Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

Here’s the Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Auburn Tigers. As always, the conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

And here’s how the last game between these two teams played out:

Okay, so turnovers were a total aberration last game. Do not repeat.

Summary and Score Prediction

As we said in advance of the last game between these two teams, the numbers suggest that Tennessee will have its hands full against an Auburn team elite at offensive rebounding and getting to the free-throw line. But, the Vols did have 17-point lead at one point against them less than two weeks and although they ended up losing by 7, they pretty much gave the game away in the form of an aberrant 24 turnovers, so there’s reason to believe. (I mean, if you don’t already believe after what happened against Kentucky.)

The goals for the Vols, which are the same as last time, but with a certain portion now made bold:

1. Sharpen the sword of the shooting defense; it will be needed.
2. Don’t turn the ball over as much as usual. Possessions will be especially valuable.
3. Do what you can do in boxing out, rebounding the ball, and defending without fouling. This is where they’ll either beat you or give you the game.

KenPom actually likes the Vols at home and puts the score at Tennessee 68, Auburn 66. Buckle up, and keep your eyes on The Incredible Fulk.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Memphis and VCU and actually not much better than Tennessee.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Florida and South Carolina. Tennessee has had put up some major stinkers in this category throughout the season, including in the prior meeting with Auburn. They have the ability to limit that, though. It’s just a question of whether they do in any given game.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: These guys have a backpack full of kryptonite in store for the Vols.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Sheesh, that’s not fair. Dudes are shooting 27 free throws per game.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

At this point, I think Tennessee is better than its season-long numbers suggest, and its defense is every bit as good as the numbers suggest. I’m giving the advantage to the Vols here.

Turnover %

Conclusions

This really should have been much closer to even last game, but for the Vols going on a major binge. Let’s hope they at least stay in character tomorrow and don’t give up more than 13 or 14.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Alright, that is just really bad news right there. I don’t even know what you tell a bad defensive rebounding team going up against an excellent offensive rebounding team. Just don’t bleed out and get in as many licks as you can. On the other hand, we did get almost as many as they did last game, so that’s one actual way you can make up for it.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Oh, gross. Ick. This makes it look like we’re just going to play the entire game standing there at the foul line watching them shoot. Which is kind of how it turned out last time around, with them shooting 27 times to our 17. Maybe we should just back off a little when defending, I don’t know. At least early, so nobody important has to sit on the bench when needed.

Go Vols.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Florida Gators. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow.

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is generally doing at this point in the season.

Summary and Score Prediction

On the all-important effective field goal percentage metrics, Florida’s defense appears to have a vast advantage when the Vols are shooting. On the flip side, the Vols’ defense has an advantage when the Gators are shooting, but it is more muted.

The same holds true for offensive rebounding percentage: The Vols appear to have a slight advantage on their own offensive side of the court, but Florida appears to have a more pronounced advantage when they have the ball.

It will come as no surprise that Florida has the advantage on both ends when it comes to turnovers.

If there’s any major advantage for the Vols, it comes at getting to the free-throw line, where they rank 63rd against Florida’s 228th defensive counterpart. Florida does have an advantage on the other end in this category, but it is not quite as pronounced.

So, the goals for the Vols in this game:

1. Minimize the weaknesses: Shoot well by playing inside-out, reduce turnovers by making safe, crisp passes, box out and rebound on defense.
2. Maximize the strengths: Clamp down on defense, but don’t foul unless it’s in the paint, get greedy for offensive rebounds, go through defenders and get to the rim to earn as many trips to the foul line as possible.

KenPom thinks this one is a toss-up, giving Florida a slight edge and putting the score at Florida 65, Tennessee 64.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Chattanooga and Mississippi State, and much better than the Vols.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Continued problems here for the Vols. Florida protects the ball pretty well.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Even.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Advantage, Tennessee.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Florida’s shooting defense isn’t spectacular, but Tennessee’s shooting woes are well-documented. And on the other side of the court, the Vols’ usual stout defense (the last Arkansas game notwithstanding) probably won’t have as much of an advantage as usual.

Turnover %

Conclusions

This gets more depressing every time I look at it. So, I’m typing this with my eyes closed.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Looks like a Florida advantage here to me, both sides considered.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Tennessee’s ability to get to the free-throw line has somewhat quietly become a strength of the team. Florida plays such aggressive defense that they tend to put opponents there a lot. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee also tends to put opponents there, but Florida is not as good as Tennessee at making it happen. Advantage, Tennessee.

Go Vols.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Arkansas Razorbacks. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline and the result of the last matchup between these two teams, and the details follow.

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is generally doing at this point in the season.

Summary and Score Prediction

Previously on the Vols-Hogs, our two game previews were entitled Save Yourself with Rebounds and Hey, Look! We’re Bigger Than These Guys! Turns out, that did, in fact, matter, but it wasn’t the only thing that mattered in an 82-61 rout by the Vols. Also contributing to the blowout was a reliable Vols defense, a surprisingly hot-shooting Vols offense, and being able to get to the line almost as much as they did:

Only two weeks later, the numbers all pretty much look the same. Should we expect the same result? The Vols are probably not going to hold Mason Jones to 9 points on 1-of-10 shooting again, but if they are as inside-out focused in this one as they were the last one, you have to like their chances.

The goals for the Vols (only slightly revised from the last game):

1. Rebound. When you shoot, you’re likely going to miss (or maybe not!), but the Hogs will let you try again if you just go get the ball.
2. When you get a rebound, go up toward to rim through a defender and get to the foul line.
3. Rebound. You can frustrate Arkansas into bad shots, and they don’t like offensive boards, so give them one bad shot only.

Vegas likes the Hogs at home by 5.5, and KenPom agrees, putting the score at Arkansas 67, Tennessee 62. Me, I’d like a repeat performance instead, please.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Wisconsin and Auburn, and better than the Vols.

Turnover %

Conclusion: We have this picture of our youngest daughter’s second birthday party where she is giving an Olympic stink-eye to some poor boy innocently eating her chocolate birthday cake. I imagine Arkansas feeling the same way, except they never actually get to the stink-eye part; they just take their cake into the closet, bar the door, and eat the whole thing themselves. Bummer, too, because I like chocolate cake and when the other team gives my team the ball for free.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Woo. As we now say every time we talk about this stat, the Vols can’t seem to beat any teams in the top half of that list, but they can’t seem to lose to any in the bottom half. Hello down there, Arkansas!

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, these guys are getting to the line. Tennessee’s making inroads in this category, though, so it shouldn’t be too lopsided.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Same story different game, a struggling Vols offense goes up against a good defense, but an elite Vols defense should balance it out. Oh, and we shot nearly 50% from the field and over 37% from three when these two teams last met, while the Vols held the Hogs to 31% from the field.

Turnover %

Conclusions

The last time I looked at this for the Arkansas game, I LOL’d here. Imma do it again: LOL (through tears). Hey, we’ll get better, eventually. Plus, the last time out, Tennessee had only 11 turnovers to Arkansas’ 14, so what do these stats know?

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Apparently, wild pigs can’t jump or grab rebounds with those short, little stubby ham legs. This is very good news and could once again be a factor in the Vols winning this game.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

On the other hand, the Hogs will both put you on the line and get there themselves. Free throw attempts were 30 for the Vols to 36 for the Hogs last game, so make ’em count!

Go Vols.

Here’s the Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Auburn Tigers. As always, the conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

Auburn’s a better rebounding team and boy, do they shoot a lot of free throws. Other than that, things look kinda sorta even.

Summary and Score Prediction

The Auburn Tigers are on a bit of a skid here recently, having lost to two teams with losing records — Missouri and Georgia — by double digits the last two times they’ve taken the court. Prior to that, they were 22-2. Both losses could be attributed to missing Isaac Okoro, and at the time I’m writing this it’s unclear whether he’ll be back for the Tennessee game.

The numbers by themselves, though, suggest that Tennessee will have its hands full against an Auburn team elite at offensive rebounding and getting to the free-throw line. The Vols will have to minimize the damage done on those two fronts and hope that their still-stellar shooting defense and an increased focus on not turning the ball over are enough to make up for those disadvantages.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Sharpen the sword of the shooting defense; it will be needed.
2. Don’t turn the ball over as much as usual. Possessions will be especially valuable.
3. Do what you can do in boxing out, rebounding the ball, and defending without fouling. This is where they’ll either beat you or give you the game.

KenPom gives this one to Auburn and puts the score at Auburn 69, Tennessee 63. That’s spittin’ distance, at least.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Wisconsin and Arkansas from a shooting perspective. Better than Tennessee, but not by a ton.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like UNC Asheville and VCU protecting the ball, and much better than Tennessee.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Oof. Most like LSU and Florida State, and waaaay to close to the top of that list that has almost always doomed this Vols team. In case you missed it, the Vols have only one win against roughly the top half of that list and have only one loss against roughly the bottom half. Bad news for the good guys Saturday.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Double oof. Auburn is the best we’ve played all year at getting to the foul line.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols have generally put up poor shooting numbers this season. Auburn’s a decent defense, so they could make things difficult. But on the other end, Tennessee’s defense is elite, and Auburn’s shooting offense isn’t anything to write home about. We’re used to not shooting particularly well, but they could get frustrated.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Not much to see here, really, although after the tongue-lashing the guys got from Rick Barnes Tuesday night, I’d expect them to put a bit more focus on not turning the ball over, and they could have some success against an Auburn defense not especially good at forcing turnovers. On the other side of the court, it looks like an even matchup as well.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

This is where the Vols are likely doomed. Auburn is an elite offensive rebounding team, and over the course of the season, Tennessee has shown little ability to keep those kinds of teams from getting what they want on the offensive glass and winning the game because of it.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

There’s also much danger here, with Auburn a Top 3 team in the country at getting free shots and Tennessee all too willing to put them there.

Go Vols.

Here’s the Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Vanderbilt Commodores, a must-win for the Vols if they’re wanting to remain in the bubble conversation. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

Vanderbilt’s better at shooting threes and getting to the foul line, but Tennessee’s defense is much, much better than Vandy’s.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tennessee’s shooting offense gets a welcome reprieve tonight in playing a Vanderbilt shooting defense that is really struggling. And Tennessee’s smothering defense should frustrate Vanderbilt into poor percentages. Add to that the fact that Vanderbilt is also a terrible offensive rebounding team, and the Vols should have the advantage tonight. If there’s danger, it’s likely found at the free-throw line, as both teams tend to get there often, and both are too willing to comply.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Win the shooting percentages battle. Do what you do on defense, and seize the opportunity to shoot better than usual on offense.
2. No second shots for Vanderbilt. None.
3. Stay at least even on free throw attempts.

You’ll recall that the Vols beat Vanderbilt in Nashville 66-45 on January 18. KenPom says to expect something similar tonight and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Vanderbilt 62.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Georgia and Kentucky from a shooting perspective.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Better taking care of the ball than the Vols — and most like VCU and LSU in this regard — but Tennessee’s recent trend of doing better here may negate some or all of that.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: In case you missed it, Gavin observed last week that the Vols are now 1-10 against the Top 10 teams on that list and 13-1 against the Bottom 14. Good news for the Vols tonight: Vanderbilt is a terrible offensive-rebounding team.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: These guys are really, really good at getting to the foul line. We’re climbing our way into the “We’re No Slouches, Either” category, but we’re not quite there yet.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

When the Vols are shooting, this is weakness-on-weakness, so expect Tennessee to actually shoot better tonight. On the other side of the court, the Vols should be able to really frustrate Vanderbilt.

Turnover %

Conclusions

I don’t know that this really matters so much in this game.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

The thing that matters most here is that Vanderbilt is decidedly not good at offensive rebounding, and the Vols tend to take advantage of that kind of thing.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Both teams like to get to the free-throw line, and both teams are all too willing to send the other there.

Go Vols.

Here’s the Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the South Carolina Gamecocks. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

Summary and Score Prediction

With both Tennessee and South Carolina sporting excellent shooting defenses, the biggest factor will probably be which team is able to solve the problems created by the other and shoot a decent percentage anyway. For the Vols, the best opportunity to make this happen is to drive to the basket where the percentages are better and where South Carolina is likely to foul and put you on the line. Tennessee’s vulnerable in the turnover department and on the boards when the Gamecocks are shooting.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Solve the Gamecocks’ defense and shoot a higher percentage by driving to the basket and getting fouled.
2. Box out and rebound when South Carolina is shooting.
3. Don’t give the game away on turnovers.

You’ll recall that the Vols won the early matchup with the Gamecocks 56-55 in Knoxville. KenPom gives this one to the Gamecocks and puts the score at South Carolina 69, Tennessee 66.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Basically, us. Kind of like playing Mississippi or Missouri.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Mississippi and Kansas in the turnovers department. More careful with the ball than we are.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Oh, a really good offensive rebounding team. Most like Florida State and Cincinnati.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Again, basically us. Most like playing Alabama or Missouri.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Two struggling shooting offenses going up against really, really good shooting defenses.

Turnover %

Conclusions

I really need to start putting trends in here because I feel like Tennessee is improving in turnovers and is being anchored down by its season-long numbers. But this shows potential trouble for the Vols if they haven’t improved, as South Carolina is pretty good at forcing turnovers.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

There’s danger on the glass when the Gamecocks are shooting.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Well. There’s some welcome good news. Tennessee isn’t exactly what you would call stellar at getting to the line (although, again, they’ve been doing better recently), but South Carolina likes to roll out the red carpet and pre-program your GPS to help you find your way there. We tend to do that a bit ourselves, but not quite to the extent SC does.

Go Vols.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Arkansas Razorbacks. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

Summary and Score Prediction

The forecast for tonight against the Hogs calls not only for still more rain, but for more poor shooting percentages and more turnovers. In the midst of those dark skies, though, there is a shining beacon of light in the fact that Arkansas thinks rebounds have cooties and just won’t touch them. For a team struggling to shoot the ball but full of swagger on the other end, this is fantastic news and provides the best opportunity to turn all those lemons into lemonade. Also, if the Vols will just bang a little instead of shoot a lot, the Hogs will put them on the line.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Rebound. When you shoot, you’re likely going to miss, but the Hogs will let you try again if you just go get the ball.
2. When you get a rebound, go up toward to rim through a defender and get to the foul line.
3. Rebound. You can frustrate Arkansas into bad shots, and they don’t like offensive boards, so give them one bad shot only.

Vegas likes the Vols by 2.5-3, but KenPom calls this one a toss-up and puts the score at Tennessee 66, Arkansas 65. Buckle up!

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Kentucky and Wisconsin, and quite a bit better than the Vols, as are most teams.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Oof. These guys are downright Scroogy. Sharing is caring, y’all.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Either these guys are allergic to the offensive glass or they never miss. I’m going with the former.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like Washington and Mississippi State, these guys are getting to the line. Tennessee’s getting better, if they can just remember that the road to the foul line goes through defenders in a straight line to the rim rather than by trying to shoot over them.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Man, oh man. Will the Vols ever catch a break? Maybe the reason they’re not shooting well is that they’re playing really good shooting defenses every time they step on the court. On the other hand, defensive shooting percentage is still holding . . . steady.

Turnover %

Conclusions

LOL. This is like leaving the door wide open for a master burglar. Get ready to cringe. Oh, and they won’t return the favor because SCROOGE.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Not only are the Hogs allergic to the offensive glass, it looks like they just don’t like rebounding period. This is good news, both for a good shooting defense and a bad shooting offense.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

The Hogs will let you get to the foul line if only you decide to make it a priority. Do the Vols want to shoot free throws? Stay tuned!

Go Vols.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Kentucky Wildcats. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

It should come as no surprise at this point that a Tennessee opponent has better shooting numbers than the Vols. Turnovers and offensive rebounds look about even, but Kentucky is better at defensive rebounds and getting to the free-throw line.

Summary and Score Prediction

Shooting Blues, the Vols got ’em and probably aren’t getting rid of them tomorrow against Kentucky, but should be kept in the game by their shooting defense. Expect no surprises relating to turnovers for either team, but expect a fair amount of frustration in the form of offensive boards and trips to the free-throw line for Kentucky.

The goals for the Vols:

1. As always, make the most of the advantage on defense because the offense is probably going to need it.
2. Minimize Kentucky’s offensive boards by boxing out and getting the ball after missed shots.
3. That thing you did against Alabama to buck the trend of them living at the line? Do that again against the guys in blue.

KenPom gives Tennessee a somewhat surprising 51% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 66, Kentucky 65. WooGoVols!

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Cincinnati and Wisconsin, and quite a bit better than the Vols.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Well, turnovers per game may look even, but turnover percentage is a different story. Among Tennessee’s prior opponents, Kentucky is most like Chattanooga and VCU, and they appear to be much better than the Vols.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Most like Florida State and Murray State. Not a whole lot better than Tennessee.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Oof. The best team we’ve played so far this season at getting to the line. But here’s a bit of good news: Alabama averages nearly 29 trips to the line per game, and against Tennessee they only got there 8 times. More of that magic, please.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Ugh. The crystal ball says more frustrating shooting percentages for the Vols tomorrow against the Wildcats. Fortunately, they should have some trouble with Tennessee’s defense, too.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Tennessee comes bearing gifts, but apparently Kentucky is too proud to take charity or something. On the other end, the Wildcats do a better job of protecting the ball once they have it, but the Vols are better burglars. Weakness on weakness and meh against meh.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

The news here is that Tennessee is all too willing to give up offensive boards, so Kentucky could go on a spree. The Vols are getting better at this, though, so maybe not.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

These numbers suggest that we could get to the line some but they could spend most of the game there. As I said before, the good news is that this spot forecasted terribly for the Alabama game, and the Vols shot 32 free throws to the Tide’s 8. Again! Again! Again!

Go Vols.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Alabama Crimson Tide. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

The official NCAA stats system has the vapors this morning, so the defensive shooting numbers are missing. But this part of the picture looks like we’ll be screaming REBOUND all night again.

Summary and Score Prediction

Expect more shooting woes for the Vols tonight, but as always, Tennessee’s stifling defense could keep the team in the game. It will need to, because it appears that we’re looking at another game of huge disparity on the free throw line, as the Vols can’t get there and Alabama can. Meanwhile, turnovers and rebounds look about even, so winning those battles could go a long way toward putting this one in the win column.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Make the most of the advantage on defense. If you can find your own shot to boot, awesome.
2. They’re going to get to the line, but don’t let them live there.
3. Win the turnover and rebounding margins by as much as possible.

KenPom gives Tennessee only a 30% chance of winning and puts the score at Alabama 76, Tennessee 70.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Florida State and UNC Asheville and much better than the Vols.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Murray State and Georgia. And basically Tennessee, too.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Most like Missouri and Jacksonville State, and not a whole lot better than the Vols.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like Mississippi State and Kansas (oof), and much better than the good guys.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

A Vols team still struggling to find its shooting touch will probably have trouble finding it tonight. But once again, Tennessee’s shooting defense could keep the Vols in the game.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Lots of ick here. Alabama’s not especially good at forcing turnovers, so perhaps the Vols can make up some ground and protect the ball tonight. On the other side, Tennessee should get a healthy portion of freebies.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

This looks pretty even, which means winning it will be important.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Ugh. We can’t get to the free-throw line. They can. We’ll let them.

Go Vols.