Author Archives: Will Shelton

Earlier this week Dylan took a look at how Tennessee might adapt its offensive philosophy next season. It’s a great question: should the Vols continue to rely on their physicality and inside presence, or look to space the floor even more with better three-point shooting?

The 2017-18 Vols were not only the program’s second-highest-rated team of the KenPom era (still trailing Cuonzo Martin’s final squad), they were also one of the more complex during Tennessee’s run in the last 13 years. Bruce Pearl’s first squad won with great shooting, turning you over and not turning it over themselves. The 2008 Vols added inside threats with Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism, enabling them to space the floor with Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith while continuing to force turnovers on the other end. The Elite Eight squad in 2010 was one of the worst three-point shooting teams of this era (32%), but played excellent team defense with a bothersome lineup of Bobby Maze and four guys that went 6’7″ to 6’10”. Cuonzo’s 2014 team feasted on offensive rebounds while playing great defense without sending teams to the free throw line.

What was this year’s team best at? Statistically the answer is defense, where the Vols are sixth in KenPom’s efficiency ratings, and, as has been the case all year, assist percentage. The Vols are seventh nationally with an assist on 62.1% of their made shots.

So the story on Tennessee’s three-point shooting goes like this:

• The Vols shot 38% from the arc, 45th nationally. It was Tennessee’s highest percentage from three since…2006! Pearl’s first team shot 38.8%, 18th nationally that year. The Vols fell slightly to 36.5% and 35.8% the next two years, impacted by the loss of C.J. Watson and, in 2008, Chris Lofton’s cancer. Since 2008 the Vols had not shot better than 34.4% (Cuonzo’s first team) from three until this year.
• Who was the best shooter on this team? All of them. Admiral Schofield, Lamonte Turner, and Jordan Bowden all amazingly finished at 39.5%. Jordan Bone shot 38%. James Daniel shot 37.2%. Tennessee’s percentage didn’t come from one or two really great shooters, but five pretty good shooters. And four of them will be back next year.
• But…only 35.7% of Tennessee’s field goal attempts were threes. That percentage is 220th nationally. The production is counter-balanced by what Tennessee did at the free throw line: a free throw rate of 35.5% was solid, 107th nationally, but the Vols also shot 75.7% at the line, 43rd nationally.

The answer, of course, is more complicated than, “Let’s just shoot more threes!” I don’t know if there’s a shooter on this roster who is consistently good enough to build more of the offense around. This year the Vols built it around going inside to Grant Williams (and later playing through Admiral Schofield) and emphasized great ball movement. Tennessee made so many threes in large part because so many of them were good looks off good ball movement. The way the 2016-17 team’s success and failure was so easily identifiable through how many assists they had, you could see this coming at the start of the year.

Dylan also took a look at one area of improvement for the starters on this team. When it comes to outside shooting, I think the greatest room for improvement isn’t necessarily what a player can do to shoot it better from three, but what the Vols could do with Kyle Alexander and Derrick Walker inside next year. If one or both of those guys can make even a mini-leap, Tennessee could have two inside players capable of scoring at a high rate on the floor at all times next season. That sort of dynamic can open things up even more for Tennessee’s guards from the outside, and showcase Admiral Schofield even more in the J.P. Prince facilitator role.

You know Tennessee is going to play excellent defense at this point. Offensively next season, I don’t think the answer is a philosophical shift to more outside shooting as much as an opportunity to get even better looks through the offensive maturation of the players with the most room to grow. And obviously, as a team, the Vols played pretty close the national ceiling all season as a three seed. There is much to be excited about here.

When you play close games, you put your heart out there to be broken. We can argue about the match-up and whether this game should have been this close, but too much of that does a disservice to Loyola-Chicago, both their season and their performance today. This was a good team, and they played like one today.

Tennessee, also a good team, didn’t play particularly poorly. The Vols shot 45.5% from the floor, a not-terrible 36% from three, and only turned it over seven times. But the Vols were taken out of their flow in a couple of ways. Admiral Schofield looked like he would write himself into the first page of Tennessee basketball lore in the first five minutes, but foul trouble hampered him the rest of the day. The Vols, healthy all year, didn’t have Kyle Alexander today. Tennessee blocked only two shots, only the fifth time in 35 games they had less than three on the year. Six offensive rebounds was tied for the second-fewest of the year. They did get some flashes of promise from Derrick Walker.

But I think more than anything, Tennessee couldn’t do what it needed to do to disrupt what Loyola wanted to do. The Vols only shot six free throws (and only made three of them), erasing what could have been one of their biggest advantages over the Ramblers. The lack of free throw opportunities is one of the consequences of taking so many threes. And, especially without Alexander and with Schofield in foul trouble, Tennessee’s defense couldn’t consistently stop Loyola’s offense, which was as good as advertised. The Ramblers shot 50% from the field and 40% from the arc; the Vols couldn’t pull away from them defensively and weren’t productive enough offensively to do the same. And that’s how you get a game decided on the final possession. Grant Williams made a play I’m not sure Loyola could have stopped. Clayton Custer got a bounce on a tough shot there’s nothing Tennessee could do to stop. And the Vols fall by one.

Perspective is elusive when your heart is broken, of course. For me, the pain isn’t because Loyola was an 11 seed; we knew those guys were better than that coming in. There is pain from the lost opportunity with the one seed out in this region after Virginia’s loss, but we also shouldn’t pretend the Vols were one bounce from punching their ticket to San Antonio. Cincinnati is still alive and well. And in the clear-path department, we’ve actually seen better/worse:  the 2000 squad went to the Sweet 16 as the highest seed left in the region, but lost to North Carolina as an eight seed. When we catch our breath, we might find this isn’t the very worst of anything.

But it was a bad bounce for the good guys, and it always hurts in March. There will also be time to look forward to next year and get excited about everyone but James Daniel coming back, and rightfully so.

But don’t forget to look back, too. This team will be SEC Champions forever. They changed the direction and narrative of Tennessee’s basketball program in a single year. And they gave us the best season we’ve seen from the revenue-producing sports in this athletic department in eight years.

For today, it hurts. But for all they were this year, and all they’ll have a chance to be tomorrow, we are grateful.

Go Vols.

When the at-large bids came to an end on the 11 line, the selection committee chose San Diego State and Loyola-Chicago as the top remaining automatic qualifiers. The Aztecs carry some recent tournament history. The Ramblers…well, if you’re like me, you didn’t even know Loyola-Chicago was the Ramblers before this year. Loyola did win the NCAA Tournament in 1963, one of four appearances for the decade. They next made the tournament in 1985. They next made the tournament this year.

So they may be relatively unknown, but they’re the best Cinderella on the dance floor. At 40th in KenPom, they’re an eight seed disguised as an eleven.

Do not overlook this team. But do not overrate them: they beat Florida in December and beat Miami yesterday, but Tennessee will be the best team on their schedule.

The Vols and Ramblers play at a similar pace, with Tennessee slightly faster (271st nationally; Loyola is 314th). Like Tennessee, Loyola distributes the ball well (24th nationally in assist percentage). But while Tennessee’s distribution leads to the muscle of Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield (and often an offensive rebound or the free throw line), Loyola’s leads to high percentage, first-shot scoring.

The Ramblers are 15th nationally in three-point percentage and 13th in two-point percentage. Their threes are opportunity shots – only 35.8% of their attempts are from the arc, 215th in the country – but they take full advantage. Point guard Clayton Custer takes just over four threes per game, but shoots 46.2% from deep, 23rd nationally. Forward Donte Ingram shoots more often and hits 39.9%. Center Cameron Krutwig (6’9″ 260) is a high-percentage scorer inside, over 60% from the floor. And their most efficient scorer comes off the bench: forward Aundre Jackson averages 10.9 points in 19.1 minutes.

But if they don’t get it on the first attempt – and especially if Krutwig doesn’t get the rebound – Loyola doesn’t get it. The Ramblers are 331st nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (which is why they’re only 67th in offensive efficiency despite shooting so well). I haven’t seen them enough to know this for sure, but my assumption is their focus is on preventing transition and playing great defense. And they do that: the Ramblers are also 26th in defensive efficiency. They don’t foul, and they don’t block shots. But they will take it away, getting a steal on 10.1% of opponent possessions.

Loyola is 24-0 when shooting at least 45%, 5-5 when they don’t. Their lowest shooting percentage in those 24 victories was yesterday, 47.3%. This is the biggest question for this game: how much can Tennessee’s defense affect the great shooting Loyola is accustomed to?

The Vols are fifth nationally in defensive efficiency. The best defensive team Loyola has faced is Florida (19th). But they shot 52% against the Gators, including 10-of-12 for Aundre Jackson and 6-of-10 for Cameron Krutwig inside. They hit 6-of-12 from the arc. And they held Florida to 36.9% from the floor; the Gators had 15 more shot attempts thanks to 18 offensive rebounds, and only turned it over eight times, but simply could not convert.

Even without Wichita State, there are still some good defensive teams in the Missouri Valley: Evansville is 32nd in efficiency, Northern Iowa 60th. The Ramblers also played Wright State. Miami, 44th in defensive efficiency, gave up 47.3% from the floor to the Ramblers, out-shooting them from the floor and the arc. But they turned it over 16 times (and the loser of yesterday’s game was always going to kick themselves for missing five free throws).

Tennessee should represent the stiffest challenge for Loyola’s offense this year. But the Vols played a top five strength of schedule; Loyola’s offense should not be the stiffest challenge Tennessee’s defense has faced.

The Vols have played 13 offenses rated higher in efficiency than Loyola, including teams rated first (Villanova), second (Purdue), and fifth (North Carolina). For pure shooting, only Villanova and Purdue have been better than the Ramblers. But when you include the rebounding and free throw components, their numbers fall down the list. Tennessee held Purdue to 37% from the floor and the arc. Villanova was good, but not spectacular (46%) against Tennessee’s defense. The Vols have defended well enough against great offenses to feel confident they can do it again tomorrow.

And more good news for Tennessee: the Vols will also be the most efficient offense the Ramblers have faced all year.

Loyola is a good team accustomed to winning, and after yesterday I’m sure they’re feeling good. They are one of the best teams in the nation at scoring on their first shot. But if they don’t get it then, they don’t get it. And Tennessee will test them – on both ends of the floor – in ways they haven’t been tested yet.

Saturday, 6:10 PM ET, TNT. Atlanta awaits.

Go Vols.

The Vols missed their first six shots in the first three minutes, a few nerves showing their face in Dallas, perhaps. But in those same three minutes, Wright State went 0-for-3 and turned it over twice. Then the Vols got going. The Raiders did not.

Tennessee led by 11 at halftime, never let Wright State get closer than 10 from there, and stretched their legs in the final minutes to take home a 26-point victory. In the SEC/Big 12 Challenge the Vols held Iowa State to 45 points and 33.3% from the floor, the best performance from Tennessee’s defense this year before today. The Vols held Wright State to 31.7% shooting, and just missed a new benchmark for points allowed before a mini-spurt from the Raiders in the last three minutes.

The Vols almost had double-double-doubles: Admiral Schofield had 15 points and 12 rebounds, while Grant Williams added 14 points and nine rebounds. Lamonte Turner poured in 19 points off the bench, including 9-of-10 at the line, while adding nine assists to just one turnover. Tennessee also got good work from John Fulkerson and Jordan Bowden in grabbing seven rebounds apiece.

It’s the sixth time since 2006 the Vols have advanced to the tournament’s second round; four of the other five made their way to the Sweet 16. To get there the Vols will have to go through Miami or Loyola-Chicago, a stiffer challenge either way. But credit the Vols today for using defense to do exactly what a three seed should do to a 14. Not since Tennessee blew out Long Beach State in 2007’s opening round have the Vols had such an enjoyably easy time in the tournament. It won’t be this easy again, but the Vols look more than up to the challenge.

What has grown since November comes to an end in March. While there will be only one champion, the entire field can hope for a moment. Just one moment to lead to the chance to make just one more. The last days of the season are the best, as long as you keep winning.

While I don’t want to find out what it’s like to lose to a 14 seed, this season is already safely in the “best” category for Tennessee. I’ve got the t-shirt to prove it. And this is still the same year that started in 13th place in the media poll. Many didn’t think we’d be playing today at all, nevermind as a three seed.

You couldn’t script this season. And it’s really hard to script this team:

• The Vols are 19-3 when shooting at least 33.3% from three. But they also beat Florida, Texas A&M, and won at Rupp Arena shooting less than that.
• The Vols are 17-0 when holding their opponent under 40% from the floor. But they also beat Kentucky twice when the Cats shot above that.
• The Vols are 14-0 when assisting on at least 64% of their made shots. But they beat Purdue and Kentucky when assisting on less than half of their makes.

Who makes this team go?

• Grant Williams has scored 20+ eight times, but the Vols lost two of those games. Meanwhile one of their best performances of the year was at Mississippi State, when he had eight.
• Admiral Schofield has scored 20+ seven times, but only two of those came against tournament teams (Kentucky twice). Meanwhile the Vols beat nine-seed NC State in the Bahamas when Schofield had zero.
• The Vols are 13-2 when Jordan Bowden scores double digits, but just annihilated Arkansas in the SEC Tournament when he had two points.

(All these stats come from the fine folks at Sports Reference)

There was no blueprint for a season like this one in November, and there is no detailed blueprint for what Tennessee does well in March. The Vols play inside-out and defend well enough to give themselves a chance to win every night, but have enough diversity offensively to get that win in a number of different ways. They won the deepest SEC in history, won eight games against tournament teams, and went to the wire with a one seed and a two seed. They ran past Arkansas with 84 points and won in Rupp Arena by holding Kentucky to less than 60. I’m not even sure what a bad match-up would look like for this team, but I know no one will look forward to playing them.

I don’t know what’s going to happen from here. But I do know, whoever we’re facing, Rick Barnes and his staff will give these players a chance to win, one way or another.

Let’s dance.

Wright State comes in 135th in KenPom; that’s the lowest 14 seed and lower than two 15 seeds. Since opening with Presbyterian and High Point, the Vols have only played two teams with a lower KenPom rating: Mercer (148) on November 29, and Lipscomb (165) on December 9. That’s what the fourth-best schedule in the nation looks like.

The Raiders know winning. After an 0-3 start including losses to tourney-bound Loyola-Chicago and Murray State, they won eight of their next ten and then started 7-0 in the Horizon League. There was an issue with guard Justin Mitchell around this time, who apparently left the team in a dispute over playing time. Mitchell averaged 11 points and seven rebounds per game.

Northern Kentucky won the conference, but Wright State swept them. Northern Kentucky is 95th in KenPom and is the best win on Wright State’s resume. They didn’t see them in the conference tournament, rolling past Green Bay by 15, Milwaukee by six, and Cleveland State by 17 in the title game.

As Northern Kentucky is the best team they’ve beaten and Loyola-Chicago is the best team they’ve played (do not – DO NOT – sleep on those guys, 41st in KenPom), Tennessee should be a step up from anything they’ve seen.

What Wright State does well:

• Defense. Wright State is 53rd in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. That would still be just 11th-best in the SEC, but it’s worth noting. Opponents shoot just 41.4% against them and average 65.7 points per game.
• Getting to the free throw line. 21% of their points come at the stripe, and the Raiders are 57th nationally in free throws attempted. Three players shoot better than 81% from the stripe; leading scorer Grant Benzinger shoots 89%, 33rd nationally.
• Can they guard Grant Williams? They’ll put 6’11” Parker Ernsthausen and 6’9″, 275 lbs Loudon Love on the floor at the same time. Seriously, this dude is a tree. So I’m not sure the ‘ol back-em-down will be option number one.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• More Defense. This will be true as long as we’re in this thing, but it’s especially true here: if the Vols are going to run away from this team, they’ll do it on the defensive end. Wright State is 248th nationally in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings. They may hang their hat on defense, but so should Tennessee. The top three seeds in the South region are ranked first, second, and fourth nationally in KenPom defense. No one is getting to or getting out of Atlanta without making things ugly. If the Vols are committed to excellence on the defense end, Wright State shouldn’t threaten the Vols even in a low-scoring game.
• Exploit size on the perimeter. Ernsthausen and Love provide plenty of size inside, but Wright State’s guards lack length. Playing a team like Kentucky changes everything about how you get good shots, but against the Raiders the Vols should find more opportunities for productive penetration. I’m curious to see how often the Vols put their three guards and Williams/Schofield lineup on the floor against this team to create a mismatch for the Admiral.
• Let talent prevail. Wright State is huge inside, but they’re not particularly great at blocking shots: 6.7% is the 288th worst block percentage in the nation. So while Grant Williams may not be backing down Loudon Love, he may still be able to get good shots. The Vols took care of business every single time against a mid-major this season, the first time that’s happened in eight years. With defense was the catalyst, the Vols should be able to do the same thing here.

We’ll have more on the bracket this week. The Vols go at 12:40 PM on Thursday, check your local listings for TruTV.

A thrilling comeback made for a thrilling game, but Kentucky used a pair of offensive rebounds to turn a 62-61 Tennessee lead with five minutes to play into an advantage they would never relinquish. Jordan Bone’s corner pocket three cut the lead back to one with 1:26 to go, but the story of the day was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and he buried a step-back jumper in reponse. SGA had 29 points on 10-of-16 shooting, and the Vols had no answer for the game’s best player. He kept the Cats in front at the end, and Kentucky wins the SEC Tournament 77-72.

The Vols were dead and buried before Admiral Schofield knocked down three threes late in the first half, trimming a 17-point Kentucky lead to five at the break. Schofield, who left the game for a few minutes in the second half after a loose ball scramble knocked him to the floor, had 22 points and 10 rebounds.

But it wasn’t enough to overcome SGA and 7-of-16 from the arc from the Wildcats, who go to 23-3 when shooting better than 29% from three. This game had the feeling of a second weekend tournament affair, and both teams should feel confident about their ability to get there.

We’ll find out the path at 6:00 PM ET; Tennessee’s should still go through Nashville.

On Friday, the Vols won an out-of-character contest against Mississippi State despite season highs in turnovers, missed free throws, and shots blocked. On Saturday, the pendulum swung.

Against Arkansas, the Vols hit 11-of-17 from the arc, a season-high 64.7%. Jordan Bone, James Daniel, and Lamonte Turner splashed three each, and Admiral Schofield added two others. The Vols jumped out to a 6-0 lead, then Daniel and John Fulkerson unleashed a 10-0 run at the eight minute mark to put the Vols up 17. That’s the sentence you were expecting to read, I know.

It was 19 at halftime on the strength of 19-of-25 from the floor in the first 20 minutes, an unbelievable 76%. That sort of fire can’t last, but Tennessee’s defense and excellent free throw shooting made sure Arkansas got no closer than 11 in the second half.

The win puts Tennessee in good position to earn a trip to Nashville for the first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament. The Vols are eighth in RPI and putting on a good show in St. Louis, while teams from the Big Ten take the week off. And I wouldn’t rule out a No. 2 seed just yet, especially with a win tomorrow.

And tomorrow, a special piece of history will be on the table.

The Vols haven’t won the SEC Tournament since 1979. LSU won the league that year, but Tennessee beat Kentucky twice in the regular season, then took down the Cats in overtime in the tournament finals. Appropriately, it is Kentucky who will stand between Rick Barnes’ squad and a bigger slice of immortality tomorrow.

This team already has a piece of that pie, having won the SEC regular season championship. And, like everyone else, its ultimate destiny will be decided over the next few weeks. But not only does it have a chance to do something truly special tomorrow, it is also playing its best basketball in the present.

I thought we might have seen it the last time we faced Kentucky at Rupp Arena. Then I thought we saw it in Starkville two weeks ago. You can’t expect to shoot 76% every night or 65% from the arc, no doubt. But Rick Barnes’ team is relentlessly committed to improvement. The Vols have won 16 of their last 19 games. They are up to 11th in KenPom. They just keep getting better.

And they will need to in order to earn a three-game sweep of Kentucky. The game in Rupp Arena was as even as any I’ve seen, both in the box score and in its flow. The entire contest was played within one possession other than a four-point Tennessee lead that lasted 10 seconds. Tennessee won because they made the plays at the end of the game, including two of their nine steals on the night. The Vol defense was opportunistic against Arkansas today as well.

Kentucky isn’t a complicated animal: they’re 22-3 when shooting better than 29% from the arc, 1-7 when they don’t. We’ve seen both sides of that coin: they were 3-of-14 (21.4%) at Rupp, but did shoot 7-of-19 (36.8%) in Knoxville and still lost.

The Vols will need to dodge the kind of shooting performance we saw from Kentucky and Wenyen Gabriel today, and keep Kentucky’s size off the offensive glass and away from the foul line. Rick Barnes, who is 4-2 against Kentucky at UT, always uses undersized bigs like Armani Moore and Admiral Schofield to attack Kentucky; Schofield’s 16 shot attempts were the most for any Vol at Rupp, and I would expect something similar again tomorrow.

There is already so much to celebrate with this team, and so much still ahead of it no matter what happens tomorrow. This one will get to stand on its own, as Kentucky stands in their way one more time.

1:00 PM ET, ESPN. Wear your orange to church.

Go Vols.

If last night felt weird, that’s because it was:

• 33.3% from the field was Tennessee’s second-lowest shooting performance of the season.
• 60.7% from the free throw line was Tennessee’s second-worst performance of the season, barely beating a 6-of-10 night against LSU. Eleven missed free throws were a season high.
• Twenty offensive rebounds was a season high, by far. The Vols had 16 against Purdue and North Carolina (a good sign that the Vols can hang on the offensive glass when playing teams with tremendous size).
• Seventeen turnovers tied a season high (Wake Forest).
• Mississippi State had one assist. One. That’s unheard of, and is obviously a season high for Tennessee’s defense. The fewest assists for a previous opponent was six…also from Mississippi State.
• Eight blocked shots for Mississippi State is the most any team has scored against the Vols this year. The Bulldogs’ size again clearly affected Grant Williams, and this time Tennessee wasn’t nearly as clean in running the rest of their offense.

But…we won. And today’s game should be much more pleasing to the eye.

Way back on December 30, Tennessee played 36 of its best minutes of the year. The Vols led Arkansas 70-61 in Fayetteville with 3:53 to go. Twenty seconds later, Grant Williams picked up his fourth foul. And then, chaos.

Arkansas scored 61 points in the game’s first 36 minutes, then 34 points in the last four minutes of regulation and five minutes of overtime. A frustrating component in several of Tennessee’s losses – a preventable turnover in the final minutes – really sparked the Arkansas rally: splashing a three, getting a steal, and getting a layup turned an eight point game into a one possession affair. The Vols still had a chance to win with 18 seconds left in regulation, but Jordan Bone only hit one of two free throws and the game went to overtime. Williams fouled out at the end of regulation and Admiral Schofield followed in the first minute of overtime. With Tennessee’s defense fundamentally altered by foul trouble, Arkansas exploded. Daryl Macon finished with 33 points, Jaylen Barford with 28.

Offensively, the Arkansas game was Tennessee’s best scoring performance from its guards: 21 from Jordan Bone, 17 from James Daniel, and 10 from Lamonte Turner. But that’s not Tennessee’s best basketball: we should see the Vols again try to play more through Williams and Schofield inside-out today.

As advertised, Arkansas has an incredibly efficient offense. The Razorbacks shoot 40.1% from the arc, 12th nationally. And they only turn it over on 15.2% of their possessions, 17th nationally, this despite playing the 28th-fastest pace in college basketball. Tennessee dictated the tempo for those first 36 minutes of the previous encounter, Arkansas for the last nine.

The Razorbacks struggle to keep teams off the glass because they want to get out and run, so offensive rebounds are there for the taking (Arkansas is 295th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage). They also foul a lot, 27th nationally, which means Tennessee needs to shoot better than the 69.2% they put up from the line in Fayetteville.

Tennessee’s objective is to stay physical in attacking the Arkansas defense, but do so at the pace they set instead of allowing Arkansas’ guards to turn this into a shootout. It worked really well until Grant Williams got his fourth foul last time. That first meeting also included 11 minutes from John Fulkerson and nine from Chris Darrington; if Rick Barnes sticks with the lineups he’s been using, it’ll be more Yves Pons and Derrick Walker today.

After a surprise run to the finals led by Allan Houston in 1991, Tennessee didn’t play on Saturday in the SEC Tournament from 1992-2007. Since then the Vols have seen Saturday in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2014. But they’ve only seen Sunday once since 1991, in 2009. And the Vols still haven’t won this thing since 1979.

A lot of history, a potential three-game sweep of Kentucky, and the continued pursuit of Nashville is on the line today against Arkansas. This game should be much more fun to watch. Let’s hope the outcome is the same.

Alabama and Kentucky go at 1:00 PM ET, then the Vols and Razorbacks will follow. This is only the fourth time the Vols have been on ESPN this year. Have you heard we were picked 13th in the league?

Go Vols.

 

When last we met…was 11 days ago. Tennessee played its best game of the year in Starkville, turning a 25-17 deficit into a 76-54 victory. The talking points from that win:

• Mississippi State put 6’10” Aric Holdman and 6’11” Abdul Ado on the floor at the same time, and made it their business to deny Grant Williams. It worked on Williams, who had just three shots and eight points. But it left no answer for Admiral Schofield, who scored 24 points.
• Tennessee went to Schofield and didn’t just settle for threes when Williams wasn’t a good option. The Vols were just 4-of-11 from the arc, but at one point made 11 consecutive field goals in the second half. The Bulldogs are a good defensive team – 42nd in efficiency – but had no answer for Tennessee.
• Quinndary Weatherspoon had 17 points, but the Vols took away everything else. Mississippi State made just two shots in the first eight minutes of the second half, and Tennessee’s defense encouraged them to take threes. MSU went 4-of-20 in that game, and is 342nd nationally from the arc on the year at 30.1%.

In the last three games, Tennessee’s defense has been selling out to run shooters off the three-point line (Florida), or encouraging the opponent to fire away (Mississippi State, Georgia). The former leaves the Vols vulnerable to offensive rebounds. But the latter can negate an advantage big teams like the Bulldogs often enjoy. Mississippi State is 79th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, but grabbed only five against Tennessee. I don’t know if we can bank on MSU shooting 20% from the arc again, but I’d imagine the Vols will once again take their chances.

The Bulldogs rise to 67 in RPI, and have to know what a win over Tennessee would do for their NCAA Tournament resume. The same was true 11 days ago, but it’s especially do-or-die now.

Meanwhile Tennessee continues to play for upward mobility in the bracket, and a trip to Nashville in the first and second rounds. We put this in the comments from Wednesday’s look at championship week, but here again is the easiest way to understand what the Vols need to get to Nashville, using projected seeding from the Bracket Matrix. Each of the eight first and second round sites can host two top-four seeds. The committee will start with the number one overall seed and place teams in the closest geographical opening. So if the matrix is a good guide, the field would look like this right now:

• 1A Virginia (Charlotte)
• 1B Villanova (Pittsburgh)
• 1C Xavier (Detroit)
• 1D Kansas (Wichita)
• 2A Duke (Charlotte)
• 2B North Carolina (Nashville)
• 2C Purdue (Detroit)
• 2D Cincinnati (Pittsburgh)
• 3A Auburn (Nashville)
• 3B Michigan State (Wichita)
• 3C Tennessee (Dallas)
• 3D Michigan (Dallas)

If the committee agrees with the matrix and the Vols are the third No. 3 seed, they need to move past two teams to find their way to Music City next weekend. The Big Ten held their tournament last weekend, so there is no additional opportunity for Purdue, Michigan State, or Michigan to impress the committee. But Michigan or Michigan State would still go to Nashville over Tennessee because it’s far closer to the Spartans and Wolverines than Wichita or Dallas (or Boise and San Diego, where every four seed will land).

Meanwhile Auburn faces Alabama in the SEC Tournament’s first quarterfinal game today at 1:00 PM ET. The Vols need to win, but could use some help from an Auburn (or even Cincinnati) loss. The Vols can still get to Nashville even if they’re a No. 3 seed, it just looks like they’ll need to be the first No. 3 seed.

Man, this math is a lot more fun than calculating the bubble.

The journey continues at 7:00 PM ET tonight. Go Vols.