When the Vols put it on Kansas Saturday evening, one of my first thoughts was, “Man, when’s the last time we blew out a good team like this?” When the name of the front of the jersey says KANSAS, it feels like it’s worth a little more. But the answer to that question is probably, “A month ago.”
Tennessee now has a pair of Top 15 wins and a pair of Top 15 blowouts: 73-53 over #12 Missouri on December 30, 80-61 over #15 Kansas on January 30. So if it’s happened twice in 30 days, it must happen all the time right?
Nope.
The 2019 Vols did put it on #4 Kentucky in Knoxville by 19 after they had it done to them in Lexington by 17. Going back to what we think of as Tennessee’s current run of basketball success (Pearl-Barnes), how many times have the Vols beaten a Top 15 opponent by 15+ points in those last 15 years?
In flipping through the media guide, it’s those three games in the last three years, and only once more…which also involved Rick Barnes! In Bruce Pearl’s first season, the Vols went to #6 Texas and shockingly won by 17.
And that’s it. That’s the list.
15+ point wins over Top 15 teams in the last 15 years
2006: Tennessee 95 #6 Texas 78
2019: #7 Tennessee 71 #4 Kentucky 52
2021: #7 Tennessee 73 #12 Missouri 53
2021: #18 Tennessee 80 #15 Kansas 61
Before Pearl’s stunning victory in Austin, you have to go back to Jerry Green’s 2000 SEC Championship team blowing out #7 Auburn by 29. Before then, the next one I can find is from 1982.
The performance in Gainesville made us feel the floor a little bit, for sure. But those two wins over Kansas and Missouri are fairly high ceilings. I still think Kansas was a bit underrated coming in, victimized by a Big 12 schedule we’re used to them dominating. And while some may have written off Missouri after the game in Columbia, their performance in Knoxville (and otherwise) since then has kept them in the national conversation. There are, in fact, a quartet of SEC teams in today’s AP poll: #10 Alabama, #11 Tennessee, #18 Missouri, and #22 Florida. That means more opportunities to figure out what the Vols are made of in a conference that’s solidifying itself in the bracket.
Long way to go this year, and maybe another pendulum swing or two. But Tennessee’s best this year has been up there with just about anything we’ve seen before, and credit Rick Barnes for getting the best out of his teams against the best competition.
Whatever your experience of the last week or six weeks of uncertainty with Tennessee football, and the smidge of uncertainty that crept into this basketball team in losses to Florida and Missouri…this, tonight, was (Fulmerized) certain.
Josiah-Jordan James hit a three at the 12:53 mark of the first half to give the Vols a 17-8 lead, a shot in the arm for Tennessee’s offense and its confidence. Kansas got it back to six with six minutes to play in the first half, then didn’t make another shot until the Vols turned it over in the final seconds before the break.
The defense is what we expect when Yves Pons is on the floor. Baylor played Bruce Pearl earlier today, which meant they lost their status as KenPom’s best defense even before the Vols tipped off tonight. Kansas was cold from three early, and that helped. But they also seemed extraordinarily aware of Pons, even though he didn’t block a single shot. There were no good looks available, and they didn’t force any bad ones at the rim.
The defense is what we expect. The offense is what we wanted. And oh baby, it delivered.
In those last six minutes of the first half, Tennessee went to the well:
In those six minutes, Tennessee shot 7-of-10 against Kansas – 10th in KenPom defense coming in – and turned a six point game into 16.
To start the second half, Kansas went right in to David McCormack, who cut it to 12. Right back to the well:
Pons and-one
Pons two
Keon two
Springer two free throws
Fulkerson two
Fulkerson, feeling it, two more
Then Victor Bailey, who came into the game taking more shots than anyone in orange, took his first. A three. He splashed it, and suddenly the Vols were up 21. Then he made five straight free throws for good measure.
A Kansas run never came. The Vols led by as many as 26 and won by 19. Yep.
Defensively, the thing Tennessee is best at is forcing turnovers and blocking shots. Tonight: one block (a spectacular one from Josiah), and only seven Kansas turnovers. Yet the Jayhawks shot just 37.7% from the floor, 6-of-24 from the arc, and only grabbed five offensive rebounds on all those misses. A sterling performance from an already-elite defense, now the best in the land in KenPom.
Offensively, mercy.
The hope that Tennessee’s good shots from good ball movement would just start falling came partially true tonight: 52.8% from the floor, a disciplined 8-of-13 from the arc, helped along by a tidy 16-of-17 from the line.
But it was who took those shots that stood out most:
Pons 7-of-9, 17 points in 23 minutes
Fulkerson 5-of-8, 11 points
Keon 3-of-8, 8 points
Springer 3-of-7, 13 points (7-of-7 at the line)
And the Vols made a shift in their rotation, going solely with Olivier Nkamhoua as the backup post option/eighth man, and giving him a green light. He only went 2-of-7 and had four fouls in 15 minutes, but it felt like there was affirmation in it from the coaching staff: if you’re going to play Nkamhoua, let him play.
We wondered what would happen if the Vols started and played the freshmen more. Small sample size, but good opponent, and the returns were excellent.
The hill remains steep: at Ole Miss Tuesday, at Rupp, a Florida team we already knew was dangerous that looked even more so today, then at LSU. The resume will be written over these next two weeks.
But the Vols made a statement tonight, and did so in such a way that makes you believe this offense has plenty left to give.
We’ll get to that. For now, at the end of this crazy set of weeks in the athletic department…I believe we’ll take every bit of this W tonight.
The Cuonzo Maritn school of, “We didn’t make shots,” is still in session in Knoxville. The Vols continue to have the second-best defense in the nation via KenPom, but the offense has plummeted in the last three games, two of them losses, one of them to Cuonzo’s current employer. In that span the Vols dropped to the three line in yesterday’s Bracket Matrix, and are a four in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. It’s been true all year that Gonzaga and Baylor are clearly the best two teams in the land. That means there’s great value in getting a three seed or higher, because you guarantee you’re not running into one of those teams in the Sweet 16. The goal remains to get your best basketball by March, and give yourself the easiest possible path through the bracket along the way. So what does Tennessee’s best basketball look like right now?
We’ll get back to Jaden Springer in a moment, but in general, what’s gone most wrong for the Vols in conference play is, of course, that they’re not making shots – 11th in the SEC in effective field goal percentage, just 29.9% from the arc – and they get no second chances, ranking dead last in offensive rebounding. Tennessee still leads the league in assist rate, getting the most made baskets off of assists. But with lineups still in flux and trending toward more minutes for the five star freshmen, it’ll be interesting to see if that number rises as the Vols make more of those good looks, or falls because the freshmen utilize their skills to get more on their own.
Per minute, Jaden Springer has been Tennessee’s best offensive player all season, now at 19.4 points per game per 40 minutes. Victor Bailey’s volume shooting is second in points per minute, with Keon Johnson third (16.4). And right behind those three guards is John Fulkerson, who still possesses good numbers offensively and is excellent at drawing fouls…but against Mississippi State, he took three shots and three free throws in 29 minutes. The Vols still used their defense to get exactly the kind of win they’ll still need some nights in this league. But the Vols still believe there’s more out there from Fulkerson.
That brings us to Kansas, who got off to an 8-1 start with their only loss to Gonzaga, no shame there. Then they were blown out 84-59 by Texas on their home floor, took two games from TCU, and otherwise went into the Big 12 meat grinder: beat Oklahoma by four, went 0-3 on a road trip at Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Oklahoma.
The Big 12 has lost some of its shine, with the Big Ten, at least in KenPom, now laying claim to best conference in the land status. Alabama and Tennessee are the only two SEC teams in the KenPom Top 20. The Big 12 has six. As such, there are significant opportunities for the league tomorrow:
#9 Alabama at #24 Oklahoma – 12:00 PM – ESPN
Florida at #11 West Virginia – 2:00 PM – ESPN
#10 Texas Tech at LSU – 2:00 PM – ESPN2
Auburn at #2 Baylor – 4:00 PM – ESPN
Arkansas at Oklahoma State – 4:00 PM – ESPN2
#15 Kansas at #18 Tennessee – 6:00 PM – ESPN
#5 Texas at Kentucky – 8:00 PM – ESPN
That’s a great slate of basketball, one with meaningful opportunities not just for the Tide and Vols at the top, but the handful of SEC teams trying to play their way up the seed line, plus relative season-making opportunities for Auburn and Kentucky squads that won’t make the tournament.
Monday is February. This season will get short in a hurry, and this upcoming stretch for Tennessee – Kansas, at Ole Miss, at Kentucky, Florida, at LSU – will speak loudest on our resume. I do believe there’s a game out there where Tennessee knocks down a bunch of these open looks and we win by more than we were anticipating. I’m not sure if Kansas will be that game, but in a Top 20 showdown with a national power, you take any victory any how. If it’s the defensive slugfest from earlier this week, great.
But if the Vols are trending more toward the freshmen into the teeth of this schedule, this will absolutely be an interesting three weeks. Johnson and Springer haven’t played a bunch on the floor at the same time, in part due to Springer’s ankle. Will the Vols lean on Vescovi, Johnson, Springer, Fulkerson, and Pons? Will they throw Josiah-Jordan James into that mix instead of Vescovi and play a super-talented and athletic perimeter game? What’s happening with Fulkerson in these lineup shifts, especially when dealing with 6’10” David McCormack?
The big picture questions with lineups, freshmen, and offensive identity are still unfolding, and now the toughest part of Tennessee’s schedule will demand answers. This is a big game at the outset of a big three weeks for this team. I’m excited to see what comes next.
We all want to win. And we’d like to win as fast as possible, please.
The most important word in that sentence is win. You don’t do that, nothing else will matter. But I do believe the healthiest word in that sentence is possible.
The depths of last Monday’s press conference and the looming shadow of violations made the whiplash all the more attractive when Tennessee hired Danny White. This is a great hire! Maybe he’ll get us out of this fast!
And it seems like the Vols gave that a real go. James Franklin is one of the best coaches in the country, and Tennessee seems to have made a run at him. He said no. I get how being associated, even loosely, with someone like Franklin can also raise expectations.
But the reality of who Tennessee is right now – the reality of what is possible at the moment – meant the Vols were always most likely to hire from a less proven tier.
Tennessee’s situation still feels most like exile. And not because they hired Josh Heupel today, but because of everything that led up to today, which is now everything Heupel and White (Josh and Danny?) will take responsibility for moving forward.
Patience was the best play last Monday, it swiftly faced temptation during this coaching search, and patience remains the best play today. Do not believe the prophets when they tell you this could’ve all been over soon. You do what you want, but I wouldn’t recommend spending any more energy on Lane Kiffin, other than wanting to beat him by a million when we play Ole Miss in the fall.
Heupel is what was possible, and perhaps the best of what was possible. Maybe if we don’t hire UCF’s AD, we don’t get a coach with as good a resume as his. The fact that White trusted him to work together again is good news to me. Either way, patience is still the best way out of exile. But this way, we might have a little more fun along the way.
The 2017 team went 4-0 in one possession games. The 2018 team went 1-1 – best way to win close games is not to play them – with the lone loss to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl after McKenzie Milton got hurt. The 2019 team went 1-3. But play for play, UCF improved from 2017 to 2018 to 2019.
And offensively:
Team
Year
Offensive SP+
Mizzou
2016
54th
Mizzou
2017
24th
UCF
2018
11th
UCF
2019
14th
UCF
2020
12th
Tennessee’s previous hires, you’ll remember, came to us as:
Defensive coordinator, Alabama
23-14 at Cincinnati, 27-13 Central Michigan
17-20 at Louisiana Tech
Fired after going 5-15 with the Raiders; Offensive coordinator, USC
Offensive coordinator, Tennessee
If you’d like to debate the resumes of Butch Jones vs Josh Heupel, we can. In the above SP+ piece, we noted how Jones was a proven winner but didn’t improve what he inherited. It’s impossible, of course, to improve on the number of losses Heupel inherited from Scott Frost’s final year. But in SP+, he succeeded. I’ve never met him, but I wonder if there’s a part of anyone who might’ve followed Frost after 2017 that might want to make their own name in a different situation, to prove themselves outside of that shadow. If so, the desire to prove yourself is a good fit at a program looking to do the same.
You can make a respectable argument that Josh Heupel is the most proven collegiate head coach the Vols have hired since Johnny Majors. Heupel wouldn’t have been the only candidate to check that box, and being better than everything since Phillip Fulmer isn’t the ultimate goal. But at a time when this job might be harder than ever, it is where you start. It’s what is possible today.
Words matter. Danny White is right about that. What we say, what we tweet, what we put out there…it all matters. I don’t know if Josh Heupel will win at Tennessee or not. But even and especially in exile, seek the welfare of the city.
We can do that honestly. When Jeremy Pruitt was hired, we appreciated the eye towards the ceiling and said, “In the short-term, Pruitt is as good as Tennessee and Fulmer had any right to do after this crazy set of days.” When Butch Jones was hired, we noted how he was the lowest vote getter on our fan poll but thought fans would embrace him given time (and initially, he recruited his way into a big ol’ hug by March). When Derek Dooley was hired, I wrote about basketball.
But in each case, and now this one, I still believe the way we communicate matters. The healthiest way to do that for Tennessee is to embrace the reality of our situation, what was possible in this hire today, and what this hire might make possible from here.
For now, patience. Let’s see where it goes. And whatever it’s worth, even at the end of all these years of coaching searches, I find myself excited about those possibilities.
If you were looking for a pick-me-up this week with all the football drama, the basketball trip to Gainesville was not it. Maybe fewer of us were looking with all the football stuff going on. Either way, the Vols get another shot against a good team tomorrow night, as Missouri comes to Knoxville for the return match.
I wouldn’t expect another 20-point blowout; both Missouri and Tennessee were woeful at the free throw line the first time, so the game could go lots of different ways. And we’re unsure about the status of Jaden Springer, who continues to be Tennessee’s most productive option offensively on a per-minute basis.
What went wrong in Gainesville was similar to what went wrong against Alabama from a lineup perspective: Springer was hurt and Pons got two fouls early. In terms of efficiency, those are Tennessee’s best players on offense and defense. Unlike the battle with the Tide, the Vols never got back within striking distance in the second half against the Gators.
Tennessee’s defense is still second in the nation. When Pons is on the floor, it’s elite. I’m not worried about that part.
But Tennessee’s offense plummeted to 54th nationally in KenPom. It’s not a death sentence – the 2010 Elite Eight Vols finished 75th, though they played much of the SEC calendar at less than full strength – but it needs to improve if the Vols are going to get back into the conversation for the bracket’s top line. In that regard, the Vols were passed by Alabama in the span of about four hours Tuesday night: a 26-point loss in Gainesville followed by a 30-point win for Bama in Baton Rouge, and now the Tide are the SEC’s best team by any metric you’d like. And because of some scheduling advantages the rest of the way home, KenPom projects the Tide to finish a blistering 16-2 in league play, with the Vols at 13-5. We’ll see about all of that, but if you want to have that conversation, Tennessee needs to figure out its offense.
The four factor numbers aren’t bad: 21st in turnovers, 50th in offensive rebounding percentage, 52nd in free throw rate. Much of Tennessee’s struggle has been the old Cuonzo Martin frustration: “We didn’t make shots.”
Tennessee’s offense is still based in getting good shots through good ball movement. It’s not as white-hot in this department as it’s been the last three years; the Vols were fourth nationally in assist rate last season, it’s not purely a product of having Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield on your team. Tennessee is currently 47th nationally in that stat, but just 156th in effective field goal percentage. Hard to get assists when the shots won’t fall.
So if we like most of the looks, but want to do more than just hope for the law of averages, how can Tennessee get their most productive scorers more opportunities?
Among the top seven players, who takes the most shots for Tennessee?
Player
Pct. of Shots
Bailey
16.2%
Fulkerson
13.8%
Vescovi
12.9%
Pons
12.6%
Johnson
12.0%
James
11.2%
Springer
10.7%
Victor Bailey had something straight out of his nightmares against Florida: 1-of-10 in the first half, 1-of-12 overall, 0-of-6 from three, 2-of-6 at the line, and five turnovers. Gross.
Bailey’s turnovers and missed free throws were unusual, he’s been good in both departments this season. Do the Vols want him taking more shots than anyone else?
This happens in part because he’ll score from inside and outside the arc, and can be used in different ways more than John Fulkerson. And it may be happening because some of the perimeter alternatives are freshmen who may not have or feel the greenest of lights; Keon Johnson tried to assert himself early in the second half and it worked well in that initial spurt.
But in particular from three, Bailey’s volume shooting hasn’t helped the Vols: he’s currently the fourth-best three-point shooter on the team (behind Springer’s small sample size, Vescovi, and James), but he takes the second-most threes, trailing only Vescovi. Vescovi is 26-of-66 (39.4%) on the year. Bailey is 17-of-55 (30.4%).
Tennessee needs Springer to play, obviously. And so far, they really only want Vescovi to shoot threes and distribute, even off penetration: he’s 10-of-24 inside the arc. If you’re looking for better scoring inside the arc, that’s the same old answer: John Fulkerson.
Fulkerson is the team’s best scorer from two at 54.7%. He doesn’t turn it over very often when he gets it. And he gets to the free throw line (84th nationally) and knocks them down once there (77.8%). As Rick Barnes loves to point out, the Vols need more from Fulkerson. He steadied their ship when the waters got bumpy last year, and turned in an elite performance at Rupp Arena. It’s a different kind of bumpy early this season, with so many parts producing an offense that needs to get better. But a huge piece of that puzzle on this team will always be John Fulkerson from two.
Get Springer healthy. Have a more even distribution of who’s taking your threes. Get Fulkerson going from two. And maybe those averages will start feeling a little more friendly.
I don’t know who Tennessee is going to hire. We’ve had enough experience at this to know there are no guarantees, which makes it less sensible to passionately push for one candidate over another. And hey, the powers that be at Tennessee – which now includes new athletic director Danny White – may have already made some moves, and eliminated half of this list or vetted guys who aren’t even on it. Either way, I’m hopeful this exercise can be of use to us in being better at evaluating what makes a good coach and, in particular, how we define success at Tennessee.
I continue to be drawn to this chart, which we used in a piece I wrote a couple days before the Texas A&M game, when the conversation on Jeremy Pruitt was only about wins and losses and not recruiting violations:
Thoughts about hiring coaches:
– Never hire a coach who didn't improve their prev. program (top left is empty) – Improving a program may not be repeatable (bottom right is as crowded as top right)
[Improvement] = [Avg. SP+ under coach] – [Program's 3-Year SP+ Avg. Before Coach] pic.twitter.com/bv6QhIhUGO
As we said a month ago: For every coach who turned mid-to-low-major success into major success – Matt Campbell, James Franklin, Dan Mullen – there are coaches who aced level one but struggled with level two: Scott Frost, Justin Fuente, Charlie Strong. You never know.
The chart also helps understand the value of Bill Connelly’s SP+ in measuring the outcome of each play instead of each game. It’s one of our favorite metrics for that reason, and the way it can help you see the differences between similar records.
For instance, you’ll notice Jeff Brohm out in front in the top right quadrant for his work at Western Kentucky and Purdue, even though Purdue is 19-25 under his watch. That’s in part because Purdue was 9-39 in Darrell Hazell’s four years preceding him. But it’s also how those games were lost and won: Hazell’s teams lost 23 games by at least three possessions in his four years. Brohm’s teams have lost seven in his four years.
Here’s the transition from Hazell to Brohm at Purdue using the chart’s metric: average SP+ of the previous coach’s final three seasons and the average SP+ of the current coach:
Jeff Brohm, Purdue
Coach
Year
Record
SP+
Avg SP+
Hazell
2014
3-9
-6.2
2015
2-10
-7.4
2016
3-9
-11
-8.2
Brohm
2017
7-6
5.8
2018
6-7
6.5
2019
4-8
-0.7
2020
2-4
6.1
4.4 (+12.6)
I’m not advocating Tennessee hire Jeff Brohm; we’ve already been down that road once. Maybe fans at Purdue are now asking if he can get them from Point B to Point C. He’s just an example of how growing a program can look.
(You’ll also note in that chart that Hugh Freeze is all over the top right quadrant, for what he’s done from Arkansas State to Ole Miss and now Liberty. Freeze is clearly a great coach on Saturdays. Of course, 27 of those wins at Ole Miss were vacated, and everything suggests Freeze will not be a candidate at Tennessee while the Vols are under their own investigation. So we’ll simply acknowledge all of that here and move on.)
'This isn’t the place to try somebody out. This time, we’re going to find proven winners.'
In interview w/ @knoxnews, UT System President Randy Boyd and Chancellor Donde Plowman outline qualities they're seeking in next AD and football coach.
Randy Boyd’s comments suggest the Vols will not hire an assistant coach (so I’m unsure what this means for viewing Kevin Steele as the safety net), and want a proven winner. One thing to note here, as we’ve had experience with it: “proven winner” should mean more than, “won games after inheriting a good situation.” We played that game with Butch Jones, who you’ll notice in the top left quadrant after following Brian Kelly twice:
Butch Jones, Cincinnati
Coach
Year
Record
SP+
Avg SP+
Kelly
2007
10-3
17.5
2008
11-3
8.6
2009
12-0
18.2
14.8
Jones
2010
4-8
2.5
2011
10-3
12.8
2012
9-3
11.1
8.8 (-6.0)
It wasn’t just that Jones was weighed down by his 4-8 transition year. The best he accomplished at Cincinnati was significantly lower than the ceiling he inherited.
What will Tennessee’s new coach inherit? Here’s the Vols in SP+ since Phillip Fulmer’s last three years:
While Jeremy Pruitt’s final season wasn’t as bad as Butch Jones’ final season, Tennessee’s inability to even approach the peaks under Jones or late-stage Fulmer stand out. And, of course, the new guy seems likely to inherit some violations and a depleted roster through the transfer portal, though those losses could be somewhat offset by gains the same way.
In short, this has been going the wrong way for a long time. Who is best suited to get it moving forward?
If we’re looking for “proven winners”, here’s a good template to start with:
Gus Malzahn, Auburn
Coach
Year
Record
SP+
Avg SP+
Chizik
2010
14-0
26.5
2011
8-5
9
2012
3-9
4.8
13.4
Malzahn
2013
12-2
25.2
2014
8-5
24.2
2015
7-6
14.6
2016
8-5
15.3
2017
10-4
24.7
2018
8-5
23.6
2019
9-4
21
2020
6-4
11.4
20 (+6.6)
Malzahn, of course, gets some of that 2010 action as well; the 2020 team also has the Citrus Bowl loss to Northwestern on its resume that Malzahn wasn’t part of. One thing I like about SP+ here: you’ll note there’s not much that separates the 2013 almost-national-champions from the 8-5 finish the following year. The latter group wrecked #15 LSU by 34 and beat #4 Ole Miss, but lost to four Top 17 teams plus #25 Texas A&M by three. Malzahn’s teams did what I think you can realistically ask for, non-Bama division in this league: be in the hunt. The Tigers went to Atlanta ranked #2 in 2017, and spent time in the Top 10 in every one of Malzahn’s seasons.
Danny White’s hiring history doesn’t necessarily suggest a retread, but Malzahn’s history at Auburn would be in line with the kind of success we’d hope for from a good fit at Tennessee.
Let’s look at Danny White’s hires:
Lance Leipold, Buffalo
Coach
Year
Record
SP+
Avg SP+
Quinn
2012
4-8
-16.3
2013
8-5
-9
2014
5-6
-7.7
-11
Leipold
2015
5-7
-10.3
2016
2-10
-18.8
2017
6-6
-11.2
2018
10-4
-1.1
2019
8-5
-2
2020
6-1
5.3
-6.4 (+4.6)
Leipold came to Buffalo from Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he won the Division III championship six times in eight years. At Buffalo, the rebuild was the long game: his second team was one of the worst in college football, and his third was no better than his first. But since then, the Bulls have entered uncharted territory for their program: a pair of division titles, their first in ten years, and a Top 25 finish this season.
Scott Frost & Josh Heupel, UCF
Coach
Year
Record
SP+
Avg SP+
O’Leary
2013
12-1
12.3
2014
9-4
5.7
2015
0-12
-15.5
0.8
Frost
2016
6-7
-2.2
2017
13-0
14.1
6 (+5.2)
Heupel
2018
12-1
16.5
2019
10-3
19.1
2020
6-4
10.9
15.5 (+9.5)
The wild swing in 2015 throws some of the balance off here, to be sure. It’s also interesting to note that Heupel’s first team in 2018, which went undefeated before losing to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl, ranked higher than Frost’s final team in 2017, which went undefeated and beat Auburn in the Peach Bowl. And play-for-play, the best of the bunch was Heupel’s 2019 team, which lost at Pittsburgh by one, at Cincinnati by three, and at Tulsa by three. Along the way they busted up Lane Kiffin’s 11-3 FAU team 48-14, and beat Stanford 45-27. Should the Vols end up going with Heupel, we’ll make that point a lot. This year’s team beat Georgia Tech 49-21 in the opener, lost to Tulsa by eight and at Memphis by one, then lost to Cincinnati 36-33 and BYU in the bowl game.
So we know Danny White has experience with out-of-the-box hires; none of those three had previous FBS head coaching experience. We’ll see how that translates on the bigger stage in Knoxville.
On our podcast before White was hired, we started with these two names:
Coastal isn’t the best fit for this experiment: for one, they just joined the FBS level in 2017, then Chadwell took over for an interim season that same year, so there’s only Moglia’s 2018 campaign to compare it to. Nevertheless, Chadwell’s team improved not only this season, but in 2019 as well, even though the record didn’t show it. Chadwell might be the next big thing, it’s just a much smaller sample size.
Again, no guarantees once you get to level two, but these are all guys who’ve aced level one.
If the Vols go (or are forced to go) more of the obvious rebuild route:
Bill Clark, UAB
Coach
Year
Record
SP+
Avg SP+
Callaway
2011
3-9
-19.2
McGee
2012
3-9
-11.1
2013
2-10
-20.8
-17
Clark
2014
6-6
-4.2
2017
8-5
-15.5
2018
11-3
-0.3
2019
9-5
-1.4
2020
6-3
6.7
-2.9 (+14.1)
Clark, as you know, presided over the return of UAB’s program after it was shut down in 2015. His first team obviously carried some of that weight, but they were masterful in close games and earned bowl eligibility. It’s been all climb from there, including just a 24-20 loss to Louisiana, a double overtime loss to Louisiana Tech, and a 31-14 defeat to Miami this year. If the Vols hire Clark, perhaps it would help solidify the scope of this rebuild in all of our minds.
Let’s get this one on the board too:
Lane Kiffin
Coach
Year
Record
SP+
Avg SP+
Fulmer
2006
9-4
18.9
2007
10-4
20.2
2008
5-7
12
17
Kiffin
2009
7-6
16.2
16.2 (-0.8)
Coach
Year
Record
SP+
Avg SP+
Carroll
2007
11-2
32
2008
12-1
37
2009
9-4
16.6
28.5
Kiffin
2010
8-5
15.2
2011
9-4
24.7
2012
7-6
21.9
2013
10-4
22.5
21.1 (-7.4)
Coach
Year
Record
SP+
Avg SP+
Partridge
2014
3-9
-10.4
2015
3-9
-9.8
2016
3-9
-14.1
-11.4
Kiffin
2017
11-3
5.1
2018
5-7
-0.8
2019
11-3
7.5
3.9 (+15.3)
Coach
Year
Record
SP+
Avg SP+
Luke
2017
6-6
11.6
2018
5-7
9.8
2019
4-8
2.9
8.1
Kiffin
2020
5-5
8.3
8.3 (+0.2)
If Kiffin actually did return to the Vols, it would be his fifth head coaching stop, six counting the Raiders. His work at Florida Atlantic was impressive, no doubt, immediately improving the Owls and earning a second 11-3 record two years later. Pete Carroll was always going to be a tough act to follow, and that’s been true for Kiffin, Sarkisian, and Helton. The job at Ole Miss (and Tennessee) is too small a sample size to know yet: in both cases, definitely better than the previous year he inherited, but not enough data to consider it an improvement on the program overall. You’d love to have seen what he did at UT or Ole Miss in year two before entrusting your program to him.
I think Kiffin would be a good hire, but it would be foolish to consider him the only good hire, or an outright better choice than many of the names above.
Sometimes you can fall a little harder than you should for a coach just because they have power five experience. Consider:
Tom Herman, Texas
Coach
Year
Record
SP+
Avg SP+
Strong
2014
6-7
9
2015
5-7
3.7
2016
5-7
10.6
7.8
Herman
2017
7-6
10.6
2018
10-4
11.3
2019
8-5
12
2020
7-3
13.5
11.9 (+4.1)
Herman certainly had a big year in 2018. But overall, each of his teams weren’t significantly better than Charlie Strong’s first and last Texas squads. They did make small steps of progress in SP+ each year, but Herman also fell into the Butch Jones close game trap, and the best way to win close games remains not to play them. A +4 change in SP+ is similar to what Lance Leipold has at Buffalo, but the difference is how much his program has grown from year one until now. Herman’s, also similar to Jones at UT, never moved as fast as the powers that be at Texas probably felt it should have.
Finally, if the Vols go as big at head coach as they went at athletic director, here are the two names we thought would never consider this job:
Matt Campbell, Iowa State
Coach
Year
Record
SP+
Avg SP+
Rhoads
2013
3-9
-3.8
2014
2-10
-7.9
2015
3-9
-0.3
-4
Campbell
2016
3-9
0.7
2017
8-5
7.5
2018
8-5
7.9
2019
7-6
12.6
2020
9-3
18.7
9.5 (+13.5)
This is Point A to Point B to Point C. The record may have suggested treading water from year three to year four, but in 2019 Iowa State lost to #19 Iowa by one, at Baylor by two, Oklahoma State by seven, and at Oklahoma by one. This year they lost to Billy Napier’s Rajun Cajuns in the opener, 31-14…then beat Oklahoma, Texas, TCU, Baylor, lost to #6 Oklahoma State by three, and blew out the rest of the conference. They almost won the Big 12 title game, then beat Oregon by 17 in the Fiesta Bowl. Tennessee has never been as bad as where Iowa State was at the end of Paul Rhoads’ tenure, but they also haven’t been as good as Iowa State was this year since 2015, and before then not since Fulmer.
Luke Fickell, Cincinnati
Coach
Year
Record
SP+
Avg SP+
Tuberville
2014
9-4
6.9
2015
7-6
5.3
2016
4-8
-3.6
2.9
Fickell
2017
4-8
-6.4
2018
11-2
5.4
2019
11-3
9.1
2020
9-1
19.9
7 (+4.1)
Fickell’s first year did not go well. Since then, Cincinnati has been a rocket ship. This year they beat Army by two touchdowns, won 42-13 at #16 SMU, beat Memphis 49-10, and almost got Georgia in the Peach Bowl. The overall growth isn’t as strong because of where the program still was two years before he arrived, and the way he struggled in year one. But if you group 2015-17 together and compare it to 2018-20, Fickell’s average SP+ jump is 13.1, on par with the best of the other major progress you can find on our list:
Coach
Avg SP+ Jump
Napier
14.7
Clark
14.1
Campbell
13.5
Chadwell
12
Heupel
9.5
Kiffin avg.
7.3
Malzahn
6.6
Leipold
4.6
Fickell
4.1
Herman
4.1
Again, those few caveats:
Chadwell’s numbers are based on the smallest, weirdest data, with Coastal just joining FBS four years ago, and him serving as an interim that first year.
Kiffin’s numbers are the average of his four jobs; his individual numbers range from 15.3 at Florida Atlantic to -7.4 at USC, with small, incomplete improvements in one year at UT and Ole Miss.
Leipold’s progress is slowest and steadiest, and continued to gain momentum into year six.
Fickell’s numbers are weighed down by a terrible first year and Tuberville still being good two years before he left.
I have no idea who Tennessee will hire. But I do think it’s more than fair to say anyone from this list would be an upgrade, and many of them – at least in SP+ – the most “proven” winner Tennessee hired in a long time.
The common denominator in conversations I’ve had with friends and family today: will we have the patience for what comes next?
Is there any other way to be?
I guess that’s always been the allure of Gruden, Freeze, Pearl’s return, and other Tennessee fairy tales: the corresponding myth of the quick fix. They’ll solve it right away!
But there is no right away here, in part because we’re not sure how deep the hole will go or which athletic director is going shopping for ladders.
Back when we were only discussing firing Jeremy Pruitt for on-field results, one of the most compelling arguments for change was the idea that the realistic candidate pool might actually work in Tennessee’s favor this time. Even when you take Hugh Freeze off the table, that list of names is still only short Steve Sarkisian at this point. The Vols didn’t miss out on any of those guys because they waited too long.
The question now becomes, how many of those guys would still say yes to this job?
In looking at all the hot boards this afternoon, it’s funny how, at least for me, my first impression is still stubbornly attached to who Tennessee was more than a dozen years ago: “This looks like our basketball hot boards!” Coastal Carolina. Louisiana. Charlotte. UAB. Buffalo. Those old false narratives – we’re Tennessee, we should aim higher and pay more – hold on with surprising strength considering their age. In reality, Tennessee’s last four hires came as fired NFL coach, Louisiana Tech, Cincinnati, and assistant at Alabama. The guy before that, another chapter coming to its end today, was an assistant at Tennessee.
For instance, if Tennessee hired Billy Napier – 28-11 overall with the Rajun Cajuns and 21-4 the last two years – he’d be the most proven candidate as a collegiate head coach the Vols hired since Johnny Majors. Butch Jones was 23-14 at Cincinnati, but only after following Brian Kelly, who went 34-6. Napier followed Mark Hudspeth, whose last three years at Louisiana went 4-8, 6-7, and 5-7.
But would Billy Napier say yes to this job right now? Would Gus Malzahn or Tom Herman?
How much of what we assume to be the list – current coaches from the Sun Belt, Conference USA, and the MAC, but all of them actually more proven winners and program builders on their own merits as head coaches than anyone we’ve hired recently – would say yes to being the head coach at Tennessee in 2021?
I love a good historical comparison, but I’m not sure there is one for where Tennessee is right now.
We also know Tennessee is one of the seven teams in the “top half” of the SEC that seem capable of recruiting at a championship level, but the Vols are seventh of those seven already, trying to beat Florida/Georgia/Bama at a lesser version of their own game. The window was open for Butch Jones but his Vols couldn’t get through, and even though Jeremy Pruitt appears to have closed the gap from purely a talent standpoint, the window of opportunity is much smaller now thanks to the success of Kirby Smart and Dan Mullen in the division.
So yeah, it’s hard to win here right now. Maybe it’s harder now than ever. And it’s about to get harder.
What do we do with all that?
For now: patience. It’s the best available choice. Maybe the only one.
You’re a grown up, of course. You can do what you want. We’re ten months into a pandemic, we know good and well people don’t have to be anything, especially patient. Patience is hard.
But failing to learn it well usually ends up worse.
When the Vols lost to Arkansas, I wrote about transitioning our metaphor from wilderness to exile, assuming the Vols wouldn’t fire Jeremy Pruitt no matter what happened the rest of this season because of the pandemic. Turns out, there are things that will make them fire him, and those things make exile much more likely, which means I believe even more in what we said then: we’re going to be here for a season. The biblical sense, not the Fall 2021 sense. This is where we live right now. And a stiff neck will not get you out any faster.
In exile, you live your life. With purpose. Build houses and live in them. Increase, do not decrease. Seek the welfare of the city.
And do not listen to the prophets who tell you this will all be over soon. Do not listen when anyone tells you so-and-so is a sure thing; we should all know better by now that’s a lie. Be careful when giving your time and energies to those whose business interests are in keeping you agitated.
How do we live in exile? Purpose. Patience.
Seek the welfare of the city. Words matter. How we communicate matters. It all matters. And I think patience will matter most in the midst of this season. Patience, paradoxically, is the healthiest way out of exile.
The Vols, we think, are back in action tomorrow against Vanderbilt. Tennessee lost a date with South Carolina on Tuesday, then lost the reshuffled trip to Nashville, but we’re hopeful we’ll see the Vols and ‘Dores in Knoxville tomorrow (6:00 PM, SEC Network). The SEC left the final Saturday of the regular season open on March 6, so there’s a chance to make up one game. We’ll see what happens.
In Tennessee’s first ten games, the Vols have faced three Tier A opponents (via KenPom) and two Tier B opponents. On the other side of the Vanderbilt game comes the season’s most important stretch: five straight weeks, ten straight games against Tier A or B competition. Tennessee’s final three games, as it stands today, are against lesser competition: the original date for the trip to Vanderbilt, a trip to Auburn, and Georgia in Knoxville. Throw in a potential make-up with South Carolina, and the Vols would finish with four straight games against teams outside the NCAA Tournament conversation (…we think. South Carolina has only played five games total, so they’ll have a ton of questions to answer upon their return to action).
But the stretch from January 19 through February 20 is where Tennessee’s fate will be decided: at Florida, Missouri, Mississippi State, Kansas, at Ole Miss, at Kentucky, Florida, at LSU, South Carolina, Kentucky.
There are two goals coming into that stretch, and the one should have a good chance to lead to the other: win the SEC outright, and earn the program’s first number one seed.
The SEC
Three years ago, when the Vols last won the league, Tennessee opened SEC play in a big game at Arkansas. The Vols lost in overtime in a contest that featured heavy referee influence, shall we say. Emotions were high, etc. Then Tennessee returned home and gave up 341234 offensive rebounds in a loss to Auburn.
The Vols, of course, figured it out: they beat Kentucky in Knoxville four days later, went 13-5, and shared the league title with…Auburn. As it turned out, Tennessee played the second-best team in the league in game two, we just didn’t know it at the time.
I point that out to say this year, the Vols opened SEC play on the road against Top 15 Missouri, and delivered an emotional result of a different kind: the 20-point win that made those two goals up there the right ones for this team. Then they returned home and lost a weird lineup game to Alabama, who hit 10-of-20 from the arc and 8-of-11 in the second half.
Turns out, Bama’s good.
The Tide followed up with a 15-point win over Florida in Tuscaloosa, and just beat Kentucky in Rupp – still worth something – by 20, which is plenty of something. Alabama is 5-0 in the SEC and now 21st nationally in KenPom. I think Tennessee played the second best team in the SEC in game two, we just didn’t know it at the time…and like 2018, we won’t get another shot at them.
KenPom projects the Vols and Tide to “split” the SEC title: Alabama at 14-4, Tennessee at 13-4, and maybe they’ll get the South Carolina game rescheduled. LSU is one game back in those projections; the Tigers and Tide do play each other twice, so some of that may sort itself out. But Alabama has the pieces and the 5-0 head start to make a serious run at the league title. And they too will make a lot of their living right now: Arkansas, at LSU, Mississippi State, Kentucky, at Oklahoma, LSU, at Missouri in their next seven games. The logic here suggests you want to be ahead of Alabama in the standings when they finish that stretch on February 6, as a trip to Fayetteville on February 24 is Alabama’s only game against a Top 60 KenPom foe in their final seven contests.
KenPom projects the Vols to go 7-3 in that ten game stretch after Vanderbilt, which would put them in range for a 13/14-and-4 finish. They’ll all count, and that goes for the chase for a one seed too.
The #1 Seed
Let’s write GONZAGA at the top of your bracket.
Baylor goes next, but the Bears are getting ready to run their own little gauntlet: at Texas Tech, Kansas, at Oklahoma State in their next three. If they run that table, put them in all caps next.
From there, the chase for the two remaining one seeds gets murkier. As was the case two years ago, a lot will depend on how the selection committee views the power of each conference: in 2019, three ACC teams were placed on the top line, while Tennessee – fresh off a huge win over Kentucky and a huge loss to Auburn in the previous 48 hours – fell to the two line. Unlike previous years where regional sites mattered, this year we should get something that far more resembles a true s-curve (with a few exceptions to keep top teams from the same conference in separate regions). So, for instance, if the goal is to avoid Gonzaga for as long as possible, you don’t want to be the last two seed or the first three seed, because that should be Gonzaga’s region.
But the surest way to stay away from the Zags until the Final Four – a place Tennessee has never been – is to earn one of the other one seeds.
In non-pandemic times, number one seeds have averaged 4.5 losses on Selection Sunday over the last four tournaments. That, of course, includes conference tournament play; Tennessee hasn’t won the SEC Tournament since 1979. So all of these projections from KenPom would be pre-conference tournament.
KenPom Projected Records
Gonzaga 23-1
Baylor 21-3
Michigan 20-4
Villanova 18-4
Tennessee 19-5
Iowa 20-6
Texas 19-6
Creighton 19-6
I’d also throw in Houston, projected to finish 20-3 in the American, as an option for a top two seed. From here, it depends on who else can separate in the two best conferences (Big 10/12), and how the committee views leagues like the SEC and Big East by comparison. Illinois is just .05 points behind Tennessee in KenPom overall, but projected to finish 16-9. Similar stories with Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Kansas, and West Virginia.
If Alabama keeps winning, more power to them: that helps the league’s image in a year when Kentucky isn’t a factor. But no matter what Alabama does, the Vols have to keep holding up their end of the bargain.
For what it’s worth, Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology has the Vols grabbing the final number one seed (with Texas the two in that region, spicy). It puts LSU on the four line, Alabama at five, Missouri at six, Arkansas at eight, and Florida at ten. In the January 11 Bracket Matrix, Tennessee is the third two seed, which would put them in Baylor’s region if the curve held. There Missouri is a four, Alabama at seven, with Florida, LSU, and Arkansas all at nine.
The Vols technically won’t control their own destiny for the SEC title until Alabama loses a game, but if the Tide run the table, uh, they’ll deserve it. But Tennessee still feels very much in control of its own destiny to capture a one seed, especially as Big 10/12 teams begin to pick each other off. It’s still the right goal for this team, and one that would give them the best chance to check some other program firsts off the list.
Ten games in, we’d normally be 33% of the way through the regular season. But depending on whether Tennessee’s game with South Carolina gets rescheduled, we’re more like 40-42% of the way home this year. Either way, we’ve got enough data to draw a couple of meaningful conclusions about this team.
Their defense still sets them apart: 87.1 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings is second nationally, and still the best for any Tennessee team ever. I still think the offense played better than it felt at Texas A&M, in part because they got a lot of action late in the shot clock: “This possession isn’t going anywhere, wait no here’s a bucket…”. On Sunday evening the Vols are 27th in KenPom’s offensive ratings, flirting with that dual Top 20 set every national champion has.
But the most striking thing about the offense continues to be how truly balanced it is.
Through these first ten games, Tennessee’s top seven scorers all average between 8-12 points per game. It makes the Vols harder to scout, harder to defend. Five of those seven have led the team in scoring already, but Santiago Vescovi’s 23 on Saturday are still the team’s season high.
And we really haven’t seen anything like that on a tournament team at Tennessee.
This year should/will make 10 NCAA Tournament teams from Tennessee in the last 16 years. The other nine had either four or five players each account for at least 10% of Tennessee’s total points (it jumps up to six players in 2006 and 2009 if you round up from 9.5%+).
But these Vols currently feature seven players accounting for at least 10% of Tennessee’s points:
Bailey
16.1%
Fulkerson
15.1%
Vescovi
13.4%
Springer
13.0%
Johnson
11.1%
James
10.8%
Pons
10.2%
Offensively, Tennessee’s best teams have leaned either to the one-two punch, or far more balance:
One-Two Punch
Year
1st Scorer
% of Pts
2nd Scorer
% of Pts
Top 2
2007
Lofton
26.1%
J. Smith
19.1%
45.2%
2011
Hopson
24.1%
Harris
21.7%
45.8%
2014
McRae
26.2%
Stokes
21.2%
47.4%
In each of these cases, Tennessee’s top two scorers nearly outdid the rest of the team by themselves. Doing it this way can make your ceiling heavily reliant on what the third guy can give you: see Josh Richardon’s late emergence in Tennessee’s 2014 run. The 2007 Vols were guard dominant, still playing Dane Bradshaw post minutes while Ramar Smith was the team’s third leading scorer. And in 2011, there really wasn’t much happening behind Hopson and Harris, and little fluid offense overall beyond those two getting their own shots: Cameron Tatum was the third-leading scorer at 12.5% of the team’s points, the lowest for any third scorer on these tournament teams.
You can find the more balanced groups simply by looking at how much each team’s leading scorer contributed:
Balance
Year
Leading Scorer
% of Total Points
2014
McRae
26.2%
2007
Lofton
26.1%
2011
Hopson
24.1%
2019
Williams
22.8%
2009
T. Smith
22.2%
2006
Lofton
21.2%
2018
Williams
20.5%
2010
Chism
19.2%
2008
Lofton
18.7%
2021
Bailey
16.1%
In 2008, Tyler Smith’s arrival (and Chris Lofton’s health) made Tennessee far more diverse offensively, with great results. Tyler Smith also skews the 2010 math somewhat after being dismissed in early January, but Chism, Hopson, Prince, and Maze all ended up scoring between 14-19% of that team’s points overall, a strong sense of balance amongst that group.
Tennessee’s best offensive team walked the line between both: two years ago, Grant Williams had 22.8% of Tennessee’s points, Admiral Schofield 20%. But it was Jordan Bone’s offensive maturity – going from 9.8% of Tennessee’s points in 2018 to 16.4% in 2019, the third-leading scorer – that made a huge difference, while Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden continued to do their thing.
At the 40% mark, we shouldn’t expect these Vols to have a breakout offensive superstar. But I’m not sure we fully know what to expect beyond that, simply because we’ve never seen a Tennessee team rely on so many guys to get it done. That means one of the biggest unanswered questions is, “Who gets it done in crunch time?” Without Jaden Springer against Alabama and with John Fulkerson off the floor, Tennessee struggled. The late-game answer against Cincinnati and Arkansas was getting to the free throw line, with John Fulkerson a key component.
KenPom projects the Vols to play four one-possession games left on their schedule (at Florida, Kansas, at Kentucky, at LSU). The ebb and flow of a season suggests we’re going to see more than that in these last 14-15 games. Keep an eye on the crunch-time lineups.
The lead story should continue to be Tennessee’s defense. But the extraordinary, “It’s not about me,” balance of Tennessee’s offense is, so far, equally unheard of around here.
In the midst of what feels like perpetual uncertainty, a surprise: the Vols picked up a transfer portal commitment from Virginia Tech quarterback Hendon Hooker. I live in the Blacksburg “metro”, and have spent nine of the last 15 years in southwest Virginia. I’m by no means an expert on the Hokies, just someone who watches them more closely and interacts more often with their fans than the average Tennessee fan. You can find good analysis on Hooker’s game out there – here’s a few thoughts on how he got there.
Virginia Tech’s stability at head coach under Frank Beamer manifested itself into great stability at quarterback. There’s a long line of multi-year starters in the post-Vick era: Bryan Randall, Sean Glennon, Tyrod Taylor, Logan Thomas, Michael Brewer. As Justin Fuente took over in 2016, however, the pattern breaks. The first year the Hokies went the juco route with Jerod Evans, who we saw in Bristol. They won their division and gave Clemson a scare in the title game, Fuente was ACC Coach of the Year, all was well. Evans actually set some VT passing records…and then declared for the draft, where he was not selected, and has yet to play a down in the NFL.
In 2017 the Hokies went with freshman Josh Jackson. They again finished the regular season 9-3 with losses to Clemson and a good Miami team, and fell to #14 Oklahoma State in the bowl game. All was well. Then Jackson broke his leg in the third game of the 2018 season, what ended up being a catastrophic 49-35 loss to Old Dominion, maybe the first sign of some real defensive trouble under Fuente. Jackson ultimately transferred to Maryland.
Hendon Hooker was a freshman in 2018, but when Jackson went down the job went to Kansas transfer Ryan Willis. The Hokies were game against Notre Dame in a loss, then suffered four straight defeats in which they gave up 49, 31, 52, and 38 points. Willis again had the job at the start of the 2019 season, which opened with a loss to Boston College, close wins over Old Dominion and Furman, and a 45-10 beatdown in Blacksburg at the hands of David Cutcliffe. At this point, as people were commenting on the heat of Jeremy Pruitt’s seat after Georgia State, BYU, and Florida early in year two, the sudden temperature of Fuente’s seat in year four made for a helpful comparison: Pruitt shouldn’t be in trouble after 15 games, this is what being in trouble actually looks like, etc.
Then Virginia Tech went to Hendon Hooker.
In his first start at Miami, the Hokies scored 42 points thanks to five turnovers and won by a touchdown. Hooker was 10-of-20 for 184 yards and three touchdowns, plus 76 yards on the ground. His numbers were similar in a win over Rhode Island, and got off to a good start against North Carolina before a familiar theme emerged: he got hurt in the first half, missing the rest of a six-overtime win over the Tar Heels. And he also missed Virginia Tech’s trip to South Bend the following week.
He returned to guide a three-game winning streak over Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh, never throwing for more than 260 yards but also never throwing an interception. His rushing totals became less productive – 7 for 10 against Georgia Tech, 20 for 27 against Pitt – but the Hokies were winning and their defense was playing well again.
In the last two games of 2019, the Hokies played wild affairs with Virginia and Kentucky. Hooker was 18-of-30 for 311 yards against the Cavs, but threw his first two interceptions of the year, the first on a hail mary at the end of the first half. The last one came with VT driving to take the lead in Virginia territory; he was also sacked three times in a row on the next drive. This is a theme you’ll hear on Hooker: if the defense knows you’re throwing it, he can struggle.
He was better on the ground against Kentucky in the bowl (12 for 50), but the Cats did a good job stopping him through the air (12-of-22 for 110).
Obviously, you take everything in 2020 with a grain of salt. Covid testing showed an unrelated medical issue that kept Hooker out of VT’s first two games of the year, wins over NC State and Duke. Oregon transfer Braxton Burmeister ran an efficient offense and stayed at the helm against North Carolina, where the Hokies lost 56-45 in a game both QBs played in. From there it was back to Hooker, who was sensational on the ground in a win over Boston College (18 for 164). He went for 98 more rushing yards against Wake Forest the next week, but threw three interceptions and the Hokies lost. The next week, however, he was 10-of-10 passing for 183 yards and ran for another 68 in a 42-35 win over Louisville.
Against Liberty, Hooker was again really good: 156 yards rushing, 20-of-27 for 217 through the air with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Hokies lost a 38-35 shootout. Miami’s defense was better at taking all that away, beating Virginia Tech 25-24. And then the defense totally collapsed against Pittsburgh in a 47-14 defeat. Hooker again wasn’t bad statistically, but VT was never really in the game after halftime.
Then more weirdness: against Clemson, Hooker fumbled a snap on the opening drive and looked shaken, so Fuente went to Burmeister. He led a touchdown drive, so he stayed in the game. He was later removed for a scoop and score fumble, but the Hokies still trailed only 24-10 and had the ball in Clemson territory when Hooker returned. But he fumbled again, and appeared to have a medical issue on the sideline where he was shaking and “couldn’t get warm.” He did not play in the season finale against Virginia.
Had he thrown it enough to qualify, Hooker’s 2019 passer rating would’ve trailed only Trevor Lawrence among ACC quarterbacks. The Josh Dobbs comparisons I’ve seen are most fitting for pre-2016 Dobbs, the guy we wondered if they’d ever let him throw it deep down the field. That answer turned out to be an emphatic yes. Hooker’s dual threat skill set is something the 2020 Vols did not have on the roster, and he can certainly be efficient and mistake-free. It’s when defenses put him in third-and-long or he had to get them downfield in a hurry without his legs that Hooker struggled in particular. But there is no doubt potential and far more experience than anything the Vols will bring back next year.
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