Author Archives: Will Shelton

Despite everything that’s happened the last 11 years, Tennessee is still 11th in winning percentage all-time, still second in the SEC behind Alabama. This is Tennessee’s historical DNA in both football and basketball: the first challenger to the thrones in Tuscaloosa and Lexington.

But Tennessee’s struggles from Phillip Fulmer’s final season through Jeremy Pruitt’s first are unique among their blue-blood brethren. I’m not sure any of the 15 winningest programs in college football history have seen a stretch of sub-.500 football in the modern era like the one Tennessee is currently enduring.

We already know 2017 was Tennessee’s worst season of at least the last 50 years, and not just in wins and losses: that season finishing in the 17th percentile in estimated S&P+ means Pruitt inherited a deeper hole than any of his current SEC contemporaries in year one. That appears to have been rock bottom, but as we know it took more than a one-year drop-off from 2016 to 2017 to truly get there.

From 2008-18, the Vols are 67-70. That .489 winning percentage is 73rd nationally in that span, better only than Kentucky (.457) and Vanderbilt (.428) in the SEC. Some Top 15 programs have hovered around .500 or even further below for several years in the modern era, but I couldn’t find any stretch of sub-.500 football for this long.

Before we spend some time looking at how the Vols have gotten out of similar holes (if not quite as deep and complex) in their own history, I wanted to see if there were comparisons with other historic programs. Here’s as close as I could reasonably come in search of those comparisons:

Oklahoma 1994-99

• All-Time Winning Percentage: .724, fifth
• 1994-99: 30-38-1

Oklahoma went 6-6 in Gary Gibbs’ final season, then hired Howard Schnellenberger. He went 5-5-1 in 1995, then resigned. They hired John Blake, who went 12-22 in three years. Then Bob Stoops went 7-5 in his first season. Of course, they won the BCS title in year two.

Southern Cal 1996-2001

• All-Time Winning Percentage: .698, seventh
• 1996-2001: 37-35

John Robinson won the Rose Bowl in 1995, but went 6-6 and 6-5 the next two years and was out. Paul Hackett came in and went 8-5, 6-6, and 5-7; Wikipedia notes it was USC’s first consecutive non-winning seasons since 1960-61. Pete Carroll went 6-6 in his first season. After that: 11-2, 12-1 and a title, 13-0 and another title.

LSU 1989-94

• All-Time Winning Percentage: .652, 13th
• 1989-94: 25-41

Mike Archer went 4-7 and 5-6 in his last two seasons. Curley Hallman went 16-28 over the next four seasons, never making a bowl game and leading a 2-9 squad in 1992. Gerry DiNardo was hired and went 7-4-1, 10-2, and 9-3 his first three seasons, but stumbled to 4-7 and 3-9 to close out the 1990’s. LSU hired Nick Saban and the rest is history.

So we’ve seen top-tier teams struggle as much or more than Tennessee in recent history, but only for about half as long. Programs like Oklahoma had unusual coaching turnover that contributed to the problem. While it’s difficult to duplicate Tennessee’s weirdness in the last 11 years, programs we might point to with similar circumstances both found their way out of it sooner and weren’t as bad for as long. Alabama had Mike DuBose in 2000, Dennis Franchione for two seasons, the infamous Mike Price hiring and firing, then Mike Shula to take over in 2003. But the Tide still went 53-40 on the field between DuBose’s final season and Saban’s first, though the official, post-violation record books have them at 32-46 in that span. Other programs had individual coaches that definitely didn’t work – Rich Rodriguez, Gerry Faust – but the next guy brought an upswing.

It’s obvious Butch Jones wasn’t that guy, but it’s still interesting to note how close he was to breaking Tennessee’s down cycle for at least one or two seasons. If the Vols stop Florida on any fourth down in 2015 to win the SEC East, and/or beat Vanderbilt to make the New Year’s Six in 2016, Jones would’ve been seen more like LSU’s DiNardo: not the guy long-term, but brought Tennessee back to tangible prominence for at least a moment and made life easier on the next guy. But you can’t really say the same thing about a pair of 9-4’s when they’re followed by the worst season of at least the modern era.

So we rightfully keep looking at the valley Tennessee has been in as a continuous walk for the last 11 years, with the sub-.500 football to prove it. If there’s a benefit here, it’s the way the length of the journey has forced healthier expectations upon us for Jeremy Pruitt’s second season. It wasn’t one bad hire or even six years away as was the case for Oklahoma, Southern Cal, and LSU. One great hire put a national championship in their hands in year two for Stoops, year three for Carroll, and year four for Saban. Given the length of Tennessee’s absence from that conversation, it should rightfully take a little more time to figure out if Pruitt is that kind of great coach, with other steps rightfully celebrated along the way.

We saved the worst for last. In our series on where Tennessee can make the most progress in 2019, we’ve explored:

• A defense with just 15 turnovers in each of the last two seasons
• The Vols running fewer plays than any team in the nation last year
• Opponents scoring points on 41 of 45 red zone trips
• A higher percentage of explosive plays than we thought in the passing game, but not in the running game

But if you’re looking for the thing Tennessee was absolutely, positively worst at last season, it’s third-and-short.

Last year Tennessee ran the ball 21 times on 3rd-&-1-to-3. They gained just 20 yards. Those 0.95 yards per carry on third-and-short weren’t just last in the country: Liberty finished 129th, and averaged 1.52 yards per carry. The Vols were the only team in America to average less than a yard-and-a-half per carry on third-and-short, and the Vols averaged less than a yard period.

(Stats, as always, via SportSource Analytics)

Those 21 carries led to 10 first downs, meaning the Vols converted just 47.6% of the time when running the ball on third-and-short. By comparison, here’s what Tennessee did in other situations last fall:

	Att	First Downs	Success Rate
3rd 1-3 Run	21	10	47.62%
3rd 1-3 Pass	10	4	40.00%
3rd 4-6 Run	9	2	22.22%
3rd 4-6 Pass	28	15	53.57%
3rd 7-9 Run	7	3	42.86%
3rd 7-9 Pass	28	13	46.43%
3rd 10+ Pass	34	11	32.35%

Statistically speaking, it was better for the Vols to be in 3rd-&-4-6 and pass than 3rd-&-1-3 and run. And Tennessee had more or less the same chance of getting a first down on a third-and-short run and a third-and-long pass.

The truth is, if you’re in third-and-short, you’ve done fairly well on first and second down. But Tennessee struggled mightily to convert from there. Here’s what the rest of the SEC did when running it on third-and-short:

	Att	Yards	Avg	1st Downs	Success Rate
Georgia	36	188	5.22	26	72.22%
Missouri	45	178	3.96	31	68.89%
Florida	42	178	4.24	28	66.67%
Texas A&M	32	140	4.38	21	65.63%
Kentucky	46	156	3.39	30	65.22%
Alabama	43	182	4.23	28	65.12%
Mississippi State	52	281	5.40	32	61.54%
Auburn	45	266	5.91	27	60.00%
LSU	49	198	4.04	29	59.18%
Arkansas	20	31	1.55	11	55.00%
Ole Miss	34	93	2.74	17	50.00%
Vanderbilt	24	113	4.71	12	50.00%
Tennessee	21	20	0.95	10	47.62%
South Carolina	21	51	2.43	8	38.10%

Obviously, it would be hard to get much worse in this department. The good news is, because you’re already in a short yardage situation, a little improvement goes a long way toward keeping a drive alive. There may also be a stubbornness component here: I’d imagine Jeremy Pruitt/Tyson Helton had to see it several times to believe the Vols really couldn’t move the pile on third-and-short. Pruitt and Chaney are likely to believe it sooner if it happens again this fall.

In 2016 the Vols were one of the most explosive teams in the country: 79 plays of 20+ yards, 19th nationally. In 2017, the bottom fell out hardest here: only 38 plays of 20+ yards, 123rd nationally.

Here too, progress was slow but accounted for last season: 52 plays of 20+ yards, 96th nationally. But remember, Tennessee ran fewer plays than any team in the nation last year. So those 52 explosive plays represented a higher percentage of the whole.

In fact, in the passing game the Vols were really good in their ratio of explosive plays to total passing attempts. In the post-Fulmer era, Jarrett Guarantano’s 7.8 yards per attempt trailed only Tyler Bray (8.3 in the last five games of 2010, 8.0 in 2011 and 2012) and Josh Dobbs in 2016 (8.3). And the percentage of big plays was even higher last season.

Here’s the percentage of 20+ yard passing plays in Tennessee’s total passing attempts this decade:

Season	Passing Att	20+	%
2018	297	39	13.1%
2017	319	25	7.8%
2016	379	50	13.2%
2015	371	36	9.7%
2014	453	44	9.7%
2013	344	32	9.3%
2012	477	53	11.1%
2011	400	29	7.3%
2010	419	54	12.9%

(Stats via Sport Source Analytics)

Guarantano (with a small assist from Keller Chryst) connected on big plays in the passing game at a better rate than any Vol squad other than the 2016 offensive juggernaut. Those numbers don’t include sacks as passing attempts – Vol QBs went down on about 7% of drop backs – but Tennessee was still potent in the passing game, thanks in part to the work of Marquez Callaway, Jauan Jennings, and Josh Palmer on the other end of the play. Palmer’s 21.04 yards per catch were the most by any Vol this decade with 20+ receptions in a season; Callaway’s 16 yards per catch trailed only Josh Malone in 2016 (19.44), Cordarrelle Patterson in 2012 (16.91), and Denarius Moore in 2010 (20.87) among those with 35+ receptions in a season.

The Vols may not want to go fast, but they have all the tools to go big in the passing game, including what should be an improved offensive line.

Explosiveness in the running game, however…here’s the percentage of 10+ yard running plays in Tennessee’s total rushing attempts this decade:

Season	Rushing Att	10+	%
2018	419	49	11.7%
2017	413	46	11.1%
2016	517	85	16.4%
2015	617	95	15.4%
2014	524	61	11.6%
2013	460	69	15.0%
2012	413	51	12.3%
2011	392	30	7.7%
2010	408	50	12.3%

As you’d expect: slightly better than 2017, but in a group of sub-par performances that only top 2011, when the Vols had no passing game to keep defenses honest after Tyler Bray’s injury.

Ty Chandler got hot late in the season and finished with 5.48 yards per carry. But Tim Jordan actually carried the ball most (132 attempts to 115 for Chandler), and his 3.95 average was the lowest for the lead back since Tauren Poole’s 3.71 in that 2011 season. Tennessee’s additional options to find balance created few sparks: Madre London had 206 yards on 42 carries (4.90 per), Jeremy Banks 185 yards on 52 carries (3.56 per).

An improved offensive line should help here, and Eric Gray could provide those needed sparks to assist Chandler and Jordan. Could the Vols use the passing game to set up the run more in 2019? With Pruitt’s conservative nature, that will be interesting to watch. But with the right combination of existing pieces, new faces, and a willingness to pursue more big plays, Tennessee’s offense could show significant improvement in this department.

Magazines are hitting shelves – get ours here! – and with them an early round of bowl projections for Tennessee. The good news: I haven’t seen the Vols projected to come up empty in the postseason yet, nor have I seen Tennessee projected to spend December in Birmingham or Shreveport.

It’s all an educated guessing game at this point; a couple of outlets have the Vols projected to the Belk (247) and Gator (Sporting News) Bowls. But these two and their SEC group of six counterparts – the Outback, Music City, Liberty, and Texas bowls – are reasonable destinations for Tennessee this fall. Any bowl appearance would be progress by definition, but an expectation for the Vols to get back in this group of six tier comes with a ceiling at its top in Tampa, or just beyond it in Orlando.

The first question to ask when making these projections is, “How many SEC teams do you think will make the College Football Playoff & New Year’s Six?” In the first five years of the playoff, the SEC put 14 teams in those two tiers, an average of 2.8 per year. With the semifinals in Atlanta and Tempe this year, the Sugar Bowl will automatically take the highest-rated SEC team not in the playoffs; that means at least two from this conference off the board if you expect Alabama to make it six-for-six in the CFP. Last season we saw a record four SEC teams come off the board before the Citrus Bowl, with the Tide in the playoff and LSU, Georgia, and Florida all in the New Year’s Six.

The Citrus Bowl picks next, then the league office works with schools and bowls to “assign” teams to the group of six games. Here’s how all of that has looked since the playoff began in 2014:

	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Alabama	CFP	CFP	CFP	CFP	CFP
Arkansas	G6	G6	G6
Auburn	G6	Other	NY6	NY6	G6
Florida	Other	Citrus	G6		NY6
Georgia	G6	G6	G6	CFP	NY6
Kentucky			G6	G6	Citrus
LSU	G6	G6	Citrus	Citrus	NY6
Mississippi	NY6	NY6
Mississippi State	NY6	G6	Other	G6	G6
Missouri	Citrus			G6	G6
South Carolina	Other		Other	G6	G6
Tennessee	G6	G6	G6
Texas A&M	G6	G6	G6	G6	G6
Vanderbilt			Other		G6

If the SEC gets three teams in the CFP and New Year’s Six, and the fourth team goes to the Citrus Bowl, the Vols or anyone else would just need to be considered one of the ten best teams in the league to make a group of six bowl. Seeing Tennessee routinely projected in this group suggests an expectation the Vols won’t just sneak in at 6-6, but fall in line with their Vegas projection of 7-5.

We wrote on the value of 7-5 a few weeks ago, but the bowl game adds another layer of context. If the Vols hit their Vegas number and win the bowl game, an 8-5 finish would be the third best season of the last 12 years:

• 9-4: Butch Years 3 & 4
• 8-5:
• 7-6: Kiffin, Butch Year 2
• 6-7: Dooley Year 1
• 5-7: Fulmer Final Year, Dooley Years 2 & 3, Butch Year 1, Pruitt Year 1
• 4-8: Butch Year 5

The relative value of 7-5 would depend on which seven and which five, but should easily slide the Vols into a group of six bowl for a shot at a nice aftertaste. That continues to look like a reasonable expectation for Tennessee this fall.

Here are Tennessee’s stops in the red zone last season:

• Alabama went for it on fourth down up 58-21 with four minutes left
• South Carolina took a knee in the red zone at the end of the game
• Kentucky had a field goal blocked with the Vols up 24-7 with 12 minutes left
• Vanderbilt missed a field goal leading 17-7 early in the third quarter

And that’s it.

Opponents converted 41 of 45 red zone opportunities against the Vols last year, 91.1%, and only two of those four stops came in meaningful situations. That scoring percentage ranked 120th nationally last fall. Opponents scored touchdowns 30 times in those 45 trips; a 66.7% red zone touchdown percentage ranked 90th nationally.

(stats via SportSource Analytics)

As you might expect, the Vols were bad at this in 2017 too: 50 red zone visits, only five stops. Tennessee also gave up 35 touchdowns in those visits; 70% is Tennessee’s worst red zone touchdown percentage of the decade.

But it’s also a stat the Vols haven’t excelled at in a long time. In 2015 Tennessee held teams to a 56.1% touchdown percentage, but gave up seven touchdowns in eight visits against Oklahoma and Florida, setting a tone that was hard to forget. In 2014 Tennessee allowed only 34 red zone visits, but gave up points 32 times. You have to go back to teams with Fulmer’s final recruits on them to find more success: a 45.5% touchdown percentage in 2009, 52.1% with a 79.2% scoring percentage in 2010.

A note of interest for 2019: on offense, last year Mississippi State led the SEC in red zone touchdown percentage at 69.1%; BYU was slightly better at 69.2%. Those two teams don’t strike the same extreme fears as some of Tennessee’s recent non-conference and cross-divisional opponents, but both were incredibly efficient in the red zone.

If last year was about getting out of the basement, consider the progress available if Tennessee just moves toward average football in some of these key categories. Last season the Vols moved from rankings in the 120’s to rankings in the 80’s and 90’s in many categories. The median for turnovers forced last year was 19; Tennessee forced only 15. The median for red zone scoring percentage allowed was 83%, with a 60% touchdown percentage. If the Vols can just get from 91% and 67% to those average numbers, it can make a real difference in close games.

One big question for both turnovers and stops in the red zone: who are the playmakers on defense? The Vols will need more than Darrell Taylor and their sophomore corners to make a meaningful difference here.

No team in the country ran fewer plays than Tennessee last season.

The Vols had 716 snaps in 12 games, 59.7 per contest. Maryland was next with 728 snaps. Tennessee also flirted with last place in this category in 2017 – 732 snaps, 125th nationally – but the offense did make strides from one year to the next. The Vols ran fewer plays for the reasons you’d expect in 2017, but were better in all of those categories last fall:

	2017	Rank	2018	Rank
Yards Per Play	4.77	120	5.46	88
Punts Per Game	5.9	23	5.5	33
Third Down %	30.7%	120	38.2%	74
Time of Poss.	28:14	104	29:10	86
Turnovers	18	48	16	30

(stats from SportSource Analytics)

The offense improved, but the pace slowed even more. I wouldn’t expect Tennessee to lead the league in total plays under Jeremy Pruitt, no matter who the offensive coordinator is. But we speculated throughout last fall if Tennessee was going slow on purpose, for protection of its defense or otherwise.

It was often easiest to arrive at that thought on first down. Last year the Vols attempted only 95 passes on first down, 119th nationally. Most of what’s behind them are service academies, Georgia Tech, and other option teams. Unlike some of those teams, the Vols played from behind for significant minutes against half of their schedule.

Running on first down could still bear fruit: Tennessee averaged 4.46 yards per carry on 1st-and-10, up from the 3.70 yards they averaged per carry overall. We’ll talk more about this when we get to what the Vols did on 3rd-and-1 in this series. But Tennessee’s 219 first down carries gave them a run/pass ratio of 69.7% on first down.

What kind of difference will Jim Chaney make? One of his greatest strengths is adapting the offense to the talent around him. With Tyler Bray in 2012, the Vols ran the ball just 55.8% of the time on first down. With Nick Chubb and Sony Michel in 2017, Georgia ran the ball a whopping 77.3% of the time on first down. The 2017 leaderboard of first down rushing attempts: Georgia, Air Force, Army, Navy.

In some ways we’ll just need to see it before saying how exactly the Vols will/should go faster in 2019. If Pruitt was, in fact, trying to protect his defense last fall, will it need the same protection this year with an entirely new defensive line? If the offense can excel with plenty of returning pieces and Chaney’s leadership, will the Vols intentionally engage in faster play and more points? There’s no guarantee the one will lead to the other: last year Tennessee’s most efficient day at the office came against Kentucky, where the Vols averaged 6.87 yards per play in just 60 snaps. But the season highs (79 plays vs Florida) and lows (46 at Georgia) produced the two least efficient days against power conference foes: 4.61 yards against the Gators, 4.54 against the Dawgs.

The Vols need to go a little faster with a little more balance on first down. How much more of each will represent their best football in 2019? Stay tuned.

Last summer we looked at five ways Tennessee could show the most improvement in 2018. As was the case with much of last season, progress was present but not in a hurry: Tennessee improved its third down conversation rate from 30.67% to 38.22%, but the other four categories still have plenty of room to grow.

This summer we’re diving deeper into the places Tennessee has the most room for improvement in 2019 with our Making Progress series, starting today with getting the ball back.

Rocket Science, etc.

How many times did Tennessee force more than one turnover last season? One was ETSU. The other two? You guessed it: Auburn and Kentucky. In the other nine games, the Vols forced a single turnover six times, and had the goose egg thrice (UTEP, Georgia, Vanderbilt).

It wasn’t just the volume, but the timing of turnovers in Tennessee’s win at Auburn:

• Auburn leading 10-3 2Q, Bryce Thompson INT at the UT 41, leads to UT touchdown.
• Game tied 10-10 2Q, Jonathan Kongbo trick play INT from the UT 36
• Vols leading 20-17 3Q, Sack-Fumble-TD

The Vols built their 24-7 lead over Kentucky with no assistance, then watched the Wildcats give it away three times in the final 10 minutes, twice inside the Tennessee 35, to prevent any idea of a comeback.

In a sense, it was the opposite problem from 2017. The Vols used a pair of turnovers to get the Georgia Tech game to overtime, but couldn’t beat the Gators despite three turnovers and lost at Kentucky despite a +4 margin. The offense failed to be opportunistic in 2017, then opportunity knocked only twice last fall.

The result: just 15 turnovers in each of the last two seasons, 97th nationally in 2017 and 101st in 2018 (stats via SportSource Analytics). That total joins anemic defenses from 2011 (18 turnovers), 2012 (17), and a what-could-have-been unit from 2015 (19 turnovers) in Tennessee failing to break 20 turnovers five times in the last eight years.

What makes the difference here? In 2017 the Vols recovered more fumbles, picking up ten loose balls with only five interceptions. Last year the Vols almost doubled their INT output with nine, plus six fumble recoveries. Both times the Vols recovered two-thirds of the fumbles they forced, meaning these numbers could’ve been even lower.

Who are the difference makers?

Bryce Thompson had three interceptions last year, Marquill Osborne two in those final ten minutes against Kentucky. Tennessee’s other interceptions last season came from the front seven: Kongbo against Auburn, Darrin Kirkland Jr. against ETSU, Kyle Phillip’s Piesman-winning play against Alabama, and Shy Tuttle had one at South Carolina.

It’s a little thin on the secondary, but I think we all feel pretty good about Thompson, Alontae Taylor, and Trevon Flowers continuing to grow back there. A big piece of this puzzle isn’t just the right guys covering receivers, but making a difference earlier in the play.

SB Nation’s Bill Connelly likes to point out that sack rate is the most reliable statistic when it comes to projecting a team’s turnover margin: the more often you hit the quarterback, the more likely you are to produce both fumbles and bad decisions that become interceptions. Last season the Vols averaged 2.08 sacks per game, 68th nationally. Eight of those 25 sacks came from Darrell Taylor, seven against Georgia and Kentucky. Like most things, it was an improvement over 2017 (22 sacks), but fell behind what the Vols accomplished in the Derek Barnett era (30 sacks in 2015 and 2016, 35 when Barnett and Curt Maggitt played together in 2014).

Something else to consider here: opposing quarterbacks completed 63% of their passes against Tennessee last year, 103rd nationally for the Vol defense. Some of it was who the Vols faced:

QB	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	YPA
Will Grier	25	34	73.5	429	12.6
Jake Fromm	16	22	72.7	187	8.4
Tua Tagovailoa	19	29	65.5	306	10.6
Drew Lock	21	30	70.0	257	8.6

…but then Kyle Shurmur went 31-of-35 (88.6%) for 367 yards and 10.5 per. No other team completed more than 80% of their passes against the Vols this decade; Shurmur flirted with 90%.

So, as is the point with this series, lots of room to grow. For Tennessee to turn progress into progress! in 2019, they will almost certainly need more turnovers. Some of it is luck, some of it maturation in the secondary. But Tennessee also has to be better at disrupting the passer, and giving itself more of a chance to make a play.

May is often the longest month for college football fans. And around here, this May falls in place behind the quietest spring practice I can remember. Basketball continues to own an unusual percentage of the conversation; it comes with the territory of the third-highest paying contract in the game and the process by which that contract came about. You’ll find more Tennessee players in 2019 NBA mock drafts than the actual 2019 NFL Draft and its 2020 mock counterparts. And the baseball Vols were ranked 20th last week before a sweep at #5 Arkansas bounced them from the polls, but they should make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2005.

Some of it is the other sports being at recent or historic highs. Some of it is football now on an 11-year run of 67-70. But this feels like the quietest build to a football season in a long time.

Is that all bad? There’s little good in the wearing down process of a decade-long decline. But perhaps there’s something healthy to be found not in lower expectations, but more reasonable ones.

Consider: what is 7-5 worth in 2019?

That’s Tennessee’s over/under in Vegas. If the Vols hit that mark, it would obviously be progress from 4-8 and 5-7 the last two years. But it would also represent more progress than either of Jeremy Pruitt’s two predecessors achieved in their second year.

The proverbial year two bump has been a part of our vernacular since Urban Meyer showed up at Florida. The last two times we’ve had a chance to see it? Well…

2011: Burn bright, burn fast, wait now we’re on fire

Among the “Tennessee’s Back!” False Alarm Hall of Fame – 2009 Georgia, 2013 South Carolina, the first six weeks of 2016 – few felt more promising than 2011 Cincinnati. With a nod to this year’s BYU matchup in week two, the Bearcats and their future-Vol head coach came to Knoxville in week two eight years ago. Derek Dooley’s Vols were coming off a 6-7 year zero one, 8-5 in games decided when the clock originally hit zero.

The numbers from that game are still eye-opening. Tyler Bray went 34-of-41 (82.9%!) for 405 yards, becoming the first non-Manning to throw for 400+ at Tennessee. Bray fired four touchdowns, zero interceptions. Da’Rick Rogers and Justin Hunter each caught 10+ passes for 100+ yards. The Vols went 10-of-13 on third down and punted once in a 45-23 win.

You don’t prove anything at Tennessee by beating Cincinnati (or BYU), but it felt like the prologue to the great story the Vols would write at Florida seven days later. And then Justin Hunter tore his ACL on the opening drive, and Tyler Bray broke his thumb against Georgia two games later. Injuries broke the Vols early, Kentucky buried them late, and Derek Dooley’s second season ended at 5-7. Before 2017, it might have been the least competitive season of my lifetime.

2014: It was supposed to be you.

Butch Jones didn’t follow the script perfectly leading into year two, thanks to a last-second loss to Vanderbilt that denied the Vols bowl eligibility in year one. But he did get the signature win that eluded Derek Dooley’s entire tenure, and was a fumble in overtime away from an even bigger win. More than anything, his recruiting classes – the ones coming in to play that August, and the ones who would arrive at February – made it feel like Tennessee’s return was inevitable.

And year two opened on schedule. The Vols faced pesky mid-majors from Utah State and Arkansas State to open, but handled both 38-7 and 34-19. At #4 Oklahoma in primetime, Justin Worley threw a pair of end zone interceptions in the second half, the latter returned 100 yards for a touchdown, making a 34-10 loss to the Sooners feel much more respectable. Then the Vols almost beat Georgia again, falling 35-32 thanks to a pair of second half fumbles, one in the Bulldog red zone and the other in Tennessee’s own end zone.

But all was well: the Vols were coming back to Knoxville, and a Gator team that lost its last seven games of 2013, needed three overtimes to beat Kentucky, and just fell by 21 to Alabama was teetering. Will Muschamp was on life support. The Vols would ascend. The moment was here.

For everything else that would happen during Butch Jones’ tenure – the multi-faceted heartbreak of 2015, 2016, and the total collapse in 2017 – this moment in 2014 remains one of the biggest missed opportunities. It’s a nice day outside, you don’t need me to rehash this game. The Vols lost 10-9. The neat and tidy narrative we’d been constructing for ourselves fell apart, almost entirely by our own hand.

Josh Dobbs saved the season a few weeks later. The Vols finished 6-6 and, thanks to a hungry fanbase eager for its first bowl game in four years, pole-vaulted their way to January 1 in the Taxslayer Bowl, decimated Iowa, and we set ourselves up for hope again. But all of that came after the story we thought we were getting – the story we thought we should get – fell apart.

2019: What’s the story now?

Hitting the Vegas number from four months away doesn’t feel like cause for celebration. If there’s magic to be had in year two, that would look more like 9-3. Keep in mind, the Vols haven’t had a 9-3 regular season since 2007, and haven’t finished an entire year with less than four losses since 2004. That’s fifteen years.

But if we can set magic to the side and just focus on progress, if the Vols do go 7-5 this fall? Jeremy Pruitt will be off to a better start than Derek Dooley and Butch Jones, despite digging out of a deeper hole post-2017. It’s not sexy, but it is noteworthy.

Be careful when falling in love with preseason projections from S&P+ and FPI. The Vols are 21st in the former and 15th in the latter. That’s great! But when both of those rating systems release their predicted win totals? S&P+ will probably have the Vols around 7-5; FPI might think about 8-4 but not by much. It’s not just where you’re ranked, it’s how many teams on your schedule are ranked ahead of you. In S&P+ that number is six, including four in the Top 10. In FPI it’s three, with Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Missouri right behind the Vols at 16, 19, and 20.

The closer you get to August, the more noise football will create. That part will always be true around here. But perhaps the relative quiet of this off-season and the length of our time in the wilderness will create a greater appreciation, even if just a little, of what just hitting the Vegas expectation might be worth this fall.