Author Archives: Will Shelton

2017-18 saw the deepest SEC of all-time, with eight NCAA Tournament teams breaking the old conference record of six. The championship banner Tennessee and Auburn will hang is the greatest testament to the quality of their seasons.

Seven of those eight tournament teams had a favorable seed in the opening round; only Alabama was truly on the bubble. Six SEC teams won in the first round. It was in the second round when things got crazy. Kentucky, the league’s bluest blood, beat 13-seed Buffalo by 20. Florida, a six seed, lost to three seed Texas Tech by three points. Everything else? Tennessee lost to 11-seed Loyola-Chicago on a semi-miraculous bounce with three seconds to play. Alabama lost to Villanova by 23 points; Auburn lost to Clemson by 31. And Texas A&M beat two seed North Carolina by 21.

The Cats and Aggies then bowed out in the Sweet 16, leaving the league with zero teams in the Elite Eight one year after putting three in the regional finals. The Big 12 added to their claim as the nation’s best conference with three teams in the Elite Eight, followed by the ACC with two.

But while the lasting SEC memory from 2017-18 is depth, the league has also positioned itself to continue to evolve.

Three SEC teams were in the 2017-18 preseason AP poll: the usual suspects from Kentucky and Florida in the Top 10, plus Texas A&M sneaking in at #25. In the first round of Way Too Early Top 25s for 2019?

• Molly Geary at Sports Illustrated has six SEC teams in the Top 25, three in the Top 10.
• Gary Parrish at CBS has five SEC teams in the Top 20, with Auburn, Tennessee, and Kentucky ranked four, five, and six.
• Myron Medcalf at ESPN also has five SEC teams in the Top 20, with the same three in the top eight.
• Ryan Fagan at Sporting News has six SEC teams in the Top 25.
• Mike Rutherford at SB Nation has six SEC teams in the Top 25, five in the Top 20, and those same three in the Top 10.

You get the idea. Behind Tennessee, Auburn, and Kentucky is a Mississippi State program looking to cash in, star-studded freshman classes at LSU and Vanderbilt, and more of the same from Florida and Texas A&M. A team like Arkansas would have been the third or fourth best in the league almost by default five years ago. Now they might not make the top ten.

As it relates to Tennessee, the league should be tougher than ever…but it should also represent the best opportunity on the Vols’ resume. Much of UT’s case this year was made by beating Purdue and almost beating Villanova and North Carolina. But what we know of the non-conference schedule for next season doesn’t have as many opportunities. Home-and-homes with Wake Forest and Georgia Tech haven’t panned out as both programs have struggled. It’s great to have the Memphis rivalry back in our lives, but I’m not sure it’ll be a resume builder in Penny Hardaway’s first season. And the Vols are in the preseason NIT next year with Kansas, Louisville, and Marquette, but only the Jayhawks will be considered a national threat in the preseason.

We’ll see who the Vols draw in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, but if the league does indeed feature five or six ranked teams throughout the season, their best work will come in conference play. You have to go back to the pre-Bruce Pearl era at Tennessee to find a time when the SEC was good enough to make or break its own teams.

It will only get harder, but the basketball will only get better. One year after showing its depth like never before, the SEC should have a chance to make its case at the top of college basketball world.

Earlier this week Dylan took a look at how Tennessee might adapt its offensive philosophy next season. It’s a great question: should the Vols continue to rely on their physicality and inside presence, or look to space the floor even more with better three-point shooting?

The 2017-18 Vols were not only the program’s second-highest-rated team of the KenPom era (still trailing Cuonzo Martin’s final squad), they were also one of the more complex during Tennessee’s run in the last 13 years. Bruce Pearl’s first squad won with great shooting, turning you over and not turning it over themselves. The 2008 Vols added inside threats with Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism, enabling them to space the floor with Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith while continuing to force turnovers on the other end. The Elite Eight squad in 2010 was one of the worst three-point shooting teams of this era (32%), but played excellent team defense with a bothersome lineup of Bobby Maze and four guys that went 6’7″ to 6’10”. Cuonzo’s 2014 team feasted on offensive rebounds while playing great defense without sending teams to the free throw line.

What was this year’s team best at? Statistically the answer is defense, where the Vols are sixth in KenPom’s efficiency ratings, and, as has been the case all year, assist percentage. The Vols are seventh nationally with an assist on 62.1% of their made shots.

So the story on Tennessee’s three-point shooting goes like this:

• The Vols shot 38% from the arc, 45th nationally. It was Tennessee’s highest percentage from three since…2006! Pearl’s first team shot 38.8%, 18th nationally that year. The Vols fell slightly to 36.5% and 35.8% the next two years, impacted by the loss of C.J. Watson and, in 2008, Chris Lofton’s cancer. Since 2008 the Vols had not shot better than 34.4% (Cuonzo’s first team) from three until this year.
• Who was the best shooter on this team? All of them. Admiral Schofield, Lamonte Turner, and Jordan Bowden all amazingly finished at 39.5%. Jordan Bone shot 38%. James Daniel shot 37.2%. Tennessee’s percentage didn’t come from one or two really great shooters, but five pretty good shooters. And four of them will be back next year.
• But…only 35.7% of Tennessee’s field goal attempts were threes. That percentage is 220th nationally. The production is counter-balanced by what Tennessee did at the free throw line: a free throw rate of 35.5% was solid, 107th nationally, but the Vols also shot 75.7% at the line, 43rd nationally.

The answer, of course, is more complicated than, “Let’s just shoot more threes!” I don’t know if there’s a shooter on this roster who is consistently good enough to build more of the offense around. This year the Vols built it around going inside to Grant Williams (and later playing through Admiral Schofield) and emphasized great ball movement. Tennessee made so many threes in large part because so many of them were good looks off good ball movement. The way the 2016-17 team’s success and failure was so easily identifiable through how many assists they had, you could see this coming at the start of the year.

Dylan also took a look at one area of improvement for the starters on this team. When it comes to outside shooting, I think the greatest room for improvement isn’t necessarily what a player can do to shoot it better from three, but what the Vols could do with Kyle Alexander and Derrick Walker inside next year. If one or both of those guys can make even a mini-leap, Tennessee could have two inside players capable of scoring at a high rate on the floor at all times next season. That sort of dynamic can open things up even more for Tennessee’s guards from the outside, and showcase Admiral Schofield even more in the J.P. Prince facilitator role.

You know Tennessee is going to play excellent defense at this point. Offensively next season, I don’t think the answer is a philosophical shift to more outside shooting as much as an opportunity to get even better looks through the offensive maturation of the players with the most room to grow. And obviously, as a team, the Vols played pretty close the national ceiling all season as a three seed. There is much to be excited about here.

When you play close games, you put your heart out there to be broken. We can argue about the match-up and whether this game should have been this close, but too much of that does a disservice to Loyola-Chicago, both their season and their performance today. This was a good team, and they played like one today.

Tennessee, also a good team, didn’t play particularly poorly. The Vols shot 45.5% from the floor, a not-terrible 36% from three, and only turned it over seven times. But the Vols were taken out of their flow in a couple of ways. Admiral Schofield looked like he would write himself into the first page of Tennessee basketball lore in the first five minutes, but foul trouble hampered him the rest of the day. The Vols, healthy all year, didn’t have Kyle Alexander today. Tennessee blocked only two shots, only the fifth time in 35 games they had less than three on the year. Six offensive rebounds was tied for the second-fewest of the year. They did get some flashes of promise from Derrick Walker.

But I think more than anything, Tennessee couldn’t do what it needed to do to disrupt what Loyola wanted to do. The Vols only shot six free throws (and only made three of them), erasing what could have been one of their biggest advantages over the Ramblers. The lack of free throw opportunities is one of the consequences of taking so many threes. And, especially without Alexander and with Schofield in foul trouble, Tennessee’s defense couldn’t consistently stop Loyola’s offense, which was as good as advertised. The Ramblers shot 50% from the field and 40% from the arc; the Vols couldn’t pull away from them defensively and weren’t productive enough offensively to do the same. And that’s how you get a game decided on the final possession. Grant Williams made a play I’m not sure Loyola could have stopped. Clayton Custer got a bounce on a tough shot there’s nothing Tennessee could do to stop. And the Vols fall by one.

Perspective is elusive when your heart is broken, of course. For me, the pain isn’t because Loyola was an 11 seed; we knew those guys were better than that coming in. There is pain from the lost opportunity with the one seed out in this region after Virginia’s loss, but we also shouldn’t pretend the Vols were one bounce from punching their ticket to San Antonio. Cincinnati is still alive and well. And in the clear-path department, we’ve actually seen better/worse:  the 2000 squad went to the Sweet 16 as the highest seed left in the region, but lost to North Carolina as an eight seed. When we catch our breath, we might find this isn’t the very worst of anything.

But it was a bad bounce for the good guys, and it always hurts in March. There will also be time to look forward to next year and get excited about everyone but James Daniel coming back, and rightfully so.

But don’t forget to look back, too. This team will be SEC Champions forever. They changed the direction and narrative of Tennessee’s basketball program in a single year. And they gave us the best season we’ve seen from the revenue-producing sports in this athletic department in eight years.

For today, it hurts. But for all they were this year, and all they’ll have a chance to be tomorrow, we are grateful.

Go Vols.

When the at-large bids came to an end on the 11 line, the selection committee chose San Diego State and Loyola-Chicago as the top remaining automatic qualifiers. The Aztecs carry some recent tournament history. The Ramblers…well, if you’re like me, you didn’t even know Loyola-Chicago was the Ramblers before this year. Loyola did win the NCAA Tournament in 1963, one of four appearances for the decade. They next made the tournament in 1985. They next made the tournament this year.

So they may be relatively unknown, but they’re the best Cinderella on the dance floor. At 40th in KenPom, they’re an eight seed disguised as an eleven.

Do not overlook this team. But do not overrate them: they beat Florida in December and beat Miami yesterday, but Tennessee will be the best team on their schedule.

The Vols and Ramblers play at a similar pace, with Tennessee slightly faster (271st nationally; Loyola is 314th). Like Tennessee, Loyola distributes the ball well (24th nationally in assist percentage). But while Tennessee’s distribution leads to the muscle of Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield (and often an offensive rebound or the free throw line), Loyola’s leads to high percentage, first-shot scoring.

The Ramblers are 15th nationally in three-point percentage and 13th in two-point percentage. Their threes are opportunity shots – only 35.8% of their attempts are from the arc, 215th in the country – but they take full advantage. Point guard Clayton Custer takes just over four threes per game, but shoots 46.2% from deep, 23rd nationally. Forward Donte Ingram shoots more often and hits 39.9%. Center Cameron Krutwig (6’9″ 260) is a high-percentage scorer inside, over 60% from the floor. And their most efficient scorer comes off the bench: forward Aundre Jackson averages 10.9 points in 19.1 minutes.

But if they don’t get it on the first attempt – and especially if Krutwig doesn’t get the rebound – Loyola doesn’t get it. The Ramblers are 331st nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (which is why they’re only 67th in offensive efficiency despite shooting so well). I haven’t seen them enough to know this for sure, but my assumption is their focus is on preventing transition and playing great defense. And they do that: the Ramblers are also 26th in defensive efficiency. They don’t foul, and they don’t block shots. But they will take it away, getting a steal on 10.1% of opponent possessions.

Loyola is 24-0 when shooting at least 45%, 5-5 when they don’t. Their lowest shooting percentage in those 24 victories was yesterday, 47.3%. This is the biggest question for this game: how much can Tennessee’s defense affect the great shooting Loyola is accustomed to?

The Vols are fifth nationally in defensive efficiency. The best defensive team Loyola has faced is Florida (19th). But they shot 52% against the Gators, including 10-of-12 for Aundre Jackson and 6-of-10 for Cameron Krutwig inside. They hit 6-of-12 from the arc. And they held Florida to 36.9% from the floor; the Gators had 15 more shot attempts thanks to 18 offensive rebounds, and only turned it over eight times, but simply could not convert.

Even without Wichita State, there are still some good defensive teams in the Missouri Valley: Evansville is 32nd in efficiency, Northern Iowa 60th. The Ramblers also played Wright State. Miami, 44th in defensive efficiency, gave up 47.3% from the floor to the Ramblers, out-shooting them from the floor and the arc. But they turned it over 16 times (and the loser of yesterday’s game was always going to kick themselves for missing five free throws).

Tennessee should represent the stiffest challenge for Loyola’s offense this year. But the Vols played a top five strength of schedule; Loyola’s offense should not be the stiffest challenge Tennessee’s defense has faced.

The Vols have played 13 offenses rated higher in efficiency than Loyola, including teams rated first (Villanova), second (Purdue), and fifth (North Carolina). For pure shooting, only Villanova and Purdue have been better than the Ramblers. But when you include the rebounding and free throw components, their numbers fall down the list. Tennessee held Purdue to 37% from the floor and the arc. Villanova was good, but not spectacular (46%) against Tennessee’s defense. The Vols have defended well enough against great offenses to feel confident they can do it again tomorrow.

And more good news for Tennessee: the Vols will also be the most efficient offense the Ramblers have faced all year.

Loyola is a good team accustomed to winning, and after yesterday I’m sure they’re feeling good. They are one of the best teams in the nation at scoring on their first shot. But if they don’t get it then, they don’t get it. And Tennessee will test them – on both ends of the floor – in ways they haven’t been tested yet.

Saturday, 6:10 PM ET, TNT. Atlanta awaits.

Go Vols.

The Vols missed their first six shots in the first three minutes, a few nerves showing their face in Dallas, perhaps. But in those same three minutes, Wright State went 0-for-3 and turned it over twice. Then the Vols got going. The Raiders did not.

Tennessee led by 11 at halftime, never let Wright State get closer than 10 from there, and stretched their legs in the final minutes to take home a 26-point victory. In the SEC/Big 12 Challenge the Vols held Iowa State to 45 points and 33.3% from the floor, the best performance from Tennessee’s defense this year before today. The Vols held Wright State to 31.7% shooting, and just missed a new benchmark for points allowed before a mini-spurt from the Raiders in the last three minutes.

The Vols almost had double-double-doubles: Admiral Schofield had 15 points and 12 rebounds, while Grant Williams added 14 points and nine rebounds. Lamonte Turner poured in 19 points off the bench, including 9-of-10 at the line, while adding nine assists to just one turnover. Tennessee also got good work from John Fulkerson and Jordan Bowden in grabbing seven rebounds apiece.

It’s the sixth time since 2006 the Vols have advanced to the tournament’s second round; four of the other five made their way to the Sweet 16. To get there the Vols will have to go through Miami or Loyola-Chicago, a stiffer challenge either way. But credit the Vols today for using defense to do exactly what a three seed should do to a 14. Not since Tennessee blew out Long Beach State in 2007’s opening round have the Vols had such an enjoyably easy time in the tournament. It won’t be this easy again, but the Vols look more than up to the challenge.

What has grown since November comes to an end in March. While there will be only one champion, the entire field can hope for a moment. Just one moment to lead to the chance to make just one more. The last days of the season are the best, as long as you keep winning.

While I don’t want to find out what it’s like to lose to a 14 seed, this season is already safely in the “best” category for Tennessee. I’ve got the t-shirt to prove it. And this is still the same year that started in 13th place in the media poll. Many didn’t think we’d be playing today at all, nevermind as a three seed.

You couldn’t script this season. And it’s really hard to script this team:

• The Vols are 19-3 when shooting at least 33.3% from three. But they also beat Florida, Texas A&M, and won at Rupp Arena shooting less than that.
• The Vols are 17-0 when holding their opponent under 40% from the floor. But they also beat Kentucky twice when the Cats shot above that.
• The Vols are 14-0 when assisting on at least 64% of their made shots. But they beat Purdue and Kentucky when assisting on less than half of their makes.

Who makes this team go?

• Grant Williams has scored 20+ eight times, but the Vols lost two of those games. Meanwhile one of their best performances of the year was at Mississippi State, when he had eight.
• Admiral Schofield has scored 20+ seven times, but only two of those came against tournament teams (Kentucky twice). Meanwhile the Vols beat nine-seed NC State in the Bahamas when Schofield had zero.
• The Vols are 13-2 when Jordan Bowden scores double digits, but just annihilated Arkansas in the SEC Tournament when he had two points.

(All these stats come from the fine folks at Sports Reference)

There was no blueprint for a season like this one in November, and there is no detailed blueprint for what Tennessee does well in March. The Vols play inside-out and defend well enough to give themselves a chance to win every night, but have enough diversity offensively to get that win in a number of different ways. They won the deepest SEC in history, won eight games against tournament teams, and went to the wire with a one seed and a two seed. They ran past Arkansas with 84 points and won in Rupp Arena by holding Kentucky to less than 60. I’m not even sure what a bad match-up would look like for this team, but I know no one will look forward to playing them.

I don’t know what’s going to happen from here. But I do know, whoever we’re facing, Rick Barnes and his staff will give these players a chance to win, one way or another.

Let’s dance.

Wright State comes in 135th in KenPom; that’s the lowest 14 seed and lower than two 15 seeds. Since opening with Presbyterian and High Point, the Vols have only played two teams with a lower KenPom rating: Mercer (148) on November 29, and Lipscomb (165) on December 9. That’s what the fourth-best schedule in the nation looks like.

The Raiders know winning. After an 0-3 start including losses to tourney-bound Loyola-Chicago and Murray State, they won eight of their next ten and then started 7-0 in the Horizon League. There was an issue with guard Justin Mitchell around this time, who apparently left the team in a dispute over playing time. Mitchell averaged 11 points and seven rebounds per game.

Northern Kentucky won the conference, but Wright State swept them. Northern Kentucky is 95th in KenPom and is the best win on Wright State’s resume. They didn’t see them in the conference tournament, rolling past Green Bay by 15, Milwaukee by six, and Cleveland State by 17 in the title game.

As Northern Kentucky is the best team they’ve beaten and Loyola-Chicago is the best team they’ve played (do not – DO NOT – sleep on those guys, 41st in KenPom), Tennessee should be a step up from anything they’ve seen.

What Wright State does well:

• Defense. Wright State is 53rd in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. That would still be just 11th-best in the SEC, but it’s worth noting. Opponents shoot just 41.4% against them and average 65.7 points per game.
• Getting to the free throw line. 21% of their points come at the stripe, and the Raiders are 57th nationally in free throws attempted. Three players shoot better than 81% from the stripe; leading scorer Grant Benzinger shoots 89%, 33rd nationally.
• Can they guard Grant Williams? They’ll put 6’11” Parker Ernsthausen and 6’9″, 275 lbs Loudon Love on the floor at the same time. Seriously, this dude is a tree. So I’m not sure the ‘ol back-em-down will be option number one.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• More Defense. This will be true as long as we’re in this thing, but it’s especially true here: if the Vols are going to run away from this team, they’ll do it on the defensive end. Wright State is 248th nationally in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings. They may hang their hat on defense, but so should Tennessee. The top three seeds in the South region are ranked first, second, and fourth nationally in KenPom defense. No one is getting to or getting out of Atlanta without making things ugly. If the Vols are committed to excellence on the defense end, Wright State shouldn’t threaten the Vols even in a low-scoring game.
• Exploit size on the perimeter. Ernsthausen and Love provide plenty of size inside, but Wright State’s guards lack length. Playing a team like Kentucky changes everything about how you get good shots, but against the Raiders the Vols should find more opportunities for productive penetration. I’m curious to see how often the Vols put their three guards and Williams/Schofield lineup on the floor against this team to create a mismatch for the Admiral.
• Let talent prevail. Wright State is huge inside, but they’re not particularly great at blocking shots: 6.7% is the 288th worst block percentage in the nation. So while Grant Williams may not be backing down Loudon Love, he may still be able to get good shots. The Vols took care of business every single time against a mid-major this season, the first time that’s happened in eight years. With defense was the catalyst, the Vols should be able to do the same thing here.

We’ll have more on the bracket this week. The Vols go at 12:40 PM on Thursday, check your local listings for TruTV.