Saturday was Tennessee’s 18th loss as a favorite of at least a touchdown since 1985, which is as far back as the data at Covers.com goes. That’s roughly one every other season, a pace that hasn’t slowed in the last 11 years despite the Vols having far fewer opportunities to be favored by at least a touchdown.
I’ve thought some about the start of these last 11 years today. The Vols lost openers as underdogs to #12 Cal in 2007 and #17 West Virginia last year. The only other Week 1 blip between Jerry Colquitt’s knee in 1994 and yesterday was in 2008: #18 Tennessee a touchdown favorite at UCLA.
How does the way you felt when the Vols lost that game compare to the way you feel today?
In 2008 the Vols were defending SEC East champs, the Tide just went 7-6 with a loss to Louisiana-Monroe, the Gators were coming off a 9-4 campaign, and the Dawgs – preseason #1 – had lost to Tennessee by 39 points over the last two years.
There’s no need to go back through Dave Clawson’s history; to his credit, Wake Forest just beat Utah State 38-35 in a game with nearly 1,200 yards of offense. On days like yesterday there’s still a part of me that imagines an alternate reality where the Vols hired someone else to run the offense in 2008 and none of the last 11 years happened. Still, the Clawfense rightfully drew anger that night in Pasadena, specifically for having Jonathan Crompton throw it 41 times when Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty combined for 162 yards on only 25 carries.
When Tennessee lost that game, I was furious. I think losing in Week 1 is one of the least fun things that happens in college football, because you spend so long waiting for this thing to get here and then it immediately betrays you. Even last year, with the Vols clear underdogs against West Virginia, it’s a special kind of no fun. And losing as a favorite is way worse.
Losing as a four-possession favorite should be way, way worse. But 11 years later, at least for me, it just doesn’t feel that way today.
I’m an optimist by nature and an idiot often. There were a few times in Butch Jones’ tenure where I found myself less affected by a loss, particularly to Florida in 2017. Some of that was the ridiculous nature of that game and its ending, but a lot of it was having had the conversation about Jones’ and the shortcomings of risk management often enough to build in some self-defense.
None of us were prepared for yesterday, no matter the trials and tribulations of these last 11 years. They didn’t build in self-defense on the front end of a new season as a four-possession favorite. I’ve hoped, more this off-season than ever before, that they’ve helped us with perspective. But they’ve also installed a little more “Oh well…” on the back end than might be good for business.
Good Seats Available
Yesterday’s announced attendance: 85,503. The Vols announced better crowds than that in every home game last season. Not just the home opener after the loss to West Virginia (96,464 vs ETSU). But more than 85,000 were announced against UTEP and Charlotte as well. Only the last game against Vanderbilt drew a smaller announced crowd in 2017 (83,117). Jim Chaney’s interim gig vs Kentucky in 2012 drew 81,841.
By contrast, the Vols vs UAB the week after losing to UCLA in 2008: 98,205. Just shy of 100,000 saw that Wyoming game. And Fulmer’s final game vs Kentucky at the end of that season: 102,388.
The first answer to what would make all of this better is, of course, “Beat BYU.” But apathy via attendance – an important factor because you can measure it in $$$ – was a problem before the Vols lost to Georgia State. This part, in particular, might get worse before it gets better.
The thing that made me feel the best today:
Man, I hope there’s some truth to this. Butch Jones’ first class, with the benefit of no early signing period, added Josh Dobbs and Marquez North after the transition from Derek Dooley. Dobbs might’ve been Arizona State’s pride and joy if an early signing period was available. Butch’s 2014 Vols were perfectly positioned to capitalize on Year Two magic before blowing it against the Gators, but even then Dobbs showed up to change the narrative.
The most praiseworthy parts of yesterday were Jauan Jennings, Brent Cimaglia, and then two freshmen in Eric Gray and Henry To’o To’o. It’s one game, and obviously an infamous one, but those look like guys who can help Tennessee right now and really help them next season. The kind of trajectory we expect from a coach’s initial recruiting haul might now roll over into year three; Pruitt’s tenure here is as old as the early signing period, so we’ll find out together. But it was a happier thought if you’re out on the year two magic already.
For depressing reference, here are all of Tennessee’s losses as at least a touchdown favorite since 1985:
| 08 Wyoming | 27 |
| 96 Memphis | 26 |
| 19 Georgia St | 24.5 |
| 92 Arkansas | 22 |
| 86 Army | 17 |
| 16 South Carolina | 14.5 |
| 05 South Carolina | 14 |
| 88 Duke | 13.5 |
| 86 Mississippi St | 11.5 |
| 01 Georgia | 11.5 |
| 05 Vanderbilt | 11 |
| 09 UCLA | 10.5 |
| 00 LSU | 9 |
| 99 Arkansas | 7.5 |
| 01 LSU | 7 |
| 04 Notre Dame | 7 |
| 08 UCLA | 7 |
| 16 Vanderbilt | 7 |
Yeah, that 2016 South Carolina game looks worse in this context.