Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

Well. Right out of the gate, this looks like an uphill battle.

Summary and Score Prediction

All buzzers, beepers, and sirens are screaming and blinking red as a Tennessee team having problems keeping even mediocre opponents off the offensive boards are set to take on a Mississippi State Bulldogs team that ranks second in the nation at getting them.

The Vols could manage, though, as their shooting defense is still extremely effective and should always keep them in games. But they also desperately need to find their own shooting touch consistently.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Box out. Rebound. Keep the Bulldogs off the offensive glass. They’re going to get some — it’s what they do — but don’t let it turn into a feast.
2. Balance, again. Go ahead and divert some resources to boxing out, but keep your defensive edge at the same time.
3. Find your shooting touch. It comes via inside touches.

KenPom gives Tennessee a measly 29% chance of winning and puts the score at Mississippi State 67, Tennessee 61.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Washington and Memphis, and quite a bit better than Tennessee. Nice.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Basically the same as Tennessee. At least there’s that.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Oh, good. After a bad loss due to an inability to keep the other team off the offensive boards, we now get to play the second-best offensive rebounding team in the country. Woo.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like Cincinnati and Mississippi, and better than Tennessee. Sigh.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.8 (No. 199), and Mississippi State’s defensive eFG% is 47.3 (No. 95).

When Mississippi State has the ball

The Bulldogs’ eFG% is 51.2 (No. 93), and Tennessee’s shooting defense is 42.9 (No. 7).

Conclusions

The Vols really need to find their shooting touch and make it happen consistently. The Bulldogs shoot well, but Tennessee’s shooting defense is still really good at frustrating opponents.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

The Vols turnover % is 20.9 (No. 284), and the Bulldogs’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 18.6 (No. 201).

When Mississippi State has the ball

Mississippi State’s turnover % is 21.1 (No. 298) and will be going up against Tennessee’s defensive rating of 19.8 (No. 129).

Conclusions

Neither team is very good at causing turnovers, but both teams are perfectly willing to just give the ball to the other team. It’s like Christmas!

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 28.9 (No. 153), and Mississippi State’s defense in that category is 29.1 (No. 222).

When Mississippi State has the ball

The Bulldogs’ OR% is 40 (No. 2), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 29 (No. 218).

Conclusions

Gulp. This is a bona fide emergency. Tennessee’s bad at keeping opponents from getting offensive rebounds, and that just happens to be the Bulldogs’ specialty.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34 (No. 129), while Mississippi State’s defense against that is 29.5 (No. 127).

When Mississippi State has the ball

The Bulldogs’ FT Rate is 36.9 (No. 69), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 30.8 (No. 157).

Conclusions

Advantage Bulldogs.

Go Vols.

In our four-factors preview of the Tennessee-Texas A&M game yesterday, this was the to-do list we came up with:

Balance. The Vols’ shooting defense is so good and A&M’s shooting offense is so bad that the Vols could probably play safe enough to minimize A&M’s trips to the charity stripe and still pretty much shut them down from the field. Find the right balance.

Turnovers and rebounds seem to be fairly even, so win those battles.

Don’t forget that the magic phrase is “inside-out.”

The Aggies were, in fact, terrible shooting the ball, even when they were right at the rim. By the end of it all, Tennessee had held them to 30.4% from the field and 26.9% from three. The Vols weren’t much better from three, but they were quite a bit better from the field, hitting 46.7% of their shots.

One of the chief problems last night, though, was that the Vols never really found a good balance of defense and fouling. A&M shot 29 free throws to Tennessee’s 15, and the Aggies hit nearly 76% of them for 22 points. Tennessee had only 10 points at the free-throw line.

The Vols also gave up a huge number of offensive rebounds and second-chance shots. While the Vols had only 4 offensive boards, the Aggies had an astounding 23.

Turnovers and defensive rebounds were basically a wash, but those offensive rebounds and extra trips to the free-throw line ended up costing the Vols. Perhaps they could have eased up defensively, boxed out a little more, and let the Aggies shoot themselves into a loss.

But that’s not how it played out, as the Vols lost to the Aggies 63-58 at home. It’s a disappointing outcome on the heels of the positivity emanating from keeping it close on the home court of the No. 3 team in the country just three days prior.

We should expect some ups and downs from a team with so many young players playing so many key roles, so I wouldn’t count these guys out just yet. But they did just dig the hole a little deeper Tuesday night.

Previously on GRT Four Factors: These were the goals we identified for the Vols heading into the Kansas game:

1. If you shoot poorly, make them shoot worse. Possess this ability, you do.
2. Turn turnovers into easy points. If somebody gives you cake, you eat it, right? Eat the cake.
3. If able, steal their cloaking devices. If you manage this, the Big 12 will award you an honorary doctorate from every school in the conference. Except probably Kansas.

How’d they do?

1. The Vols shot 45.5% from the field and 40% from the arc, and they held Kansas to 46.3% from the field and 23.5% from three. That’s pretty good, and it’s what kept them close.
2. There wasn’t a lot of opportunity for fast break points created by turnovers because Kansas only turned the ball over 6 times. This didn’t work.
3. Nope. There were 23 fouls called on Tennessee and only 16 called on Kansas. Free throw attempts were 33 for the Jayhawks to 16 for the good guys. This didn’t work, either.

Still, Tennessee kept it interesting right until the end and only lost 74-68. It was a good game plan, and it was executed pretty well, but in the end Azubuike was just too good.

Let’s have a look at what might happen tonight against the Aggies.

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

Hmm. The Aggies don’t shoot very well.

Summary and Score Prediction

This game pits one huge advantage against another: Tennessee’s shooting defense should smother a bad-shooting A&M team into a terrible shooting percentage, but the Aggies should have a huge advantage at keeping the Vols off the free throw line while getting there a lot themselves.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Balance. The Vols’ shooting defense is so good and A&M’s shooting offense is so bad that the Vols could probably play safe enough to minimize A&M’s trips to the charity stripe and still pretty much shut them down from the field. Find the right balance.
2. Turnovers and rebounds seem to be fairly even, so win those battles.
3. Don’t forget that the magic phrase is “inside-out.”

KenPom gives Tennessee an 87% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 65, Texas A&M 52. That makes me nod.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Tennessee’s been shooting better, but still has a pretty deep hole to climb out of, but the good news is that Texas A&M is a really bad shooting team.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Neither team writing home about this one.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Eh, basically even here.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Ooh. Goodness. These guys live at the line. Good to know.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.6 (No. 209), and A&M’s defensive eFG% is 46.9 (No. 84). This is where I would usually say that Tennessee’s shooting woes aren’t getting better tonight, but they have actually been shooting better, so what do I know?

When Texas A&M has the ball

The Aggies’ eFG% is 45.3 (No. 327), and Tennessee’s shooting defense is 43.2 (No. 8). Could be a long night for the Aggies.

Conclusions

A&M has a pretty good shooting defense, but the Vols seem to have found their touch lately. On the other end, there is a monstrous disparity with a terrible shooting team going up against an elite shooting defense in the Vols. This could be fun. For us.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

The Vols turnover % is still terrible at 20.9 (No. 280), and the Aggies’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 21.6 (No. 59). Smh.

When A&M has the ball

A&M’s turnover % is identical to that of Tennessee’s at 20.9 (No. 281) and ranks lower only by a third-letter tiebreaker. It will be going up against a defensive rating of 19.6 (No. 141).

Conclusions

Rather than fighting this, I’m just going to think differently about it for the sake of my sanity. Turnovers are fun!

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 29.4 (No. 120), and A&M’s defense in that category is 31.5 (No. 300).

When A&M has the ball

The Aggies’ OR% is 29 (No. 138), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 27.4 (No. 145).

Conclusions

Maybe a slight advantage for the Vols on the offensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34 (No. 130), while Texas A&M’s defense against that is 25.3 (No. 33).

When A&M has the ball

The Aggies’ FT Rate is 39.9 (No. 27), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 29.7 (No. 130).

Conclusions

A&M looks to have a huge advantage in free throw attempts.

Go Vols.

From the archives in the garage where this humble little thing was birthed:

It’s a bird! It’s a clown! It’s a Clown-Bird, complete with oversized puffy shoes and an abnormally-sized see-through beak. Sue Grafton says K is for Kill, but Kansas’ Jayhawk is not intimidating. Frightening, in a Teletubbie in your garage kind of way, yes, but intimidating? No.

LOL, your logo is sooo scary! at Rocky Top Talk

Apologies, but I thought it was worth setting the stage for Tennessee’s game against the Kansas Clown-Birds Saturday. Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for the game. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season. Hide the children.

Oof. The Clown-Birds are much, much better at shooting the ball than Tennessee, which you’d think would be hard to do with those shoes. Pretty much, they’re much, much better at everything. But you know what’s funny? They’re almost as bad as Tennessee at the thing Tennessee does worst: turning the ball over. Hahahahaha. Ahem.

Summary and Score Prediction

All those Feelies you’ve been having the past couple of games where the Vols have been shooting well? Expect those particular emojis to turn pink, then red, and then sweat blood before they shoot steam out their ears and blow up. Expecting the Vols to shoot well against Kansas is a recipe for disappointment and distress.

But chin up, because although the Clown Birds generally shoot really well, they’ll be going up against an elite shooting defense in Tennessee. Big 12, meet Yves Pons. He can jump higher than you can shoot. Go ahead, try it.

More bad news: Kansas is playing at home, and the scouting report says that they wear cloaking devices at Allen Fieldhouse, devices that protect them from the prying eyes of the officials and thereby bestow upon them a kind of Foul Amnesty. Hey, it’s not just me. We, on the other hand, must deal with not being invisible, which sucks but is the way of the world.

Other than that, the numbers suggest that Kansas’ edge in rebounding is only slight and that the teams will attempt to outdo each other in the turnover department, giving the ball to the other team more often than that 1987 fruitcake at your white elephant office Christmas party this year. It has the makin’s of something sloppy, is what I’m saying.

The goals for the Vols:

1. If you shoot poorly, make them shoot worse. Possess this ability, you do.
2. Turn turnovers into easy points. If somebody gives you cake, you eat it, right? Eat the cake.
3. If able, steal their cloaking devices. If you manage this, the Big 12 will award you an honorary doctorate from every school in the conference. Except probably Kansas.

KenPom gives Tennessee a whopping 10% chance of winning and puts the score at Kansas 68, Tennessee 54. I’m hoping for more cake and a closer game.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Well, Tennessee’s been shooting better recently (49% from the field and 29.4% from three against Ole Miss and 53.1% from the field against Vanderbilt), but the Vols’ effective field goal percentage is still lagging at 48.5. This ranks them as No. 216 in the nation. (There’s a reason you’ve never heard the cheer “We’re No. 216! We’re No. 216! I mean besides being as awkward as “Okay Google.”) Kansas, on the other hand, well, they’re elite shooters. Bums.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Well, look at that. We’re all in the 200s. If too many turnovers is good enough for Kansas, maybe I’ll stop complaining about them. (But probably not.)

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Okay, not terrible here, but Kansas is still better.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Ditto that on free throw rate. Kansas is better, but not by a lot.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

You’ll recall that We’re No. 216 in eFG%. That stat will be going up against a Kansas defensive eFG% of . . . 43.7 (No. 15). Great.

When Kansas has the ball

The Jayhawks’ eFG% is 54.9 (No. 12), but Tennessee’s shooting defense is 42.9 (No. 7). Hey, that could work.

Conclusions

Don’t disappoint yourself by expecting Tennessee to shoot as well against Kansas as it did against Vanderbilt and Ole Miss. Hey, if it happens, by all means do some cartwheels, but if it doesn’t, don’t take it out on your TV. Now that I think about it, get out the chickenwire.

The good news is that Tennessee should be able to return the favor of frustration.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee turned the ball over only 8 times against Ole Miss, but somehow this YUGE news got swallowed up by an ever-growing fascination for the flopsy-haired John Fulkerson. The Vols turnover % is still squarely in Terrible Territory at 20.8 (No. 263), but the Jayhawks’ defensive counterpart to this stat isn’t anything to wire home about at 19.3 (No. 161).

When Kansas has the ball

Kansas’ turnover % is located in the same sketchy campground as the Vols, at 19.6 (No. 204), and Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.2 (No. 113).

Conclusions

Forecast: Sloppy. Think pigs in a mudslide.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 29.2 (No. 129), and Kansas’ defense in that category is 25.7 (No. 75). Whatever.

When Kansas has the ball

The Jayhawks’ OR% is 32.5 (No. 56), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 27.3 (No. 143).

Conclusions

So, uh, these guys can rebound, but this is far from an uneven match.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34.3 (No. 123), while Kansas’ defense against that is 22.4 (No. 15). So they play defense without fouling, apparently. This, presumably, is due to the fact that they play roughly half of their games in Allen Fieldhouse, where they reportedly never touch anybody.

When Kansas has the ball

The Jayhawks’ FT Rate is 35.4 (No. 93), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 28.1 (No. 86).

Conclusions

Look, the notion that the Clown Birds get favorable whistles at home is so widely reported that it might even be partly true. Deal with it.

Go Vols.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Ole Miss Rebels. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

Summary and Score Prediction

In the second half against Vanderbilt Saturday, the Vols seemed to finally figure out how to get behind the defense, whether that was by foregoing threes, by transition offense resulting from good defense on the other end, by an increased emphasis and better execution getting the ball into the post, or by simply driving or passing around defenders to penetrate into the lane. Whatever the case, they shot 66.67% in the second half after managing only 40% in the first.

If that becomes a thing, and if the Vols can continue to keep their already stellar defensive play intact while doing it, then everything should begin to improve. Tonight against Ole Miss, they should have an opportunity to see if that second half at Vandy was an aberration or the first glimpse of a blossoming identity that can serve them well the rest of the way.

The goals for the Vols:

1. On offense, get behind the outside guards. Drive or pass into the post or lane. Play inside-out. However you phrase it, get closer to the basket and continue to improve that shooting percentage.
2. On defense, do what you do, but when you’re done, get to the other end quickly so everything in Step 1 is easier.
3. Turnovers. Sigh. Somebody do something about this.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 78% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 68, Ole Miss 60. We’ll take that.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: As much trouble in the form of inconsistency the Vols have been having shooting the ball this season, Ole Miss really isn’t much better.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Shaking my head at the Vols ranking No. 285 in turnover percentage. Fortunately, the Rebels are pretty careless with the ball, too.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Well here we go. The Vols appear to be much better than Ole Miss at grabbing offensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Ole Miss is a lot like Cincinnati in getting to the free throw line, and they’re much better at it than the Vols.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Despite shooting much better from the field against Vanderbilt (53.1%), Tennessee’s eFG% is still only 48.2 (No. 227). It will be going up against an Ole Miss defensive eFG% of 48.4 (No. 148).

When Ole Miss has the ball

The Rebels’ eFG% is 49.2 (No. 187), but Tennessee’s shooting defense is 43.4 (No. 13).

Conclusions

It’s anybody’s guess at this point how well or how poorly the Vols will shoot against any given team. The good news, though, is that the Vols’ shooting defense is really, really good, so shooting better than the opponent is always on the table.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s terrible turnover % is now 21.2 (No. 285), while the Rebels’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 20.3 (No. 114).

When Ole Miss has the ball

Ole Miss’ turnover % is 19.7 (No. 206), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.4 (No. 105).

Conclusions

I’m not sure that the opponent matters so much anymore for the Vols, as they just need to focus on not just gifting the ball to the other team. Period.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30 (No. 107), but Ole Miss’ defense in that category is 24.9 (No. 50).

When Ole Miss has the ball

The Rebels’ OR% is 27.3 (No. 210), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 27 (No. 120).

Conclusions

Offensive boards should be at a premium for both teams tonight.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.5 (No. 143), while Ole Miss’ defense against that is 37.5 (No. 278).

When Ole Miss has the ball

The Rebels’ FT Rate is 36.7 (No. 72), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 28.8 (No. 109).

Conclusions

Tennessee’s still not especially good at getting to the line, but the Vols should have some opportunities to get there more often than usual tonight against the Rebs. This is especially true if the ability to get behind the defense against the Commodores in the second half becomes a thing.

Go Vols.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Vanderbilt Commodores. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

This makes it look like Vanderbilt is shooting better than Tennessee and getting to the line more often, but that the Vols are rebounding better. Let’s take a closer look.

Summary and Score Prediction

Let’s hope some of this bad news is the result of hitting the reset button too many times, thus dropping a team in search of chemistry into a field full of opponents with a head start in finding their own. Still, the Vols need to improve almost everything, and shooting better and limiting turnovers are chief on the long list of important tasks. They’ll have opportunities against Vanderbilt, but they’ll also need to make sure they stay in character on defense as well to come out of Nashville with a win tomorrow.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Shoot better. Start with getting the ball to John Fulkerson in the post. Aim for a better percentage than Vanderbilt both from the field and from the arc. (I know — duh. But if they do that, they’ll be shooting better than usual and also holding Vanderbilt to something less than theirs.)
2. Limit the turnovers. Ten or fewer would be good.
3. Capitalize on the rebounding advantage.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 64% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 71, Vanderbilt 67. Sounds about right to me.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: The Commodores are a much better shooting team than the Vols. In fact, they’re the best-shooting team we’ve played this season and very similar to LSU in this regard.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Vanderbilt also protects the ball much better than Tennessee does (obvs). They are most similar to FSU among prior Vols opponents.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: The Vols have the advantage in offensive rebounding, and the Commodores are most similar to Florida A&M and Chattanooga in this category.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most similar to Memphis (and Murray State) and with a pretty significant advantage over the Vols.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is a dismal 47.9 (No. 232), but it will be going up against a similarly dismal defense that is 51.5 (No. 253).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

The Commodores’ eFG% is 54 (No. 25), but Tennessee’s shooting defense is 44.6 (No. 31).

Conclusions

When it comes to shooting percentages, it’s weakness-on-weakness and strength-on-strength, and about evenly-matched to boot.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a terrible turnover % of 20.9 (No. 267), while the Commodores’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 19.9 (No. 138).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vanderbilt’s turnover % is 18.8 (No. 130), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.1 (No. 122).

Conclusions

As I said the last time around, the Vols are always going to be outmatched in this category (from an offensive perspective) until they earn some dramatic improvement. They’ll have an opportunity tomorrow. As far as forcing turnovers, the stage is set for a normal result.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30 (No. 113). Vanderbilt’s defense in that category is 28.9 (No. 205).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

The Commodores’ OR% is 27.2 (No. 210), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 26.8 (No. 112).

Conclusions

The Vols appear to have a pretty good edge in rebounding. They’ll need it.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate remains 33.8 (No. 133), while Vanderbilt’s defense against that is 35 (No. 241).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

The Commodores’ FT Rate is 40.4 (No. 23), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 27.5 (No. 85).

Conclusions

Tennessee’s not especially good at getting to the line, but the Vols should be able to get there more often than usual tomorrow against the Commodores. On the other side, Vandy’s good at getting there, but Tennessee might be able to limit those opportunities a bit.

Go Vols.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the South Carolina Gamecocks. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

Basically even, but Tennessee is shooting better from three.

Summary and Score Prediction

The weatherman isn’t always right, and although Tuesday night’s forecast of ugly shooting percentages never happened, we’re doubling down on that this weekend. The Vols have to correct their turnover issues as they are literally giving games away, but improving that this weekend may be difficult. The game may be won at the foul line.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Whatever they did to shoot well despite playing a good defense at Missouri Tuesday, do that again. If they can get above 50% from two and 45% from three again, awesome. But even their averages of 43% and 33% would be good against a good defensive team.
2. It will be difficult against a defensively active team like South Carolina, but the Vols have to protect the ball better. Aim for 12 or fewer turnovers.
3. Win an apparently even rebounding matchup.
4. Make the most of an advantage at getting to the foul line themselves while playing aggressive defense on the other end without fouling. The goal here is to get to 20 attempts while keeping South Carolina to under 20.

KenPom gives Tennessee an 81% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 71, South Carolina 62.

My prediction: Tennessee 73, South Carolina 67.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Tennessee is a better-shooting team overall. Among prior Vols’ opponents, South Carolina is most like Jacksonville State and Florida A&M in that department. We scored 75 and 72 against those teams.

Turnover %

Conclusion: These guys protect the ball much better than the Vols do. They do it as well as VCU and LSU.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Again, South Carolina is much better at grabbing offensive rebounds than are the Vols. Best comps are Memphis and Florida State.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Tennessee and South Carolina are pretty comparable when it comes to Free Throw Rate.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 49.3 (No. 178), and it will be going up against a defense that is 45.2 (No. 46).

When South Carolina has the ball

The Gamecocks’ eFG% is 47.5 (No. 241), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 44.5 (No. 31).

Conclusions

Both defenses are equipped to make things difficult for the opposing offenses. We said this about that last game against Missouri, though, and it didn’t seem to bother the Vols, so we’ll see. I’d still expect to see both offenses struggle a bit more than usual.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a turnover % of 20.9 (No. 257), while the Gamecocks’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 21.9 (No. 63). They Vols are always going to be outmatched in this category until they earn some dramatic improvement.

When South Carolina has the ball

South Carolina’s turnover % is 19.1 (No. 149), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20 (No. 142).

Conclusions

I’d expect the Vols to be focusing on correcting their turnovers problem, but I wouldn’t expect too much noticeable improvement tomorrow against the Gamecocks.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30 (No. 114). South Carolina’s defense in that category is 28.1 (No. 163).

When South Carolina has the ball

The Gamecocks’ OR% is 32.6 (No. 61), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 25.4 (No. 73).

Conclusions

This appears to be an evenly-matched game from a rebounding perspective.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.8 (No. 133), while South Carolina’s defense against that is 46.6 (No. 344).

When South Carolina has the ball

The Gamecocks’ FT Rate is 34.2 (No. 119), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.2 (No. 61).

Conclusions

It appears that the Vols should be able to both get to the foul line more often than usual and keep South Carolina from getting there as often as it usually does.

Go Vols.

Tennessee came into last night’s game against Missouri with one of the SEC’s worst shooting percentages, turning the ball over 13.5 times per game, still breaking in a just-now-Coming-to-America point guard, and navigating the delicate issue of a Jordan Bowden shooting slump. Traveling to Columbia, Missouri to take on a Cuonzo Martin team 5th in the nation in KenPom’s defensive effective field goal percentage seemed like the makings of a bad night for the Vols.

Never mind.

Not only were the Vols unfazed by Missouri’s defense, they improved their averages rather dramatically. Coming into the game sporting season-long shooting percentages of 42.6% from the field and 31.8% from the arc, Tennessee hit 53.5% from the field and 45.8% from three.

Never mind that Bowden slump, either, as he went 5-12 (41.67%) from the field and 2-7 (28.57%) from three. He’s still better than that, but seeing the ball go through the hole for Bowden is a welcome sight.

Meanwhile, the Vols defense held Missouri to 35.2% from the field and 36% from the arc. Only two Missouri players — Mitchell Smith and Tray Jackson — hit double figures. Contrast that to Tennessee, who had six players in double figures on the night.

That flurry of turnovers we forecasted yesterday did in fact happen, but new point guard Santiago Vescovi didn’t have 64% of them this time like he did against LSU. He led the clubhouse with 5, but John Fulkerson also had 5, and Josiah Jordan-James had 4. Several others got into the action as well: Yves Pons had 3, Olivier Nkamhoua had 2, and Bowden and Jalen Johnson each had one.

Vescovi, by the way, not only improved his ball-protection, he basically took over in the second half, going on an 8-0 run by himself with six minutes remaining and the score tied at 53. This guy needs a nickname, stat.

I know that Jeremiah Tilmon didn’t play for Missouri and that that mattered last night. But two games in to the Great Reset of 2019-20, the Vols are miles away from whatever happened in that Wisconsin game. If they can continue to improve at anything close to that rate, there might be some magic in store for this season after all.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Missouri Tigers. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

Summary and Score Prediction

Tonight’s forecast calls for ugly shooting percentages and flurries of turnovers with dangerous accumulation for Tennessee. The best opportunity for the Vols appears to be getting to the foul line as often as possible and hitting the freebies once there.

The goals for the Vols:

1. If you’re not going to shoot well, don’t shoot often.
2. Try to limit turnovers, but don’t get frustrated when they happen. They do that to everybody, but they’ll also allow you to return the favor.
3. Drive into the paint, draw the foul, and hit the free throws.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 37% chance of winning and puts the score at Missouri 62, Tennessee 59. The line is Missouri -4.

My prediction: Missouri 64, Tennessee 57.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Tennessee and Missouri look pretty even here. Missouri’s most like Jacksonville State among the Vols’ prior opponents.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Again, not a lot separates these two teams on turnovers, and Missouri’s most like Jacksonville State.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Missouri’s a good team on the boards and compares best to Murray State.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Missouri’s currently tied with Florida A&M in Free Throw Rate. The Vols are better, but not by a lot.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.3 (No. 216), and it will be going up against a defense that is 41.4 (No. 5). Uh-oh.

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ eFG% is 49.3 (No. 178), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 44.6 (No. 36) and trending in the wrong direction.

Conclusions

As Will noted earlier this morning, Cuonzo Martin’s defense is not what you want to see if you are an offense looking for answers. Brace for ugly.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a turnover % of 20 (No. 207), while the Tigers’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 23 (No. 37). Also uh-oh.

When Missouri has the ball

Missouri’s turnover % is 21.5 (No. 284), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20 (No. 143).

Conclusions

As with shooting percentage, the Vols’ turnover problems are likely to be magnified by Cuonzo Martin’s defensive-minded team.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30.4 (No. 102). Missouri’s defense in that category is 24.8 (No. 53).

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ OR% is 31.3 (No. 80), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 25.2 (No. 68).

Conclusions

Rebounding is more of an even match, although Missouri is still a good rebounding team.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.4 (No. 141), while Missouri’s defense against that is 38.2 (No. 291). Finally, some good news.

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ FT Rate is 30.8 (No. 199), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 25.7 (No. 55).

Conclusions

If there’s an opportunity to be had for the Vols in this matchup, it appears to be in getting to the free-throw line. They don’t actually get there often, but Missouri both likes to foul and has trouble getting to the line themselves.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tonight’s forecast calls for ugly shooting percentages and flurries of turnovers with dangerous accumulation for Tennessee. The best opportunity for the Vols appears to be getting to the foul line as often as possible and hitting the freebies once there.

The goals for the Vols:

1. If you’re not going to shoot well, don’t shoot often.
2. Try to limit turnovers, but don’t get frustrated when they happen. They do that to everybody, but they’ll also allow you to return the favor.
3. Drive into the paint, draw the foul, and hit the free throws.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 37% chance of winning and puts the score at Missouri 62, Tennessee 59. The line is Missouri -4.

My prediction: Missouri 64, Tennessee 57.

Go Vols.