Author Archives: Will Shelton

Not only is this the highest-ranked match-up between the Vols and Cats in their 224-game history, it’s also one of just three top five match-ups in the history of Tennessee basketball. No hyperbole necessary for this one: the facts are good enough.

Overconfident Tennessee Teams Go to Rupp Arena to Die

Last year the Vols earned their third win in Rupp since 1980, joining 1999 and 2006. The last two times the Vols won in Lexington, really good things were on the way for the program. But each time those good things were also humbled in their return to Rupp:

• In 2000 the Vols went to Rupp at 18-2 (6-1), ranked sixth in the nation. Kentucky was 14th. The Cats won by 13.
• In 2001 the Vols went to Rupp at 16-1 (3-0), ranked fourth. Kentucky was unranked. The Cats won by 10.
• In 2008 the Vols went to Rupp at 16-1 (3-0), ranked third. Kentucky was unranked. The Cats won by six.

History says you shouldn’t assume when Tennessee is the higher-ranked team, especially when the Cats are also top five material. This wouldn’t be the first Vol squad with championship aspirations to take a step back in Lexington.

What would it look like to take a step forward?

The Headlines

The thing Tennessee is very best at is still shot-blocking: third nationally in fewest blocks allowed by percentage, sixth in shot blocking on the other end of the floor. It’s an advantage we’re more accustomed to a team like Kentucky having. So what will that look like when it’s actually the Cats on the other end of the floor?

Kentucky eats eight percent of its shots, 84th nationally. That’s better than last year, but still worse than their numbers from 2014-17. Those teams all had an elite interior presence: Willie Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns, Marcus Lee, and Bam Adebayo. P.J. Washington and Reid Travis are strong on the offensive glass – more on that in a second – but not quite the interior presence of their predecessors.

A note here on the way Rick Barnes got around some of that elite size by attacking it with quicker bigs:

• 2016 Knoxville: Armani Moore 18 points, 13 rebounds
• 2016 Lexington: Armani Moore 21 points, 11 rebounds
• 2017 Knoxville: Admiral Schofield 15 points, 7 rebounds off the bench
• 2017 Lexington: Admiral Schofield 17 points, 7 rebounds off the bench
• 2018 Knoxville: Admiral Schofield 20 points, 9 rebounds
• 2018 Lexington: Admiral Schofield 12 points, 6 rebounds
• 2018 SEC Tournament: Admiral Schofield 22 points, 10 rebounds

Moore and Schofield are averaging 17.8 points and 9 rebounds against Kentucky. Schofield has become such a threat from the arc (41.1%), I’m curious to see how it will affect this part of Tennessee’s game plan.

But inside the arc, one huge factor for this game: how will it be officiated? Tennessee hasn’t been great at getting to the free throw line in league play (11th in free throw rate), but it’s still a huge part of Grant Williams’ game. Can the Vols be strong inside and get #2 to the free throw line at Rupp? What happens if they can’t? What happens if Tennessee finds itself in foul trouble?

A big magic number for beating Kentucky: teams are 3-0 when attempting more than 20 free throws against the Cats, but only Alabama won when attempting less (17). Duke got there 29 times, Seton Hall 26 (with overtime), LSU 22.

Tennessee always had the horses to score inside, but they’ve improved as a jump-shooting team in ways we didn’t count on. The Vols use great ball movement to essentially eliminate bad shots from their offense, and knock down that free throw line jumper like nobody’s business. The Vols shoot 57.7% inside the arc, fifth nationally. Sooner or later it’s not going to fall, and the Vols will need to win with defense. But at Kentucky, I’m not sure that would be enough. The way you typically beat this team is to get to the line. Perhaps when you’re number one, you beat teams however you like…but we haven’t won at Rupp Arena nearly enough for me to believe in new rules just yet.

Another question Rick Barnes will have to answer: does Tennessee send more bodies to keep Kentucky off the offensive glass, or will the Vols still try to get out and go? Tennessee plays way faster than Kentucky, but its success isn’t directly tied to keeping the other team off the offensive glass. The fewest offensive rebounds Tennessee has allowed this year is five. One was in the 46-point beat-down of Georgia. But the other was in the overtime win at Vanderbilt.

Then there’s the three-point shooting. The Vols are allowing 36.8% from the arc in league play, next-to-last in the SEC. It’s an amazing stat considering the Vols are 11-0. Kentucky is shooting 35.7% in league play, fifth-best. But here’s a stat that’s almost identical to last year for the Cats:

• 2018: 24-3 when shooting at least 29% from three, 2-8 when not
• 2019: 17-0 when shooting at least 28% from three, 3-4 when not

The Vols were one of those three losses last year (7-of-19, 36.8% in Knoxville), but the Cats cleaned it up to 7-of-16 (43.8%) in their SEC Tournament win. Kentucky doesn’t take enough threes to say they rely on them, but they also don’t need to make very many to push their abundance of talent over the edge.

So, as you’d imagine, the Vols need to defend the three better, keep Kentucky from dominating the offensive glass, and get a whistle conducive to being the more dominant team at the rim (a position we’re especially not used to in Rupp). Tennessee beat Kentucky once last year by getting to the free throw line (18-of-24 in Knoxville) and once because the Cats went cold from three (3-of-14 in Lexington). The Vols can survive one of those numbers going against them, but still probably not both.

There’s a ton of basketball left to be played here. Tennessee still needs help to win the argument vs Duke for the number one overall seed. But beyond that? I don’t think there’s anything, from the other one seeds to the SEC Championship, where Tennessee still won’t control its own destiny even with a loss here. There’s a version of Duke that just beats everybody. But aside from that, I’m not sure Tennessee will face a stiffer challenge than trying to beat this Kentucky team in Lexington. We’re already number one, and with Kentucky also in the top five you shouldn’t have to adjust expectations too much regardless of outcome. So for at least one night, the biggest prize to be won might be the sort of exclamation point in this rivalry I’m not sure I’ve ever seen from the Vols. Tennessee plays Kentucky again in two weeks. But if the Vols go to 5-3 against the Cats under Barnes, 3-1 in the last four, and two straight in Rupp Arena? While ranked number one? You’re talking about, in the moment, a level of separation between Tennessee and Kentucky that hasn’t existed in my lifetime.

Might as well add it to the list.

We all know where this is headed on Saturday. But let’s take one more minute to celebrate what these guys have done.

Tennessee, as you know, is now 23-1 (11-0). Nineteen wins in a row, nine SEC wins by double digits. But the majority of these players are also now 37-5 in their last 42 games.

Last time Tennessee beat South Carolina without Jordan Bowden. Tonight they did it with Grant Williams as the sixth-leading scorer. On the Vols, not in the game. The Vols actually lost the second half scoring 37-36, and still never let South Carolina get it to single digits.

Two of those five losses in the last 42 games – at Alabama and at Georgia last year – the Vols have seemingly eliminated from the realm of possibility. No bubble-or-worse squad has beaten Tennessee, and most haven’t come particularly close. Two of those five are to Kansas and Kentucky. And the other is where all of this is ultimately going: Loyola-Chicago, who still should get credit for making the Final Four, but also beat the Vols on a bad bounce with no Kyle Alexander. Injury can still strike – we all said a few words or held our breath when Jordan Bone went down tonight – but the depth of this team suggests no one absence is taking Tennessee out in the early rounds this time.

That’s the goal at the top of the bracket: be good enough to eliminate the bad bounce possibility, at least until the Elite Eight. And in the regular season, plus-or-minus two games when the Vols could’ve gone to number one, then ultimately did and almost stumbled immediately? The Vols are simply a machine. The opposition can even seem like they’re playing well – alarmingly so from the three point line at times, like the first half tonight – and oops, the Vols are still up 10. The best punch from teams with that chance usually gives up a transition bucket on the other end and is back down double digits a few possessions later.

There will be plenty of words to spill about Rupp Arena. That’s coming, then Vanderbilt, then five straight games against tournament opponents. This is all about to level up.

But what we’ve seen through the first 11 games of league play…is it even fair to call it a grind? For the opposition, definitely. For Tennessee, it’s just business. And it’s better than ever, longer than ever.

None of us have any experience with a 22-1 (10-0) basketball team outside our imagination. But here’s what we didn’t imagine about life at 10-0: the Vols aren’t even close to locking up the SEC.

It’s one part having both dates with Kentucky in the final seven games of the regular season, and one part LSU. Those two play tonight (7:00 PM ET, ESPN) in Lexington, the winner going to 10-1, the loser 9-2. It’s also a great lead-in to Duke at Louisville (9:00 PM), which could dramatically improve Tennessee’s chance at the number one overall seed if the Cardinals can join Gonzaga as teams who beat Duke but lost to the Vols.

Here’s life in the ACC: five teams between 8-3 and 9-1, six teams between 3-8 and 2-9. The gap is even more pronounced at the poles in the SEC: while Tennessee is 10-0 and the Cats & Tigers are 9-1, Missouri and Texas A&M are 2-8, Georgia 1-9, Vanderbilt 0-10. A&M’s one-point win over Alabama is the only victory from that four-team bottom tier that didn’t come against one of the other three.

So you can pencil in those four on Wednesday, and the Vols, Cats, Tigers, and a player to be named later for Friday in the SEC Tournament. Right now that fourth Friday team wouldn’t be one of the seven SEC schools in the Bracket Matrix, but Tennessee’s Wednesday opponent: South Carolina is 7-3 in the SEC, undefeated against everyone except, you guessed it: Tennessee, Kentucky, and LSU. The Vols turned a two-point game with 13 minutes left into a 22-point win without Jordan Bowden in Columbia despite 28 points from Chris Silva; I know we’re all looking to Saturday, but Carolina still deserves a glance.

The Vols can’t afford a stumble in the chase at the top of the bracket, but there’s also still a realistic scenario where Tennessee finishes third in the SEC. We’re absolutely trying to do more than win the league this year. But we also absolutely haven’t won the league enough – only thrice after 1982, including last year – to pretend it’s not a meaningful thing.

There’s plenty of excitement left to come in this week. But beating South Carolina is more than sidestepping a trap game; with Tennessee, LSU, and Kentucky all still in control of their own SEC destiny coming into tonight, every win counts.

The Vols opened SEC play with a 46-point win over Georgia (that one still isn’t normal, no matter what Tom Crean says about his players). Things got tight in consecutive games around Tennessee’s number one ranking: a three-point win over Alabama, and a five-point overtime win at Vanderbilt.

Tennessee’s other seven SEC wins (plus West Virginia):

• +24 at Missouri
• +11 at Florida
• +19 vs Arkansas
• +17 vs West Virginia
• +22 at South Carolina
• +17 at Texas A&M
• +12 vs Missouri
• +12 vs Florida

To be sure, things are about to level up for the Vols. That’s what we expected when league play began, and it hasn’t wavered in the least. The trip to Lexington will be an event by itself, book-ended by a last pair of trap games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Then it’s five straight against NCAA Tournament teams, three on the road, four in the KenPom Top 25.

All that’s coming, and with it a significantly higher probability of a loss or two. So let’s take a moment to appreciate what’s already happened on a now 18-game winning streak.

The Florida Gators, a program with eight Elite Eight appearances this century, came into Knoxville in desperate need of a win like this one for their bubble argument. And, as the Vols have done so many times to Florida this century, Tennessee simply turned them away.

Tennessee would push the lead to double digits, then Florida would work it back to two possessions. And then Tennessee, as it has done so many times this year, hit the kind of run we’re now comfortable saying a number one team makes: turning what feels like into a close game into, “Wait, we’re up 13,” in a matter of moments.

The Gators have been allergic to PB&J, and that was true again today: 30 points on 13-of-22 from the floor combined, and that with only four total free throw attempts for Williams and Schofield. The new normal is four guys in double figures: Bowden had 13, and Bone had 10 despite:

Rick Barnes said Jordan Bone was feeling that ankle "tweak" during the second half.

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) February 9, 2019

We’ve seen how valuable Bone’s speed is this season; here’s hoping he’s 100% in Rupp Arena.

Also, gross:

#Vols coach Rick Barnes: They had to go in there and push that bone (in his face) back out, but he seems OK. They’re making the mask today, and he should be OK to play Wednesday.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) February 9, 2019

If that quote was about me instead of Yves Pons, it would read, “They had to go in there and push that bone back out, and he’s out for the rest of his life.”

The Vols were the number two overall seed according to the selection committee today. They’re 10-0 in the SEC, but Kentucky and LSU are 9-1 (and play each other Tuesday in Lexington). Tennessee is 22-1.

The most important days are still ahead, and there’s plenty left to learn. But the Vols have been dominating the SEC’s middle and lower tiers with incredible regularity. It’s not an accomplishment that’s going to mean anything at the end of the year, but it sure is fun to watch now.

On to the Gamecocks, Wednesday night in Knoxville.

On Saturday (12:30 PM ET, CBS), the NCAA selection committee will reveal its current Top 16 seeds. It’s the third year they’ve done so in early February, and the second time the Vols will appear in it. And while last year our enthusiasm was muted after taking a 28-point beating from Alabama the day before, this time we’ll get a glimpse of how the committee sees the Vols in the race for the number one overall seed.

Committee will set out top 24 seeds, but only announce the top 16 on Saturday. Top 8 teams are settled for now, Muir said. Nos. 9 through 24 "still need a lot of discussion," he said.

— Jerry Tipton (@JerryTipton) February 6, 2019

That’s Bernard Muir, Stanford’s athletic director who serves as the selection committee chairman this year. And those top eight teams seem relatively easy to figure out, as it’s an identical list in KenPom, the Bracket Matrix, and eight-of-nine in the NET ratings: Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Michigan, Kentucky, Michigan State, and North Carolina.

There are a pair of one-loss mid-majors from Nevada and Houston who could crash the party (and Houston is seventh in NET), but I’d bet on the established names.

This isn’t worth a whole lot five weeks before the real thing – last year the Vols were the first four seed (13th) in first reveal and ended up 10th on the S-curve – but it should be an excellent indicator of how the committee views the Vols, specifically against Duke and Virginia. Where they put Gonzaga will be interesting overall, but it shouldn’t be above the Vols. But I could see Tennessee falling anywhere between one and three overall in this thing.

A few hours after the reveal, Duke and Virginia play each other again. Even if the Vols take care of business in the return match with the Gators (now 12-10 and in desperate need of a win over #1), the victor between Duke and UVA could vault the Vols in the eyes of the selection committee, if not in the AP poll.

But Tennessee will get the chance for the last word, in a sense, if Kentucky also stays hot. For the Vols and Wildcats to play twice after Duke and Virginia are done with each other is a big advantage in perception, especially if UT or UK can take full advantage with a sweep.

As for what we’ll see today, here’s a guess:

1. Duke (Washington DC)
2. Virginia (Louisville)
3. Tennessee (Kansas City)
4. Gonzaga (Anaheim)
5. Michigan
6. Kentucky
7. Michigan State
8. North Carolina

One other point about this kind of setup: as those top eight include Gonzaga and then just three conferences, the committee will have to do some gymnastics to keep the top teams from each league in separate regions. If the list above actually represented the S-curve on Selection Sunday, the Vols would be most likely to catch North Carolina at #8 to keep the Vols away from Kentucky and the Tar Heels away from Duke/UVA.

The reveal should be educational, but the Vols will still be just fine by taking care of their own business. That’s the Gators at 4:00 PM ET on ESPN. Let’s see if they hit a dozen threes this time.

Here’s one of the best examples of the difference between last season and now for the Vols.

Last season Grant Williams’ worst game, by far, was at Georgia on February 17: 1-of-8 from the floor, five points, four rebounds, fouled out in 25 minutes. And Tennessee lost 73-62, their second defeat in three games after a six-game winning streak.

An aside: a six-game winning streak is always a good qualifier for a team’s ability to win it all, since that’s what it takes to win the tournament. How many Tennessee teams had such a winning streak this century?

• 6: 2003 (NIT), 2004 (NIT), 2013 (NIT), 2018 (SEC Champs)
• 7: 2010 (Elite Eight), 2011 (started 7-0)
• 8: 2006 (NCAA 2-seed)
• 9: 2001 (started 9-0), 2007 (Sweet 16)
• 11: 2000 (started 11-0, Sweet 16), 2008 (Sweet 16)
• 16 and counting: 2019

Just one more way of saying what we’re seeing right now is significantly better than Tennessee’s best basketball in recent history, much of which was already better than anything for decades before that.

But it ended at six for last year’s team in part because Williams struggled at Georgia against what was ultimately an 11-point loss to an 18-15 team.

Compare that to this year, when his worst game is again obvious: at Missouri on January 8. In that one, Williams was 1-of-8 from the floor with four points, one rebound, and fouled out in 22 minutes. Missouri was, at the time, a team on the bubble.

And the Vols won by 24.

We’ve said for almost a year now that the first question for any team facing Tennessee is, “Can they guard Grant Williams?” Sometimes the answer is simply no, specifically with teams like Vanderbilt but generally more often than not. But some teams, like Alabama and certainly Missouri the first time, do find answers.

When Williams struggled against Georgia last year, the Vols got strong performances from Kyle Alexander (10 points, 13 rebounds) and Lamonte Turner off the bench (14 points, 4-of-8 from the arc). But it wasn’t enough. This year, when Williams struggles – which is basically the Missouri game and that’s it – the Vols have better answers in quality and quantity. Against the Tigers, Tennessee got 17 points and five assists from Jordan Bone, 14 points and 17 rebounds (!) from Kyle Alexander, 16-and-9 from Admiral Schofield, and 20 points from Jordan Bowden (on a night he went 0-for-4 from the arc) off the bench, just for good measure.

Grant Williams is an incredible player on a national level the likes of which we haven’t seen in a very long time. No Vol has earned first-team All-American honors since Dale Ellis in 1983. Allan Houston and Chris Lofton both made second-team multiple times; Tony White and Ron Slay made third once. Williams is on pace to have his number retired.

This both is and isn’t a fun question to think about…but I also think Tennessee would still be really good without him.

Aside from two signature wins coming with him fouled out (the title clincher in the rematch vs Georgia last year, and taking down #1 Gonzaga this year), every other player on this team is better than they were when the Vols lost on Williams’ off day in Athens last season. And Jordan Bone & Kyle Alexander are significantly better.

So the Vols may very well run into some teams that can limit Williams and/or foul him out; Missouri might do it again tonight. But Tennessee’s ability to both win and excel even when Williams isn’t on the floor is remarkable. The individual talents of Tennessee’s best player and the collective strength of the team even when he isn’t on the floor combine for a higher ceiling than anything we’ve seen before.

It continues late tonight: 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2 as Missouri comes to Knoxville.

Go Vols.

Very, as it turns out. That’s where the Vols would be with a win tomorrow.

By my count, only seven SEC teams have started 8-0 in league play since 2000. Kentucky did it in 2003, 2005, 2012, and 2015. Florida did it in 2007, 2013, and 2014. Every one of those teams made the Elite Eight, four made the Final Four, and two won it all.

More rare in the SEC is a 20-1 start overall. Since 2000, John Calipari’s Kentucky teams have done it thrice:

• The John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins 2010 team, which started 27-1 before losing at Tennessee on February 27. They lost in the Elite Eight.
• The Anthony Davis 2012 team, which started 32-1 before losing to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament finals. They won the title.
• The undefeated 2015 team, which started 38-0 before losing to Wisconsin in the Final Four.

There’s also a team I’d forgotten: the 2004 Mississippi State Bulldogs started 21-1 and finished the regular season 25-2 with a one-point loss to Kentucky and a four-point loss to Alabama. They lost to Vanderbilt by four in overtime in the first game of the SEC Tournament. Still, they earned a two seed as SEC Champions…and lost to Xavier in the second round by 15. Sometimes the story just doesn’t end the way you want it to. But if you’re looking for another example of how special this season is, consider that no Florida team in this century – a program with two titles, two other Final Four appearances, and four additional Elite Eight appearances since 2000 – has ever started a season 20-1.

Tennessee isn’t the only team with an easier path to the SEC title

Plenty of word count has been spilled for Tennessee’s back-loaded schedule, still two weeks away. The current average KenPom of Tennessee’s first 11 SEC opponents: 85.1. The current average of six of Tennessee’s final seven SEC opponents: 19.8 (plus the second game with Vanderbilt).

There was some thought that the Vols would be so far ahead of the pack through those first 11 games, it wouldn’t much matter. But two things have happened over the last couple weeks: Kentucky really got its act together, and LSU kept winning.

The Wildcats are now eighth in KenPom and a two seed in the Bracket Matrix; those two games should be the showdown we expected all along. But keep an eye on LSU, especially because of their schedule. Among these three contenders, here are the teams each one plays twice:

• Tennessee: Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt
• Kentucky: Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
• LSU: Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas A&M

There’s clear separation in the difficulty of Kentucky’s league schedule and Tennessee’s. But LSU’s is the real gift: the Tigers don’t play any of the league’s top five teams in the Bracket Matrix twice (Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, plus LSU themselves). They’re already 7-0 and could put up a really big number; KenPom projects the Vols to win the league at 15-3, but LSU’s projection is just one game behind.

For history, for what could be a surprisingly-tight league chase, and for the all-important one seeds…every game still counts. On to the Aggies.

Relegated to the Bottom

Last year Texas A&M started 11-1, its only loss to Arizona. They were sixth in KenPom. And then they started league play 0-5.

They got healthy and rallied, winning seven of their last ten to earn a seven seed in the NCAA Tournament. They shocked North Carolina in the second round with a 21-point win, then got rocked by Michigan in the Sweet 16 by 27.

And then everyone left, especially everyone tall. 6’10” Robert Williams is with the Boston Celtics, 6’10” Tyler Davis also turned pro early, and 6’10” Tonny Trocha-Morelos graduated. Guard Duane Wilson also graduated, and 6’9″ DJ Hogg is in the G-League. Then guard Admon Gilder, who was supposed to lead this team, had a blood clot issue that has sidelined him for the entire season.

So, yeah: the Aggies are 8-11 (1-6), though they did beat Kansas State in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge last weekend. But they are part of a fast-growing basement in the league this year, victimized by injury to their best players (Missouri, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M) and the success of the rest of the league. The SEC could be starting to see some of what happens in the ACC regularly: when the top 70% of your league is so good, the bottom tier can look really bad. I’d imagine you can get really good odds, if they exist, on the first day of the SEC Tournament featuring Missouri, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Georgia. Those four are currently 3-25 in league play.

Texas A&M is one of the worst three-point shooting teams in college basketball: 28.5%, 341st nationally, and 26.2% in SEC play. They also give up the highest percentage from the arc (37.1%) in league play. That’s a quick and easy recipe for disaster. Because of their lack of size they also get pounded on the glass, and are 345th in giving up blocked shots. All of this is bad news when playing the number one team in the country.

They do defend well without fouling, best in the SEC so far in that department. If they can take the free throw line away from Tennessee, perhaps there’s a path to keeping it interesting. But this one just looks like it has bad news written all over it for Texas A&M.

It’s a later start than what we’ve been playing: Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN. Here’s hoping February treats us well.

Go Vols.

Jordan Bowden tweaked his knee pregame and did not play. Kyle Alexander was in foul trouble early and often, finishing with two points. That opened the door for Chris Silva, who had 28 points and 10 rebounds. Columbia was rocking as South Carolina looked to go to 6-1 in league play.

The Vols won by 22.

Tennessee’s nine-point halftime lead was slowly whittled to two with 13 minutes to play. The Vols hit an 11-3 run over the next four minutes, and a Derrick Walker and-one made it 14 at the under eight timeout. With two of Tennessee’s top six players down, guys like Walker and John Fulkerson (six points, three rebounds) stepped up. When South Carolina threatened, Tennessee completely erased it in less than five minutes.

A game that felt like it could expose Tennessee’s weaknesses and become the loss that teaches a lesson…just wasn’t. After the first seven minutes, the Vols led by multiple possessions until the aforementioned South Carolina run, then immediately pushed it back out again. And ultimately, Columbia only rocked for free Chick-fil-A.

Rick Barnes: "I think we've got through the toughest part of being No. 1 ranked. The attention around it."

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) January 30, 2019

This is plenty of fun, but the real goal remains twofold: generally, keep getting better, and specifically, get as far up the bracket as possible. That starts with a one seed and ends with a path to Minneapolis that goes back through Columbia and then Louisville. The Vols are more likely to have some losses left in them than not, and on paper tonight easily could’ve been one without Bowden and Alexander. The fact that it wasn’t, at all, is a testament to the reality of this team’s goals.

Grant Williams scoring 23 points isn’t news these days, but Admiral Schofield’s return to form was. This was a vintage PB&J game: 18-of-32 from the floor, 10-of-13 from the line, 47 points and 18 rebounds combined. Lamonte Turner stayed hot with 13 points and three more threes. And Jordan Bone added 19 points and nine assists.

This is apparently life now, and life is good. It goes to Texas A&M next, where the Vols can set the program record for consecutive wins at 16. They can also get their 20th win of the season. On February 2.

Here’s a list of Tennessee teams that did not win 20 games in the regular season:

• 2003: Ron Slay’s senior year, robbed on Selection Sunday
• 2009: Won the SEC East, came closer to winning the SEC Tournament than any Tennessee team in the last 40 years
• 2011: Made the NCAA Tournament despite Bruce Pearl being suspended like 35 games over BBQ.
• 2012: NIT one seed in Cuonzo Martin’s first year
• 2013: NIT one seed in Cuonzo Martin’s second year

This is life now.

Go Vols.

We’re less attuned to it at number one, but teams hovering around the top five taking a loss continues to be a big deal. We’re focused on staying atop the AP poll right now, but the real chase is for the four number one seeds (and, if Tennessee continues to play well, the hunt for the number one overall seed and the Columbia/Louisville road to the Final Four). This weekend it was #6 Michigan State, dropped by 10 at Purdue.

This is oversimplification and using too much football logic for basketball, but until everyone has at least four losses or so, it’s helpful to look at things this way:

• One-Loss Teams: Tennessee, Virginia, Michigan (plus Nevada and Houston)
• Two-Loss Teams: Duke, Gonzaga (plus Buffalo)
• Three-Loss Teams: Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, LSU, Cincinnati, Marquette (plus five mid-majors)

Here are the number one seeds from the last three years:

Year	Team	Losses
2018	Virginia	2
2018	Villanova	4
2018	Kansas	7
2018	Xavier	5
2017	Villanova	3
2017	Kansas	4
2017	North Carolina	7
2017	Gonzaga	1
2016	Kansas	4
2016	North Carolina	6
2016	Virginia	7
2016	Oregon	6

The average one seed in the last three years has 4.67 losses, an even five if you remove Gonzaga from the equation. 2016 and beyond is a good measure, because it includes all the major conference expansion, and keeps an anomaly from 2015 out of the equation, when all four one seeds had nine total losses. Remember, these numbers include conference tournaments, when most teams will take an additional loss.

As we turn toward February, six teams continue to separate themselves from the pack: Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan, Michigan State, Tennessee, and Virginia. There’s some distance between these six (and Virginia and everyone else) in KenPom. They’re the top six teams in the polls and the Bracket Matrix. Three blue bloods – Kansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina – could still get hot and make their way onto the one line, but are a step behind for now. Kentucky has the best chance there, with only three losses to four for Kansas and UNC, head-to-head wins over both, and two shots at the number one team in the nation. But KenPom still currently projects all of the top six to go to their conference tournaments with between three and five losses.

Long way to go, and the Vols can only handle the business in front of them. Tennessee doesn’t need any help to climb the polls, but any time a team like Michigan State loses, it helps them on Selection Sunday.

Hopefully not the last time we’re in Columbia

When league play began, Tennessee’s schedule looked solid: you always know what you’re getting into with Kentucky, the Gators were back in a home-and-home, and Vanderbilt & Missouri were on the bubble. South Carolina looked like an obvious rebuild, and maybe the worst team in the conference.

Instead, Vanderbilt and South Carolina have switched places: the Commodores have lost seven in a row, and the Gamecocks are 5-1 in league play.

These guys are battle tested, having faced Michigan and Virginia (back-to-back!) in the non-conference. And they didn’t get to 5-1 in the SEC because of their schedule: the Gamecocks have beaten Florida, Mississippi State, and Auburn.

What’s been the difference for South Carolina in January opposed to their 5-7 start in the non-conference? For one, opponents cooled off from the arc a little: after giving up 100-of-268 (37.3%) from three in non-conference play, the Gamecocks are allowing just 47-of-144 (32.6%) in league play. South Carolina has also been the victim of some really good performances at the free throw line (via Sports Reference):

• Stony Brook 19-of-23 (82.6%), Carolina lost by 2
• Providence 28-of-34 (82.4%), Carolina lost by 9
• LSU 32-of-35 (91.4%), Carolina lost by 22, but still, 32-of-35!
• Oklahoma State 23-of-29 (79.3%), Carolina lost by 4

As you can see, that’s a lot of free throw attempts. This may not be what you associate with a Frank Martin team, but South Carolina will get up and go: 26th in tempo overall, and fastest in the SEC in average offensive possession length. As a result, they foul a lot and get fouled a lot.

Tennessee put Lamonte Turner in the starting lineup against West Virginia; he clearly liked it with a sizzling 8-of-10 from the field and 23 points in 33 minutes. Yves Pons scaled back to only 10 minutes. So right now Tennessee is giving six players 25-32 minutes, basically playing a primary lineup with Kyle Alexander and the three guard crunch-time lineup from last year. I haven’t seen the Vols look fatigued yet, which is something worth keeping an eye on. If you’re in good enough shape for a glorified six-man rotation, the biggest problem obviously becomes foul trouble. And that we’ve seen plenty of this season.

Any given game could come down to what the Vols get from Yves Pons and John Fulkerson in extended minutes if someone else is in foul trouble. That may seem like a minor thing to worry about now, but it becomes a big worry if it happens in the tournament. In our own history, we’ve seen Tennessee on the other side of beating an elite team playing a short bench: the Vols don’t have anyone as talented as Evan Turner, but Tennessee beat that Ohio State team by getting more from their 10-man rotation than Ohio State got from its glorified six. In an up-tempo game with a Gamecock team prone to foul and get fouled, we might get another look at how the Vols function when one or more of those top six have to stay off the floor for longer periods of time. File it away.

South Carolina, of course, is a lot of Chris Silva – 13.1 points and 6.9 rebounds in only 24.7 minutes, because he too can’t stay out of foul trouble – but freshman A.J. Lawson is giving them quite a bit as well with 13.2 points. As a freshman playing fast, his shot selection is sometimes an issue (averaging more than five threes a game despite shooting 29.9% from the arc). But we’ve already seen Tennessee catch a cold-shooting team on a hot night.

Despite the 5-1 start, South Carolina is a very long way from the bubble if the NET ratings work at all the same way as RPI. The Gamecocks are currently 111th in NET. Best way to climb the ladder, of course, is beat the number one team in the country. As we enter week two atop the polls, the Vols should have a better idea of what kind of energy and performance they’ll get from every opponent, especially on the road. This team should be playing with more confidence than Vanderbilt and West Virginia as well. KenPom likes the Vols by a dozen, but the Vegas line is only -8.5.

Earlier start tonight: 6:30 PM on the SEC Network. Go Vols.