Author Archives: Will Shelton

From a recruiting rankings standpoint, Tennessee’s 2021 basketball team might be the most talented in program history. It’s the only Vol squad of the recruiting rankings era to feature three five-stars (Keon Johnson, Jaden Springer, and Josiah-Jordan James), and now two of them have departed for the NBA Draft as one-and-done players. And on the back end, the draft itself should validate that talent: Keon Johnson is routinely projected as a lottery pick, with Jaden Springer sprinkled throughout the first round. If that unfolds, it’ll be only the second time in school history the Vols had two players taken in the first round of the same draft, following Ernie & Bernie. And Bernard King (7th) is one of just three Vols to ever be drafted in the Top 10, along with Tom Boerwinkle (4th) and Dale Ellis (9th). There’s a lot of history to be made in a few months.

So when we take all that and try to figure out how this team lost as a five seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament…you get the frustration. But when I started researching how far one-and-dones typically advance in the dance, it turns out the 2021 Vols are a more common tale than you might think.

The one-and-done rule has been in place for 15 seasons now, requiring high school seniors to play at least one year before becoming eligible for the draft. That first year in 2006 was a transitional time: Shawne Williams from Memphis was taken 17th overall, the only true freshman one-and-done of the draft. But the floodgates opened the following season: Greg Oden and Kevin Durant became the poster children for one-and-dones at the top of the NBA Draft, as eight of the first 21 players selected in the 2007 draft were college freshmen. And it’s gone about that way ever since.

Durant is sometimes used in protest against Rick Barnes: the 2007 Longhorns were 24-9 on Selection Sunday, earned a four seed, and were emphatically bounced in the second round by five-seed USC. “Couldn’t make the Final Four with Kevin Durant!”, etc.

Turns out, making the Final Four with one-and-dones is really hard to do, unless you’ve got a bunch of them.

In the last 15 tournaments played under the one-and-done rule, 60 teams made the Final Four. It’s important to note right away: 36 of those 60 Final Four teams had a player selected in the first round the same year (including projected first-round picks from Baylor and Gonzaga this year). That’s 60%. Talent is good!

But only 12 of those 60 Final Four teams had a one-and-done player selected in the first round. That’s only 20%. Only 10 of those 60 had a one-and-done player selected in the lottery, the top 14 picks. That’s 16.7%.

The idea that one-and-dones = tournament success built momentum early: Greg Oden’s 2007 Ohio State team, which we know plenty about, made the title game. Oden went on to be the first pick in the draft, with fellow one-and-dones Mike Conley (fourth) and Daequan Cook (21st) also going in the first round. The following year UCLA rode freshman Kevin Love (and sophomore Russell Westbrook) to the Final Four, while Derrick Rose was free throws away from winning a national title at Memphis. Oden’s NBA career didn’t work out, but the rest of this group – Conley, Love, Rose, plus Durant – has had tremendous NBA success.

Two years later, John Calipari walked through that door to Lexington and immediately brought the model to blue-blood Kentucky. John Wall and Demarcus Cousins fell in the Elite Eight, but went first and fifth in the draft. Brandon Knight went eighth as the Cats made the Final Four in 2011. And then in 2012, the breakthrough: Kentucky won the title with Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist going 1-2 in the NBA Draft as one-and-dones, plus Marquis Teague at 29th (and sophomore Terrence Jones at 18th – again, talent helps!).

Kentucky’s success got Duke in the one-and-done business. The Cats were back in the Final Four in 2014 with James Young and Julius Randle in the lottery. And then in 2015, you had superteams of freshmen: Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns went first, with Trey Lyles (12th) and Devin Booker (13th) also in the lottery, along with sophomore Willie Cauley-Stein (sixth). Thanks to Gonzaga’s defeat in this year’s title game, this is still the best team of the KenPom era, though they lost to Wisconsin in the Final Four. And the Badgers were then vanquished by a Duke squad with three one-and-done first rounders: Jahlil Okafor (third), Justise Winslow (10th), and Tyus Jones (24th).

After the 2015 season, it seemed there was no turning back. But instead, the opposite has happened.

In the last five Final Fours, only Zach Collins (Gonzaga 2017, 10th pick) and, we assume, Jalen Suggs have been one-and-done lottery picks. Tony Bradley, a reserve on North Carolina’s 2017 title team, was taken 28th overall. Malachi Richardson from Syracuse went 22nd in 2016. So in the last five Final Fours, only 10% of participants have featured a one-and-done lottery pick, and only 20% a one-and-done first round pick.

Tennessee needs to make the Final Four before it can worry about winning it all. But when you look at the title teams over the last 15 tournaments, only those 2012 Kentucky and 2015 Duke squads featured one-and-done lottery picks…and again, they both had two of them, plus a third freshman taken later in the first round. If you’re going to go that route, sure, you can win it all with freshmen…but only Duke and Kentucky have been able to recruit at that level, and they’ve only got one title to show for it that way each.

Again: talent is good. Twelve of the last 15 national champions had a player drafted in the first round that same year, and two of the three that didn’t were 2006 Florida and 2016 Villanova, who repeated and won two-in-three years, respectively. Talent is good. But the idea that one-and-done talent should automatically lead to NCAA Tournament success is far more flawed than it was six years ago.

One-and-dones still transition straight to the lottery: in the 2018 and 2019 NBA Drafts, 17 of the 28 lottery picks were freshmen. But when you look at what those 17 freshmen did in the NCAA Tournament:

Year	Player	School	Pick	Result
2019	Zion Williamson	Duke	1	Elite Eight
2019	RJ Barrett	Duke	3	Elite Eight
2019	Darius Garland	Vanderbilt	5	n/a
2019	Coby White	North Carolina	7	Sweet 16
2019	Jaxson Hayes	Texas	8	n/a
2019	Cam Reddish	Duke	10	Elite Eight
2019	Tyler Herro	Kentucky	13	Elite Eight
2019	Romeo Landford	Indiana	14	n/a
2018	Deandre Ayton	Arizona	1	First Round
2018	Marvin Bagley III	Duke	2	Elite Eight
2018	Jaren Jackson Jr.	Michigan State	4	Second Round
2018	Trae Young	Oklahoma	5	First Round
2018	Mo Bamba	Texas	6	First Round
2018	Wendell Carter Jr.	Duke	7	Elite Eight
2018	Collin Sexton	Alabama	8	Second Round
2018	Kevin Knox	Kentucky	9	Sweet 16
2018	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Kentucky	11	Sweet 16

If you played for Duke and Kentucky, alongside multiple one-and-dones, you made an Elite Eight. If not, you didn’t. Almost half of these guys didn’t get out of the first weekend.

So yes, Tennessee should continue to recruit talented players. But, as Rick Barnes already knows, the idea that you can find breakthrough success on the shoulders of one-and-dones is a struggling one these days. The Vols still need first-round talent, no doubt. But they appear more likely to have tournament success when that talent is developed over multiple years, not recruited and soon-to-be gone.

As usual, credit Ken Pomeroy for being on top of it: in preseason, Tennessee’s fresh-faced basketball team rated an even 20.00 (points better than the average team per 100 possessions). The Vols, of course, are now done playing; with a handful of tournament games left their rating will still fluctuate slightly. But at the moment, the 2021 Vols have a rating of 19.85.

Whether using SP+ for football (more on 2021 projections using those ratings soon) or KenPom in basketball, it’s helpful to put Tennessee’s seasons into better historical context. Not all 8-4s are created equal, nor are all five seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

This year in particular felt like such a struggle to define, and still does, because there are so many unique elements. The Vols had what appear to be a pair of one-and-dones, the program’s first and only since Tobias Harris ten years ago. Keon Johnson routinely appears in the lottery in mock drafts, Jaden Springer sprinkled throughout the first round. That’s new for us.

They helped the Vols earn a five seed, where Tennessee promptly lost to Oregon State, who continued to ride an incredible hot hand into the Sweet 16 after winning the Pac 12 Tournament. It was the first time the Vols had been upset in the first round (seeded 7 or higher) since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. That’s new for us.

The freshmen had to carry the weight without John Fulkerson, which they did sensationally well at Rupp Arena and admirably so against Alabama in the SEC Tournament. But when Yves Pons also left the floor in foul trouble against Oregon State, the Vols just looked so lost. It’s a lot to ask for the freshmen on that stage for the first time. The Vols played in the NCAA Tournament without one of their most important players. That’s new for us.

In fact, part of the story of Rick Barnes in the tournament at Tennessee has been bad luck. Kyle Alexander was injured in the first round romp over Wright State in 2018, and didn’t play against Loyola Chicago where the Vols fell to a shot that hit the rim 1234217 times before going in. Officiating squabbles aside, the Vols fell to Purdue when Ryan Cline hit seven three pointers on ten attempts, many of them outrageous. And the Vols fell to Oregon State without the services of John Fulkerson. The tournament has not been kind to the orange and white.

Meanwhile, the teams that have beaten Tennessee have made themselves look even better beyond. Loyola, of course, went to the Final Four. Purdue took the eventual national champions to overtime 48 hours later. Oregon State is still playing and just beat the potential number one overall pick. The Vols may have been the higher seed in each of those games, but the difference between wasn’t as high as we thought going in.

And all of this, of course, falls into the context of the pandemic, brand new and burdensome for all of us. Whether you fire Jeremy Pruitt with or without cause, lose as a five seed, or have a Top 10 baseball team, the pandemic should still get the first and last word on your season.

“Tournament results aside,” is what I want to type, and that’s a funny phrase. The tournament is what all of college basketball builds to. But if you make it pass/fail for your season, you’re going to fail a lot more than you like, especially in the most upset-prone bracket of all-time this year (see also: the pandemic) coming one tournament after the most loaded Sweet 16 of all-time, which happened to happen the year Tennessee had its best team.

That 2019 team still stands alone, both in weeks at number one and in KenPom’s ratings. Here are the tiers we used for Tennessee’s teams in the KenPom era (2002-present) during the preseason – it’s interesting to note where the 2021 Vols will ultimately land:

• Tier A – The Current Peak: 2019 (26.24 KenPom)
• Tier B – The Fully Capable: 2014 (23.69), 2018 (22.27), 2008 (22.17)
• Tier C – The Dangerous: 2021 (19.85), 2006 (19.44), 2010 (18.50), 2007 (18.29)
• Tier D – The Unnecessary Defense of Bruce Pearl: 2009 (16.48)
• Tier E – The Bubble (but probably the NIT)
• Tier F – That’s okay, we’re a football school (Buzz Peterson’s last two years, Donnie Tyndall, Rick Barnes’ first year)

In KenPom, four of Tennessee’s five best teams of the last 20 years belong to Barnes and Cuonzo. The 2021 Vols are fifth on that list, currently first in Tier C, together with 2006, 2007, and 2010 from Bruce Pearl’s era.

I like to think of SP+ and KenPom as, “Who would I least like to face?” And some nights, these Vols fit that bill. They beat Colorado and Arkansas, both in the KenPom Top 15. They famously waxed a pair of AP Top 15 squads at Missouri and vs Kansas. And they still made memories late with back-to-back, emotionally-charged wins over Florida. They won seven regular season SEC games by 10+ points, trailing only 2008, 2014, and 2019.

And they lost three regular season SEC games by 10+ points, trailing only 2007 and 2010 among Tennessee’s recent tournament teams. They played only two one-possession games all year. Their worst lost on the slate is at Auburn, 63rd in KenPom. Only the 2006 and 2019 Vols had a better record there in terms of not losing to bad teams; this team’s “bad” wasn’t as bad as you think.

The main issue is that their good never got to be as good as it was in mid-January. At 10-1 (4-1), the Vols had only lost to Alabama in a game when Jaden Springer got hurt and, again, Pons was in foul trouble. At that point the Vols were sixth nationally in KenPom, and we were having conversations about a one seed and winning the SEC. From there, Springer was still banged up, lineups got weird, responsibilities were shifted, and along the way Tennessee went 8-8.

So, what’s the best comparison for this year? I don’t think there is one.

It has the one-and-done and off-the-court weirdness of 2011, with the mid-season fall of 2001 (so perhaps the lesson is, be careful in years that end with 1). But it also had some truly dominant regular season performances that could be matched only by some of Tennessee’s very best teams, with no very worst losses. It’s not a good comparison on the floor or in the record book, but maybe 2009 is its best counterpart, simply for the way this year doesn’t feel like it belongs with any others.

I remain grateful that they played at all. And more good news is on the way: Kennedy Chandler is Tennessee’s highest-rated signee since Tobias Harris and Scotty Hopson (again, no guarantees, see 2011). Four-star wing Jahmai Mashack joins him in the incoming class. John Fulkerson might be back. Who knows what the transfer portal will bring.

Without Keon, Springer, and Pons, it’ll feel like the ceiling is a little lower going in. But in reality, it’ll be the same question mark from this season as the Vols seek to put so many new pieces in important places.

Under Rick Barnes, Tennessee is giving themselves better chances than ever in terms of talent, beating Kentucky more than ever, and losing to fewer bad teams than ever. And though we thought the bracket was kind going in this year, the tournament itself is yet to return the favor to one of his teams.

At the same time, the tournament will always be the last impression your team leaves. As Tennessee continues to pursue just its second Elite Eight in program history, here’s hoping the Vols can build on what they learned from this year and carry the program’s history forward not just November-February, but in March as well.

Go Vols.

It’s not so much that this game represented Tennessee’s worst basketball, though that might be true of the performance. It felt more like a team that struggled in the second half of the year with its offensive identity seemed to lose itself completely during this game. No John Fulkerson, and then no Yves Pons with foul trouble. It was already out of hand when Josiah James exited with a nasty looking ankle injury. And the Vols never found the pieces to put it back together.

You can look at the minutes and see the search: Uros Plavsic early, Olivier Nkamhoua for a long stretch with Pons on the bench in the first half, E.J. Anosike in that role in the second half. Tennessee’s interior defense was completely victimized by Roman Silva as a result: Silva’s season high was six made shots in a game, something he did three times. Today he went 8-for-8. And Oregon State’s hot shooting from the Pac-12 Tournament persisted: 10-of-21 from the arc, 47.6%. In Tennessee’s last five NCAA Tournament games, opponents from the arc shot:

• Loyola Chicago: 8-of-20 (40%)
• Colgate: 15-of-29 (51.7%)
• Iowa: 7-of-21 (33.3%)
• Purdue: 15-of-31 (48.4%)
• Oregon State: 10-of-21 (47.6%)
• Total: 55-of-122 (45.1%)

The Vols allowed 31.8% from the arc all season before today, 35.4% in 2019, and 31.8% in 2018.

So one part of this, much the way we tipped our hat to Ryan Cline upon our last exit, is to credit Oregon State. Not only did they stay hot offensively, they scouted Tennessee very well and attacked with excellence where the Vols were most vulnerable without Fulkerson.

And one part of this is certainly Fulkerson’s absence. In this way too, Tennessee has fallen on the wrong side of luck in postseason play under Rick Barnes, with Kyle Alexander’s sudden absence a factor in the loss to Loyola three years ago.

Things felt up in the air without #10, though Tennessee played so well against Alabama without him you felt hopeful it might show up again. Instead, the Vols got so out of sorts so early, they never recovered. Tennessee’s own three-point shooting was poor, but that’s not the first time we’ve run into that problem this year (or recently, see 3-of-21 against Florida in Knoxville). What hurt Tennessee’s offense more was an inability to get to the line: just 12 free throw attempts, the fourth-lowest of the season. Tennessee’s 10 assists were also fourth-lowest on the year, another sign that things simply weren’t working offensively. In the late frenzy the Vols did push Oregon State over the “magic” 14+ turnover mark at 15, but by then it was too late.

There’s a lot you can say about this one, little of it good. We have little experience without Fulkerson, and no experience losing as this kind of favorite in the first round of the tournament, all of which makes conclusions easier to jump to. The loss is certainly disappointing, as is a first round exit from a 10-1 start.

The thing I am most sure of this year remains the pandemic. And so more than anything, I want to go back and say again how grateful I am that this team played basketball in the first place. I don’t know everything they went through, and I’m sure their disappointment outnumbers our own. But I’m so grateful they’ve been there twice a week for four months. And I’m hopeful the 2021-22 Vols will only be answering questions about the virus in the past tense.

Our first impressions of Tennessee’s draw were pretty favorable: bid thieves moved some of the more dangerous mid-major champions off the 12 line, and by most any metric you’d rather play Oregon State than Georgetown in that department anyway. It’s easy to look ahead to Cade Cunningham, Illinois, or Sister Jean.

Skipping past the first round is also in our DNA: this is Tennessee’s 15th NCAA Tournament appearance since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, and the Vols have never lost in the first round as a seven seed or higher. Tennessee is 9-5 in Round 1, going 0-4 in the 8/9 game plus a loss as a 10 seed in 1989. Sooner or later, the first round upset will come for our NCAA Tournament bingo card…so how can we avoid it happening this time?

This is Oregon State’s first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2016, which was their first since 1990. You always wonder about some, “Happy to be here!” from the bid thieves. But that only tends to be the case about half the time:

Major Conference Bid Thieves, 2008-2019

Year	Team	Seed	Result
2019	Oregon	12	S16
2014	Providence	11	R1
2013	Ole Miss	12	R2
2012	Colorado	11	R2
2010	Washington	11	S16
2009	Mississippi St	13	R1
2008	Georgia	14	R1

(Here’s a good piece from John Gasaway on this from 2018)

If you exclude our SEC friends from 2008 and 2009, in the last decade major conference bid thieves won at least one game in the big dance four out of five times. Hot teams tend to stay hot.

Oregon State’s run started before the Pac-12 Tournament. After a February 20 loss to Colorado, the Beavers were 11-11 (7-9). They won three straight over Cal, Stanford, and Utah before falling to Oregon in the regular season finale. It took overtime in the Pac 12 quarterfinals to beat UCLA, but then they also took down NCAA Tournament teams from Oregon and Colorado to win the prize.

In the Pac 12 Tournament, Oregon State was the definition of hot team from the arc:

• UCLA: 10-of-25 (40%)
• Oregon: 10-of-19 (52.6%)
• Colorado: 9-of-22 (40.9%)
• Pac 12 Tournament: 29-of-66 (43.9%)

They shot 33% from three in league play in the regular season. 43.9% is how you advance.

We saw two years ago how any hot-shooting team can give you a run for your money. Not only did Auburn and Purdue hit 15 threes apiece against the Vols in the SEC and NCAA Tournaments, Colgate did it too at a blistering 15-of-29 (51.7%), giving us all we wanted in the first round. Fifteen threes is the most any opponent has hit against Tennessee in the last decade, and three different teams did it over the course of those 19 days. In good news, only one team has hit more than 10 threes against the Vols this year: Vanderbilt went 13-of-33 (39.4%) in Nashville and still lost by 12.

Elsewhere, Oregon State is a team that generally takes care of the basketball: 82nd nationally in turnover percentage, so less likely to play into Tennessee’s greatest strength. They turned it over just 11 times in the overtime win over UCLA, and only six times in the title game against Colorado. They share the ball well, 25th in assist rate. Fortunately for the Vols, they do play into Tennessee’s second greatest strength: the Beavers are 304th nationally in defensive free throw rate. They love to put teams on the line, which can get Tennessee’s offense going even when turnovers aren’t available.

Tennessee never loses as a higher seed in the first round, but hot teams off surprise conference tournament titles tend to stay hot. Oregon State has been launching from three, but the Vols have defended it well all year. And the Vols have been excellent at forcing turnovers, while the Beavers don’t give it away.

In a match-up where it’s hard for either team to lean on its greatest strengths, individual performances can make the biggest difference. Tennessee’s only quality win without a quality performance from John Fulkerson came at Rupp Arena, when Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer went off. Those two almost carried the Vols to victory against Alabama. Is there a scenario where they’re simply better than what Oregon State can throw at them defensively?

In a pandemic year that encourages us to look ahead by default, don’t skip the first round. Survive and advance is still the most important part. I’m curious to see how the Vols will attack.

4:30 PM Friday on TNT, from the home of the Indiana Pacers.

Go Vols.

When you play from the 4/5 line, you run into three truths right away:

1. You’re probably going to play one of the best mid-majors in the nation in round one. That’s how, as the NCAA points out in their series on seed history, at least one 12 seed has beaten a five 30 of the last 35 years, and the 12s win 35.7% of the time overall.

…but thanks to bid thieves Georgetown and Oregon State, two of those top mid-major AQ slots fell to 13. And the Vols drew the weaker of the two thieves in Oregon State (KenPom #85 vs the #55 Hoyas).

2. Four and five seeds are projected to play the closest matchups in round two. That’s the nature of the beast. But this year’s S-curve has its imperfections, including Tennessee – the third-best five seed in the committee’s eyes – being paired with Oklahoma State, the third-best four seed.

https://twitter.com/NicoleAuerbach/status/1371232513369210881

On the seed list, there’s not a big difference between Purdue and Oklahoma State. In KenPom, it’s significant: the Boilers are 13th nationally, the Cowboys 30th. Other four seeds Virginia and Florida State are also in the KenPom Top 15. In short, if you believe in Mr. Pomeroy’s work, the Vols drew the weakest four seed. And we’ll all hold our breath with Cade Cunningham if we both get out of the first round, but Oklahoma State is a robust 298th in offensive turnover percentage…which is the very thing Tennessee’s defense does best, 14th nationally in defensive turnover percentage. Stay tuned.

3. You’re probably going to play one of the best teams in college basketball in the Sweet 16. Illinois would certainly qualify: third overall in KenPom, winners of seven straight including now Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State, Rutgers, Iowa, and Ohio State again in a row, all on the road or in the Big Ten Tournament. That’s stupid good. And don’t worry, I’ve got thousands of words to say about Sister Jean’s squad if they get it done instead; they too would be favored over Tennessee right now.

However, this year everyone who didn’t end up in Gonzaga’s region has to feel like a winner today. That’s not to say a loss to the Illini next week wouldn’t earn the same, “Well, we went as far as we could,” good game pat on the butt. But it’s a much more interesting conversation going in.

If you use the S-curve and the seed list, the Midwest Region is actually the easiest path for the top five seeds:

Gonzaga	1	Baylor	2	Illinois	3	Michigan	4
Iowa	7	Ohio State	6	Houston	8	Alabama	5
Kansas	12	Arkansas	9	West Virginia	10	Texas	11
Virginia	16	Purdue	14	Oklahoma St	15	Florida State	13
Creighton	17	Villanova	18	Tennessee	19	Colorado	20
Region Total	53		49		55		53

Tennessee has played from the 4/5 three times since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Jerry Green’s Vols did it twice in a row from #4 in 1999 and 2000: both times they avoided the worst case scenario, and both times met a disappointing end anyway. In ’99 the Vols beat 13-seed Delaware by ten in round one, rejoiced when Missouri State upset Wisconsin as a 12 seed…and then lost by 30 in round two. The next year, the Vols survived a feisty Rajun Cajuns squad in round one, then knocked off the defending champs from UConn in the 4/5 game in round two, earning the program’s first ever Sweet 16 appearance in the 64-team field. Madness dominated the region, as the top three seeds all went down the first weekend, leaving the four-seed Vols as the favorite to make the Final Four. They led eight-seed North Carolina by three possessions with five minutes to play…and lost. It went better than we thought it would, and then it hurt more than we thought it would.

Ditto seven years later with Bruce Pearl’s second squad: more than avoided the 5-12 upset by putting 121 points on Long Beach State, then gutted out a win over four-seed Virginia in round two. This time Goliath showed up for the Sweet 16 in the form of number one seed Ohio State at 32-3 (15-1). House money, we told ourselves. Then we were up 20 late in the first half. Then we lost at the buzzer. It went (a lot) better than we thought it would, and then it hurt (a lot) more than we thought it would.

The 4/5 line was the right, fair place to send this year’s Tennessee squad. And, if you’re going to play from here, on your paper bracket the Vols avoided the tough mid-major, have the most favorable option among the four seeds, and dodged the tournament’s largest bullet from Gonzaga. If you’re going to do it from here, it’s a good way to do it.

Everything with Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament fate will continue to start with the health and availability of John Fulkerson. But if he can’t go, Tennessee’s performance without him today against Alabama was incredibly encouraging.

Credit the Tide for their steadiness, even when down 15 with 17 to play. Alabama is relentless on both ends, and Tennessee matched them today. Two of the nation’s four best defenses didn’t disappoint: the Vols forced 17 turnovers, 19 for the Tide. It became only the second time this year Tennessee lost when forcing 14+, still not a bad sign considering the opponent and the newness.

Uros Plavsic played what had to be the most minutes of his career, and I thought did well considering. Davonte Gaines got a crunch-time defensive possession and aced it against Herbert Jones, then grabbed the rebound and got fouled. Don’t let his two missed free throws erase the reason he was on the line in the first place. We’re going to need him again before we’re done.

Tennessee’s only quality win without John Fulkerson scoring 10+ points before yesterday was at Rupp Arena, when the freshmen simply took over. It was the plan from the tip today: Keon Johnson had 20 points on 9-of-16 shooting, plus nine rebounds. Jaden Springer had 18 on 7-of-17 from the floor, plus four rebounds and three assists. And they each turned it over five times. Alabama’s defense is the ultimate test this year, and they each got some right and got some wrong.

And there was no better available practice in Nashville overall than the Tide, and the Vols were still close enough to get one more exam: a game-on-the-line offensive possession, rare for this team that’s only played a pair of one-possession games all year. Victor Bailey rushed a three that didn’t come close with nine seconds still on the clock. Again, better to work that stuff out this week than next.

What of the bracket? The 4/5 line feels like a safe bet, which means you’re going to catch some of the best mid-majors or a team from “Dayton” in round one. Tennessee hasn’t played from there since 2007, so it’ll probably be a more interesting first round experience than what we’re used to.

But the Vols have to feel better about themselves, with and without Fulkerson, than when they came to Nashville. And after a rough go of it in February and early March, the Vols have now put together three really good games in a row against teams that should be seeded eight or higher in the NCAA Tournament, and Bama may still flirt with a one seed. That’s good to know, because that’s exactly who you’ll see in the Sweet 16 from 4/5 if chalk holds.

All that will come. For now:

#Vols coach Rick Barnes: I’m really proud of our guys. They’re excited about next week, and they should be. We’ve got a good team.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) March 13, 2021

And that can be true whether Fulkerson plays or not, it seems. The Vols weren’t overly fortunate today – 7-of-21 from the arc, 41.7% from the floor – but made Alabama work for everything on the other end. The defense truly is good enough to be there every night, and it won’t be Bama every night from here.

At the end of a long year, the old dancing shoes still feel good on our feet. Where to next?

Go Vols.

John Fulkerson is officially out…

Due to facial injuries sustained Friday, John Fulkerson has been ruled out for the remainder of the SEC Tournament.

— Tennessee Basketball (@Vol_Hoops) March 13, 2021

…which makes this a good time to point out that not only is Rick Barnes 8-6 against Kentucky, he’s 7-2 against Florida.

Moving forward, let’s start with Alabama. In the first game against the Tide, Jaden Springer got hurt after playing just five minutes, and Yves Pons sat most of the first half with two fouls. The result was lineup Wheel of Fortune: E.J. Anosike played 10 minutes, Olivier Nkamhoua played four, Drew Pember three, Davonte Gaines one. With no Fulkerson, we know the Vols can play Pons at the five and Josiah at the four, probably even when Bama puts Herbert Jones and Jordan Bruner on the court together. I’ll be curious to see if they also try the four-guard lineup with Vescovi, Bailey, the freshmen, and Pons. But either way, somebody else is going to have to play today, and possibly beyond.

Nkamhoua hasn’t played more than four minutes since the home loss to Kentucky on February 20. Anosike hasn’t played more than three minutes since the Georgia win on February 10. Can Davonte Gaines get in the mix? Who can give the Vols something off the bench in the short and long term?

I’d imagine Fulkerson’s status for the NCAA Tournament won’t be disclosed in a way that will impact Tennessee’s seeding. The Vols were on the five line in yesterday’s Bracket Matrix, and not all of those brackets took Villanova’s loss into account. Over at Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology the Vols are a four, with Tennessee’s Teamcast leaving them as the final four seed with a loss today, the final two seed by beating Alabama then Arkansas, and a three seed in any other Sunday scenario. My best guess would be anything from 3-5 at this point.

To that end, here’s what to watch for today, with seeds from the March 12 Bracket Matrix – you want the team in bold to lose:

• Alabama vs Tennessee (5) – 1:00 PM – SEC Network
• Arkansas vs LSU – 3:30 PM – SEC Network
• Houston (2) vs Memphis – 5:30 PM – ESPN2
• Oklahoma State (3) vs Texas (3) – 6:00 PM – ESPN
• Creighton (5) vs Georgetown – 6:30 PM – Fox
• Florida State (5) vs Georgia Tech – 8:30 PM – ESPN
• Colorado (6) vs Oregon State – 10:30 PM – ESPN

The Buffaloes, of course, are a former Vol opponent, but at this point I think the loss would be more helpful to Tennessee’s seed. There are also great games between teams the Vols shouldn’t pass in the field in the Big Ten semifinals.

We’ll have to wait on Fulkerson’s health to really dive into NCAA Tournament expectations. But if you’re curious how far they might go without him, playing Alabama today can be a blessing in disguise. Get your feet wet before it costs you the whole season…and make no mistake, Alabama is the deep end. Let’s see how well we can swim.

Beat Bama.

The big picture conversation here will be John Fulkerson: first, his health as we assume he’s in concussion protocol. Second, what that will mean for the Vols against Alabama tomorrow and next week in the NCAA Tournament. The Vols got some good minutes from Uros Plavsic to help on Colin Castleton even before Fulkerson went down today; someone, whether Plavsic, Olivier Nkamhoua, or E.J. Anosike seems likely to have to give Tennessee something against at least the Tide tomorrow.

The Vols were up nine at halftime, and nine with 17 minutes to play when Fulkerson went down. They did a good job handling that moment, immediately pushing it to 13 off the flagrant two foul, and getting it to 17 two minutes later off a Santiago Vescovi three. Florida cut it to eight for one possession at 11:00, and otherwise trailed by double digits the rest of the way. Credit Tennessee for handling everything well before, during, and after Fulky went down.

This game was a great example of Tennessee’s defense making such a huge difference, even when the other team is making shots. Florida hit 10-of-24 (41.7%) from three, 16-of-18 at the line, and Tre Mann scored 30 points. But it never really mattered, because the Vols forced 16 turnovers, moving to 15-1 when they force 14+ on the year. And Tennessee blocked eleven shots, a school record nine of which belonged to Yves Pons, who tied the SEC Tournament record. If he blocks just three shots tomorrow, he’ll move into the top five for a single SEC Tournament.

Meanwhile, the Vols hit nine threes of their own on a surprising 25 attempts, cleaned it up some at the free throw line (13-of-18), and most importantly, they got it from everywhere. Uros got a deuce in his short stint. Fulkerson had eight before he left. Vescovi with 14, the freshmen with 13 each, 11 from Pons, 10 from Josiah, 7 from Bailey. I mean, look at these lines:

• Pons: 11 points, 8 rebounds, 9 blocks
• Vescovi: 14 points, 5 assists
• Keon: 13 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists
• Springer: 13 points, 4 rebounds, 3 steals
• Josiah: 10 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists

That’s three guys who flirted with a double-double, and Pons almost had the big man triple-double.

A historical note we’ll keep making: after running to the tournament finals with Allan Houston in 1991, the Vols never even made it to Saturday from 1992-2007. Now the Vols will play in the semifinals for the seventh time in the last 13 years, still in pursuit of their first SEC Tournament title since 1979.

It’s only Bama next. After their performance today, it feels like an opportunity game more than anything, and one the Vols will likely have to chase without their senior leader. You can never be sure with the selection committee, but I feel like the Vols have played their way into the “no worse than a five seed,” conversation. It can only go up from here.

And more than anything, Tennessee found a new rhythm in beating the Gators back-to-back, breaking out of their late-season rut and playing some of their best basketball today, even when Florida was shooting it so well. We’ll see how far that can take them, plus or minus Fulkerson, tomorrow and beyond.

Go Vols.

What will happen when the Vols and Gators meet for the third time today? Who knows. No Jaden Springer the first time, and the Vols got rolled 75-49. No Tre Mann the second time, and the Vols turned a 14-point deficit into an 11-point win as Florida made just three shots in the final 17:30. Everyone should be firing on all cylinders today…which hopefully includes Tennessee, after going 3-of-18 from the arc in Gainesville and 3-of-21 in Knoxville last week. And the Vols went 12-of-25 at the line the first time and just 8-of-13 the second time. The room for improvement is definitely still on Tennessee’s side.

The Vols are hovering right on the 5/6 line in the Bracket Matrix. Yesterday’s matrix had a strong consensus on the Top 11 teams in the field, including Arkansas, West Virginia, and Kansas on the three line. But there was a big drop in average seed from there to the final number three seed: Villanova, who then lost to Georgetown. If the matrix holds, that should mean a tight field from the last number three seed down through the first two number six seeds: eleven teams that could go anywhere from 3-6. In yesterday’s order with all seeds from the Bracket Matrix:

• #3 Villanova (lost to Georgetown)
• #4 Oklahoma State (beat #3 West Virginia yesterday, vs #1 Baylor 6:30 PM ESPN)
• #4 Texas (beat #6 Texas Tech yesterday, vs #3 Kansas 9:30 PM ESPN2)
• #4 Purdue (vs #2 Ohio State 2:00 PM Big Ten Network)
• #4 Virginia (vs Georgia Tech 6:30 PM ESPN2)
• #5 Florida State (vs North Carolina 9:00 PM ESPN)
• #5 USC (vs #6 Colorado 11:30 PM ESPN)
• #5 Creighton (vs UCONN 9:00 PM Fox Sports 1)
• #5 Tennessee (vs Florida 2:30 PM SEC Network)
• #6 Texas Tech (lost to #4 Texas)
• #6 Colorado (vs #5 USC 11:30 PM ESPN)

In such a tight field from 3-6, the Vols remain in a situation where every game could be worth a seed. Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology has the Vols as the second #5 seed right now, and their Tennessee Teamcast sends the Vols anywhere to the #6 line with a loss today to the #3 line just by making to to Sunday via Alabama and facing either Arkansas or LSU. Again, the windows are tight, and wins are really valuable this week.

How do the Vols get there? What represents Tennessee’s best basketball as we enter postseason play?

Defense is a given: the Vols are fourth nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency, and at the moment still the best Tennessee defense of the KenPom era, with those stats stretching back to 1997. It suffers when Yves Pons or Josiah James leave the floor, so staying out of foul trouble remains key. But Tennessee’s defense is also the best way to unlock the secrets of Tennessee’s offense:

Forcing Turnovers: 14-1 when forcing 14+

The most magical of Tennessee’s numbers. Forcing turnovers is the thing Tennessee’s defense does best, 16th nationally and first in the SEC in turnover percentage. When the half-court stuff breaks down, the Vols can still get it by creating transition opportunities here.

The Vols lost a Quad 1 win in this morning’s NET ratings when the Gators slipped to 31st overall. Tennessee is likely to have six Quad 1 wins regardless of today’s outcome: either beat Florida to get it back, or lose to the Gators but get the one in Knoxville back as they climb up the ratings. To get to seven, they’ll have to win Saturday.

The point is, three of Tennessee’s five current Quad 1 wins featured the most turnovers the Vols have created this season: 22 against Colorado, 20 at Missouri, 20 vs Arkansas (via sports-reference). Tennessee’s lone loss at 14+ is at Ole Miss, where 17 turnovers couldn’t overcome a bunch of weirdness.

Can they win without it? Yes: the Vols got 13 at Rupp, so right on the line. But if you want the, “What if they just made shots,” experiment, that’s Kansas: 53% from the floor, 8-of-13 from the arc, 16-of-17 at the line. If that kind of shooting performance shows up this week or beyond, the Vols will beat anyone not named Gonzaga. The Jayhawks turned it over just seven times and lost by 19 points. They’re 9-2 with an overtime loss and a 13-point win over Baylor since then. If the Vols can’t force turnovers, they need shots to fall to win.

Get to the line (and make them): 87-of-131 (66%) in losses

Again, if the half-court offense isn’t working, get to the line. The Vols are a good free-throw shooting team overall (74.5%, 62nd nationally), and led the SEC in free throw rate. It’s the thing a herky-jerky offense does best.

But in four of Tennessee’s losses (Alabama, Florida, Missouri, Ole Miss), the Vols missed 36 free throws. And at Auburn, Tennessee got to the line for just ten attempts.

Part of getting there means relying on how the game is being officiated; some of Tennessee’s worst basketball would then come from Pons and Josiah getting in foul trouble but the Vols not getting those calls on the other end. It’s a little more reliant on officiating than you’d like.

An important, freshman-related sub-plot here: Jaden Springer is probably the most underrated component of Tennessee’s offense. He’s 82nd nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, shoots 80.4% at the line, and is 18-of-39 (46.2%) from three, even though he doesn’t always take them. It might be a little late in the game to get more threes from him into the offense, but having him go to the rim is a big part of what Tennessee already does well. Keon Johnson does it really well too, 111th nationally in fouls drawn per 40. But the Vols are 16-3 when Keon takes less than 12 shots, 1-4 when he takes 12 or more. That’s not Keon’s fault, that’s the, “Nothing else is working, Keon do something,” offense showing up. The one in that 1-4 is Rupp Arena, but I don’t think Kentucky (or any of us) were prepared for what happened that night, and had a good bit to do with our next main point.

Can they win without it? They just did: only 8-of-13 at the line against the Gators, but that matters less when the other team simply can’t score. If the Vols can’t get to (and convert at) the line, they need their very best defensive basketball to win.

John Fulkerson: 13-1 when he scores 10+

Fulkerson is certainly a part of getting to the free throw line. And again, I don’t think the Vols need 2020 All-SEC John Fulkerson, who averaged 14 and 6, to get their best basketball in 2021. But ten is an important number for him.

In Tennessee’s losses, Fulkerson had four at Auburn, at LSU, and vs Kentucky. He had seven against Alabama and Missouri: against the Tide he went 3-of-8 at the line, against the Tigers he attempted a single free throw. And he had eight at Ole Miss.

In good news for today, the one exception to this rule was the game in Gainesville, when Fulkerson had 15 points. Two of his best games of the season have come against Florida. The Vols are 9-1 when Fulkerson simply attempts eight shots or more, Gainesville also being the exception.

He doesn’t have to carry this team, he just needs to carry his weight. Senior Day was very promising. Let’s see what happens in round three with Florida.

Can they win without it? See Rupp Arena, 2021 edition. But Tennessee’s other wins with Fulkerson in single digits came against bad teams, or the 56-53 slog against Mississippi State. If Fulkerson doesn’t score double digits, you’ll need the freshmen to go supernova. After the first round of the NCAA Tournament, is that a realistic scenario?

Only big basketball games from here boys and girls. Let’s keep the party going.

Go Vols.