Tennessee Vols statistical ranking trends – after Alabama

Generally speaking, a team’s national stat rankings don’t improve after playing the No. 1 team in the nation, so you don’t pull these up hoping to see some evidence of improvement. But let’s take a peek anyway.

Offense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.

Fell into the Bottom 30: Passing Offense, but note that it joins seven other offensive categories already there.

Fell out of the Top 30: Passing Yards per Completion.

I like fall colors and all, but I’d rather not see it on my stat tables.

Defense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.

Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing.

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.

No movement in and out of general locations here this week, which is good news after playing a team with Alabama’s offensive firepower. Honestly, the Tennessee defense pretty much held its own.

Special Teams

Last week, I pointed out that there had been no red in this entire category since the BYU game. This week, there are three categories in the red: Kickoff Returns, Net Punting, and Punt Return Defense.

Turnovers and Penalties

Tennessee binged on penalties this week like they were coming off a 6-game fast, although they were force-fed some of that by servers in stripes.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: After Alabama

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine


My assessment

Regarding the Vols’ past opponents: It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but most of the Vols’ prior opponents are looking better than we previously thought. Georgia State and Chattanooga are good for their classification (although we still should not have lost to the Panthers). Florida’s looking good. Georgia has looked a little vulnerable the last couple of weeks, but they’re still obviously good. BYU just had another good win, although, like the Vols, they’re kind of all over the board. Mississippi State, who knows?

As for the Vols themselves, we’ve sniffed some hints over the past couple of weeks that they’re actually improving at a pretty good pace after a slow start, and this past weekend’s game against the Alabama Crimson Tide turned those hints into actual probative evidence that could win an argument. They’re getting better. There are still open questions, namely how much better are they, and how much will that improvement ebb and flow?

As for Tennessee’s future opponents, South Carolina got beat this week by Florida but looked good losing (and beat Georgia last week), and Georgia beat Kentucky but looked bad winning. Missouri lost to Vanderbilt, which probably means only that Missouri can lose to a bad team and Vanderbilt can beat a good team. UAB still scares me as a sleeper.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 4.7. That’s up from last week, but not as much as I thought it would be. It’s hard to get toss-ups to add up to as many wins as you’d like. I’m basically back to my preseason expectations, except that Georgia State and BYU went the wrong way.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87
  • After Week 2: 2.37
  • After Week 3: 3.65
  • After Week 4: 2.9
  • After Week 5: 3.25
  • After Week 6: 3.85
  • After Week 7: 4.4
  • After Week 8: 4.7

Details: I now have South Carolina and Missouri both at 45% and Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and UAB at 60%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-5 (1-2), 5th in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 5-2 (2-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

As I said last week, 2019 Georgia State isn’t the 2-10 Sun Belt team it was from 2018. They’re now 5-2.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 3-4 (0-0)

The Cougars notched another good win this weekend by upsetting No. 14 Boise State. You’ll recall that earlier in the season, they beat a then-ranked USC team. Sure, they’ve also lost to Toledo and South Florida, but they’ve shown they can beat decent-to-good teams, and doing so makes the Vols’ loss to them earlier this season look a little less bad.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 4-3 (3-0), 1st in the Southern Conference

Chattanooga is still an FCS team, but they’re first in their conference, so that’s something.

Florida Gators

Current record: 7-1 (4-1), 1st in the SEC East

I don’t know about you, but watching much of this weekend’s Florida-South Carolina game made me feel better about the loss to the Gators and worse about the prospects against the Gamecocks this week. (Although the Vols made up for that latter feeling with their later effort against the Tide.)

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 2nd in the SEC East

This weekend’s Georgia-Kentucky game was tied 0-0 at the half, and the Bulldogs really didn’t look very good all game. It’s hard to tell how much that was them and how much was Kentucky, so I’m kind of splitting the difference and feeling worse about the loss to Georgia and also slightly more wary about the upcoming game against Kentucky.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-4 (1-3), 6th in the SEC West

There’s no shame in losing 36-13 to the No. 2 team in the country, so I’m deferring judgment on the Bulldogs for now.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 7-0 (4-0), 1st in the SEC West

The Tennessee-Alabama game was closer than everyone expected it to be, but again, it’s difficult to tell how much of that is on Alabama and how much credit to give an improving Vols squad. I think it’s safe to say that Alabama isn’t the same team without Tua, though.

The Vols’ future opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 3-4 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East

See above. The Gamecocks are much better than their record suggests. North Carolina took them (and many others) by surprise, then they played a full-strength Alabama team tough and beat No. 3 Georgia. Plus, that Florida game was closer than the score makes it look. They’re going to be tough, even for an improving Vols team.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 2nd in C-USA West

I sounded the alarm on the UAB Blazers last week, and I’m still ringing the bell this week. We’re at serious risk of overlooking these guys.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 3-4 (1-4), 7th in the SEC East

See above. They played Georgia tough for most of the game. Plus, they’re going to get a much-needed rest the week before they take on the Vols.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-2 (2-1), 3rd in the SEC East

Wait, what? Vanderbilt lost to UNLV last week and beat a ranked and rolling Missouri team this week? The Tigers are an enigma. You could conclude that they’re good against teams without a decent defense, but they did also beat South Carolina, so you know. Whatever the case, the new data this week suggests a better opportunity for the Vols than we thought last week.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-5 (1-3), 5th in the SEC East

See above. Even a reeling Vandy can get you if you don’t take them seriously.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Mitchell K takes the lead in the GRT Guessing Game

Here’s the play-by-play for this week’s Guessing Game.

Week 8 – Alabama

Round 1

Q: At what point will the Vols score their first points? (30-50 points available)

A: First quarter (30 points) (Brian Maurer’s 2-yard run)

These people got this one right: jfarrar90, daetilus, Mitchell K, cscott95, PaulS, Harley

Mushrooms (10 points): Harley and Joel

Bananas (-10 points): daetilus and HixsonVol

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • No new blue shells or bolts

Top 10 after Round 1:

  1. jfarrar90
  2. daetilus
  3. Mitchell K
  4. Will Shelton
  5. Sam Hensley
  6. cscott95
  7. PaulS
  8. Harley
  9. Isaac Bishop
  10. LTVol99

Round 2

Q: How many points does Alabama have at the half? (30-50 points available)

A: 18-21 (30 points) (they had 21)

These folks got this one right: Mitchell K, cscott95, PaulS, Harley

Mushrooms (10 points): Sam Hensley gets both mushrooms. Selfish!

Bananas (-10 points): Current leader Mitchell K and new player Clark (welcome!)

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • No new blue shells or bolts (this is getting boring)

Top 10 after Round 2:

  1. cscott95
  2. Mitchell K
  3. jfarrar90
  4. Sam Hensley
  5. PaulS
  6. Harley
  7. daetilus
  8. Will Shelton
  9. Isaac Bishop
  10. LTVol99

Round 3

Q: What is the first score? (10-60 points available)

A: Alabama rushing (20 points) (Najee Harris touchdown run)

These folks get 20 points for getting this one correct: Mitchell K, daetilus, Will Shelton, Clark, and HixsonVol.

Mushrooms (10 points): Harley and HixsonVol

Bananas (-10 points): Current leader Mitchell K and new player Clark (welcome!) (yes, I copied and pasted this, and no, it’s not a mistake)

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • No new blue shells or bolts (nice weather we’re having)

Final Standings After Week 8:

Rank Player Points
1 Mitchell K 165
2 cscott95 158
3 daetilus 155
4 Will Shelton 154
5 jfarrar90 153
6 Sam Hensley 150
7 Harley 148
8 PaulS 145
9 Isaac Bishop 94
10 LTVol99 83
11 Jayyyy 81
12 Brenna Russell 75
13 HixsonVol fka MariettaVol 74
14 Joel Hollingsworth 70
15 Hounddog3 35
16 Alyas Grey 33
17 Greenback42c 30
18 Gavin Driskill 25
19 HixsonVol 20
20 Power TBP 15
21 Clark 0
22 StiflerUncut -3

jeremy.waldroop wins Week 8 of the 2019 GRT Pick ‘Em, GeorgeMonkey takes season-lead

Congratulations to jeremy.waldroop, who finished first this week in the Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em contest with a record of 16-4 and 184 confidence points.

Here are the full results for this week:

Rank Player W-L Points Tiebreaker
1 Neil Neisner 15-5 177 24-28
2 Harley 15-5 170 17-20
3 UTSeven 15-5 166 21-35**
3 Orange On Orange 15-5 166 20-24
5 Bulldog 85 15-5 165 20-24
6 jfarrar90 14-6 164 28-24
7 ChuckieTVol 14-6 163 0-0
8 PAVolFan 14-6 162 17-20**
8 memphispete 14-6 162 16-20
8 Anaconda 14-6 162 30-28
8 wedflatrock 14-6 162 17-10
12 LuckyGuess 13-7 160 31-30**
12 C_hawkfan 15-5 160 27-22
12 TennRebel 15-5 160 24-17
15 birdjam 14-6 159 24-20
16 Hixson Vol1 14-6 158 20-23
17 waitwhereami 12-8 156 17-24**
17 Rossboro 13-7 156 0-31
17 Jahiegel 13-7 156 26-21
20 GeorgeMonkey 12-8 155 27-20
21 boro wvvol 12-8 154 21-24**
21 Hjohn 12-8 154 24-21
23 joeb_1 13-7 153 34-24**
23 corn from a jar 12-8 153 23-6
25 Jayyyy 13-7 152 15-19**
25 mmmjtx 12-8 152 0-24
27 Crusher 14-6 151 21-24**
27 trdlgmsr 13-7 151 24-17
29 mariettavol 15-5 150 18-21
30 Phonies 13-7 149 30-24**
30 Sam 14-6 149 17-13
32 alanmar 13-7 148 27-17**
32 cnyvol 14-6 148 0-0
34 claireb7tx 14-6 146 21-14
35 Displaced_Vol_Fan 12-8 144 23-24**
35 ga26engr 14-6 144 34-13
37 Raven17 12-8 143 14-17**
37 DinnerJacket 14-6 143 32-18
39 doritoscowboy 12-8 141 0-0
40 rollervol 13-7 140 26-27
41 ltvol99 13-7 139 10-13**
41 Joel @ GRT 14-6 139 20-17
43 Knottfair 13-7 136 31-24
44 hounddog3 14-6 134 21-24**
44 rsbrooks25 14-6 134 13-17
46 vols95 15-5 133 21-24
47 TennVol95 in 3D! 11-9 132 14-24**
47 bluelite 14-6 132 17-20
47 daetilus 11-9 132 13-17
50 rockytopinKy 12-8 127 0-0
51 ctull 12-8 119 28-21
52 Timbuktu126 12-8 117 24-27**
52 tbone 12-8 117 21-24
54 ddayvolsfan 12-8 111 21-24**
54 HUTCH 12-8 111 35-13
56 keepontruckin 2-18 39 -
57 Will Shelton 0-20 38 0-0**
57 Aaron Birkholz 0-20 38 -
57 mmb61 0-20 38 -
57 UTVols18 0-20 38 -
57 Salty Seth 0-20 38 -
57 Teri28 0-20 38 -
57 tpi 0-20 38 -
57 aaron217 0-20 38 -
57 If you ain’t first you’re 0-20 38 -
57 tallahasseevol 0-20 38 -
57 dgibbs 0-20 38 -
57 waltsspac 0-20 38 -
57 Willewillm 0-20 38 -
57 Orange Swarm 0-20 38 -
57 Dmorton 0-20 38 -
57 RockyPopPicks 0-20 38 -
57 VillaVol 0-20 38 -
57 Jrstep 0-20 38 -
57 ed75 0-20 38 -
57 jeremy.waldroop 0-20 38 -
57 OriginalVol1814 0-20 38 -
57 BristVol 0-20 38 -
57 Wilk21 0-20 38 -
57 orange_devil87 0-20 38 -
57 VFL49er 0-20 38 -
57 ddutcher 0-20 38 -
57 BZACHARY 0-20 38 -
57 Caban Greys 0-20 38 -
57 cactusvol 0-20 38 -
57 PensacolaVolFan 0-20 38 -
57 Techboy 0-20 38 -
57 JLPasour 0-20 38 -
57 patmd 0-20 38 -

With that, GeorgeMonkey takes the lead for the season with a record of 112-48 and 1302 confidence points.

Rank Player W-L % Points
1 GeorgeMonkey 112-48 70.00 1302
2 wedflatrock 111-49 69.38 1301
3 PAVolFan 113-47 70.63 1299
4 birdjam 109-51 68.13 1296
5 jeremy.waldroop 108-52 67.50 1293
6 corn from a jar 109-51 68.13 1287
7 keepontruckin 104-56 65.00 1279
8 Raven17 109-51 68.13 1271
9 LuckyGuess 107-53 66.88 1270
10 memphispete 110-50 68.75 1269
11 Knottfair 105-55 65.63 1267
12 joeb_1 106-54 66.25 1266
13 alanmar 108-52 67.50 1265
14 Hixson Vol1 111-49 69.38 1261
15 C_hawkfan 113-47 70.63 1260
16 hounddog3 105-55 65.63 1258
17 Joel @ GRT 107-53 66.88 1255
18 TennRebel 102-58 63.75 1251
19 Displaced_Vol_Fan 107-53 66.88 1250
19 cnyvol 109-51 68.13 1250
21 jfarrar90 101-59 63.13 1242
21 ChuckieTVol 110-50 68.75 1242
23 Phonies 106-54 66.25 1238
23 DinnerJacket 106-54 66.25 1238
25 mmmjtx 108-52 67.50 1236
26 ga26engr 109-51 68.13 1234
27 waitwhereami 109-51 68.13 1230
28 daetilus 100-60 62.50 1228
29 boro wvvol 101-59 63.13 1216
30 Orange On Orange 102-58 63.75 1214
31 trdlgmsr 101-59 63.13 1212
32 Anaconda 94-66 58.75 1211
33 UTSeven 94-66 58.75 1210
34 ddayvolsfan 108-52 67.50 1206
35 Bulldog 85 103-57 64.38 1203
36 Harley 104-56 65.00 1198
37 HUTCH 100-60 62.50 1193
38 Sam 107-53 66.88 1191
39 Rossboro 99-61 61.88 1189
40 Crusher 101-59 63.13 1180
41 dgibbs 87-73 54.38 1179
42 rsbrooks25 107-53 66.88 1177
43 mariettavol 90-70 56.25 1175
44 ltvol99 111-49 69.38 1173
44 Wilk21 101-59 63.13 1173
46 Neil Neisner 99-61 61.88 1169
46 doritoscowboy 102-58 63.75 1169
48 ctull 89-71 55.63 1162
49 claireb7tx 99-61 61.88 1161
49 Jayyyy 91-69 56.88 1161
51 tbone 96-64 60.00 1134
52 VillaVol 103-57 64.38 1132
52 Jahiegel 95-65 59.38 1132
52 bluelite 97-63 60.63 1132
55 TennVol95 in 3D! 91-69 56.88 1121
56 patmd 101-59 63.13 1115
57 Orange Swarm 85-75 53.13 1112
58 Timbuktu126 82-78 51.25 1105
58 rollervol 96-64 60.00 1105
60 PensacolaVolFan 101-59 63.13 1096
61 rockytopinKy 83-77 51.88 1038
62 vols95 59-101 36.88 1009
63 Hjohn 86-74 53.75 1002
64 Will Shelton 52-108 32.50 999
65 OriginalVol1814 56-104 35.00 997
66 aaron217 63-97 39.38 992
67 BZACHARY 74-86 46.25 989
68 tpi 54-106 33.75 934
69 RockyPopPicks 33-127 20.63 927
70 Willewillm 25-135 15.63 840
71 Jrstep 34-126 21.25 834
72 BristVol 26-134 16.25 815
73 Dmorton 27-133 16.88 812
74 Caban Greys 13-147 8.13 802
75 tallahasseevol 14-146 8.75 792
76 orange_devil87 15-145 9.38 790
76 JLPasour 14-146 8.75 790
76 If you ain�t first you�re 13-147 8.13 790
79 Aaron Birkholz 13-147 8.13 781
80 ed75 13-147 8.13 777
81 Salty Seth 12-148 7.50 767
82 Techboy 11-149 6.88 766
83 waltsspac 11-149 6.88 763
84 cactusvol 12-148 7.50 757
85 VFL49er 4-156 2.50 706
86 Teri28 5-155 3.13 659
87 mmb61 0-160 0.00 658
87 ddutcher 0-160 0.00 658
87 UTVols18 0-160 0.00 658

Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans: Alabama

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the Vols traveling to Tuscaloosa to take on the No. 1-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans. Where and when to find the Tennessee-Alabama game on TV, what other games to watch as well, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

  • Kickoff: 9:00 ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Official video streaming: Watch ESPN
  • Official audio streaming: Vol Network
  • Live stats (presumably updated by the time kickoff rolls around)

The best games for Vols fans to watch today

The Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans doesn’t just include watching the Vols take on the Bulldogs. Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
#9 Florida South Carolina 12:00 PM ESPN Live Former/future Vols opponents
AFTERNOON
#12 Oregon #25 Washington 3:30 PM ABC Channel hop 2 Top 25 matchup
#22 Missouri Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN DVR/Channel hop 1A Future Vols opponents
Kentucky #10 Georgia 6:00 PM ESPN DVR/Channel hop 1B Former/future Vols opponents
#17 Arizona State #13 Utah 6:00 PM PAC12 Channel hop 3 Top 25 matchup
EVENING
#16 Michigan #7 Penn State 7:30 PM ABC Live, until Vols Top 25 matchup
Tennessee #1 Alabama 9:00 PM ESPN Live Go Vols!

And here’s a searchable version of this week’s entire college football TV schedule:

Date Away Home Time TV
10/16/19 South Alabama Troy 8:00 PM ESPN2
10/17/19 Louisiana Arkansas State 7:30 PM ESPNU
10/17/19 UCLA Stanford 9:00 PM ESPN
10/18/19 Marshall Florida Atlantic 6:30 PM CBSSN
10/18/19 Pittsburgh Syracuse 7:00 PM ESPN
10/18/19 #4 Ohio State Northwestern 8:30 PM FS1
10/18/19 UNLV Fresno State 10:00 PM
10/19/19 #3 Clemson Louisville 12:00 PM ABC
10/19/19 West Virginia #5 Oklahoma 12:00 PM FOX
10/19/19 #6 Wisconsin Illinois 12:00 PM BTN
10/19/19 #9 Florida South Carolina 12:00 PM ESPN
10/19/19 #11 Auburn Arkansas 12:00 PM SECN
10/19/19 Purdue #23 Iowa 12:00 PM ESPN2
10/19/19 Houston UConn 12:00 PM ESPNU
10/19/19 Kent State Ohio 12:00 PM CBSSN
10/19/19 Georgia Tech Miami 12:00 PM ACCN
10/19/19 NC State Boston College 12:00 PM ACCNX
10/19/19 Iowa State Texas Tech 12:00 PM FS1
10/19/19 Toledo Ball State 2:00 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 Central Michigan Bowling Green 2:00 PM ESPN3
10/19/19 Northern Illinois Miami (OH) 2:30 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 TCU Kansas State 2:30 PM
10/19/19 Oregon State California 2:30 PM PAC12
10/19/19 New Mexico Wyoming 3:00 PM
10/19/19 Coastal Carolina Georgia Southern 3:00 PM ESPN3
10/19/19 #2 LSU Mississippi State 3:30 PM CBS
10/19/19 #12 Oregon #25 Washington 3:30 PM ABC
10/19/19 Temple #19 SMU 3:30 PM ESPN2
10/19/19 #20 Minnesota Rutgers 3:30 PM BTN
10/19/19 Tulsa #21 Cincinnati 3:30 PM ESPNU
10/19/19 UL Monroe #24 Appalachian State 3:30 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 South Florida Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN
10/19/19 Buffalo Akron 3:30 PM ESPN3
10/19/19 North Carolina Virginia Tech 3:30 PM ACCNX
10/19/19 Southern Mississippi Louisiana Tech 3:30 PM NFL
10/19/19 Indiana Maryland 3:30 PM BTN
10/19/19 Duke Virginia 3:30 PM ACCN
10/19/19 #18 Baylor Oklahoma State 4:00 PM FOX
10/19/19 #22 Missouri Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN
10/19/19 Middle Tennessee North Texas 4:00 PM
10/19/19 Old Dominion UAB 4:00 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 Charlotte Western Kentucky 4:00 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 Kentucky #10 Georgia 6:00 PM ESPN
10/19/19 #17 Arizona State #13 Utah 6:00 PM PAC12
10/19/19 Rice UTSA 6:00 PM ESPN3
10/19/19 Maine Liberty 6:00 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 Kansas #15 Texas 7:00 PM LHN
10/19/19 East Carolina UCF 7:00 PM CBSSN
10/19/19 San Diego State San Jose State 7:00 PM
10/19/19 Tulane Memphis 7:00 PM ESPN2
10/19/19 Western Michigan Eastern Michigan 7:00 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 Colorado Washington State 7:00 PM ESPNU
10/19/19 Army Georgia State 7:00 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 UTEP Florida International 7:00 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 #16 Michigan #7 Penn State 7:30 PM ABC
10/19/19 Texas A&M Ole Miss 7:30 PM SECN
10/19/19 Florida State Wake Forest 7:30 PM ACCN
10/19/19 Tennessee #1 Alabama 9:00 PM ESPN
10/19/19 Arizona USC 9:30 PM PAC12
10/19/19 #14 Boise State BYU 10:15 PM ESPN2
10/19/19 Nevada Utah State 10:15 PM ESPNU
10/19/19 Air Force Hawai'i 11:00 PM CBSSN

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

Here’s the GRT Podcast from earlier this week:

And here is Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Heather Harrington on WNML’s Sports 180.

Pre-game prep

To catch up on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

Go Vols!

The Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: 2019 Week 8

It’s Friday before Gameday, and that means it’s time for the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you’ve played before, you know the deal, and you can skip to the questions below. If not, catch up here.

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our three questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

Good luck!

Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast – Episode 159 – Beat Bama?

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Robo-Transcript below.

You can also listen along with the robo-transcript below and even change the speed if you like. Pardon the errors, as the bot understands neither southern accents nor football. Also, there’s no bumper music in this, so the first 14 seconds is just, like, space, man.

GRT Podcast 10.16.19 transcript powered by Sonix—the best audio to text transcription service

GRT Podcast 10.16.19 was automatically transcribed by Sonix with the latest audio-to-text algorithms. This transcript may contain errors. Sonix is the best way to convert your audio to text in 2019.

Joel:
This is the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast, episode 1 59 and we are Joel Hollingsworth and Will Shelton, the Vols are coming off a twenty to ten upset of the Mississippi State Bulldogs last Saturday, and a bunch of guys made the pro football focus all SCC team of the week. I think it was a Trey Smith and Nigel Warrior or first team and Darrell Taylor was second team in Smith. I think actually got something like Coach Offensive Lineman of the Week or something like that. Basically, it was a good, good day for the guys. This week, though, the balls are heading straight for the teeth of a monster in Tuscaloosa, where they travel to Alabama to take on the Crimson Tide, who is again the number one team in the nation. But before we get to Alabama, Will, you wrote just after the Mississippi state game that it wasn't so much that that the Vols won the game, although they were a six and a half point underdog, but it was really more how they won. So can you talk a little bit about that for the folks that are listening, but missed that earlier in the week?

Will:
Well, at least being in the stadium Saturday, it felt like a game. Tennessee was in control of pretty early. You know, it felt like a game. It was at least going to be competitive and compelling. You wondered if are you gonna get punished for throwing two interceptions in the endzone? Turns out not really. And then even when Brian Maurer goes down, there's obvious.

Joel:
Upside down.

Will:
Oh, yeah. Yeah. My wife, when that happened immediately goes. Someone find his mother. It's like it's it. Yeah. I mean it was it was a I'm amazed that he bounced right back up from it. I know that had to be a lot of adrenaline because I'm sure that things felt like a car crash.

Joel:
Oh, no.

Will:
Some.

Joel:
Yeah. Because, I mean, it wasn't just that he landed on his head, it's he landed sort of not sort of the wrong direction. So he is neck head to bend before his momentum would actually finish him over the top. You know, that just didn't look at it. I don't like that.

Will:
Yeah. I don't know if it would have outside of the concussion. I don't know if it would've been whiplash or whatever, but it didn't tickle to her. So but you know, even when all of that took place and we have the angst about are we going to throw Garran Tanno because of what he's done this year, it creates obvious anxiety when Tennessee has to get in passing situations. And yet you just because of the defense, I never really felt like it was a game that Tennessee didn't have control

Joel:
No,

Will:
Of.

Joel:
No,

Will:
And you could lose that

Joel:
Wait,

Will:
Way.

Joel:
Wait.

Will:
We saw that with BYU,

Joel:
Are you

Will:
Where

Joel:
Aware

Will:
That

Joel:
That

Will:
Was

Joel:
Was

Will:
Evident

Joel:
Evident

Will:
Early

Joel:
Early

Will:
On,

Joel:
On?

Will:
That Tennessee could control that game. But I just think so.

Joel:
Oh,

Will:
It's hard to say.

Joel:
Wow.

Will:
Wow, big upset. But six and a half is a it's a pretty solid upset.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Statistically speaking and all that, it didn't look like Mississippi State was a touchdown. Better than Tennessee at any point in that game. And we'll see. I'll be curious to see what Mississippi state has right now, because if I'm a bulldog fan. I'm grasping right now because you lose to Kansas State at home that over game was all kinds of bad and Auburn lost to Florida, who lost to LSU? So you can't tell yourself you just got obliterated by one of the two or three best teams in the country. Maybe one of the 10 best teams, but not one of the two or three best, which was on the table at the time. They did that at Mississippi State. And then to turn into this performance off a bye against Tennessee, who at the time was the only team in the country not to have an f.b.i.'s win. Not great. And the schedule coming up for them, not great. So I'll be curious to see how we feel about this Mississippi state win at the end of the season. But at the moment, yeah, you still don't you don't throw away a six and a half point underdog victory. But again, and we're playing the long game here now. That's been the case since it's been the case all year. But really since Georgia State, it's been the case. And long term, the most important things for Tennessee. Figure out your quarterback. Maybe we need way more data on Brian Maurer. And you got to get better on both lines. And I thought for the defense to do what they did and shutting down the leading rusher in the SCC and also to really bother him in the passing game with all those sacks and for the offense, when everybody in the world knew what was coming on the most vulnerable drive the first time all day, the field position wasn't in Tennessee's favor.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
I mean, they just dominated for four carries in a row. Everybody's talked about how great that was to see. So, again, we'll see how we feel about the win itself later on. It depends on if Tennessee can beat South Carolina, if they can keep a 6 and 6 season realistically on the table. But long term. Are these offensive linemen going to keep getting better? Are these defensive linemen? Because there's they've got some some well hyped kids coming in next year. But you're still talking about freshmen there. You need to develop what you have. And it was a good day for all those guys. So, yeah, I just thought the way it happened. You're already seeing a spark at quarterback with Mauer. Now you've got sustained great play on the offensive line, especially like Trey Smith, like you said, and guys making plays on the defensive line against what was the leading Russia in the SCC. So a really, really good day for the long term for Tennessee. I thought on top of the obvious, just relief and a little release in the short term, the way the season has gone.

Joel:
Yeah, that the defensive line. It was a whole bunch of guys, too, it wasn't just one guy having a great game. It was like I was watching it like, hey, SEC from I don't know you. Who are you?

Will:
It's

Joel:
You know,

Will:
Sprits.

Joel:
It's

Will:
Yeah,

Joel:
It's like

Will:
I had

Joel:
There's

Will:
To.

Joel:
Another guy. I don't know.

Will:
I had to pull out the program and look for I can't even remember who it is now. Maybe Darel Middleton is

Joel:
Yeah,

Will:
Somebody that was making plays or I was

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Like, who was that? So.

Joel:
Yeah. Him and Benetton.

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Ja'quain Blakely was in there to

Joel:
Wow.

Will:
Make it. He didn't get a sack, but he made

Joel:
Mm

Will:
Some

Joel:
Hmm.

Will:
Nice things happen. I think it was my wife enjoyed that. He was. He had the belly hanging out.

Joel:
Now, you

Will:
That's.

Joel:
See, she likes big bellies.

Will:
Let's listen. I can testify to that. So it's David, haven't had a nice piece today or maybe yesterday about the game saying that when you look at those seven sacks, it wasn't necessarily great defensive line play. A lot of it was good coverage, which. Fine. Great. Awesome.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
You know, like whatever, those guys are finishing the job that a lot of those guys on the back end are doing. And it was nice to see that you mentioned the pro football focus grades, watching the game. It really

Joel:
Really?

Will:
Felt like Nigel Warrior was having a great game.

Joel:
Yeah, yeah.

Will:
And sometimes you feel that way

Joel:
Way

Will:
And then you go

Joel:
Back.

Will:
Back and especially with a guy in a secondary. You remember the plays he made, but you don't always remember the plays he gave up unless there, you know, sort of monumental kinds of plays. But I really. Warriors face such high expectations because of his dad. As long as he's been here and has failed to live up to what we built him up in our minds, probably unfairly as so there is a little bit of me when he was playing so well that thought, well, he's probably not playing as well as I'm hoping he is, but he really did,

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
At least in this one game. So that was that was really encouraging to see.

Joel:
Yeah. And then at the end of the game, you know, after. I think it was right after Mississippi State scored their touchdown to make it a little close. I said, OK, well, they're gonna have to pass now, you know, because you could tell that they were just playing with the lead and they were just wanting to sort of run out the clock and, you know, play it safe. And, you know, like you said, four straight runs. They were all successful. It's like, well, what do I know? Hey, you know, I'll take that. That was fun.

Will:
Well, there's there's a whole separate conversation we said on the side, because we're not allowed to have this problem right now. But for everyone that wants to make the Will Muschamp comparison, which, by the way. Good. Good week to be will most champs. So it's not that it's not all bad, but

Joel:
Maybe

Will:
Everyone

Joel:
The only week

Will:
Cares.

Joel:
That it's actually going to be Will Muschamp it.

Will:
It's right. But when we're setting that, we're setting it to the side for now. But people will want to say, well, it's nice to win this way, because we lost the Georgia state and BYU and had beat anybody. And it was nice to beat Kentucky this way last year. But this isn't sustainable. You're going to have to be more aggressive. Most champion Florida. It's fun to win games 20 to 10 for a year. And then you start losing those games and everything's closer than it should be. And it's just no fun at all. So I appreciate that Pruitt at least said in the post-game, hey, we probably can't win every game this way because. That's correct. So there was at least a verbal acknowledgement that this kind of thing isn't going to get it done every Saturday and it will get old and frustrating as Tennessee gets better and we expect more from them. But man, it was it was exactly right. Their run pass ratio. All that stuff, it worked exactly the way they wanted it to.

Joel:
So speaking of, hey, we're not going to be able to win every game like that. Pruitt joked I think he was joking about unveiling the Arkansas high school game plan of of always onside, kicking and never punting on fourth down. And, you know, the idea being that you're never going to let the other team actually have the ball. Right.

Will:
Right.

Joel:
And, you know, that's kind of funny. But, you know, Josh Ward mentioned on his podcast, looked on Vols that he thought that maybe it really wasn't all that bad of an idea. And when you start thinking about it, it's like, well, what is the downside? You know, it's just field position if you're unsuccessful, right. A failed onside kick gives the ball to the other team at midfield or better instead of at the twenty five and always going forward on fourth down. You know, that gives the ball to the other team right there instead of forty five yards away. So it's just field position and. But, but, but it might also work some of the time too, in which case you're extending a possession or maybe even stealing one. And what really is the value of an extra twenty five yards on kickoffs or forty five yards and a punt when the Alabama offense is going to score ninety five percent of the time anyway. So let them score quick and then you can get the ball back and eat more clock. So I'm all in that. That's what you know, I'm rooting for that. I know is not gonna happen, but I don't know. What do you think you wanted? You want to join me and Josh on this on this train?

Will:
Well, it's really that is an old, you know, Madden video game kind of way of doing things. And I never I was never that guy playing those games, but I did. I thought about I guess there's still time to do this recording. And so on Wednesday I thought about Busted Out Madden and just trying it in a game. This just to get a feel for it. In my spare time to seek as I haven't you know, that's that's a sort of middle school Madden tactic. But

Joel:
Was that does

Will:
You.

Joel:
That game actually have to a quarterback and three NFL first rounders? A wide receiver?

Will:
I would have to take like the Bengals. Put them in the orange uniforms and go against the Patriots in the red uniforms and imagine the imagine imagine the fire. But, you know, the interesting thing about that to me would be obviously, since he did it and somehow won the game, that would be front page news. But you know what? If Tennessee does it and they only lose by like 20 when you're five touchdown underdog. It would be interesting to see how they chose to carry that forward. From that point on, Pruitt is more aggressive. Again, when you're following Butch Jones, it's hard to not seem more aggressive, but on fourth downs, more aggressive on onside kicks. Last year, we were the best, best looking, onside, kicking team all year. We just missed by inches several times. So, you know, they work on it. And to that stuff, I wonder what kind of message are we sending to the defense? But what kind of message is Alabama's offense going to send to the defense?

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
On the other side of things.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
So that to me would be the only interesting thing about it is if it weren't just enough to convince you maybe to think about doing it against South Carolina, that, you know, that's where it could get off the rails, is you do it and somehow you're let's say you lose by 17 to Alabama. You know, said something where you can entertain the miraculous at the start of the fourth quarter. Something like that. Well, then you try next week against South Carolina and it failed spectacularly and you lose a game that you would have won otherwise, just playing it straight up. So, yeah. I don't. I mean, I don't think he's. I think if he was going to do that, he would not have said it loud.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
You know, you just do it. But it would it would at least be interesting at 9 0 7 or whatever time they're gonna kick this game off. It would it might keep a few more eyeballs in front

Joel:
Yeah,

Will:
Of it.

Joel:
That's way past my bedtime. Thing is, I don't think that there's really any need to play keep away from oil must champ offense, though.

Will:
I hope not. Yeah,

Joel:
Yeah,

Will:
That would be

Joel:
I

Will:
That would be

Joel:
Know.

Will:
Best.

Joel:
All right. So I have this theory about what makes the Alabama passing game so good. I mean, this is one of the actually let me ask you this first. You've you've been watching these guys for a really long time. Is this the best Alabama offense that you've ever seen?

Will:
Maybe I'm going to write this for Friday morning about's. We did a version of it last year. What is success against this team? What are the things you can do? And last year it was at least at the time of the Tennessee game. If they don't score a touchdown on the opening drive success. You know, like if they score less than thirty five in the first half. Success. That sort of thing. So I think it is. I think it's in the conversation. Sometimes I feel this way about some of the Kentucky basketball teams that have come rolling through Knoxville where you're like, OK. That one. But then if they lose in the Elite Eight, you can't really say that. You know, it's like last year's Alabama offense. I would put them on the on the list. I would put two right now in terms of like most dangerous quarterbacks that I have ever seen play against Tennessee. I would put two on a top five on that list right now. Like without hesitation. I mean, I'm talking about like the Danny Werfel list. I

Joel:
Mm

Will:
Think

Joel:
Hmm.

Will:
Two is two. It scares me more than Tebow ever did. Playing against Tennessee. So I think that quarterback portion of it is going to be there, whether Alabama wins the national championship or not. So, yeah, I think it's got the potential. Last year did, too. They just didn't finish it there at the end. But, you know, that's that kind of helps a little bit in a backhanded sort of way to say, well, we're going to get wrecked here. We're at least getting wrecked by maybe the best offense that Tennessee has ever faced. We talked about that when Tennessee played Marcus Mariota and Oregon Butch Jones first year of like, hey, this team might win the whole thing. And had opportunities, too. So, you know, we'll need to wait until the year is over to get that full answer. But I would say. Yeah, definitely in the conversation.

Joel:
So I'm glad you mentioned Mariota because I think part of the problem is. I think when we played Oregon, there's just no way to simulate that speed, you know. And so everybody's faster and you're taking bad angles all game because you're just underestimating where they are going to be the entire time. And that's that that's what I was getting about getting that when whenever it's talking about the Alabama passing game, because I think that. The reason that they are so good is that I'm going to call it frictionless because in a passing game you generally have some friction between, you know, catching the ball and then running after the catch. So the guy either has to, you know, stop and catch or he has to adjust on the fly or maybe has to slow down or speed up just a little bit. But tooa and his receivers, they have zero friction at that point. Those guys are always hit right at full speed. And I think that the rest of the defense just doesn't. They're just not used to seeing that happen without any friction whatsoever. I know that's the goal for everybody, but it just seems like they've perfected it. So that's what I'm going out with with these receivers. They just it everything is so smooth and I hate them for it. So. Well.

Will:
Well, I think Tennessee last year we saw a version of this in the second half of the West Virginia game right away where you had a quarterback and a wide receiver combo where that guy, like even above average coverage didn't matter. That guy could put it where it needed to be. The receivers were going to make the plays. And I'm sure that's incredibly frustrating for a defensive back to say. I mean, I was I was there. I was right with him step for step. And they made a long play anyway. There was a throw on Bama's opening drive last year where two like rolled out and threw it back across his body all the width of the field. And Jerrod Means is like a pindrop just boom right there. And even the Alabama fans in the stadium were just, you know, amazed that he made that throw. And it's just one of those like. I'm not sure what we're supposed to do yet. Like what else? What else can you do about something like that? So. Yeah, I guess I think too is already. He's already in that level of there's gonna be some stuff that happened Saturday where you just kinda have to shrug your shoulders and say, yep, yep. That's that's great. And let's just move on to the next play.

Joel:
Hey, did you see Doug Dickey's comments? I think it was a Dance Hall of Fame ceremony or something, or he was talking about his idea to expand the playoff to. I don't know whether it was eight or 16 teams. I think it was 16. Do you happen to see those comments? I'm sorry.

Will:
It did not see it.

Joel:
Oh, OK. So I'm going to paraphrase here, but it because I only glance that I was an M.D. doing something else. But, you know, you hear a lot of arguments like this and how do you make it Orac and all this stuff? And there was some stuff about that. But the thing I thought was so interesting was his reason for it. And he said it's creating a rich get richer of a bigger problem of the rich getting richer, because right now there's basically eight teams with the 14 playoff. There's eight teams that have that are legitimately chasing it each year. And so they're getting all of the best guys. Those eight teams. But if you expand it to like 16 team playoff, then you have 30 teams that can go into someone who's living room and say, hey, you know, we're going to be in the playoff this year without being laughed out. So I just thought that was really interesting yet. Any thoughts off the cuff on that?

Will:
I still think the very best model for this is eight teams with five automatic bids. If you win your conference, you're in. And in that model you make everybody's doing this anyway. Make them all play a conference championship game, which means if you win your division, you have a chance to win the national championship period every year. So for a conversation like that makes the South Carolina's and Missouri's of the world have a say, a some small percentage chance to win a national championship. You know, like Missouri right now and S.P. plus Missouri is the favorite to win the SCC east now. But I don't know if they'll be eligible for it or not. But that would be my point, is you. Every team has a chance to win their division. Not every I mean, not Vanderbilt and Kentucky, but many more teams have an opportunity to win their division. Then think about making a four team playoff with no automatic bids. And if you make if you win your division, you're gonna get a shot against whoever it is in in the lead title game. And if you win that, you're in. So I just think that is I think anything more than 8 ruins the regular season, which is the best.

Will:
It's what makes college football great is the weight on every outcome. And making it about automatic bids and division winners means you keep the head to head value, which is the other thing that makes it so great. So I think you can accomplish what I applaud Dickey for making that suggestion, because I think he's right and you can track that through. We've been doing this now for, say, five years, six years with a playoff. And it is a lot of Alabama and Clemson and Ohio State and becoming a lot of Oklahoma here. But I think, you know, you provide the most hope to the most number of teams while maintaining the sanctity of the regular season. If you do eight, eight teams, every conference champion gets in the highest rated group of five. Champion gets and. So you've got a Cinderella every year and then to At-Large teams that the committee could pick. So I just hope that one is always my favorite. To me, I just think it accomplishes all of those things.

Joel:
All right, back to Bama. Tennessee was, I think, opened as a twenty nine and a half point favorite and it's now up to thirty four and a half I believe, last time I looked. That's a lot of points, man. That does not look like a fun game to watch. So I think ESPN FBI gave Tennessee a one. This is off the top of my head, but I think it's a two point seven percent chance of of winning. So that's also fun. So what is it that we want to see on Saturday night? Do you know a team that is favored by that much is going to make the opponent look bad in almost all areas? So what is it that we're looking for to hopefully find some glimmer of hope in that game?

Will:
It's funny when you're an underdog, when you're a five touchdown underdog, you know. So if Tennessee loses by thirty one, they've covered the spread with a little room to spare. But I don't think any of us are going to say, hey, lost by thirty one. You know where that was? That was decent work there. I think you want to see you want to see Tennessee move the ball offensively. You want to see them land their shots. Because some teams like Ole Miss. It's not just Texas A&M, but some other teams that are closer to Tennessee's talent level right now have landed a few blows on them. There's lots of the most optimistic version of any of this is Bama's got some injuries on the defensive front. They're not what they used to be there. They don't have to be because they can score 100 points a game or whatever. But, yeah, I mean, you want to see if Monday if if Alabama wins this game. Sixty three to twenty. Well sixty three to thirty one or something like that is going to feel better about things that Auburn team in 2013. The DOBs played against that was fifty five to twenty three.

Will:
But you know Tennessee was within seven right before halftime and at a point and. Auburn got some special teams touchdowns too. But at a point there you just. OK. They're better than us and they're pulling away. But if you can land some punches early, if it's, you know, seventeen to seven and then twenty seven to 14 or whatever, just lands and punches. B attempts to be compelling television at the start of the third quarter, like at halftime of Tennessee's down twenty eight. That's probably not great. You know, so is can you keep it to twenty one or less in the first half. Gives some reason or some idea that maybe if you come down the field and score to start the third quarter, then maybe BAM has been playing football for a while here without a bye. Tennessee almost got him four years ago in Tuscaloosa in that scenario. So, you know, that's that's one thing also to look at there. But, you know, I don't know. I just I'm not sure. I don't know how this Tennessee team stops these guys, which goes back to the onside kick conversation.

Joel:
I'm wondering if that 9 o'clock kick, wasn't it? You know, hey, can you put us on after most of our fans bedtimes? I don't know. I

Will:
Well,

Joel:
Cause.

Will:
The fun online joke about that is Alabama has this fancy new synchronized stadium light thing, which I am sure we'll see a bunch on Saturday, but they haven't played a night game at home yet.

Joel:
Oh.

Will:
So this is their first opportunity to use it this season. So some some people are like, you know, hey, we spent millions of dollars or whatever on this system. Can you do us a favor and throw us a late. Central Time start against the team? We're going to be favored by five touchdowns against. Oh, that'll be fun and cool. So, yeah, I've been expecting lots of snark and jokes about the fancy new light system at Bryant Denning.

Joel:
So I'm actually glad that I asked you that question because something you said made me think of something I hadn't thought about before, which which is you kind of want to compare yourself to everybody else who's played them. Right. So if you look at their scores so far, you get Duke lost. Forty two to three. You don't want to be like them.

Will:
But they were compelling for a quarter and a half.

Joel:
Ok,

Will:
Something

Joel:
So you

Will:
Like that.

Joel:
See, I go a little bit longer than that, which, you know, generally we're only good for a quarter and a half. But maybe in the both the first half and the second half, maybe we're we're in at New Mexico State. Sixty two to ten. You don't want to let him get to 60. Ole Miss, not southern miss. Forty nine to seven. Now, if you can do better than that. That would be good. So we're really looking at South Carolina, Ole Miss and M and Ms. Top twenty five team or. Or was.

Will:
More talented than us by far.

Joel:
Yes.

Will:
A&m is,

Joel:
Yes.

Will:
But not the other.

Joel:
Right. So you got South Carolina forty seven, twenty three. That would be respectable.

Will:
Four. Yes, it is. I would take that

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Right now.

Joel:
Ole Miss. Fifty nine to thirty one. I like the thirty one part of that.

Will:
Twenty eight. Same thing. You cover the spread by a touchdown and you scored a lot of points and could tell yourself, hey, when we're not playing Bama, we're gonna do great.

Joel:
Are you doing that math in your head? Because, you know, it's after 9 for me and I just I didn't even realize that's it for

Will:
Football bars and church attendance are the only two men that I can do.

Joel:
This dude is so good at Severns, man.

Will:
The threat seven thousand fifty nine thirty one. They both kicked a field goal in their.

Joel:
All right. And then and I was forty seven. Twenty eight. What's that. That's a. Right.

Will:
I say, yeah, but again, I wouldn't I wouldn't compare us to. Same thing with A&M, that game, listening to the updates, driving back from the Mississippi State game on Saturday. You know, it was. Oh, all right. Now it's twenty seven, fourteen or whatever. Oh, they're within. Okay. Well there's still high. That's what you want is compelling as long as possible. And and you're not going to get the sort of Duke was compelling for a while at like 7 to 3 or something like that in the first week of the season. You're not gonna get that. So you want to me, it's going to have to be the trading blows compelling.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Which would be especially if Mauer plays.

Joel:
Yeah. And I would be OK if if it comes down to us holding our own for a while and then just get getting worn out at the end of each half. We're just. There's an explanation for that. Right. So yeah, I'll I'll take that too. I meant to look up a rap name for you, but I still have not done that. So I'm just gonna give you your freestyle anonymous thing. Give him a chance to say whatever you want to say as long as you make it rhyme and say it in rhythm.

Will:
Yeah, well, I can't. I can't promise you either of those things. You know, this is bargaining again. David even had a nice piece today where athletics doing this thing, where they're doing mid-season reviews on all these teams and his his each one they're doing. What's the biggest question for this team? And his was was Mississippi state a turning point or an outlier? And that's right. You know, there's a chance we look back.

Joel:
Yes.

Will:
It's not just the end of the season, but in about three weeks. And we say, oh, Mississippi State is in the toilet like there. It's just not happening for them.

Joel:
Well, they

Will:
And.

Joel:
Got all those I'm sorry to interrupt, but they got all those suspensions, too, which can't help the overall record.

Will:
No, nor can playing LSU and everybody else that they've still yet to play despite having three losses now. So, yeah, there's a chance that happens and we get back into the business of not only losing but losing to losing to Missouri by twenty eight hours or something like that. I mean, that's that's still possible. I think it's clear at this point that Vanderbilt is very bad and maybe looking for a coach by the time they get around to playing us. UAB is sneaky. You have like 5 and 1 or something like

Joel:
Yep.

Will:
That, but they're still not. They got some football. Let's play before they play us.

Joel:
The SBM loves you. By the way,

Will:
Yet

Joel:
Every

Will:
The

Joel:
Week.

Will:
Advance that still don't love them, but I mean, look at their record the last two years. They. They deserve some love.

Joel:
They're putting up points in their keeping opponents from putting up points. I know their schedules are out there, but that good. But.

Will:
Yeah. But, you know, we'll see about about them by the time we get there.

Joel:
Yeah,

Will:
And Kentucky, you know,

Joel:
I think.

Will:
I think this school of thought there is if you could beat Kentucky the way you beat them last year, and you've shown with Mississippi State that if your team has something below average at quarterback, you can kind of smother that. They did that with BYU with the exception of one play. So I know Tennessee is capable of shutting down an offense that does not have a quarterback that's worth a whole lot. So I don't worry about that one. But yeah, I mean, I think there's that's the argument. Was this an outlier? And in a couple of weeks, we're gonna be back to talking about making sure this team doesn't get to 3 and 9 or whatever. Or was it a genuine turning point? Because, you know, it's it's got him at five point one on the ole expected win total this week. So it's it's not impossible, but there's work to do here. So and we just we fell into this trap last year. And when they beat Kentucky last year, we're five and five. I thought, man, this this year, a successful year is in the bag. You know, even if they even if they split these next two games, this is gonna be a successful year. We're gonna go to a bowl game. Things are trending up. And then they just. I mean, you were there. We were all there. They were awful against Missouri and Vanderbilt. So you just never know what's going to happen. But yeah, I think that's I think that's the question here going forward.

Joel:
And that'll do it for this episode of the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast, as always. Thanks for listening. As always, do us a favor. Subscribe, give us a rating. Have a review. I need to start saying this at the beginning because, you know,

Will:
Got

Joel:
I don't know very

Will:
To

Joel:
Much.

Will:
Make it to the end. Yes.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Thank you for bringing it to the end if

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
You're still listening to this.

Joel:
Yeah. So bonus points, if you include in your review the secret phrase onside kick. There we go again with that one. So for Will Shelton, I'm Joel Hollingsworth and this has been the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast. And I applaud Skype for actually making it through with booting you off and making you start mid-sentence again.

Will:
Indeed. I think we we stayed true to our word of finishing by 9:15. So it's a valued hour, our effort there.

Joel:
It did. Very nice. All right, well, wish me luck with the statistics. I don't even know what it is we're trying to figure out tonight. Something to do with. I can't even tell you.

Will:
Well, yes, I did find a way to turn it into multiples of seven and football scores and you'll just find.

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Will the Vols cover against Alabama?

The Tide opened as a 29.5-point favorite over Tennessee, and as of Thursday morning, it’s moved to 34.5. Will the Vols cover against Alabama?

The SPM’s performance so far in 2019

The SPM went 27-22 (55.1%) last week on all games. Above the pre-chosen confidence level, it was 8-6 (57.14%) and within the pre-chosen confidence range it was 4-4 (50%). That’s two weeks in a row that it hasn’t done as well in the confidence range than it has just over the confidence level. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

As expected, the SPM is beginning to find its legs with more games and comps to choose from. It’s still playing catch-up a bit from earlier in the season, but after two solid weeks, it’s now 159-165 (49.07%) overall, 74-64 (53.62%) above the confidence level, and 37-24 (60.66%) within the confidence range.

Fortunately for Vols fans, the SPM got last week’s Tennessee game wrong despite being really confident that Mississippi State would not only win, but cover.

So what does the SPM have to say about the Tennessee-Alabama game? Let’s have a look.

Vols-Tide

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee points:

  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23
  • Alabama scoring defense for the season: 17

The Alabama scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Florida 14.1
  • Georgia 12.3

Tennessee scored 3 points against Florida and 14 points against Georgia, so against the two best comps, Tennessee scored only 64% of what those teams usually give up. That puts the estimated points for Tennessee against Alabama right at 10.9.

Alabama points:

  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 25.7
  • Alabama scoring offense for the season: 51

The Alabama scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

  • Georgia 38.5
  • Georgia State 35.5

Note first that those two comps aren’t really even close to what Alabama’s regularly putting on the scoreboard. For whatever it’s worth, Georgia State scored 38 points against Tennessee, and Georgia scored 43. So, the Vols allowed the two best-but-not-very-good comps 109% of what they usually score. That puts the estimated points for Alabama against Tennessee at 55.6.

Estimated score: Tennessee 10.9, Alabama 55.6

From the perspective of Alabama

Alabama points:

  • Alabama scoring offense for the season: 51
  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 25.7

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Alabama opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Mississippi 27.4
  • Duke 23.2
  • South Carolina 23.2

Alabama scored 59 points against Mississippi, 42 against Duke, and 47 against South Carolina, so against the three best comps, Alabama scored 200% (double!) of what those teams usually give up. That puts the estimated points for Alabama against Tennessee at 51.4.

Tennessee points:

  • Alabama scoring defense for the season: 17
  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Alabama opponent(s):

  • New Mexico State 19.6
  • Mississippi 27.1

Alabama allowed Mississippi 31 points and New Mexico State 10, which means that, together, those teams got only 88% of what they usually get when they played Alabama. That puts the estimated points for Tennessee against Alabama at 20.2.

Estimated score: Alabama 51.4, Tennessee 20.2

SPM Final Estimates

When you throw all of that in the stew and crank up the heat, here’s what’s for dinner:

SPM Final estimated score: Alabama 53.5, Tennessee 15.6

SPM Final estimated spread: Alabama -37.9

SPM Confidence level: 8.4

That 8.4 confidence level is just below the confidence range that the SPM favors the most this season, meaning this is not one of its favorite picks this week.

Eyeball adjustments

The SPM is not designed to account for things like player substitutions or teams navigating learning curves associated with youth or new coaching staffs, and Tennessee has all of that. For that reason, I’m expecting the SPM to adjust to improvement from the Vols but to be slow in doing so. It will come, but when we’re playing a good team like Alabama, the SPM’s not going to look at the most recent games but at the most comparable opponents, and for Alabama, that’s going to be Georgia and Florida. Tennessee seemed like a different team against Georgia than against Florida and is probably becoming a different team each week as it traverses the learning curve.

Still, I have a nagging suspicion that Mississippi State is just not very good and a nagging certainty that the Alabama offense is a machine lethal to defenses. So, although I sincerely believe that the Vols are improving, I’m giving a healthy dose of deference to the SPM against this week. I think the SPM is a little high on Alabama’s points but pretty close on Tennessee’s. With that, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Alabama 48, Tennessee 17, a spread of 31. I guess that means that I don’t think the Vols will cover the opening spread of -29.5, but that they will cover the current spread of -34.5.

Other predictions from other systems

As previously mentioned, the Vegas line opened with Alabama a 29.5-point favorite, and it is now 34.5. The over/under of 62 translates to something like Alabama 48, Tennessee 14. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 2.6% chance of winning.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Alabama 41-14, and gives the Vols a 6% chance of winning. That’s a spread of -27.4, so it’s taking Tennessee and the points.

SP+ cooled a bit more last week, going only 26-26 (50%) overall, but it is still an incredibly impressive 57% for the year. As I said earlier, our SPM has beaten SP+ the last two weeks but is still far behind at 49.07% overall. Above our confidence level, it’s 53.62% and within our confidence range, it’s 60.66%.

Bottom line

Both I and the SPM think the Vols fail to cover the opening 29.5-point spread this week.

What do y’all think?

College Football TV Schedule: Week 8

With the Vols not kicking off until after your kids’ bedtime on Saturday, you have an entire day of relaxing and scouting ahead of you. Future Vols opponents South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt are all in action in the early time slots this weekend, as are a handful of Top 25 matchups of national interest. Here’s when and where to find those games, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.

There’s a game Wednesday night, but it’s of no interest to Vols fans, so the week really kicks Thursday.

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
UCLA Stanford 9:00 PM ESPN Live Former coaching candidate

Remember when everyone was pining for Chip Kelly? Peek in Thursday night to see how he’s doing at UCLA.

Friday, October 18, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
#4 Ohio State Northwestern 8:30 PM FS1 Live It's football

Eh, are there any Vols fans at all interested in the Ohio State Buckeyes? What if it’s really the only option on a Friday night?

Gameday, October 19, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
#9 Florida South Carolina 12:00 PM ESPN Live Former/future Vols opponents
AFTERNOON
#12 Oregon #25 Washington 3:30 PM ABC Channel hop 2 Top 25 matchup
#22 Missouri Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN DVR/Channel hop 1A Future Vols opponents
Kentucky #10 Georgia 6:00 PM ESPN DVR/Channel hop 1B Former/future Vols opponents
#17 Arizona State #13 Utah 6:00 PM PAC12 Channel hop 3 Top 25 matchup
EVENING
#16 Michigan #7 Penn State 7:30 PM ABC Live, until Vols Top 25 matchup
Tennessee #1 Alabama 9:00 PM ESPN Live Go Vols!

At noon, Vols fans get a chance to see next week’s opponent — South Carolina — in action against former opponent Florida. We’re hoping for a nice scouting report and a blueprint wrapped up all pretty-like with a bow.

Get your remote limber for the afternoon slot, as three future Vols’ opponents are in action at the same time as two Top 25 matchups. We’re hoping to spot some exploitable vulnerabilities in Missouri and to stoke existing hope against Kentucky and Vanderbilt.

The evening time slot kicks off with a Top 25 Big 10 matchup between No. 16 Michigan and No. 7 Penn State, so watch that live until the Vols kick off against No. 1 Alabama at 9:00 on ESPN and then hope for a memory that will last a lifetime. Go Vols!

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
10/16/19 South Alabama Troy 8:00 PM ESPN2
10/17/19 Louisiana Arkansas State 7:30 PM ESPNU
10/17/19 UCLA Stanford 9:00 PM ESPN
10/18/19 Marshall Florida Atlantic 6:30 PM CBSSN
10/18/19 Pittsburgh Syracuse 7:00 PM ESPN
10/18/19 #4 Ohio State Northwestern 8:30 PM FS1
10/18/19 UNLV Fresno State 10:00 PM
10/19/19 #3 Clemson Louisville 12:00 PM ABC
10/19/19 West Virginia #5 Oklahoma 12:00 PM FOX
10/19/19 #6 Wisconsin Illinois 12:00 PM BTN
10/19/19 #9 Florida South Carolina 12:00 PM ESPN
10/19/19 #11 Auburn Arkansas 12:00 PM SECN
10/19/19 Purdue #23 Iowa 12:00 PM ESPN2
10/19/19 Houston UConn 12:00 PM ESPNU
10/19/19 Kent State Ohio 12:00 PM CBSSN
10/19/19 Georgia Tech Miami 12:00 PM ACCN
10/19/19 NC State Boston College 12:00 PM ACCNX
10/19/19 Iowa State Texas Tech 12:00 PM FS1
10/19/19 Toledo Ball State 2:00 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 Central Michigan Bowling Green 2:00 PM ESPN3
10/19/19 Northern Illinois Miami (OH) 2:30 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 TCU Kansas State 2:30 PM
10/19/19 Oregon State California 2:30 PM PAC12
10/19/19 New Mexico Wyoming 3:00 PM
10/19/19 Coastal Carolina Georgia Southern 3:00 PM ESPN3
10/19/19 #2 LSU Mississippi State 3:30 PM CBS
10/19/19 #12 Oregon #25 Washington 3:30 PM ABC
10/19/19 Temple #19 SMU 3:30 PM ESPN2
10/19/19 #20 Minnesota Rutgers 3:30 PM BTN
10/19/19 Tulsa #21 Cincinnati 3:30 PM ESPNU
10/19/19 UL Monroe #24 Appalachian State 3:30 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 South Florida Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN
10/19/19 Buffalo Akron 3:30 PM ESPN3
10/19/19 North Carolina Virginia Tech 3:30 PM ACCNX
10/19/19 Southern Mississippi Louisiana Tech 3:30 PM NFL
10/19/19 Indiana Maryland 3:30 PM BTN
10/19/19 Duke Virginia 3:30 PM ACCN
10/19/19 #18 Baylor Oklahoma State 4:00 PM FOX
10/19/19 #22 Missouri Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN
10/19/19 Middle Tennessee North Texas 4:00 PM
10/19/19 Old Dominion UAB 4:00 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 Charlotte Western Kentucky 4:00 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 Kentucky #10 Georgia 6:00 PM ESPN
10/19/19 #17 Arizona State #13 Utah 6:00 PM PAC12
10/19/19 Rice UTSA 6:00 PM ESPN3
10/19/19 Maine Liberty 6:00 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 Kansas #15 Texas 7:00 PM LHN
10/19/19 East Carolina UCF 7:00 PM CBSSN
10/19/19 San Diego State San Jose State 7:00 PM
10/19/19 Tulane Memphis 7:00 PM ESPN2
10/19/19 Western Michigan Eastern Michigan 7:00 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 Colorado Washington State 7:00 PM ESPNU
10/19/19 Army Georgia State 7:00 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 UTEP Florida International 7:00 PM ESPN+
10/19/19 #16 Michigan #7 Penn State 7:30 PM ABC
10/19/19 Texas A&M Ole Miss 7:30 PM SECN
10/19/19 Florida State Wake Forest 7:30 PM ACCN
10/19/19 Tennessee #1 Alabama 9:00 PM ESPN
10/19/19 Arizona USC 9:30 PM PAC12
10/19/19 #14 Boise State BYU 10:15 PM ESPN2
10/19/19 Nevada Utah State 10:15 PM ESPNU
10/19/19 Air Force Hawai'i 11:00 PM CBSSN

Tennessee-Alabama: Head-to-head statistical rankings

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the corollary rankings for the Alabama Crimson Tide. You can probably guess that it’s not good news, but we have dressed it up in pretty colors because it helps the medicine go down.

The short version, for those who like needles more than pharmacies, is that Tennessee has zero advantages on offense and what amounts to a tie in only one category on defense (with the rest decisively in the Tide’s favor). The Vols do actually have better rankings in special teams and penalties, though, so there’s that.

Details below.

Vols on offense

Well, this is no good at all. When the Vols have the ball, they are at a serious disadvantage in . . . everything. The biggest problem, of course, is that Tennessee’s Scoring Offense is in the Bottom 30, while Alabama’s Scoring Defense is in the Top 15. Woo. The Tide defense also has an appetite for interceptions that the Vols are all too willing to Door Dash directly to them. It’s going to be a long day for the Vols offense.

Vols on defense

Well, this is no good at all, either. Although Tennessee has its own healthy appetite for interceptions, Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a selfish, selfish man with the ball. Beyond that, Alabama’s much better on every down and in every category. Woo.

Special teams

We interrupt this downer to bring you good tidings: Tennessee has a better punter than Alabama. The Vols are also marginally better in most special teams categories. So, the gameplan is to brainstorm an innovative new strategy to play the entire game on special teams. I hope they got an early start on that.

Turnovers and penalties

Alabama commits more penalties than Tennessee does. Nah-na-na-na-na-na. Alabama’s better in the turnover game. Boo.