Will Shelton, Author at Gameday on Rocky Top

Hendon Hooker & Tennessee’s Record Book: Present and Future

Sundays are for good news:

Looking forward to many more… Let’s run it back @Vol_Football pic.twitter.com/0EWgFiaett
— Hendon Hooker (@henhook2) December 12, 2021

With that, the Vols are a win in the Music City Bowl away from one of the most enjoyable off-seasons we’ve seen around here in the post-Fulmer era.

One way to quantify what Hendon Hooker’s return is worth? The records he has a chance to set or approach in Nashville, despite only starting 10 of Tennessee’s 12 regular season games. There’s plenty to add to in 2022…but this is a pretty good start:

(thanks, as always, to Tennessee’s media guide, SportSource Analytics, and Sports Reference)

Single Season Tennessee Records

Yards Per Attempt

Hooker: 9.8
Current Record: Peyton Manning 1996 (8.7)

Something would have to go spectacularly wrong for Hooker not to get this one. In the last three decades, only two Vol quarterbacks ended the year with more than 8.5 yards per passing attempt: Peyton Manning in 1996 (8.7), and Erik Ainge in 2006 (8.6). Hooker is rocking 9.8 on 261 passing attempts. That’s tied for third in the nation, and tied for first (with C.J. Stroud) among QBs with more than 250 passing attempts.

Completion Percentage

Hooker: 69%
Current Record: Erik Ainge 2006 (67%)

Jarrett Guarantano had a shot at this number headed into the final two games of the 2018 season…and it did not go well. But Hooker can stay atop this leaderboard with another solid performance against Purdue. His lowest total of the year was actually his last outing (10-of-18, 55.6%). But the one time his attempts had to go way up against Georgia (37; his second-highest on the year was 28 at Alabama), Hooker still completed 64.9% of his passes against the Bulldogs.

Interception Percentage (200+ attempts)

Hooker: 1.15%
Current Record: Peyton Manning 1995 (1.05%)

This is the most impressive one to me. Manning’s number is the SEC record among quarterbacks with 300+ passing attempts. Hooker would need to throw it 39 times to get there, which seems unlikely, but again, he only started 10 games. Manning threw four interceptions on 380 passes. If Hooker doesn’t throw a pick against Purdue, he needs 24 passes to tie Manning, 25 to surpass him.

Appearances on Top X Lists

Passing Touchdowns

Hooker: 26, currently 7th

If Hooker throws a touchdown pass in the Music City Bowl, he’ll tie Casey Clausen ’03, Jonathan Crompton ’09, and Josh Dobbs ’16 for fourth on Tennessee’s single-season list with 27. There’s a jump from there, but if Hooker goes wild and throws four touchdown passes to get to 30, he’ll become just the fourth Vol QB to do so in a single season: Peyton Manning ’97 (36), Tyler Bray ’12 (34), and Erik Ainge ’07 (31).

Passing Yards

Hooker: 2,567, currently 12th

He needs 233 yards through the air for a Top 10 season at UT. In doing so, he would pass the greatest single seasons from Andy Kelly (1991) and Jonathan Crompton (2009). He’s already passed the best individual seasons from Heath Shuler (1993) and Tee Martin (1999). If you want to really feel old and see how football has changed:

Heath Shuler 1993: 184-of-285 (64.6%) for 2,354 yards (8.3 ypa), 25 TDs, 8 INTs, plus 76 rushing yards and 3 TDs. Vols averaged 42 points per game.
Hendon Hooker 2021: 180-of-261 (69%) for 2,567 yards (9.8 ypa), 26 TDs, 3 INTs, plus 561 rushing yards and 5 TDs. Vols average 39 points per game.

Shuler was the Heisman runner-up in 1993.

Rushing Yards by a QB

Hooker: 561, currently 4th

He’s not going to get Josh Dobbs’ record from 2016 (831). But if Hooker runs for 110 yards, he’ll pass Dobbs’ 2015 season for second place on this list. And again, in just 10 games started going into the bowl. Dobbs ran for 64 yards per game in 2016, and was only sacked 25 times. Hooker is at 51 yards per game in his 10 starts plus Pittsburgh, but Tennessee quarterbacks have been sacked 42 times this year.

There’s a whole list he can go after in 2022, at Tennessee and beyond. Most notably, there are only four 3,000 yard seasons at Tennessee: two for Manning, one for Bray, and one for Ainge.

But he’s already off to a sensational start. Pay it off in Nashville, and there will be lots and lots of word count on Hendon Hooker for the next eight months.

Go Vols.

Vols at the 1/4 Mark: Good News! Bad News?

So Tuesday, we were doing job interviews at church. I ended up missing all of the Texas Tech game, walking in the door just as the game went final. It became apparent very quickly that this was not something to lament, given the way all four teams in the building that night looked to set offensive basketball back a few decades.

This becomes the conversation on Tennessee, now a quarter of the way through the regular season. It’s Tennessee who has the nation’s best defense via KenPom, somehow still generating blocked shots and turnovers at an extraordinary rate without the guys who did a ton of that work last year.

The first takeaway from watching this team early on was the absence of Yves Pons on the defensive end. But just because it looks different doesn’t mean it isn’t working: Tennessee is 10th nationally in block percentage, sending back 16.8% of the shots they face. Josiah-Jordan James has been stellar at this, as he is everywhere defensively, while John Fulkerson has turned in the best basketball of his career in this department so far. And Olivier Nkamhoua has taken a leap on both ends of the floor, though not enough to finish the fight against Texas Tech.

Meanwhile, despite losing Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson, the Vols are relentless in forcing turnovers. Again, Josiah leads the way here, currently 11th nationally in steal percentage. But Tennessee’s three point guards have been huge factors in this department as well.

The result is a defense that, so far, does everything well. Even their play against Villanova was noteworthy, and the only place we’ll see a better offense than theirs is the NCAA Tournament. Defense travels, and if it shows up consistently (like in 2018) instead of sporadically (like in 2021), the Vols will be players.

Offensively, there’s Kennedy Chandler, and there are a lot of threes that can fall. This team needs a Plan C, whether that’s playing back through John Fulkerson or something else developing.

One thing that is not, at all, developing: Tennessee getting to the free throw line. This is not the threes-and-frees offense. It’s threes, and hope they finish at the rim.

The Vols at the stripe this year:

Tennessee Martin: 7-of-13
ETSU: 16-of-18
Villanova: 10-of-13
UNC: 4-of-5 (lol)
Tennessee Tech: 10-of-10
Presbyterian: 6-of-9
Colorado: 5-of-9
Texas Tech: 8-of-16

In four games against major conference opponents, the Vols are 27-of-43. The percentage (62.7%) isn’t great, but it was only costly against the Red Raiders. It’s the sheer lack of attempts that stands way, way out: the Vols are 350th of 358 in college basketball in free throw attempt percentage.

As new as the three-point barrage is, so too is this. Right now 42.3% of Tennessee’s attempts are from behind the arc. The previous high under Barnes: 36.25% in his first year (Kevin Punter, Detrick Mostella, Devon Baulkman). But the current Vols are getting to the line on just 17.5% of their attempts. The previous low in this department is Tennessee’s best offense from 2019, that blistered the nets and didn’t turn it over. But they also got to the line on 33.3% of their attempts.

No surprise, here’s where playing through Fulkerson would improve things. I’m curious to see if Kennedy Chandler can get more of a whistle going forward; we know he’s going to get past guys. If a defense is going to put up little resistance like UNC, so be it. But especially when we get to the rigors of SEC play, Tennessee’s offense is going to need more help via the charity stripe.

This week the Vols roll out the carpet for the Carolinas, with UNC Greensboro tomorrow and USC Upstate on Tuesday. That ends the tune-ups: it’s Memphis in Nashville next Saturday, then undefeated Arizona in Knoxville on December 22, followed by the SEC opener in Tuscaloosa on December 29. If Tennessee continues to split these heavy hitters as they’ve done with Villanova/UNC and Colorado/Texas Tech, they’ll keep themselves in position for a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament. Last year we saw Tennessee’s best basketball in December. This year, more consistency would be a good start. There’s no room to grow in the rankings on defense. But there’s room for improvement, and for a Plan C, on the offensive end. Can this team find more of a home at the free throw line? That can make a big difference when you know you’re going to have an elite defense and elite point guard out there every night.

Go Vols.

Gameday on Rocky Top Bowl Pick ‘Em

A big congrats to Krusher, who took our regular season confidence points trophy with a record of 194-76 straight up and 2,188 confidence points. That was just enough to get past GeorgeMonkey (2,183), with Jahiegel and wedflatrock (2,178) tying for third. Rounding out the Top 10 are several old friends from the Rocky Top Talk days: keeps corn in a jar, PAVolFan, Orange on Orange, birdjam, crafdog, and memphispete. Congrats all!

We move now to the bowls: 43 games on the docket, including the national championship, between December 17 and January 10. That means plenty of room for continued chaos with confidence points in our pick ’em contest, which as always, you can join free at Fun Office Pools. Looking forward to celebrating football from the Bahamas Bowl to the title game this holiday season – the pool is open, come on in.

First Look: Music City Bowl

Two years and at least two lifetimes ago, Tennessee almost went back to the Music City Bowl. The last minute switch to the Gator Bowl was a welcome one, carrying January prestige and tradition.

I don’t know if there’s a clear answer to the idea of that switch this year; leave the opponents the same and you do get a shot at a ranked foe from Wake Forest. I do know it’s good for our mental health to look forward, not back, so I’m glad to not be writing on how to stop the Clawfense, now that it’s had enough time.

But with college football in flux, I also think so many of these traditions are what we make of them. The New Year’s Six stretches back to December 30, the same day the Vols and Boilermakers will meet in Nashville. Even the Gator Bowl is on the 31st this season. And the league office seemed true to its word, at least this season: rewarding Top 25 Kentucky, Arkansas, and Texas A&M with the slots typically thought of as more prestigious is a decision I fully respect. It makes the most sense for this Tennessee team to be in Nashville at the end of this season.

There are all these words that go in this next blank about how we weren’t sure we’d be anywhere at the start of this season, and weren’t sure how long it’d be until we were anywhere or who we’d be there with around 11 months ago. The work Josh Heupel and these guys have done in one year gets one more data point, a 13th game with a chance to get an eighth win. Purdue may not feel like an opponent that can elevate the narrative, but it can certainly reinforce it. And most importantly, it can continue to build the path to the future for this program.

We’ll say more about Heupel along the way, both before and after this game 25 days from now. Whatever is left to build in this season, Purdue and Jeff Brohm are a fitting opponent. If Heupel gets to 8-5, he’ll best the year one records of Kiffin (7-6), Dooley (6-7), Jones (5-7) and Pruitt (5-7). Meanwhile, Brohm has Purdue at eight wins right now for the first time since 2007, the same year we use as the “remember when” benchmark. If they beat us to get to nine, it’ll be the first time since 2003 (shout out Kyle Orton & Jim Chaney).

Purdue had two separate fortnights of beating a Top 5 team by double digits, getting in the poll, getting blown out by another good team, and getting thrown out of the poll. They won at #2 Iowa 24-7 on October 16, jumped into the poll at #25, then got busted up by Wisconsin 30-13 at home the next week. On November 6, they beat #3 Michigan State 40-29. Back in the poll at #19, then they went to Ohio State, where they lost 59-31, back out of the poll. They’re 30th in receiving votes, so a win in Nashville could get them their first ranked finish since 2003.

It’s now year five for Brohm, who you’ll remember maybe/maybe not considering a jump to Tennessee after year one in the midst of 2017’s disaster. Purdue was so thoroughly non-competitive under his predecessor, he was able to make significant strides even going 17-21 in his first three seasons. We used Brohm as a template for one of our favorite exercises during our coaching search last season: progress over predecessors in SP+. And in that regard, this fall he’s looked to move Purdue from Point B to Point C.

The Vols were combustible and self-destructive under previous administrations, but they weren’t flat out non-competitive year-over-year like Purdue, so Heupel’s climb wasn’t quite as steep in that regard. Coming into the year, we thought getting from Point A to Point B would just be putting a better product on the field than three of the last four seasons. Instead, Heupel and this team gave us one of the best seasons we’ve seen at Tennessee in 14 years post-Fulmer. For us to start thinking about Point C at a much faster rate, the Vols need a strong finish. And Nashville should be a friendly venue.

When I think back to that 2019 bowl, it was the final performance for Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway, Daniel Bituli, Nigel Warrior, and Darrell Taylor. These were guys who stayed through turmoil, led by example, and really saved the 2019 season when we were such a mess that September. Beating Indiana in that winning streak, especially in dramatic fashion, was a nice send-off. But what you really wanted for them was for what they did to be the start of something, a link in a chain that held strong. Instead, Jeremy Pruitt’s chain went all to pieces in 2020.

For all the guys who are playing their last game at Tennessee against Purdue, I’m thrilled they got the chance to experience 2021. You want to send them out the right way. And if we do, we’ll feel even more that they might be remembered not just for an 8-5 season, but for being the first link in a new chain. One that ultimately stretches back to the kind of football that regularly shows up in January.

This year has been a joy to watch. And if we finish if off the right way, we’ll spend an off-season feeling like the future will be too.

Go Vols.

Tennessee Bowl Projections – Championship Week

What’s a good distraction while we watch the coaching carousel spin? Here are the latest round of bowl projections, with only the championship games left to play.

In the SEC, three teams are locked into the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six. I don’t see any amount of weirdness that would keep Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss out of that equation. If Pitt beats Wake Forest to win the ACC, four of Tennessee’s five losses will have come to teams in the CFP/NY6.

The Citrus Bowl is next, and will have their pick of #23 Arkansas (8-4), #24 Texas A&M (8-4), and #25 Kentucky (9-3). The Wildcats’ win over Louisville may not have helped Tennessee in the bowl equation, but it does present the opportunity for the Vols to get just their seventh win over a team that finishes the year ranked in the last 14 seasons:

2011 #25 Cincinnati
2013 #4 South Carolina
2015 #23 Northwestern
2016 #14 Florida
2016 #16 Virginia Tech
2018 #12 Kentucky

Is there an outcome in Orlando that helps Tennessee the most? Officially or unofficially, the league office isn’t going to reward a 7-5 team over a 9-3 team. If the Cats are getting preference over us either way, I’d say let’s get them out of the way and send them to the Citrus Bowl.

That then brings us to the Group of Six: Outback, Gator, Music City, Mayo, Liberty, Texas. Louisville’s win over Kentucky was almost certainly the final blow for any flickering Outback Bowl hopes. But we have seen Tennessee get in the mix after that in various projections.

In fact, at this point I can’t find anyone projecting Tennessee to the Liberty or Texas Bowls. These things are always unpredictable, but the Vols sure seem like they’re headed to the Gator, Music City, or Mayo Bowl.

Of the three, the Gator certainly carries the most prestige, though it is on December 31 and not January 1 this year. The Music City, of course, carries the best travel option for the largest percentage of Tennessee’s fan base. And the Mayo Bowl would come with some newness, as the Vols have never played in the Belk/Mayo game; Tennessee was in downtown Charlotte to open the 2018 season against West Virginia.

When you break these three down, much of your preference is going to fall to who we’re playing. Here are the projected opponents in the Gator, Music City, and Mayo Bowls from seven sources; Tennessee’s projection is listed in bold:

	Gator	Music City	Mayo
ESPN Bonagura	Wake Forest	Penn State	Miami
ESPN Schlabach	Clemson	Purdue	Virginia
CBS	Wake Forest	Minnesota	Virginia
College Football News	Wake Forest	Purdue	Virginia
247 Sports	Clemson	Minnesota	North Carolina
The Athletic	Wake Forest	Purdue	NC State
Athlon	Clemson	Purdue	Virginia

The most desirable outcome – Clemson in the Gator Bowl – doesn’t fall Tennessee’s way in any of these. But that doesn’t make it impossible. I will say, if Wake Forest beats Pittsburgh in the ACC title game, the Vols aren’t going to be matched up with the Panthers again. The Cheez-It Bowl has the ACC’s first pick after the NY6, then the Gator, then the Mayo. So a Wake win in the ACC title game could increase the likelihood of Vols vs Clemson…but could also increase the likelihood of Vols in the Music City.

What might feel like the second most desirable outcome – Penn State in Nashville – also isn’t projected anywhere. But you might get a ranked opportunity against Minnesota, who beat Wisconsin on Saturday. The Gophers are also receiving votes in the AP poll, but could sneak into tomorrow’s playoff poll. The same would be true with NC State, currently 21st; Clemson, currently 23rd; and possibly Wake Forest in a loss, currently 18th.

After that, there would be some excitement over catching Miami or North Carolina in Charlotte. The Hurricanes still carry brand value, and the Tar Heels would present an opportunity to right the wrongs of the Music City Bowl 11 years ago.

Any of those games would present an opportunity to elevate the program to various degrees. Nothing would do more for Tennessee than beating Clemson. But a ranked win over Wake Forest, NC State, or Minnesota, or a statement win over Miami, North Carolina, or Penn State would all be helpful.

Some of the other projections wouldn’t carry the same weight, though Vols vs Purdue could be plenty of fun if you like offense. Tennessee hasn’t played Virginia since the January 1, 1991 Sugar Bowl, but the Hoos ended their season with four straight losses to BYU, Notre Dame, Pitt, and Virginia Tech, so what would’ve been an opportunity game now feels more like an anniversary special.

No matter what, a win for Tennessee would lead to an 8-5 finish, which would be the most wins in year one for any Vol squad since Phillip Fulmer’s in 1993. Forward progress is available anywhere…it’s just a question of how much.

Go Vols.

Tennessee Bowl Projections: Thanksgiving Week

The Vols handled their business against South Alabama, and picked up a couple of desired results elsewhere in the bowl pecking order. Auburn, once 6-2 and still alive for Atlanta, is now staring at 6-6 unless they can beat Alabama. And Florida fell to 5-6 and fired Dan Mullen, which should remove them as bowl competition for Tennessee.

Tennessee continues to be projected in the SEC’s group of six, almost exclusively in one of two places:

Charlotte: CBS, ESPN Bonagura
Nashville: 247, College Football News, ESPN Schlabach

Both of those bowls come with matchups that would excite (Penn State! Miami! North Carolina! Ranked NC State!) and those that might not (Minnesota! Unranked NC State!). They’re both good geographic fits for Tennessee’s fan base. And they’re both the best you can ask for if you’re not going to spend New Year’s in Florida in a traditional January 1 bowl.

But can Tennessee still get to the sunshine state?

Here are the most important outcomes this week:

Thursday: Ole Miss over Mississippi State. A Rebel victory in the Egg Bowl should lock them in to the New Year’s Six, moving everyone in the SEC up one spot. It would also leave the Bulldogs at 7-5, putting them on equal footing with Tennessee. If Mississippi State pulls the upset, the SEC can still get three teams in the CFP/NY6 so long as Alabama makes the playoff; the Sugar Bowl would then be required to take the next best SEC team.
Friday: Missouri over Arkansas. If the Razorbacks win, an 8-4 and ranked Arkansas that’s been more in the national conversation this year – and with a hungry fan base – should probably go ahead of Tennessee in the pecking order. A Mizzou victory would put the Tigers and Razorbacks even with Tennessee at 7-5. That 62-24 win in Columbia looks better by the week.
Saturday: Alabama over Auburn. Keeps the Tigers below Tennessee in the pecking order, and keeps Alabama in the playoff chase.
Saturday: Clemson over South Carolina. The Gamecocks’ rally helps Tennessee’s resume for sure. Let’s just not get carried away and give anyone the notion of putting them ahead of Tennessee in the pecking order.
Saturday: Louisville over Kentucky. If you want the biggest dreams, here’s the outcome you need most. At 9-3, the Cats would almost certainly (and deservedly) be the pick for the Outback Bowl. But if Kentucky slips to 8-4, and 2-4 in their last six? Could the folks in Tampa hope for a program with more momentum?

If you get those four outcomes, you’ll have Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss in the CFP/NY6, with Texas A&M in the Citrus Bowl. From there, the group of six – starting with the Outback Bowl – would be choosing from 8-4 Kentucky, 7-5 Arkansas/Mississippi State/Missouri/Tennessee, and a host of teams at 6-6 including Auburn, South Carolina, and potentially Florida and LSU.

In that scenario, the Vols could get to Jacksonville…or even Tampa. It’s unlikely, but possible.

Whatever it’s worth, here’s my most realistic scenario overall:

CFP/NY6: Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss
Citrus: Texas A&M
Outback: Kentucky
Gator: Arkansas
Music City: Tennessee
Mayo: South Carolina
Liberty: Mississippi State
Texas: Missouri
Birmingham: Auburn

But if the Vols handle Vanderbilt, there should be plenty of good options available.

Vols Redeem the Weekend in Style

Everybody gets to dream big in November, but Villanova didn’t let us get much farther than the first possession yesterday. A 40-minute loss to a Top 5 team will certainly put a dent in your championship aspirations. We had to hope the Vols could figure it out along the way, and play their way back to the kind of ceiling we hoped we had coming into the weekend.

North Carolina is not a Top 5 team, but they were Top 20. And they are North Carolina, legions of fans generally and breaker of Tennessee hearts in December of 2016, 2017, and March of 2000 specifically.

So it turns out no matter how poorly you play against #5 Villanova, you can leave feeling good about yourself if you do something similar to the Tar Heels.

Tennessee was without Josiah Jordan-James. They led by seven after a fast-paced first half, still unable to get the three ball going while Carolina – especially Brady Manek off the bench – had theirs. In the second half, the Vols put a lot of a three point guard lineup on the floor: Kennedy Chandler, Santiago Vescovi, and Zakai Zeigler. And it worked. Like real well.

Chandler played 32 minutes, finishing with 14 points, 8 assists, and 2 turnovers. Vescovi played 31, finishing with 17 points, 3 assists, and 9 rebounds in a lineup where he’s basically playing the three. And Zeigler, off the bench, played 27 minutes and dropped 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting, plus 5 assists and z-e-r-o turnovers. The Vols shot five free throws. They scored 89 points.

Carolina’s defense was not Villanova’s, nor will it be the likes we’ll see shortly from Texas Tech and Memphis. But it was still Carolina, and the Vols feasted. John Fulkerson added 13 points, 5 boards, and 6 assists. Brandon Huntley-Hatfield had a nice run of 23 minutes. The Vols never really replaced Josiah’s role with something similar, and Victor Bailey ended up with just eight minutes. Instead, it was a three guard clinic with two bigs; when Josiah’s healthy, there’s some real versatility there in sliding him in at the four if the young kids continue to play this well.

And Vescovi is simply more physical and more consistent, on both ends of the floor, than what we’ve seen previously. He’s never been afraid to shoot (or of much of anything), but he gets in traffic and in passing lanes with much more authority so far this season. If there was any talk of Chandler taking his minutes, his play early on shows how valuable he can be when they’re on the floor together.

The same, apparently, goes for Zeigler. If you didn’t see it and just read the headline – “Zeigler leads Vols past North Carolina” – you might still be unsure who that even is. Tennessee signed seven players in this class, including two five-stars. Zeigler is the sixth-highest rated of the group. He committed to Tennessee the week of the Bowling Green game. The day after the South Alabama game, he torched Carolina’s defense.

There will be ups and downs with any freshman – Kennedy Chandler was 1-of-9 against Villanova – but the good news is not just the diversity, but the defense. The Vols were actually fairly solid defensively against Villanova, but lifeless on offense. Today, they allowed 10-of-23 from the arc against a hot-shooting Tar Heel squad, plus 18-of-22 at the line…and won by 17, holding Carolina to just 72 points. That comes by way of 13 turnovers, and holding UNC to just five offensive rebounds. That’ll travel.

The Vols get Tennessee Tech and Presbyterian around Thanksgiving weekend, then travel themselves to Colorado for the return match on Saturday, December 4. We’ve still got a ways to go to be on Villanova’s level. But there’s no step forward more satisfying than the one they took today.

Go Vols.

Tennessee vs Villanova Preview: First One’s The Hardest

The scheduling gods were kind: tomorrow you’ve got football at 7:30 PM, free and clear to watch #17 Tennessee battle #5 Villanova at the Mohegan Sun at 1:00 PM. Twenty-four hours later, it’s a shot at revenge one way or another: #6 Purdue or #18 North Carolina.

These could end up being the best teams Tennessee plays in the regular season. Nova leads the way there in the current AP poll, Purdue in the current KenPom at #4. The Vols play a host of teams just outside the KenPom Top 10 later: #12 Texas Tech, #13 Memphis, #14 Texas, plus Kentucky at #15, Florida at #19, and Alabama at #20. But when it’s all said and done, you may not get a better one-two punch than Villanova and Purdue, if that’s how it ends up going this weekend.

Tennessee’s last Top 10 win was at #6 Kentucky two years ago. The 2019 squad famously got three Top 5 wins: #1 Gonzaga, and a pair of wins over #4 Kentucky. Rick Barnes also got #4 Kentucky in year two in Knoxville, giving him four Top 5 wins in his tenure. A win tomorrow would bring him one step closer to Bruce Pearl’s seven Top 5 wins: #2 Florida in 2006, #5 Florida in 2007, #1 Memphis in 2008, #1 Kansas in 2010, #2 Kentucky in 2010, #5 Ohio State in 2010, and #3 Pittsburgh in 2011.

How comfortable will the Vols be in a shootout? Since emerging on the national stage four years ago, the Vols have played only eight games where both teams scored in the 80s in regulation, with five of them coming in 2019. Tennessee went 5-3 in those games, losing twice to Auburn plus the Sweet 16 against Purdue. But the Vols did punish Memphis and Arkansas in 2019 playing at 80 possessions.

It’s not the pace with Villanova, it’s the efficiency. The Wildcats are shooting 48.8% from the arc through the first three games, two blowouts and an overtime loss to UCLA. And it wasn’t really the offense that cost them against the Bruins: Nova shot 11-of-24 from the arc (45.8%), though only 38.6% from two. They only turned it over seven times.

But UCLA shot 46.9% from the field, 17-of-19 at the line, and was +14 on the glass. They got excellent production from their guards against Villanova’s defense, which currently checks in at 61st in KenPom. Their offense is third, so if the Vols are going to do it, it may have to be by keeping up on the offensive end.

Who will those guys be for Tennessee? Through two games, Tennessee’s leaders in shots are Santiago Vescovi and…Olivier Nkamhoua, which will come as a surprise if you didn’t catch any of the UT-Martin or ETSU games. Nkamhoua has played more minutes than anyone so far, perhaps in part due to John Fulkerson working his way in from the thumb injury. But Nkamhoua is 3-of-5 from the arc and leads the team in rebounds by a mile. This is, so far, not at all the same player you remember.

Two seasons ago, after the Vols beat Florida A&M on December 4 and Nkamhoua had 11 and 13, Rick Barnes said, “We need him, and he alone can change our team with the ability that he has if he will buy into it.” It was an eyebrow-raising comment at the time, with the 2020 Vols looking for production and soon to be without Lamonte Turner the rest of the way. His 23 minutes that day ended up being a season high; he played 21 against Wisconsin over Christmas break, then only saw more than 15 minutes two other times. Last year he only played more than 15 minutes once, and only played 19 total minutes in Tennessee’s last six games.

There’s a lot that Tennessee needs on the defensive end without Yves Pons, and if you haven’t watched us yet, you’ll notice that difference right away. But Nkamhoua is again raising eyebrows for the ways he might change what Tennessee can do on the offensive end, an unexpected bonus for a group we expected to go through Kennedy Chandler and John Fulkerson. The freshman point guard is right there, third on the team in shot attempts with 10 assists to 4 turnovers so far. Fulkerson is recovering, but two years ago Tennessee’s best basketball absolutely went through him.

These Vols are also launching 30+ threes per game, meaning there is so much newness in what we’ll witness this weekend. Will it be enough to keep up with Villanova, who’ll surely find their own success against a Tennessee defense still figuring out who’s going to protect the rim?

It’s early, but could end up being the biggest test of the regular season. 1:00 PM Saturday on, you guessed it, ESPN News.

Go Vols.

Tennessee Bowl Projections: Opportunity Abounds

Win totals are at the bottom if you want to finish the run, but Tennessee’s schedule should leave everyone somewhere between 6.8-7.0 wins. With one ranked win in hand and a pair of satisfying blowouts behind it, the Vols can get one more opportunity at a win that resonates in the postseason. And there, 7-5 can still lead to 8-5, which would be the best year one record for any coach here since Phillip Fulmer.

So first the path, then the projections:

You want as many SEC teams in the CFP/NY6 as possible. The working assumption here is Georgia and Alabama are in there somewhere, and Ole Miss can be too if they win out. Those three in the CFP/NY6 should leave Texas A&M in the Citrus Bowl if the Aggies beat LSU to finish. Little has been clean this year other than Georgia at the top, but that’s the simplest version to get us to the group of six, where the Vols should find themselves.

That, of course, is the Outback, Gator, Music City, Belk/Mayo, Liberty, and Texas Bowls. Among those six, if the above scenario holds, you’ll have some combination of:

Arkansas (7-3, at Alabama, vs Missouri)
Kentucky (7-3, New Mexico State, at Louisville)
Mississippi State (6-4, Tennessee State, Ole Miss)
Auburn (6-4, at South Carolina, Alabama)
Tennessee (5-5, South Alabama, Vanderbilt)
Florida (5-5, at Missouri, Florida State)
Missouri (5-5, Florida, at Arkansas)
South Carolina (5-5, Auburn, Clemson)
LSU (4-6, LA Monroe, Texas A&M)

So there’s still a bit of work to do here, including, of course, Tennessee finishing strong. Outcomes of particular importance here include Alabama winning out to stay in the CFP/NY6, Ole Miss winning the Egg Bowl for the same reason, and any additional losses for teams with a chance to finish better than 7-5 in that group.

The line is that the league office works with the schools and the bowls to make “assignments” for those six bowls. It doesn’t always go the way you think – see Tennessee’s pair of assignments to the Gator Bowl at 6-6, to our benefit – but the Vols should be well positioned if they finish at 7-5.

Could Tennessee get as high as the Outback Bowl, the most prestigious of that group? You’d need some particular madness, like Arkansas losing out and Louisville over Kentucky. But as it’s not impossible, we’ve included all six bowls in the grid below. Just keep in mind that no one actually doing projections is sending the Vols to Tampa. A couple send the Vols to Jacksonville, but most like Nashville or Charlotte. The Belk/Mayo Bowl is particularly interesting because the Vols may be “competing” with a bunch of teams from the SEC West, so geography may send Tennessee to North Carolina.

Here’s the list of potential opponents in these six bowls:

	Outback	Gator	Music City	Mayo	Liberty	Texas
ESPN Bonagura	Wisc	NC State	Penn St	Miami	Kansas St	Iowa St
ESPN Schlabach	Iowa	Clemson	Minn	UNC	Kansas St	Iowa St
McMurphy	Penn St	Clemson	Minn	UNC	Texas Tech	Iowa St
CBS	Wisc	UNC	Penn St	NC State	West VA	Kansas St
247 Sports	Iowa	Pittsburgh	Wisc	VA Tech	West VA	Kansas St
Athlon	Wisc	Clemson	Minn	NC State	West VA	Kansas St
College Football News	Iowa	Clemson	Minn	UNC	West VA	Iowa St

(If the chart looks weird on your phone, try landscape)

There’s a lot left to figure out. But chances are better than not that Tennessee is going to play someone on this list.

And if the Vols find themselves in Tampa, Jacksonville, Nashville, or Charlotte, there are plenty of enticing matchups. Anything in the Outback Bowl would be a win. Nashville is its own bonus, but the chance to play Penn State or Wisconsin could be a definite additional step for the program to end year one. Clemson remains the favorite among fans I’m sure, but an Auburn/Clemson matchup might be too much for Jacksonville to pass up if they have a say in it. But a shot at Miami or North Carolina in Charlotte would also stir interest among Tennessee fans.

At this point, what you want is opportunity. And there’s plenty still out there if the Vols handle their own business the next two weeks.

Tennessee vs Georgia Preview: Somebody’s Going to Have Fun

So, how do we win this thing?

The question itself is already a bit of a win. The last three times we did this against #1, it was Bama in 2017-19. And the Vols were +36.5, +29.5, and +34.5. I can live with +20.5 this week. Our community gives the Vols a 13.7% chance of victory in expected win totals, doubling up the 6.7% we gave the Vols in Tuscaloosa this year.

And I can live with Georgia in mid-November, though with expansion I’m not sure how much longer any of us are living with anything. Tennessee faced a front-loaded schedule for almost 30 years in the SEC East. Now, in better years you’ve still got a chance to win the East if you can pull the upset. And this year – which qualifies as a better year compared to where we’ve been, and where we thought we might continue to hang out – it’s all opportunity. Win, and you’ve scored one of the program’s biggest victories in 15 years. And lose – even lose badly – and you’ve done so to #1, and we already know the why. There is no outcome here – including victory! – where Tennessee doesn’t need to recruit.

Georgia’s defense is the best in the nation, with room for improvement in the annals of history:

Yeah, it's been underselling Georgia's defense all year. Still ranks them first in defensive SP+ but a NORMAL first, not "best FBS defense in years" first.https://t.co/SNqDd3Z9jg
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 10, 2021

You’ll note the Vols are +14 in SP+ on Saturday. Come within 16 of these guys – two possessions – and you’ve done better than anyone since Clemson in the 10-3 opener. Score 14 points on them, and you’ve done better than anyone all year.

The two best defenses the Vols have faced in the last three coaching staffs are the 2016-17 Crimson Tide. The 2017 edition shut out the Vol offense – shout out to Daniel Bituli – but that offense wasn’t much to write home about. However, the 2016 version snuffed out Dobbs, Kamara, etc. to the tune of 163 yards on 63 plays. You’ll recall the week before, they had 684 yards on 99 plays at Texas A&M.

Hopefully, that’s a meaningless comparison. But we have seen it before: no matter how we’ll you’re playing or will play on offense, an elite defense can still shut it down.

Can the reverse be true?

Heupel and these guys have done a tremendous job having the Vols in every one of these games deep into the second half. It’s where we hoped the program would find itself last season, in Pruitt’s year three. I don’t know if it’s fair to expect that against Georgia – I honestly don’t know what to expect – but whether it shows up or not, Heupel and these guys have earned our trust in having his team ready to go. Obviously, this is especially true on offense. On defense? Before last week, I think we all would’ve been intrigued to see these guys go after Stetson Bennett and see what happened. There’s obviously less excitement around that after the Kentucky game, but on the whole, I’m still intrigued to see if that side of the ball can make a dent.

There’s a lot of guesswork and a few common assumptions when you’re playing number one – win turnovers, hidden points, etc. – but to me, one thing jumps off the page.

This Tennessee team is no stranger to a wide gap between outcomes on a given play. The most obvious one is the difference between the offense and defense on third down: 27th nationally at 45.38% on offense, 126th nationally at 48.39% on defense.

But an even bigger gap in potential outcomes exists when Tennessee drops back to pass.

The Vols and Louisville are tied for the national lead with four 70+ yard pass plays. We’re 16th in 30+ yard pass plays. And that’s all on just 239 passing attempts this season, 107th nationally. Among teams throwing it 25+ times per game, the Vols are eighth nationally in yards per attempt.

And Hendon Hooker has added 458 yards on the ground, going for 60+ in four different games this year.

There is so much good that happens when Tennessee drops back to pass. It’s amazing the Vols are getting all that done while also taking a sack on 13.03% of their dropbacks. That’s 126th nationally via Team Rankings.

Just as the explosive plays look even better when you consider how few times we actually throw it, the sacks look even worse. It also feels like we’re living on borrowed time in the turnover battle, where Tennessee – currently +5 in SEC play – has a chance to finish in the black there for the first time since Lane Kiffin.

Georgia is ninth nationally in sack percentage, getting the opposing quarterback 9.73% of the time. If there’s any benefit here besides having all our guys healthy, it’s that we’ve already played Alabama. Not that Bama was so great at getting Hooker on the ground, but that it’s hard to simulate going against that kind of talent. We saw Josh Heupel repeatedly run it on third-and-short and get buried every time against those guys. You just have to learn and adjust.

Will the Vols make any adjustment to protect Hooker, the ball, etc. against Georgia? Or is this just part of who we are this year: when Tennessee drops back to pass, something incredibly exciting is going to happen one way or another.

Of course, the biggest hope this week:

Kirby Smart on Tennessee offense: "You talk to people…it's just so fast. You can't really simulate that in your practices."
— Marc Weiszer (@marcweiszer) November 8, 2021

Truly, we haven’t been able to simulate any of this. We’re still learning how to watch football this way. We didn’t expect to be this competitive, with everyone. We don’t know how that’ll look against Georgia’s defense. Perhaps they’re not sure exactly how that’ll look against our offense. And we head into a date with the number one team in the nation feeling good about ourselves for the long haul.

What’ll happen Saturday?

Probably something exciting, one way or another.

Go Vols.