Author Archives: Will Shelton

Do you have to win at an elite level before you can recruit at one?

In the last 10 years, 20 different schools signed at least one Top 10 recruiting class (via the 247 Composite):

  • 10x: Alabama
  • 9: Georgia, Ohio State
  • 8: LSU
  • 6: Auburn, Clemson, Michigan, Texas, Texas A&M, USC
  • 5: Notre Dame, Oklahoma
  • 4: Florida, Florida State
  • 2: Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee
  • 1: Miami, UCLA

This list makes sense, right? Wins follow talent, rinse, repeat.

Here’s the question, especially as it relates to Tennessee: how often does talent follow wins?

Do you have to win at an elite level before you can recruit at one? For this exercise, let’s ask it this way: how many programs have signed a Top 10 recruiting class without winning 10+ games in any of the four previous years?

That’s the question for Tennessee’s program right now, sparked by the commitment of Nico Iamaleava, the Vols’ highest-rated prospect since Bryce Brown in 2009. With NIL opportunities and a record-breaking offense, the Vols have momentum.

It didn’t translate into adding more blue chip players into the fold this week, though the Vols have several more on campus this weekend. Missing out on guys we may have talked ourselves into can send the narrative back in the other direction. So maybe it’s helpful to take a more objective look: how realistic is it to expect the Vols to land a Top 10 class before they “prove it” on the field by winning 10+ games?

In the last six years – so 60 Top 10 classes – I count two instances of a program landing a Top 10 class without having won 10+ games in the four previous years (or Texas A&M going 9-1 in 2020).

Let’s start there, in fact: the Aggies finished with the #6 recruiting class in February of 2020. That followed years of 9-4 and 8-5 in Jimbo Fisher’s first two seasons, 8-5 and 7-6 in Kevin Sumlin’s last two. At that point, the Aggies last won 10+ games with Johnny Football in 2012, eight years earlier. Jimbo Fisher, however, won 10+ games at Florida State every year from 2012-2016, including a national championship. That certainly earned them a little extra juice, and A&M paid it off with just one loss in 2020 and a win over Alabama in 2021.

The only other instance in the last 10 years of a team landing a Top 10 class without a recent year of 10+ wins also comes from Texas: the Longhorns finished #3 in the 2018 recruiting rankings. Tom Herman went 7-6 in his first season just before that, and followed three years of seven losses under Charlie Strong. At that point, Texas hadn’t won 10+ games since making the BCS Championship Game in 2009, a nine-year gap. Herman also immediately paid that class off with a 10-4 season in the fall of 2018.

For both Texas in 2018 and Texas A&M in 2020, it wasn’t so much that a ton of true freshmen from one elite class made all the difference, but that the program had real momentum which manifested itself in both recruiting and on fall Saturdays. It became sustained success at A&M, less so for Texas (though shout out to the Mannings).

Either way, these are the only two examples of a program signing an elite recruiting class without a recent season of 10+ wins in the last six years.

So yeah, it’s hard to do and clearly the exception to the rule. The rich tend to get richer in this sport. But Tennessee is a good fit for the kind of “formerly rich” program that could potentially pull it off. We know that’s true, because if you back it up to the last 10 years, you find a few more examples:

  • Texas also signed Top 10 classes in 2015 and 2016 under Charlie Strong, despite having no 10+ win season since 2009
  • Tennessee did it under Butch Jones in 2014 and 2015, despite having no 10+ win season since 2007
  • UCLA and Ole Miss did it in 2013. The Bruins last won 10+ games in 2005. The Rebels did it with Cutcliffe and Eli in 2003.

Is this happening less often these last six years as part of more overall talent consolidation? Could be. Given who is still doing it – and that Tennessee almost did it with Jeremy Pruitt’s 11th-rated class in 2020 – it may be as much resource consolidation as anything.

Maybe the more relevant question for Tennessee is, how different is the challenge facing Josh Heupel right now than the one Butch Jones faced when he signed Top 10 classes in 2014 and 2015? Those groups certainly had the advantage when it comes to proximity to Tennessee’s on-field success. Our last 10+ win season was in 2007. That’s a greater distance than any of these other programs faced. Butch’s classes were also heavier on in-state and legacy kids, an advantage that also becomes weaker the farther you get from on-field success.

But Heupel and company have already landed a bigger fish than any cycle this century other than Bryce Brown in 2009 and Eric Berry in 2007. And those NIL opportunities and the SEC’s overall profile give the current administration some new advantages.

Creating a hardline expectation of a Top 10 class before winning 10+ games on the field seems unrealistic. But believing the opportunity for such a thing can exist at Tennessee? That, thankfully, still appears to be true here. The Vols are 15th in the 2023 ratings right now with only 10 commits. There’s a lot of work left to be done, on and off the field. Nothing will help Tennessee more in recruiting than doing more work on the field; this week was a reminder that you tend not to skip steps in this process, and there are still real stakes in this thing every Saturday.

But the work Tennessee has already done in recruiting, and the surge in competitiveness in year one under this staff, has given the Vols a chance to make that next step in recruiting, even 15 years removed from a 10+ win season. It still speaks to the overall strength of the program, all these years later, that multiple coaches have had those opportunities. And both in recruiting and on Saturdays – and not too many from now – I’m excited to see what this group can do with their chance.

Go Vols.

Vols in the NBA Draft: Finding the Right Fit

The NBA Draft is Thursday, and Kennedy Chandler finds himself in familiar territory for VFLs. In the latest mock drafts, Chandler’s most common landing spot is somewhere in the 20s:

Kennedy Chandler Mock Draft Projections

  • Yahoo: 20th, San Antonio
  • CBS: 22nd, Memphis
  • ESPN: 22nd, Memphis
  • SB Nation: 26th, Dallas
  • The Athletic: 27th, Miami
  • The Ringer: 27th, Miami
  • Bleacher Report: 29th, Memphis
  • USA Today: 38th, San Antonio (Round 2)
  • Sports Illustrated: 39th, Cleveland (Round 2)

A twentysomething pick would put him in the exact same range as the other three picks from the Rick Barnes era: Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer went 21st and 28th last year, and Grant Williams was 22nd in 2019. Throw in Tobias Harris at 19th in 2011, and it’s the approximate range for every Vol taken since Marcus Haislip went 13th in 2002.

Picks in the 20s can be a great friend to the viewer. These picks are slotted for playoff teams, looking for that extra push. For Chandler in this draft, Memphis, Dallas, and Miami are all teams who can talk themselves into the title conversation right away.

The Vols have just three Top 10 picks all time, and none since Dale Ellis in 1983. The program hasn’t necessarily produced guys with instant NBA expectations outside of Ellis, Bernard King (7th), and Allan Houston (11th). But the mid-to-late first round has been good to Tobias Harris and Grant Williams for sure.

It also became a building block for one-and-done players last year. Keon Johnson appeared in 37 games as a rookie, traded from the Clippers to Portland in the middle of the year. Jaden Springer saw action only twice, but a solid year in the G-League could push him back to an NBA roster with the Sixers in 2023. That route continues to provide a path for Barnes-era players like Admiral Schofield (38 games with Orlando this year).

As we’ve written about plenty over the last two months, it’s a gift to have one of your players land on a team that can compete for championships. Grant Williams went to a contender at 22 and found his way into the rotation for three playoff runs. Sometimes there’s also a space where a team is simply too good. Can Yves Pons play in the league? I think that answer can still be yes. Is he good enough to crack the Memphis rotation right now? So far, the answer is not yet.

For Kennedy Chandler, there could be immediate backup point guard opportunities on a playoff team, especially with the hometown Grizzlies picking at 22 and 29. Tennessee’s overall NBA pedigree continues to grow: if Chandler hits in the first round, he’ll be UT’s fourth selection there in the last four years. It took 35 years for the Vols to produce their four prior first round picks (Ellis, Houston, Haislip, Tobias). That’s pretty good progress.

And it’ll feel even better if Chandler lands on a team that gives us a chance to see him earn some playoff minutes.

It’s Steep Out Here

There is no hurt like “we had a chance to win it all” hurt. The pain is a privilege.

This, of course, was not, “Tennessee fans think they have a chance to win it all, but…”. These baseball Vols were number one for months, consistently the best in a way only the Lady Vols can compare to in our own modern history. And whatever your list of most painful Lady Vol losses, they are at least somewhat cushioned by the eight times we didn’t lose.

I’m unqualified to speak on what’s atop that list, and unqualified to speak in fullness of this baseball team. I didn’t watch every game or break down every scenario the way it goes for football and men’s basketball.

But this team made me want to. I bet I’m not alone on that one. And that can pay off nicely for the entire program.

When we do turn to those more familiar endeavors, to me there is no question when discussing which losses are most painful. In football, it’s 2001 in Atlanta, ranked second in the nation and a second half away from playing for a second BCS title in four years.

In basketball, the Vols have never climbed as high when postseason play began, and our losses as two-seeds always seemed easier to understand (even when the reason is, “Ryan Cline hit seven threes.”). To me, the most painful basketball loss is still 2000 North Carolina in the Sweet 16. Those Vols were only a four seed. But the bracket broke wide open, and Tennessee was the highest remaining seed in the region entering the Sweet 16.

There will always be a part of my brain that clings to a 17-7 lead over LSU in the second quarter. There will always be a part that’s up seven with 4:30 to play against North Carolina. And we may indeed find ourselves drawn back to a 3-1 lead on Notre Dame with two outs in the Top of the 7th.

There is no hurt like having a team that can win it all lose a game with a chance to win. The price of courting the mountaintop is the distance you can fall.

And yet, you wouldn’t ask to be anywhere else. For many years, we haven’t even had the option.

Every season tells a story, and I believe you can find something meaningful in all of them. Sometimes it’s your basketball team scratching and clawing to make the NIT (see also: Hamer, Steve). Sometimes it’s a football team leaping back toward relevance much faster than you thought they would.

You hope, of course, that all that meaning is pointed toward the mountaintop. And when you can see it from there – really, truly see it, almost close enough to touch – a fall is going to hurt, like nothing else.

But we’ll climb again.

To what end, we never know for sure. Twenty-one years later, football is yet to come closer to the mountaintop than that night in Atlanta. But from that North Carolina loss in basketball, our best days were ahead of us and not behind.

I’m really grateful to this baseball team, in joining with last year’s to establish an entirely new rhythm for our entire fanbase. What used to be an eight month football offseason has blossomed into championship-caliber programs in basketball and baseball, ground their counterparts on the women’s side have already broken. Now, there are present-tense reasons to invest in Tennessee in almost every month of the year.

This one ended a week too soon. But they established a presence that can carry these spring and summer weeks for years to come.

Go Vols.

Grant Williams Comes Alive in Game 3

Twenty-three years ago, Allan Houston was the last Vol to play rotation minutes in the NBA Finals. He did more than that: Houston would make the All-Star Game the next two seasons and play on the U.S. Olympic team. And he had already been responsible for getting the Knicks past the Miami Heat in round one:

The 1999 season was shortened by a lockout, and a 50-game regular season produced some strange playoff match-ups. That included the Knicks barely getting in as an eight seed, then dispatching the one-seed Heat on Houston’s shot. New York went all the way to the Finals from there, losing Patrick Ewing to injury along the way. Still, anything seemed possible, especially in the first year of a post-Jordan-Bulls league.

Standing in the way were the San Antonio Spurs, a fresh-faced Gregg Popovich making his first Finals appearance. The Spurs took the first two games with relative ease, sending the series to Madison Square Garden for the first time in five years.

In Game 3, Allan Houston exploded: 34 points, four assists, and an 89-81 victory. The stage was set for a compelling series.

But that would be as close as it got: San Antonio won Game 4 by seven, and closed out the Knicks behind 31 points from young Tim Duncan in Game 5. For the Knicks in particular, Houston’s heroics still represent a high point the franchise hasn’t come close to duplicating since.

Grant Williams is not Allan Houston. But he’s now closer to a ring than any rotation Vol in the NBA in these last 23 years. And not only was he vital in Game 7 against Milwaukee in round two, he was involved in a key sequence for Boston in Game 3 last night.

In the first two games, the matchup with Golden State was less ideal for Williams. He averaged 32 minutes in the Milwaukee series and 30 against Miami, but played just 16 minutes in Game 1 of the Finals and 21 minutes in Game 2.

He only got 20 minutes in Game 3, but he made the most of them.

The Celtics were up a dozen at halftime and pushed it to 14 early in the third quarter. It was still at nine midway through the period. That’s when one of the more unusual sequences I’ve ever seen unfolded: Steph Curry hit a three, and Al Horford was called for a foul for being in his landing area. Upon review, the foul was deemed flagrant, giving Curry a four-point play and the Warriors possession…and Otto Porter Jr. buried another three, giving Golden State a seven-point possession. Just like that, a nine point lead was two.

A Curry three actually put Golden State in front, but Boston rallied. The Celtics were back on top 89-86 with 90 seconds to play in the third. And that’s when Grant said hello:

Grant’s offensive rebound and free throw was immediately followed by his corner three, putting Boston back up seven. And his final putback with nine minutes to play put the Celtics back up double figures. All told, Grant finished with 10 points and 5 rebounds. Draymond Green, generally loud and specifically entangled with Williams earlier in the game, fouled out with two points and four rebounds in 35 minutes.

The Celtics are up 2-1, with Game 4 on Friday night. Williams has now appeared in 43 playoff games in his three-year career with the Celtics, moving into fourth place all-time at UT for NBA Playoff appearances:

NBA Playoff Appearances by Former Vols

  1. Dale Ellis, 73 games (17 year career)
  2. Allan Houston, 63 games (12 years)
  3. C.J. Watson, 48 games (10 years)
  4. Grant Williams, 43 games (3 years)

It’s a gift for your favorite Vols to end up on teams that can win championships. The Celtics are two wins away. And if they get there, Grant Williams will have his fingerprints on the trophy in more ways than one.

Success, Relatively Speaking

One of the most interesting and most difficult questions to answer right now is, “What is a successful outcome for this Tennessee baseball team?”

When you’ve been number one for months and you find yourself in best. team. ever. conversations, there’s a version of this answer that goes national championship or bust. That, of course, is a dangerous game to play anytime, but especially given Tennessee’s overall baseball history. The Vols have only been to Omaha four times since 1951, and their last two trips in 2005 and 2021 came with no victories. Win a single game in the College World Series, and you’ve advanced farther than any Tennessee team since 2001. Win two, and you’ve equaled the 1995 Vols as the best of the modern era. (That 1951 squad made the finals out of the loser’s bracket before falling to Oklahoma.)

So there’s a whole conversation about this Tennessee team, one we may not revisit anytime soon. I assume the Vols will continue to compete for championships under Tony Vitello’s leadership. Assuming we’ll see something like this year, every year? That’s less likely, and more reason to celebrate what’s in front of us.

But in the conversation about Tennessee as a program, the Vols are currently achieving on a level the best of the SEC has enjoyed for the last 20+ years.

A year ago this week, when all of this was even more new, we looked at what regular success might look like in baseball. Here’s an updated version of two of those charts, with data via wikipedia:

Super Regional appearances (since 1999)

  • 15: LSU (last in 2021)
  • 13: South Carolina (2018)
  • 10: Arkansas (2022), Florida (2018), Mississippi State (2021), Vanderbilt (2021)
  • 9: Texas A&M (2022)
  • 8: Ole Miss (2022)
  • 4: Auburn (2022), Georgia (2008), Tennessee (2022)
  • 3: Alabama (2010)
  • 1: Kentucky (2017)
  • 0: Missouri

Here again, the history of the best SEC programs under this format suggests making the Super Regionals 2-of-3 years is a good goal. No one does it every year. But if you’re doing it right, you’re getting this far more often than not.

Let’s zoom in here:

Last Two Super Regional Appearances

  • Alabama: 2010, 2006
  • Arkansas: 2022, 2021
  • Auburn: 2022, 2019
  • Florida: 2018, 2017
  • Georgia: 2008, 2006
  • Kentucky: one appearance (2017)
  • LSU: 2021, 2019
  • Ole Miss: 2022, 2021
  • Mississippi State: 2021, 2019
  • Missouri: no appearances
  • South Carolina: 2018, 2016
  • Tennessee: 2022, 2021
  • Texas A&M: 2022, 2017
  • Vanderbilt: 2021, 2019

SEC teams making it two straight Super Regionals this week: Arkansas, Ole Miss, Tennessee. Others hitting the two-in-three-years threshold: Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt. That’s half the league.

Here’s the next part:

College World Series appearances (since 1999)

  • 8: Florida (last in 2018), LSU (2017)
  • 6: Arkansas (2019), South Carolina (2012)
  • 5: Mississippi State (2021), Vanderbilt (2021)
  • 4: Georgia (2008)
  • 3: Tennessee (2022), Texas A&M (2017)
  • 1: Alabama (1999), Auburn (2019), Ole Miss (2014)
  • 0: Kentucky, Missouri

Appearing at least once in the last three years: Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt. Ole Miss and Texas A&M can join that list over the weekend. If so, that would again be half the league.

Zooming out here, should the Vols go back-to-back:

Last Two College World Series Appearances

  • Alabama: 1999, 1997
  • Arkansas: 2019, 2018
  • Auburn: 2019, 1997
  • Florida: 2018, 2017 (four straight back to 2015)
  • Georgia: 2008, 2006
  • Kentucky: never
  • LSU: 2017, 2015
  • Ole Miss: 2014, 1972
  • Mississippi State: 2021, 2019 (three straight back to 2018)
  • Missouri: 1964, 1963 (three straight back to 1962)
  • South Carolina: 2012, 2011 (three straight back to 2010)
  • Tennessee: 2021, 2005
  • Texas A&M: 2017, 2011
  • Vanderbilt: 2021, 2019

With Mississippi State failing to make the field and Vanderbilt out, the Vols would be the only SEC team with an active two-year streak in the College World Series, if they get past Notre Dame. They would become the sixth SEC team to pull off two straight trips to Omaha this century.

And here’s the most fun list of all:

National Championships

  • Florida: 2017
  • Georgia: 1990
  • LSU: 2009, 2000, 1997, 1996, 1993, 1991
  • Mississippi State: 2021
  • Missouri: 1954
  • South Carolina: 2011, 2010
  • Vanderbilt: 2019, 2014
  • Still waiting: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M

SEC teams have won seven of the last twelve championships, and three of the last four. Arkansas just missed in 2018. Five teams are still alive in these Super Regionals to continue those trends.

As a program, Tennessee is on pace with top-tier success for an SEC program over the last two years. The Vols are one of three programs to make back-to-back Super Regionals, and can become the only SEC program to make the College World Series in 2021 and 2022. Winning it would make them the fourth SEC team to bring home a ring in the last five years. The league is very good at this.

Which continues to make what this particular Tennessee team is accomplishing all the more impressive.

Onward and upward. Go Vols.

How hard is it to win an SEC Championship?

If I asked you to guess where Tennessee ranked in SEC Championships in the five biggest sports (football, men’s & women’s basketball, baseball, softball) in the last ten years, what would you say?

We know football is still working on the comeback. We know the Lady Vols aren’t at the peak of their powers. It’s easy for the gray skies of football to cloud the perception of the whole over the last ten years, especially when there’s not a dominant alternative in women’s basketball or elsewhere.

How do the Vols rank in regular season SEC titles in the big five sports over the last ten years?

Tied for fourth.

SEC Regular Season Championships since 2012 Expansion

Since 2012FootballMen’s BballWomen’s BballBaseballSoftballTotal
Florida0203611
Alabama7100210
South Carolina006006
Kentucky040004
LSU110204
Tennessee012104
Arkansas000123
Auburn120003
Mississippi State002103
Texas A&M011002
Vanderbilt000202
Georgia100001
Missouri000000
Ole Miss000000

(data via wikipedia)

The Gators lead the way via spring dominance. Alabama football continues to be the most dominant program in the conference among these five sports, followed closely by Florida softball and South Carolina women’s basketball. Those six for the Gamecocks pull them ahead of 11 other schools in the league by themselves.

But Tennessee’s four regular season SEC titles since expansion are next, tied with Kentucky and LSU. The Lady Vols won the league in 2013 and 2015. Men’s basketball won in 2018. And the baseball team just secured the regular season crown.

Texas A&M has won a pair of conference titles in the big five sports since joining the league. Missouri has won zero. Ole Miss has nothing in the last ten years. And Georgia’s 2017 SEC title is their only mark on the board (though I’m sure they’ll take the trade with Alabama from this past fall).

Only Florida, Alabama, LSU, and Tennessee have won regular season titles in at least three sports in the last ten years. Winning is hard!

It’s an amazing thing to be able to have the, “This is as healthy as our athletic department has been since _________,” conversation right now. For those of us who are old enough to remember, the answer to that question came with a level of success in both football and women’s basketball that may not be repeatable year after year in the current climate. We’ll see.

Either way, what’s happening right now is indeed remarkable, and becomes more so as you expand outward:

It’s also a consistent reflection of who Tennessee has been going backwards:

SEC Regular Season Championships since 1992 Expansion

Since 1992FootballMen’s BballWomen’s BballBaseballSoftballTotal
Florida7608930
LSU5439526
Tennessee23153124
Alabama10202620
Kentucky01311015
Georgia3033211
South Carolina0163111
Auburn331007
Arkansas020327
Vanderbilt010405
Mississippi State012104
Ole Miss001102
Texas A&M011002
Missouri000000

(SEC softball began play in 1997)

Take it all the way back to when women’s basketball began in this league in 1980:

SEC Regular Season Championships since 1980

Since 1980FootballMen’s BballWomen’s BballBaseballSoftballTotal
Florida87011935
LSU77313535
Tennessee54183131
Alabama12303624
Kentucky02121024
Georgia6173219
Auburn7350015
South Carolina0163111
Mississippi State022408
Arkansas020327
Vanderbilt010506
Ole Miss001102
Texas A&M011002
Missouri000000

The only schools to win a championship in all five sports: LSU, Tennessee, and Georgia.

Winning is hard!

A couple of other fun notes from this chart:

  • The least balanced sport in the conference is football. Since 1980, you’ve got haves and have-nots: the six traditional powers all won at least five regular season titles, and no one else has won any. The last time someone other than those six schools won the SEC: Ole Miss in 1963.
  • As dominant as Alabama seems in football now, they’ve got little on Kentucky basketball and the Lady Vols.
  • In men’s basketball, everyone other than Ole Miss and Missouri has won the league at least once since 1980. There’s a similar truth in baseball, with everyone other than Auburn and the new guys from A&M and Missouri taking home at least one prize.

Tennessee has always had a top-rate athletic department in this league, competing for and winning championships in almost every sport. That’s the goal, right?

And right now, even without the full firepower of football or a women’s basketball program that defined the sport? Things have still been pretty good overall, and are trending healthier every day.

Winning is hard. And overall, Tennessee might be better at it than we give them credit for.

What are the most dominant regular seasons in UT’s modern era?

Tennessee’s baseball team begins its final regular season series today at Mississippi State. The defending national champs have struggled this season, 9-18 in league play and fighting to make the SEC Tournament next week. Meanwhile, Tennessee already clinched the SEC title at 22-5, five games up on Arkansas. The Vols are 45-7 overall, the only team in the Top 25 (and, I assume, the nation) with single-digit losses on the year.

We looked last week at the relevant history this baseball team is chasing. It can feel a bit this week like history is the only remaining prize until postseason play begins. But there’s plenty of that to go around, starting with:

Most SEC Regular Season wins (Current 30-game format, 1996-2022)

  1. 26 – 2013 Vanderbilt
  2. 25 – 2000 South Carolina
  3. 23 – 2019 Vanderbilt
  4. 22 – 2022 Tennessee (tied with eight others, three games to play)

Avoid getting swept, and the Vols will have one of the three best regular season records in the SEC in the last 26 years. Sweep the Bulldogs, and the Vols will tie South Carolina for the second-best regular season record in that span.

An obvious truth that bears repeating here: the SEC is good. Like, really good. So anytime you win it – not just in baseball, but in any sport – you celebrate like crazy.

The Vols earned their third SEC regular season championship since 1994 and just their fourth ever. Those Todd Helton teams that went back-to-back in ’94 and ’95 won the SEC by 2 and 1.5 games respectively. The current squad is up five with three to play. There could be more available history here too:

SEC Baseball Largest Championship Margin (Current format)

  1. 5.5 games – 2000 South Carolina
  2. 5 games – 2022 Tennessee (three to play)
  3. 4 games – 2007 Vanderbilt
  4. 3.5 games – 2013 Vanderbilt

Again: celebrate this team because it won the SEC Championship, because that’s incredibly hard to do by itself! But in the midst of that, we’re seeing one of the best regular seasons of any SEC team in the last three decades…which automatically makes it one of the best regular seasons we’ve ever seen on this campus.

In the five biggest sports on campus, here’s how hard it is to win an SEC title:

Tennessee’s SEC Championships since 1980

  • Football: 5 SEC Championships since 1985
  • Men’s Basketball: 4 SEC Championships since 1982
  • Baseball: 3 SEC Championships since 1994
  • Softball: 1 SEC Championship in 2007

Wait for it:

  • Women’s Basketball: 18 SEC Championships since 1980

Okay, hard for almost everyone. That’s 18 for Lady Vol basketball, 13 for the other four biggest sports combined. Word.

So this baseball team is already on a short list on campus, one worthy of celebration no matter what happens in the postseason. Just how high up that list might they go?

Again: the SEC is good. It’s hard to win championships, and even with your best-of-the-best teams, the margins are thin. We often speak of this when some of our very best teams – most recently 2019 men’s basketball – happen to coincide with some of the very best teams at other schools in the same year. The Grant/Admiral ’19 squad went 15-3 in the SEC – two games better than the previous year’s league champions – but LSU went 16-2. See also Spurrier, Steve, etc.

When the Vols have won those regular season championships, it wasn’t easy even with our very best teams. Consider the margins for those champions:

Football

  • 1985: Tied Florida at 5-1, Gators on probation (Florida won head-to-head 17-10)
  • 1989: Three-way-tie with Alabama & Auburn (Vols beat Auburn, Auburn beat Bama, Bama beat Vols)
  • 1990: Florida 6-1, Vols 5-1-1, Gators on probation (Vols won head-to-head 45-3)
  • 1997: SEC East Vols 7-1, Florida & UGA 6-2. Vols beat Auburn 30-29 in Atlanta.
  • 1998: SEC East Vols 8-0, Florida 7-1. Vols beat Mississippi State 24-14 in Atlanta.

With the exception of 1998, every one of those championships was a margin of one game or a split title. The ’98 Vols had the minimum two-game cushion an undefeated season provides in the division, but that was an elite Florida squad we almost saw again in the Fiesta Bowl. And nothing was ever easy for us in the Georgia Dome. Winning is hard.

Men’s Basketball

  • 1982: Tied with Kentucky
  • 2000: Four-way-tie with Florida, Kentucky & LSU
  • 2008: Vols 14-2, two games over Kentucky & Mississippi State at 12-4
  • 2018: Tied with Auburn

Here again, only one of these outcomes had any cushion whatsoever. The 2008 Vols lost at Rupp Arena, and fell to Memorial Magic in the ultimate trap game. Their KenPom rating isn’t as high as the 2019 (or 2022) teams, but they secured the program’s only outright SEC title in my lifetime. Winning is hard!

Baseball

  • 1994: Won by 2 games
  • 1995: Won by 1.5 games
  • 2022: Up 5 with 3 to play

Softball

  • 2007: Swept a double-header vs Alabama on the last day of the regular season to win

Winning is hard!

You have the opportunity for larger margins with more games being played, of course, so a dominant baseball or softball team can look stronger just by the margin. But as we’ve seen, only three SEC baseball teams have won the regular season title by more than three games in the last 26 years. In softball, that 2007 team featured Monica Abbott and was a 10-inning loss away from a national championship. But they needed the final day of the season to win the SEC title.

The ultimate conversation about “best team ever” will be heavily influenced by what happens in the postseason, and rightfully so. But right now, I think you’d put this baseball team on a very, very short list…and one that’s doing to include lots of:

Women’s Basketball

Consider that the Lady Vols won the SEC regular season title by at least three games 10 times from 1995-2011 under Pat Summitt. The record there actually belongs to that 2011 squad: a 16-0 regular season champ, five games ahead of the field. They also won the SEC Tournament, before falling to Notre Dame in the Elite Eight.

Tennessee also won the regular season title by four games in 1998, 2004, and 2010. It’s that ’98 squad that will lead the way in any conversation about dominance: 39-0, with a third straight national championship. I count three single-digit wins in those 39 games: the regular season and SEC Tournament matchups with Alabama, and the Elite Eight comeback over North Carolina. So yeah: the dominance of that group may not be threatened in our lifetimes.

But as we move to the end of the regular season, this baseball team has put themselves in position to enter the holy of holies on campus. It is no exaggeration to put their regular season dominance in the conversation with 1998 football, 2008 men’s basketball, and a host of Lady Vol squads. If they continue to live into their number one ranking, we’ll continue to enjoy riding some outrageous trains of thought about the best teams to ever do it on this campus.

There is lots of fun left to be had here.

Go Vols.

Let It Fly.

Two years ago, Grant Williams entered Game 7 against Toronto with seven minutes to play. This was in the bubble, where things felt like they mattered more because there were fewer other sports to matter at the time. Gordon Hayward was hurt, and Daniel Theis was in foul trouble, so Williams got the call late. He fouled out Kyle Lowry, then missed both free throws, then got a piece of Fred VanVleet’s final three to secure a Boston win. If you’re a Vols & Celtics fan like me, it helped exorcise a demon or two from some Ryan Cline threes that just missed his fingertips.

Grant played 11.5 minutes per game in that second round series, just under 10 in the other two rounds. He played 11.4 in the opening round loss to Brooklyn last season.

And if that’s all it ever was, it would’ve been more than what we’ve often had the chance to see with few Tennessee alumni in the league, especially that individual postseason moment. It’s a gift to have former Vols land on championship contenders.

Allan Houston made the playoffs six years in a row from 1996-2001, including a Finals appearance in 1999. But in the last 20 years, only Williams and three others have seen meaningful playoff action. C.J. Watson made four appearances off the bench from 2011-14. Josh Richardson has been four times, but hasn’t made it out of the first round since his rookie year.

Tobias Harris continues to carry the torch for consistency among post-Houston Vols. In an 11-year career, he’s made the playoffs five times, four in a row now with Philadelphia. He averages 37.5 minutes per game in the postseason and 17.5 points. But the Sixers struggle to break through to the conference finals, having been eliminated in round two in three of the past four years. And Tobias also carries our lone one-and-done success torch, at least for the moment, which means he simply didn’t have time to generate the same amount of memories as Watson, Richardson, or Grant.

Grant and his teams led the way on campus in that department. There was always this sense that his jersey would make its way to the rafters as a two-time SEC Player of the Year. When it did, we’d have conversations about Chris Lofton and other local legends.

But in year three with Boston, Grant started becoming more than just a rotation player with a game-saving sequence in Game 7 two years ago. His minutes increased, getting 24.4 per game in the regular season. The Celtics trimmed their rotation after an 18-21 start, then did so again at the trade deadline, and Williams stayed in it. His defense and three-point shooting improved significantly. And Boston surged to the two seed in the Eastern Conference.

When Grant was a rookie, sometimes he’d get switched onto guys like Anthony Davis. It was wild to watch him go against the best in the world, even if for just a possession.

Now, Grant has picked up Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo in consecutive rounds. Not switched onto; he has been their primary defender when they’ve shared the floor.

What you want for your favorite players is opportunity. Allan Houston was an all-star and played on an Olympic team; who knows if any current or future Vols in the NBA will climb that high. C.J. Watson carved out an impressive role as a reliable backup point guard for years, but didn’t always see the floor in closing time. Josh Richardson and Tobias Harris are getting those opportunities, but so far not on teams that have advanced past the second round.

All of a sudden, here’s Grant getting 31 minutes a night in the playoffs. Robert Williams is banged up, and maybe Boston’s ceiling would be higher with him on the floor right now if that wasn’t the case. Al Horford, 35 years old, turned back the clock earlier in the Milwaukee series with 30 points in Game 4. There are other good options.

But increasingly – in the present, not just an idea for the future – Grant Williams is on the floor for Boston’s most important possessions. He’s played his way into the opportunity to make a difference on both ends of the floor.

It’s what Milwaukee invited him to do in Game 7. After Jayson Tatum dropped 46 points in Game 6, the Bucks doubled down on their interior defense, and gave Grant the green light from the outside. You may recall, he started his rookie year by missing 25 consecutive threes.

You may not recall:

He opened the scoring with a three on Boston’s first possession. He would take 17 more before the day was done.

He was 1-for-4 with six minutes left in the first half, and Boston down five. There’s that old basketball truth about wanting a bad shooter to hit their first one, because they’ll keep shooting.

Grant is not a bad shooter.

He hit another, then missed two more to sit at 2-for-7 late in the first half. With 51.9 seconds to go in the half, he splashed one to give Boston a 45-43 lead. The Celtics never trailed again.

In the first minute of the third quarter, he splashed another to give Boston a 10-point lead. He missed a couple more and was 4-for-11 midway through the third, with the Celtics still up 10. Meanwhile, Giannis was still on the other team, and no lead was safe.

As a Celtics fan who has watched Boston try to go through LeBron since 2008, I’m familiar with the dance of trying to beat the best in the world at their best. You need a long series to have a chance to get something like this, but consider this piece of history over the last seven games:

But Giannis had to go through mountains, including Grant, to get those numbers against Boston. In Game 7, he added 25 points and 20 rebounds, just missing a triple-double with 9 assists. But all of that came on just 9-of-26 shooting. The best player in the world won so many battles, but Boston won the war. And in Game 7, Grant helped lead the charge on both ends of the floor.

Up 10, he splashed a three to make it 68-55 midway through the third. Four minutes later he hit another, and the Celtics went up 16. And then, to open the fourth, one more to put Boston up 16 again.

Boston advances to the Eastern Conference Finals. Grant Williams was the leading scorer in Game 7, tying the NBA record for threes made in a Game 7, while being one of the primary defenders on the best player in the world.

All you can ask for is opportunity. You let it fly from there.

The Celtics go to Miami (a fun team to root against if you’re a neutral Vol fan! Tyler Herro! Bam Adebayo! Jimmy Butler taking shots at Tobias!). If he’s healthy, Grant will play in at least 37 playoff games in his first three seasons. That’s almost twice as may as the next closest Vols on the list (Dale Ellis and Josh Richardson with 19 each in their first three seasons). Bernard King played in two playoff games in his first three years. Allan Houston played in three. C.J. Watson didn’t make the playoffs until year four, Tobias not until year five. Nothing is guaranteed. All you can ask for is opportunity.

And it is such a joy, and a gift, to watch Grant make the absolute most of his.

Available History for Tennessee Baseball

A series loss at Kentucky may have slowed the momentum, but the Vols remain number one in three different polls. Seven weeks atop the polls means the baseball program has now spent more time at number one than our men’s basketball program all-time. And Tennessee locked up the SEC East title over the weekend as well.

Much of Tennessee’s chase within itself goes back to the Todd Helton glory days of 1994-95. Those are the program’s last two league championships, and join 1993 as three straight SEC Tournament titles. The Vols are four games up on Arkansas with six to play, closing at home vs Georgia (13-11 SEC) and at Mississippi State (9-15). Arkansas is home vs Vanderbilt (12-12) and at Alabama (10-14). The Vols and Hogs do not meet in the regular season, which will surely make things spicy should we run into each other in the SEC Tournament. But Tennessee not only controls its own destiny to win the league, but can do so at home this weekend via sweep even if Arkansas does the same.

The more interesting history, at least for the next two weeks, is how far up the recent SEC leaderboard this team can climb.

Those 94-95 Vols were the last of an old scheduling model, which saw each SEC team play eight regular season series, then added the SEC Tournament results to the totals to determine the overall league champion (weird!). The Vols finished 24-5 in 1994 and 22-8 in 1995. Since 1996, SEC teams have played a 30-game, 10-series league schedule. The format held through the additions of Missouri and Texas A&M.

The Vols are currently 20-4 in league play. Under the 30-game format, here are the best to ever do it in this league (records via Wikipedia):

SEC Baseball Best Regular Season Records, 1996-2021

YearChampionRecordPct.Finish
2013Vanderbilt26-30.897Super Regionals
2000South Carolina25-50.833Super Regionals
2019Vanderbilt23-70.767National Champs
1997LSU22-70.759National Champs
1999Arkansas22-80.733Regionals
2007Vanderbilt22-80.733Regional Finals
2010Florida22-80.733College World Series
2011FLA, SC, Vandy22-80.733CWS Finals, Champs, CWS
2021Arkansas22-80.733Super Regionals

So a 5-1 finish for Tennessee would tie 2000 South Carolina as the second-best SEC regular season of the last 26 years. Sweep the next two weekends, and the Vols will tie 2013 Vanderbilt with a best-ever 26 regular season wins.

You’ll also notice, of course, how the situation changes in a hurry. We haven’t been doing this great-at-baseball thing very long, but it looks more like the college basketball conversation every day. Play for and make the breaks as much as you can in the regular season, and celebrate like crazy when you do…and then, when the tournament comes our way, try to score. But there are no guarantees you will.

The 1994 Vols were bounced in the regional finals by Arizona State. The 1995 Vols made it to the College World Series and won a couple of games before bowing out to the eventual champs from Cal State Fullerton. Tennessee also went back to Omaha in 2001, 2005, and last season despite not winning the SEC.

Those two very best teams of the 30-game era? They were both bounced at home in the super regionals. In 2000, South Carolina was the number one overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, swept their way to the super regionals, and beat Louisiana Lafayette 6-3 in the first game. But they fell 7-1 and 3-2 in the next two, coming one win shy of Omaha.

In 2013, a Vanderbilt team with Dansby Swanson and Walker Buehler spent the last five weeks of the regular season ranked #1 or #2, and were the #2 overall seed at tournament time. But they fell to Louisville in two straight games in the super regionals, 5-3 and 2-1.

We watched this happen to Arkansas last year: number one overall seed, beat NC State 21-2 in the opener of the super regional…then lost a pair of one-run games, and it’s over.

Of the 11 SEC teams to win at least 22 regular season games in the last 26 years, only six made it to Omaha. Only three of them won it all. There are no guarantees.

We looked last summer at what regular success in baseball might look like. Half the SEC has made it to Omaha in the last four years; it’s a good expectation for every player to come into your program as a freshman to get there at some point in his career. But making it every year just doesn’t happen, even in this conference:

College World Series appearances (since 1999)

  • 8: Florida (last in 2018), LSU (2017)
  • 6: Arkansas (2019), South Carolina (2012)
  • 5: Mississippi State (2021), Vanderbilt (2021)
  • 4: Georgia (2008)
  • 3: Tennessee (2021), Texas A&M (2017)
  • 1: Alabama (1999), Auburn (2019), Ole Miss (2014)
  • 0: Kentucky, Missouri

We’ll get to that in about three weeks. For now, there is plenty of history and an SEC Championship available for this team in the regular season. We should celebrate that like there’s no tomorrow. And when tomorrow does come, this team will have given itself a great opportunity to make even more history.

Go Vols.

Pass Distribution & New Wide Receivers

The addition of Bru McCoy this week raises the ceiling on our hypothetical offseason conversations. And it was already fairly high given what this offense did last season, even with Velus Jones and Javonta Payton now off to the NFL.

There may be more on the way:

Robinson’s familiarity with Heupel is an obvious plus, and he would give Tennessee another option in a room full of intriguing possibilities. In this fast-paced offense, there’s an idea here that there will be plenty of footballs to go around. Off-season additions can feel like they’re a contribution to a conversation about who the fourth or fifth guy will be.

But at least in year one, the rotation ended up being so much tighter, the better off-season question turned out to be, “Who’s number two?”

Last season Cedric Tillman caught 64 passes, Velus Jones 62. Those two combined for 51.9% of Tennessee’s total receptions, and 63.3% of the receptions among the regular rotation (players catching 10+ passes in 2021). Both of those numbers are higher than anything we’ve seen around here recently:

Top Receiving Duos at UT, 2009-21

SeasonTop 2 Pass CatchersPct. of Receptions
2021Tillman & Velus51.9%
2020Palmer & Gray35.2%
2019Jennings & Palmer46.5%
2018Jennings & Callaway38.1%
2017B. Johnson & Kelly41.1%
2016Malone & Jennings37.8%
2015Pearson & Kamara32.7%
2014Howard & Pearson32.7%
2013Howard & North42.9%
2012Hunter & Patterson41.8%
2011Rogers & Rivera43.0%
2010G. Jones & D. Moore42.9%
2009G. Jones & D. Moore36.9%

Also seeing two players at or close to 50% of the team’s total receptions: UCF under Heupel.

  • 2020: Marlon Williams & Jaylon Robinson, 50.6%
  • 2019: Gabriel Davis & Marlon Williams, 45.4%
  • 2018: Gabriel Davis & Dredrick Snelson, 42.9%

Their 2019 number would also be higher than anything seen at UT in the post-Fulmer era after 2021 and 2019. In the latter, the Vols had the future NFL trio of Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway, and Josh Palmer. How does it look if we expand it to the top three targets:

Top Receiving Trios at Tennessee, 2009-21

SeasonTop 3 Pass CatchersPct. of Receptions
2021Tillman, Velus, Hyatt60.5%
2020Palmer, Gray, Velus47.5%
2019Jennings, Callaway, Palmer61.5%
2018Jennings, Callaway, Palmer51.5%
2017B. Johson, Kelly, Callaway54.4%
2016Malone, Jennings, Kamara54.6%
2015Pearson, Kamara, Malone46.8%
2014Howard, Pearson, Hurd45.2%
2013Howard, North, R. Neal57.1%
2012Hunter, Patterson, Rivera54.4%
2011Rogers, Rivera, D. Arnett53.8%
2010Jones, Moore, Stocker59.2%
2009Jones, Moore, Stocker49.4%

Here, outside of that NFL trio in 2019, last season again separates itself from the pack.

Is there a correlation between the best offenses and diversity of targets? Tyler Bray’s 2012 attack and Josh Dobbs’ 2016 squad were almost identical in the percentage of catches by their top three targets; Bray’s used a tight end Dobbs’ a back.

At UCF, trios were the name of the game in their dynamite offenses in 2018 and 2019:

  • 2018: G. Davis, D. Snelson, T. Nixon 60.7%
  • 2019: G. Davis, M. Williams, T. Nixon 63.5%

So consistently, we’ve seen this coaching staff find its best two or three wide receivers, and ride them to incredible heights all season long.

After two weeks last season, it looked like Tennessee would throw it to the tight end more than ever. But that gave way to a lethal attack involving Velus, Tillman, plus Javonta Payton 18 times for 413 yards.

Jaylin Hyatt actually ended the season with three more receptions than Payton. He caught four passes against Bowling Green in the opener, then didn’t catch a pass until the South Carolina game. His 17 catches over the last eight games made for a nice quartet of options at receiver for Tennessee’s offense, along with 34 combined receptions for Jacob Warren and Princeton Fant.

One consistent truth last season: after the running back being the #3 receiver throughout the Butch Jones era, Heupel’s offense almost never looked their way in the passing game. With just 20 total receptions for backs last season, the Vol offense fell generally in line with what they saw at UCF. Otis Anderson had 31 catches as a back in 2019; no other back had more than 20 in a season during his time there.

This coaching staff loves receivers, and loves finding the best of their best. I would assume it’ll still be important to figure out who the fourth option is in this passing game. But if form holds, the real question at this point is who will be number two.