Author Archives: Will Shelton

Are there enough carrots?

In each of the last two SEC expansions, Tennessee had no reason to worry. Arkansas and South Carolina weren’t perceived as serious threats in 1992, nor Missouri in 2012. Of course, those teams went 3-0 against the Vols in their SEC debuts, so what do we know.

But now, Texas and Oklahoma and Tennessee’s continual slide makes for a different conversation for us. I’m not sure any of us know how to define success for Tennessee in a 16-team SEC. But perhaps it’s helpful to look back at how teams on Tennessee’s level have defined success in the last expansion.

The top tier has won enough, and recently, to not be concerned with newcomers just yet. The Vols used to be in this group. If the success conversation begins with Atlanta, this group generally finds themselves in the thick of that conversation more often than not.

Here’s a rough estimate of not only division titles, but how many times each team had a realistic chance to get to Atlanta:

Getting to Atlanta 2012-2020

Alabama Tier

  • Alabama: Six SEC West titles, nine total chances to win (100%)

Traditional Powers, Modern Success

  • Auburn: Two SEC West titles, five total chances to win (55.6%)
  • Florida: Three SEC East titles, six total chances to win (66.7%)
  • Georgia: Four SEC East titles, six total chances to win (66.7%)
  • LSU: One SEC West title, four total chances to win (44.4%)

Three of these teams also carry recent-enough history from before expansion to buoy them: Florida won it all in 2006 & 2008, Auburn in 2010, and LSU played for it in 2011. And on the tail end, some disappointing finishes for Les Miles got wiped away by Ed Orgeron and Joe Burrow in 2019.

What about the next group down? Among these eight schools, only Missouri actually won a division title post-expansion. Each of them had at least one real chance to get there. And we’ve added a note on how often they changed head coaches as another barometer of success:

The Middle Tier

  • Arkansas: One chance to win (2015), Four head coaches
  • Kentucky: One chance to win (2018), Two head coaches
  • Ole Miss: Two chances to win (2014-15), Three head coaches
  • Mississippi State: One chance to win (2014), Three head coaches
  • Missouri: Two SEC East titles (2013-14), two total chances to win, Three head coaches
  • South Carolina: Three chances to win (2013-14, 2017), Three head coaches
  • Tennessee: Two chances to win (2015-16), Four head coaches
  • Texas A&M: Three chances to win (2013-14, 2020), Two head coaches

Vanderbilt Tier

  • Vanderbilt: Zero chances to win, Three head coaches

Here’s the question: how many of these programs felt like success was attainable in the last decade?

The schools that really only made one pass at Atlanta all have different bonuses. Arkansas was nationally elite the year before expansion before Bobby Petrino’s motorcycle cost them. Mississippi State didn’t just almost get to Atlanta, they spent four weeks at #1 in 2014 and earned a New Year’s Six invite. And Kentucky has become the most stable non-Alabama job in the SEC during this run, with Stoops working a slow burn to a winner-take-all game with Georgia in 2018.

Ole Miss had two chances to win with Hugh Freeze, then lost him to scandal. Tennessee was any number of plays away from winning the SEC East had they beaten Florida in Gainesville in 2015, and gave away a 2-0 lead on Florida and Georgia in 2016. They are more isolated moments of almost-success.

South Carolina came into expansion with a division title in 2010 and plenty of momentum. The Gamecocks had every opportunity to get back to Atlanta in 2012 and 2013, and did catch what would’ve been a winner-take-all game with Georgia in 2017 considering they beat Florida the following week. But overall their success is certainly tilted toward the front half of the last decade, thus Muschamp out and Beamer in. Missouri is the hardest one to place, I think: a pair of division titles, then a 1-7 finish in league play the following year with Pinkel’s retirement. Barry Odom had some close losses in a 4-4 finish in 2018, but they never really threatened, thus new coach last year.

And then there’s Texas A&M, who threatened with Johnny Football then didn’t again after the month of September. They’re the clearest-cut example of the road simply going through Alabama now: an incredible year last season, but effectively over in week two when the Tide won 52-24.

Of this group, I think certainly A&M thinks they can get to Atlanta. Tennessee has the historical expectation. South Carolina proved they could flirt with it regularly under Spurrier. I would imagine Missouri believes it can still be done since they did it twice. And Lane Kiffin talks often about the ceiling that drew him to Oxford.

As for the rest? Is the expectation at Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi State to get to Atlanta at least once? Is that healthy or reasonable?

I’m comforted by the fact that, other than Vanderbilt, everybody got close at least once in the last expansion, and 10 of the league’s 14 teams have multiple seasons that are legitimate what-ifs in that same span.

You can’t what-if it forever, of course. But what is success going to be in a 16-team league? Atlanta? A spot in a 12-team playoff?

The Vols, of course, haven’t sniffed a hypothetical 12-team playoff since 2007, and probably wouldn’t have made that field since 2003. But the rest of that group? Arkansas would’ve been in in 2011, and in expansion times:

Mid-Tier SEC Teams in a Hypothetical 12-Team Playoff 2012-20 (BCS/CFP data)

  • 2012: South Carolina, Texas A&M
  • 2013: Missouri, South Carolina
  • 2014: Ole Miss, Mississippi State
  • 2020: Texas A&M

Kentucky would’ve just missed in 2018. The only teams that really haven’t come close during that span are Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and of course…Tennessee.

Is there something to mid-tier teams not having as much success since 2014 or so? I’m not sure. And the Vols have plenty of room to grow their own definition of success under Josh Heupel.

But it’s valuable – in Fayetteville, Lexington, Columbia, Starkville, Oxford, and Knoxville – to believe your team, yes your team, can have a shot. And that conversation has to stay alive into November every now and then.

How likely are these programs to find success in this brave new world? I’m not sure. But I do find it somewhat comforting that all of them came close at least once, and most more often than that, in the last expansion.

Will we win in time?

If you’ve been following along with us through the years, whether here or at Rocky Top Talk, you probably know that in the real world I’m a United Methodist pastor. And I’m really proud to share a book I wrote in that real world, which comes out today. Roots of Eden explores the first truths about God and human beings, told through the first three chapters of Genesis. I’d love for you to check it out here.

The journey of this book was paved, in part, by the reps of writing however many thousands of words in this space for the last 15 years. Whether this is your first time on our site or you’ve been with us forever, thanks so very much for reading.

The Vols, of course, do land a couple of mentions in the book. Here’s a companion piece to one of them.

Whenever someone tells me they’re worried about whether we’ll be good in time for their kids to love the Vols, I think about Steve Hamer.

It’s a real question, I’m sure. My own children – one now almost four, the other just past her first birthday – are still a bit too young for this game, though it’s one the adults in their world would barely recognize. My son’s first semi-internalized connection with success for Tennessee came via this baseball season, a stunning upset on the athletic department leaderboard when he was born. The day we brought him home from the hospital, Tennessee lost to Georgia 41-0. In his tiny lifetime, our basketball team has three wins at Rupp Arena, and our football team is 17-26 with an average margin of defeat of I’m-not-looking-that-up.

My dad, who is the first person responsible for me sitting at this keyboard punching letters about the Vols, took me to my first game when I was five. We weren’t great in 1986, and actually lost to Army that day. But the year before, I hear we did alright. Five years old for my son will be next fall. It’s strange, but for me suddenly the Orange & White Game next spring is a significant event again. There’s the sense that we have to get him there, get him started.

I’m not sure how much ground Josh Heupel can make up in a year, but there’s a part of introducing our kids to Tennessee football that feels like it should come with a warning: “This might sting a little, but it’s for your own good.”

And it’s not a new question in 2021 or 2022. Even as far back as 2006 – which seems silly now – those of us wanting to pass something significant on to the next generation have been looking for those moments that have a chance to become memories.

But no matter how many of them we do or don’t produce this fall, or into the next few years, Steve Hamer gives me comfort. Because those of us who grew up during the best of times for Tennessee football simultaneously experienced the worst of times for Tennessee basketball.

The Vols made the NCAA Tournament six out of seven years from 1977-1983.

And then Tennessee made one of the next 14 tournaments.

That one was no prize: a 16-point loss in the 7/10 game to West Virginia in 1989, the last one of Don DeVoe’s tenure.

I was seven years old when that happened. The next time Tennessee made the dance, I was 16.

I see a thought that goes around from time to time that you gravitate towards whatever team in your life was best when you were ten years old. It’s why my generation, especially those of us with the Vols/Braves combo, has had such a hard time with the last 13 years. That kind of math also starts putting an internal clock on Tennessee’s own success: “We’ve got x years to get this turned around, or I’ll lose my kids forever!”

Basketball was and is my favorite sport. I caught the tail end of Larry Bird’s career, but it was enough to keep me invested in the Celtics even when nothing good was walking through that door for a while after that.

But at Tennessee?

Wade Houston replaced Don DeVoe, and his son Allan got buckets. But the team struggled: 16-14 in his first year, 12-22 (3-15) his second. They improved to 19-15 (8-8) in year three, but lost four of their last six games and again missed the NCAA Tournament.

I was ten years old that season, and watched my friends start looking around. Not even because they were bad ten-year-old fans, whatever that means. But because in basketball’s most important moments, Tennessee was never there to look at.

Meanwhile, other teams were becoming mythical creatures. You already had to deal with Kentucky as your biggest rival, freshly off probation and riding Jamal Mashburn and “The Unforgettables” to the Elite Eight. They fell there to Duke in the greatest game that’s ever been played; those Blue Devils had a trio of college basketball icons in Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, and Grant Hill.

And then that Duke team made it to the finals and faced the greatest threat to any young basketball Vol’s heart: the Fab Five.

Back when culture was a little more monolithic, change could be tracked almost overnight. And in fifth grade at Alcoa Elementary School and any gym I found myself in, black socks and baggy shorts appeared almost instantly.

It just became commonplace to say things like, “I like Tennessee, and then in the tournament I cheer for __________________.” That sentence had a “but” in it at one time, I’m sure. But by the early 90s, it was just accepted that you’d gravitate towards someone in March, because Tennessee was never an option.

It happened to me too: I went toward UCLA because I loved their colors. Some of these decisions got made via the pages of the Eastbay catalog, flipping through to see whose shorts you could get in the mail. When Allan Houston was taken 11th in the 1993 NBA Draft – 11th! That’s really good! – you saw far, far more jerseys in the Knoxville adolescent demo for Chris Webber and, in what should’ve been basketball blasphemy, Penny Hardaway.

And when Houston graduated, the Vols went 5-22 (2-14) in 1994. We lost to Arkansas-Little Rock by 10 in Knoxville, then Western Carolina by seven. My parents gave up two of our four season tickets because I don’t think we went to a single game. My UCLA shorts did win a title the next year though.

Kevin O’Neill arrived; new coach, kids are playing hard, etc. But his first team hit a 1-9 stretch in the middle of SEC play to finish 11-16 (4-12). Kentucky beat us by 19 in Lexington and 20 in Knoxville, two of 11 consecutive wins in the series, eight of which came by at least 15 points.

You can hope, and you can dream, and then at some point you have to see it. But the “it” you have to see isn’t a national championship or even a tournament appearance.

The “it” just needs to be moving forward.

I think about this often for Josh Heupel, because I’ve lived so many days of thinking about it for Jeremy Pruitt and Butch Jones. Some of the most valuable Saturdays for a fanbase are those first steps forward. Neither of them were able to stick the landing in year one. But ask any Tennessee fan to name their favorite Saturdays of the last ten years, and once they get done talking about 2016? They’re going to mention those Smokey Grays against Georgia. And we didn’t even win.

Steve Hamer was the best player on some of the worst Tennessee basketball teams, including the 1994 squad that went 5-22. In his senior year, the Vols battled for .500.

You had to get there to make the NIT. And Tennessee ping-ponged around it all season. These weren’t NCAA Tournament dreams. These were forward progress dreams.

The Vols lost the last two games of the regular season to land at 13-13 (6-10), meaning they had to win one game in the SEC Tournament to qualify for the NIT. The Vols played Alabama in the late night game in New Orleans.

And Steve Hamer went for 31 points and 21 rebounds, the latter still an SEC Tournament record. And we won.

I love using “we” to describe Tennessee. Always have. I’ve done little for the university, other than perhaps contribute some language to their standards on academic probation. We pay for season tickets and I try to make sense of it on the keyboard. Any ownership of their success or failure is mythical.

But they’re my team. And that night remains one of my favorite memories: Tennessee, in basketball, winning when it mattered. Moving it forward.

It wasn’t a straight line, of course: O’Neill left for Northwestern a year later. Jerry Green would become his own special brand of roller coaster. But he got the Vols in the NCAA Tournament just two years after Steve Hamer’s night. And the year after that, we beat Kentucky in Knoxville on the last day of the regular season to win the SEC East, and enter the NCAA Tournament as a four seed.

And now kids were wearing our shorts.

You don’t have to get all the way there. You just need to believe you might be on the way to something good.

Just enough hope to bring you back, because what ultimately brings us back to sports isn’t winning anyway. It’s the thing itself, not how often it wins, that really does it for us in football. There’s less pageantry and fewer people in basketball, but the idea’s the same: that’s our team. We don’t pass on wins to our children; I don’t think they’ll make the connection to what they didn’t experience for themselves. But I think we can pass on the experience itself.

And some of those most memorable days can come in those first steps forward.

Roots of Eden is available now at Amazon.

How often have the Vols scored 40+ points in the post-Fulmer era?

As first impressions go, Josh Heupel probably couldn’t ask for a better opener among FBS foes. Bowling Green went 0-5 in the MAC last season, losing by an average margin of 45-11. Only UMass was worse in SP+ last season, and the Falcons are 125th in 2021 preseason SP+ projections.

Of course, it’s not just that the last time we saw both Bowling Green and UMass, they almost beat us. There was plenty of, “Finally, a cupcake opener!” for Georgia State just two years ago. You never know.

But there’s at least a chance Josh Heupel’s Vols put up something ridiculous in week one. That would lead us straight into the overreaction trap for the first real temperature check of his tenure just nine days later. Pitt’s a story for another day. For now, if the Vols do throw out a big number on Bowling Green to open the Josh Heupel era, it would certainly look and feel different than what we’ve seen recently.

In the post-Fulmer era, the Vols have scored 40+ points in regulation vs an FBS opponent 22 times in 12 years. Ten of those belong to Josh Dobbs; seven more to Tyler Bray. Jonathan Crompton did it twice in the back half of 2009.

Two of the other three involved weirdness: Western Kentucky’s “let’s turn it over on every play!” strategy in 2013, which helped Butch Jones get off to a nice start in his second game. And South Carolina two years ago, when the Vols scored 41 points by way of two special teams touchdowns. That leaves Vanderbilt last year as the final example, when the Vols did get a pick six from Bryce Thompson (and also, it was 2020 Vanderbilt).

Between Dobbs and that special teams flourish against South Carolina two years ago, Tennessee rode the struggle bus hard. In regulation, the Vols never even scored 30 points against FBS competition in 2017. They did it only once in 2018, again aided by a defensive score, in the signature win at Auburn (30). And in 2019, they scored 30+ against Georgia State (30), South Carolina (41), and UAB (30).

So, bump it up to 31+ points, and 2019 South Carolina is the only time the Vols hit that mark vs an FBS foe in regulation for three straight years.

This is one reason that early start felt so good last year: 31 points at South Carolina, 35 against Mizzou. Obviously neither of those teams were world-beaters, but Tennessee’s offense got the job done against middle-tier SEC East teams in a way it did not in the previous three seasons. And then, of course, it did not for the rest of the non-Vanderbilt schedule last fall.

This is perhaps the silverest of linings for Josh Heupel’s brand of football this year: Tennessee has been so bad on offense the last four years, it won’t take much to make us feel good. And nothing feels better in football than points.

So man, 40+, even on Bowling Green, would feel really good compared to what we’ve seen recently. Hit 50+, and that’s only been done vs FBS in regulation 10 times post-Fulmer (half of those are Dobbs).

And 60+? That’s been done once, and done in part because Josh Heupel was on the other sideline: in 2016, Tennessee beat Missouri 63-37 in a game featuring 1,349 total yards, and the Tigers running 110 total plays.

I don’t know exactly what will happen against Bowling Green, who the quarterback will be, or if he can find a way to add his name to the list with Crompton, Bray, and Dobbs over the last 13 years.

But I think there’s a chance we could have some fun right away.

Here’s the full list:

Tennessee 40+ Points (vs FBS in regulation) Post-Fulmer

  • 2020 Vanderbilt: 42
  • 2019 South Carolina: 41
  • 2016 Virginia Tech: 45
  • 2016 Kentucky: 49
  • 2016 Missouri: 63
  • 2015 Bowling Green: 59
  • 2015 Kentucky: 52
  • 2015 Vanderbilt: 53
  • 2015 Northwestern: 45
  • 2014 South Carolina: 45 (42 in regulation)
  • 2014 Kentucky: 50
  • 2014 Iowa: 45
  • 2013 Western Kentucky: 52
  • 2012 Akron: 47
  • 2012 Georgia: 44
  • 2012 Troy: 55
  • 2011 Cincinnati: 45
  • 2011 Buffalo: 41
  • 2010 Memphis: 50
  • 2010 Ole Miss: 52
  • 2009 Georgia: 45
  • 2009 Memphis: 56

ESPN’s FPI gets crowded in the middle in the SEC

It’s July 9, which means we’re still deep in the land of power rankings and projections. Phil Steele’s mammoth magazine usually provides some off-season content, but one of the biggest red flags for me personally is how little Tennessee shows up in it at all this year. Stay tuned.

The most fun you can have with these things is projected win totals, both for the expectations conversation and comparing yourself to your peers. ESPN updated their FPI rankings and projected win totals this week, and of note in the SEC:

  • 11 wins: Alabama
  • 10 wins: Georgia, Texas A&M
  • 9 wins: Florida
  • 7 wins: Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Missouri

That’s a lot in the middle. Like, a lot a lot.

Seven teams projected to hit the same number is the most for any power five conference. And the spectrum is a little short of what it actually could be, from Auburn’s 7.2 projected wins to Missouri’s 6.5. These are regular season win totals, so your theoretical seven wins could become eight in one of the SEC’s group of six bowls.

It’s surprisingly balanced, at least to me, for the SEC: four teams from the West, three from the East. And depending on your take of Auburn’s trip to Penn State on September 18, it’s not a projection of seven wins because any of these teams face insurmountable odds in a non-conference game. Kentucky and Ole Miss both play Louisville, LSU opens in the Rose Bowl, Mississippi State hosts NC State, the Vols host Pitt, and Mizzou is at Boston College.

There’s a long-standing joke about parity in the ACC Coastal, and that league does offer the closest comparison in FPI:

  • 12 wins: Clemson
  • 9 wins: Miami, North Carolina
  • 7 wins: Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Louisville, NC State, Virginia

No other league has more than four teams projected to hit the same number. And Tennessee’s other SEC East contemporaries are further down the list: South Carolina at five wins, Vanderbilt at four (and Arkansas at six to round out the league).

I’m sure some of these SEC teams will hit eight wins and some six. But the actual projection is one that Tennessee would take: a 7-5 regular season with a (theoretical) chance to get to eight wins via one of those group of six bowls would represent the best on-paper year one for any Tennessee coach since Fulmer. It continues to appear from a distance that so much of Tennessee’s final record will come down to what they do against the group of teams in this same projection range, which means we’ll get more meaningful action right away with Pitt, Missouri, South Carolina, and Ole Miss all on the schedule in the first seven Saturdays.

Not Long Enough

One of the conversations I’ve encountered most in these last few weeks is how we’ve become accustomed to bad news following good. We’re living a bit of it right now until Tony Vitello signs an extension. It’s not just that football has trended down over 13 years…it’s that none of those 13 seasons found a way to live on in our memories. It’s something we wrote about when the Butch Jones era looked like it was headed for the off-ramp after a 41-0 loss to Georgia in 2017: you can create a moment in any season, but ultimately the season itself has to be considered a success for that moment to last.

Tennessee’s baseball team created plenty of moments this year, including a walk-off grand slam that should be talked about by anyone following Tennessee baseball a decade from now. We haven’t been doing this long enough to know how true, “Any season that ends in Omaha is a good one,” is. It does make me think about what the basketball equivalent might be.

The way we perceive basketball is a funny thing. The Vols have advanced to the Sweet 16 six times since 2000 (28.5% of the tournaments played in that span), and five times since 2007 (35.7%). You’d like to see that number climb towards 50%, a number elite programs tend to hit. But the Vols have also had the misfortune of going 1-5 in those Sweet 16 games, losing three times as the higher seed. Those finishes, and their inability to reach a round that would automatically be defined as success, can leave a slightly sour aftertaste.

The one time the Vols did break through to the Elite Eight did come a couple years after the football program entered exile in 2010, and is probably my favorite team to write about as long as I’ve been doing this. That season will live forever, both in individual moments and the whole. But they had the misfortune on the calendar of being followed by the investigation into their head coach just five months later, and the termination of said coach at the end of the following season. Cuonzo Martin’s run to the Sweet 16 was followed by his exit within the month. Rick Barnes’ best team and most memorable win are slightly burdened by a 20-point loss to Auburn within 24 hours.

So even in a sport where things have gone overwhelmingly well in the last 15 years, with real and regular opportunities to make history, it feels like even the things we’ve truly celebrated never last quite long enough.

Still, the most valuable thing for Tennessee is the opportunity. The basketball team is going to be in the hunt. The football team used to be, even through 2007. The baseball team could be in the future.

In the midst of those opportunities, there will always be misses. There are plenty from 1989-2007 in football, and trust me, those hurt more too. Seasons with little-to-no-regrets – 1989, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2004 – are outnumbered by seasons with great wins and tough losses. That’s the nature of the beast. There are roller coaster years like 1990 or 2007 that ultimately ended in satisfaction. There are individual wins so great, like the turning-30 Miracle at South Bend, that define entire seasons. And there is disappointment, to be sure, when some of the best moments were followed by some of the hardest; the two Saturdays in December 2001 that defined much of the post-1998 Fulmer conversation turn 20 themselves this fall.

That’s the beauty of sports: it’s all opportunity. You’ll win and you’ll lose. We’ve grown accustomed to there not being enough distance between the one and the other. But the opportunities we want are there in basketball and, hopefully, baseball. And a new coach will get a chance to chase his own starting this fall.

Hope, Good Things, etc.

Tennessee’s season came to an end in Omaha yesterday, a second loss in two chances at the College World Series. There’s a significant percentage of this conversation that now has to wait, holding its breath for Tony Vitello and Danny White to emerge at the same press conference instead of in two different locations. We’ll see.

But in the ways one’s season can come to an end in college baseball, you always prefer Nebraska. Especially when you haven’t seen anything like it in 16 years.

When a fanbase is molded by a football team that chases the biggest prize every year and reinforced by a women’s basketball team that wins it eight times, it’s easier for other sports to carry an unnecessary burden. Rick Barnes isn’t the first men’s basketball coach whose teams felt undue angst over a regular season loss. Bruce Pearl’s Elite Eight squad generated some of those questions too, even when losing to ranked opponents.

Pearl’s first team, now 15 years ago, is probably the closest comparison to what Tony Vitello is doing right now. They lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament as a two seed, but that individual defeat to Wichita State is probably Tennessee’s least painful exit in March of my lifetime. It wasn’t just that we were happy to be there. It was that, in the moment, we could believe we’d be there from now on.

Not the Sweet 16 or Omaha every year, no one does that. But to be in the hunt, in the conversation every year? That can be done. And that’s a gift. Because no one wins the whole thing every single year – not Bama, not Pat Summitt, no one – so I think the chase becomes the healthiest goal. We know we’re in the chase with Rick Barnes. We’ve been in the chase in softball for a long time now. And that’s the hope this baseball team produced: not a one-off story, but an opening chapter.

And man, what a great chapter it was. When Drew Gilbert hit that walk-off grand slam against Wright State, I leapt in our bedroom. Like, “Watch the ceiling fan, don’t wake up the kids,” leapt. For Tennessee baseball.

I’ve got clothing with the word “Omaha” on it. Lindsey Nelson Stadium will always have 2021 on it. This team will be remembered forever regardless. But they also have a chanced to be linked to a much larger story.

Make no mistake: the losses will probably hurt more from here. That’s part of the deal. It’s hard to equate it in football, because in that sport the losses that tended to hurt Tennessee most came in September or October. Not everyone has to lose their last game, though we’re headed more in that direction with the playoff.

Basketball again provides some context. Sometimes you still just get beat by a better team, as happened to Bruce Pearl’s squad a couple years later in 2008. Sometimes you lose in heartbreaking fashion, but then get to avenge it a few years later (see: Ohio State). And some of those losses just linger in the fog of “what if”, watching the bracket fall apart around you and dreaming about the kind of run you could’ve made in 2000 or 2018.

Baseball will take all that and include far more volatility, even in a double elimination format. There are no secrets or surprises in building the bracket: the best teams will always rise to the top over a long regular season. But once you’re there, it doesn’t take much to turn the whole thing sideways. A hot pitcher, an umpire’s call, a ball inches from being fair instead of foul. Right now there are six teams left standing in Omaha. The two left in the winner’s bracket are unseeded and #7. #4 Vanderbilt faces elimination today; #2 Texas will face it again tomorrow. Arkansas, as you know, didn’t even make it.

You can’t predict it. But you can be in it. The hunt is what you hope for. And I’m grateful to this baseball team for giving it to us.

Omaha: How close are we now?

Tennessee’s last three trips to Omaha went like this:

  • 1995: The #5 overall seed had Todd Helton and R.A. Dickey, and beat Clemson in the opening game. Then they ran into one of the clearest cases of, “Yep, that team’s better than us,” in any of Tennessee’s postseason history: #1 seed Cal State Fullerton beat the Vols 11-1. Tennessee rebounded to win 6-2 over Stanford in the loser’s bracket, which brought them back to Fullerton, where they fell 11-0 in the rematch. Cal State then won it all by beating Southern Cal 11-6.
  • 2001: The Vols won at #7 East Carolina in the super regional to advance to Omaha. Back in the, “These bats might actually kill someone,” days, the Vols fell to Miami 21-13 in the opening game in Omaha, then had the pleasure of eliminating Georgia 19-12 in the loser’s bracket. The Vols took out #3 Southern Cal next to again be one of the last four teams standing. And again, they were vanquished by the eventual champs: Miami won 12-6, then beat Stanford 12-1 to win it all.
  • 2005: The Vols had no trouble coming out of Lindsey Nelson in their regional, but caught #2 Georgia Tech in the super regionals…where the Vols swept the Jackets in Atlanta. That was as good as it got: a 6-4 loss to Florida in the opening round in Omaha, then eliminated by Arizona State 4-2.

So three wins in Omaha, or advancing to the championship series in the current format, is the next bar for the 2021 Vols to clear in terms of school history. With Arkansas out, the Vols enter the field as the second-highest-seeded team.

So this is all great fun and will be no matter where we go from here. But make no mistake: we’re closer to the throne than we often get. There’s a real opportunity here.

In football, of course, the Vols won it all in 1998, and were 30 minutes away from another shot at it in 2001. In the last 20 years, the Vols went into November in the back half of the Top 10 in 2003, 2004, and 2006, but losses, injuries, and an unfortunate three-way-tie for the SEC East in ’03 meant they never really got close to the prize.

In men’s basketball, Tennessee has been among the last eight standing only once, now 11 years ago in 2010. The extended feelings we’re feeling right now in baseball would really require a trip to the Final Four to replicate, since making the Elite Eight by winning the Sweet 16 requires you to turn around and play 48 hours later. The 2019 Vols were the #5 overall seed and an overtime + Ryan Cline away from the Elite Eight, but would’ve faced eventual national champion Virginia; the route and the obstacles seemed more challenging than what awaits in Omaha.

The Lady Vols won Pat Summitt’s seventh and eighth titles in 2007 and 2008. Holly Warlick’s 2014 squad was the last to earn a #1 seed, but fell in the Sweet 16. The Lady Vols actually advanced to the Elite Eight in each of the next two years, but fell to #1 seed Maryland in 2015 and as a #7 seed in 2016. They’ve probably been closer than anything on the men’s side with the possible exception of the 2019 Rick Barnes squad, but I’m not sure if they ever felt like they could win it all given the top-heavy nature of women’s college basketball.

It’s softball that’s been closest to the promised land before this: seven trips to the Women’s College World Series in 11 years from 2005-2015, 60 feet away from the title in 2007, and back in the championship series in 2013. They fell to Oklahoma in 12 innings in game one, and were shut out in game two. That, now eight years ago, is the closest Tennessee has been in any of the big five sports since the Lady Vols won it all in 2007-08. Tennessee’s last trip to the WCWS in 2015 ended immediately with two straight losses.

I would argue this baseball team is as close to a national championship as any big five Tennessee sport has been since 2013 softball. Lady Vol basketball would’ve still had a UConn problem had they reached the Final Four in 2015-16. The 2019 men’s team went out with 16 teams left, and would’ve had to beat Virginia even if that Purdue game went the other way. And there’s no remote comparison at the moment in football.

So yeah. Happy to be here. But there’s more happiness out there yet.

Go Vols.

A 12-team playoff through the eyes of Tennessee’s history

So it looks like we’re going to 12, though there will be some weeping and gnashing of teeth over going higher than eight. (And some additional tears for quarterfinal rounds keeping bowls on life support instead of more games on campus.)

Tennessee, of course, is a long, long way from any playoff conversation. But perhaps one way to learn how you’d actually feel about 12 teams is to run it back through our happier days, to see what difference it might’ve made in our glory days. A big thanks to College Poll Archive for facilitating the fun.

If the field was 12 teams (Top 6 conference champions + Top 6 at-large, rankings using AP, BCS, and CFP polls), how often would the Vols have played for it all?

1989: In, first round game in Knoxville. Three-way-tie for the SEC title with the 11-1 Vols, Alabama, and Auburn, but at #8 in the final regular season AP poll, Tennessee is in either way.

1990: In. SEC Champions at the end of a very strange and wildly enjoyable 8-2-2 campaign.

1991: In. Here’s a good example of how a season might be remembered differently: the ’91 Vols are basically thought of as the Miracle at South Bend team, and that’s about it. But they would’ve squeaked into the playoffs at #10.

1992: Bubble until mid-November. The Johnny Majors-Phillip Fulmer drama would’ve included a fall from what felt like playoff certainty in early October to a hill too steep to climb after three straight losses. Still, another theme emerges for the first time here: even outside the Top 12, if you can win the SEC East, you get a chance to dramatically improve your fate in Atlanta. In 1992, the Vols were alive for Atlanta until mid-November, when Georgia beat Auburn and Florida escaped South Carolina.

1993: In, first round game in Knoxville. The ol’ “Best Vol squad of the 90s in SP+” would’ve not only made the field, but hosted a first round game at #6 in the final regular season AP poll. No season would’ve had its fate more drastically altered; this group would’ve gone to the playoff feeling like a legit national championship contender.

1994: Out

1995: In, first round game in Knoxville. Couldn’t earn a first round bye since the Gators won the SEC, but the #4 Vols are in easily.

1996: In. That Memphis loss stings a little less now eh?

1997: In, first round bye. No worries with Michigan and Nebraska both going undefeated.

1998: In, first round bye. Obviously.

1999: In, first round game in Knoxville. In the, “You made the regular season less meaningful!” camp: Tennessee’s 1999 loss to Arkansas took them out of the national championship picture. In a 12-team playoff, it would’ve cost them basically zero: the Vols were still #5 in the final regular season BCS standings.

2000: Out

2001: In, first round game in Knoxville. Tennessee’s loss to LSU in the SEC Championship Game moves from the most heartbreaking Saturday of our lives to, “Oh man, now we have to play an extra game.”

2002: Out

2003: In, first round game in Knoxville. Here’s another season that looks very different in a 12-team playoff. The Vols finished eighth in the final regular season BCS standings at 10-2, got hosed into the Peach Bowl, then tried to fight Clemson for an hour and lost thanks to 134521087 penalties. But in a 12-team playoff, not only is Casey Clausen’s final team in, they’re hosting.

2004: Bubble until Atlanta. The Vols finished 15th in the BCS after losing to undefeated Auburn in Atlanta, but that’s obviously a win-and-you’re-in scenario.

2005: Out

2006: Bubble until mid-November. Instead of the loss to LSU being the one that cost the Vols, it would’ve been the next one at Arkansas that took Tennessee out.

2007: Bubble until Atlanta. Same as 2004, win in Atlanta and you’re in.

The Vols, of course, would’ve been out from 2008-2015. Even that 2015 squad, who played so many great teams so close, was too far behind to catch up. The 2016 squad would’ve been on the bubble until mid-November, when Florida’s win over LSU knocked the Vols out of Atlanta. Then back to spectating from 2017 to the present day.

So pros: the Vols are in 11 times in 15 years from 1989-2003. They only earn first-round byes in 1997 and 1998 thanks to Steve Spurrier, but do host a first round game six times. And they’re technically in the national championship conversation deep into 2004 and 2007, years that otherwise could only shoot for the division title by then.

And cons: those division titles end up meaning pretty much nothing, though much of that is because of who Tennessee was as a program by that point. Instead of 2004 and 2007 feeling like a disappointment, Tennessee just misses the playoffs in 2004, 2006, and 2007 after making it 11 of 15 times prior. That, of course, is the same hot seat for Phillip Fulmer in 2008; mileage will always vary, but I’m not sure this new scenario will automatically lead to more job security for everyone.

Asking if this scenario increases or diminishes Tennessee’s legacy would be entirely dependent on what those Vols did in those hypothetical playoffs. But I think it’s safe to say it can keep all kinds of teams in the conversation for much longer…and it can diminish all other accomplishments.

The best news for Tennessee coming into what will be a landscape-shifting moment for how we define success in college football: we haven’t had much by any definition in 14 years. So while this kind of shift may not automatically make life any easier for someone like Kirby Smart, any kind of success – stealing an SEC East title, just hanging around the conversation, or being one of those teams that makes someone say, “You know, we used to have better teams here in the Outback Bowl…”…it’s all forward progress from here.

What does regular success look like in baseball?

The baseball Vols are deep in our hearts now, the general joy of advancing to the program’s first super regional since 2005, and the specific atom bomb of Drew Gilbert’s walk-off grand slam against Wright State to begin that journey last weekend. Baseball may not earn the crowds or the currency of men’s basketball, but this team is already making you feel the feels in ways only the Grant Williams/Admiral Schofield group did, both in terms of dramatic wins and the opportunity to advance. As we pointed out before the regional, a #3 national seed puts this baseball team in territory no big five sport on campus has entered since the Lady Vols were a #1 seed in 2014.

Between winning the East and advancing to the super regional, these Vols have already achieved their share of history. Get through LSU this weekend, and they’d become just the fifth Vol squad to ever advance to Omaha, and likewise the first since 2005. The present is glorious, and the future likewise so long as the Vols can keep their shoved-a-fan-but-in-the-good-way coach.

The strength of the SEC makes Tony Vitello’s accomplishments even more significant. It also provides some context for what kind of fun we might expect every summer, and how to set healthy benchmarks for Tennessee’s program.

Making the NCAA Tournament itself is a regular expectation; nine SEC programs made the field of 64 this year. Hosting a regional requires a Top 16 seed; six SEC teams accomplished that this year, plus South Carolina by way of Old Dominion’s lacking facilities. Under Vitello, the Vols played in the Chapel Hill region in 2019 before hosting this year.

Anything can happen in the regional, but the cream tends to rise to the top. So while you can’t always use, “How far did they advance?” as the best benchmark in March Madness, in baseball it’s a fair comparison, especially in the SEC. The current super regional format came into play in 1999; in these last 22 years, here’s how often SEC programs have advanced.

Super Regional appearances (since 1999)

  • 15: LSU (last in 2021)
  • 13: South Carolina (2018)
  • 10: Florida (2018), Mississippi State (2021), Vanderbilt (2021)
  • 9: Arkansas (2021)
  • 8: Texas A&M (2017)
  • 7: Ole Miss (2021)
  • 4: Georgia (2008)
  • 3: Alabama (2010), Auburn (2019), Tennessee (2021)
  • 1: Kentucky (2017)
  • 0: Missouri

You can see a break between essentially a top half and bottom half of the league from Ole Miss on up, though Auburn made the College World Series in 2019 and, of course, the Vols are currently two wins away. No one is getting to this weekend every year, and at best it’s done two-thirds of the time. That helps me appreciate where the Vols are right now even more. Advancing to the round of 16 becomes somewhat of a similar benchmark for Tennessee’s men’s basketball and baseball programs: if you’re doing it right, you get this far more often than you don’t.

College World Series appearances (since 1999)

  • 8: Florida (last in 2018), LSU (2017)
  • 6: Arkansas (2019), South Carolina (2012)
  • 4: Georgia (2008), Mississippi State (2019), Vanderbilt (2019)
  • 3: Texas A&M (2017)
  • 2: Tennessee (2005)
  • 1: Alabama (1999), Auburn (2019), Ole Miss (2014)
  • 0: Kentucky, Missouri

In the last decade, half the league made the College World Series multiple times. Six of those teams have made at least one appearance in the last three fields in Omaha. The best of this league is getting to Omaha 36% of the time overall; again, “We should get to Omaha every year,” is an unrealistic goal. But the idea that every player who steps on your campus should have a chance to go during their time wearing the orange? That’s a good promise.

National Championships (since 1999)

  • Florida (2017)
  • LSU (2000, 2009)
  • South Carolina (2010, 2011)
  • Vanderbilt (2014, 2019)

Six of the last 11 national championships have come home to the SEC. Consider this list doesn’t include Arkansas, current #1 and with six trips to Omaha since 1999. Or Mississippi State, with 10 super regional appearances in the last 22 years. This league is deep.

One thing at a time, of course, though the #3 Vols have plenty of opportunity ahead of them. Get through to the super regionals more often than not, give all your players the real possibility of getting to Omaha at least once during their time…and once you’re there, who knows what could happen…

Best chance to win it all since…

In today’s NCAA Baseball Tournament bracket reveal, the Vols were the #3 overall seed. They’ll host an opening regional against Duke, Liberty, and Wright State, with a chance to advance at host a super regional against the team coming out of the Oregon regional. Tony Vitello took the Vols to the North Carolina regional in 2019, where they were vanquished by the Tar Heels. Before that, Tennessee’s last NCAA Tournament appearance was way back in 2005.

Those Vols were the #15 overall seed back then, but took down #2 Georgia Tech in the super regional to advance to the College World Series. In 2001 the Vols likewise went on the road in the super regionals, defeating East Carolina to advance to Omaha. You have to go back to the Todd Helton days in 1995 to find the Vols hosting the equivalent of a super regional; when that team advanced to Omaha they were seeded #5 overall.

So, at least in your bracket, this isn’t just a strong statement from Tony Vitello in his fourth year in Knoxville. This is Tennessee’s best on-paper chance to win it all in the modern era.

How does this opportunity translate on campus? Last week we looked at the relative difficulty of winning the SEC Tournament/Championship Game in the five major sports, something no one on campus has accomplished since the Lady Vols did it in basketball in 2014. That team represents the best on-paper chance any big five team has had to win it all until now, a #1 seed in an NCAA Tournament with the Final Four set for Nashville…but they were bounced by Maryland in the Sweet 16. They made it farther in the bracket the next two years, but fell in the Elite Eight as a #2 seed in 2015 and a #7 seed in 2016.

The softball team last made the Women’s College World Series in 2015 as the #8 overall seed. Their highest overall seed came in 2007 at #5 overall, the year they advanced to the finals and were a heartbeat away from winning the whole thing before falling to Arizona. They were also national runners-up in 2013 as the #7 seed; while the 2014 Lady Vol basketball squad had a better chance on paper, the 2013 softball team is as close as any big five Tennessee squad has come to a national championship once everything played out.

In men’s basketball, in 2019 the Vols were a #2 seed and fifth overall on the seed list. It’s the third time Tennessee has earned a #2 seed in the last 15 years, with the Vols still in search of their first Final Four and second Elite Eight.

What’s the closest comparison in football? Preseason polls are worth little, but the Vols did open the 2005 season at #3. On the field, Tennessee of course won the whole thing in 1998 and came close to playing for another one in 2001, second in the BCS going to the SEC Championship Game. Tennessee hasn’t carried any real opportunity for the national championship into November since 2006, or into October since 2016.

All that to say this: I’m not sure what’s going to happen from here, and this baseball team has already given us plenty coming out of the pandemic. But whatever a bracket is worth, this baseball team has the best chance to advance on paper of any major sport here since the Lady Vols in 2014. Only the Lady Vols can compete with this kind of national seed on campus in the last 20 years; it’s the best on-paper opportunity the baseball team has ever had, and an even better seed than the softball team was ever given.

The Vols are already a great story. But make no mistake: this is a real opportunity.