Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

As we said in yesterday’s post ranking the SEC’s quarterback units, Tennessee shows up in the Top 4 in five of eight SEC unit rankings in the 2020 edition of our Gameday on Rocky Top magazine. The Vols QBs were ranked No. 4 yesterday, and today, the running backs also come in at No. 4.

2020 SEC Running Back Rankings

Additional comments

With Tua gone and an outstanding offensive line, this may be the year we see Alabama return to its run game roots, and it will be in good hands not only with Najee Harris, but with a couple of excellent complements as well.

Kentucky’s running game wasn’t the best in the league just because of Lynn Bowden, but also because of Asim Rose, Kavosiey Smoke, and Christopher Rodriguez. And Missouri is likely to lean on Larry Rountree III to help ease the transition to a new-look offense.

Then there’s Tennessee, led by Ty Chandler, Eric Gray, and Tim Jordan. With the way Gray finished last season, he is probably going to push Chandler for some serious playing time, and with their own outstanding offensive line, these guys should be primed for a solid season.

Your thoughts

What do y’all think? Where did we get it right? Where are we wrong?

Two years ago, we added SEC unit rankings to our annual college football preseason magazine for the first time. It was such a hit that we made it a regular feature. Unfortunately, back then it was a bit of a downer for Vols fans, as Tennessee was generally relegated to the “others” list at the bottom.

Not this year. Heading into this fall, the Power T shows up in the Top 4 in five of the eight rankings. Some of those rankings are probably going to come as a bit of a surprise, including the quarterback rankings, for which Tennessee ranks No. 4.

Here’s our complete list of quarterback rankings for the SEC this year, right out of the magazine. We’ll be publishing these over the course of the next couple of weeks, but each post will be live only for a day or few before it’s removed or moved to an in-process VIP area. If you want to see all of them all of the unit rankings at once and at your convenience, you’ll need to order the Gameday on Rocky Top magazine, which, by the way, arrived here yesterday and will ship the day after you place an order. It won’t hit the newsstands until sometime mid- to late-next week.

2020 SEC Quarterback Rankings

Additional comments

As the blurb up there says, with both Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa gone, I really like Kellen Mond among this batch of signal-callers. Kyle Trask in the hands of Dan Mullen is also pretty clearly in the upper tier with Mond.

Then there’s a bunch of experienced guys behind those two, including the Corral/Rhys Plumlee combo at Ole Miss now under the direction of Lane Kiffin and the Tennessee quarterback room, led by Jarrett Guarantano and assisted by a strong recruiting bump in the form of Harrison Bailey. Auburn’s Bo Nix, Alabama’s Mac Jones, and South Carolina’s Ryan Hilinski are all right there as well.

Seven SEC teams basically have unknowns at quarterback this fall. This is especially true for Vanderbilt, who will be back in just a minute. They had to run to Dollar General unexpectedly to get a QB off the shelf because they just ran out.

Your thoughts

What do y’all think? Where did we get it right? Where are we wrong?

Pages 92 and 93 of our Gameday on Rocky Top college football preseason magazine includes a Stock Watch that lists all of the SEC teams in order of how they finished in their respective divisions. For each team, it includes (1) a baseline (last year’s record, standing in the division, final ranking in the AP poll, if any, and final SP+ ranking), (2) this year’s returning production numbers, (3) this year’s overall team talent ranking, and (4) a projection for this year’s record and standing in the division. There’s also a BUY, SELL, or HOLD recommendation along with a short blurb explaining the rationale for the recommendation.

What we want to do today is take the whole stock concept just a bit further. I’m going to give each of you a hypothetical $100 worth of stock (because I’m hypothetically rich) in each of the 14 SEC teams. I’m also going to give you a hypothetical $600 cash (because I’m hypothetically generous as well.) Your job is to reallocate your SEC portfolio using those resources. What stock do you want to convert back into cash? What stock and how much of it do you want to buy?

Here’s how I did mine.

Dump

I’m dumping the following teams in the following amounts:

• LSU ($100)
• Georgia ($80)
• South Carolina ($100)
• Vanderbilt ($100)

LSU just has too many new parts in a season where I think continuity is more important than ever. Passing game coordinator Joe Brady and defensive coordinator Dave Aranda are both gone, and the roster returns the least amount of production of any team in the SEC, Joe Burrow chief among them. If the object is to buy low and sell high, you cash out when you think the stock is at an all-time high and likely to go down, and that’s what we have here. They’re not worth last year’s price. I’ll buy them again later.

Georgia’s defense was phenomenal last year and may get even better this year. But I think they have issues on offense, issues that didn’t just manifest this year with all of the departures. It actually started last season and will only be exacerbated by all of the departures this year. It just seemed to me like they missed Jim Chaney more with each game. Now, they have another new offensive coordinator, and when they lost offensive line guru Sam Pittman, four linemen decided to leave early, three to the NFL and one to Tennessee. And that’s before we even get to the fact that they’ll be breaking in a new quarterback in a short offseason. They’re still good, and that defense is so elite that it might actually be able to win most games all by its lonesome, but I just don’t see Georgia’s value going anywhere but down this fall. I’m keeping $20, but converting $80 to cash to spend in other places.

South Carolina and Vanderbilt? The forecast is gloomy for these guys. My official prognostication for the Gamecocks this year is that Will Muschamp, fair or not, is getting fired by his schedule. And you’re not going to lose money holding Vanderbilt stock because they can’t go lower than the basement, but that capital can be put to better use.

That gives me an extra $380 in cash to put a total of $980 in my account. I’ve zeroed out on LSU, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt, and I’m down to only $20 in Georgia stock.

Hold

Here’s what I’m going to hold:

• Missouri
• Auburn
• Mississippi State
• Arkansas

With the exception of Auburn, the decision to hold these teams is due primarily to them turning over the entire coaching staff combined with a catastrophe of an offseason. I will note that Drinkwitz did well in only a single season at Appalachian State, and I do like all of the new staff rosters. But until I see some evidence otherwise, I’m still convinced that this is a bad year to be a new team.

So why is Ole Miss, which also has a new staff, not on this list? We’ve seen up close and personal that Lane Kiffin can do well in a first year, and the Rebels return a ton of production.

Auburn? Shrug. I just don’t see them getting any better or worse. But they could also do either. So . . . hold is just a default decision for those guys.

Buy

Alright, so I have $980 to spend on teams I want to buy. Here’s how I’m spending that money:

• Texas A&M ($400)
• Tennessee ($300)
• Florida ($100)
• Alabama ($100)
• Kentucky ($40)
• Ole Miss ($40)

Texas A&M lost five games last year, but they only lost to really good teams. As I noted yesterday, they have more overall coaching and roster continuity than any team in the SEC. And this year, they trade a cross-divisional game with Georgia for one against Vanderbilt and a non-conference game against Clemson for one against Colorado. That’s two games better, just for free. LSU may still get them, but it’s not the automatic loss it was last year. Auburn . . . who knows? And Alabama probably gets them and the SEC West crown, but I think the Aggies have a pretty good shot. So I’m thinking some upside is practically guaranteed, and there’s a pretty good opportunity for a windfall. It’s not quite “all-in,” but it’s “more-in-on-them-than-anyone-else.”

My thought process on Tennessee is similar to that of A&M except without the dramatic and favorable change in schedule. I think the Vols get better even if they don’t get past Florida and/or Georgia, so there’s some upside in value there. I also think that the odds that they actually do get past either or both of Florida and Georgia is greater this year than it’s been for some time. So, I’m buying big on the Vols.

The problem is that Florida is getting better, too, so even though I’m going to have to keep that stock in a sealed container in the garage so it doesn’t smell up the house, I’m getting some extra of the Gators, too.

Alabama is an expensive, well-established stock, but I think it will tick up a bit this fall now that Joe Burrow isn’t in the way.

I just like Kentucky and Ole Miss. Good coaches with decent rosters that probably aren’t going to get into the mix for the divisional crowns but will likely increase in value this year.

Final ledger

Texas A&M	$500
Tennessee	$400
Florida	$200
Alabama	$200
Kentucky	$140
Ole Miss	$140
Missouri	$100
Auburn	$100
Mississippi State	$100
Arkansas	$100
Georgia	$20
South Carolina	$0
Vanderbilt	$0
LSU	$0

The GRT 2020 SEC stock re-allocation podcast

Will and I did our allocations live on the latest GRT podcast. Listen here:

https://soundcloud.com/user-284027139/gameday-on-rocky-top-podcast-episode-165-sec-stock-portfolio-re-allocation-for-2020

Your turn

What about you? What are you buying, selling, and smoking this year?

I don’t know if continuity.com is in use or whether and to what extent the term is being used as a trademark, but I might as well make a grab for it all myself, as I’ve been somewhat obsessed about the issue of continuity these last couple of weeks. I first tackled why and how much returning production matters and then posted the entire list of returning production for 2020, both nationally and in the SEC. And then I started thinking about coaches, and suddenly there were rabbit trails everywhere. The first one I poked my head into concerned head coaching and coordinator continuity in the SEC over the past ten years or so. It was dark down there. Dark and mysterious and fascinating, and it smelled like sweat and blood.

It just means more

Anyway, one of the primary reasons I’m so hyper-focused on coaching and roster continuity this summer is that I think the virus and the quarantine has amplified its importance this year.

Although the data from last week’s post proved only that continuity and change can be either good or bad depending on the personnel, it is true that change always introduces some degree of uncertainty. Uncertainty is often equal parts excitement and terror, and when you put a mic on that thing and redline the faders, it’s time for the popcorn.

There’s a reason teams don’t just gather for the first time an hour before kickoff and go play. They need time to prepare. Common sense suggests that time to prepare would be more important for teams with more uncertainty in the form of less coaching and roster continuity. With COVID-19 sending everyone into isolation just as spring practice was about to begin and teams just now, some four months later, beginning to reassemble, and with so much of the programs’ focus being appropriately diverted to safety issues, it stands to reason that preparation time this season will be at an all-time premium.

Bottom line, this seems like a really bad year to be a new team, and conversely, it seems like a really good year to know the person next to you.

So, which SEC teams will be at more of a disadvantage this fall due to the shortened offseason and the divided attention? And which should have more of an advantage due to continuity? There’s a table with all of the data below for your own perusal, but here are some of our findings.

SEC coaching continuity heading into 2020

First, let’s take a quick look at coaching continuity in the SEC just for this fall, as I somehow failed to hit that with last week’s barrage of continuity posts.

Five SEC teams have complete continuity with respect to their head coaching and coordinator positions this year: Texas A&M, Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, and, somewhat surprisingly, Alabama, which hasn’t had complete continuity since Lane Kiffin and Jeremy Pruitt were together in Crimson in 2015.

On the flip side, three programs have turned over all three positions: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Arkansas.

In the middle, Georgia, South Carolina, and Auburn are all breaking in new offensive coordinators, and Vanderbilt and Missouri have each swapped out two of three pieces. The Commodores retained head coach Derek Mason but replaced both coordinators, and Missouri replaced its head coach and offensive coordinator (it’s the same guy), but retained defensive coordinator Ryan Walters from Barry Odom’s staff.

LSU is a bit of a unique situation. Ed Orgeron remains, and so does offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger, but defensive coordinator Bo Pelini replaces Dave Aranda, and perhaps most importantly, passing game coordinator Joe Brady has moved on.

SEC Teams with the most roster and coaching continuity heading into 2020

So, if there’s an advantage to overall continuity heading into this weird college football season, which teams will benefit and which will suffer?

First on the list of teams that might benefit is Texas A&M. The Aggies rank first in overall returning production on the field and are one of the teams with no churn in the head coach or coordinator positions. Jimbo Fisher is back with coordinators Darryll Dickey (although co-OC Jay Graham is now at Tennessee) and Mike Elko. Plus, they return 100% of last year’s passing yards, 74% of their rushing yards, 80% of their offensive line starts, and most of their defense as well. These guys are not building something new from scratch. They had to press pause like everyone else, but all they have to do to get back up to speed is to hit the play button again.

Right behind the Aggies in this category are Kentucky and Tennessee, who both also return a ton of production, their head coaches, and both coordinators.

Teams in trouble if continuity matters more this fall include Mississippi State, LSU, and Missouri. These guys are still doing meet-and-greets and icebreakers.

Here’s a list of all of the SEC teams with their respective roster and coaching continuity data for you to analyze yourself. What do you see?

It feels like I’ve written a lot about continuity on this site over the past couple of years. I’ve looked at in-season starter continuity in the SEC, in-season offensive line continuity for the Vols, and long-term coordinator continuity for the Vols. Funny thing is, putting it under the microscope often reveals that continuity doesn’t impact a team’s performance as much as you think it should.

For instance, the two conclusions from the post about in-season starter continuity in the SEC were (1) it probably matters at the quarterback position, but (2) it didn’t seem to be nearly as important at other positions. Other factors such overall talent, player development, and coaching mattered more. And when we dove into in-season offensive line continuity for the Vols, we found (1) that it improved in 2018 over an absolute disaster in 2017, but (2) it didn’t have much of an effect on the team’s ability to gain yards or score points. Either it didn’t matter or any gains in that area were undone by other factors.

And then last September, I looked at coordinator continuity for the Vols, which was a hallmark of the program under Phillip Fulmer from 1992-2008 but became a certifiable mess for the following decade. Until his final season as head coach, Fulmer had one defensive coordinator and two offensive coordinators over the course of 16 seasons. In the following 12 seasons, the Vols’ football program hired four new head coaches, five new offensive coordinators (one of them twice at two different times), and seven new defensive coordinators.

But that didn’t really answer the question of whether coordinator churn, generally speaking, was merely a result of poor performance on the field or whether it might actually contribute to poor performance. As a Tennessee fan longing for the success the program enjoyed during most of the Fulmer Era, it felt more like a cause than an effect, but over the past couple of days, I decided to look at the same data league-wide. After cursing every SEC team’s media guide for listing its assistant coaches alphabetically instead of by year or position, I finally wrangled everything into one place so I could draw a firm conclusion as to whether coaching churn was good or bad for a team.

And now I finally have a definitive answer: It depends.

The entire data set is below for you to look at yourself, but here’s the summary:

Basically, by replacing offensive coordinators over the past seven to nine years, SEC teams have been about as likely to make things worse as they were to make things better, at least in the first year after the change. They fared a little better replacing defensive coordinators, but programs often went backward then, as well.

Okay, but what about the second year in a new coordinator’s tenure? They have to get better once they hit their stride and all the players get up to speed in the new system, right?

Not necessarily, at least as to the offense. Out of 24 instances over the last nine seasons where a new SEC offensive coordinator was around for a second year in the same position, the offenses got worse exactly the same number of times as they got better.

But that doesn’t mean there isn’t an answer to the question of whether that shiny new coach is going to make your favorite team better or worse. There is an answer. It’s just that the answer is that it depends. It depends on the guy you hired. It depends on the guy he’s replacing and how good the team has recently been at the thing you’ve hired the new guy to do. It depends on the roster and the relative health of the ecosystem into which all of this newness is introduced. It just depends.

Continuity, then, is like a garbage-in, garbage-out computer system. It only produces the results you want if the data’s good.

The good news for Vols fans is that the data looks good. All of the other factors seem to be improving, and the guys on staff have a track record of being on the positive side of the data set.

Jeremy Pruitt

Because our analysis is limited to SEC head coaches and coordinators, it doesn’t include anything worthwhile on second-year Vols’ defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley. It’s probably safe to assume, though, that Jeremy Pruitt has as much or more to do with Tennessee’s defense as does Ansley, and we do have numbers on Pruitt.

When Georgia hired Pruitt as defensive coordinator in 2014, the Bulldogs had just held opponents to 376 yards per game the prior year. Pruitt improved total defense his first season, holding opponents to 337 yards per game in 2014. He improved it again in 2015, this time holding opponents to 306 yards per game. After two seasons under Pruitt, Georgia’s defense was allowing 70 fewer yards per game than it had been before he arrived.

When Pruitt arrived at Alabama in 2016, he did the same thing even though Alabama didn’t have much room to improve. The Tide’s defense had held opponents to 276 yards per game in 2015, and in Pruitt’s first season, they held opponents to 262. He squeezed out another couple of yards in his second season, improving to 260 before taking the job at Tennessee.

Jim Chaney

Jim Chaney’s record at three different stops in the SEC during the same time frame is also one of improvement. Hired at Tennessee in 2009 by Lane Kiffin, the offense immediately improved an impressive 115 yards per game, from 269 to 384. As a holdover from Kiffin’s staff when Derek Dooley and company arrived in 2010, Chaney’s offense actually took a small step backward (20 yards per game) in his second season and then another of 31 yards in 2011, although the blame for that one probably lies at the feet of early injuries to Tyler Bray and Justin Hunter. In 2012, Chaney and his offense hit their stride and put up 476 yards per game, somehow managing to stay 5 yards ahead of Sal Sunseri’s defense. To put a bow on it, Chaney’s offense at Tennessee improved 115 yards in his first season, then went down 20 and down another 31 before going back up 143.

Hired at Arkansas in 2013, Chaney’s offense had 357 yards in his first season. His offense improved to 406 yards per game in his second season before leaving for Pittsburgh, where he turned Nathan Peterman into an NFL quarterback.

When Georgia hired Chaney in 2016, he again immediately improved the offense, this time from 377 yards per game to 385 in his first season and then again to 435 in his second season. By his third season in 2018, the offense was cranking out 465 yards per game. And then he returned to Rocky Top.

For more on Jim Chaney, check out this post, a re-publication of an article Will wrote for the magazine last year:

Jim Chaney’s offenses from 2013-18

Conclusion

Teams don’t always get better when they hire new coaches. Generally speaking, they tend to get worse as often as they get better. Whether they get better or worse depends on a variety of factors, and the guy being hired is chief among them. History shows that both Pruitt and Chaney are both guys that make things better when you hire them. They tend to improve their teams immediately and then continue to do so in their second and third years and beyond.

In case you’re interested, here’s the entire list of head coaches and coordinators for every SEC team since 2011, along with the teams’ respective total offense and total defense numbers where available from the NCAA.

Now that we’ve established why and how much returning production matters, let’s take a look at this year’s results. First up, all the kits and the caboodles:

Overall returning production

The teams with the most overall returning production are Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, and USC. Also notable toward the top of the list are Virginia Tech, Purdue, Florida State, Texas, and North Carolina.

At the bottom of the list? Utah, which is why I’m not high on Utah despite the arrival of Jake Bentley. In all, seven Utes from last year’s team were drafted. On offense, the draft losses were limited to running back Zack Moss, although his contribution last season — 1,416 yards and 15 touchdowns — constitutes a huge hole all by itself. The bigger catastrophe is on the defensive side of the ball, where three defensive linemen and three defensive backs were all drafted and another defensive back left early but didn’t get picked. Kyle Whittingham knows what he’s doing, but that right there is a chore.

Other notables toward the bottom of the list are Miami, Baylor, LSU, Mississippi State, and Michigan.

Offensive returning production

Notable teams that return a lot on offense include Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, and USC. Teams with challenges on that side of the ball include LSU, Georgia, and Utah. More on Georgia’s offensive challenges in a minute.

Defensive returning production

Teams in particularly good shape on defense include Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, USC, Florida State, and Purdue. On the flip side, Baylor, Utah, Miami, Mississippi State, and Alabama all have major holes to fill. With the way they recruit, the Tide are going to be fine, of course, but plugging those holes is on the to-do list.

What about the SEC?

Here’s how things shape up in the SEC:

Overall

Overall, A&M leads the league in returning production, followed closely by Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. This is just one of the many reasons we and so many others reaaaaally like the Aggies as a dark-horse pick for the West. It’s also why we Vols fans are still looking over our shoulders at Kentucky even though Tennessee is improving.

LSU brings up the rear with only 45%. The Tigers are basically starting over, and it’s not just because they lost Joe Burrow. Also gone are Clyde Edwards-Helaire, most of the offensive line, most of the linebackers, and Thorpe Award-winner Grant Delpit. And we haven’t even talked about the coordinators yet.

Offense

When you sort that thing by offense, Ole Miss takes the top spot by a long shot, followed by A&M and Tennessee. Lane Kiffin and the Rebels could make trouble for some folks in the West this fall.

Vanderbilt earns the distinction of returning the least amount of offensive production in the SEC, largely due to having every single one of last year’s quarterbacks either graduate or jump ship. LSU has offensive roster attrition you knew was coming.

Georgia has issues as well, most notably the early departures of quarterback Jake Fromm and running back D’Andre Swift and the loss of four starters along the offensive line to the NFL and the transfer portal. The offensive returning production for the Bulldogs is just one of the factors that I believe is going to lead to Florida overtaking them this year.

Defense

Vanderbilt wins today’s Out-Of-Balance award, as the Commodores return the most amount of defensive production to offset returning the least amount on offense. Go ‘Dores.

Right behind Vanderbilt is Georgia, a frightening prospect for a defense that finished first in the nation in both rushing and scoring defense last fall. Whatever challenges they might face on offense, the defense may be able to erase. Kentucky’s right there with the Bulldogs, returning nearly as much from a defense that finished in the Top 25 last season.

Teams with more work to do than most on that side of the ball are Mississippi State, Alabama, LSU, and Auburn. Most of those are recruiting well enough to weather the storm.

Your turn

Does anything in either of those lists jump out at you as being particularly important? Does anything in either of them not matter at all for other reasons? Tell us what you think.

In analyzing teams for our annual Gameday magazine, we take a variety of factors into account. One of the core data points is a team’s “returning production,” the idea being that experience matters. Generally speaking, any given player should be better this year than last and should be much better as a senior than he was as a freshman.

Given that, returning more production should be better for a team than returning less, at least to some degree. If all of your guys are back, your team should be bigger, better, stronger, and more experienced. Having everybody back from last year’s team by itself isn’t probative of how good a team is going to be, but it should have some bearing on how much better or worse they should be, assuming all of the other variables remained constant.

Of course, those other variables are always shifting around from year-to-year, too, and depending on how they change, they can affect projections for a team more or less than returning production. Those other factors include (1) how well the team has recruited to replace outgoing players, (2) head coaching and coordinator continuity, and (3) the team’s baseline, meaning how good the team actually was last year in competition on the field.

Returning production, then, isn’t intended to be the end of the analysis. It’s merely one factor among many, and it can itself be influenced positively or negatively by the other factors, most notably recruiting. Those other factors can’t, however, eliminate the importance of returning production altogether. For instance, a team that recruits especially well can do a better job of replacing outgoing talent than one that doesn’t, but recruiting can’t really replace experience very well at all. Experience must be earned on the field in live fire. A roster full of 5-star freshmen could overwhelm a roster full of 2-star sixth-year seniors, of course, but all else being equal, teams that are both talented and experienced should beat teams that are one but not the other.

It’s returning “production,” not returning “starts”

Also, returning production isn’t just about how many players or starters return for a team. It’s about the “production” returning to this year’s team. Our returning production analysis cares less about how many players or starters are back and more about what percentage of last year’s rushing yards, receiving yards, passing yards, tackles, sacks, tackles for loss, and pass breakups are back on the field this fall. Games played and games started are sometimes factored in, but only as a proxy for production when production is difficult to measure. For instance, offensive linemen (and to a somewhat lesser degree, defensive linemen) generally don’t have stat sheets. Whether they’re valuable to their own team is best measured by how often their coaches put them on the field.

So, when we analyze teams with an eye to the upcoming season, returning production is always one of the things we look at first. All else being equal, should we expect this team to be better or worse than it was last year? Once we have that, we then turn to the other factors to determine how much or how little it might matter.

This year’s magazine (which you can pre-order now for a mid-June delivery) includes our ranking of all of the FBS teams by offensive, defensive, and overall returning production with a spotlight on the SEC teams. We’re going to post both of those temporarily here tomorrow so that we can discuss some of the more interesting results.

1. Clemson

The 2018 National Champions nearly did it again last year but ran into a Bayou Buzzsaw wielded by Heisman Trophy-winner Joe Burrow in the 2019 championship game. Balance was the theme of the season for the Tigers with the offense putting up 529 yards per game and the defense holding opponents to only 288. The offense ranked No. 5 in the nation, and the defense ranked No. 6.

The Tigers this year aren’t so much re-loading as they are just pulling the trigger again. Three players – receiver Tee Higgins, linebacker Isaiah Simmons, and cornerback A.J. Terrell – left early for the NFL, and the offense loses four seniors along the offensive line, but most of the key components from last year’s near-national champions are back. Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and Justyn Ross will star in the offense, and most of the defensive line returns as well.

The biggest concern on the schedule is a Nov. 7 date with Notre Dame in South Bend. Expect the Tigers to roll through the ACC again this season right into the playoff.

2. Ohio State

The Buckeyes navigated the transition from Urban Meyer to Ryan Day just fine, thank you very much, following up a 13-1 season in 2018 with another one in 2019. They beat five ranked teams on their way to the College Football Playoff semifinal, where they lost a close one to Clemson. Like Clemson, Ohio State did it with balance: the nation’s No. 1 defense and No. 4 offense.

Chase Young and Jeff Okudah were both selected in the Top 3 picks of the NFL Draft, and J.K. Dobbins was picked No. 23, but there’s plenty of talent left behind. Justin Fields returns for another run at the Heisman with Master Teague III and Chris Olave in supporting roles. And the defense has talented guys ready to fill the voids left by Young and Okudah.

An early test in Eugene against the Oregon Ducks will set the tone, and they’ll have to contend with the regular minefield that is the Big 10 schedule, but the Buckeyes are positioned for the playoff again this year.

3. Alabama

Alabama missed the playoff for the first time last fall but finished the season 11-2, the two losses coming to then-No. 2 LSU in the regular season by five points and then-No. 15 Auburn by three points.

As usual, the NFL has raided Alabama’s roster. Nine players from last year’s team were drafted, four of them in the first round. But running back Najee Harris returns, and the receiving corps gets DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle back. Quarterback Mac Jones got a great deal of experience filling in for the injured Tua Tagovailoa last season, so he could take over again this fall, but he’ll also be challenged by elite prospect Bryce Young (GSEC6).

Alabama’s season kicks off with a game against Southern Cal, and the schedule also includes an early trip to Athens to take on a revenge-minded Georgia. They’ll also need to hold off SEC West opponents LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M. That’s a ton of tough games, but don’t expect more than one of them to go sideways for the Tide.

4. Oklahoma

Oklahoma’s defense improved from No. 114 in the nation in 2018 to No. 38 last year under new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. Meanwhile, Lincoln Riley’s offense just kept rolling on its way to a No. 3 national ranking, piling up 538 yards per game.

A perennial playoff participant, Oklahoma has a few additional holes to patch this fall. The offense was hardest hit with the graduation of Heisman Finalist Jalen Hurts and the early departure of receiver CeeDee Lamb to the NFL. Charleston Rambo will be ready to lead the receiving corps in the absence of Lamb, but Riley will likely have to entrust the offense to former 5-star prospect Spencer Rattler.

The defense will miss Kenneth Murray, Neville Gallimore, and Parnell Motley, but they’re in good shape and hoping to improve even more this fall under Grinch.

Assuming Riley does his thing with yet another new quarterback, expect the Sooners to contend for the national championship again this fall.

5. Florida

Florida has dramatically improved since Dan Mullen took over in 2018. After a 4-7 season in 2017, Mullen’s first team was 10-3, and they finished last season with an 11-2 record and a No. 6 national ranking. They’ve not been able to get past Georgia so far, though.

This could be the year.

Kyle Trask returns to the field for Florida this fall, and although the Gators’ offense loses receivers Van Jefferson, Freddie Swain, and Tyrie Cleveland, it returns pass-catching tight end Kyle Pitts and receiver Trevon Grimes. The defense will miss CJ Henderson, David Reese II, and Jonathan Greenard, but most other key pieces are back, including three different defensive backs with three interceptions each.

The Gators will need to improve the run game to increase their chances of jumping ahead of Georgia in the SEC East. But they were only one score apart last season, and this year they appear to be neck-and-neck. Expect the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party to decide the East this fall.

6. Georgia

Georgia’s defense was exceptional last season, but struggles on offense – and a historically good LSU team – deprived the Bulldogs of an invitation to the playoff.

This offseason, new offensive coordinator Todd Monken will have to deal with the departures of quarterback Jake Fromm, running back D’Andre Swift, and all but one starter along the offensive line. The team also has to find a replacement for Lou Groza Award-winning kicker Rodrigo Blankenship. But most of last year’s exceptional defense returns to the field this fall, including Monty Rice, Azeez Ojulari, and Richard LeCounte.

Things could prove more difficult for the Bulldogs this year with Florida nipping at their heels, Tennessee closing the gap, and Alabama rotating onto the cross-divisional schedule for a mid-September game. Depending on how those three contests go, the Bulldogs could roll right back to Atlanta for the fourth year in a row or they could end up finishing third in the SEC East.

7. Oregon

The Ducks had high hopes for the 2019 season, primarily because quarterback phenom Justin Herbert was returning along with one of the nation’s best offensive lines. Things didn’t go quite as planned. The team still finished 12-2 and ranked No. 5 in the nation, but the defense led the way.

Oregon returns a huge portion of that defense this fall, including literally everybody in the secondary, plus a couple of key linemen and linebacker Isaac Slade-Matautia, whose stat sheet looks like it’s just had Thanksgiving dinner.

The offense does need to replace Herbert and almost all of the offensive line, but the cupboard isn’t bare. CJ Verdell and Johnny Johnson III both return, as does All-American lineman Penei Sewell. And Joe Moorhead, former Mississippi State head coach and Penn State coordinator, takes the reins of the offense this fall for the Ducks.

Oregon trades last year’s game against Auburn for one against Ohio State this season. Regardless of how that one goes, the Ducks are in good shape for the Pac-12 title.

8. Penn State

It wasn’t just Ohio State that dashed the dreams of Penn State last year, it was a surprising blow from then-No. 17 Minnesota under P.J. Fleck. So when Penn State lost offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne to Old Dominion, James Franklin went out and hired Gophers’ coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca, who’d been helping Fleck row the boat since 2017.

The Nittany Lions will have to contend with some early departures, including those of do-everything KJ Hamler and Yetur Gross-Matos, but they return a healthy amount of production from last year’s team, especially on offense. Quarterback Sean Clifford will miss Hamler, but can still count on the running back stable of Journey Brown, Noah Cain, and Devyn Ford running behind an offensive line that returns 80% of its starts.

The Buckeyes are still in the way, but stealing a coordinator from an up-and-coming rival and having most of a good roster back should have the Nittany Lions positioned to make another run at them this fall.

9. Wisconsin

Three of the Badgers’ four losses last season came to Oregon in the Rose Bowl and Ohio State twice on its way to the playoff. The team was limited by a woeful passing attack that couldn’t be saved by either an excellent defense or Jonathan Taylor running for over 2,000 yards for the second year in a row.

And now, Taylor is gone, as is Quintez Cephus and nearly half of last year’s receiving yards with him. Quarterback Jack Coan is going to have his hands full piloting an offense with such huge holes to fill.

Fortunately, the defense returns largely intact despite the losses of linebackers Zack Baun and Chris Orr. That’s because nearly all of the other key pieces are back, including everyone in the secondary and everybody on the line except for one reserve.

Unless one of Wisconsin’s running backs is ready to run for 2,000 yards this fall, the most reasonable expectation for the Badgers is a season pretty similar to last year’s.

10. Texas A&M

Jimbo Fisher’s second A&M team went 8-5, but those five losses were to LSU, Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, and Auburn.

The Aggies return much of their offense this fall, led by Kellen Mond, who threw for 2,897 yards and ran for another 500, and Isaiah Spiller, who added another 946 yards on the ground. The offense loses receivers Quartney Davis and Kendrick Rogers, but a solid pass-catching corps remains, led by Jhamon Ausbon. Plus, the offensive line returns 80% of its starts from last fall.

The defense loses a more significant amount of production from last year, the biggest losses being Justin Madubuike and Debione Renfro, but has plenty of talent remaining.

Most importantly, the Aggies trade last year’s game against Georgia for one against Vanderbilt and last season’s non-conference game against Clemson for one against Colorado. They still have Alabama, LSU, and Auburn to contend with, but the road’s a lot easier this year.

11. Notre Dame

Notre Dame only lost twice in 2019, once to then-No. 3 Georgia and once to then-No. 19 Michigan. They did that with a Top 20 defense and an offense that somehow ranked in the Top 15 in points scored despite barely ranking inside the Top 50 in rushing, passing, and overall yards per game.

The offense returns quarterback Ian Book, but loses over 2,000 receiving yards with the departures of Chase Claypool, Chris Finke, and Cole Kmet.

On defense, Notre Dame must replace two draft picks in Julian Okwara and Khalid Kareem, plus Jamir Jones. The secondary will be without safety Alohi Gilman and cornerback Troy Pride Jr., but they’ve been recruiting well enough to have guys ready to step in to fill those spots.

The Fighting Irish host Clemson this fall and play Wisconsin at Lambeau Field in addition to appointments with Stanford and USC. Whether they can get past all of that and make it back to the playoff will depend largely on whether they can increase the offensive firepower.

12. Auburn

Auburn’s 9-4 record last year included losses to four ranked teams in Florida, Georgia, LSU, and Minnesota, and a win over Alabama.

New offensive coordinator Chad Morris will command an offense that returns Bo Nix and his top three targets from last season, led by receiver Seth Williams. The bad news is that they lose running back JaTarvious Whitlow and return only five out of 66 total starts along the offensive line.

There are a couple of huge holes on defense as well. Up front, they’ll miss All-American Derrick Brown and fellow lineman Marlon Davidson, and the secondary loses four players who started at least 12 games, including first-round draft pick Noah Igbinoghene.

The addition of Morris to the offense should help, but it’s tough in the ever-competitive SEC West, not to mention having Georgia as your permanent SEC East rival. If they make the most of their key games, the Tigers could finish well, but a new-look offensive line could make it difficult.

13. Texas

Tom Herman heads into 2020 with two new coordinators. On offense, it’s Mike Yurcich, most recently passing game coordinator at Ohio State, but prior to that coordinator at Oklahoma State from 2013-18. The new guy on defense is Chris Ash, who was head coach at Rutgers from 2016-19.

Texas ranks as one of the top teams in the nation in returning production, both on offense and on defense. Most importantly, Sam Ehlinger and running back Keaontay Ingram return for the offense. The receiving corps loses nearly 2,000 receiving yards with the departure of Devin Duvernay and Collin Johnson, but receiver Brennan Eagles returns to lead a still-solid unit. Joseph Ossai is back to lead the defense.

So much returning production, plus the fact that Texas is still recruiting like a national champion, could mitigate the learning curve associated with two new coordinators. They’ll need everything clicking to get past Oklahoma in the Big 12.

14. LSU

Last season was a magical one for Ed Orgeron, Joe Burrow, and the LSU Tigers. The team strung together a perfect 15-0 season capped by a decisive victory in a national championship game 90 minutes from campus.

But that was last year.

This year, only four college football teams rank lower in offensive returning production, and the Tigers’ defensive returning production isn’t much better. It’s not just Burrow, either. It’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire. It’s most of the offensive line and most of the linebackers. It’s Thorpe Award-winner Grant Delpit, and it’s both coordinators.

There is plenty of talent left on the roster to mitigate such catastrophic losses to some degree, however. Ja’Marr Chase returns to lead a still-star-studded receiving corps, and All-American defensive back Derek Stingley Jr. returns to lead a solid secondary.

But the Tigers will have a very difficult time duplicating what they did last year.

15. Oklahoma State

The Cowboys finished only 8-5 last season, but they return more overall production than anyone else except Georgia Tech.

Quarterback Spencer Sanders returns, as do five of his top six pass-catchers from last season, including Tylan Wallace. Most importantly, running back Chuba Hubbard returns as well. Hubbard ran for an eye-popping 2,094 yards and 21 touchdowns last fall.

As good as things are on the offensive side of the ball, things are even better on defense. They return nearly 90% of their starts in the secondary, all but one reserve player on the line, and the key pieces from last year’s linebacking unit, including Amen Ogbongbemiga, who had 100 tackles last season.

The Cowboys have road games at Oklahoma and Baylor ahead of them this fall, but they get Texas and Iowa State at home. With so much returning production, they could make things interesting in the Big 12 this fall.

16. Tennessee

Tennessee went from receiving death threats in October to receiving votes in the final AP Poll in January, turning a catastrophic 1-4 start into a 7-1 finish for an 8-5 season.

This fall, they’ll have the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator in consecutive years for the first time since 2014, plus an enviable amount of roster continuity to boot. On offense, the returning players include all of the quarterbacks, all of the running backs, and all of the starting offensive linemen, plus Georgia transfer Cade Mays, if he’s eligible. They do lose three pass-catchers from last fall, but Josh Palmer’s back to lead a still-talented unit. On defense, they return everybody on the line, all but one in the secondary, and all but two at linebacker.

With late-season momentum and coaching and roster continuity they haven’t had in a long time, look for Tennessee to not only maintain its lead over the second tier of the SEC East but also to make things much more interesting against Georgia and Florida this fall.

17. North Carolina

In his first year at Chapel Hill, Mack Brown led a Tar Heels team that had been 5-18 the two prior years to a 7-6 record that included a one-point loss to Clemson. The offense ended up No. 12 in the nation in total yards.

Almost all of that offense returns for Brown’s second act. His leading characters include quarterback Sam Howell, the team’s two leading rushers in Michael Carter and Javonte Williams, and seven of the team’s best pass-catchers. And the offensive line returns 50 of 65 starts.

The news is not quite as good on the defensive side of the ball. They lose two starting linemen, including fifth-round draft pick Jason Strowbridge, but they return most of the secondary and a solid linebacking corps led by Chazz Surratt and Jeremiah Gemmel.

Regardless of how an early test against a good Auburn team in the second game of the season turns out, expect further improvement from the Tar Heels this fall.

18. Southern California

Coming off an 8-5 season, USC returns the third-most overall production in the nation. On offense, all of the Trojans’ passing yards are back, as are 99% of their rushing yards, most of their receiving yards, and a majority of their offensive line starts. They also return huge percentages of last year’s productivity on defense.

Quarterback Kedon Slovis returns to command the offense after throwing for 3,502 yards and 30 touchdowns last fall. He’ll miss Michael Pittman, an early second-round draft pick who piled up 1,275 receiving yards last fall, but a still-solid group remains, led by Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyler Vaughns. And the entire herd of running backs returns looking to get on track behind an offensive line returning three starters. On defense, everybody’s back but lineman Christian Rector and ‘backer John Houston Jr.

With so much of last year’s roster returning, just getting the defense and running game going will go a long way toward getting the Trojans in the mix for the Pac-12 title.

19. Utah

Last year, the Utes won their second consecutive Pac-12 South title on the strength of the nation’s No. 2 overall defense. They were so good on that side of the ball that the NFL came and stole it all.

In all, six defensive players were drafted and another left early but wasn’t picked. The losses include Bradlee Anae, Leki Fotu, John Penisini, Jaylon Johnson, Terrell Burgess, Julian Blackmon, and Javelin K. Guidry. That pretty much leaves Mika Tafua and Davin Lloyd to lead an entirely new unit.

The offense didn’t escape the raid, either, as running back Zack Moss was drafted as well. And what the NFL didn’t get, graduation did, as quarterback Tyler Huntley is out of eligibility. He’ll be replaced by either Cameron Rising, who transferred from Texas in 2018, or Jake Bentley, a graduate transfer who started 33 games at South Carolina.

That’s a lot of roster attrition to overcome, but Kyle Whittingham didn’t just luck into seven draft picks. He made it happen, and he’s probably cycling up to do it again.

20. Minnesota

Minnesota merrily rowed all the way to an 11-2 record last fall, losing only to Top 15 teams Iowa and Wisconsin and beating Auburn in the Outback Bowl. The defense was special – ranking No. 10 in the nation – and the offense was good enough to get them to a first-place finish in the Big 10 West and a No. 10 ranking in the final AP Poll.

Now the Gophers have to figure out how to do it after losing a significant amount of production, especially on defense. Four players on that side of the ball were drafted, including All-American defensive back Antoine Winfield Jr.

The offense loses receiver Tyler Johnson and running back Rodney Smith, but returns quarterback Tanner Morgan, receiver Rashod Bateman, and all of the offensive linemen.

The schedule doesn’t seem too daunting for the Gophers. They travel to Madison to take on Wisconsin, but get Michigan and Iowa at home. If they can shore up the losses, particularly on defense, they could do as well or better than last year.

21. Michigan

With rival Ohio State breaking in a new coach and the Wolverines returning most of their key pieces last year, Michigan looked ready to take control of the Big 10. They only lost four games, and all of them to ranked teams, but the missed opportunity had to sting.

And now, the window of opportunity looks to be closing again, as Michigan returns very little production from either the offense or the defense this fall. Shea Patterson has graduated, and ten players were drafted, three of whom left early.

Joe Milton and Dylan McCaffrey will battle to replace Patterson at quarterback. Whoever wins will have help from running backs Zach Charbonnet and Hassan Haskins and receivers Ronnie Bell and Nico Collins. Linebacker Cameron McGrone and defensive back Ambry Thomas will have the responsibility of getting the defense ready.

The Wolverines will have their opportunities again this season against Ohio State and others. They just need to take advantage of them.

22. Cincinnati

Cincinnati’s 11-3 record in 2019 included two losses to conference rival Memphis and a non-conference loss to Ohio State. The Bearcats’ offense wasn’t really up to the task, but a Top 40 defense helped them achieve a No. 21 ranking in the final AP Poll.

This year, the defense loses linebackers Bryan Wright and Perry Young, but gets all of its starters on the defensive line and most of its key guys in the secondary back.

The offense will be looking for improvement, and returns three key pieces to try to make that happen. Quarterback Desmond Ridder had 2,164 yards and 18 touchdowns passing and 650 yards and 5 touchdowns rushing last year. He’ll have his leading receiver Alec Pierce back with him as well this fall. They’ll miss 1,000-yard rusher Michael Warren II, but Gerrid Doaks looks to pick up the slack.

The Bearcats travel to UCF this fall but get both Memphis and Houston at home. If the offense can find a groove, they’ll have a shot at revenge with Memphis this fall.

23. Kentucky

Kentucky posted an 8-5 record without a true quarterback last season. This year, Terry Wilson returns, but he may have to fight off Auburn transfer Joey Gatewood to win back the job. Whoever lines up under center will have nearly 2,000 yards of returning rushing yards to lean on and 80% of the offensive line back. The team’s Top 25 defense loses a key piece at each level but remains a mostly solid group. If they get things worked out in the passing game, they could make some noise in the SEC East.

24. Boise State

Bryan Harsin and the Broncos are poised to make it three out of the last four Mountain West titles thanks largely to the return of quarterback Hank Bachmeier and 1,000-yard rusher George Holani, both of whom earned their stripes as freshmen last year. The team does have significant concerns along the line of scrimmage, however, as most of the starters on both sides have departed, including edge rusher Curtis Weaver. Boise State will get a chance to shine when Florida State comes to town the third week of the season.

25. UCF

UCF looks to get back to the top of the American Athletic after finishing second to Cincinnati last fall. This year, the nation’s No. 2 offense returns quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who threw for 3,653 yards and 29 touchdowns as a freshman last season. McKenzie Milton, who missed all of last season with a serious leg injury, may be ready to compete for the position again as well. Eight starters return on defense, including most of the secondary. Hosting Cincinnati late may decide the season for the Knights.

Gameday on Rocky Top 2020 should hit the newsstands all over the state of Tennessee (and select locations in neighboring states) somewhere in the back half of June. Hey, that’s an astounding degree of precision in these uncertain times.

As a Gameday on Rocky Top reader, you can get it before then, because we get our copies at the same time the distributor gets theirs, and we can get copies in the mail the next day while the distributor needs another week to get them into the stores.

And when you order directly from us, you don’t have to wear a mask. 🙂

So, pre-order our Gameday on Rocky Top 2020 college football preseason magazine online, and we’ll ship it to you the day after we receive it, which we expect to be somewhere around Wednesday, June 17.

With all of the uncertainty this year, we are printing fewer copies, so while the magazine is going to be on the newsstands in Tennessee and in limited areas in neighboring states, it could be a teensy bit more difficult to find this summer. So, skip the scavenger hunt and the face mask and reserve your copy now.

Why should I get this magazine?

As always, our Gameday magazine is More of Your Favorite Team and No Ads. We narrow our focus and go deeper on the teams you care most about and intentionally avoid adding content you’re probably not going to read. In Gameday on Rocky Top, for instance, we have 48 pages of content devoted exclusively to the 2020 Tennessee Volunteers, and the other 64 pages focus on the Vols’ 2020 opponents, along with their competition in the SEC and the national Top 25. We want you to be interested in every page of our publication from cover to cover.

Also, if you’re looking for good and solid reasons to believe in the Vols this season, this is for you. The longer we wrote, the more these things magnified our optimism for the season:

• Continuity always matters, but it probably matters even more this year with the offseason cut short. Tennessee has more roster and coordinator continuity this year than it has since 2014.
• History shows that an offense explodes in Jim Chaney’s second year at the controls. This is Jim Chaney’s second year at the controls.
• If Cade Mays is eligible, Tennessee will return 108% of its offensive line starts from last year. 🙂 The defensive line also improved dramatically last year. A team is better when it is good in the trenches.

That’s just a taste of why we’re even more optimistic than usual about the Vols this season.

How can I get the magazine?

Here are the ways you can get a copy:

• Order a physical copy online for $12.99 plus tax and shipping, and get it a week before it hits the newsstands.
• Pick up a physical copy in your grocery or drug store for $12.99 plus tax when it hits the newsstands in late June.

We also plan to offer this year’s edition electronically at a lower price point through some combination of downloadable PDF, mobi, epub, and/or online membership. We hope to have more details on that early next week, so if you’re interested in an electronic version, stay tuned.

Go Vols.