Author Archives: Will Shelton

Here we go.

How many games will the Vols win this year? Our favorite way to find our what you really think is back: the Gameday on Rocky Top Expected Win Total Machine launches today, and will be back every week throughout the season.

Enter your percentage guess for each game in the table below (something closer to 100 for Ball State, something closer to…not zero for Alabama or Georgia). Once you submit all your totals, you’ll get your expected win total for Tennessee’s regular season. We’ll keep tabs for the entire community and report back with how we’re all feeling later this week.

When we ran this after spring practice, our community total was 8.1 expected wins. I’m curious to see how that may have changed as we move toward game week.

Enjoy. Go Vols.

Tennessee’s greatest area for potential improvement is in sack rate. Vol quarterbacks went down on nearly 10.5% of their pass attempts, the highest percentage at UT in the post-Fulmer era. It continues to amaze that Hendon Hooker still threw just three interceptions on 300+ passing attempts, a Tennessee record.

On the other side of the ball, where can Tennessee improve the most? When teams get in the red zone, keep them out of the end zone.

Last year the Vols finished 119th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. Opponents had 50 possessions in the red zone against the Vol defense, and scored touchdowns on 36 of them. It stands out in Tennessee’s losses, as you’d expect:

Opponent	Red Zone	TDs
Pittsburgh	7	5
at Florida	5	4
Ole Miss	4	3
at Alabama	7	7
Georgia	4	3
vs Purdue	6	2

Sometimes, you just get beat by a really good team. Against Georgia, there was little opportunity for any of those drives to go differently once they reached the red zone, where bent = broken.

But in each of the other games, there was at least one really good opportunity for Tennessee’s defense to get off the field. It’s these plays – the ones that can make the biggest impact on the scoreboard – that could make the biggest difference in Tennessee’s defensive improvement this year.

Pittsburgh

• The Panthers got on the board by opening the second quarter with a touchdown on 3rd-and-10 from the 11. This cut Tennessee’s lead to 10-7, and was the first of five straight scoring drives for Pitt.

Florida

• On their opening possession, the Gators converted a pair of 3rd-and-4s in the red zone to cap off a touchdown drive.

Ole Miss

• After the fumbled punt in the first quarter, Ole Miss was backed up to 3rd-and-14 at the 15, but a defensive holding penalty extended the drive and set up a touchdown.
• Leading 17-9 in the second quarter, Ole Miss converted a 3rd-and-10 at the 12, punching it in two plays later for a 15-point lead.

Alabama

• With the Vols leading 14-7, Alabama converted a 3rd-and-Goal at the 5 for a tying touchdown
• On their next drive, Bama converted 3rd-and-7 at the 17, eventually taking the lead
• On the last play of the third quarter, Bama had 2nd-and-12 at the 14. They gained eight yards, then Bryce Young ran in for the score on 3rd-and-4 at the 6, making it 31-17.

The good news: against Purdue, Tennessee’s defense turned the Boilermakers away three times in the second quarter. Though they later allowed a touchdown on 3rd-and-Goal from the 10, their red zone work – perhaps less affected by a thin secondary? – was a vast improvement.

Still, that’s nine conversions of 3rd-and-4+ in the red zone in our six losses. And overall, only four opponent drives came away with zero points in the red zone: two against South Alabama, a garbage time drive against South Carolina, and one of the most impactful plays of the year:

If you’re looking for meaningful improvement, there’s plenty of opportunity here. Whoever the Vols are playing close games against this year, these are the plays that can end up making the difference. Will Tennessee’s overall depth make a significant difference here? And will we see this defense able to impose its will and turn more teams away entirely?

Look, when exactly am I supposed to go to the bathroom during these games?

I raised this concern last year, but that was me assuming I’d only have trouble at Neyland. Listen, this offense is so fast, I can’t go in my own home in peace. I will buy anything with that Power T on it, but adult diapers might be the last straw with my wife. Might also be an untapped source of revenue for our athletic department too though.

And I can’t go when players on the other team fake injuries, because I’m too consumed with that white hot rage. Tried to tell y’all bout that Kiffin feller when everybody wanted to go down that road again after Jeremy. I don’t have no conflicting emotions with that guy, ‘cept for the rage and the restroom.

But God bless Josh Heupel for having one of our boys take a little nap after we kick an extra point. Not only is it a victimless crime, it is actively helping us know when it’s safe to go. I truly appreciate that.

And boys, we’re gonna kick a lot of extra points.

If dudes from Bama think we’re goin’ 10-2, that’s 12-0 easy. Y’all think about all the reasons we wanted to believe in these other fellas. The one because he said “britches”, the other cause he said, “aight?” You know why I believe in Josh Heupel? It’s because I watched us score 62 points on Missouri in like five minutes. We scored 28 points before we played a third down, then scored a 35-yard touchdown on the first one. And then, just when I was feeling a little “I don’t know about all this now” about those black uniforms? They put a 35-0 lead on South Carolina the very next week. And listen, one of those teams got Dan Mullen fired, and the other is doing Steve Spurrier’s proverbial cartwheels to be 6-6! When I tell y’all we were three referees away from 10 wins last year, you know I’m telling a higher percentage of the truth than usual!

Also, “I don’t know about all this now,” is what I said about that NIL stuff. Then we got Nico, and now I have taken on a third job to support the ministries of Spyre. I am genuinely concerned about getting a little bored, fellas. I mean, we’re clearly gonna win it all this year, then add the best quarterback in the nation next year? At least if I’m bored, I can use the restroom.

And we’ve already got the best quarterback in the nation this year! Hendon threw fewer interceptions than Peyton By God Manning last season, and no one really even knows what they’re doing in year zero one! He’s gonna come in second in the Heisman for sure. Cedric Tillman might come in third.

Then I hear people saying things like, “How much defense do we even need to play?” And I mean, sure, the real answer is, “One point less than we score,” which means we need to hold opponents to approximately 99 points per game. But fellas, y’all don’t think we’re gonna be better on that end too? We already know Jeremy Banks picked Hendon in a scrimmage, which should automatically qualify him for third-team All-American, at least. Byron Young and Tyler Baron off the edge?

And listen, some of these dudes are grownups. Trevon Flowers turns 23 round about the SEC Championship Game. Hendon turns 25 (!) a week after we win the natty. Old age ain’t just for John Fulkerson. Does Spyre have a pension plan?

Who’s gonna beat us? Who’s gonna threaten us? My greatest hope in the Pitt game is that we get up so much, they let Joe Milton get in there and throw a couple touchdowns, then just start launching balls into the state of Ohio just for fun.

And listen, Florida? We should’ve beaten those guys in ’14, ’15, got ’em in ’16, ’17…so when you say, “They’ve won 16 out of 17!” I hear, “Yeah, but we would’ve won most of those games easy if we had Heupel!” They ain’t no good. I’m making plans right now for where we’re going to celebrate after it’s over, and deep down? So are you.

LSU? We won the last two times we were in Baton Rouge when the game was over the first time! I’m not sure if there will be any Brian Kelly jokes left after they play Florida State, Mississippi State, and Auburn before us. But we’re coming off a bye, so we might score 150.

Bama? Y’all know we almost beat them last year when Hendon gave his all for Tennessee by getting half his teeth knocked out, right? And still threw for 282 and three touchdowns? Imagine what he can do with a full set of teeth!

Kentucky? Wait ’til basketball season. And Georgia? Let me just say, we had three second half drives against those guys that ended inside their 40 yard line. We were close, boys. We were close.

After we do all that, I’m supposed to be concerned about Missouri and South Carolina? If it wasn’t abundantly clear last time, I’m pretty sure we’ll once again make Mrs. Drinkwitz question her husband’s commitment to winning. And South Carolina will probably get to 7-5 this year, maybe add some backflips to the routine, good for them. Maybe we’ll be up less than 35-0 this time.

In Atlanta, y’all do what you want, but if I had my way, we’d get another shot at Ole Miss. I believe Jeremy’s currently unemployed, I don’t think Arkansas State can make the playoff, and Dooley got Butch’s old job as an “analyst” with Saban. But we can still right this wrong with Lane. We can still right a lot of wrongs.

We all know by now that winning the SEC is the real challenge, so pick whoever in the playoff and take the Vols and the over. 15-0, National Champions, son.

And I don’t know about you, but that thing is looking a little wobbly.

A few months ago we looked at pass distribution under Josh Heupel at UT and UCF. The big takeaway there: in spite of playing at a faster pace, the wide receiver rotation under Heupel tends to be tighter. Last season Velus Jones and Cedric Tillman had 51.9% of Tennessee’s receptions, the highest total for a UT duo in the post-Fulmer era. Numbers were similar at Central Florida.

So I kind of expected something like this for running backs as well. Tennessee had its first scrimmage yesterday, and with Len’Neth Whitehead out for the year and Lyn-J Dixon on the roster, there’s renewed interest in who will back up Jabari Small.

But once you start digging into the numbers, it’s easy to see there’s much less of a “backup” situation in Heupel’s offense.

Total Percentage of RB Carries at Tennessee (Heupel, Pruitt, Butch)

2021	Jabari Small	37.74%
2020	Eric Gray	54.90%
2019	Ty Chandler	38.46%
2018	Tim Jordan	37.61%
2017	John Kelly	61.76%
2016	Jalen Hurd	35.36%
2015	Jalen Hurd	62.39%
2014	Jalen Hurd	56.89%
2013	Rajion Neal	58.11%

In the last nine seasons, the lead back at UT got 55+% of the total RB carries five times. Jalen Hurd was on his way to making it six before he left the team in 2016. And Jim Chaney had a history of involving multiple guys, but leaned heavily on Eric Gray in his final season at UT.

Jabari Small was dinged up a couple times last year, and could’ve seen his numbers climb higher. He didn’t play against Tennessee Tech, then left the Missouri game after just three carries and missed South Carolina the next week. Perhaps closer to full strength, he had a season high 26 carries against Purdue.

There’s no shortage of excitement about Jabari Small in 2022 coming out of scrimmage one:

That dude.@SwainEvent explained on today's show why Tennessee RB Jabari Small has a chance to break out in a big way this football season.

Listen for more #Vols info here: https://t.co/YPVu883xZ2 or anywhere you listen to podcasts. pic.twitter.com/Esg0oEFE2w

— Josh and Swain (@JoshandSwain) August 9, 2022

So there’s reason to believe Small could just take off with this thing and, when combined with Hendon Hooker and Tennessee’s passing game, the UT offense is in sensational hands. But when you look at Heupel’s history, those hands have always included at least one other running back getting significantly involved, and often more than one:

(if the chart looks weird, turn your phone sideways)

Total Percentage of RB Carries under Josh Heupel, 2018-21

Year	Team	RB Carries	RB	Carries	Pct.
2021	Tennessee	371	Jabari Small	140	37.74%
			Jaylen Wright	85	22.91%
			Tiyon Evans	81	21.83%
2020	UCF	365	Greg McCrae	149	40.82%
			Otis Anderson	125	34.25%
			B. Thompson	73	20.00%
2019	UCF	418	Otis Anderson	113	27.03%
			Greg McCrae	98	23.44%
			B. Thompson	87	20.81%
			Adrian Killins	87	20.81%
2018	UCF	431	Adrian Killins	147	34.11%
			Greg McCrae	133	30.86%
			Taj McGowan	71	16.47%

Under Jeremy Pruitt and Butch Jones, the number one back got 55+% of the RB carries more often than not. Under Josh Heupel, the number one back got 40+% of the carries just once.

Maybe some of this is more carries for backups in blowouts. But even in Jabari Small’s season-high 26 carries against Purdue, Jaylen Wright still got 17 carries. The only time the Vols really rode one guy: Jabari Small had 21 carries against Ole Miss, with both Tiyon Evans and Jaylen Wright out. Marcus Pierce got two carries in the fourth quarter.

In this offense, you want your top guy to be great. But you’re still going to need at least your number two, and historically, for much more than we’re used to seeing from the number two at UT. Alvin Kamara had 29.86% of the RB carries in 2016. I don’t think the Vols have an Alvin Kamara as their backup this year. But whoever it is, history says he’s going to get a higher percentage of carries.

And we may not have a 2019 UCF scenario, where the top guy is really four guys. But again, even if Small is both great and healthy, Tennessee is going to need quality touches from its number two. History says the #2 RB matters way more than the #4 WR in this offense.

So…who’s it gonna be?

August isn’t always for the rational. Hope will thrive on campuses across the nation this month, so long as health allows. Everyone is undefeated until August 27 (Nebraska/Northwestern in Ireland! Vanderbilt at Hawaii!). The rest of us will make it until a weekend beginning in just 27 days, when the Vols will help open the festivities on Thursday night.

There is always excitement this time of year. But this one feels unusually high, especially entering a coach’s year two. We’ve had our share of those in the last 15 years; they’re usually marked by some form of, “I think we’ll be better this year, and I’m curious to see how much.” But the Vols were better last year, and by much more than we imagined play-for-play. Tennessee is 18th in Athlon’s preseason Top 25, 11th in Phil Steele’s power poll, and ninth in SP+. I’m curious to see where the Vols land when the “official” polls come out soon.

So there’s normal August excitement, and then there’s this. And this is even a bit tempered by an incredibly successful year on campus across the board: men’s basketball flirted with their best season ever in KenPom, and baseball had their best regular season ever by just about any standard. We’re not overhyping Tennessee because we’ve been hyper-focused on football for too long.

This is, for sure, “I’m ready to get hurt again,” territory. But that’s the beauty of it! Hope is dangerous! And it’s great!

And sometimes, it pays off.

Rarely in the last 15 years, to be sure. But our question for the moment is, where does the current level of optimism rank among those others? How does your current confidence compare to where it’s been? And probably most important: where should it be?

Here are 10 moments from the last 15 years when we thought we might be onto something, ranked by overall confidence. This is my list; as always, your mileage may vary. But we’d love to know where your current confidence might fall on this list.

Top 10 “We might be back!” Moments of the post-Fulmer Era

Honorable Mention: 2009 Georgia

Not included, because in October 2009 you could tell yourself that we were really only rebuilding instead of doing whatever you want to call the last 15 years.

How long did it last? Through the rest of Lane Kiffin’s first season, until it became Lane Kiffin’s only season.

10. 2012 NC State

Take an anxious off-season after the 2011 loss to Kentucky, one of the most consequential outcomes of the last 15 years. Add in Cordarrelle Patterson and mix it all together in the Georgia Dome. Tennessee’s 35-21 season opening victory over NC State featured 524 yards of offense and tantalizing possibilities.

How long did it last? Two weeks later the Vols were back in the Top 25 for the first time since preseason 2008. We took a 20-13 lead over Florida midway through the third quarter in Knoxville, then stopped a fake punt on the ensuing drive. The Vols had 1st-and-10 at the Florida 47 with 4:45 to play in the third.

That’s how long it lasted. Tyler Bray was hit with intentional grounding on the next play and the Vols punted. From there, Florida had four plays of 30+ yards the rest of the way, including touchdowns of 80 and 75 yards, putting 24 points on the board in the last 18 minutes of play. Sal Sunseri’s defense became a huge question that never got answered.

9. 2014 South Carolina

The only reason this one isn’t higher is because of what happened earlier in the 2014 season, a little further down our list. I still think this is one of the most rewatchable games of the last 15 years, signaling the arrival of Josh Dobbs as Tennessee’s full-time quarterback for the next 2.5 years with 301 through the air and 166 on the ground. And it carries far less of the “yeah, but” quality that marks some of the other games on this list because they didn’t last as long.

How long did it last? The Vols went to 4-5 with this win, and though they came up short to eventual East champs Missouri, they did get bowl eligible, then rocked Iowa in Jacksonville. So in part, this one lasted until the 2015 Oklahoma/Florida sequence.

8. 2018 Auburn

A ranked road win for Jeremy Pruitt in year one. The Vols used the underdog playbook, getting turnovers and a defensive touchdown to secure a 30-24 victory over the Tigers. Not bad for a team that had lost its previous three meetings with ranked teams by 26 points.

How long did it last? After getting rocked by Alabama, the Vols lost a close one at South Carolina. But they rebounded to beat #12 Kentucky 24-7, moving to 5-5. It felt like we were one win away from a lot of things at that point…and then we lost to Missouri by 33 and Vanderbilt by 25.

7. 2011 Cincinnati

Another highly rewatchable game, and still one of the greatest individual performances by a quarterback at UT. Tyler Bray went 34-of-41 for 401 yards and four touchdowns, and Derek Dooley’s Vols beat Butch Jones’ Bearcats 45-23.

How long did it last? The next week in Gainesville, Florida scored on their opening drive, and Justin Hunter blew out his knee on Tennessee’s. Tyler Bray broke his thumb against Georgia two weeks later.

6. 2020 Missouri

Nothing sexy about the individual win, though Eric Gray and Ty Chandler combined for 195 on the ground. But this made eight wins in a row for the Vols (four of them by one possession over Kentucky, Missouri, Indiana, and South Carolina, he said ominously in hindsight…). Due to the pandemic, the Vols were in the Top 15 for the first time since 2007.

How long did it last? At least 30 minutes at Georgia the next week. The next 30 minutes could’ve been written up to Georgia’s talent. The next week vs Kentucky could not.

5. 2014 Week of the Florida game

The 2014 Vols smashed internet darlings Utah State 38-7 in the opener. They were game at Oklahoma for a while before falling. And they almost, almost got Georgia in Athens before falling 35-32. Meanwhile, Will Muschamp was on the hot seat: 4-8 in 2013, then a three overtime survivor against Kentucky, then lost 42-21 to Alabama. The game was in Knoxville, we checkered Neyland for the first time (eight years ago, hard to believe!), third down for what, all of that. We didn’t just think we were going to win. We thought we were going to exorcise. “Every star that could possibly be aligned is burning our shade of orange,” he wrote foolishly.

How long did it last? Florida won 10-9.

4. Right Now

A lot of what’s written up there is about hearts and feelings and the alignment of stars. A lot of what’s being said right now is about power rankings and efficiency (and five star recruits!). This team beat Missouri by 38 and South Carolina by 25 last year. They already got the ranked road win. And to some degree, their version of heartbreak is somewhat rightfully defined by conversations about officiating instead of questions about management. In SP+, the 2021 Vols were the second-best Tennessee team of the last 15 years. And yet, by our old standards, these Vols haven’t done anything yet. And it’s August, and we’re prone to think a lot of things. But one of those things I think: there’s more reason to believe in Tennessee right now than at any point in the last 15 years, save three:

3. 2013 Georgia & South Carolina

A Smokey Gray almost, followed by a ranked win for Butch Jones in year one after none for Derek Dooley. In the moment, with recruiting rankings backing it up, you had more reason to believe the program was on its way than at any point since Kiffin left. And even looking back, that South Carolina team is still the best team this program has beaten in 15 years (#11 at kickoff, #4 in the final poll). We’ll make that point a lot the first time this team gets a Top 15 win.

How long did it last? Justin Worley got hurt against Alabama the next week, sending true freshman Josh Dobbs into the fray. The 2013 schedule is maybe the hardest in program history, sending Dobbs against the East champs from Missouri and the almost-national champs from Auburn. Still, I think these good vibes lasted until the Vanderbilt game, when bowl eligibility was frustratingly lost.

2. 2015 Northwestern

The clear pinnacle of good football vibes lasting a long time. When the Vols torched #15 Northwestern 45-6 in the Outback Bowl, it was our largest margin of victory over a ranked team in 25 years. And more than anything, with the Vols bringing almost everyone back, it set aside the heartbreak of early 2015, and set our sights squarely on championship aspirations for 2016. This was a fun eight months to be a Tennessee Vol.

How long did it last? See below, but I can assure you it stopped being as much fun about 75% of the way through the Appalachian State game.

1. 2016 Florida/Georgia

The clear pinnacle of the last 15 years, a height matched only by its fall. Six years later, the “yeah, but” of two otherwise incredibly rewatchable games is an inescapable part of their story. Still, these games are the champ until Tennessee beats someone more meaningful. And when the Vols do finally escape the wilderness, perhaps we can look back on these two weeks much more fondly, and appreciate them for what they are.

How long did it last? There was enough grace for 351570 turnovers the next week at Texas A&M, and even facing one of the best defenses of all time from Alabama. But the loss at South Carolina cost the Vols the East, and the loss at Vanderbilt cost the Vols the Sugar Bowl. And that meant the cost of losing was ultimately higher than the joy of winning, leaving 2016 like many other years on this list: some great individual moments that could never quite be strung together enough to make the memories of great seasons.

Where would you put right now on this list?

Outside of the tempo-infused stats, the best thing Tennessee did last year was Hendon Hooker’s three interceptions on 303 pass attempts. That number is even more impressive considering how often Hooker was sacked.

Last season the Vols allowed 44 sacks, 124th nationally. And this too wasn’t just a function of Tennessee playing fast: 44 sacks with 376 total passing attempts (Hooker + Milton) means Vol quarterbacks went down on 10.48% of passing plays. That’s the highest total in the post-Fulmer era:

Tennessee Sack Rate Allowed 2009-2021

Year	Sacks Allowed	Passing Att	Sack %
2021	44	376	10.48%
2020	29	285	9.24%
2019	21	360	5.51%
2018	23	297	7.19%
2017	35	319	9.89%
2016	25	379	6.19%
2015	24	371	6.08%
2014	43	453	8.67%
2013	15	344	4.18%
2012	8	477	1.65%
2011	18	400	4.31%
2010	41	419	8.91%
2009	18	401	4.30%

If safety in the passing game was Tennessee’s greatest strength, keeping quarterbacks upright is Tennessee’s greatest area for improvement. And just a little progress can go a very long way.

The Vols lost Cade Mays to the NFL, but bring back everyone else up front. Figuring out who wins the tackle spot opposite Darnell Wright will be a huge piece of the puzzle in fall camp.

Sacks were costly in some of Tennessee’s biggest moments last year. Before the 4th-and-24 against Ole Miss, the Vols had 1st-and-10 at midfield. But a sack and a holding penalty on consecutive plays put the Vols in the aforementioned hole. With a chance to put Kentucky away late, Hooker was sacked twice from 2nd-and-Goal at the 5, ultimately leading to a missed field goal. Driving into Georgia territory late in the third quarter, a pair of sacks ended Tennessee’s chance to keep the game within reach.

Good news: this isn’t a problem Josh Heupel’s teams had at UCF. It isn’t a function of the offense with quarterbacks holding the ball longer than usual, etc. Tennessee struggled in this department in 2020 as well, and hasn’t had a sack rate lower than 5% since the 2013 line that sent Ja’Wuan James and Zach Fulton to the NFL.

For all the good – and the great! – Tennessee’s offense did last year, there’s an opportunity for even more improvement here that could go a long way in keeping drives alive, producing even more points and even more separation. How much better will Tennessee’s pass protection be in 2022?

This is Monday. Next Monday is August. We’re close.

In these final few weeks before kickoff, we’re taking a look at the things Tennessee did very best…and very worst in 2021. There are places for celebration, as well as a moment to ask if we’ll see such greatness again this year. And there are places for obvious improvement, where even a little difference can go a long way.

Let’s start with a word about tempo. The Vols led college football in plays per minute and points per minute, two of many facts whose solidification was lost in the immediate aftermath of the Purdue game. Instead of getting to talk about historic records falling, we got to talk about referees, everyone’s favorite topic. Tennessee was also 127th nationally in defensive snaps allowed, and trailed only Michigan State among teams playing 13 games. So there are plenty of Tennessee’s raw numbers that require that caveat: more snaps = more numbers, etc.

Setting pace aside, the thing Tennessee did very best last season: Hendon Hooker threw just three interceptions on 303 passing attempts.

Only Hooker and Bo Nix had three or fewer interceptions on 300+ passing attempts in college football last year; Nix gets the slight edge and the new SEC record with three picks on 323 attempts. Drop it to 250+ attempts, and it’s still a list with only those two, Dequan Finn at Toledo, and Brendon Lewis at Colorado on it.

Hooker was able to take down several Tennessee passing records last season, in part due to what Josh Heupel’s offense sets up for its quarterback. We looked at some of these going into the Music City Bowl, where Hooker easily finished off the school record for yards per attempt. He stayed just north of Erik Ainge for the single-season completion percentage record.

But the most impressive number is those three interceptions. That’s less than one percent of his total passing attempts. And according to the 2021 media guide, the previous UT and SEC record was held by the guy now at #2 on this list:

Tennessee QB Interception Percentage, 1992-2021

Year	QB	ATT	INT	PCT
2021	Hooker	303	3	0.99%
1995	Manning	380	4	1.05%
2018	Guarantano	246	3	1.22%
2015	Dobbs	344	5	1.45%
1992	Shuler	224	4	1.79%
2007	Ainge	519	10	1.93%
2003	C. Clausen	412	9	2.18%
1998	Martin	267	6	2.25%
2002	C. Clausen	310	7	2.26%
1997	Manning	477	11	2.31%
2020	Guarantano	166	4	2.41%
2011	Bray	247	6	2.43%
2001	C. Clausen	354	9	2.54%
2006	Ainge	348	9	2.59%
2012	Bray	451	12	2.66%
1993	Shuler	285	8	2.81%
2005	R. Clausen	209	6	2.87%
1999	Martin	305	9	2.95%
2008	Crompton	167	5	2.99%
2000	C. Clausen	194	6	3.09%
2019	Guarantano	257	8	3.11%
1996	Manning	380	12	3.16%
2014	Worley	252	8	3.17%
2016	Dobbs	357	12	3.36%
2009	Crompton	384	13	3.39%
2013	Worley	196	8	4.08%
1994	Manning	144	6	4.17%
2017	Dormady	137	6	4.38%
2010	Bray	224	10	4.46%
2004	Ainge	198	9	4.55%

Anytime we’re breaking Peyton Manning records, we’re doing something right. And you’ll also notice the bottom of the list belongs to true freshmen, including Manning as well. More recently, you’ll note one of the big off-season conversations from 2015 to 2016: will they let Dobbs throw it downfield more? The 2015 Vols were more content to bludgeon, and with Dobbs + Hurd + Kamara it wasn’t a bad plan. But Tennessee and Mike DeBord did take more chances the following year, in part because they had to with defensive difficulties. The Vols turned that into more big plays, but also seven more interceptions.

With Heupel’s offense, there isn’t much concern about getting even more aggressive. That’s part of what makes Hooker’s year so impressive. And finding that explosiveness while minimizing risk is an incredible combo, one Heupel was able to duplicate at UCF:

• 2018: McKenzie Milton 2.08% (6 INTs on 289 attempts)
• 2019: Dillon Gabriel 1.76% (7 INTs on 398 attempts)
• 2020: Dillon Gabriel 0.97% (4 INTs on 413 attempts)

That last number, you’ll note, is even a smidge better than Hooker’s.

Is #5 going to throw more than three interceptions this year? I mean, the starting point is so low it’s hard to take the under. But if the Vols can continue to operate with this level of precision + explosiveness in the passing game? That’s a clear path to more success, and perhaps to individual honor for Hooker.

And it’s even more impressive considering the thing Tennessee was very worst at, which we’ll look at next.

Here’s something that caught my eye from media days this week:

Cole Cubelic of SEC Network told me in interview that Tennessee might be third best team in SEC. We'll play that interview later today in SportsTalk. Also Roman Harper of SEC Network said UT might be SEC's third best team and maybe Alabama's toughest opponent.

— Jimmy Hyams (@JimmyHyams) July 19, 2022

One thing about this conversation: the team that should be the consensus “third best” team in the league, Texas A&M, isn’t on our schedule. So to some degree, it doesn’t matter whether you think the Vols or Aggies is better on December 1, unless we’re both in Atlanta.

But this conversation could come into play when it’s time to consider postseason destinations.

Bowls are always a fickle way to judge the success of one’s season; there’s so little control Tennessee or anyone else has if you find yourself in the SEC’s group of six bowls (“Outback”, Gator, Music City, Liberty, Texas, and Las Vegas this year, alternating seasons with the Belk/Mayo). The Vols haven’t made it north of this tier since playing in the Cotton Bowl in 2004; with that game now in the CFP rotation, the Citrus Bowl in 2001 is really the most recent comparison.

Two of the most straightforward ways to identify success – bowl destination and division championship – could both look quite different in a couple years. But for now, getting to the “Outback” (one appearance in the last 15 years) or the Citrus (none in the last 21 years) would be a clear indicator of a successful season for Tennessee.

And if the Vols are really the third best team in the SEC? They could go even higher than that.

How good do you have to be to make the Sugar Bowl?

We’re eight years in with the College Football Playoff. Every three years, the Sugar Bowl hosts a national semifinal. The other two years, including this fall, New Orleans gets the highest-ranked SEC team that isn’t in the semifinals. In 2017 and 2021, the league got two teams into the semifinals; I’m sure many preseason projections for this fall will put Alabama and Georgia there again.

So, historically speaking, who makes the Sugar Bowl as the SEC’s designated team?

• 2015: Ole Miss (9-3, #12 CFP poll)
• 2016: Auburn (8-4, #17 CFP poll)
• 2018: Georgia (11-2, #6 CFP poll, lost in Atlanta)
• 2019: Georgia (11-2, #5 CFP poll, lost in Atlanta)
• 2021: Ole Miss (10-2, #8 CFP poll)

We know that 2016 story well, when the Vols were a win at Vanderbilt away from making it themselves at what would’ve been 9-3. As we’ll see, that season itself was an outlier, with everyone who wasn’t Alabama finishing with at least four losses. But in general, if you get to 9-3 or better? You’re going to come in for a nice landing:

What happens to SEC teams who finish at least 9-3?

• 2021: Alabama (12-1, CFP), Georgia (12-1, CFP), Ole Miss (10-2, Sugar), Kentucky (9-3, Citrus)
• 2020: Alabama (11-0, CFP), Georgia (7-2, Peach), Florida (8-3, Cotton), Texas A&M (8-1, Orange)
• 2019: LSU (13-0, CFP), Georgia (11-2, Sugar), Florida (10-2, Orange), Alabama (10-2, Citrus), Auburn (9-3, Outback)
• 2018: Alabama (12-0, CFP), LSU (9-3, Fiesta), Georgia (11-2, Sugar), Florida (9-3, Peach), Kentucky (9-3, Citrus)
• 2017: Alabama (11-1, CFP), Georgia (12-1, CFP), Auburn (10-3, Peach), LSU (9-3, Citrus)
• 2016: Alabama (13-0, CFP)
• 2015: Alabama (12-1, CFP), Ole Miss (9-3, Sugar), Florida (10-3, Citrus), Georgia (10-3, Gator), LSU (9-3, Texas)
• 2014: Alabama (12-1, CFP), Mississippi State (10-2, Orange), Ole Miss (9-3, Peach), Missouri (10-3, Citrus), Georgia (9-3, Belk)

In eight years of the playoffs, 33 SEC teams have had three or fewer losses on selection Sunday. Of that group, only four made something “less” than the Citrus Bowl. And only 2019 Auburn went down that path in the last six years.

So from a Tennessee perspective, not only would a 9-3 regular season give you the best record in Knoxville in the last 15 years, it should send you to a bowl destination of Citrus or better. And depending on what happens at the tippy-top of the league, it could send you somewhere even better.

If we again see Alabama and Georgia both in the playoff, could a 9-3 Tennessee have the league’s next-best resume? It’s on this level that games like Texas A&M/Miami, Arkansas/Cincinnati, and without question Tennessee/Pitt come into play.

So on the surface, it may seem like it doesn’t matter if you think Tennessee is better than Texas A&M (or Arkansas!). The Vols are good enough to first pursue the idea of success through the lens of giving themselves a chance to compete for the SEC East title.

But beneath all of that, keep your eyes on the bowl projections. A 9-3 finish and Orlando for the Vols? One or both of those would automatically give you the best season in 15+ years.

Next week, somebody is going to be picked second in the SEC East. Maybe it’ll be the Vols, maybe not. But I would anticipate Tennessee being close enough to warrant conversation.

That’s not really a goal, of course. You don’t get a silver medal. If the Vols have a successful 2022 season, that won’t be how we describe it. But the journey to such a finish can provide a clear opportunity for the kind of season we’re looking for.

Some ten years ago, we started ranking Tennessee’s most important games going into each season. Even then, in Derek Dooley’s final season, you can see the argument: it’s not which wins would be worth most, in which case Alabama and Georgia vault to the top of the list. It’s more about that team’s particular path to success: back then, we had NC State at number two, with Dooley feeling heat heading into year three and the Vols in desperate need of a good start.

The game at number one on that list has been the game at number one almost every year going back somewhere between 10-30 years:

Florida

It would be easier to think of when the Gators haven’t been viewed as Tennessee’s most important game going into the season. Once the Vols broke a 10-year Alabama streak in 1995, the Tennessee/Florida game vaulted to the top of our lists and our hearts. Since then, when has it not been the Gators? Maybe when Miami was the defending national champion and Ron Zook moved to Florida in 2002. Maybe when Mark Richt firmly established Georgia as a power after beating the Vols four years in a row for 2004-05. And there have been a few times when the Gators were perceived as simply too good for the Vols to realistically catch in the midst of coaching change; maybe only Jeremy Pruitt’s 2018 squad, with Dan Mullen also in year one, could really look at Florida as their biggest game in year one.

Last summer, we would’ve viewed a win like South Carolina or Kentucky as “more important” on the front end. But Josh Heupel’s team did more than a good enough job to get the Gators back at the top of our list in year two, even before Mullen’s season spiraled and Florida turned their own staff over.

Tennessee, as you know, has one win over Florida since 2004, and even that one has six years and two coaching staffs of mileage on it. Beating the Gators at any point would be a success for Tennessee right now. It would create one of the strongest memories any Vol coach has secured in the post-Fulmer era, and Heupel would have a chance to do it early in year two. It doesn’t always go that way, even when you feel like it’s gonna. But it certainly can this year, in a game the Vols might even be favored in for the first time since ducks pulled trucks.

It always starts here. It’s where it can go next that helps define importance to me:

LSU & Kentucky

You can go in any order here. LSU is the national power, a meaningful win for the Vols in any year. Stumble against Florida and Pittsburgh, it’s your chance to right the ship. Beat one or both of those teams, and it’s a chance to stay in the national conversation. The LSU game will function to some degree like the Texas A&M game in 2016: it can’t do it for you by itself, but it can set the course for what comes next.

Kentucky fans are surely telling themselves they should have three consecutive wins over us. The program has elevated itself to a place where they might earn those second place votes. And the seeds of rivalry have always been there via basketball season. The Vols catch LSU coming off a bye; Kentucky catches us in the same fashion.

For Tennessee fans, it will seem easier to overlook the Cats because of what comes next. But it’s this sequence of games that gives the next one a chance to matter most.

Georgia

If you think we’re ready for this kind of fun, then sure, Georgia’s the most important game on the schedule because it’s the one that gives you the best chance to win the East.

I think that’s an unfair conversation headed into year two against the defending national champions. But I wouldn’t shy away from the opportunity. And that’s why I’d look at an absolute success like this: beat Florida, LSU, and Kentucky, and you’ll go to Athens on November 5 with a chance to move into first place in the SEC East. No matter what you did against Alabama. (Or Pittsburgh.)

It’s all hypothetical about whether Tennessee can beat Georgia at this point. But if you want that opportunity to really count, you get there by way of Florida, LSU, and Kentucky.

The composite recruiting rankings at 247 go back to 2000. That February, the Vols signed five five-stars – pretty good! – including Michael Munoz, Jason Respert, and Casey Clausen. The next two years, Tennessee signed three five-stars each February, giving the program 11 five-stars from 2000-2002.

From 2003-2023, the program has 14 five-stars. And the Vols have never signed more than two in the same class since ’02.

Even getting two became a rare feat. After that run in the early 2000s, each Vol coach (more or less) had just one signing class that included a pair of five stars:

• Phillip Fulmer did it in 2007 with Eric Berry and Ben Martin
• Some combination of Lane Kiffin and Derek Dooley did it in February 2010 with Da’Rick Rogers and Ja’Wuan James
• Butch Jones did it in 2015 with Kahlil McKenzie and Kyle Phillips
• Jeremy Pruitt did it in 2019 with Darnell Wright & Wanya Morris

And now, Josh Heupel happily joins the list with Nico Iamaleava and Chandavian Bradley.

To some degree, it speaks to the power of Tennessee’s program that each coaching staff made this happen, despite the ongoing struggles on the field. It’s rare for a program to recruit at a Top 10 level without winning 10+ games first.

One thing that’s increasingly been an issue for Tennessee, and maybe for everyone via the transfer portal: getting your highest-rated recruits to actually become your highest-rated players over multiple years.

Nico and Bradley look like they’ll be the top two players in this year’s class. Addison Nichols and Tyre West will see action for the first time this fall as the highest-rated players in the Class of 2022. Before them, the players at the top of Tennessee’s board haven’t always turned into sure things, even beyond the most recent coaching turnover:

• 2021: Aaron Willis (portal), Kaemen Marley (portal)
• 2020: Keyshawn Lawrence (portal), Omari Thomas
• 2019: Darnell Wright, Wanya Morris (portal)
• 2018: J.J. Peterson (portal), Alontae Taylor
• 2017: Trey Smith, Ty Chandler (portal)

Chandler and Morris started for the Vols over multiple seasons before transferring out. Jarrett Guarantano would be on this list from 2016, joining other names like Marquez North and Da’Rick Rogers who did some really good things in a Tennessee uniform, but whose careers ultimately led elsewhere.

And, as we know, coaching changes can lead to wipeouts of entire classes of elite prospects. Pruitt’s highest-rated class in 2019 thankfully retains Darnell Wright, who has a chance to be one of Tennessee’s best players this fall. But its next three highest-rated players were Wanya Morris, Henry To’oTo’o, and Quavaris Crouch. The 2020 group thankfully retains Omari Thomas, who will have a chance to make a big impact on the defensive line this fall. But three of its four highest-rated players were Keyshawn Lawrence, Harrison Bailey, and Malachi Wideman.

And the calendar worked hard against the 2021 group, with early signees inking with Jeremy Pruitt in December 2020 before he was let go in January of 2021. Aaron Willis, Kaemen Marley, Kaidon Salter, and Julian Nixon have all left the program.

So that’s all four of Tennessee’s highest-rated signees in 2021, three of four in 2020, and three of four in 2019 who left the program.

Don’t underestimate the job this current staff is doing.

The transfer portal shows no signs of disappearing, and the portal can giveth too: Hendon Hooker is one of many examples of how the Vols used the portal to speed up a rebuild that could have been otherwise crippling.

In the meantime, Heupel is recruiting at the peak of what any of his post-Fulmer predecessors were able to accomplish with five-stars. Despite x number of years of struggle, Tennessee can clearly still attract and earn commitments from the best in college football. If Heupel can simply provide stability, more of those players might stick around longer than we’ve seen with the last group. And there is plenty of excitement that this staff will do far more than just be stable.

Go Vols.