If you read only one two things about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from SB Nation’s Bill Connelly:

Not great news for Vols fans, but still a ton of great information with advanced stats. 

. . . and this, from Wes Rucker:

Public service announcement for Vols fans.

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. SEC Coaches Talk Anonymously About Conference Foes for 2018, via Athlon Sports
  2. Tennessee Vols Preseason Camp Primer: Outside linebacker, via 247Sports
  3. Vols hoops come in at No. 3 in ESPN’s latest BPI, via ESPN
  4. Despite some teachable moments, Rashaan Gaulden impressing Panthers, via 247Sports
  5. Tennessee’s Best Teams Have Great Offensive Lines, via Gameday on Rocky Top. This is a reheat from one year ago today by Will. O-lines matter, y’all.

Behind the paywalls

  • Analyst: ‘Aggressive’ Jeremy Pruitt will recruit at high level, via 247Sports
  • Lawrence loves ‘chill’ environment in latest Tennessee trip, via VolQuest
  • 2018 Positional Preview: DBs, via VolQuest
  • Tennessee Vols football recruiting: Vols ‘solidified’ among favorites for juco DT Savion Williams, via 247Sports
  • Tennessee Vols football recruiting: Four-star, in-state DB sees ‘different side’ of Vols on visit, via 247Sports
  • Tennessee Vols football recruiting: Four-star LSU CB commit gets Vols offer, wants to ‘have options’, via 247Sports
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HT
HT
6 years ago

I enjoy Connelly’s work and he would be the first to tell you that everything he writes (that is based on S&P+) must be taken with the requisite grain of salt of any statistical analysis, but man is that grim. The good news is that it is basically impossible to predict with any kind of accuracy how a completely new coaching staff (including a head coach who has never had that position before at any level) will do. The chart in the first comment (from Beardguy) is a handy visual tool based on the same win probability numbers. Note how… Read more »

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Ethan
Ethan
6 years ago
Reply to  HT

And also Florida in the top 35 or so? It remains a mystery to me why Florida is both perceived and appears to be statistically predicted to be SO MUCH better than Tennessee next season.

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Joel Hollingsworth
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Joel Hollingsworth
6 years ago
Reply to  Ethan

I do not understand that, either, except maybe for the fact that they always seem to beat us even while both teams are bad.

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HT
HT
6 years ago
Reply to  Joel Hollingsworth

Florida does have a lot of talent on the roster – more than we do, IMO – and we have much more to go on with Dan Mullen than we do with Pruitt, as far as guessing how well they will do as head coaches at their new schools. But it is still a guess.

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Joel Hollingsworth
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Joel Hollingsworth
6 years ago
Reply to  HT

True. Also this: Florida basically has had one problem (QB), and conventional wisdom is that Mullen is the perfect answer for that, so as long as he doesn’t break something else, they’re fixed. Or so goes the thought.

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Joel Hollingsworth
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Joel Hollingsworth
6 years ago
Reply to  HT

Yeah, numbers in the preseason are especially seductive but of ill-repute. I’ve taken to sort of looking at the outliers at the top and bottom, chalking those up as wins and losses and then just guessing at odds at the games in the big, fat middle. I don’t think we’re going to win a lot of games, but I do think odds are that will win a game or two or three of those in the middle.

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