Author Archives: Will Shelton

SEC Basketball Preview: A Good Harvest

How do you measure the strength of this league?

For the SEC, the national answer has long been associated with what kind of year Kentucky is having first. I’m not sure how much oomph Florida still gets for its back-to-back national championships, now 15+ years ago, but the Gators have carried the banner at times as well.

2006 is a number that matches up well for both the league and Tennessee, with Bruce Pearl’s arrival carrying us into an era of greater success. And since that time, the SEC has had eight teams finish in the KenPom Top 5. That’s always met with varying ultimate success in a single elimination sport. But Florida and Kentucky traded off opportunities at the top: the Gators obviously had Top 5 KenPom teams in 2006 and 2007. John Calipari’s first Kentucky team with John Wall and Demarcus Cousins finished fourth in 2010. Kentucky won it all in 2012 and was two games away in 2015. And between those two years, Florida went 32-4 in the SEC, finishing in the KenPom Top 5 in 2013 and 2014.

The Cats were back in this hunt in 2017, finishing fourth. But since then, the balance of power has shifted. It’s a convenient timetable for us, as the Vols returned to the national scene in 2018. But we haven’t come alone.

In the last four seasons, no SEC team has finished in the KenPom Top 5; no national superpower to sway perception. But the league has found the size of its top tier increasing dramatically.

Since 2006, the SEC has had 3+ teams finish in the KenPom Top 20 just four times:

  • Three in 2012: Kentucky’s national championship season also featured a more youthful version of the Florida teams that would dominate the next two years; the Gators were a 7 seed but made it to the Elite Eight. And this was the last great Vanderbilt team (Jenkins, Taylor, Ezeli), now a decade old.
  • Three in 2014: The value of getting hot late. Florida ran through the league undefeated, the best team in the land before falling in the Final Four. Kentucky was an eight seed, but they made it all the way to the title game before also Shabazz Napiered. And the Vols barely got in via Dayton, then almost made the Elite Eight. That triumvirate all finished in the Top 15 in KenPom; the next best SEC squad was Arkansas at 44th.
  • Four in 2019: Tennessee’s best team in KenPom had company: Kentucky was eighth, the Vols 10th, Auburn 11th, and LSU 19th in the 2018-19 season. We’re coming back to this point in just a moment.
  • Five in 2006: Florida wins it all, Big Baby’s LSU squad makes the Final Four via an overtime win against Rick Barnes and Texas, and the Vols surprise everyone by earning a #2 seed. Plus Arkansas and South Carolina finished 19th and 20th, the Gamecocks by way of two dominant performances in Madison Square Garden to win the NIT.

I’d argue the most interesting basketball for your league comes not from having one or two elite teams, but four or five really good teams. We saw in 2019 how many of those really good teams had a chance to advance deep into March. And heading into league play this year, we could be looking at the same thing.

Right now in KenPom: Tennessee, LSU, Kentucky, and Auburn go 9-12. And Alabama is 18th.

When we talk about playing Villanova or Arizona as a Sweet 16 or Elite Eight feel? Coming in, the Vols should get regular chances at those kind of games in league play too. And right away:

The bottom of the league isn’t great with Georgia and Missouri. The middle…well, I’m unsure how many teams are in the middle. I don’t know if the league will go five deep or eight deep in the NCAA Tournament.

And I’m not sure if one of the top tier teams in the league will separate themselves and earn a #1 seed. But that’s in part because those teams are going to see each other on such a regular basis.

And again, right away: on Wednesday, LSU is at Auburn at 7:00 PM, the Vols in Tuscaloosa at 9:00 PM. If you love SEC Basketball, this looks like an incredible year, one of the best of our lifetimes.

And Tennessee should be in the thick of it.

Tennessee 77 Arizona 73: Respect Your Elders

Arizona came into the game as the number one overall seed in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. The thought there is they had the best chance to put together the kind of resume that earned the top seed on Selection Sunday. I don’t know if they’re the best team in the land; the defending champs are still undefeated, Purdue and Gonzaga might have a say, etc. But they’ll have every opportunity to be in that conversation. And that’s still the case after tonight; they remain a one seed in the predictive bracketology. It is undoubtedly a team in the top line conversation.

Which, of course, makes it an incredibly impressive and valuable win for Tennessee. One that makes you believe they’ll have a chance to get one against anybody, and play their way towards that top line themselves.

It was a unique kind of win, one where you get the most fun part out of the way early. The Vols led 9-0 after three minutes and 16-2 two minutes after that. It was 22-7 at the under 12. I’m not convinced Tennessee did anything incredibly wrong from there. Arizona stopped being so generous, and started being Arizona.

But when they cut it to five with 1:42 to play in the half, Tennessee went nuclear: an and-one from John Fulkerson, a three from Santiago Vescovi, and a bucket from Kennedy Chandler, all in the final 1:02, pushed Tennessee’s lead back to 13 at the break. The Wildcats turned it over a dozen times in the first 20 minutes.

They only turned it over five times in the second 20 minutes, which is how an offense like theirs scores 21 points in the first half and 52 in the second.

In two minutes, the lead was down to five. Josiah-Jordan James took the lead here, splashing a three and following up with a two. A Vescovi trey pushed Tennessee’s advantage back to 12 a minute later.

A little more than a minute later, it was back down to four. In this stretch, Kerr Kriisa just started stepping into threes, and they loved him back. For an Arizona team that got four points from Christian Koloko and six from Azuolas Tubelis inside, Kriisa and Benedict Mathurin had to carry the load, and they were fully capable.

But again, James was there with a timely three. Vescovi added seven of his 15 points in this stretch.

And John Fulkerson started to heat up.

A Vescovi three made it 60-48 with 8:17 to go. By this point, you had to assume Arizona wasn’t going away. Koloko got his first points with seven minutes to play to cap another 7-0 spurt, cutting it to five. Fulkerson stopped the bleeding with an immediate answer.

The stretch Arizona will wonder about came next. Justin Kier hit a three to make it 62-60 with 6:12 to play. They got a steal, but missed the front end of a one-and-one. They did it again the next time down, but got the offensive rebound and Koloko tied it at 5:08. Kennedy Chandler hit one of two to make it 63-62 Vols. Kriisa missed a three, then Mathurin missed at the rim on their next two trips.

The talking point may become the quick technical foul assessed to Kriisa on the following possession, allowing Justin Powell to hit three of four free throws. But in the stretch preceding it, Arizona’s offense came up empty on three possessions with a chance to take the lead.

They’d never see it not because their offense continued to struggle, but because John Fulkerson took over in crunch time.

Kier hit a three with 3:59 to go to erase the advantage of Powell’s free throws, leaving the Vols again up by one. Fulkerson hit one of two at the line, then Mathurin hit both of his to tie it 67-67 with 2:58 to play. Fulky was there with a high-arcing turnaround to put the Vols back in front 69-67. And at this point, Tennessee was looking for him as their first option.

An Arizona turnover led to two Fulky free throws and a four-point lead with 2:15 to go. Tubelis scored to cut it to two. The Vols survived a missed three from Kriisa the next time down, another chance to take the lead. With a minute to go, Kennedy Chandler cleared it out.

It didn’t work. It didn’t work most of the night for Chandler, who went 2-of-14. But Fulky was there:

https://twitter.com/SteveOwnby/status/1473966494916743168

And to bring it full circle, the Vols got a spectacular block from Josiah-Jordan James and a steal from Kennedy Chandler on Arizona’s next trip, sealing the deal on the defensive end.

The result: a 77-73 win over #6 Arizona, the sixth Top 10 win for Rick Barnes at Tennessee (four over Kentucky plus #1 Gonzaga). The Vols took away Arizona’s size inside, largely by getting it into foul trouble: six points in 13 minutes for Tubelis, four in 19 for Koloko. The Vols, one of the least active teams in the nation it getting to the free throw line, shot 27 in this one; 12 from Fulkerson. And big John finished with 24 points, 10 rebounds, and only two turnovers.

There are going to be some teams that simply have no answer for Kennedy Chandler. We’re seeing, increasingly, that the very best teams we face will probably not be among them. There are going to be some nights when Tennessee’s shooters are on, and things look very easy. But the Vols hit just 7-of-24 (29.2%) in this one.

But best believe ole #10 can still be the reason we get one like this too. And getting one like this means you can believe the Vols can get one against anybody.

Tennessee vs Arizona Preview: The Real Test

Saturday was the game we had to win from a fan perspective; such is the nature of rivalry. And while the Tennessee/Memphis series seems destined for hiatus, the rivalry itself picked a mighty fine ending to sustain animosity for years to come. It seems our only hope of settling this one on the floor is in the NCAA Tournament, provided Memphis can actually make one.

Clearly, we lament the lost opportunity. But from a resume perspective, Wednesday was always the one to get.

That’s true for Arizona too, who on Tuesday morning was projected as the number one overall seed in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. After this one, the Wildcats go into Pac-12 play, where they will find compelling competition from UCLA and USC…but little elsewhere. If you’re making the case for Arizona as the best team in the land on Selection Sunday, a win in Knoxville to pair with the 83-79 victory at Illinois would be a key piece of the puzzle.

Meanwhile, the Vols will get plenty of other chances to beat Top 20 KenPom foes, with remaining games against Alabama, LSU (x2), Kentucky (x2), Auburn, and Texas. But, as noted, this might be the best team we play all year.

That they might indeed be the best in all the land is a large feather in the cap of Tommy Lloyd, who spent two decades as an assistant with Mark Few at Gonzaga. It surprised to me realize Sean Miller was at Zona for a dozen years; he took them to the Elite Eight in 2011, then again in 2014 and 2015. But in the last six years, they only made the Sweet 16 once, and self-imposed a tournament ban last season en route to Miller’s termination tied to the NCAA investigation. They were 17-9 (11-9) last year, 29th in KenPom.

They were 47th in this season’s opening projections. They leapt into the Top 30 via a 52-point beat down of North Dakota State. In Las Vegas, they beat Wichita State in overtime to face #4 Michigan. And they dropped the hammer in an 80-62 victory, getting 22 points from 7’1″ Christian Koloko.

In their first true road game, they beat Oregon State by 35. In their second, at Illinois, Koloko was held to four points. But they won anyway behind 30 from Bennedict Mathurin, an 83-79 victory to vault them into the Top 10 and the top lines of bracket conversations.

Lloyd has them looking like Gonzaga in their ability to put elite big men on the floor together and still run a modern offense. Gonzaga does this with Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren, who go even larger than the Rui Hachimura/Brandon Clarke combo we saw three Decembers ago. Arizona puts Koloko on the floor with 6’11” freshman Azuolas Tubelis, who will let one go from three. They’ll spell those guys with 7’0″ Oumar Ballo. And they’ll regularly put four guys on the floor at 6’6″+.

In doing all this, Arizona runs the third-fastest pace in college basketball, with the third-highest assist rate. And, as you might expect, these dudes make it very difficult to score at the rim.

It’s easier to tell you where they’ve been lucky than what they’ve been bad at, which is very little. Michigan shot 1-of-14 from the arc against them. Opposing teams are only hitting 61.3% of their free throws against them; Michigan and Illinois were both below 70%, but nothing crazy. The Illini went bombs away, knocking down 16-of-36 (44.4%) from the arc…and lost. Again, there’s a Gonzaga-like feel in looking at them, thinking you can play really well, and still get beat.

If there’s good news: Rick Barnes has had relative success against Gonzaga. His first two teams here were feisty in defeat to the Bulldogs. And, of course, Tennessee got the best of #1 Gonzaga three years ago in Phoenix, the best team the Vols have beaten in the KenPom era. That took a Herculean effort from Admiral Schofield; if Tennessee gets Arizona tomorrow, we may be talking about someone else in heroic fashion.

The best teams we’ve faced have gone on to lose to even better teams: Texas Tech to Gonzaga by 14, Villanova to Purdue by six and then Baylor by 21 (and then Creighton by 20, yikes). Our best win is North Carolina, who just got touched up by Kentucky 98-69. Colorado gets Kansas tonight; we’ll see if they can play their way above the bubble.

The SEC will provide a regular dose of, “How good are we?” But if you’re looking for the top-line conversation we thought we were having against Villanova, this one may be as close as we get all year. What can Tennessee do against one of the best and hottest teams in the land? How do the Vols, who played their best basketball of the year with three point guards on the floor against UNC, handle elite size? And if we do indeed have one of the best defenses in college basketball, what will it look like against this offense?

Much to learn here, and much to gain. Memphis will still be in the atmosphere this week. But Arizona will tell us much more about Tennessee.

Wednesday, 7:00 PM, ESPN2.

Go Vols.

Tennessee’s Recruiting Finish in Blue Chip Ratio

And so thus ends what we hope will be the strangest recruiting cycle of our lives. New coach not hired until January 27! First year of NIL! Unknown recruiting sanctions! A billion guys in the portal! 3-7 last year! 78-82 from 2008-2020!

At the end of all that…well, we really weren’t sure we were at the end of all that. Tennessee sought traction in Josh Heupel’s first year both on the field, and on the trail. The Vols found the former on October 2 against Missouri. The latter took until the final few weeks leading up to the early signing date.

But the results are another data point for what Heupel and his staff are building in Knoxville, and they include an incredible close with this class.

The Vols are currently 15th in the 247 Composite Rankings, but if you’ve been around here or spent time with us at SB Nation, you know what we like to value is blue chip ratio: what percentage of your signees are four-and-five star players? If you want to win a national championship, the answer needs to be 50% or better.

This staff’s finish included DL Tyre West, the highest-ranked player in the class. They also added RB Justin Williams, WR Kaleb Webb, and edge rushers James Pearce and Joshua Josephs, all four-stars. Those commitments in late November and December moved Tennessee’s class from three blue chip players to seven, giving Heupel’s first full class a ratio of 35%.

It’s not 50%, of course. But considering all of the above in the last year/last 14 years, it’s a good start by way of an excellent close.

In the 247 composite, here’s how Tennessee’s blue chip ratio stacks up in the post-Fulmer era:

YearBlue ChipsTotalRatio
202272035.0%
202161735.3%
2020132356.5%
2019122254.5%
201882236.4%
201752718.5%
2016102245.5%
2015162955.2%
2014163250.0%
201342317.4%
201292240.9%
201192733.3%
2010112740.7%
200992142.9%

Heupel turned in a class slightly better than Derek Dooley’s first full group in February 2011. There was certainly some instability then, but the Vols were also still just three years and change removed from Atlanta, instead of getting ready to celebrate a 15th anniversary.

More importantly, Heupel avoided a setback class. This happened at the beginning and end of the Butch Jones era. With the transition class of February 2013, Jones made up for it by landing Josh Dobbs and Cameron Sutton, then recruiting at or around a championship level in the next three classes.

But his last full class in February 2017 became part of the problem for Jeremy Pruitt. That group included Trey Smith, but the other blue chip signees either transferred or never panned out. Josh Palmer is buried in there as the 121st best WR in the class, and Josh Heupel and his staff got the best football from guys like Matthew Butler and Theo Jackson. You still need to get your evaluations right and get the most from the three stars you sign. But overall, a group like that can slow the development of your program. The transfer portal can cure some of what ails you here, but seems unlikely to solve all of one’s problems.

As this season went on, there was concern the Vols still might have to eat one of those years. But credit this staff for turning in a remarkable finish, and not falling any further behind in the talent race.

The next part, of course, is to take steps to move ahead. That too is no guarantee: in blue chip ratio, no one did it better than Pruitt (plus or minus McDonald’s bags, etc.). But talent doesn’t hurt.

In this department, the other interesting development from this class is elsewhere in the SEC East. Again, I’m not sure how much longer we’ll have an SEC East at all. But if Texas and Oklahoma are still playing in the Big 12 in 2022, there’s a chance they may actually be there until 2025 as the contracts currently state. If so, the kids who are being recruited now probably won’t see the Longhorns and the Sooners, which means the current format is the most relevant.

And in the current format, note the rise of Kentucky and Missouri.

The Cats sit 11th in the 247 rankings, with nine blue chip signees on 20 total (45%). Missouri is right behind them in 12th, with eight out of 16 (50%).

Kentucky’s blue chip ratio the year before: 22.2%. Mizzou’s: 8.3%.

This is year nine for Mark Stoops in Lexington, and the Cats are 9-3 heading to Orlando. After going 12-24 his first three years, he’s 46-29 in the last six. Our underlying assumptions – “They’re good, but not talented.” “They’re talented, but only this class.” – will be tested. Kentucky does not appear to be going anywhere.

As for Mizzou:

Eli Drinkwitz is clearly a good fit for the SEC if he’s trying to dunk on Dan Mullen and Florida. But their recruiting is no doubt an interesting development. It’s easy for us to brush this aside because we feel like we got right against them, and Heupel aced the initial test of getting past Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. But if Kentucky and Missouri continue to recruit like this, they won’t be the Kentucky and Missouri we know and love.

(South Carolina, by the way: four blue chip players on 22 commits, 18.2%.)

There’s a lot left to learn about Josh Heupel and recruiting. But his first step didn’t go backwards when there was more reason than ever for that to be the case, thanks to the kind of finish that would be successful anywhere in this league. And at the same time, this league does not appear to be getting any easier.

The 2023 class is mostly a blank slate, with four-star tight end Ethan Davis in the fold, also a piece of that December commit flourish. He joins three-star safety Jack Luttrell. And that’s it for now. The Vols still have some room to work in the transfer portal as well. We’ll see where it goes from here. But a good job by this staff giving us reason to believe it can indeed go forward.

Tennessee vs Memphis Preview: Rivalry RSVP

Sports are a regular reminder of the seasonal nature all things possess. Yet within them, there’s something that feels so constant. We’ve played Alabama every October since 1928. And if that number looks funny to you too, it’s because we’re coming up on the 100th consecutive such occasion, if you don’t count the minor inconvenience of World War II. We play Florida in September unless there’s a pandemic or a national tragedy. We’ve faced Kentucky in basketball every year since 1954. These are the games you want to win the most.

But none of our rivalries land so many punches on so few thrown, fists balled up or otherwise, than this one. Tennessee and Memphis have met a grand total of 27 times. Saturday will make 28. And we’re not sure when we’ll see 29.

For that, above all…we have to win this game.

We faced these stakes eight seasons ago, the last of eight in a row (plus one in Maui) featuring constant rhetoric from John Calipari and Josh Pastner. That set was tied 4-4 when the Tigers came to Knoxville to face Cuonzo Martin’s second team, jumped to a 21-point lead, and held on to win 85-80. (Remember the all-orange unis? I still like the idea.)

The last departure lasted six years, resolved with a three-game set starting in 2019. The Vols won that one 102-92, then we played its polar opposite in 2020, a 51-47 Memphis victory. Turns out no matter how much you want to win, it’s hard to do so shooting 4-of-26 from the arc.

And now this one in Nashville, which was calling to mind another game in this series.

Eleven seasons ago – Bruce Pearl’s last – a talented Tennessee team raced to a 7-0 start. Then they lost three straight to Oakland, Charlotte, and USC. They beat Belmont by one and Tennessee-Martin by six. And then they lost to College of Charleston by 13.

Meanwhile, Memphis was 11-2, their only losses to Kansas and Georgetown. The Tigers were ranked 21st, the Vols reeling and preparing to sit Pearl for his mandated SEC suspension.

And Tennessee’s talent won 104-84, a game the Vols led at one point by 36.

That was the polar opposite of this one, or so we thought. Memphis, with loads of talent, started the season 5-0. Then they were hammered by Iowa State. Then they lost to Georgia (KenPom #161), Ole Miss (#90), and Murray State (#89). Along the way, Penny Hardaway did an interview with Seth Davis at The Athletic which continues to break my brain. “We’ve got so much negativity in our locker room,” is merely the headline; I highly recommend the rest.

As a Tennessee fan, Memphis was in such a spiral it was concerning, because I worried playing us might be one of the few things left to motivate them. Turns out, playing #6 Alabama will do it too.

Memphis got right on Tuesday night with a 92-78 win at the Bass Pro FedEx. Some of their consistent weaknesses remained, like committing 17 turnovers and allowing 14 offensive rebounds. Some of their consistent strengths did as well: Bama turned it over 20 times, and Memphis crashed with 13 offensive rebounds and 25 free throw attempts.

The biggest difference came on the other end of that equation: Alabama only got to the line a dozen times. The Tiger defense is still 306th nationally in free throw rate allowed, but they kept the Tide at bay for sure.

Tennessee, of course, shoots free throws at a lesser rate than almost any team in college basketball; Memphis isn’t the team to change that against. And they’ve always been long and potentially problematic to score on: lineups putting freshmen Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren on the floor together give them four players at 6’7″ or taller.

But the Vols, still rocking the nation’s best defense in KenPom, will look to feast on the Memphis offense. Iowa State and Ole Miss both forced turnovers on more than 25% of Tiger possessions. That’s the number the Vols average on the year.

In rivalry land, we put more emphasis on the mental than ever. Is Memphis fixed? Do they think they are? Are there any extra feelings left to be felt on Tennessee’s roster from the 2019 comments and the 2020 loss? And what of Kennedy Chandler, originally from Memphis, Tennessee?

But if we’re looking for steadiness, Rick Barnes is a good place to start. In rivalry games, he’s done better than anyone in my lifetime: 8-6 against Kentucky, 7-2 against Florida, 10-3 against Vanderbilt. We want this win, desperately, to close this chapter of the rivalry the right way. Barnes has earned our trust to carry the fight.

Saturday, high noon, Bridgestone Arena on ESPN2.

Go Vols.

Hendon Hooker & Tennessee’s Record Book: Present and Future

Sundays are for good news:

With that, the Vols are a win in the Music City Bowl away from one of the most enjoyable off-seasons we’ve seen around here in the post-Fulmer era.

One way to quantify what Hendon Hooker’s return is worth? The records he has a chance to set or approach in Nashville, despite only starting 10 of Tennessee’s 12 regular season games. There’s plenty to add to in 2022…but this is a pretty good start:

(thanks, as always, to Tennessee’s media guide, SportSource Analytics, and Sports Reference)

Single Season Tennessee Records

Yards Per Attempt

  • Hooker: 9.8
  • Current Record: Peyton Manning 1996 (8.7)

Something would have to go spectacularly wrong for Hooker not to get this one. In the last three decades, only two Vol quarterbacks ended the year with more than 8.5 yards per passing attempt: Peyton Manning in 1996 (8.7), and Erik Ainge in 2006 (8.6). Hooker is rocking 9.8 on 261 passing attempts. That’s tied for third in the nation, and tied for first (with C.J. Stroud) among QBs with more than 250 passing attempts.

Completion Percentage

  • Hooker: 69%
  • Current Record: Erik Ainge 2006 (67%)

Jarrett Guarantano had a shot at this number headed into the final two games of the 2018 season…and it did not go well. But Hooker can stay atop this leaderboard with another solid performance against Purdue. His lowest total of the year was actually his last outing (10-of-18, 55.6%). But the one time his attempts had to go way up against Georgia (37; his second-highest on the year was 28 at Alabama), Hooker still completed 64.9% of his passes against the Bulldogs.

Interception Percentage (200+ attempts)

  • Hooker: 1.15%
  • Current Record: Peyton Manning 1995 (1.05%)

This is the most impressive one to me. Manning’s number is the SEC record among quarterbacks with 300+ passing attempts. Hooker would need to throw it 39 times to get there, which seems unlikely, but again, he only started 10 games. Manning threw four interceptions on 380 passes. If Hooker doesn’t throw a pick against Purdue, he needs 24 passes to tie Manning, 25 to surpass him.

Appearances on Top X Lists

Passing Touchdowns

  • Hooker: 26, currently 7th

If Hooker throws a touchdown pass in the Music City Bowl, he’ll tie Casey Clausen ’03, Jonathan Crompton ’09, and Josh Dobbs ’16 for fourth on Tennessee’s single-season list with 27. There’s a jump from there, but if Hooker goes wild and throws four touchdown passes to get to 30, he’ll become just the fourth Vol QB to do so in a single season: Peyton Manning ’97 (36), Tyler Bray ’12 (34), and Erik Ainge ’07 (31).

Passing Yards

  • Hooker: 2,567, currently 12th

He needs 233 yards through the air for a Top 10 season at UT. In doing so, he would pass the greatest single seasons from Andy Kelly (1991) and Jonathan Crompton (2009). He’s already passed the best individual seasons from Heath Shuler (1993) and Tee Martin (1999). If you want to really feel old and see how football has changed:

  • Heath Shuler 1993: 184-of-285 (64.6%) for 2,354 yards (8.3 ypa), 25 TDs, 8 INTs, plus 76 rushing yards and 3 TDs. Vols averaged 42 points per game.
  • Hendon Hooker 2021: 180-of-261 (69%) for 2,567 yards (9.8 ypa), 26 TDs, 3 INTs, plus 561 rushing yards and 5 TDs. Vols average 39 points per game.

Shuler was the Heisman runner-up in 1993.

Rushing Yards by a QB

  • Hooker: 561, currently 4th

He’s not going to get Josh Dobbs’ record from 2016 (831). But if Hooker runs for 110 yards, he’ll pass Dobbs’ 2015 season for second place on this list. And again, in just 10 games started going into the bowl. Dobbs ran for 64 yards per game in 2016, and was only sacked 25 times. Hooker is at 51 yards per game in his 10 starts plus Pittsburgh, but Tennessee quarterbacks have been sacked 42 times this year.

There’s a whole list he can go after in 2022, at Tennessee and beyond. Most notably, there are only four 3,000 yard seasons at Tennessee: two for Manning, one for Bray, and one for Ainge.

But he’s already off to a sensational start. Pay it off in Nashville, and there will be lots and lots of word count on Hendon Hooker for the next eight months.

Go Vols.

Vols at the 1/4 Mark: Good News! Bad News?

So Tuesday, we were doing job interviews at church. I ended up missing all of the Texas Tech game, walking in the door just as the game went final. It became apparent very quickly that this was not something to lament, given the way all four teams in the building that night looked to set offensive basketball back a few decades.

This becomes the conversation on Tennessee, now a quarter of the way through the regular season. It’s Tennessee who has the nation’s best defense via KenPom, somehow still generating blocked shots and turnovers at an extraordinary rate without the guys who did a ton of that work last year.

The first takeaway from watching this team early on was the absence of Yves Pons on the defensive end. But just because it looks different doesn’t mean it isn’t working: Tennessee is 10th nationally in block percentage, sending back 16.8% of the shots they face. Josiah-Jordan James has been stellar at this, as he is everywhere defensively, while John Fulkerson has turned in the best basketball of his career in this department so far. And Olivier Nkamhoua has taken a leap on both ends of the floor, though not enough to finish the fight against Texas Tech.

Meanwhile, despite losing Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson, the Vols are relentless in forcing turnovers. Again, Josiah leads the way here, currently 11th nationally in steal percentage. But Tennessee’s three point guards have been huge factors in this department as well.

The result is a defense that, so far, does everything well. Even their play against Villanova was noteworthy, and the only place we’ll see a better offense than theirs is the NCAA Tournament. Defense travels, and if it shows up consistently (like in 2018) instead of sporadically (like in 2021), the Vols will be players.

Offensively, there’s Kennedy Chandler, and there are a lot of threes that can fall. This team needs a Plan C, whether that’s playing back through John Fulkerson or something else developing.

One thing that is not, at all, developing: Tennessee getting to the free throw line. This is not the threes-and-frees offense. It’s threes, and hope they finish at the rim.

The Vols at the stripe this year:

  • Tennessee Martin: 7-of-13
  • ETSU: 16-of-18
  • Villanova: 10-of-13
  • UNC: 4-of-5 (lol)
  • Tennessee Tech: 10-of-10
  • Presbyterian: 6-of-9
  • Colorado: 5-of-9
  • Texas Tech: 8-of-16

In four games against major conference opponents, the Vols are 27-of-43. The percentage (62.7%) isn’t great, but it was only costly against the Red Raiders. It’s the sheer lack of attempts that stands way, way out: the Vols are 350th of 358 in college basketball in free throw attempt percentage.

As new as the three-point barrage is, so too is this. Right now 42.3% of Tennessee’s attempts are from behind the arc. The previous high under Barnes: 36.25% in his first year (Kevin Punter, Detrick Mostella, Devon Baulkman). But the current Vols are getting to the line on just 17.5% of their attempts. The previous low in this department is Tennessee’s best offense from 2019, that blistered the nets and didn’t turn it over. But they also got to the line on 33.3% of their attempts.

No surprise, here’s where playing through Fulkerson would improve things. I’m curious to see if Kennedy Chandler can get more of a whistle going forward; we know he’s going to get past guys. If a defense is going to put up little resistance like UNC, so be it. But especially when we get to the rigors of SEC play, Tennessee’s offense is going to need more help via the charity stripe.

This week the Vols roll out the carpet for the Carolinas, with UNC Greensboro tomorrow and USC Upstate on Tuesday. That ends the tune-ups: it’s Memphis in Nashville next Saturday, then undefeated Arizona in Knoxville on December 22, followed by the SEC opener in Tuscaloosa on December 29. If Tennessee continues to split these heavy hitters as they’ve done with Villanova/UNC and Colorado/Texas Tech, they’ll keep themselves in position for a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament. Last year we saw Tennessee’s best basketball in December. This year, more consistency would be a good start. There’s no room to grow in the rankings on defense. But there’s room for improvement, and for a Plan C, on the offensive end. Can this team find more of a home at the free throw line? That can make a big difference when you know you’re going to have an elite defense and elite point guard out there every night.

Go Vols.

Gameday on Rocky Top Bowl Pick ‘Em

A big congrats to Krusher, who took our regular season confidence points trophy with a record of 194-76 straight up and 2,188 confidence points. That was just enough to get past GeorgeMonkey (2,183), with Jahiegel and wedflatrock (2,178) tying for third. Rounding out the Top 10 are several old friends from the Rocky Top Talk days: keeps corn in a jar, PAVolFan, Orange on Orange, birdjam, crafdog, and memphispete. Congrats all!

We move now to the bowls: 43 games on the docket, including the national championship, between December 17 and January 10. That means plenty of room for continued chaos with confidence points in our pick ’em contest, which as always, you can join free at Fun Office Pools. Looking forward to celebrating football from the Bahamas Bowl to the title game this holiday season – the pool is open, come on in.

First Look: Music City Bowl

Two years and at least two lifetimes ago, Tennessee almost went back to the Music City Bowl. The last minute switch to the Gator Bowl was a welcome one, carrying January prestige and tradition.

I don’t know if there’s a clear answer to the idea of that switch this year; leave the opponents the same and you do get a shot at a ranked foe from Wake Forest. I do know it’s good for our mental health to look forward, not back, so I’m glad to not be writing on how to stop the Clawfense, now that it’s had enough time.

But with college football in flux, I also think so many of these traditions are what we make of them. The New Year’s Six stretches back to December 30, the same day the Vols and Boilermakers will meet in Nashville. Even the Gator Bowl is on the 31st this season. And the league office seemed true to its word, at least this season: rewarding Top 25 Kentucky, Arkansas, and Texas A&M with the slots typically thought of as more prestigious is a decision I fully respect. It makes the most sense for this Tennessee team to be in Nashville at the end of this season.

There are all these words that go in this next blank about how we weren’t sure we’d be anywhere at the start of this season, and weren’t sure how long it’d be until we were anywhere or who we’d be there with around 11 months ago. The work Josh Heupel and these guys have done in one year gets one more data point, a 13th game with a chance to get an eighth win. Purdue may not feel like an opponent that can elevate the narrative, but it can certainly reinforce it. And most importantly, it can continue to build the path to the future for this program.

We’ll say more about Heupel along the way, both before and after this game 25 days from now. Whatever is left to build in this season, Purdue and Jeff Brohm are a fitting opponent. If Heupel gets to 8-5, he’ll best the year one records of Kiffin (7-6), Dooley (6-7), Jones (5-7) and Pruitt (5-7). Meanwhile, Brohm has Purdue at eight wins right now for the first time since 2007, the same year we use as the “remember when” benchmark. If they beat us to get to nine, it’ll be the first time since 2003 (shout out Kyle Orton & Jim Chaney).

Purdue had two separate fortnights of beating a Top 5 team by double digits, getting in the poll, getting blown out by another good team, and getting thrown out of the poll. They won at #2 Iowa 24-7 on October 16, jumped into the poll at #25, then got busted up by Wisconsin 30-13 at home the next week. On November 6, they beat #3 Michigan State 40-29. Back in the poll at #19, then they went to Ohio State, where they lost 59-31, back out of the poll. They’re 30th in receiving votes, so a win in Nashville could get them their first ranked finish since 2003.

It’s now year five for Brohm, who you’ll remember maybe/maybe not considering a jump to Tennessee after year one in the midst of 2017’s disaster. Purdue was so thoroughly non-competitive under his predecessor, he was able to make significant strides even going 17-21 in his first three seasons. We used Brohm as a template for one of our favorite exercises during our coaching search last season: progress over predecessors in SP+. And in that regard, this fall he’s looked to move Purdue from Point B to Point C.

The Vols were combustible and self-destructive under previous administrations, but they weren’t flat out non-competitive year-over-year like Purdue, so Heupel’s climb wasn’t quite as steep in that regard. Coming into the year, we thought getting from Point A to Point B would just be putting a better product on the field than three of the last four seasons. Instead, Heupel and this team gave us one of the best seasons we’ve seen at Tennessee in 14 years post-Fulmer. For us to start thinking about Point C at a much faster rate, the Vols need a strong finish. And Nashville should be a friendly venue.

When I think back to that 2019 bowl, it was the final performance for Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway, Daniel Bituli, Nigel Warrior, and Darrell Taylor. These were guys who stayed through turmoil, led by example, and really saved the 2019 season when we were such a mess that September. Beating Indiana in that winning streak, especially in dramatic fashion, was a nice send-off. But what you really wanted for them was for what they did to be the start of something, a link in a chain that held strong. Instead, Jeremy Pruitt’s chain went all to pieces in 2020.

For all the guys who are playing their last game at Tennessee against Purdue, I’m thrilled they got the chance to experience 2021. You want to send them out the right way. And if we do, we’ll feel even more that they might be remembered not just for an 8-5 season, but for being the first link in a new chain. One that ultimately stretches back to the kind of football that regularly shows up in January.

This year has been a joy to watch. And if we finish if off the right way, we’ll spend an off-season feeling like the future will be too.

Go Vols.

Tennessee Bowl Projections – Championship Week

What’s a good distraction while we watch the coaching carousel spin? Here are the latest round of bowl projections, with only the championship games left to play.

In the SEC, three teams are locked into the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six. I don’t see any amount of weirdness that would keep Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss out of that equation. If Pitt beats Wake Forest to win the ACC, four of Tennessee’s five losses will have come to teams in the CFP/NY6.

The Citrus Bowl is next, and will have their pick of #23 Arkansas (8-4), #24 Texas A&M (8-4), and #25 Kentucky (9-3). The Wildcats’ win over Louisville may not have helped Tennessee in the bowl equation, but it does present the opportunity for the Vols to get just their seventh win over a team that finishes the year ranked in the last 14 seasons:

  • 2011 #25 Cincinnati
  • 2013 #4 South Carolina
  • 2015 #23 Northwestern
  • 2016 #14 Florida
  • 2016 #16 Virginia Tech
  • 2018 #12 Kentucky

Is there an outcome in Orlando that helps Tennessee the most? Officially or unofficially, the league office isn’t going to reward a 7-5 team over a 9-3 team. If the Cats are getting preference over us either way, I’d say let’s get them out of the way and send them to the Citrus Bowl.

That then brings us to the Group of Six: Outback, Gator, Music City, Mayo, Liberty, Texas. Louisville’s win over Kentucky was almost certainly the final blow for any flickering Outback Bowl hopes. But we have seen Tennessee get in the mix after that in various projections.

In fact, at this point I can’t find anyone projecting Tennessee to the Liberty or Texas Bowls. These things are always unpredictable, but the Vols sure seem like they’re headed to the Gator, Music City, or Mayo Bowl.

Of the three, the Gator certainly carries the most prestige, though it is on December 31 and not January 1 this year. The Music City, of course, carries the best travel option for the largest percentage of Tennessee’s fan base. And the Mayo Bowl would come with some newness, as the Vols have never played in the Belk/Mayo game; Tennessee was in downtown Charlotte to open the 2018 season against West Virginia.

When you break these three down, much of your preference is going to fall to who we’re playing. Here are the projected opponents in the Gator, Music City, and Mayo Bowls from seven sources; Tennessee’s projection is listed in bold:

GatorMusic CityMayo
ESPN BonaguraWake ForestPenn StateMiami
ESPN SchlabachClemsonPurdueVirginia
CBSWake ForestMinnesotaVirginia
College Football NewsWake ForestPurdueVirginia
247 SportsClemsonMinnesotaNorth Carolina
The AthleticWake ForestPurdueNC State
AthlonClemsonPurdueVirginia

The most desirable outcome – Clemson in the Gator Bowl – doesn’t fall Tennessee’s way in any of these. But that doesn’t make it impossible. I will say, if Wake Forest beats Pittsburgh in the ACC title game, the Vols aren’t going to be matched up with the Panthers again. The Cheez-It Bowl has the ACC’s first pick after the NY6, then the Gator, then the Mayo. So a Wake win in the ACC title game could increase the likelihood of Vols vs Clemson…but could also increase the likelihood of Vols in the Music City.

What might feel like the second most desirable outcome – Penn State in Nashville – also isn’t projected anywhere. But you might get a ranked opportunity against Minnesota, who beat Wisconsin on Saturday. The Gophers are also receiving votes in the AP poll, but could sneak into tomorrow’s playoff poll. The same would be true with NC State, currently 21st; Clemson, currently 23rd; and possibly Wake Forest in a loss, currently 18th.

After that, there would be some excitement over catching Miami or North Carolina in Charlotte. The Hurricanes still carry brand value, and the Tar Heels would present an opportunity to right the wrongs of the Music City Bowl 11 years ago.

Any of those games would present an opportunity to elevate the program to various degrees. Nothing would do more for Tennessee than beating Clemson. But a ranked win over Wake Forest, NC State, or Minnesota, or a statement win over Miami, North Carolina, or Penn State would all be helpful.

Some of the other projections wouldn’t carry the same weight, though Vols vs Purdue could be plenty of fun if you like offense. Tennessee hasn’t played Virginia since the January 1, 1991 Sugar Bowl, but the Hoos ended their season with four straight losses to BYU, Notre Dame, Pitt, and Virginia Tech, so what would’ve been an opportunity game now feels more like an anniversary special.

No matter what, a win for Tennessee would lead to an 8-5 finish, which would be the most wins in year one for any Vol squad since Phillip Fulmer’s in 1993. Forward progress is available anywhere…it’s just a question of how much.

Go Vols.