On the heels of the Mississippi State win, our community Expected Win Total stands at 4.82. As the name implies, we’re not expecting bowl eligibility yet, but the Vols are at least back in the conversation.
That particular point of progress isn’t likely to change in Tuscaloosa after dark, where the Vols are +34.5. But there’s a version of this where we come out of Saturday night feeling just as good (better?) about Tennessee’s chase for six wins.
Last year Alabama came to the Third Saturday in October looking like one of the best college football teams in the history of earth. Tennessee had more of a pulse than in 2017, when the Vols were dominated from start to finish, and also in 2016, when the #9 Vols were humiliated offensively. The 2018 Vols scored two second quarter touchdowns to make it 35-14, and were set to receive the second half kickoff. It ain’t much – and Bama punched it in just before halftime anyway – but against these guys, it was something. At 4.69 yards per play, you could at least entertain the notion of something good happening when the Vols snapped the ball.
This year, Alabama’s defense is certainly more vulnerable, though vulnerability is relative when your offense is averaging more than eight yards per play. But South Carolina (5.34 yards per play), Ole Miss (5.41), and Texas A&M (5.56) all had more success than we’re used to seeing teams of that caliber get against the Tide defense. I’m quite sure A&M has more talent than Tennessee right now, but South Carolina and Ole Miss are fair comparisons.
The 21 points Tennessee scored on Alabama last year were already the most in this rivalry (in regulation) for the Vols since…2001! You want Tennessee, especially if quarterbacked by Brian Maurer, to land enough punches to believe they can do the same against South Carolina, etc.
Of course, the other side of this coin is the other side of the ball, where progress this season would be holding Alabama to 41 points or less, or less than 6.5 yards per play. When you’re this kind of underdog, it’s hard to make covering the spread a success; I’m not sure we’re going to feel great about life if the Vols lose by 31. But this week feels more about maintaining the momentum established last Saturday. Maybe that comes via onside kicks and fourth down conversions – hey, maybe it’s an effective recruiting strategy for those young enough to pay attention after 9:00 PM ET – but the bigger picture is keeping this team not only together where it fell apart last November, but moving forward in the chase for six wins. The Vols came out of the last Third Saturday feeling like they’d done that, then followed it up with an almost-good-enough performance at South Carolina. Can we get a little more of the same this year?
