Any other week, the results we saw from other teams would have provided some pretty good news for Vols fans interested in how the rest of the games on the schedule are shaping up, but a lackluster performance by the Vols against UMass undoes almost all of that and negatively impacts our win probability expectations downward across the board.
Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:
Basically, the entire thing shifted into more difficult territory than it had been last week. That can change after a better showing this week against Georgia, but man, that 17-13 win at a game I had slotted at the 99% line sure is making me nervous.
The Vols after UMass
Tennessee was roughly a 28-point favorite over UMass this past Saturday, an 0-4 team that had not even played anyone of merit so far, but barely eked out a 17-13 lethargic win. It was almost certainly a hangover game, one where the team was still reeling from that stomach-churning loss to hated rival Florida, looking ahead to a big game against Georgia the following week, and thinking that it could sleepwalk through the current week to a win over UMass. But you can’t ignore that it happened, either, and let’s face it: This past Saturday, the Vols looked like they could lose to almost anyone.
Adding that to the season’s other data points — a defense that got rolled by Georgia Tech until the final play, an only-decent game against Indiana State, a loss that shouldn’t have been against Florida — and you likely don’t have a lot of confidence in the Vols at this point in the season. It’s not that the team couldn’t gain its footing and look good the rest of the way; they absolutely could. But we don’t have any real evidence yet to suggest that they will.
For those reasons, I feel significantly less confident in the Vols’ prospects the rest of the season. I’m still hopeful they can get it turned around, but confidence in them actually doing it has taken a hit.
The Vols’ past opponents
Georgia Tech (2-1, 1-0 ACC, NR)
- W1: Lost to Tennessee 42-41 in double overtime.
- W2: Beat Jacksonville State, 37-10.
- W3: At UCF (canceled)
- W4: Beat Pitt, 35-17.
- W5: North Carolina
- W6: Bye
- W7: At #17 Miami
- W8: Wake Forest
- W9: At #3 Clemson
- W10: At Virginia
- W11: #16 Virginia Tech
- W12: At Duke
- W13: #13 Georgia
KirVonte Benson ran for 196 yards and two touchdowns, and TaQuon Marshall added 112 yards and another two touchdowns as the Yellow Jackets overwhelmed Pitt. Georgia Tech now has the nation’s best rushing offense, averaging 393.7 yards per game. That average is something to watch, as it’s definitely aided by the 535 Tennessee gave them, which looked more like the Vols’ problem than GT’s strength when Jacksonville State allowed only 210. But GT also got 436 against Pitt. We’ll see how they do this week against North Carolina and then Miami the following week.
Indiana State (0-3, 0-0 MVFC, NR)
- W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
- W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
- W3: Lost to Liberty, 42-41 on a blocked 23-yard field goal attempt as time expired.
- W4: Bye
- W5: At Illinois State
- W6: North Dakota State
- W7: At South Dakota
- W8: S Illinois
- W9: At Missouri State
- W10: Youngstown State
- W11: W Illinois
- W12: At Northern Iowa
Florida (2-1, 2-0 SEC, #24)
- W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
- W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
- W3: Beat #25 Tennessee, 26-20.
- W4: Beat Kentucky, 28-27.
- W5: Vanderbilt
- W6: #12 LSU
- W7: Texas A&M
- W8: Bye
- W9: vs #15 Georgia
- W10: At Missouri
- W11: At South Carolina
- W12: UAB
- W13: #10 Florida State
As bad as Tennessee fans felt after the Vols gifted their game to Florida, Kentucky fans must feel even worse after blowing their chance at finally throwing off 30 years of futility. The Wildcats had the Gators beat 27-21 with less than a minute to play, but they not only left a receiver completely uncovered inside the 10-yard line, his defender was actually running off the field. Kentucky still had a chance after that but then committed a holding penalty while in field goal range on the last play before having to kick a field goal, which ended up being a 56-yard attempt that was just short. And now Florida is 2-0 in SEC games their opponents should have won and, consequently, 2-0 in the SEC. Credit to those guys for somehow getting it done in both of those games, but Jim McElwain has looked after each of the past two games like he feels almost guilty for winning each of them.
9/23/17: UMass (0-5, 0-0 IND, NR)
- W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
- W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
- W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
- W4: Lost to Temple, 29-21.
- W5: Lost to Tennessee, 17-13.
- W6: Ohio
- W7: Bye
- W8: At #21 USF
- W9: Ga Southern
- W10: Appalachian State
- W11: At Mississippi State
- W12: Maine
- W13: At BYU
We’ve been over this. Apparently, the game was even unworthy of a recap from ESPN. Sounds about right.
The Vols’ future opponents
9/30/17: Georgia (4-0, 1-0 SEC, #7)
- W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
- W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
- W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
- W4: Easily handled #17 Mississippi State, 31-3.
- W5: At #25 Tennessee
- W6: At Vanderbilt
- W7: Missouri
- W8: Bye
- W9: vs. #22 Florida
- W10: South Carolina
- W11: At #13 Auburn
- W12: Kentucky
- W13: At Georgia Tech
Expectations for a Vols win: Honestly, these guys looked good. Like maybe-they-could-compete-with-Alabama good. Not good news for a Vols team that struggled mightily against UMass. I had this game at 45% to begin the season, and I lowered it to 40% since then. After what happened with them and with the Vols this past weekend, I’m moving it all the way down to 20%. I don’t feel good about it at all. Maybe they’ll mismanage the quarterback situation with Jacob Eason getting healthy again, but other than that, I don’t see any vulnerability here.
| PREDICTIONS – GEORGIA | ||||||||||||
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
| 45 | 45 | 40 | 40 | 20 | ||||||||
10/14/17: South Carolina (3-1, 1-1 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
- W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
- W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
- W4: Beat LA Tech, 17-16.
- W5: At Texas A&M
- W6: Arkansas
- W7: At #25 Tennessee
- W8: Bye
- W9: Vanderbilt
- W10: At #15 Georgia
- W11: #22 Florida
- W12: Wofford
- W13: #3 Clemson
Expectations for a Vols win: Not only did South Carolina only barely beat Louisiana Tech, they needed two huge plays with time winding down and a 31-yard field goal with seven seconds left from a kicker who’d missed his last four to get the win. This is a different team without Deebo Samuel. I moved the game to 75% last week. I’d increase that even more if Tennessee didn’t also lay an egg in a win. As it is, I’m keeping it at 75%.
| PREDICTIONS – SOUTH CAROLINA | ||||||||||||
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
| 69 | 69 | 60 | 75 | 75 | ||||||||
10/21/17: Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC, #1)
- W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
- W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
- W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
- W4: Beat Vanderbilt, 59-0.
- W5: Ole Miss
- W6: At Texas A&M
- W7: Arkansas
- W8: #25 Tennessee
- W9: Bye
- W10: #12 LSU
- W11: At Mississippi State
- W12: Mercer
- W13: At #13 Auburn
Expectations for a Vols win: Nick Saban reportedly asked his guys to prove that they knew how to dominate an opponent for a full 60 minutes prior to playing this game. I think they passed. I’ve had the Tennessee-Vandy game at 10% all season, but now I’m changing it to 5%, which is practically never-never land for me, a place I don’t generally spend much time. I don’t like it there; it’s grey and dreary and all they have to eat is plain white toast. I hope to escape next week.
| PREDICTIONS – ALABAMA | ||||||||||||
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
| 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 5 | ||||||||
10/28/17: Kentucky (3-1, 1-1 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
- W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
- W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
- W4: Lost to #20 Florida, 28-27.
- W5: E Michigan
- W6: Missouri
- W7: Bye
- W8: At Mississippi State
- W9: #25 Tennessee
- W10: Ole Miss
- W11: At Vanderbilt
- W12: At #15 Georgia
- W13: #17 Lousiville
Expectations for a Vols win: See the game recap from the Florida section above. On one hand, the Wildcats nearly beat Florida, so they’re looking good enough to beat Tennessee, sure. On the other hand, they appear to have that problem of getting over mental hurdles against certain teams (we can relate), and fortunately, that problem tends to manifest itself against the Vols, too, that Dooley game I’ve repressed notwithstanding. I’m wavering, but I’m going to move this game from 65% to 55%.
| PREDICTIONS – KENTUCKY | ||||||||||||
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
| 65 | 65 | 70 | 65 | 55 | ||||||||
11/4/17: Southern Miss (2-1, 0-0 C-USA, NR)
- W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
- W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
- W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
- W4: Bye
- W5: North Texas
- W6: UTSA
- W7: UTEP
- W8: At LA Tech
- W9: UAB
- W10: At #25 Tennessee
- W11: At Rice
- W12: Charlotte
- W13: At Marshall
Expectations for a Vols win: Southern Miss didn’t play this week, but the Vols did. I had this game at 80% last week, and this week I’m moving it to 70%.
| PREDICTIONS – SOUTHERN MISS | ||||||||||||
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
| 90 | 85 | 80 | 80 | 70 | ||||||||
11/11/17: Missouri (1-3, 0-2 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
- W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
- W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
- W4: Lost to #15 Auburn, 51-14.
- W5: Bye
- W6: At Kentucky
- W7: At #15 Georgia
- W8: Idaho
- W9: At UConn
- W10: #22 Florida
- W11: #25 Tennessee
- W12: At Vanderbilt
- W13: At Arkansas
Expectations for a Vols win: If there’s one team that sort of out-did Tennessee this week in the egg-laying department, it’s Missouri. I’m going to call that a push and leave the game right where it is at 70%.
| PREDICTIONS – MISSOURI | ||||||||||||
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
| 70 | 65 | 70 | 70 | 70 | ||||||||
11/18/17: LSU (3-1, 0-1 SEC, #25)
- W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
- W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
- W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
- W4: Beat Syracuse, 35-26.
- W5: Troy
- W6: At #22 Florida
- W7: #13 Auburn
- W8: At Ole Miss
- W9: Bye
- W10: At #1 Alabama
- W11: Arkansas
- W12: At #25 Tennessee
- W13: Texas A&M
Expectations for a Vols win: Any other week, LSU looking bad against Syracuse would have been cause to make a significant adjustment. Not this week. Keeping the game at 45%.
| PREDICTIONS – LSU | ||||||||||||
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
| 25 | 25 | 25 | 45 | 45 | ||||||||
11/25/17: Vanderbilt (3-1, 0-1 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
- W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
- W3: Beat #19 Kansas State, 14-7.
- W4: Lost to #1 Alabama, 59-0.
- W5: At #22 Florida
- W6: #15 Georgia
- W7: At Ole Miss
- W8: Bye
- W9: At South Carolina
- W10: W Kentucky
- W11: Kentucky
- W12: Missouri
- W13: At #25 Tennessee
Expectations for a Vols win: Vanderbilt, I feel your pain. No matter how much progress you’ve made, it’s sometimes difficult to see when playing in the SEC. Losing 59-0 to an Alabama team that Nick Saban remembered to say “Sic ‘Em” to does not mean that you’re not much better than you have been the past few seasons. I’m going to keep this one at 55% for now.
| PREDICTIONS – VANDERBILT | ||||||||||||
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
| 72 | 72 | 65 | 55 | 55 | ||||||||
All of that puts me at 6.95 wins, down from 7.39 last week. I still have 8 wins if you just count games I had to pick straight up. It’s just that I don’t feel as good about most of them.
Community Expectations
As of Sunday evening at 8:30, here’s where the GRT community stands on all of the above:
| UGA | SC | AL | KY | So. Miss. | MO | LSU | Vandy | Total Wins |
| 29% | 55% | 4% | 49% | 76% | 74% | 41% | 52% | 6.79 |
CBJ says never apologize for a win. Well, I disagree. What I saw on the field will require a zookeeper level grounds crew to recover from. CBJ owes us an apology for criticizing the empty stands in the fourth quarter. This was clearly the result of the fans’ disgust at the performance on the field and on the sidelines. We “voted with our feet” and the coach is too tone deaf to realize that he might have benefited from a little humility instead of insulting the very fan base contributing to his further employment at the school. Empty stands, drop… Read more »
I honestly believe any criticism of fans leaving is warranted. It honestly just pushes the narrative of a spoiled society. “Voting with our feet” does not really do anything to hurt the university. The tickets sold are not refunded when you leave the stadium. The university still gets all of the money for the tickets, parking, concessions, etc. The only people it truly hurts are the players and fans. The players see how quickly “fans” quit on them when they are still 3-1 and still have something to play for. This season, although is not off to the best start,… Read more »
CBJ is foolish to insult the fans for leaving. Just as he was foolish today for insulting the media who cover the team with the Fake News comment. The guy is just completely tone deaf when it comes to matters like this. The administration notices empty seats. They reflect the temperature and attitude of the fan base, along with big donor calls and checks. I can promise you that CBJ is not receiving a lot of support from most of those big money folks now. Most have had it with him. Their only question is now or at season’s end… Read more »