seasons at Ole Miss as a younger man, fired far too soon. Since leaving Tennessee a second time Cutcliffe has been at Duke, putting together a remarkable run including five bowl appearances in the last six years and a division title in 2013. (As I was typing this, Chris Low reported Cutcliffe informed Tennessee he would be staying at Duke).

Martin has been at Southern Cal since 2012, serving as offensive coordinator the last two years. The Trojans are 16th in offensive S&P+ this year, 15th in yards per play. His name was attached to Jon Gruden’s fantasy staff for both his role as an OC but also his recruiting prowess. He knows Rocky Top, but has no head coaching experience. With both, you’re selling family.

The Up-and-Comers

  • Jeff Brohm, Purdue
  • Willie Taggart, Oregon
  • Chad Morris, SMU
  • Jeremy Pruitt, Alabama defensive coordinator

A few days ago, this was the tier below Dan Mullen. Now this could be where Tennessee finds its best play. Brohm and Taggart are at power five schools, but both are just finishing their first year. Morris, the former Clemson offensive coordinator, is finishing his third season at SMU in taking the program from 2-10 to 7-5. Pruitt has led some of the nation’s best defenses at Florida State, Georgia, and Alabama in the last five years, but has never been a head coach.

The sample sizes are small, and with that comes uncertainty. Brohm won two conference titles in three years at Western Kentucky following in Taggart’s footsteps, then got Purdue from 3-9 to 6-6 on the field, from 105th to 41st in S&P+. Taggart went 7-5 at Oregon after a 4-1 start before quarterback Justin Herbert was injured.

What you’re selling here is hope that early successful returns will lead to more of the same at Tennessee and in the SEC. All of these guys might be a good head coach in this league, or none of them. But there is enough reason to hope. (The most difficult name to sell I’ve seen on a hot board is Dave Doeren, who VolQuest had listed at the bottom of theirs today. Doeren is the guy NC State hoped would take them to the next level, but the last four years is 8-5, 7-6, 7-6, and 8-4. That may be fine for NC State, even if it’s awfully similar to what Tom O’Brien did, but there would be little to hope for in terms of someone like him doing more at Tennessee. Hope, even in the midst of uncertainty, is a far easier and more important sell.)

The Rick Barnes

  • Les Miles, former LSU coach

When all of this started two weeks ago, I wondered at the end of our podcast about why Les Miles couldn’t even make a hot board. Proven winner, power conference, no buyout, great recruiter. These were more hopeful days of Gruden and Frost, so we didn’t spend much time on it, but it seemed strange to me. At this point, it might seem foolish if Tennessee didn’t include him in their search.

Tennessee has always been more than one step away from a national championship in this search; that truth is easier to swallow when you’re past your top choices. I’m not sure Les Miles could win a championship at Tennessee. But could he help this program take its next step? Is he the best option now that we’re at this point? I could buy it.

You may have your favorites out of these list, or might want to include another name or two from this tier. But all of them are guys fans could and would rally around, especially after last weekend. All of them would have important strengths. All of them could give us reason to hope.

I don’t know what the right move is for the powers that be. The choices aren’t as sexy as the first time around. But getting a good fit with greater transparency is a critical step for a fragile football team and a fragile relationship between the administration and the fans.

 

What are we cheering for?

Tennessee and Greg Schiano are reportedly in end stage contract talks for the Ohio State defensive coordinator to become the next coach in Knoxville. It may be finalized by the time I finish typing this post.

Schiano’s name came up here and there in this search, but no one’s name earned much real traction due to the secrecy athletic director John Currie operated with. We mentioned Schiano as a name generating some level of interest early on, as his profile generated the third-most clicks on our coaching hot board. As I noted at the time, his on-field record at Rutgers is noteworthy, as has been the performance of Ohio State’s defense. Later that same week I mentioned him as a dark horse candidate on Sports 180 (from November 17), again based on pageviews we were seeing.

In both places, we questioned the fit. I noted on the radio that I couldn’t find anyone who thought Schiano coming to Tennessee was a good idea.

In hindsight, I wish I had been more direct and less interested in being nice. And I think many of us who put our fingers to the keyboard about Tennessee simply didn’t spend more time on Schiano because we never really thought it would happen.

The questions about Schiano’s hire are not about his won/loss record. He was clearly a good coach at Rutgers and is a good defensive coordinator now at Ohio State, no matter how many games he won or lost in the NFL with Tampa Bay.

The questions about Schiano’s hire are not about Jon Gruden. No matter your level of belief in the #Grumors, if Jon Gruden married a cheerleader from Alabama instead and owned land in Tuscaloosa County, the uproar over Schiano would be and should be the same.

And the questions about Schiano’s hire are not about who else we could or could not get. Dan Mullen at Florida and Scott Frost at Nebraska is a tough blow. It would appear we swung and missed at bigger fish. We’ve already been underwhelmed with the announcement, twice. Many of us didn’t even know who Derek Dooley was a week before he was hired, and Butch Jones was met with something less than a lukewarm reception. Fans ultimately rallied around both well before their first game. This isn’t that.

You cannot hire Greg Schiano.

This is why, from The Washington Post in July of last year:

Former Penn State assistant coaches Greg Schiano and Tom Bradley knew that Jerry Sandusky, their colleague on Joe Paterno’s football staff, was acting improperly with young boys years before law-enforcement authorities were first notified, according to testimony from former Penn State assistant Mike McQueary that was unsealed Tuesday by a Philadelphia court.

Schiano denied the allegations. I don’t know who is telling what percentage of the truth. But the gravity of the situation cannot be ignored or glossed over at an introductory press conference.

Without the Penn State questions, there’s a laundry list of off-the-field questions from his tenure at Tampa Bay. With them, this is not a hire Tennessee can make. It would not be a hire Tennessee could make even if it wasn’t coming off a Title IX lawsuit.

As fans, we want to win. “Will it help us win?” is John Currie’s mission statement. But some things still do matter more than winning.

In college athletics, if not all sports, you cannot divorce the team from the coach. Rooting for your team ultimately and always means rooting for your coach. Even if you don’t like them personally or they’re not always the best fit, their success is almost always in the best interests of the program you care about so much.

Hiring Schiano with these allegations is not worth even the best case scenario on the field. Because he’s a good coach, he might win here. He might even win big. But you cannot divorce the coach from the team.

Cheering for your team means defending your coach, and good grief, I have defended Butch Jones. I have defended Derek Dooley. And I have defended Lane Kiffin. That’s quite a trio. I once argued Bruce Pearl should stay at Tennessee even if he received a show-cause up to a year. It’s what we do as fans, often to a fault.

I cannot defend Greg Schiano. I cannot minimize the allegations from Penn State. Tennessee fans will not.

This isn’t professional rabble-rousing. Negative reaction to Schiano isn’t the worst of the Tennessee fan base. It’s the better judgment of Tennessee’s human beings.

Tennessee has been trying to get this right for ten years. At the end of those ten years, we just finished the worst season in school history, winless in the SEC for the first time in the history of the league. We know disappointment and we know impatience better than most. Both of them, at times, bring out the worst in a fan base like ours.

And make no mistake:  today is not helpful for the program even if Schiano and the Vols ultimately and wisely walk away. John Currie’s power will have eroded, the list of those interested in this job will shrink, and the negotiating power will shift hard to the coach and agent. We are likely to end up further down the list with a bigger buyout.

But I will lose for ten more years while defending a coach I can believe in with a clear conscience before will-it-help-us-winning-it with Greg Schiano.

I have loved Tennessee all my life. And I believe in Tennessee, and believe it is bigger than even its athletic director. Even if today has ensured a better tomorrow is a few steps further away, I am hopeful Tennessee will come about that tomorrow in a better way.

Go Vols.