Author Archives: Will Shelton

This Tennessee team talks a lot about the 2017 off-season as the launching point for their success. It first showed up on the floor against Purdue.

November 22, 2017 really isn’t that long ago. But for Tennessee’s program, that day was about getting a neutral-site win over a ranked foe to significantly boost its RPI and its early-season tournament hopes. This time, beating Purdue leads to the Elite Eight, on the other side of a No. 2 vs No. 3 showdown.

Historic as it became, our memories of the last game with Purdue run thin because the Vols tried to hire Greg Schiano four days later. That’s a shame, because it ranks as Tennessee’s most exciting win of the decade via KenPom, besting this year’s win at Vanderbilt, the four-overtime win at Texas A&M in 2013, and our one and only Sweet 16 victory over Ohio State in 2010. That’s thanks to in-game fluctuations like these:

• Purdue up 27-16 with five minutes left in the first half
• And-one and two threes from Lamonte Turner over the next two minutes
• Game tied at halftime
• Vols up seven with 14 minutes to play
• Purdue back in front with 11 minutes to play
• Vols up six with six minutes to play
• Purdue back in front with three minutes to play
• Purdue up 63-60 with 18 seconds left; Lamonte Turner three forces OT
• Grant Williams bucket, then 7-0 Purdue run, then a Kyle Alexander (!) three
• Williams-to-Alexander slam, Vols up one with 45 seconds left
• Purdue scores to retake the lead
• Grant Williams backs down from the elbow, go-ahead score with 14 seconds left
• Purdue miss, Admiral Schofield makes a diving save on the rebound to James Daniel with two seconds to go. Free throws, victory.

Purdue went on to the NCAA Tournament as a No. 2 seed, made it to the Sweet 16, and lost to Texas Tech by 13. The year before Purdue made the Sweet 16 as a No. 4 seed, but lost to Kansas by 32. Carsen Edwards has been around for all three trips. This round has been an issue. We saw what an adventure it was for the Vols to put their second round demons to rest. What will it take to keep Purdue’s alive?

The Two Big Differences

Purdue has nine losses to Tennessee’s five, but since a 6-5 start (including losses to Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Michigan) the Boilermakers are 19-4. In KenPom the Vols are third in offense and 33rd in defense; Purdue is fifth and 27th. The shooting numbers are real, spectacular, and almost identical. And if you think the Vols run a lot of their offense through Grant Williams, Carsen Edwards is involved in 34.6% of Purdue’s possessions, tenth nationally. There’s a lot to love about both teams.

But two things stand out in this match-up: Purdue’s offensive rebounding, and Tennessee’s shot blocking.

The Boilermakers get it back on 34.9% of their attempts. Most of those attempts come from Edwards, freeing up everyone else to go to the glass. And everyone else is freaking huge: the rest of the starters all go 6’6″ until you get to the end, where you’ll find 7’3″ Matt Haarms (the Vols saddled him with foul trouble last year). Then off the bench it’s 6’9″ freshman Trevion Williams, 6’9″ freshman Aaron Wheeler, and 6’8″ Evan Boudreaux.

Also, a note about starter Grady Eifert. He doesn’t get a lot of touches with Edwards and all that size. But when he touches it, it goes in: Eifert is ranked first nationally in KenPom’s offensive rating, 31-of-44 (70.5%) from two and 34-of-77 (44.2%) from three. He might be the player you’re most likely to lose in this offense. Don’t do that.

Generally, it’s going to Edwards, it’s going up, and Purdue is crashing if it doesn’t go in. So there should be opportunities in transition…but the Vols have to get the rebound first.

There’s some good news: the Boilermakers had 18 offensive rebounds against Michigan State, but lost (they had 13 in the rematch and won). They had 16 in a loss to Minnesota. It’s not a hard and fast rule. But it’s one the Vols have been relatively victimized by before: nine for Kansas, 10 for Auburn in Nashville, 11 for Kentucky, 12 for LSU. Purdue lives on the offensive glass. The Vols don’t always die there, but they’ve been vulnerable.

But Purdue is vulnerable at the rim as well: 11.3% of the Boilermakers’ shots get rejected. This is, in part, what can happen when a 6’1″ player takes 37.4% of your shots, the sixth-highest percentage in the nation. By comparison, Admiral Schofield takes 29.1% of Tennessee’s shots to lead the Vols. Beyond Edwards, this also highlights the one-on-one battles in the paint: Tennessee has to hold their own on the defensive glass, and must be aggressive in shot-blocking without falling into foul trouble. The Vols are 11th nationally in shot-blocking percentage. Without question, this is a massive game for Kyle Alexander.

The fouls bring up a consistent question down the stretch for the Vols: what will they get from Yves Pons and Derrick Walker? They’ve both played short shifts in the last few games, typically averaging about four total minutes. What happens in those four minutes? Neither is out there to score. But Pons had a turnover against Colgate and Iowa, Walker a turnover and two fouls in three minutes against the Hawkeyes. The Vols need their eighth and ninth players to do no harm.

This game is a coin flip any which way you want it. It has the potential to be as exciting as the one we saw last year. So much has changed since then. So much still can for the victor.

Last year Tennessee was on the wrong side of a good story and a bad bounce, sending Loyola-Chicago to the Sweet 16 and the Vols to think about next year. For the first 20 minutes today, the Vols were the good story: total annihilation of Iowa, a can-you-top-this response to Purdue’s triumph over Villanova.

That match-up is still on, but it had to wait a lot longer than we would’ve liked.

Again, there are no bad wins in this tournament. So just the same as we didn’t have to belabor how Colgate rallied to take a two-point lead midway through the second half in round one, we don’t have to burden ourselves with the excruciating details of Iowa’s second half rally today. The high points, anyway, are Lamonte Turner splashing a three after getting the wrong end of a terrible call, putting Tennessee back up three after Iowa tied the game on the ensuing free throws.

Let’s back up, though, to talk about one detail. Grant Williams hit a shot with 10:02 to play that put the Vols up 13. Iowa was game, but the Vols still had plenty of cushion. In the last ten minutes, the Vols made two shots: Lamonte Turner’s twisting layup to put the Vols up five with seven minutes to go, and the aforementioned clutch three with two minutes to play.

And then in overtime – with Admiral Schofield apparently benching himself – the Vols scored on their first four possessions. None bigger than this one:

https://twitter.com/marchmadness/status/1109884731288514560

49 points in the first half. 22 points in the second half. 12 points in overtime. And the Vols advance.

Here’s a picture to keep in mind:

PRETTY SWEET. pic.twitter.com/QHO7LxKbn8

— Tennessee Basketball (@Vol_Hoops) March 24, 2019

Fans like us sit between the people in this photo. Today makes six trips to the Sweet 16 since 2000 for Tennessee, and five in the last 13 years. It’s happened enough to make it a reasonable expectation for a Tennessee team as good as this one. And this one just won its 31st game, tying 2008 for the school record, and remains atop the program leaderboard in KenPom. There are still plenty of reasons to believe this team can be the best in school history; it’s really just one more win away from ending that argument.

In the center is Rick Barnes, who’s now made seven Sweet 16’s: one at Clemson, five at Texas, and today. Barnes also won the next game three times at Texas, and made the Final Four in 2003. He hasn’t necessarily been to this point much more than us, but he’s been beyond it far more often. I don’t know how he feels about having water dumped all over him today only because he knows how he feels about having water dumped all over him when you’re going to the Final Four.

But I can tell how the guys holding the water feel about it.

We’ll nitpick and break down and figure out how to beat Purdue. But for now – at least for today – this picture helps me remember the guys on this team weren’t just heartbroken a season ago, they were 16-16 two years ago and 15-19 the year before that.

We’ve been here, Rick’s been here and more. But for this group – best in school history or not – this is history. It was almost the wrong kind of history with the biggest blown lead in the tournament. But, just as the Vols found out last year in this thing, almost doesn’t count. So instead, this team joyously plays on.

The next part looks different than last year too.

Part of 2018’s heartbreak was how the bracket came apart: had the Vols survived Loyola, they would’ve joined No. 5 Kentucky, No. 9 Kansas State, and No. 7 Nevada in Atlanta for a trip to the Final Four. This time, No. 3 Purdue is the next man up, with No. 1 Virginia and No. 9 Oklahoma set to meet tonight to determine who gets to face No. 13 UC Irvine (EDIT: or No. 12 Oregon, who apparently I’m discounting because we all still want to believe in Cinderella). So sure, the Sooners could win tonight and make an easier on-paper path in the Elite Eight. But Purdue, as demonstrated against Villanova last night, is a monster: the Vols are favored by a point in the opening line, the Boliermakers by a point in KenPom.

We’ll get to that, in great and joyous detail. And looking ahead, it’s not just that:

Every 1, 2 and 3 seed is still alive. The only time every 1, 2 and 3 seed reached the Sweet 16 was 2009. While there are a bunch of big favorites today that look like they should win, history suggests one of them, or one of the 3 seeds will go down today.

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) March 24, 2019

No. 1 North Carolina is up eight on Washington at halftime as I type. Duke, Virginia, Texas Tech, and Houston are all left on today’s slate among top three seeds. But man oh man, the potential in this Sweet 16. Maybe you didn’t like the first weekend because it lacked chaos (in the destination, because it was certainly present in the journey). But if you like great college basketball, look at what’s already out there next weekend:

• No. 2 Tennessee vs No. 3 Purdue
• No. 2 Michigan State vs No. 3 LSU
• No. 1 North Carolina (+8 at half) vs No. 5 Auburn
• No. 1 Gonzaga vs No. 4 Florida State
• No. 2 Michigan vs No. 3 Texas Tech or No. 6 Buffalo

And then, we could add a Duke/Virginia Tech rematch, another 2/3 battle with Kentucky and Houston, and No. 1 Virginia still alive too. This has the potential to be an all-time Sweet 16.

This can still be an all-time Tennessee team too. They’re going to have to be better against Purdue. But for now, for today…let’s celebrate. This team, two seasons removed from being 13th in the SEC media poll and 53 weeks removed from second round heartbreak, is going to the Sweet 16.

Keep getting better.

Go Vols.

When last we met, ’twas overtime in Dayton, and we started asking ourselves, “Can Josh Richardson – Josh Richardson – be the alpha for this team?” Five years and two coaches later, Josh Richardson is the leading scorer for the Miami Heat, and Tennessee is aiming to be the the alpha in college basketball.

The Vols looked like it – as much as a No. 2 is supposed to against a No. 15 – for significant stretches of the first half against Colgate. In the second half, Jordan Burns decided he wanted a piece of that action for himself, and took it until Admiral Schofield wrestled it away in the final minutes.

Winning is the only thing that matters now, so no need to belabor yesterday’s performance specifically. A tip of the cap to Jordan Burns. But how does yesterday’s performance play into what this Tennessee team will do with this tournament, with a not-dissimilar opponent from Iowa City headed our way next?

The Three & Tennessee

The Vols were 9-of-26 (34.6%) from the arc against Colgate; too many, some will say. And it’s true, the Vols are 22-1 when they take less than 22 threes, 8-4 when they take 22+. But for every bad – 8-of-22 at LSU, 7-of-25 at Kentucky, 7-of-27 vs Kansas, 9-of-28 at Auburn? There’s also this: 10-of-21 vs Kentucky in Nashville, 8-of-22 vs Kentucky in Knoxville, 6-of-23 vs Mississippi State in Knoxville, 9-of-23 at Florida, and 12-of-29 vs Gonzaga.

And Tennessee’s second-highest percentage from the arc on the year is…Auburn in the SEC Tournament, where if you said the Vols would hit 8-of-15 (53.3%) coming in, we’d have praised their patience and assumed we cut down the nets.

The three isn’t Tennessee’s outright strength. But it’s not always Tennessee’s outright enemy. All those great memories we’ve made this year? At the end of games, they look like this:

• Grant Williams makes a play, or
• Somebody hits a three

And often the one leads to the other, which is really where Tennessee’s best basketball lives: a touch for Grant, then a good shot or good ball movement. At times Colgate crashed four guys on Williams; he has to pass, and those guys have to take that open shot. Admiral Schofield hits 41.6% on the year, Jordan Bowden 36.1%. Those guys need to shoot that shot.

Just maybe not against Iowa.

The Three & Iowa

The Hawkeyes allow just 32.3% from the arc, 59th nationally.

The Hawkeyes allow 53.6% inside the arc, 306th nationally.

They’re not just some group getting hammered inside: Iowa is 63rd in opponent free throw rate. But when you put their two-point defensive numbers together with the assist rate they allow (58.3%, 316th nationally), this is a team you slice up with good ball movement.

Tennessee’s assist numbers have gone down as the competition has gone up in the last month. The Vols have nine games on the year with less than 15 assists; seven of them have come in the last 11 games overall, including only 13 assists vs Colgate. That’s a good number to think about for Iowa: when opponents have more than 15 assists, Iowa is 7-9. When it’s 18+, Iowa is 2-7. And when opponents have 15 or fewer assists, Iowa is 16-2.

There’s a pacing issue here as well. In the Big Ten, Iowa is second overall in tempo and first in shortest offensive possession length. But they’ll only be the seventh-fastest team Tennessee has faced this year.

The Vols should be able to get the shots they want against this defense. Will the same be true on the other end of the floor?

The Defense Must Improve to Reach a Championship Level

There are no guarantees. In the first round, some elite offenses met their match: farewell to Iowa State (#10 offense KenPom), 6-of-22 from the arc against Ohio State; our friends from Starkville (#15 offense) watched Liberty shoot 12-of-25 (48%) from the arc. And on the other end of the spectrum, Top 10 defenses from Wisconsin (#3), Kansas State (#6), and VCU (#7) all went out in the first round.

The Hawkeyes are 14th in offensive efficiency, putting them right next to Mississippi State; Villanova, who could be next, is 16th. Tennessee has seen better from Gonzaga, Auburn, Kentucky, and LSU, but the Hawkeyes are still potent.

The biggest talking point in this match-up should still be what Tennessee’s offense can do inside the arc against Iowa’s defense. But if the Hawkeyes get hot from the arc, like Colgate, the narrative can change in a hurry. Iowa shoots 36.5% from the arc, 66th nationally. Their real strength has been getting to the free throw line: 16th nationally in free throw rate, led by 6’9″ Tyler Cook. If you watched them play Cincinnati, you know size is definitely a factor: Cook and 6’11” Luka Garza will go hard to the offensive glass, and much of Iowa’s offense runs through them. And the rest of these guys will put it up from three, again, much like Colgate:

• Jordan Bohannon 76-of-199, 38.2%
• Joe Wieskamp 58-of-134, 43.3%
• Nicholas Baer 45-of-116, 38.8%
• Isaiah Moss 45-of-109, 41.3%

It may surprise you to know Tennessee has won each of its ten worst performances defending against the three. Colgate’s 51.7% was second on the year, behind South Carolina hitting 14-of-23 (60.9%) in Knoxville. Some of Tennessee’s best wins are on that list, including Kentucky in Nashville, Louisville, at Ole Miss, and Gonzaga. The Vols have been good enough to not just survive against hot-shooting teams, but beat some of the best teams on their schedule and in the nation.

But in March, it only takes one of these going wrong to end you. Colgate flirted with it yesterday, Iowa may again tomorrow. And Tennessee, a seven-to-nine point favorite depending on who you ask, may again just overcome it on the offensive end, or make the plays, again, down the stretch.

Tennessee’s offense is that good. If the Vols are looking to cut down nets, they’ll have to be better on the defensive end. Iowa would be a good place to start.

The Vols and Hawkeyes go right away on Sunday: 12:10 PM ET, CBS. Louisville awaits.

Go Vols.

Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament history goes something like this: after the field was expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the Vols didn’t make the Sweet 16 until 2000. With the turn of the century came better basketball: Tennessee played its way to the second weekend in 2000, 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2014. The Vols can make it six times in the last 20 years with wins on Friday and Sunday; that math sends every senior to the Sweet 16 at least once on average. Three other times since 1985, the Vols lost in the second round despite receiving a seed projected to make it to the second weekend: 1999 (No. 4), 2006 (No. 2), and last season (No. 3).

Of course, only the 2010 squad made it through to the Elite Eight, and almost made it to the Final Four. Making it to a regional final thus becomes a clear indicator of an all-time season at Tennessee, no matter what preceded it. In this year’s case, better basketball but no hardware came before a chance to play through the geographically-friendly confines of the South region as its No. 2 seed.

In Knoxville, winning two games puts you on a great list. Winning three puts you atop it. And we’ll hang your own banner for winning four; two of them if you win six.

It all starts today, though thankfully Tennessee starts tomorrow, which gives us 16 games before we become emotionally compromised, no matter what happens to your bracket. Tennessee’s past history and present seed point to the Elite Eight as a reasonable goal; the team atop the region being number one in KenPom by a healthy margin also presents one scenario where you just get beat by a better team at region’s end.

Anything can happen between now and then. And make no mistake: this Tennessee team is definitely good enough to envision another scenario where it wins the whole Fulmerized thing.

For now, let’s take a look at Tennessee’s path to the Elite Eight in comparison to its predecessors who were seeded high enough to get there. Last year stands out because of the chaos that happened in Tennessee’s region: KenPom No. 1 Virginia down to a No. 16 seed in round one, KenPom No. 4 Cincinnati down to Nevada in round two. The Vols at No. 3 fell to Sister Jean in round two. But that path wasn’t looking easy at all when the tournament began. It’s always going to be harder to make the case for an Elite Eight from a No. 3 seed. Let’s look instead at Tennessee’s other two No. 2 seeds.

Round One

• 2006 Greensboro: Winthrop (KenPom 80)
• 2008 Birmingham: American (KenPom 149)
• 2019 Columbus: Colgate (KenPom 127)

All geographically friendly, but not all opponents created equal. Bruce Pearl’s first team was 19-3 (10-1), lost at Alabama, then won at Florida to secure the SEC East and get to 20-4 (11-2). From there, yuck: back-to-back home losses to Arkansas and Kentucky, a road win at Vanderbilt, then one-and-done in the SEC Tournament to South Carolina. The committee still awarded a No. 2 seed, but Winthrop almost pulled the upset. But…

The 2008 Vols handled American 72-57 behind four threes from JaJuan Smith. This year, Colgate checks in at 127th in KenPom, the highest of the No. 15 seeds (Montana 137, Abilene Christian 146, Bradley 161) but nothing as scary as Winthrop on paper. KenPom likes the Vols by 15 points.

Round Two

• 2006: No. 7 Wichita State (KenPom 36 pre-tournament)
• 2008: No. 7 Butler (KenPom 26 pre-tournament)
• 2019: No. 7 Cincinnati (KenPom 32) or No. 10 Iowa (KenPom 36)

Before Wichita was Wichita, they were a No. 7 seed that hadn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 1981. They won two by beating the Vols in the second round in 2006, turning back a five-point Tennessee lead with under six minutes to play. Mark Turgeon left for the Texas A&M job the following year, leading to Gregg Marshall’s arrival. On that day in Greensboro, the Shockers hit 50% from the floor and 9-of-16 60% from the arc; that’ll get you beat.

The real seeding travesty was 2008. Butler was 29-3 on Selection Sunday and ranked 11th in the AP poll, but was given a No. 7 seed opposite the Vols. This was Brad Stevens’ first year as head coach, and they almost pulled it off: Tennessee won 76-71 in overtime, closing the game on a 10-3 run.

This year Cincinnati presents a challenge in geography. But if you remove that from the equation and I asked who you wanted to play in the second round among No. 7 seeds Louisville (17th KenPom), Wofford (21st), Nevada (25th), and Cincinnati (32nd)? You’d probably agree with Mr. Pomeroy. Iowa is the second-highest No. 10 seed in KenPom, but behind the Gators, who couldn’t be matched up with Tennessee in the second round.

The geography is good for Tennessee in general, bad for Cincinnati specifically, but the potential second round opponents are about what you’d expect from a 7/10 match-up. And the Vols avoided getting into it with an under-seeded mid-major for the second year in a row.

Potential Sweet 16 Opponents

• 2006 Washington DC: No. 3 North Carolina (KenPom 8), No. 11 George Mason (KenPom 25)
• 2008 Charlotte: No. 3 Louisville (KenPom 11)
• 2019 Louisville: No. 3 Purdue (KenPom 10)

Speaking of under-seeded mid-majors, George Mason would’ve been the foe had the Vols closed against Wichita in 2006. They ultimately went through No. 1 seed UConn to get to the Final Four.

Tennessee’s seeding in 2008 is, again, well-discussed at this point. The Cardinals were a bad match-up, though in KenPom all the No. 3 seeds were bunched together that year. There was no easy road through Charlotte anyway: No. 1 North Carolina was waiting in the Elite Eight. 2008 remains the only year all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four.

This year, in KenPom, Purdue and Texas Tech are 9th and 10th, the class of the No. 3 seeds. Houston, a big winner in NET, is 15th; LSU is 18th, but probably not an option for the Vols with both coming from the SEC.

Further down the list, Villanova is 26th in KenPom, but they get no prize right away: St. Mary’s is 30th, easily the highest-rated No. 11 seed (Ohio State is second at 44th).

A date with Purdue in Louisville would be lots of fun; the Boilermakers are a shade closer to the arena than the Volunteers. And, again, I think it’s what you have to expect in a 2/3 Sweet 16 match-up, if we get it: both teams are really good. You can nitpick a couple of things as always, but I think this bracket is reasonable. We can worry about Virginia if/when we both get there, but Tennessee’s road to the program’s second ever Elite Eight is one this team is capable of handling.

Enjoy the ride.

The Raiders come to us from the Patriot League, where they started 13-10 (5-5). And then, bang: eight straight wins to finish the season, then a clean run through the conference tournament. Including all three Patriot League tournament games, Colgate won seven of its last eight by double digits.

Before all that they lost at Syracuse by 21, at Penn State by 11, and at Pittsburgh by 14. KenPom has them at 129th overall; our closest comparison there is Georgia, but I wouldn’t think of Colgate in terms of a team we beat by 46.

Colgate knows how to score. Five games with 30+ three-point attempts, 39.1% on the year (13th nationally). And they share it:

• 6’0″ Jordan Burns: 70-of-183 (38.3%)
• 6’8″ Will Rayman: 64-of-143 (44.8%)
• 6’10” Rapolas Ivanauskas: 42-of-97 (43.3%) (!)
• 6’3″ Jack Ferguson: 53-of-128 (41.4%)

They’re efficient inside the arc too: 53.9%, 46th nationally. Burns is a great facilitator, 28th nationally in assist rate, and just scored 35 in the Patriot League final. And they get good work inside the arc from 6’9″ Dana Batt and 6’8″ Malcolm Regisford. This team has good size and uses it well at all points on the offensive end.

Colgate doesn’t give or take at the free throw line. This will be interesting when dealing with Grant Williams. The Raiders are 284th in free throw rate, and 65th on the defensive end of that equation: they don’t foul, and they don’t get fouled. That suggests far more jump shots, especially when you have 6’8″ and 6’10” guys taking that many threes. Only 16% of Colgate’s points come via the stripe, and only 17% of their opponent’s points.

Playing Tennessee could change all this, of course. When playing above their level in non-conference, the Raiders were -20 in free throw attempts vs Syracuse, -14 vs South Florida, -11 vs Penn State, and -9 vs Pitt. That’s a comforting stat, if Tennessee is disciplined enough to take advantage of it and not get into another three-point shooting contest.

Turnovers have been an issue. The Raiders give it away on 19.3% of possessions, 232nd nationally, and allow a steal on 10.5% of possessions, 327th nationally.

Colgate should have a hard time stopping Tennessee’s offense, no doubt. But the best way for Tennessee to win is consistent with the best basketball they’ll need to advance: lock it down defensively. Do not allow a team that’s won 11 in a row and loves the three to get hot. Do not allow a team that’s won 11 in a row and loves the three to get hot. Do not allow a team that’s won 11 in a row and loves the three to get hot. Do not.

The Vols haven’t been far enough up the bracket to be in this situation often, but did a nice job of it last year with Wright State: teams seeded 14-16 have some happy-to-be-here in their DNA. The sooner you bring it out, the better.

I didn’t see most of the game today; maybe that was a blessing. I know we’ve spent a great deal of time over the last few weeks talking about brackets and No. 1 seeds; the only path Tennessee has left there is to hope the line about the selection committee not having time to care about Sunday games is fact and not fiction. But wherever the Vols end up now – No. 1 or No. 2, Louisville or Anaheim – they have nothing to do except look in the mirror.

And on that mirror, I’d write “Auburn”.

The Vols need to see themselves: a team that beat Gonzaga and Kentucky twice, spent four weeks at number one, can beat anybody and didn’t lose a single game outside Quad 1. They need to see the team that beat Kentucky on Saturday.

And they need to see Auburn, to be reminded that no one will give it to you.

Auburn is a good basketball team; on the right day, they’re a great team, and the numbers say they were plenty great today. Bruce Pearl is a great coach, we know. No one can take any of that from them.

But in both of Tennessee’s meetings with Auburn, we’re left looking back in that mirror. On the road, the Vols took the invitation to jack threes and came up four points short after a back-to-back stretch of their best basketball in beating Kentucky and Mississippi State. Today in Nashville, the Vols turned it over 17 times and surrendered 13 offensive rebounds. That’s thirty extra possessions. Auburn turned it over seven times, and the Vols had four offensive rebounds. You can do the math. And all of this happened after a back-to-back stretch of their best basketball in beating Mississippi State and Kentucky.

Both times, the Vols faced the Tigers feeling great about themselves, with a championship at stake. Both times, the Vols gave it away.

No one will give it to you.

This Tennessee team is good enough to take it. The lesson, now 34 games into this season and left at the championship altar twice, is you have to take it every night, every possession.

Failure to live that truth cost the Vols two rings.

There’s one ring left.

No one will give it to you. Tennessee has to look in the mirror and remember Auburn. And when they’ve taken a long, hard look at that, they’ll still see a team that is more than capable of taking it.

Keep getting better.

The Vols have beaten better Kentucky teams. John Wall and Demarcus Cousins in 2010. A Final Four squad with Jamal Mashburn in 1993. But I’m not sure a Tennessee win over Kentucky has ever meant as much; I know it hasn’t in my post-Ernie/Bernie lifetime.

A lot of it is a No. 1 seed, which would be the program’s first. We’ve still got to get through Auburn and the selection committee tomorrow, but the Vols have to be considered a favorite to earn one now.

Tennessee was 5-4 against Kentucky under Rick Barnes coming into today. They won at Rupp last year, which is just below the Elite Eight and SEC Tournament titles in frequency around here. That one helped secure an SEC title and solidify this group of players on the national scene. And it really was the national scene today: the biggest game in the 3:30 PM window, in what felt like a play-in for a No. 1 seed.

And Kentucky was good. March will decide how good, ultimately, by UK’s own standards. But all five starters scored in double figures, and Kentucky shot 53.6% from the floor two weeks after making only 14 shots in Knoxville. And the Cats shot 5-of-11 (45.5%) from the arc. This year Kentucky was 24-0 when shooting at least 28%; the last time they lost shooting at least 45% was at Texas A&M in overtime three years ago.

Kentucky went up eight with 2:58 to play. It didn’t feel familiar, because nothing about the weekend in the SEC Tournament is familiar for us yet. But it didn’t feel out of place: good game, good effort from Tennessee, let’s go to the bracket and try to win our way there. The SEC Tournament isn’t Rupp, but Kentucky isn’t the away team either. And in the kind of environment we saw today, good Kentucky teams are expected to get the best of good Tennessee teams.

But this Tennessee team is something more. We’ve seen it all year. And it never looked better than today.

Here’s the final sequence from the 2:58 mark:

• Grant Williams two free throws, Vols down six
• Tyler Herro turnover
• Grant Williams and-one, Vols down three
• PJ Washington bucket, Vols down five
• Admiral Schofield three, Vols down two
• Lamonte Turner steal
• Grant Williams three, Vols up one
• PJ Washington tip-in, Vols down one
• Admiral Schofield miss, Grant Williams offensive rebound, timeout
• Lamonte Turner three, Vols up two
• PJ Washington miss, offensive rebound, miss, Jordan Bone rebound
• Cue the free throws
• Hit the music

PJ Washington was great today, 16 points on 6-of-11 shooting in only 20 foul-plagued minutes. The tip he missed in the final seconds reminded me of Tim Duncan in Game 7 of the 2013 NBA Finals. You just expect him to make that shot. And he missed.

Down the stretch, Kentucky’s best players didn’t convert. Instead, Tennessee’s best players made the best plays in the best win of the best year.

Admiral Schofield adding to his legend. Grant Williams taking Reid Travis with an and-one, a corner three, and a monstrous offensive rebound. Lamonte Turner doing what Lamonte Turner loves to do at the end of games. Jordan Bone grabbing that last rebound and going 4-for-4 at the line.

Our old RTT colleague and friend of the blog Chris Pendley likened it to a Hulk Hogan performance at the end of the match: take your best shots, but in the end we simply won’t sell them. Right hands, big boot, leg drop. 1-2-3. Whatcha gonna do.

There is so much that’s still new in this season. Having Tennessee’s best be better than Kentucky’s on a neutral floor in a year when both are battling against each other for a No. 1 seed? Having it be Tennessee’s players that make all those players in a game like this at the end?

This team simply keeps getting better. And that’s good, because they’re less than 24 hours away from a chance to win the SEC Tournament for the first time in my life, and many of yours. And then they’re headed to the NCAA Tournament, probably atop a region for the first time ever. And then…

Go Vols.

https://twitter.com/Vol_Hoops/status/1107058539959324672

It belongs in a museum.

.@admiralelite15 CAN FLY ✈️#SECTourney pic.twitter.com/HtfBhp6wYI

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) March 16, 2019

So, look. This is a year when hyperbole is available on a regular basis for Tennessee. Jordan Bowden’s dunk at Vanderbilt is one of the best I’ve ever seen by a Tennessee player. And it came at a crucial moment, with the Vols down five with under four to play.

But this thing last night was a masterpiece.

• As Lamonte Turner pointed out postgame, Schofield jumped off his right foot and dunked right-handed. I didn’t even notice that in the carnage.
• The perfect timing of, “Building ready to exploOOOOOOODE!” on commentary.
• The perfect follow-up of total silence from the announce crew, which is so hard to do. Kudos to those guys for not being bigger than the moment itself.
• The baseline ref’s extra body language in calling the blocking foul.
• Schofield’s wrestling heel walkaway.

Also, a credit to the victim, freshman Robert Woodard, for trying to take that charge. Defensive effort should always be applauded in moments like this, in a big game the Bulldogs were on the verge of watching slip away. That kid tried to make a play. And his feet weren’t far from making it happen. That’s the risk required: sometimes you’re the hero, and sometimes you’re on the tracks when the train’s coming through.

Tennessee’s train, by the way, was incredibly efficient last night. Late fouls put the Vols on the line 15 times for the night, but UT’s first free throw came with 10:53 left in the game. But it felt more weird than wrong: the game had great flow with few fouls on either side, and Tennessee was getting the shots they wanted.

On the night, the Vols had 66 field goal attempts, fourth-most in regulation on the season. And only 11 of them were threes, second-fewest on the season.

After taking Auburn’s bait in the regular season finale, the Vols imposed their will on a good Mississippi State team for the second time in ten days. Obviously Schofield (20 points on 9-of-12) and Williams (16 on 8-of-17) were terrific. But getting not just Jordan Bone, but Lamonte Turner active inside the arc was critical.

For Turner, it wasn’t just the assists (eight, with Bone’s nine). Lamonte is an incredibly efficient scorer inside the arc: 35-of-58 (60.3%) in league play, eighth-best in the conference. Tennessee’s guards created in ways that sucked in the defense, and one of the biggest beneficiaries was Kyle Alexander: 16 points and seven offensive rebounds.

It’s not rocket science, but Tennessee’s offense has been so good all year in so many ways, it’s easy to forget what brings out their very best. Last night was good, old-fashioned basketball: guards penetrate and distribute, big men clean it up, let your two best players take the most shots.

None of that will come as easy against Kentucky.

We Could Get Used To This

The Vols find themselves playing the weekend in the SEC Tournament for just the sixth time since 1991. But as it’s now also the sixth time since 2008, perhaps we can start to put some of these old ghosts to bed.

This will also be the third weekend meeting between Tennessee and Kentucky of the decade. In 2010 on Saturday, the Vols were down six with nine minutes to play, but lost by 29 (and then both teams made the Elite Eight). Last year on Sunday, the Vols turned back a 17-point Kentucky lead in the first half to take the lead briefly in the second, and pulled back with one on a Jordan Bone shot with 1:26 to play. But Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished off an incredible afternoon (29 points and 7 rebounds) down the stretch, and Kentucky won by five.

This year the regular season meeting in Rupp Arena was the highest-ranked Tennessee-Kentucky game ever, the one in Knoxville perhaps the best performance by the Vols all season. But this one feels like it has the most at stake.

Virginia and Gonzaga are both already down this week; the Cavs should still be a No. 1 seed, and Gonzaga should still be headed to Anaheim at No. 1 or No. 2. Duke’s narrow win over North Carolina makes things more complicated than the alternative for the selection committee; a Florida State victory in the ACC finals tonight would only help the winner of the Vols and Wildcats. But right now, both Tennessee and Kentucky are ahead of North Carolina in NET, and the Tar Heels now have six losses to Tennessee’s four and Kentucky’s five.

The door feels rightfully open for the winner of Tennessee and Kentucky to earn a No. 1 seed, with Kansas City the most likely destination. But I don’t think anything is off the table at this point; if Duke falls to Florida State and the Vols win the SEC Tournament, there’s a scenario where Tennessee could go to Louisville as the No. 1 seed.

The Cats remain uncomplicated: 24-0 when shooting at least 28% from three, 3-5 when they don’t. Free throws have been the biggest disparity between these two teams this year: Kentucky is 42-of-62 (67.7%) in our two meetings, Tennessee 23-of-32 (71.9%). Tennessee doesn’t have to have it to win – the Vols (in)famously shot zero free throws in the second half against the Cats in Knoxville and won by 19 – and aren’t built to have everything go through the free throw line anyway, as we saw last night. The biggest thing Tennessee can do is defend their butts off, again. Kentucky made 14 shots in Knoxville. This time they’ll have Reid Travis back in the mix. But if Tennessee is going to beat Kentucky to earn a No. 1 seed – and if Tennessee is going to advance deep into March – it will be their defense that makes the difference.

Tennessee’s program, largely because of this team and its coaching staff, has played itself into an opportunity like this. We’ve earned the right to be here. Now they’ll have to earn the right to advance. And it’s no surprise to find Kentucky on the other side of the equation once more.

The Vols and Cats will go approximately 20 minutes after the conclusion of Florida and Auburn, which tips at 1:00 PM ET. A No. 1 seed and a chance to win the SEC Tournament for the first time since 1979 are on the table. This is March.

Go Vols.

How much of Gonzaga’s loss is everyone else’s gain?

If the Zags are, in fact, a No. 2 seed now…they’re still almost certainly headed to Anaheim. With the Pac-12 looking like a one-or-two-bid league, none of the other contenders on the top two lines of the bracket are west of Texas. So even if a fourth No. 1 seed is now open, whoever earns it will be looking at a somewhat similar fate as teams near the bottom of the No. 2 line a week ago: headed west with a chance to meet Gonzaga in the Elite Eight, now with a slightly easier path to get there. “Teams will remain in or as close to their areas of natural interest as possible.” And since Gonzaga is the only candidate for whom Anaheim is of even remote natural interest…you get the idea.

With all the favorites winning in the ACC Tournament on Thursday, the bigger question now shifts to, “Will the selection committee put three teams from the same conference as No. 1 seeds?” It’s happened once before in the 64-team format: in 2009, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and UConn all sat atop the bracket from the Big East. Since then, however, we’ve only seen two years with two No. 1 seeds from the same conference: 2016 (North Carolina & Virginia) and 2018 (Villanova & Xavier).

If Virginia’s locked in, does it matter who wins between Duke and North Carolina? It seems less complicated for the Blue Devils to prevail: everyone in the free world wants to put full-strength Duke atop the bracket, especially after Zion Williamson went 13-of-13 from the floor in his return last night. A Duke win would remove some of the luster from Carolina’s pair of regular season victories in the rivalry, as they were Zion-free, and the Tar Heels already trail in NET (seventh) and KenPom (fifth). Another Carolina win would almost certainly ensure they’re a No. 1 seed, but it’s just tougher for me to see the committee putting Duke on the No. 2 line.

Of course, none of this should matter if Tennessee wins the SEC Tournament.

About that…

You know the drill by now: the Vols won the SEC Tournament when it was reinstated in 1979…and that’s it. Tennessee made the semifinals from 1982-84 and again in 1989, and famously made a run to the title game behind Allan Houston in 1991. Since then, the Vols made it to Saturday in 2008, 2010, and 2014, and to Sunday in 2009 and last season. Four times in the last 20 years the Vols received a double-bye, but lost their first game on Friday (1999, 2000, 2006, 2012). This is a historic season, but just winning tonight still qualifies as noteworthy when it comes to the Vols and this tournament.

Tennessee beat Mississippi State ten days ago in one of its finest performances of the season, 71-54 in Knoxville. The Bulldogs shot 36.6% from the floor, 4-of-20 from the arc, and 12-of-22 from the line. They also turned it over 17 times, a signature performance from the defense the Vols will need to advance this month. But last night, Mississippi State burned it down: 53.4% from the floor, 11-of-25 (44%) from the arc, and 7-of-9 at the line in an 80-54 beat down of Texas A&M.

The worst part about the double bye is catching a team that’s good and warmed up in a new arena. Last night’s performance certainly qualifies for Mississippi State. To get to the No. 1 seed conversation and another potential rubber match with Kentucky, the Vols have to go through the Bulldogs first. It will require the poise this Tennessee team should know well by now.

Put the coffee on. We’ll see you tonight.

As the Vols entered the NCAA Tournament last year, there was no blueprint. SEC Champions at 25-8 (13-5) and a No. 3 seed, Tennessee was capable of winning games in a variety of ways. Turns out we didn’t have the drawings for Kyle Alexander’s absence and divine intervention on a Loyola-Chicago bounce. You just never know in March. But that team had as good of a chance to advance in the NCAA Tournament as any in Tennessee’s history.

And, as we’ve known for months now, this year’s team is more than just better than last year.

March works both ways. The only Tennessee team to make the Elite Eight in 2010 lost five times in the regular season by double digits, then by 29 to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament. They survived No. 11 seed San Diego State in round one, and took advantage of an upset in thrashing No. 14 Ohio in round two. And then they played one of the finest games in school history in beating No. 2 Ohio State, and were seconds away from the Final Four against No. 5 Michigan State.

Sometimes you get that path to the promised land: 11, 14, two, and five. Or the one that was in front of the Vols last season: 14, 11, then what would have been seven and nine in Atlanta.

Sometimes you get chalk. The next-closest Tennessee team to the promised land was 2007, who survived a knock-down, drag-out No. 4 vs No. 5 game with Virginia in the second round, then had a 20-point lead on No. 1 Ohio State before giving it away at the free throw line.

And sometimes you get 2014: millimeters away from firing the coach, then winning in overtime in the First Four, then beat downs of No. 6 UMass and another thrashing of another Cinderella in No. 14 Mercer in round two. And then falling to No. 2 Michigan in the Sweet 16 on a hotly disputed charge call.

When we throw around, “The best in school history,” how do we define it? In recent years, was it 2008? Ranked number one after another of the finest games in school history at Memphis, outright SEC Champions, but vanquished by 19 points in a bad match-up in the Sweet 16? Is it Pearl’s first team, easily one of the most memorable seasons in school history, who fought their way to a No. 2 seed only to fall in round two?

Seasons are always heavily influenced by where they end in March, but as all of them end with a loss save the champion, you have to be sure to celebrate appropriately along the way. Last year’s Vols got the nets and the SEC rings at 13-5. This year’s Vols went 15-3 and will come away empty handed on that particular piece of jewelry.

But everything, ultimately, is about giving yourself the best chance to win in the bracket. Not all jewelry is created equal. Build your team to produce its best basketball at the right time, and win enough games to make that path as easy as possible.

We love KenPom for many reasons, but one is its objectivity. So when ranking the best teams in recent history, it looks like this in that metric:

Season	KenPom	Finish
2014	23.69	S16
2018	22.27	R2
2008	22.17	S16
2006	19.44	R2
2010	18.50	E8
2007	18.29	S16

Cuonzo Martin’s last team, play-for-play, rated the best of this era before this season began. It lost a ton of close games (0-6 in games decided by six points or less) and rated 341st in luck in KenPom. But it was also capable of evisceration, as it did to Virginia by 35 and plenty of other teams down the stretch. This team, after all, had more NBA players on it than any in Tennessee’s recent history.

Meanwhile the 2008 Vols – 13-3 in games decided by six points or less – finished fourth in luck in KenPom. The 2010 Vols weren’t far behind at 20th, going 6-1 in games decided by six points or less before falling to Michigan State.

Which season is best or most memorable? Much of that is up to you to decide. You never know in March.

Here’s what we do know: no matter what happens in the SEC Tournament, this Tennessee team will be better positioned to make a run to the Final Four than any I’ve ever seen.

Tennessee’s current KenPom rating is 27.93. That would make them a 4-6 point favorite over 2008, 2014, and last season; they’d be almost a 10-point favorite over the 2010 Elite Eight squad. And they’re 145th in luck, going 4-3 in games decided by six points or less. As always, the best way to win close games is not to play them. And Tennessee is playing them against the right teams: five of those seven close game opponents are going to the NCAA Tournament, six if Alabama can get in.

This team has some incredible parts. Grant Williams just won SEC Player of the Year back-to-back. Admiral Schofield and Jordan Bone also earned first-or-second team all-conference honors. In the post-Ernie/Bernie era, only three Tennessee teams have placed three players on first-or-second All-SEC teams:

• 1981: Gary Carter, Dale Ellis, Howard Wood
• 2008: Chris Lofton, Tyler Smith, JaJuan Smith
• 2019: Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, Jordan Bone

We have seen incredible individual efforts from these guys. Grant Williams with 43 at Vanderbilt. Admiral Schofield with 30 against Gonzaga. Jordan Bone with 27 against Kentucky. But Tennessee’s best basketball still does not follow any individual blueprint. This goes the other way too: Lamonte Turner certainly struggled from the arc in Tennessee’s losses, but he also went a combined 0-for-7 in Tennessee’s two best performances of the season against Kentucky and Mississippi State, and had a signature performance in one of Tennessee’s best wins at Ole Miss.

We’re well-versed in what gets Tennessee beat: opponents getting to the free throw line far more often than the Vols. What qualifies as Tennessee’s best basketball is, in part, the opposite of this: great defense without putting the other team on the line. What the Vols did against Kentucky and Mississippi State is what will get them through in March.

But the Vols are also more than great individuals on the other end of the floor. The Vols are 24-1 when they have at least 15 assists, 3-3 when they don’t.

For all the strengths of their individuals, Tennessee’s best basketball still comes when the team flows together: a commitment to great defense without fouling, and an offense that flows through good ball movement creating great shots. One fly, we all fly indeed.