Author Archives: Will Shelton

Opening the season with what we believe to be back-to-back bubble teams gives you a chance to learn about the #12 Vols at an accelerated rate. But this one in particular will help answer one of the biggest questions Tennessee faced coming into the year.

Last year the Vols went to Cincinnati coming off the loss to Memphis; Lamonte Turner was struggling but still playing. Tennessee shot 45% from the floor and 17-of-17 at the free throw line…and lost by 12. That’s because the Bearcats shot 56.4% from the floor and a blistering 26-of-40 for 65% inside the arc. The last team to shoot better than that against the Vols from two was Wisconsin in Maui in November of 2016. And Cincinnati was +11 on the glass.

Tre Scott, with his 15 points in 38 minutes, is gone, as are the Cumberland brothers in the backcourt. Guard Keith Williams is back, and the Bearcats run a lot of their stuff through him. But the biggest challenge for Tennessee against this team returns: 7’1″ Chris Vogt, now joined by 6’10” Rapolas Ivanauskas, often on the floor at the same time.

Cincinnati is 2-1 with a loss to Xavier and wins over Lipscomb and Furman (#65 KenPom). And once again, they’re getting it done inside the arc (58.5%, 25th nationally) and keeping everyone off the offensive glass (13th nationally).

What will Tennessee do against this kind of size? And can the Vols rebound well enough to win?

The answer to the latter will look long and hard toward E.J. Anosike. The Vols didn’t rebound as well as Rick Barnes would’ve liked against Colorado (-6), but Anosike grabbed four offensive rebounds in 14 minutes. That Jarnell Stokes/Jeronne Maymon role we wanted to see if he could play looked good in the opener. Tennessee still got 10 rebounds from Yves Pons and the usual better-than-you-think rebounding from Josiah James with six boards. They will need all of that and more against this team, especially if shots aren’t falling again.

Defensively, Tennessee has made so much hay as a shot blocking team under Rick Barnes: fifth nationally in block percentage last year, 10th in 2019, and always in the Top 65 nationally even in the first two years when the Vols struggled. Last year the Vols blocked 7% of Cincinnati’s shots, half their normal average. When facing this kind of height at multiple positions, it’s hard for Pons to be everywhere and hard for anyone to be disruptive. The Vols created a different kind of havoc against Colorado, forcing a turnover on 35.7% of their possessions. It’s one game, but that’s currently second in the nation. The more you force turnovers, the fewer shots you need to block.

The Vols won’t see this kind of size often, but they will again if Kentucky continues to put 6’10” Isaiah Jackson and 7’0″ Olivier Sarr on the floor together. But Tennessee’s potential to be a better rebounding team will get a stiff test early. And as was the case with Colorado, non-conference performance will matter much more with smaller sample sizes due to the virus. The Vols are still trying to add one more game, but after this one our non-conference schedule features three teams hovering in the 200+ range in KenPom, then Kansas in January.

We’re still playing college football on Saturdays (which will become clear when you see the TV schedule), but check out the opportunities for the league in basketball tomorrow:

• Florida at #10 Florida State, 11:00 AM, ESPNU
• Mississippi State vs Dayton (Atlanta), 12:00 PM, ESPNews
• Notre Dame at Kentucky, 12:00 PM, CBS
• Cincinnati at #12 Tennessee, 12:30 PM, SEC Network Alternate
• Texas A&M at TCU, 2:00 PM, ESPN+
• Auburn vs Memphis (Atlanta), 5:00 PM, SEC Network Alternate
• Alabama vs Clemson (Atlanta), 7:30 PM, ACC Network
• #6 Illinois at Missouri, 8:00 PM, SEC Network Alternate

That’s a big spot for Cuozno’s team to help us all out.

The Vols can help themselves, and help us feel better about one of their few perceived weaknesses, by how they handle Cincinnati’s size tomorrow. Does Anosike get more minutes? Do the Vols again create so many turnovers it just doesn’t matter? Will the mid-range jumper be our friend this time?

See you at 12:30 tomorrow to find out.

Go Vols.

Almost nine months ago, the SEC Tournament was cancelled just before Tennessee and Alabama would’ve met in the quarterfinals. The Vols beat Missouri in football 66 days ago, which feels more or less the same as nine months ago.

The deep frustration with football can make it easy to forget to be grateful we got any sports at all this year. Basketball, in its sixth attempt for a season opener, reminded us of some of that today. And then for the first eight-and-a-half minutes, we got exactly what we wanted: the Vols jumped a good Colorado team 19-4, and not on the strength of their freshmen but their veterans.

The Buffaloes went to zone, and it worked, bogging everything down. But the Vols never relinquished the lead, and smothered Colorado throughout: the Buffaloes shot 33.3% from the field with 23 turnovers. Tennessee wasn’t much better, but they didn’t have to be in securing a 56-47 win in the season opener.

The first impressions:

Rick Barnes still loves the foul line jumper

Instead of the threes-and-frees game the NBA has become, Tennessee continues to generate a bunch of good looks in the mid-range. It’s not just something the Vols went to with Grant Williams to let him create: Tennessee got good looks from two from John Fulkerson, Yves Pons, and even E.J. Anosike. They did not go down easy: Pons was 1-of-9, Anosike 1-of-6, and Fulkerson came on late to finish 4-of-10. But they were there, seemingly by design again.

Meanwhile, the “who takes the threes,” question: Victor Bailey early, finishing 2-of-6. Jaden Springer late, with a pair of big shots in the second half. And Santiago Vescovi throughout, who hit 3-of-4. The Vols took 19 threes on the night, still finding their best looks inside the arc against the zone. Smallest sample size, of course, but we’ll see how many possessions go through the mid-range going forward.

The freshmen will earn trust

The vets started: Vescovi, JJJ, Pons, Fulkerson, and Victor Bailey. I was curious if they’d finish, and it looked like Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer would both give them a run for their money midway through the second half. Johnson had a couple of freshmen turnovers early and couldn’t get going, but made a pair of sensational defensive plays back-to-back, showing the excellent and unusual combination of tenacity and intelligence for a freshman. He added an alley-oop and a baseline jumper in the second half. But then he turned it over twice more, and exited the game at the under four. Jaden Springer turned it over immediately following, and the Vols went back to their starting five veteran lineup.

It worked: Colorado cut it to five with three to play, but the Vols responded with Fulkerson from the midrange. The defense drew a charge, then Josiah James created a turnover the next time down, and it was free throws from there.

When you only score 56, 10 combined points from your five-stars falls into context. I doubt Yves Pons is going to finish with two on 1-of-9 shooting very often, though he was a monster on the glass with 10 rebounds. But those guys will certainly get their chances…they’ll just have to earn them down the stretch by playing cleaner basketball along the way.

Early rotations & foul trouble

“Can they win if Fulkerson is in foul trouble,” is now 1-0. He picked up his third around 90 seconds into the second half, and though the Vols didn’t excel without him, they didn’t falter. Tennessee played a glorified nine-man rotation, with Uros Plavsic making a brief appearance in the first half. Otherwise it was what we thought: the veteran starters, two five stars, and Anosike, plus six minutes from Olivier Nkamhoua. Barnes was high on him early last season when Fulkerson was still establishing himself, and he got the game one vote of confidence as a bench piece.

Otherwise the Vols hit the numbers they wanted without going much over: the starting vets all played 30-35 minutes minus Fulkerson (23), Anosike played 14, Keon Johnson played 13, and Jaden Springer 9. Again, those last two numbers will increase as their turnover decrease, methinks.

It’s one game, but the Vols leapt into the Top 10 in KenPom defense at #7. Up next it’s Cincinnati on Saturday (12:30 PM before the Vols and Vandy at 4:00), in what could be another slugfest if it at all resembles last year’s game. There is a lot to improve on from tonight, but if defense is your most reliable tool in pandemic times, the Vols looked the part tonight.

1-0.

We would’ve taken the basketball Vols any way we could get them at this point: football struggling, five games cancelled, a shot at #1 Gonzaga lost. The fifth of those covid cancellations was UT-Martin, our in-state brethren a late replacement…and 334th in KenPom. Get well soon to the Skyhawks…but now, in their place, a much more interesting option has appeared.

hey wait is this about us https://t.co/dvooqkgauY

— Tennessee Basketball (@Vol_Hoops) December 6, 2020

Tad Boyle’s Buffaloes live and die on the bubble: four NCAA Tournament appearances, two NIT’s and a CBI in his first eight years in Boulder. Those four trips to the big dance all landed between 8-11 on the seed list; they were 21-11 (10-8) and projected to be somewhere in there again when things got shut down in March.

Nevermind the usual preseason games that don’t exist this season: Colorado will give the Vols a much tougher test than they usually see in game one under Rick Barnes. Tennessee played Xavier in the opener in Cuonzo Martin’s last season and VCU in Donnie Tyndall’s opener. Since then, Tennessee has opened with UNC Asheville, Chattanooga, Presbyterian, Lenoir-Rhyne, and Asheville again. This is not a warm-up for Cincinnati on Saturday; the Buffaloes should present a similar challenge.

The loss of Gonzaga will sting on Selection Sunday. Tennessee still gets Kansas in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, but the rest of our shortened non-conference schedule is now Colorado (KenPom #50), Cincinnati (#57), Appalachian State (#192), and a pair of cupcakes in Tennessee Tech (#321) and USC Upstate (#295). With a smaller sample size, it’ll be harder for the selection committee to differentiate between a good SEC team and a good Big East team, etc. Other than yet-to-play Tennessee and 2-0 Florida, conference heavyweights haven’t started clean: Kentucky lost to Richmond and Kansas, LSU lost to Saint Louis, Alabama was blown out by Stanford. For Tennessee, these opening games with Colorado and Cincinnati can go a long way in setting the opening tone.

@Vol_Hoops hastily scheduled game with @CUBuffsMBB was a good move for both teams. Such is life in the pandemic. Colorado PG McKinley Wright IV is one of the best in the country. Will Vols counter him with 2020 SEC Defensive POY Yves Pons, who can guard five positions?

— Chris Dortch (@cdortch) December 6, 2020

Wright was one of the best facilitators in the nation last season, both leading the team in scoring (14.4 ppg) and finishing 68th nationally in assist rate. He plays 35 minutes a night and started hot this year, getting 24 in Colorado’s 76-58 win at Kansas State. The Buffaloes have shown no ill effects from a five-game losing streak to end the 2019-20 campaign; they were 21-6 on February 22 before coming apart with an overtime loss to Utah and four others all by at least seven points.

The fun of the Pons potential – the “put him on the other team’s best player every night” scenario – is Wright goes just 6’0″. Last year Colorado also got double-figure scoring from 6’7″ Tyler Bey, a second round pick of the Dallas Mavericks. Now 6’8″ freshman Jabari Walker is off to a nice start, scoring 19 points with nine rebounds in just 32 minutes of work in the first two games. Like Tennessee, Colorado is heavy on seniors and freshmen: 6’6″ Maddox Daniels and 6’7″ Jeriah Horne join Wright as veterans, Keeshawn Barthelemy joins Walker as a freshman seeing significant action.

Boyle’s teams are usually defense-first and excel at taking away second chances. Last year the Buffaloes were 35th nationally in opponent threes attempted, but teams splashed 34.2% of those (234th nationally).

This leads to one of the most interesting questions about Tennessee: how many threes, and who takes them?

At their best two years ago, the Vols shot 36.7% from the arc, 63rd nationally, but finished just 324th in threes attempted. That offense could get what it wanted through great ball movement, a staple of Barnes’ teams here. Last year the Vols were 217th nationally in threes attempted.

The lineups will be fascinating to see by themselves. But in particular, who gets the green light to shoot, and if this thing tightens up late, who gets those looks? Last year Lamonte Turner took 4.3 threes per game while he played, and Jordan Bowden took 5.5. That’s a big chunk of the puzzle. Among returning players, Santiago Vescovi took 5.3, but that number leans a little to his initial minutes. Yves Pons took 2.8, and Josiah James took just over three.

If Vescovi is playing more of the true point guard role this year, how many does he shoot? What about the freshmen? What about Victor Bailey, rumored to be the best shooter on this team the moment he stepped foot in Knoxville?

There is no warm-up, and the outcomes will weigh more heavily in the final analysis than usual. It’s a big game, right away.

And we’re so happy to see you.

6:00 PM ET Tuesday, online at SEC Network+.

Go Vols.

The answer is, in some way, “Ask me after I’ve seen the freshmen.” Fair enough, and we’ll get our chances in just ten days. The Vols host Charlotte (16-13, 10-8 Conference USA last year) next Wednesday, then run it back with VCU on Friday. After that (still unofficially), it’s #1 Gonzaga in Indianapolis on Wednesday, December 2. So yeah, check back with us.

But in the preseason, we can still place our bets. Coming in at 12th in the initial AP poll gives this team the seventh-highest start in program history, with six others tightly packed between sixth and tenth. Via the media guide: considering the Vols have only been ranked in the preseason poll 15 times in their history, any number next to the logo is a good sign.

The projections we like most, of course, come via Ken Pomeroy. Something we’ve reference recently in football is a piece we did back in May, comparing Tennessee’s last 15 years in SP+ data and grouping those seasons into tiers. It helped frame the Vols’ 2020 preseason rating in context with the 2009, 2012, and 2016 seasons. As we called at at the time, the “We have a chance to win this game,” tier.

Obviously, preseason projections don’t mean the whole world. But it’s a helpful frame of reference coming into a year, most especially as a check on the ceiling and the floor.

Here’s the last 20 years of Tennessee Basketball in KenPom, from Buzz Peterson to Rick Barnes, placed in tiers. Where does this year’s team fall?

The Current Peak

• 2019: 26.24 (points better than the average team in 100 possessions)

No surprise, KenPom loved the Vols two years ago. The Grant Williams/Admiral Schofield squad that hit number one for a month and almost earned a one seed in the NCAA Tournament is the program’s clear high water mark in the last 20 years, and possibly ever. 2019 was also a year full of incredible college basketball teams: the Vols finished 10th in KenPom that season, but their 26.24 mark would’ve made them the fourth best team in basketball last year if/when the NCAA Tournament began.

The Fully Capable

• 2014: 23.69
• 2018: 22.27
• 2008: 22.17

Before 2019, Tennessee’s KenPom throne was actually owned by Cuonzo Martin’s last team, which took a 21-12 record to Dayton and almost made the Elite Eight. The 2018 Vols, in hindsight, may have had the clearest path to the Final Four before getting Sister Jeaned in round two. And the 2008 Vols ran into the opposite problem in a nightmare matchup with Louisville in the Sweet 16. Still, all three of these squads had real opportunities to make what would’ve been the program’s first Final Four.

The Dangerous

• 2021: 20.00 (preseason)
• 2006: 19.44
• 2010: 18.50
• 2007: 18.29

We find the 2021 Vols here, underdogs only to those four Vol squads ahead of them, and still in excellent company. Bruce Pearl’s first team in 2006 earned a two seed, and his second was one possession from the Elite Eight against Greg Oden. His fourth team got there through Ohio State and was one possession from the Final Four as a six seed. These three Pearl teams may not have had the night-in, night-out ceiling of the ones ahead of them on this list, but felt like they could beat anyone and almost did. The 2010 team in particular was playing some of the most complete basketball in its home stretch that any Tennessee team has played. If the freshmen merely meet expectations, you’re going to like keeping this kind of company in 2021.

The Unnecessary Defense of Bruce Pearl

• 2009: 16.48

In years ten thousand times simpler than now, it was one of our favorite blog debates: “Was the 2009 season a success?” A year after hitting number one, the Vols rebuilt or reloaded, depending on who you ask, still won the SEC East, and finished 21-13, losing at the buzzer in an 8/9 game to Oklahoma State. They shot too many threes. But they parlayed that season into an Elite Eight run the following year. To this day, it’s hard to group 2009 with any other Vol season, a unique year and bridge between two of our favorites.

The Bubble (but probably the NIT)

• 2002: 12.67
• 2017: 12.62
• 2011: 12.41
• 2012: 11.38
• 2003: 10.99
• 2020: 10.80
• 2013: 10.47

Once Lamonte Turner went down, last year’s team found itself in varying degrees of this tier: Buzz Peterson’s first two teams, Bruce Pearl’s last team, Cuonzo Martin’s first two teams, and Rick Barnes’ second team. All of them chased the bubble, but only Pearl’s last squad made it, and was promptly routed by Michigan in an 8/9 game in 2011. We know this kind of season well from Cuonzo’s tenure, and re-lived it briefly in 2017 before the Vols couldn’t finish off a mid-to-late-January hot streak.

That’s okay, we’re a football school

• 2005: 8.89
• 2016: 7.31
• 2004: 7.30
• 2015: 7.24

Nothing to see here these days: Buzz Peterson’s last two seasons, and the transition years between Donnie Tyndall and Rick Barnes.

Expectations are high for 2021, and rightfully so. Credit the 2018-19 teams for laying not just a foundation, but building on it higher than any Tennessee team has gone before. Whether this team can reach those heights or not in the regular season, everything is about getting to your best basketball in March, and giving yourself the best possible path through the bracket. Tennessee enters the season with plenty of promise, and it should be incredibly exciting to see just how high they can climb from there.

In a normal year, we’d turn our eyes to basketball the week the football Vols played their November non-conference cupcake. No such delicacies are available this year, but an unexpected bye week provides plenty of opportunity. And it’s a welcome opportunity at that, given the gap between the programs at the moment.

But it’s a good moment for basketball, which returns across the land a dozen days from now. The Vols will open with a Wednesday/Friday tilt against Charlotte and VCU, and though it hasn’t been officially announced yet, we expect the third game of the season to feature Tennessee against #1 Gonzaga in Indianapolis on December 2.

And oh yes, we’ve got numbers to go with names. The Vols are 12th in the AP Poll, 20th in preseason KenPom, and the preseason favorites in the SEC in the media poll.

With the schedule, you’ll get some answers right away, and some meaningful glimpses of Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer. Perhaps Tennessee’s ultimate ceiling depends on the individual ceilings of those two. But between now and March, what are the most important ways the Vols can improve?

Bench Minutes (280th nationally last year)

We begin where we ended last time: the last piece we wrote on the Vols before the pandemic was on Tennessee’s workload, the biggest obstacle between the Vols and an SEC Tournament run. Last season Jordan Bowden played more minutes (34.4 per game) than any Vol other than Josh Richardson in the last 15 years. Yves Pons (33.9) played more than any other Vol in the last 15 years after Richardson, Bowden, and Kevin Punter, and more than any other non-guard since Ron Slay in 2003. And both Santiago Vescovi and Josiah James played right at 30 minutes per game; most freshmen at Tennessee never play more than 25.

If the Vols are healthy, I’d anticipate the opposite problem this year.

Fulkerson, Pons, Vescovi, and James are of course all back. Stud freshmen Keon Johnson, Jaden Springer, and Corey Walker join transfers E.J. Anosike and Victor Bailey as newcomers. That’s nine before you even get to last year’s bench: Olivier Nkamhoua, Davonte Gaines, Uros Plavsic and Drew Pember all got their feet in varying degrees of the fire last season.

Chemistry matters, and Barnes will need to find the right formulas. But these Vols shouldn’t have any problem with workload; none of Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament teams under Pearl, Cuonzo, or Barnes featured anyone playing more than 33 minutes per game.

Turnovers (280th last year)

Two great Tennessee basketball stories that were overshadowed by the virus last season: the win at Rupp, just eight days before the pandemic was declared, and the journey of Santiago Vescovi.

We should’ve learned from football by now to never just assume improvement. But how would Vescovi not be better at ball security after the way he arrived last season and was immediately thrown into the fire? After nine turnovers in his debut and 21 in his first three games, he did settle in somewhat, though struggled with pressure from Arkansas and Auburn (five turnovers each) down the stretch. Meanwhile fellow freshman Josiah James turned it over less, but had worse timing: six turnovers at Kansas, four in the crushing home loss to Texas A&M that followed, six in the blown opportunity at Auburn, four more against the Tigers in the home finale.

If the Vols can carve out more defined roles for both of them, it will help tremendously. We’ll then have to see how the new freshmen handle this part of the journey, but with more depth and no surprise departure from the starting point guard a third of the way into the season, the Vols should automatically be better here.

Offensive Rebounds Allowed (279th)

If there’s one area Rick Barnes’ teams seem to be consistently chasing, it’s this. Tennessee hasn’t truly been good at keeping the opponent off the offensive glass since Jarnell Stokes was around. But last year it was especially costly against specific opponents: Auburn hit the glass on 47.4% of its misses during their comeback on the Plains last year, and grabbed another 41.4% in Knoxville. The Tigers used turnovers and offensive rebounds to take away so many would-be possessions from the Vols. Texas A&M pulled off the rare feat of getting more than half of their misses, running that number up to 57.5%. The Vols went 11-2 when holding their opponents to 28% or less on the offensive glass, losing only to Florida State and Wisconsin. But it was a struggle when teams got more opportunities.

One solution this season: E.J. Anosike, a 6’7″, 245 lbs transfer from Sacred Heart who was just outside the Top 100 nationally in defensive rebounding percentage, and 32nd nationally in getting his own team’s misses. By percentage, Josiah James was Tennessee’s best defensive rebounder last year. Tennessee’s rim protection can be strong with Pons and perhaps an improved Uros Plavsic. But the Vols clearly needed some help cleaning things up after the fact, and with Anosike in the lineup could even play Pons at the three. There are already a pair of national championship rings in the Anosike family from this fine institution…

Three-Point Shooting (277th)

Statistically, the Vols were hurt here by Lamonte Turner’s shoulder (11-of-47), and then his absence. Jordan Bowden never saw the same looks he was accustomed to, and his averages of 39.5% and 37% the previous two seasons plummeted to 28.7%. That left Josiah James (36.7%) and Santiago Vescovi (36%) as Tennessee’s best shooters from deep, with Yves Pons checking in at 34.9%.

We saw a handful of would-be at-large teams struggle more than usual from the arc last season – Virginia shot 30.3%, Auburn 30.6% – but Tennessee’s 31.3% was the program’s worst since Bruce Pearl’s final season at 30%. Despite the struggles from deep, the Vols still generally ran efficient offense when they weren’t turning it over, finishing fourth in the nation in assist percentage. Some of this season’s offense will depend on the ability of the new guys to get their own shot. But if the Vols continue to play through John Fulkerson, they should continue to get decent-or-better looks elsewhere. Tennessee’s ability to put different lineups on the floor and keep all of them fresh should create plenty of opportunities for good shot selection this year…I’m curious to see who’s going to step up and knock them down.