Will Shelton, Author at Gameday on Rocky Top

Making Progress: Sack Rate

Outside of the tempo-infused stats, the best thing Tennessee did last year was Hendon Hooker’s three interceptions on 303 pass attempts. That number is even more impressive considering how often Hooker was sacked.

Last season the Vols allowed 44 sacks, 124th nationally. And this too wasn’t just a function of Tennessee playing fast: 44 sacks with 376 total passing attempts (Hooker + Milton) means Vol quarterbacks went down on 10.48% of passing plays. That’s the highest total in the post-Fulmer era:

Tennessee Sack Rate Allowed 2009-2021

Year	Sacks Allowed	Passing Att	Sack %
2021	44	376	10.48%
2020	29	285	9.24%
2019	21	360	5.51%
2018	23	297	7.19%
2017	35	319	9.89%
2016	25	379	6.19%
2015	24	371	6.08%
2014	43	453	8.67%
2013	15	344	4.18%
2012	8	477	1.65%
2011	18	400	4.31%
2010	41	419	8.91%
2009	18	401	4.30%

If safety in the passing game was Tennessee’s greatest strength, keeping quarterbacks upright is Tennessee’s greatest area for improvement. And just a little progress can go a very long way.

The Vols lost Cade Mays to the NFL, but bring back everyone else up front. Figuring out who wins the tackle spot opposite Darnell Wright will be a huge piece of the puzzle in fall camp.

Sacks were costly in some of Tennessee’s biggest moments last year. Before the 4th-and-24 against Ole Miss, the Vols had 1st-and-10 at midfield. But a sack and a holding penalty on consecutive plays put the Vols in the aforementioned hole. With a chance to put Kentucky away late, Hooker was sacked twice from 2nd-and-Goal at the 5, ultimately leading to a missed field goal. Driving into Georgia territory late in the third quarter, a pair of sacks ended Tennessee’s chance to keep the game within reach.

Good news: this isn’t a problem Josh Heupel’s teams had at UCF. It isn’t a function of the offense with quarterbacks holding the ball longer than usual, etc. Tennessee struggled in this department in 2020 as well, and hasn’t had a sack rate lower than 5% since the 2013 line that sent Ja’Wuan James and Zach Fulton to the NFL.

For all the good – and the great! – Tennessee’s offense did last year, there’s an opportunity for even more improvement here that could go a long way in keeping drives alive, producing even more points and even more separation. How much better will Tennessee’s pass protection be in 2022?

Best of the Best: Fewest Interceptions

This is Monday. Next Monday is August. We’re close.

In these final few weeks before kickoff, we’re taking a look at the things Tennessee did very best…and very worst in 2021. There are places for celebration, as well as a moment to ask if we’ll see such greatness again this year. And there are places for obvious improvement, where even a little difference can go a long way.

Let’s start with a word about tempo. The Vols led college football in plays per minute and points per minute, two of many facts whose solidification was lost in the immediate aftermath of the Purdue game. Instead of getting to talk about historic records falling, we got to talk about referees, everyone’s favorite topic. Tennessee was also 127th nationally in defensive snaps allowed, and trailed only Michigan State among teams playing 13 games. So there are plenty of Tennessee’s raw numbers that require that caveat: more snaps = more numbers, etc.

Setting pace aside, the thing Tennessee did very best last season: Hendon Hooker threw just three interceptions on 303 passing attempts.

Only Hooker and Bo Nix had three or fewer interceptions on 300+ passing attempts in college football last year; Nix gets the slight edge and the new SEC record with three picks on 323 attempts. Drop it to 250+ attempts, and it’s still a list with only those two, Dequan Finn at Toledo, and Brendon Lewis at Colorado on it.

Hooker was able to take down several Tennessee passing records last season, in part due to what Josh Heupel’s offense sets up for its quarterback. We looked at some of these going into the Music City Bowl, where Hooker easily finished off the school record for yards per attempt. He stayed just north of Erik Ainge for the single-season completion percentage record.

But the most impressive number is those three interceptions. That’s less than one percent of his total passing attempts. And according to the 2021 media guide, the previous UT and SEC record was held by the guy now at #2 on this list:

Tennessee QB Interception Percentage, 1992-2021

Year	QB	ATT	INT	PCT
2021	Hooker	303	3	0.99%
1995	Manning	380	4	1.05%
2018	Guarantano	246	3	1.22%
2015	Dobbs	344	5	1.45%
1992	Shuler	224	4	1.79%
2007	Ainge	519	10	1.93%
2003	C. Clausen	412	9	2.18%
1998	Martin	267	6	2.25%
2002	C. Clausen	310	7	2.26%
1997	Manning	477	11	2.31%
2020	Guarantano	166	4	2.41%
2011	Bray	247	6	2.43%
2001	C. Clausen	354	9	2.54%
2006	Ainge	348	9	2.59%
2012	Bray	451	12	2.66%
1993	Shuler	285	8	2.81%
2005	R. Clausen	209	6	2.87%
1999	Martin	305	9	2.95%
2008	Crompton	167	5	2.99%
2000	C. Clausen	194	6	3.09%
2019	Guarantano	257	8	3.11%
1996	Manning	380	12	3.16%
2014	Worley	252	8	3.17%
2016	Dobbs	357	12	3.36%
2009	Crompton	384	13	3.39%
2013	Worley	196	8	4.08%
1994	Manning	144	6	4.17%
2017	Dormady	137	6	4.38%
2010	Bray	224	10	4.46%
2004	Ainge	198	9	4.55%

Anytime we’re breaking Peyton Manning records, we’re doing something right. And you’ll also notice the bottom of the list belongs to true freshmen, including Manning as well. More recently, you’ll note one of the big off-season conversations from 2015 to 2016: will they let Dobbs throw it downfield more? The 2015 Vols were more content to bludgeon, and with Dobbs + Hurd + Kamara it wasn’t a bad plan. But Tennessee and Mike DeBord did take more chances the following year, in part because they had to with defensive difficulties. The Vols turned that into more big plays, but also seven more interceptions.

With Heupel’s offense, there isn’t much concern about getting even more aggressive. That’s part of what makes Hooker’s year so impressive. And finding that explosiveness while minimizing risk is an incredible combo, one Heupel was able to duplicate at UCF:

2018: McKenzie Milton 2.08% (6 INTs on 289 attempts)
2019: Dillon Gabriel 1.76% (7 INTs on 398 attempts)
2020: Dillon Gabriel 0.97% (4 INTs on 413 attempts)

That last number, you’ll note, is even a smidge better than Hooker’s.

Is #5 going to throw more than three interceptions this year? I mean, the starting point is so low it’s hard to take the under. But if the Vols can continue to operate with this level of precision + explosiveness in the passing game? That’s a clear path to more success, and perhaps to individual honor for Hooker.

And it’s even more impressive considering the thing Tennessee was very worst at, which we’ll look at next.

A successful season through the eyes of bowl projections

Here’s something that caught my eye from media days this week:

Cole Cubelic of SEC Network told me in interview that Tennessee might be third best team in SEC. We'll play that interview later today in SportsTalk. Also Roman Harper of SEC Network said UT might be SEC's third best team and maybe Alabama's toughest opponent.
— Jimmy Hyams (@JimmyHyams) July 19, 2022

One thing about this conversation: the team that should be the consensus “third best” team in the league, Texas A&M, isn’t on our schedule. So to some degree, it doesn’t matter whether you think the Vols or Aggies is better on December 1, unless we’re both in Atlanta.

But this conversation could come into play when it’s time to consider postseason destinations.

Bowls are always a fickle way to judge the success of one’s season; there’s so little control Tennessee or anyone else has if you find yourself in the SEC’s group of six bowls (“Outback”, Gator, Music City, Liberty, Texas, and Las Vegas this year, alternating seasons with the Belk/Mayo). The Vols haven’t made it north of this tier since playing in the Cotton Bowl in 2004; with that game now in the CFP rotation, the Citrus Bowl in 2001 is really the most recent comparison.

Two of the most straightforward ways to identify success – bowl destination and division championship – could both look quite different in a couple years. But for now, getting to the “Outback” (one appearance in the last 15 years) or the Citrus (none in the last 21 years) would be a clear indicator of a successful season for Tennessee.

And if the Vols are really the third best team in the SEC? They could go even higher than that.

How good do you have to be to make the Sugar Bowl?

We’re eight years in with the College Football Playoff. Every three years, the Sugar Bowl hosts a national semifinal. The other two years, including this fall, New Orleans gets the highest-ranked SEC team that isn’t in the semifinals. In 2017 and 2021, the league got two teams into the semifinals; I’m sure many preseason projections for this fall will put Alabama and Georgia there again.

So, historically speaking, who makes the Sugar Bowl as the SEC’s designated team?

2015: Ole Miss (9-3, #12 CFP poll)
2016: Auburn (8-4, #17 CFP poll)
2018: Georgia (11-2, #6 CFP poll, lost in Atlanta)
2019: Georgia (11-2, #5 CFP poll, lost in Atlanta)
2021: Ole Miss (10-2, #8 CFP poll)

We know that 2016 story well, when the Vols were a win at Vanderbilt away from making it themselves at what would’ve been 9-3. As we’ll see, that season itself was an outlier, with everyone who wasn’t Alabama finishing with at least four losses. But in general, if you get to 9-3 or better? You’re going to come in for a nice landing:

What happens to SEC teams who finish at least 9-3?

2021: Alabama (12-1, CFP), Georgia (12-1, CFP), Ole Miss (10-2, Sugar), Kentucky (9-3, Citrus)
2020: Alabama (11-0, CFP), Georgia (7-2, Peach), Florida (8-3, Cotton), Texas A&M (8-1, Orange)
2019: LSU (13-0, CFP), Georgia (11-2, Sugar), Florida (10-2, Orange), Alabama (10-2, Citrus), Auburn (9-3, Outback)
2018: Alabama (12-0, CFP), LSU (9-3, Fiesta), Georgia (11-2, Sugar), Florida (9-3, Peach), Kentucky (9-3, Citrus)
2017: Alabama (11-1, CFP), Georgia (12-1, CFP), Auburn (10-3, Peach), LSU (9-3, Citrus)
2016: Alabama (13-0, CFP)
2015: Alabama (12-1, CFP), Ole Miss (9-3, Sugar), Florida (10-3, Citrus), Georgia (10-3, Gator), LSU (9-3, Texas)
2014: Alabama (12-1, CFP), Mississippi State (10-2, Orange), Ole Miss (9-3, Peach), Missouri (10-3, Citrus), Georgia (9-3, Belk)

In eight years of the playoffs, 33 SEC teams have had three or fewer losses on selection Sunday. Of that group, only four made something “less” than the Citrus Bowl. And only 2019 Auburn went down that path in the last six years.

So from a Tennessee perspective, not only would a 9-3 regular season give you the best record in Knoxville in the last 15 years, it should send you to a bowl destination of Citrus or better. And depending on what happens at the tippy-top of the league, it could send you somewhere even better.

If we again see Alabama and Georgia both in the playoff, could a 9-3 Tennessee have the league’s next-best resume? It’s on this level that games like Texas A&M/Miami, Arkansas/Cincinnati, and without question Tennessee/Pitt come into play.

So on the surface, it may seem like it doesn’t matter if you think Tennessee is better than Texas A&M (or Arkansas!). The Vols are good enough to first pursue the idea of success through the lens of giving themselves a chance to compete for the SEC East title.

But beneath all of that, keep your eyes on the bowl projections. A 9-3 finish and Orlando for the Vols? One or both of those would automatically give you the best season in 15+ years.

A successful season through the eyes of Tennessee’s most important games

Next week, somebody is going to be picked second in the SEC East. Maybe it’ll be the Vols, maybe not. But I would anticipate Tennessee being close enough to warrant conversation.

That’s not really a goal, of course. You don’t get a silver medal. If the Vols have a successful 2022 season, that won’t be how we describe it. But the journey to such a finish can provide a clear opportunity for the kind of season we’re looking for.

Some ten years ago, we started ranking Tennessee’s most important games going into each season. Even then, in Derek Dooley’s final season, you can see the argument: it’s not which wins would be worth most, in which case Alabama and Georgia vault to the top of the list. It’s more about that team’s particular path to success: back then, we had NC State at number two, with Dooley feeling heat heading into year three and the Vols in desperate need of a good start.

The game at number one on that list has been the game at number one almost every year going back somewhere between 10-30 years:

Florida

It would be easier to think of when the Gators haven’t been viewed as Tennessee’s most important game going into the season. Once the Vols broke a 10-year Alabama streak in 1995, the Tennessee/Florida game vaulted to the top of our lists and our hearts. Since then, when has it not been the Gators? Maybe when Miami was the defending national champion and Ron Zook moved to Florida in 2002. Maybe when Mark Richt firmly established Georgia as a power after beating the Vols four years in a row for 2004-05. And there have been a few times when the Gators were perceived as simply too good for the Vols to realistically catch in the midst of coaching change; maybe only Jeremy Pruitt’s 2018 squad, with Dan Mullen also in year one, could really look at Florida as their biggest game in year one.

Last summer, we would’ve viewed a win like South Carolina or Kentucky as “more important” on the front end. But Josh Heupel’s team did more than a good enough job to get the Gators back at the top of our list in year two, even before Mullen’s season spiraled and Florida turned their own staff over.

Tennessee, as you know, has one win over Florida since 2004, and even that one has six years and two coaching staffs of mileage on it. Beating the Gators at any point would be a success for Tennessee right now. It would create one of the strongest memories any Vol coach has secured in the post-Fulmer era, and Heupel would have a chance to do it early in year two. It doesn’t always go that way, even when you feel like it’s gonna. But it certainly can this year, in a game the Vols might even be favored in for the first time since ducks pulled trucks.

It always starts here. It’s where it can go next that helps define importance to me:

LSU & Kentucky

You can go in any order here. LSU is the national power, a meaningful win for the Vols in any year. Stumble against Florida and Pittsburgh, it’s your chance to right the ship. Beat one or both of those teams, and it’s a chance to stay in the national conversation. The LSU game will function to some degree like the Texas A&M game in 2016: it can’t do it for you by itself, but it can set the course for what comes next.

Kentucky fans are surely telling themselves they should have three consecutive wins over us. The program has elevated itself to a place where they might earn those second place votes. And the seeds of rivalry have always been there via basketball season. The Vols catch LSU coming off a bye; Kentucky catches us in the same fashion.

For Tennessee fans, it will seem easier to overlook the Cats because of what comes next. But it’s this sequence of games that gives the next one a chance to matter most.

Georgia

If you think we’re ready for this kind of fun, then sure, Georgia’s the most important game on the schedule because it’s the one that gives you the best chance to win the East.

I think that’s an unfair conversation headed into year two against the defending national champions. But I wouldn’t shy away from the opportunity. And that’s why I’d look at an absolute success like this: beat Florida, LSU, and Kentucky, and you’ll go to Athens on November 5 with a chance to move into first place in the SEC East. No matter what you did against Alabama. (Or Pittsburgh.)

It’s all hypothetical about whether Tennessee can beat Georgia at this point. But if you want that opportunity to really count, you get there by way of Florida, LSU, and Kentucky.

How rare are multiple five-stars at Tennessee?

The composite recruiting rankings at 247 go back to 2000. That February, the Vols signed five five-stars – pretty good! – including Michael Munoz, Jason Respert, and Casey Clausen. The next two years, Tennessee signed three five-stars each February, giving the program 11 five-stars from 2000-2002.

From 2003-2023, the program has 14 five-stars. And the Vols have never signed more than two in the same class since ’02.

Even getting two became a rare feat. After that run in the early 2000s, each Vol coach (more or less) had just one signing class that included a pair of five stars:

Phillip Fulmer did it in 2007 with Eric Berry and Ben Martin
Some combination of Lane Kiffin and Derek Dooley did it in February 2010 with Da’Rick Rogers and Ja’Wuan James
Butch Jones did it in 2015 with Kahlil McKenzie and Kyle Phillips
Jeremy Pruitt did it in 2019 with Darnell Wright & Wanya Morris

And now, Josh Heupel happily joins the list with Nico Iamaleava and Chandavian Bradley.

To some degree, it speaks to the power of Tennessee’s program that each coaching staff made this happen, despite the ongoing struggles on the field. It’s rare for a program to recruit at a Top 10 level without winning 10+ games first.

One thing that’s increasingly been an issue for Tennessee, and maybe for everyone via the transfer portal: getting your highest-rated recruits to actually become your highest-rated players over multiple years.

Nico and Bradley look like they’ll be the top two players in this year’s class. Addison Nichols and Tyre West will see action for the first time this fall as the highest-rated players in the Class of 2022. Before them, the players at the top of Tennessee’s board haven’t always turned into sure things, even beyond the most recent coaching turnover:

2021: Aaron Willis (portal), Kaemen Marley (portal)
2020: Keyshawn Lawrence (portal), Omari Thomas
2019: Darnell Wright, Wanya Morris (portal)
2018: J.J. Peterson (portal), Alontae Taylor
2017: Trey Smith, Ty Chandler (portal)

Chandler and Morris started for the Vols over multiple seasons before transferring out. Jarrett Guarantano would be on this list from 2016, joining other names like Marquez North and Da’Rick Rogers who did some really good things in a Tennessee uniform, but whose careers ultimately led elsewhere.

And, as we know, coaching changes can lead to wipeouts of entire classes of elite prospects. Pruitt’s highest-rated class in 2019 thankfully retains Darnell Wright, who has a chance to be one of Tennessee’s best players this fall. But its next three highest-rated players were Wanya Morris, Henry To’oTo’o, and Quavaris Crouch. The 2020 group thankfully retains Omari Thomas, who will have a chance to make a big impact on the defensive line this fall. But three of its four highest-rated players were Keyshawn Lawrence, Harrison Bailey, and Malachi Wideman.

And the calendar worked hard against the 2021 group, with early signees inking with Jeremy Pruitt in December 2020 before he was let go in January of 2021. Aaron Willis, Kaemen Marley, Kaidon Salter, and Julian Nixon have all left the program.

So that’s all four of Tennessee’s highest-rated signees in 2021, three of four in 2020, and three of four in 2019 who left the program.

Don’t underestimate the job this current staff is doing.

The transfer portal shows no signs of disappearing, and the portal can giveth too: Hendon Hooker is one of many examples of how the Vols used the portal to speed up a rebuild that could have been otherwise crippling.

In the meantime, Heupel is recruiting at the peak of what any of his post-Fulmer predecessors were able to accomplish with five-stars. Despite x number of years of struggle, Tennessee can clearly still attract and earn commitments from the best in college football. If Heupel can simply provide stability, more of those players might stick around longer than we’ve seen with the last group. And there is plenty of excitement that this staff will do far more than just be stable.

Go Vols.

Tennessee’s 10 Best Performances vs Expectations

Earlier this week, we revisited our list from last summer of Tennessee’s best and worst surprises. Using data from Phil Steele’s all access online, we tracked the Vols against the spread going all the way back to 1985, looking for the games they most over-and-under-performed. On Tuesday, we did the ten worst. Today: the fun part.

Tennessee’s 10 Best Performances Against the Spread, 1985-Present

9a. 1993 South Carolina: favored by 20, won 55-3

9b. 1993 at Kentucky: favored by 16, won 48-0

Heath Shuler’s Vols were not to be trifled with. In the Steve Tanneyhill revenge game, Charlie Garner had a 60-yard touchdown run on the second play of the game, and the Vols never looked back. The ’93 Kentucky squad made the Peach Bowl, the Cats’ first postseason appearance in nine years. Tennessee destroyed them 48-0. Again, this team is the program’s high-water mark in SP+ in the last five decades for a reason.

8. 1989 at UCLA: 15-point underdogs, won 24-6

The genesis of Tennessee’s “decade” of dominance from 1989-2001. In week two, the Bruins were ranked sixth and hosted the Vols on a late night in Pasadena. UCLA went for it on 4th-and-1 at the UT 37 on their opening drive, and the defense held. From there, the Vols introduced the world to freshman tailback Chuck Webb: 134 yards and two scores, plus 78 more from Reggie Cobb. The program was off and running, en route to back-to-back SEC titles in 1989-90, and more to come. Read more from the LA Times.

6a. 1985 vs Miami (Sugar Bowl): 7-point underdogs, won 35-7

One of the most famous nights in the history of Tennessee football. I was four years old, so I carry no memories from the game itself, but spent much of the next four years being shown the highlights on that old SugarVols VHS tape, before the ’89 team made its own memories.

6b. 2004 vs Texas A&M (Cotton Bowl): 4-point underdogs, won 38-7

Tennessee was the higher-ranked team, but the Vols were down to third-string quarterback Rick Clausen. No matter: he went 18-of-27 for 222 yards with three touchdowns, and the Vol defense ambushed the Aggies in forcing five turnovers. This capped a 10-3 season, still the last time the Vols lost fewer than four games in a year.

5. 2010 Ole Miss: favored by 2.5, won 52-14

Tyler Bray’s coming out party in Knoxville. When we first looked at this list last summer, we noted this game as the high-water mark against the spread in the post-Fulmer era, and talked about the power of a team finding its quarterback. There are no guarantees, of course: Bray’s revelation at the end of his freshman year led to an injury as a sophomore and a bunch of high-scoring losses as a junior. But that late span created real momentum for the program going forward, something Hendon Hooker knows a thing or two about…

3a. 1985 at Kentucky: favored by 4, won 42-0

As good as the Sugar Bowl romp over #2 Miami was, the ’85 Vols were even better relative to expectations in the Bluegrass that year. When Tony Robinson went down to injury and was replaced at quarterback by Daryl Dickey, the Vols took some time to restart the offense. They tied Georgia Tech 6-6 and only scored 17 points in a win at Memphis State. Kentucky came into this one playing for bowl eligibility, and beat the Vols in Knoxville the year before. Not this time: the 42-0 shutout moved the Vols into the Top 10.

3b. 1990 Florida: favored by 4, won 45-3

Here’s the high-water mark in Neyland Stadium. Up 7-3 at halftime, Dale Carter took the second half kickoff to the house, and engaged the floodgates. The Vols routed Steve Spurrier’s Gators in a Top 10 clash, making this the benchmark for blowouts in both rivalry and elite competition categories. This is the fourth appearance for a Johnny Majors team in this Top 10.

2. 2021 at Missouri: 2.5-point underdogs, won 62-24

Maybe the Missouri game isn’t your dominant image from last fall; the win over South Carolina was in Knoxville, and it felt like we were beating a better team in the moment. The win at Kentucky was a ranked dub in a close game. But historically speaking, this one is incredibly significant. Going back to at least 1985, we’ve only seen one game where the Vols over-performed expectations via Vegas better than this. And for a Tennessee program that just saw its worst performance relative to expectation the previous season? There was credibility earned here on a level that we hadn’t experienced from a year one coach, a delightful surprise that we might look back on as a tone-setter for something more. From last fall: Announce My Presence With Authority.

1. 1994 at Vanderbilt: favored by 12, won 65-0

The largest margin of victory via shutout in modern UT history. Total yards: Tennessee 655, Vanderbilt 212. The Commodores came into this one 5-5 and looking for bowl eligibility. Instead, they got this. Freshman Peyton Manning was hitting his stride, but this day was as much about the talent gap as anything. Overperforming the spread by 53 points, this is far and away Tennessee’s best performance relative to expectation at kickoff since at least 1985.

Tennessee’s Best & Worst Surprises, Revisited

Last summer, we looked at some of Tennessee’s best and worst surprises in the post-Fulmer era. We used UT’s performance relative to expectations: how much did Tennessee over-or-under-perform against the spread?

In the negative department, four of Tennessee’s five worst performances against the spread post-Fulmer came from 2017-2020, and each of those happened in Knoxville. There’s a reason it felt the way it did walking out of the stadium.

So then, we wondered how much a good surprise might be worth to Josh Heupel in year one. And that’s exactly what we got: the Vols went to Missouri at +2.5 on October 2, and won 62-24. That 40.5-point over-performance was the best of the post-Fulmer era, topping Tyler Bray’s coming out party in Knoxville against Ole Miss in 2010 (a 52-14 win at -2.5). And it was indeed no fluke: the Vols over-performed the line by 14.5 points the very next week against South Carolina, and off we went.

I don’t know if the Missouri game is your dominant image from 2021. But historically, it might be the most significant outcome from last fall.

So looking forward to 2022, I celebrated two holidays this weekend: Independence Day, and Phil Steele’s arrival. If you love stats and history, I highly recommend his online access, which includes every team’s performance against the spread going back some 40 years. So I spent some time these past few days digging deeper than just the post-Fulmer era on these questions: what are Tennessee’s best and worst performances against the spread? And how high on those lists do the struggles of 2017-2020 and the unexpected delight of 2021 rank?

I went back as far as 1985, using that SEC Championship season as a benchmark for both my lifespan and our modern conversation. We’ll save the best for last, and look at Tennessee’s best performances against the spread later this week. Today, here’s a look at Tennessee’s worst performances against the spread. Can’t appreciate the good without the context!

Tennessee’s 10 Worst Performances Against the Spread, 1985-Present

10. 1993 vs Penn State (Citrus Bowl): favored by 10, lost 31-13

We’ll see more from Heath Shuler’s squad tomorrow, which was so dominant it confused Vegas more than once, then did so again in the finale. This team, still Tennessee’s all-time best in SP+, lost at Florida by seven and tied Alabama in Birmingham. They destroyed everyone else. And then in the bowl game, they took a 10-0 lead…before Penn State closed on a 31-3 run. Ki-Jana Carter ran for 108 of their 209 yards, and the Nittany Lions had their second bowl victory over Tennessee in three years.

9. 1999 Memphis: favored by 30, won 17-16

Beware the orange pants! With everyone expecting bloodshed following the events of the next game on our list, the defending national champion Vols were perhaps still thinking about the loss at Florida the previous week. Tennessee needed a last minute drive to get the win on a very nervous homecoming Saturday. This was my freshman year at UT, and I’m not sure I’ve ever spent more of a game thinking about how bad it would be to lose. But we didn’t!

8. 1996 at Memphis: favored by 26, lost 21-17

Kevin Cobb was down.

6a. 1988 Washington State: favored by 3, lost 52-24

An 0-4 start became 0-5, with Tennessee surrendering more than 600 yards of offense. A Host of Volunteers has a great podcast about the 1988 season, which started 0-6 but ended 5-0, setting the table for Tennessee’s golden era to begin in 1989.

6b. 2017 Georgia: 10-point underdogs, lost 41-0

Tennessee’s run on the national scene from 2015-16 came to a firm halt on this day, dominated by Kirby Smart’s year two Bulldogs in Knoxville.

4a. 1995 Vanderbilt: favored by 32, won 12-7

This line will make more sense when you see what happened in this match-up the previous year. In the 1995 regular season finale, the Vols were ranked fifth, but almost stumbled the week before in Lexington. Against Woody Widenhofer’s year one Commodores, the Vols struggled offensively, but got the job done in a 12-7 victory. (The next two years against Vanderbilt, with some guy named Manning at quarterback: 14-7, 17-10). The Vols struggled into the Citrus Bowl…then beat maybe the most talented team they’ve ever faced from Ohio State.

4b. 2007 at Florida: 7-point underdogs, lost 59-20

An odd game, but not for this rivalry. Florida led 28-13 and was driving for the putaway score in the third quarter, when true freshman Eric Berry picked sophomore Tim Tebow and raced back 96 yards for a score. The Vols got a stop, and got the ball back down 28-20 with five minutes to play in the third quarter. And then, disaster: an Arian Foster fumble was returned for a touchdown, followed by a 99-yard Florida drive, followed by, followed by, followed by. The Gators scored 31 unanswered in the final 20 minutes, giving the Vols their worst margin-of-victory loss of the Fulmer era. Tebow won the Heisman, but the Vols would rebound to win the SEC East.

3. 2019 Georgia State: favored by 24.5, lost 31-23

This game had a chance to play in some real positive history at UT, as the 2019 Vols eventually rebounded from this disaster to finish the year on a six game win streak. The fallout for the Jeremy Pruitt era in 2020 severed that potential chain, leaving this one as one of two notable examples for getting stunned at home by a mid-major, along with…

2. 2008 Wyoming: favored by 27, lost 13-7

The margin of upset is wider here by half a point. But given what was happening at the time, I do think the Georgia State loss hurt more; at this stage in 2008, Fulmer was out, and the team played like it.

1. 2020 Kentucky: favored by 6.5, lost 34-7

Going back through at least 1985, this is Tennessee’s worst performance relative to the spread. The pick sixes in the first half set the tone, and Kentucky’s offense was able to finish things off in the second. The Vols have been blown out by more, for sure, but have never performed so poorly relative to what we thought would happen at kick-off, at least via Vegas standards.

Which is why it’s so amazing to know what they did against Missouri in the opposite direction just one year later. More on that later this week.

Is there a version of realignment that’s best for Tennessee?

It was kind of USC and UCLA, all things considered, to let their news loose on June 30. Nine weeks til kickoff, three weeks til SEC Media Days, baseball season moving into the rear view. It’s great content, thanks!

So now, is there a great version of where all this might be headed for Tennessee?

To me, two questions guide the thought process for the SEC moving forward:

Who makes it worth it to continue to expand?
How big is too big?

Football takes the lead on all of this, so a lot of what we’ll look at here in terms of size and scope is based on football scheduling. But I think you have to start with, “Would the league be good at 16 no matter what else happens?”

Who makes it worth it to continue to expand?

Back in the early pandemic days when we were uncertain when football would be played again, we had some fun building a 32-team football superconference. The framework we used is the same one making the decisions now, as usual: which programs are most valuable?

From that 2018 list from the Wall Street Journal, we found 13 programs valued at more than $500 million. With Texas and Oklahoma coming to the SEC, each of those 13 programs was already slated for the Big Ten or the SEC…except for Notre Dame. The Irish remain the white whale in this exercise (which makes them even less likely to be on any fantasy SEC radars).

From there, another 19 programs were valued at $250+ million. Those 32 teams represent:

11 of 14 current SEC programs (soon 13 of 16 with Texas/OU)
8 of 14 current Big Ten programs (soon 10 of 16 with USC/UCLA)
4 of 10 current Big 12 programs, with wide disparity between Texas/OU and Kansas State/Oklahoma State
5 of 12 current Pac 12 programs
3 of 14 current ACC programs
Notre Dame

If the SEC and Big Ten remain committed to their existing structures, the biggest winners yesterday were Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Missouri, Purdue, etc. Those programs get a seat at the big table they wouldn’t be able to pull up to on their own.

Based on those 2018 Wall Street Journal rankings, after Notre Dame the next two most valuable programs outside the current 32 team SEC & Big Ten are Oregon and Washington. Again, unlikely to be considered for the SEC. As Stewart Mandel points out in his overarching piece in The Athletic, Oregon holds a lot of power here. If they want to stay, the Pac-12 has a future. If they want to go and the Big Ten is willing to say yes, we’re deep down the path to the Big 2.

From an SEC perspective, in value the two most obvious targets are Clemson and Florida State. Those are three of your last nine national championships, and Clemson just played for another in 2019. Those two would get you to 18. If you wanted to expand from there? Virginia Tech is the next most valuable football program in the ACC, the last in the $250+ million club. Miami is further down the list (behind Georgia Tech among ACC schools, but that seems unlikely from a football perspective), but certainly adds name recognition, history, and expands the footprint.

One other thought among many: the SEC’s last two rounds of expansion always went outside existing territories and rivalries: Arkansas and South Carolina in 1992, Missouri and Texas A&M in 2012. Would South Carolina and Florida protest the most obvious additions of Clemson and Florida State, even in this landscape?

If so, I wonder about Duke and North Carolina from an all-sports perspective, which would immediately change the calculus in basketball. If Duke is a no go for various reasons, North Carolina and Virginia Tech would still fit the previous model.

Here’s the real question: how many of these teams are worth it?

And if the league decides they’re good at 16, would they still be good if the Big Ten went shopping? Does a 16-team SEC still carry enough weight to lead the conversation if the Big Ten adds Clemson, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Washington?

Some of this will also get down to the future of the College Football Playoff. Does the SEC view the Big Ten as an equal, or at least equalish? As early as 2026, could we see the champion of the SEC play the champion of the Big Ten, and nevermind what anyone else thinks?

There are plenty of dominoes to fall from there, including future non-conference scheduling, etc. But there is certainly a scenario where the SEC looks at all of this, even potential future expansion from the Big Ten, and says, “Nah, we’re good.”

If the league does say yes to expansion, then…

How big is too big?

Let’s start with what feels like the football move that would earn the most head nods: add Clemson and Florida State to go to 18, then stop there. At that point, the league doesn’t need Miami, or the North Carolina and Virginia markets to make that case that it clearly has the only championship-caliber argument in the south.

For scheduling purposes, we’ll attempt to stick to the one thing everyone seems to agree on: teams in the same conference need to play each other more often! Eighteen teams lends itself to two models:

One annual rivalry, then rotate the other eight opponents every year.
Five annual rivalries, then rotate four other opponents every three years.

One annual rivalry among 18 teams is a mess, particularly for a team like Tennessee. A quick pass at what made the most sense to me left the Vols and their opponent with the third-best option every year:

Alabama vs Auburn
Florida vs Florida State
Clemson vs South Carolina
Georgia vs Tennessee
Texas A&M vs LSU
Texas vs Oklahoma
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State
Arkansas vs Missouri
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt

Maybe it’s moderately fair, and in this system you’re seeing everyone every other year anyway. But in this format, games like Alabama/Tennessee, Florida/Georgia, Auburn/Georgia, etc. are getting played on home fields only once every four years. Seems unlikely, even in the midst of so many traditions falling by the wayside.

Five annual rivalries with four rotating opponents? Let’s get nuts.

18-Team SEC, Five Annual Rivalries (Plus 4 rotating opponents)

Alabama	Auburn	LSU	Tennessee	Texas A&M	Clemson
Arkansas	LSU	Missouri	Texas A&M	Mississippi St	Texas
Auburn	Alabama	Georgia	LSU	Mississippi St	Florida State
Clemson	South Carolina	Florida State	Georgia	Alabama	Vanderbilt
Florida	Georgia	Florida State	Tennessee	South Carolina	Kentucky
Florida State	Florida	Clemson	Auburn	Vanderbilt	South Carolina
Georgia	Florida	Auburn	South Carolina	Clemson	Tennessee
Kentucky	Tennessee	Vanderbilt	Florida	Mississippi St	Missouri
LSU	Arkansas	Alabama	Texas A&M	Ole Miss	Auburn
Mississippi St	Ole Miss	Arkansas	Auburn	Kentucky	Oklahoma
Missouri	Arkansas	South Carolina	Oklahoma	Texas	Kentucky
Ole Miss	Mississippi St	LSU	Vanderbilt	Oklahoma	Texas
Oklahoma	Texas	Texas A&M	Missouri	Ole Miss	Mississippi St
South Carolina	Clemson	Missouri	Georgia	Florida	Florida State
Tennessee	Kentucky	Alabama	Vanderbilt	Florida	Georgia
Texas	Oklahoma	Texas A&M	Arkansas	Missouri	Ole Miss
Texas A&M	Texas	Arkansas	LSU	Oklahoma	Alabama
Vanderbilt	Tennessee	Kentucky	Ole Miss	Florida State	Clemson

It’s imperfect, for sure, and carries some compromise for many, especially new additions like Oklahoma with few natural fits for so many protected rivalries. But for a team like Tennessee (and others), this system preserves every one of our biggest rivalries, then you’d see everyone else every three years, and in Neyland every six years.

So in addition to playing Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt every year, you’d get something like this:

YEAR A: Clemson, at Texas A&M, at Texas, Missouri

YEAR B: at LSU, Florida State, Ole Miss, at Mississippi State

YEAR C: Oklahoma, at Auburn, at South Carolina, Arkansas

(then switch the home-and-away for the next three years)

Or go to 20, and you’ve got:

20-Team SEC, Four Annual Rivalries (Plus 5 Rotating Opponents)

Alabama	Auburn	Tennessee	LSU	Ole Miss
Arkansas	LSU	Missouri	Texas	Texas A&M
Auburn	Alabama	Georgia	Mississippi St	LSU
Clemson	South Carolina	Florida State	Virginia Tech	Miami
Florida	Florida State	Georgia	Tennessee	South Carolina
Florida State	Florida	Miami	Clemson	Virginia Tech
Georgia	Florida	Auburn	South Carolina	Vanderbilt
Kentucky	Tennessee	Vanderbilt	Mississippi St	Virginia Tech
LSU	Arkansas	Alabama	Texas A&M	Auburn
Miami	Florida State	Virginia Tech	Clemson	South Carolina
Mississippi St	Ole Miss	Auburn	Kentucky	Missouri
Missouri	Arkansas	Oklahoma	Texas	Mississippi St
Oklahoma	Texas	Texas A&M	Missouri	Ole Miss
Ole Miss	Mississippi St	Vanderbilt	Alabama	Oklahoma
South Carolina	Clemson	Georgia	Florida	Miami
Tennessee	Kentucky	Vanderbilt	Alabama	Florida
Texas	Oklahoma	Texas A&M	Arkansas	Missouri
Texas A&M	Texas	Oklahoma	LSU	Arkansas
Vanderbilt	Tennessee	Kentucky	Ole Miss	Georgia
Virginia Tech	Miami	Florida State	Clemson	Kentucky

No matter which way you do it, there are compromises. These are just first draft ideas.

These exercises are fun, especially in July. Are either of them better for Tennessee than the SEC staying put at 16 teams?

The real answer to that question, I think: what will access to the College Football Playoff look like?

You need enough carrots out there for everyone in your league, as we wrote when Oklahoma and Texas headed our way last July. One way to make such a thing at least possible: an eight-team SEC playoff, which would instantly become a pass/fail benchmark for the entire league. Send the winner to face the champion of the BIG Whatever, and you’ve got a deal…it’s just one that cuts out everyone else in college football from the national championship chase.

If the sport isn’t headed in that direction, you’re still talking about x number of SEC teams chasing College Football Playoff bids…but for the rest? Is the Outback Bowl or whatever it’s called today still going to cut it when an increased playing field inherently leads to more losses to go around?

I don’t know the answer to these questions, though I do enjoy the conversation.

The best thing Tennessee can do: keep getting better.

The Good Old Days

https://twitter.com/Vol_Sports/status/1542161218277892096

Over the years of writing about Tennessee, we’ve sometimes joked about, “Man, imagine how much fun this will be when we win!”

And what you learn along the way is, these little moments are always available. Your team doesn’t have to win it all before they can do something meaningful, before we can enjoy them.

Whenever I hear people asking if this – right now – is as good as it’s ever been, I feel my age. In March and April of 1998, the men’s basketball team made the NCAA Tournament for the first time in nine years, and the Lady Vols went 39-0 to win their third straight national championship. You’re probably aware of what the football team did that fall. Those were some pretty good days.

But what I really think back to is 2007-08. In the summer of 2007, Lady Vol softball played for the national championship. That fall, we won the SEC East in football. In February, we beat #1 Memphis and went to the top of the polls ourselves in basketball. And in April, the Lady Vols won their second straight national championship. It felt like a time less reliant on purely what we did in football, and more about the overall health of the athletic department.

There’s an image from back then that I can’t find, but often reference: Pat Summitt, Phillip Fulmer, and Bruce Pearl sitting together at a Lady Vol softball game. Two Mount Rushmore faces of Tennessee Athletics, and a young (47 at the time!) coach you thought might join them one day. You just knew we were in good hands, and those hands would have us in the hunt.

That’s the real prize, to me: are we in the hunt?

Define success only by winning championships, and you will spend most of your fandom disappointed. But are your teams capable? When you sit down to watch, do you believe they can win? That’s the prize.

Things changed faster than any of us would’ve guessed from those 2007-08 seasons, now 15 years ago. There have still been moments along the way, always accessible. We’ve just had a really hard time lining them up:

Men’s basketball went to the Elite Eight in 2010, two months after Lane Kiffin left in the middle of the night.
Pat Summitt was diagnosed with early-onset Alzheimer’s in 2011, still helping the team win the SEC Tournament and reach the Elite Eight in 2012, her final season.
Cuonzo Martin’s 2014 team came within a charge call of the Elite Eight. He left for Cal soon after.
The 2015 and 2016 football Vols went 9-4, 3-1 against Florida and Georgia in those two years. Those seasons carried their share of what could’ve been, but still represent the high-water mark for football since 2007. Meanwhile, men’s basketball had their low-water mark for the same span in 2015 and 2016 during the transition from Donnie Tyndall to Rick Barnes.
Barnes got it going with an SEC Championship in 2018 and a month at #1 in 2019. Those years were preceded by a 4-8 football season in 2017, then a handful of 25+ point losses in 2018.

We got close enough to consider asking the question two ago, after football rallied from a 1-4 start to finish 8-5 in the fall of 2019. Some of those moments were both fun and meaningful. And that remained the struggle soon after, certainly impacted by the pandemic: how to string meaningful moments together, to make one year build on the next.

On the football side of things, credit Josh Heupel and his staff for making his year one far more competitive and exciting than most had planned, then building on it with real momentum in recruiting. And since football season ended, we’ve seen this:

Men’s basketball won the SEC Tournament for the first time since 1979
The Lady Vols made the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016
Baseball spent most of the season ranked #1, winning the SEC regular season and tournament crowns

It’s not that every program on campus is ready to be considered the best in the land. But in those sports, Tennessee is in the hunt. Softball hasn’t left the hunt.

And that question now turns to football, the biggest hunt of all. The Vols haven’t won 9+ games in the regular season since 2007.

Meaningful Saturdays are out there, and not too many from now. What will this team do this fall?

On a personal note: I started writing about Tennessee 16 years ago, about 10 days after I became a pastor. I’d lived in Knoxville all my life, then moved to Virginia to begin serving churches. And I just missed talking about the Vols.

I did that for a few years just on my own, as it fit into the rhythm of my life. And then Joel Hollingsworth asked me to join the team at Rocky Top Talk, which I did right after Kiffin was hired. And it had such a profound and positive impact on my life, all those years getting to talk about the Vols with so many people, even if the years were often confusing and it felt like no two sports could get it going at the same time.

We left RTT and restarted over here five years ago now, with kids on the way and another move back to Virginia, and more time to write about other things. And through all of that, up to and including a pandemic, sitting down at the keyboard to do this has remained such a positive thing in my life.

Two weeks ago, after 16 years away, my family and I moved back to Knoxville. And starting this Sunday, I’m elated to be joining the team at Powell Church. We’re so thrilled to be part of such a great community, and to be back home in the area. More than anything, we are incredibly grateful.

I still plan on sitting down at this keyboard trying to figure things out, with the Vols and otherwise, and finding its fit in the rhythm of our lives here. Frankly, I don’t know how to be a pastor without it. I just wanted to say thanks – for wherever you’ve read for however often – for making a difference in my life.

The good old days are always out there. And sometimes they seem closer than others.

But they look pretty good from here.