Author Archives: Will Shelton

The Raiders come to us from the Patriot League, where they started 13-10 (5-5). And then, bang: eight straight wins to finish the season, then a clean run through the conference tournament. Including all three Patriot League tournament games, Colgate won seven of its last eight by double digits.

Before all that they lost at Syracuse by 21, at Penn State by 11, and at Pittsburgh by 14. KenPom has them at 129th overall; our closest comparison there is Georgia, but I wouldn’t think of Colgate in terms of a team we beat by 46.

Colgate knows how to score. Five games with 30+ three-point attempts, 39.1% on the year (13th nationally). And they share it:

• 6’0″ Jordan Burns: 70-of-183 (38.3%)
• 6’8″ Will Rayman: 64-of-143 (44.8%)
• 6’10” Rapolas Ivanauskas: 42-of-97 (43.3%) (!)
• 6’3″ Jack Ferguson: 53-of-128 (41.4%)

They’re efficient inside the arc too: 53.9%, 46th nationally. Burns is a great facilitator, 28th nationally in assist rate, and just scored 35 in the Patriot League final. And they get good work inside the arc from 6’9″ Dana Batt and 6’8″ Malcolm Regisford. This team has good size and uses it well at all points on the offensive end.

Colgate doesn’t give or take at the free throw line. This will be interesting when dealing with Grant Williams. The Raiders are 284th in free throw rate, and 65th on the defensive end of that equation: they don’t foul, and they don’t get fouled. That suggests far more jump shots, especially when you have 6’8″ and 6’10” guys taking that many threes. Only 16% of Colgate’s points come via the stripe, and only 17% of their opponent’s points.

Playing Tennessee could change all this, of course. When playing above their level in non-conference, the Raiders were -20 in free throw attempts vs Syracuse, -14 vs South Florida, -11 vs Penn State, and -9 vs Pitt. That’s a comforting stat, if Tennessee is disciplined enough to take advantage of it and not get into another three-point shooting contest.

Turnovers have been an issue. The Raiders give it away on 19.3% of possessions, 232nd nationally, and allow a steal on 10.5% of possessions, 327th nationally.

Colgate should have a hard time stopping Tennessee’s offense, no doubt. But the best way for Tennessee to win is consistent with the best basketball they’ll need to advance: lock it down defensively. Do not allow a team that’s won 11 in a row and loves the three to get hot. Do not allow a team that’s won 11 in a row and loves the three to get hot. Do not allow a team that’s won 11 in a row and loves the three to get hot. Do not.

The Vols haven’t been far enough up the bracket to be in this situation often, but did a nice job of it last year with Wright State: teams seeded 14-16 have some happy-to-be-here in their DNA. The sooner you bring it out, the better.

I didn’t see most of the game today; maybe that was a blessing. I know we’ve spent a great deal of time over the last few weeks talking about brackets and No. 1 seeds; the only path Tennessee has left there is to hope the line about the selection committee not having time to care about Sunday games is fact and not fiction. But wherever the Vols end up now – No. 1 or No. 2, Louisville or Anaheim – they have nothing to do except look in the mirror.

And on that mirror, I’d write “Auburn”.

The Vols need to see themselves: a team that beat Gonzaga and Kentucky twice, spent four weeks at number one, can beat anybody and didn’t lose a single game outside Quad 1. They need to see the team that beat Kentucky on Saturday.

And they need to see Auburn, to be reminded that no one will give it to you.

Auburn is a good basketball team; on the right day, they’re a great team, and the numbers say they were plenty great today. Bruce Pearl is a great coach, we know. No one can take any of that from them.

But in both of Tennessee’s meetings with Auburn, we’re left looking back in that mirror. On the road, the Vols took the invitation to jack threes and came up four points short after a back-to-back stretch of their best basketball in beating Kentucky and Mississippi State. Today in Nashville, the Vols turned it over 17 times and surrendered 13 offensive rebounds. That’s thirty extra possessions. Auburn turned it over seven times, and the Vols had four offensive rebounds. You can do the math. And all of this happened after a back-to-back stretch of their best basketball in beating Mississippi State and Kentucky.

Both times, the Vols faced the Tigers feeling great about themselves, with a championship at stake. Both times, the Vols gave it away.

No one will give it to you.

This Tennessee team is good enough to take it. The lesson, now 34 games into this season and left at the championship altar twice, is you have to take it every night, every possession.

Failure to live that truth cost the Vols two rings.

There’s one ring left.

No one will give it to you. Tennessee has to look in the mirror and remember Auburn. And when they’ve taken a long, hard look at that, they’ll still see a team that is more than capable of taking it.

Keep getting better.

The Vols have beaten better Kentucky teams. John Wall and Demarcus Cousins in 2010. A Final Four squad with Jamal Mashburn in 1993. But I’m not sure a Tennessee win over Kentucky has ever meant as much; I know it hasn’t in my post-Ernie/Bernie lifetime.

A lot of it is a No. 1 seed, which would be the program’s first. We’ve still got to get through Auburn and the selection committee tomorrow, but the Vols have to be considered a favorite to earn one now.

Tennessee was 5-4 against Kentucky under Rick Barnes coming into today. They won at Rupp last year, which is just below the Elite Eight and SEC Tournament titles in frequency around here. That one helped secure an SEC title and solidify this group of players on the national scene. And it really was the national scene today: the biggest game in the 3:30 PM window, in what felt like a play-in for a No. 1 seed.

And Kentucky was good. March will decide how good, ultimately, by UK’s own standards. But all five starters scored in double figures, and Kentucky shot 53.6% from the floor two weeks after making only 14 shots in Knoxville. And the Cats shot 5-of-11 (45.5%) from the arc. This year Kentucky was 24-0 when shooting at least 28%; the last time they lost shooting at least 45% was at Texas A&M in overtime three years ago.

Kentucky went up eight with 2:58 to play. It didn’t feel familiar, because nothing about the weekend in the SEC Tournament is familiar for us yet. But it didn’t feel out of place: good game, good effort from Tennessee, let’s go to the bracket and try to win our way there. The SEC Tournament isn’t Rupp, but Kentucky isn’t the away team either. And in the kind of environment we saw today, good Kentucky teams are expected to get the best of good Tennessee teams.

But this Tennessee team is something more. We’ve seen it all year. And it never looked better than today.

Here’s the final sequence from the 2:58 mark:

• Grant Williams two free throws, Vols down six
• Tyler Herro turnover
• Grant Williams and-one, Vols down three
• PJ Washington bucket, Vols down five
• Admiral Schofield three, Vols down two
• Lamonte Turner steal
• Grant Williams three, Vols up one
• PJ Washington tip-in, Vols down one
• Admiral Schofield miss, Grant Williams offensive rebound, timeout
• Lamonte Turner three, Vols up two
• PJ Washington miss, offensive rebound, miss, Jordan Bone rebound
• Cue the free throws
• Hit the music

PJ Washington was great today, 16 points on 6-of-11 shooting in only 20 foul-plagued minutes. The tip he missed in the final seconds reminded me of Tim Duncan in Game 7 of the 2013 NBA Finals. You just expect him to make that shot. And he missed.

Down the stretch, Kentucky’s best players didn’t convert. Instead, Tennessee’s best players made the best plays in the best win of the best year.

Admiral Schofield adding to his legend. Grant Williams taking Reid Travis with an and-one, a corner three, and a monstrous offensive rebound. Lamonte Turner doing what Lamonte Turner loves to do at the end of games. Jordan Bone grabbing that last rebound and going 4-for-4 at the line.

Our old RTT colleague and friend of the blog Chris Pendley likened it to a Hulk Hogan performance at the end of the match: take your best shots, but in the end we simply won’t sell them. Right hands, big boot, leg drop. 1-2-3. Whatcha gonna do.

There is so much that’s still new in this season. Having Tennessee’s best be better than Kentucky’s on a neutral floor in a year when both are battling against each other for a No. 1 seed? Having it be Tennessee’s players that make all those players in a game like this at the end?

This team simply keeps getting better. And that’s good, because they’re less than 24 hours away from a chance to win the SEC Tournament for the first time in my life, and many of yours. And then they’re headed to the NCAA Tournament, probably atop a region for the first time ever. And then…

Go Vols.

https://twitter.com/Vol_Hoops/status/1107058539959324672

It belongs in a museum.

.@admiralelite15 CAN FLY ✈️#SECTourney pic.twitter.com/HtfBhp6wYI

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) March 16, 2019

So, look. This is a year when hyperbole is available on a regular basis for Tennessee. Jordan Bowden’s dunk at Vanderbilt is one of the best I’ve ever seen by a Tennessee player. And it came at a crucial moment, with the Vols down five with under four to play.

But this thing last night was a masterpiece.

• As Lamonte Turner pointed out postgame, Schofield jumped off his right foot and dunked right-handed. I didn’t even notice that in the carnage.
• The perfect timing of, “Building ready to exploOOOOOOODE!” on commentary.
• The perfect follow-up of total silence from the announce crew, which is so hard to do. Kudos to those guys for not being bigger than the moment itself.
• The baseline ref’s extra body language in calling the blocking foul.
• Schofield’s wrestling heel walkaway.

Also, a credit to the victim, freshman Robert Woodard, for trying to take that charge. Defensive effort should always be applauded in moments like this, in a big game the Bulldogs were on the verge of watching slip away. That kid tried to make a play. And his feet weren’t far from making it happen. That’s the risk required: sometimes you’re the hero, and sometimes you’re on the tracks when the train’s coming through.

Tennessee’s train, by the way, was incredibly efficient last night. Late fouls put the Vols on the line 15 times for the night, but UT’s first free throw came with 10:53 left in the game. But it felt more weird than wrong: the game had great flow with few fouls on either side, and Tennessee was getting the shots they wanted.

On the night, the Vols had 66 field goal attempts, fourth-most in regulation on the season. And only 11 of them were threes, second-fewest on the season.

After taking Auburn’s bait in the regular season finale, the Vols imposed their will on a good Mississippi State team for the second time in ten days. Obviously Schofield (20 points on 9-of-12) and Williams (16 on 8-of-17) were terrific. But getting not just Jordan Bone, but Lamonte Turner active inside the arc was critical.

For Turner, it wasn’t just the assists (eight, with Bone’s nine). Lamonte is an incredibly efficient scorer inside the arc: 35-of-58 (60.3%) in league play, eighth-best in the conference. Tennessee’s guards created in ways that sucked in the defense, and one of the biggest beneficiaries was Kyle Alexander: 16 points and seven offensive rebounds.

It’s not rocket science, but Tennessee’s offense has been so good all year in so many ways, it’s easy to forget what brings out their very best. Last night was good, old-fashioned basketball: guards penetrate and distribute, big men clean it up, let your two best players take the most shots.

None of that will come as easy against Kentucky.

We Could Get Used To This

The Vols find themselves playing the weekend in the SEC Tournament for just the sixth time since 1991. But as it’s now also the sixth time since 2008, perhaps we can start to put some of these old ghosts to bed.

This will also be the third weekend meeting between Tennessee and Kentucky of the decade. In 2010 on Saturday, the Vols were down six with nine minutes to play, but lost by 29 (and then both teams made the Elite Eight). Last year on Sunday, the Vols turned back a 17-point Kentucky lead in the first half to take the lead briefly in the second, and pulled back with one on a Jordan Bone shot with 1:26 to play. But Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished off an incredible afternoon (29 points and 7 rebounds) down the stretch, and Kentucky won by five.

This year the regular season meeting in Rupp Arena was the highest-ranked Tennessee-Kentucky game ever, the one in Knoxville perhaps the best performance by the Vols all season. But this one feels like it has the most at stake.

Virginia and Gonzaga are both already down this week; the Cavs should still be a No. 1 seed, and Gonzaga should still be headed to Anaheim at No. 1 or No. 2. Duke’s narrow win over North Carolina makes things more complicated than the alternative for the selection committee; a Florida State victory in the ACC finals tonight would only help the winner of the Vols and Wildcats. But right now, both Tennessee and Kentucky are ahead of North Carolina in NET, and the Tar Heels now have six losses to Tennessee’s four and Kentucky’s five.

The door feels rightfully open for the winner of Tennessee and Kentucky to earn a No. 1 seed, with Kansas City the most likely destination. But I don’t think anything is off the table at this point; if Duke falls to Florida State and the Vols win the SEC Tournament, there’s a scenario where Tennessee could go to Louisville as the No. 1 seed.

The Cats remain uncomplicated: 24-0 when shooting at least 28% from three, 3-5 when they don’t. Free throws have been the biggest disparity between these two teams this year: Kentucky is 42-of-62 (67.7%) in our two meetings, Tennessee 23-of-32 (71.9%). Tennessee doesn’t have to have it to win – the Vols (in)famously shot zero free throws in the second half against the Cats in Knoxville and won by 19 – and aren’t built to have everything go through the free throw line anyway, as we saw last night. The biggest thing Tennessee can do is defend their butts off, again. Kentucky made 14 shots in Knoxville. This time they’ll have Reid Travis back in the mix. But if Tennessee is going to beat Kentucky to earn a No. 1 seed – and if Tennessee is going to advance deep into March – it will be their defense that makes the difference.

Tennessee’s program, largely because of this team and its coaching staff, has played itself into an opportunity like this. We’ve earned the right to be here. Now they’ll have to earn the right to advance. And it’s no surprise to find Kentucky on the other side of the equation once more.

The Vols and Cats will go approximately 20 minutes after the conclusion of Florida and Auburn, which tips at 1:00 PM ET. A No. 1 seed and a chance to win the SEC Tournament for the first time since 1979 are on the table. This is March.

Go Vols.

How much of Gonzaga’s loss is everyone else’s gain?

If the Zags are, in fact, a No. 2 seed now…they’re still almost certainly headed to Anaheim. With the Pac-12 looking like a one-or-two-bid league, none of the other contenders on the top two lines of the bracket are west of Texas. So even if a fourth No. 1 seed is now open, whoever earns it will be looking at a somewhat similar fate as teams near the bottom of the No. 2 line a week ago: headed west with a chance to meet Gonzaga in the Elite Eight, now with a slightly easier path to get there. “Teams will remain in or as close to their areas of natural interest as possible.” And since Gonzaga is the only candidate for whom Anaheim is of even remote natural interest…you get the idea.

With all the favorites winning in the ACC Tournament on Thursday, the bigger question now shifts to, “Will the selection committee put three teams from the same conference as No. 1 seeds?” It’s happened once before in the 64-team format: in 2009, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and UConn all sat atop the bracket from the Big East. Since then, however, we’ve only seen two years with two No. 1 seeds from the same conference: 2016 (North Carolina & Virginia) and 2018 (Villanova & Xavier).

If Virginia’s locked in, does it matter who wins between Duke and North Carolina? It seems less complicated for the Blue Devils to prevail: everyone in the free world wants to put full-strength Duke atop the bracket, especially after Zion Williamson went 13-of-13 from the floor in his return last night. A Duke win would remove some of the luster from Carolina’s pair of regular season victories in the rivalry, as they were Zion-free, and the Tar Heels already trail in NET (seventh) and KenPom (fifth). Another Carolina win would almost certainly ensure they’re a No. 1 seed, but it’s just tougher for me to see the committee putting Duke on the No. 2 line.

Of course, none of this should matter if Tennessee wins the SEC Tournament.

About that…

You know the drill by now: the Vols won the SEC Tournament when it was reinstated in 1979…and that’s it. Tennessee made the semifinals from 1982-84 and again in 1989, and famously made a run to the title game behind Allan Houston in 1991. Since then, the Vols made it to Saturday in 2008, 2010, and 2014, and to Sunday in 2009 and last season. Four times in the last 20 years the Vols received a double-bye, but lost their first game on Friday (1999, 2000, 2006, 2012). This is a historic season, but just winning tonight still qualifies as noteworthy when it comes to the Vols and this tournament.

Tennessee beat Mississippi State ten days ago in one of its finest performances of the season, 71-54 in Knoxville. The Bulldogs shot 36.6% from the floor, 4-of-20 from the arc, and 12-of-22 from the line. They also turned it over 17 times, a signature performance from the defense the Vols will need to advance this month. But last night, Mississippi State burned it down: 53.4% from the floor, 11-of-25 (44%) from the arc, and 7-of-9 at the line in an 80-54 beat down of Texas A&M.

The worst part about the double bye is catching a team that’s good and warmed up in a new arena. Last night’s performance certainly qualifies for Mississippi State. To get to the No. 1 seed conversation and another potential rubber match with Kentucky, the Vols have to go through the Bulldogs first. It will require the poise this Tennessee team should know well by now.

Put the coffee on. We’ll see you tonight.

As the Vols entered the NCAA Tournament last year, there was no blueprint. SEC Champions at 25-8 (13-5) and a No. 3 seed, Tennessee was capable of winning games in a variety of ways. Turns out we didn’t have the drawings for Kyle Alexander’s absence and divine intervention on a Loyola-Chicago bounce. You just never know in March. But that team had as good of a chance to advance in the NCAA Tournament as any in Tennessee’s history.

And, as we’ve known for months now, this year’s team is more than just better than last year.

March works both ways. The only Tennessee team to make the Elite Eight in 2010 lost five times in the regular season by double digits, then by 29 to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament. They survived No. 11 seed San Diego State in round one, and took advantage of an upset in thrashing No. 14 Ohio in round two. And then they played one of the finest games in school history in beating No. 2 Ohio State, and were seconds away from the Final Four against No. 5 Michigan State.

Sometimes you get that path to the promised land: 11, 14, two, and five. Or the one that was in front of the Vols last season: 14, 11, then what would have been seven and nine in Atlanta.

Sometimes you get chalk. The next-closest Tennessee team to the promised land was 2007, who survived a knock-down, drag-out No. 4 vs No. 5 game with Virginia in the second round, then had a 20-point lead on No. 1 Ohio State before giving it away at the free throw line.

And sometimes you get 2014: millimeters away from firing the coach, then winning in overtime in the First Four, then beat downs of No. 6 UMass and another thrashing of another Cinderella in No. 14 Mercer in round two. And then falling to No. 2 Michigan in the Sweet 16 on a hotly disputed charge call.

When we throw around, “The best in school history,” how do we define it? In recent years, was it 2008? Ranked number one after another of the finest games in school history at Memphis, outright SEC Champions, but vanquished by 19 points in a bad match-up in the Sweet 16? Is it Pearl’s first team, easily one of the most memorable seasons in school history, who fought their way to a No. 2 seed only to fall in round two?

Seasons are always heavily influenced by where they end in March, but as all of them end with a loss save the champion, you have to be sure to celebrate appropriately along the way. Last year’s Vols got the nets and the SEC rings at 13-5. This year’s Vols went 15-3 and will come away empty handed on that particular piece of jewelry.

But everything, ultimately, is about giving yourself the best chance to win in the bracket. Not all jewelry is created equal. Build your team to produce its best basketball at the right time, and win enough games to make that path as easy as possible.

We love KenPom for many reasons, but one is its objectivity. So when ranking the best teams in recent history, it looks like this in that metric:

Season	KenPom	Finish
2014	23.69	S16
2018	22.27	R2
2008	22.17	S16
2006	19.44	R2
2010	18.50	E8
2007	18.29	S16

Cuonzo Martin’s last team, play-for-play, rated the best of this era before this season began. It lost a ton of close games (0-6 in games decided by six points or less) and rated 341st in luck in KenPom. But it was also capable of evisceration, as it did to Virginia by 35 and plenty of other teams down the stretch. This team, after all, had more NBA players on it than any in Tennessee’s recent history.

Meanwhile the 2008 Vols – 13-3 in games decided by six points or less – finished fourth in luck in KenPom. The 2010 Vols weren’t far behind at 20th, going 6-1 in games decided by six points or less before falling to Michigan State.

Which season is best or most memorable? Much of that is up to you to decide. You never know in March.

Here’s what we do know: no matter what happens in the SEC Tournament, this Tennessee team will be better positioned to make a run to the Final Four than any I’ve ever seen.

Tennessee’s current KenPom rating is 27.93. That would make them a 4-6 point favorite over 2008, 2014, and last season; they’d be almost a 10-point favorite over the 2010 Elite Eight squad. And they’re 145th in luck, going 4-3 in games decided by six points or less. As always, the best way to win close games is not to play them. And Tennessee is playing them against the right teams: five of those seven close game opponents are going to the NCAA Tournament, six if Alabama can get in.

This team has some incredible parts. Grant Williams just won SEC Player of the Year back-to-back. Admiral Schofield and Jordan Bone also earned first-or-second team all-conference honors. In the post-Ernie/Bernie era, only three Tennessee teams have placed three players on first-or-second All-SEC teams:

• 1981: Gary Carter, Dale Ellis, Howard Wood
• 2008: Chris Lofton, Tyler Smith, JaJuan Smith
• 2019: Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, Jordan Bone

We have seen incredible individual efforts from these guys. Grant Williams with 43 at Vanderbilt. Admiral Schofield with 30 against Gonzaga. Jordan Bone with 27 against Kentucky. But Tennessee’s best basketball still does not follow any individual blueprint. This goes the other way too: Lamonte Turner certainly struggled from the arc in Tennessee’s losses, but he also went a combined 0-for-7 in Tennessee’s two best performances of the season against Kentucky and Mississippi State, and had a signature performance in one of Tennessee’s best wins at Ole Miss.

We’re well-versed in what gets Tennessee beat: opponents getting to the free throw line far more often than the Vols. What qualifies as Tennessee’s best basketball is, in part, the opposite of this: great defense without putting the other team on the line. What the Vols did against Kentucky and Mississippi State is what will get them through in March.

But the Vols are also more than great individuals on the other end of the floor. The Vols are 24-1 when they have at least 15 assists, 3-3 when they don’t.

For all the strengths of their individuals, Tennessee’s best basketball still comes when the team flows together: a commitment to great defense without fouling, and an offense that flows through good ball movement creating great shots. One fly, we all fly indeed.

All of these things can be true at the same time:

• The Vols were on the wrong end of an unfortunate call in the final minutes of a big game. An Auburn three should have been ruled basket interference.
• There are plenty of other things Tennessee could have done better to win; limiting turnovers (13) and not getting carried away from the arc (28 attempts) were a good place to start today.
• The Vols are a jump-shooting team, and a really good one at that. As a result, they don’t get to the free throw line as much (29.8% free throw rate in league play, 13th in the SEC).
• Vol opponents were whistled for 20+ fouls 10 times this season. All of them came in November-January.

The Vols got a bad call. The Vols did plenty of other things wrong. The Vols don’t get to the line very often because they’re a great jump-shooting team. The Vols don’t get to the line as much as they did earlier this year.

All of it was a factor in Auburn’s 84-80 win. And all of it could be a factor in the games that matter most. And those games are coming soon.

When you’re trying to win the big prize – a position Tennessee is still getting used to – everything that precedes the NCAA Tournament is about producing your best basketball for those three weeks. And the more you win, the easier the path in the bracket.

Tennessee’s best basketball was the last two games: 71-52 over Kentucky, 71-54 over Mississippi State. The defensive end gave it that qualifier. Today, Auburn launched 34 threes and, to their absolute credit, made 13 of them (38.2%). The Vols probably got a little caught up in it, firing 28 of their own. Before we’re too quick to judge that, however, keep in mind that 28 was the second-highest total of the season…behind 29 against Gonzaga. It can work both ways.

It works better for Tennessee playing inside-out; Auburn didn’t have the interior presence of Gonzaga, so it was certainly less wise today. But Tennessee works best overall when it defends at a higher level than we saw today. Part of it was Admiral Schofield’s foul trouble, limiting him to only 25 minutes. But that’s also simply part of who Tennessee is: the Vols play a short rotation, and can be vulnerable when the whistle doesn’t go their way.

So yes, the whistle got weird at LSU and Auburn. That’s half of Tennessee’s losses and two-thirds in SEC play; unless Vanderbilt gets the Holy Spirit tonight, the Vols (and possibly Kentucky) will become the first team to go 15-3 in SEC play and fail to win the title. Some of it is bad luck. Some of it is poor officiating. Some of it is Tennessee needing to be even better.

Much like the loss at Rupp, Tennessee can use this as a learning experience. On the whole, a 27-4 (15-3) season with overtime losses to Kansas and LSU, a four-point loss at Auburn, and falling at Rupp Arena? That’s an excellent year, worthy of the one seed conversation. When it started at 23-1 (11-0) and finished 4-3 – due more than anything to the increased degree of difficulty in the schedule – it feels a little more disappointing.

But the last word of this season is a long way from being written.

If the Vols are out of the No. 1 seed conversation, their biggest loss today is potentially having to face the very best teams (Virginia and full-strength Duke) in the Elite Eight instead of the Final Four. I don’t think the Vols are totally eliminated from the No. 1 seed conversation – what Kentucky and North Carolina do today and next week will matter – but they had to be considered the favorite going into today.

But the biggest picture finds a Tennessee team that just put its best basketball on the floor in Knoxville, then took itself out of it at Auburn before hot three-point shooting and a bad call finished them off. The Vols no longer control their own destiny for the SEC title and a No. 1 seed. But they absolutely control their own destiny for their best basketball showing up in the NCAA Tournament.

Keep getting better.

Since the SEC expanded in 2012-13 and went to an 18-game schedule, here are your champions:

• 2013: Florida wins at 14-4, three others at 12-6
• 2014: Florida goes undefeated at 18-0, two others 12-6
• 2015: Kentucky goes undefeated at 18-0, Arkansas 13-5
• 2016: Texas A&M and Kentucky split at 13-5
• 2017: Kentucky wins at 16-2, Florida 14-4
• 2018: Tennessee and Auburn split at 13-5

We’ve never seen three teams win at least 14 games, which is where things sit right now. If Kentucky beats Florida on Saturday, that’s three teams with at least 15 wins. And if the Vols win at Auburn and LSU beats 0-17 Vanderbilt (which we’ve also never seen on the other end of the spectrum), the league title will be shared at 16-2.

There are plenty of questions about Will Wade at the moment, including whether the LSU administration wants the image of him on a ladder cutting down nets if/when the Tigers beat Vanderbilt Saturday night. As the Vols can only control the Vols, we’ll focus on Auburn and a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But it’s worth pointing out how amazing a 16-2 run through the SEC would be, even if it ends with an unprecedented tie for the title.

What’s the Simplest Path to a No. 1 Seed?

In Thursday’s Bracket Matrix, Virginia and Duke are unanimous No. 1 seeds in the 90 brackets in the pool; Gonzaga is just behind with an average seed of 1.07. And Tennessee is currently the fourth No. 1 seed with an average seed of 1.38, a good bit ahead of Kentucky (1.81) and North Carolina (1.83).

If Tennessee wins at Auburn and Duke wins at Chapel Hill, that could do it. There are various thoughts on if you want Duke or Carolina to prevail, but if we’re looking for simplicity, that includes giving up on the notion that Tennessee could be seeded higher than both Duke and UNC and back atop the Louisville region. A North Carolina win on Saturday could introduce that possibility, giving both Duke and Carolina five losses to Tennessee’s three. But given Tennessee’s history with the selection committee and the names on the front of the jersey, I’m not sure I like those odds. Could the selection committee put three ACC teams on the top line? Probably not, but when a program with zero Final Fours under its belt is the alternative, it makes me nervous.

In the last three years, the average No. 1 seed has 4.67 losses on Selection Sunday. So a Tennessee team at 28-3 (16-2), if it goes through Auburn, should feel pretty good about its chances heading to the SEC Tournament. But we also have a bit of institutional memory here: in 2008 the Vols went to the SEC Tournament at 28-3 (14-2), lost by a point in the semifinals post-tornado, and were given a No. 2 seed despite being No. 1 in RPI. It’s one of the better what-if’s in recent Tennessee history: that team’s path to the Final Four went through a criminally under-seeded Butler team in the second round, then ran into a match-up nightmare in the Sweet 16 against No. 3 Louisville. Had the Vols earned the final No. 1 seed instead of Kansas (who, to their credit, ultimately won it all), we could have seen Chris Lofton vs Steph Curry in the Elite Eight.

But we’ve seen a 28-3 Tennessee team that spent time at No. 1 in the regular season get denied on Selection Sunday. In this decade, six major conference teams failed to earn a No. 1 seed despite having less than five losses:

• 2012 Missouri (30-4) – lost to No. 15 Norfolk State in Round One
• 2014 Villanova (28-4) – lost to No. 7 UConn in Round Two
• 2015 Virginia (29-3) – lost to No. 7 Michigan State in Round Two
• 2015 Arizona (31-3) – lost to No. 1 Wisconsin in Elite Eight
• 2017 UCLA (29-4) – lost to No. 2 Kentucky in Sweet 16
• 2017 Arizona (30-4) lost to No. 11 Xavier in Sweet 16

So the committee could say, “See, we got it right, none of those teams made the Final Four (and only one made the Elite Eight).” This is a disgruntled list you don’t want to be on, though the last three times it happened to teams from a diminished Pac-12. If the Vols do fall to No. 2 even after a win at Auburn, feeling sorry for yourself is a recipe for disaster.

But the Vols have the Bracket Matrix, NET, and Torvik’s predictive bracketology all on their side at the moment. Nothing is certain, but you can make a really good argument for the Vols as the favorite to earn that final No. 1 seed.

But all of those roads go through Auburn.

On The Plains

Auburn rallied from down 11 at halftime to win at Alabama on Tuesday. I would imagine sharing the floor with their in-state brethren offered some support, but tomorrow will be the first game back at Auburn since tornadoes took 23 lives in the area. It’s also senior day for Bryce Brown; there will be emotions of all kinds in the building.

The Tigers are 21-9 (10-7), but other than a three-point loss at South Carolina, every defeat is to a Top 50 team in KenPom. Their only losses at home are to Kentucky (82-80) and Ole Miss (60-55). The Rebels took the invitation to launch threes and went 13-of-33 (39.4%) while Auburn hit just 5-of-20 (25%).

Austin Wiley missed the last three games with a leg injury; Pearl referred to him as “doubtful, but not out” yesterday. Without him this is a much smaller team. But Chuma Okeke can still bang, and this team beat the Vols in Knoxville last year solely on the strength of offensive rebounds in a stat line that’s still hard to believe: 22 offensive rebounds, 24 defensive rebounds.

Teams that have wanted to play fast with Tennessee have often regretted it (Louisville, Memphis, Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina, etc.). The Tigers have the best-of-Pearl quality of controlled chaos: third in the league in turnovers allowed, third in creating turnovers. Statistically they aren’t crashing the offensive glass as hard this year, but the memories of last season will linger until the Vols prove otherwise.

But it’s the willingness to shoot and let shoot that’s most striking about this team: in SEC play, almost half of Auburn’s field goal attempts are from three (49.2%). And 43.6% of opponent attempts are from three.

One thing about this: it’s been less about Auburn’s makes than the opponent’s when it comes to wins and losses. When the opposition shoots less than 33.3% from the arc, Auburn is 11-1, its only loss to Duke. When teams hit at least 33.3% from three, Auburn is 10-8.

So, do you take the bait? Only seven teams have taken less than 20 threes against the Tigers this year. The Vols have taken less than 20 threes 15 times this year. Tennessee is 333rd nationally in the percentage of points they get from the arc. It could be a poise game in an emotionally charged environment.

Much is on the line. The Vols and Tigers will go first (Noon, ESPN), with Duke and Carolina at 6:00 PM and LSU hosting Vanderbilt at 8:30 PM. Tennessee has never won back-to-back SEC Championships. I think this team has plenty of history left.

Go Vols.

We’ve said it plenty of times this year: with the exception of seven seed UConn in 2014, every national champion of the KenPom era has had a Top 20 offense and defense (original story from the SB Nation Villanova blog last February). In the last week of the regular season, seven teams hit that criteria: Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina, Michigan, and Kentucky.

The Vols don’t have a Top 20 defense, haven’t for most of the season, and plunged into the 50’s after the loss at Kentucky.

After last night’s 71-54 win over Mississippi State? The defense still isn’t Top 20.

But it is 21st.

It started with a strong defensive performance against Vanderbilt; the offense didn’t sing in a 58-46 win, but the Commodores shot 32.1% from the floor. Still, that was Vandy, winless in SEC play. Then the Vols lost at LSU in overtime; the Tigers were without Tremont Waters, which makes it hard to judge, and though they only shot 38.5% from the floor, they got to the free throw line 700 31 times. Then Ole Miss buried a ton of tough threes, hitting 9-of-23 (39.1%) from the arc in another close game.

The defense was better, but it was tough to tell. But the last two games, against two of the best teams Tennessee has played all year? Kentucky shot 31.8%, their lowest total of the year. Second-lowest: 39.1% against Kansas. Mississippi State shot 33.3%, their second-lowest total of the year (31.1% at Rupp).

Via Sports-Reference, In the first 25 games of the season, the Vols allowed 39.7% from the floor and 33.4% from the arc. In the last five games – four against offenses rating in the Top 35 in KenPom – the Vols have allowed 35.7% from the floor and 31.1% from the arc.

And here’s what’s pushing Tennessee over the top. You know how all year we’ve been saying the Vols traded creating turnovers in 2018 for blocked shots in 2019 (still a thing they’re great at, ninth nationally in shot-blocking percentage and third in shot-blocking percentage allowed)? In the last two games, Kentucky turned it over 16 times with eight Tennessee steals, then Mississippi State gave it away 17 times with a dozen (!) Tennessee steals, a season high.

If there was a switch, apparently Rupp Arena flipped it, and the rematch taped it to the on position. Kentucky was playing without Reid Travis, to be fair, so I know we can’t hang everything on beating a team by 19 that beat us by 17. But Mississippi State is a five seed in the Bracket Matrix…and the Vols obliterated them.

Nevermind any concern about the Vols peaking too soon. This is their best basketball, right on time.

Let’s return to a question we posed before the Kentucky game: would you rather be the one seed in Kansas City, or the two seed in Louisville?

I’m not worried about the difference between playing a 15 or 16 seed, or even the potential quality of opponent in the Sweet 16. If Tennessee is trying to make its first Final Four and win the national championship, you want the easiest path to get there. And while we’ll break down the bracket as soon as it’s released like everyone else, in the advanced stats world, three teams have separated themselves at the top: Virginia, and the full-strength versions of Gonzaga and Duke.

They’re 1-2-3 everywhere you look, with the exception of the AP and Coaches Polls. North Carolina is third in both of those, set for a rematch with probably-full-strength #4 Duke on Saturday. The head-to-head police applaud the Tar Heels being ranked above the Blue Devils for now. We’ll see if that holds.

But everywhere else – Bracket Matrix, KenPom, NET, and Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology – Virginia, Gonzaga, and Duke are 1-2-3 in some order.

In KenPom, those three teams are somewhere between a 6-8 point favorite against Tennessee on a neutral floor. The Vols are currently seventh in KenPom, but within one possession of the other three teams in front of them (and the next four behind them). When we get closer to Selection Sunday, we can argue for Tennessee’s resume – which is outstanding, by the way, and with the win over Kentucky now includes another elite victory to go with the two overtime losses and Rupp Arena bullet point. Tennessee deserves to be ranked higher than they are right now, and I can make a plenty good argument that they deserve that fourth one seed.

But if we’re talking about ratings instead of rankings? Virginia and full-strength Gonzaga and Duke have separated themselves from the field. Those are the only three teams that would be more than a push against Tennessee. If we’re trying to survive and advance? I’d like to see those three teams in the Final Four, and not before. And the best way to do that is to grab that last one seed.

I think Tennessee’s odds of getting to Minneapolis are higher as the one seed in Kansas City than the two seed with a short drive to Louisville, if that drive ends with facing Virginia or Duke in the Elite Eight. Let’s be clear: we’re trying to win the national championship, which could very well mean going through those teams eventually. But when we’re also trying to make the Final Four for the first time ever? Let’s save it for Minneapolis.

The good news for Tennessee: I think they control their own destiny for that last one seed.

A Rick Barnes vs Ben Howland Showdown of Old

Fun fact: Barnes beat the Russell Westbrook/Kevin Love UCLA team at Texas.

It took Howland an extra year to get here, but Mississippi State is a six seed and climbing in the latest Bracket Matrix. The Bulldogs started 12-1 with an impressive set of non-conference wins (St. Mary’s, Clemson, Cincinnati, and the last team to beat Wofford on December 19). Then they opened conference play with an overtime loss to South Carolina and a four point loss to an Ole Miss team we still weren’t sure of. Since then they’ve gone 9-5, including two losses to Kentucky and an overtime loss to LSU. They ripped off five straight wins over lower-tier SEC foes before falling at Auburn 80-75 on Saturday. Their most impressive road win is at Ole Miss (who returned the favor in Starkville), but they lost at South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, and Auburn.

Tennessee blew out this team in late February last season on the road behind 24 points from Admiral Schofield, then got a much tougher challenge in the SEC Tournament before prevailing 62-59.

This is another good offensive team, led by Quindary Weatherspoon and fueled by what Lamar Peters gives them from the point. 6’10” Aric Holman is back and joined by 6’10” freshman Reggie Perry, who has been great on the offensive glass. The Bulldogs as a team are 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage and 36th in effective field goal percentage, shooting it well inside and outside the arc.

They also lead the league in blocks and steals, but have been victimized by the three ball (36.6% allowed, 12th worst in the league). When they create chaos, they win: 15-2 when they force at least 13 turnovers (with losses to LSU and Kentucky), 6-6 when they don’t.

The Vols will need to be clean, and they’ll need to be good defensively again. This will be the fourth Top 20 offense the Vols have faced this season, and Auburn will make five on Saturday. For Tennessee to earn that last one seed, the defense we saw against Kentucky must become the rule.

Just like they drew it up for a critical final week battle: 9:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Go Vols.