With the way that Tennessee played against lowly UMass and the way that Georgia absolutely rose to the challenge against a good Mississippi State team, it was probably inevitable that some would conclude that the Georgia Bulldogs would be overwhelming favorites over the Tennessee Volunteers this week. Even I significantly downgraded our chances earlier this week.

So, I was surprised to learn on Monday that Georgia was only a 7.5-point favorite in the game, but I had to take note because, hey, who knows more about hangovers than Vegas, right? And then I checked ESPN’s FPI and found that Georgia had only a 69.5% chance to win. What about S&P+, what did it have to say? Georgia, 63%, with a projected score of 29.7 to 24. That’s a picture of a clear favorite, of course, but it’s certainly not overwhelming.

Let’s take a closer look at Georgia and the relative stats of the two teams to see if any of that actually makes sense.

Georgia’s schedule

Georgia (4-0, 1-0 SEC, #7)

• W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
• W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
• W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
• W4: Easily handled #17 Mississippi State, 31-3.
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: At Vanderbilt
• W7: Missouri
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs. #22 Florida
• W10: South Carolina
• W11: At #13 Auburn
• W12: Kentucky
• W13: At Georgia Tech

That schedule to date is ranked as the nation’s 10th most difficult. For comparison’s sake, Tennessee’s schedule is ranked 107th. Keep that in mind as we look at the stats.

But really, the Bulldogs’ resume only consists of a one-point victory over a barely-ranked team (like the Vols were recently), and one solid thumping of a team we think is probably pretty good, although we don’t know yet for sure because its reputation was built on beating LSU, another team many have have been very wrong about.

Statsy Preview Calculator

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 156.5 rushing yards per game, but Georgia is giving up only 97.5 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as Georgia, is Georgia Tech, which is giving up only 100.3 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 148 against them. Georgia does feature the best run defense the Vols have seen so far this year, but that Yellow Jackets number is pretty close to what the Bulldogs are doing. Based on all of that, I’m going to guess that Tennessee gets only slightly less than its average on the ground and nets 150.

Georgia rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 242.3 rushing yards per game, a number that is perhaps inflated to a degree due to playing Georgia Tech’s flexbone in the first game of the season. The Bulldogs run game is averaging 223.3 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Indiana State, but it’s not really close enough to tell us much as they’re averaging only 129.7 yards per game on the ground. The Sycamores got 122 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is also not particularly helpful as that team is Georgia Tech, which is averaging 393.7 rushing yards per game and got 535 against Tennessee. I’m going to guess that Georgia will get more than their average against Tennessee, but it won’t be as bad as it was against the Yellow Jackets. I’m going with 300 rushing yards for Georgia against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 224.8 passing yards per game, and Georgia is allowing 172.0. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UMass, which is giving up 218.4 yards per game through the air. The Vols put up 184 against them in a listless effort. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech. They’re allowing 164.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 221 against them. I’m going to say that Tennessee will put up around 200 passing yards this weekend.

Georgia passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 140.5 passing yards per game. As good as the new quarterbacks have looked, Georgia’s only averaging 166 passing yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is once again Georgia Tech, which is getting 93.3 yards per game through the air, and they got more than their average against Tennessee with 120. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 200.7 passing yards per game and got 212 against Tennessee. I’m going with Georgia putting up their average of about 170 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 30.3 points per game, but that number is somewhat inflated by a double overtime game during which they scored an extra 14 points in extra periods. Georgia is allowing only 11.5 points per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech, which is allowing 23.0 points per game, and Tennessee got 28 against them in regulation. This will be toughest scoring defense the Vols have faced this season. Taking all of that together, I’m going to say that the Vols score somewhere around 24 points against Georgia.

Georgia scoring

Tennessee is allowing 21.8 points per game, and Georgia is averaging 31. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 23.7 points, and they got 26 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech, which is averaging 37.7 points and got 28 in regulation against Tennessee. I’m going with Georgia putting up about 31 points against Tennessee.

SUMMARY

• Tennessee rushing yards: 150
• Georgia rushing yards: 300
• Tennessee passing yards: 200
• Georgia passing yards: 170
• Tennessee points: 24
• Georgia points: 31

Current betting lines

The result that the statsy preview calculator spit out looks a lot like the current spread, which is 7.5 for this game with an over/under of 47.5. So maybe that is about right, and maybe the game figures to be much closer than most think.

What does Georgia do especially well and not especially well?

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. From the stats, it would appear that Georgia is a run-first offense that likes to take a chance downfield in the passing game every once in a while. When they complete a pass, it’s generally a long one, but their completion percentage and overall passing offense isn’t really very good. They’re really not very good on first down or at putting points on the board, either. But make no mistake, everything keys off Georgia’s run game, which is so good that it forces you to over-commit to stopping it so that you can no longer defend even a below-average passing attack. And remember, Tennessee’s defense hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, so Georgia may not have to be very good on offense to have a good day. But if they can strike the right balance between mitigating the damage in the running game without also giving up an occasional deep pass, they could do well.

Defensive observations. It may come as a bit of a surprise when you think about Nick Chubb and three other guys just like him, but the strength of the Bulldogs’ team actually appears to be its defense. They are good across the board, except that they don’t do an especially good job at generating sacks or tackles for loss. Other than that, they are quite strong — against the run, against the pass, on every down — and they’re especially good at keeping opponents out of the end zone. Tennessee’s offense is in for a challenging day against this group.

Special teams observations. Don’t expect much in the punt return game from either team Saturday. The Vols do appear to have an advantage in the kick return game, but kicker Rodrigo Blankenship has put 19 of 24 kickoffs into the end zone so far this season, so the Vols’ may not even be able to get off the ground there. And Georgia’s pretty good at kick returns, too.

Turnovers and Penalties observations.
Georgia does not appear to be especially well-disciplined from a penalties perspective, so perhaps there are some hidden yards to be had there.

Players to Watch

Offense

Quarterback Jacob Eason was only 1-of-3 before leaving the first game due to injury and being replaced by true freshman Jake Fromm. Fromm, though, has done well, going 43-of-69 with seven touchdowns and one interception.

The leading receiver on the team so far is junior Terry Godwin, who’s caught eight passes for 214 yards and four touchdowns. Senior receiver Javon Wims also has eight catches, and sophomore receiver Mecole Hardman has seven. Running back D’Andre Swift has six receptions, and tight end Isaac Nauta has four.

What makes this team go, though, is the running game. Senior Nick Chubb is leading the way with 59 carries for 371 yards, but three other backs have at least 20 carries as well. Senior Sony Michel has 36 for 192 yards, Swift has 27 for 196, and sophomore Brian Herrien has another 24 for 77 yards.

Defense

Junior defensive lineman Trenton Thompson has three solo tackles for loss and 12 tackles so far this season. The team’s current sack leader is senior linebacker Lorenzo Carter, who has three. And the most active defensive backs are junior Deandre Baker (five passes defended, four pass breakups, and an interception) and senior Dominick Sanders (three passes defended, two pass breakups, and an interception).

Back in July, we posted the Vols entire depth chart by class and included each player’s talent rankings, using their 247 Sports Composite numbers. Some of that has changed already, of course, as injuries and on-field performance so far this season has resulted in different guys starting.

Just for kicks, I wanted to see what the Vols’ current projected depth chart for the Georgia game looks like and how it compares to Georgia’s. Here are those results (click here for full page):

The color codes are based on the range of 247 Composite numbers on the list. The range starts with deep green at the top and ends with deep red at the bottom. Georgia defensive tackle Trenton Thompson is the highest-rated player on either team with a rating of .9991.

Note that the star ratings and 247 Composite numbers are from the players’ recruiting profiles and are not necessarily indicative of how valuable they currently are to their respective teams. Some lower-ranked guys are doing better than their rankings, and some guys with really high rankings have yet to live up to expectations.

With those disclaimers, though, here are a few observations:

• Both teams are starting one player who never even got a ranking. Tennessee linebacker Colton Jumper and Georgia fullback Christian Payne have become key members of their teams despite not having the accolades of team members coming out of high school.
• Team breakdowns: Tennessee’s current starting lineup includes 9 3-stars, 11 4-stars, and 2 5-stars. Georgia’s includes 5 3-stars, 12 4-stars, and 4 5-stars.
• Georgia’s highest-ranked players are junior defensive tackle Trenton Thompson, senior linebacker Lorenzo Carter, senior running back Nick Chubb, and sophomore receiver Mecole Hardman.
• As talented as Tennessee has become, Georgia appears to out-talent the Vols in every unit, with the exception of Vols wide receivers vs. the Bulldogs secondary. And although that’s what the numbers say, it’s probably not actually true.
• Georgia’s front 7 on defense looks scary good.

Here’s our weekly update of the Vols’ statistical rankings, after the Florida game.

Offensive observations: Okay, so the offense is doing a good job of not letting the quarterback get sacked. Not so good on preventing TFLs, though, and honestly, needs work in most areas. These stats are compiled against two good teams and two not so good teams, so it’s a pretty good set of data, I think. They need work in the red zone, in the passing game, and, surprisingly, in the running game as well. Lots of stuff to work on here.

Defensive observations: The secondary seems to be doing an admirable job in not getting torched in the passing game, that last play against Florida notwithstanding. They’re also okay on fourth downs, at sacks and TFLs, and in preventing the other team from putting points on the board.

They need work everywhere else, though. That Georgia Tech games is still skewing the defensive stats a bit, but that’s not the only explanation.

Special Teams observations: Alright. Not broke, except for coverage of kickoff returns. They can improve coverage on punt returns, too.

Turnovers and Penalties observations: Also, not bad. The team needs to focus primarily on getting better on both offense and defense.

Player Rankings

Man, are we fortunate to have John Kelly on this team. And Trevor Daniel. It does appear that making it more of a point to get Marquez Callaway the ball would be a good thing for the offense, as well.

Any other week, the results we saw from other teams would have provided some pretty good news for Vols fans interested in how the rest of the games on the schedule are shaping up, but a lackluster performance by the Vols against UMass undoes almost all of that and negatively impacts our win probability expectations downward across the board.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Basically, the entire thing shifted into more difficult territory than it had been last week. That can change after a better showing this week against Georgia, but man, that 17-13 win at a game I had slotted at the 99% line sure is making me nervous.

The Vols after UMass

Tennessee was roughly a 28-point favorite over UMass this past Saturday, an 0-4 team that had not even played anyone of merit so far, but barely eked out a 17-13 lethargic win. It was almost certainly a hangover game, one where the team was still reeling from that stomach-churning loss to hated rival Florida, looking ahead to a big game against Georgia the following week, and thinking that it could sleepwalk through the current week to a win over UMass. But you can’t ignore that it happened, either, and let’s face it: This past Saturday, the Vols looked like they could lose to almost anyone.

Adding that to the season’s other data points — a defense that got rolled by Georgia Tech until the final play, an only-decent game against Indiana State, a loss that shouldn’t have been against Florida — and you likely don’t have a lot of confidence in the Vols at this point in the season. It’s not that the team couldn’t gain its footing and look good the rest of the way; they absolutely could. But we don’t have any real evidence yet to suggest that they will.

For those reasons, I feel significantly less confident in the Vols’ prospects the rest of the season. I’m still hopeful they can get it turned around, but confidence in them actually doing it has taken a hit.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (2-1, 1-0 ACC, NR)

• W1: Lost to Tennessee 42-41 in double overtime.
• W2: Beat Jacksonville State, 37-10.
• W3: At UCF (canceled)
• W4: Beat Pitt, 35-17.
• W5: North Carolina
• W6: Bye
• W7: At #17 Miami
• W8: Wake Forest
• W9: At #3 Clemson
• W10: At Virginia
• W11: #16 Virginia Tech
• W12: At Duke
• W13: #13 Georgia

KirVonte Benson ran for 196 yards and two touchdowns, and TaQuon Marshall added 112 yards and another two touchdowns as the Yellow Jackets overwhelmed Pitt. Georgia Tech now has the nation’s best rushing offense, averaging 393.7 yards per game. That average is something to watch, as it’s definitely aided by the 535 Tennessee gave them, which looked more like the Vols’ problem than GT’s strength when Jacksonville State allowed only 210. But GT also got 436 against Pitt. We’ll see how they do this week against North Carolina and then Miami the following week.

Indiana State (0-3, 0-0 MVFC, NR)

• W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
• W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
• W3: Lost to Liberty, 42-41 on a blocked 23-yard field goal attempt as time expired.
• W4: Bye
• W5: At Illinois State
• W6: North Dakota State
• W7: At South Dakota
• W8: S Illinois
• W9: At Missouri State
• W10: Youngstown State
• W11: W Illinois
• W12: At Northern Iowa

Florida (2-1, 2-0 SEC, #24)

• W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
• W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
• W3: Beat #25 Tennessee, 26-20.
• W4: Beat Kentucky, 28-27.
• W5: Vanderbilt
• W6: #12 LSU
• W7: Texas A&M
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs #15 Georgia
• W10: At Missouri
• W11: At South Carolina
• W12: UAB
• W13: #10 Florida State

As bad as Tennessee fans felt after the Vols gifted their game to Florida, Kentucky fans must feel even worse after blowing their chance at finally throwing off 30 years of futility. The Wildcats had the Gators beat 27-21 with less than a minute to play, but they not only left a receiver completely uncovered inside the 10-yard line, his defender was actually running off the field. Kentucky still had a chance after that but then committed a holding penalty while in field goal range on the last play before having to kick a field goal, which ended up being a 56-yard attempt that was just short. And now Florida is 2-0 in SEC games their opponents should have won and, consequently, 2-0 in the SEC. Credit to those guys for somehow getting it done in both of those games, but Jim McElwain has looked after each of the past two games like he feels almost guilty for winning each of them.

9/23/17: UMass (0-5, 0-0 IND, NR)

• W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
• W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
• W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
• W4: Lost to Temple, 29-21.
• W5: Lost to Tennessee, 17-13.
• W6: Ohio
• W7: Bye
• W8: At #21 USF
• W9: Ga Southern
• W10: Appalachian State
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Maine
• W13: At BYU

We’ve been over this. Apparently, the game was even unworthy of a recap from ESPN. Sounds about right.

The Vols’ future opponents

9/30/17: Georgia (4-0, 1-0 SEC, #7)

• W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
• W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
• W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
• W4: Easily handled #17 Mississippi State, 31-3.
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: At Vanderbilt
• W7: Missouri
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs. #22 Florida
• W10: South Carolina
• W11: At #13 Auburn
• W12: Kentucky
• W13: At Georgia Tech

Expectations for a Vols win: Honestly, these guys looked good. Like maybe-they-could-compete-with-Alabama good. Not good news for a Vols team that struggled mightily against UMass. I had this game at 45% to begin the season, and I lowered it to 40% since then. After what happened with them and with the Vols this past weekend, I’m moving it all the way down to 20%. I don’t feel good about it at all. Maybe they’ll mismanage the quarterback situation with Jacob Eason getting healthy again, but other than that, I don’t see any vulnerability here.

PREDICTIONS – GEORGIA

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

45

45

40

40

20

10/14/17: South Carolina (3-1, 1-1 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
• W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
• W4: Beat LA Tech, 17-16.
• W5: At Texas A&M
• W6: Arkansas
• W7: At #25 Tennessee
• W8: Bye
• W9: Vanderbilt
• W10: At #15 Georgia
• W11: #22 Florida
• W12: Wofford
• W13: #3 Clemson

Expectations for a Vols win: Not only did South Carolina only barely beat Louisiana Tech, they needed two huge plays with time winding down and a 31-yard field goal with seven seconds left from a kicker who’d missed his last four to get the win. This is a different team without Deebo Samuel. I moved the game to 75% last week. I’d increase that even more if Tennessee didn’t also lay an egg in a win. As it is, I’m keeping it at 75%.

PREDICTIONS – SOUTH CAROLINA

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

69

69

60

75

75

10/21/17: Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC, #1)

• W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
• W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
• W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
• W4: Beat Vanderbilt, 59-0.
• W5: Ole Miss
• W6: At Texas A&M
• W7: Arkansas
• W8: #25 Tennessee
• W9: Bye
• W10: #12 LSU
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Mercer
• W13: At #13 Auburn

Expectations for a Vols win: Nick Saban reportedly asked his guys to prove that they knew how to dominate an opponent for a full 60 minutes prior to playing this game. I think they passed. I’ve had the Tennessee-Vandy game at 10% all season, but now I’m changing it to 5%, which is practically never-never land for me, a place I don’t generally spend much time. I don’t like it there; it’s grey and dreary and all they have to eat is plain white toast. I hope to escape next week.

PREDICTIONS – ALABAMA

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

10

10

10

10

5

10/28/17: Kentucky (3-1, 1-1 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
• W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
• W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
• W4: Lost to #20 Florida, 28-27.
• W5: E Michigan
• W6: Missouri
• W7: Bye
• W8: At Mississippi State
• W9: #25 Tennessee
• W10: Ole Miss
• W11: At Vanderbilt
• W12: At #15 Georgia
• W13: #17 Lousiville

Expectations for a Vols win: See the game recap from the Florida section above. On one hand, the Wildcats nearly beat Florida, so they’re looking good enough to beat Tennessee, sure. On the other hand, they appear to have that problem of getting over mental hurdles against certain teams (we can relate), and fortunately, that problem tends to manifest itself against the Vols, too, that Dooley game I’ve repressed notwithstanding. I’m wavering, but I’m going to move this game from 65% to 55%.

PREDICTIONS – KENTUCKY

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

65

65

70

65

55

11/4/17: Southern Miss (2-1, 0-0 C-USA, NR)

• W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
• W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
• W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
• W4: Bye
• W5: North Texas
• W6: UTSA
• W7: UTEP
• W8: At LA Tech
• W9: UAB
• W10: At #25 Tennessee
• W11: At Rice
• W12: Charlotte
• W13: At Marshall

Expectations for a Vols win: Southern Miss didn’t play this week, but the Vols did. I had this game at 80% last week, and this week I’m moving it to 70%.

PREDICTIONS – SOUTHERN MISS

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

90

85

80

80

70

11/11/17: Missouri (1-3, 0-2 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
• W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
• W4: Lost to #15 Auburn, 51-14.
• W5: Bye
• W6: At Kentucky
• W7: At #15 Georgia
• W8: Idaho
• W9: At UConn
• W10: #22 Florida
• W11: #25 Tennessee
• W12: At Vanderbilt
• W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: If there’s one team that sort of out-did Tennessee this week in the egg-laying department, it’s Missouri. I’m going to call that a push and leave the game right where it is at 70%.

PREDICTIONS – MISSOURI

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

70

65

70

70

70

11/18/17: LSU (3-1, 0-1 SEC, #25)

• W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
• W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
• W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
• W4: Beat Syracuse, 35-26.
• W5: Troy
• W6: At #22 Florida
• W7: #13 Auburn
• W8: At Ole Miss
• W9: Bye
• W10: At #1 Alabama
• W11: Arkansas
• W12: At #25 Tennessee
• W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: Any other week, LSU looking bad against Syracuse would have been cause to make a significant adjustment. Not this week. Keeping the game at 45%.

PREDICTIONS – LSU

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

25

25

25

45

45

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (3-1, 0-1 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
• W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
• W3: Beat #19 Kansas State, 14-7.
• W4: Lost to #1 Alabama, 59-0.
• W5: At #22 Florida
• W6: #15 Georgia
• W7: At Ole Miss
• W8: Bye
• W9: At South Carolina
• W10: W Kentucky
• W11: Kentucky
• W12: Missouri
• W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: Vanderbilt, I feel your pain. No matter how much progress you’ve made, it’s sometimes difficult to see when playing in the SEC. Losing 59-0 to an Alabama team that Nick Saban remembered to say “Sic ‘Em” to does not mean that you’re not much better than you have been the past few seasons. I’m going to keep this one at 55% for now.

PREDICTIONS – VANDERBILT

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

72

72

65

55

55

All of that puts me at 6.95 wins, down from 7.39 last week. I still have 8 wins if you just count games I had to pick straight up. It’s just that I don’t feel as good about most of them.

Community Expectations

As of Sunday evening at 8:30, here’s where the GRT community stands on all of the above: