The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

We’ll know more after the Vols’ first game Saturday, but now that we’re through fall camp, it’s time to update our expectations from our pre-fall camp assessment. We still don’t have definite news on the availability of either Trey Smith or Aubrey Solomon, and the general vibe out of fall camp was good. Losing Emmitt Gooden was a blow and amplified the question marks around the defensive line, but for me, the only effect it’s had on my expectations is to keep them in check against the tide of optimism that rises every August as kickoff approaches.

The main additional data point comes courtesy of Saturday night’s game between the Florida Gators and the Miami Hurricanes. Both teams were sloppy overall and featured frightening defenses that posed real problems for the offenses. I was suspicious of the Gators’ offensive line before the game, and although I’m not ready to convict, I do believe that suspicion was well-placed.

With all of that, my current win total expectation for the Vols is 6.6, up every so slightly from . . . 6.55 just prior to fall camp. It’s a torrent of optimism!

Preseason: 6.55
After Week 0: 6.6

Explanations are below, but here’s a table with my updated expectations:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Lost to Georgia State, 30-38
Sat, Sep 7	Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14	Beat Chattanooga, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21	Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3
Sat, Oct 5	Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12	Beat Mississippi State, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19	Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26	Beat South Carolina, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2	Beat UAB, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Kentucky, 17-13
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Missouri, 24-20
Sat, Nov 30	vs Vanderbilt

The Vols’ future opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the Sun Belt East


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Tennessee, 38-30
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Furman, 48-42
Sat, Sep 14	Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10
Sat, Sep 21	Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Arkansas State, 52-38
Sat, Oct 12	Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21
Sat, Oct 19	Beat Army, 28-21
Sat, Oct 26	Beat Troy, 52-33
Sat, Nov 9	Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31
Sat, Nov 16	Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27
Sat, Nov 23	Beat South Alabama, 28-15
Sat, Nov 30	@ Georgia Southern

BYU Cougars

Current record: 0-0 (0-0)


Thu, Aug 29	Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14	Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT
Sat, Sep 21	Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19
Sat, Sep 28	Lost @ Toledo, 28-21
Sat, Oct 12	Lost @ South Florida, 27-23
Sat, Oct 19	Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25
Sat, Nov 2	Beat Utah State, 42-14
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Liberty, 31-24
Sat, Nov 16	Beat Idaho State, 42-10
Sat, Nov 23	Beat UMass, 56-24
Sat, Nov 30	@ San Diego State

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the Southern Conference


Thu, Aug 29	Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10
Sat, Sep 7	Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20
Sat, Sep 14	Lost at Tennessee, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21	Lost to James Madison, 37-14
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Western Carolina, 60-36
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Mercer, 34-17
Thu, Oct 17	Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13
Sat, Oct 26	Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT
Sat, Nov 2	Lost to Furman, 35-20
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Samford, 35-27
Sat, Nov 16	Beat The Citadel, 34-33
Sat, Nov 23	Lost to VMI, 31-24

Florida Gators

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 24	Beat Miami, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7	Beat UT Martin, 45-0
Sat, Sep 14	Beat Kentucky, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21	Beat Tennessee, 34-3
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Towson, 38-0
Sat, Oct 5	Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13
Sat, Oct 12	Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28
Sat, Oct 19	Beat South Carolina, 38-27
Sat, Nov 2	Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16	Beat Missouri, 23-6
Sat, Nov 30	vs Florida State

You expect things to be a bit sloppy in the first game of the season, and they were. Fortunately for the Vols, they get some live fire reps against Georgia State to dial things in, and fortunately for Florida, Miami was just as sloppy as the Gators. The main takeaway from this game for me is that although Florida’s defense appears to be just as daunting as usual, the offense doesn’t look too intimidating. The first exhibit suggests that the offensive line is going to present a challenge that Feleipe Franks isn’t yet equipped to overcome.

That said, it obviously didn’t change my perception all that much, as I only bumped the forecast for the game from a 30% chance to a 35% chance. The main reason for that is that I’d already accounted for the offensive line.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Murray State, 63-17
Sat, Sep 14	Beat Arkansas State, 55-0
Sat, Sep 21	Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Tennessee, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12	Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19	Beat Kentucky, 21-0
Sat, Nov 2	Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Missouri, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16	Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Texas A&M, 19-13
Sat, Nov 30	@ Georgia Tech

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC West


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Louisiana, 38-28
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15
Sat, Sep 14	Lost to Kansas State, 31-24
Sat, Sep 21	Beat Kentucky, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28	Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23
Sat, Oct 12	Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19	Lost to No. 2 LSU
Sat, Oct 26	Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30
Sat, Nov 2	Beat Arkansas, 54-24
Sat, Nov 16	Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7
Thu, Nov 28	vs Ole Miss

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC West


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Duke, 42-3
Sat, Sep 7	Beat New Mexico State, 62-10
Sat, Sep 14	Beat South Carolina, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21	Beat Southern Miss, 49-7
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Ole Miss, 59-31
Sat, Oct 12	Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28
Sat, Oct 19	Beat Tennessee, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26	Beat Arkansas, 48-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41
Sat, Nov 16	Beat Mississippi State, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Western Carolina, 66-3
Sat, Nov 30	@ No. 11 Auburn

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Lost to North Carolina, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10
Sat, Sep 14	Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21	Lost @ Missouri, 34-14
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Kentucky, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12	Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19	Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27
Sat, Oct 26	Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2	Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15
Sat, Nov 16	Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6
Sat, Nov 30	vs 4 Clemson

UAB Blazers

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in C-USA West


Thu, Aug 29	Beat Alabama State, 24-19
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Akron, 31-20
Sat, Sep 21	Beat South Alabama, 35-3
Sat, Sep 28	Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Rice, 35-20
Sat, Oct 12	Beat UTSA, 33-14
Sat, Oct 19	Beat Old Dominion, 38-14
Sat, Nov 2	Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2
Sat, Nov 16	Beat UTEP, 37-10
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14
Sat, Nov 30	@ North Texas

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Toledo, 38-24
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17
Sat, Sep 14	Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21	Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28	Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12	Beat Arkansas, 24-20
Sat, Oct 19	Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0
Sat, Oct 26	Beat Missouri, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost to Tennessee, 17-13
Sat, Nov 16	Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23	Beat UT Martin, 50-7
Sat, Nov 30	vs Louisville

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Lost to Wyoming, 37-31
Sat, Sep 7	Beat West Virginia, 38-7
Sat, Sep 14	Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0
Sat, Sep 21	Beat South Carolina, 34-14
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Troy, 42-10
Sat, Oct 12	Beat Ole Miss, 38-27
Sat, Oct 19	Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14
Sat, Oct 26	Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16	Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6
Sat, Nov 23	Lost to Tennessee, 24-20
Fri, Nov 29	@ Arkansas

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7	Lost to Purdue, 42-24
Sat, Sep 21	Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18
Sat, Oct 5	Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6
Sat, Oct 12	Lost to UNLV, 34-10
Sat, Oct 19	Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14
Sat, Nov 2	Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16	Lost to Kentucky, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23	Beat ETSU, 38-0
Sat, Nov 30	@ Tennessee

What about you? Where are your expectations heading into Week 1?

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Will Shelton

5 years ago

I’m down just a hair, from 7.05 to 7.00. The Emmit Gooden news slightly outweighs Florida looking dumb. It’ll be interesting to see how quickly our perception of BYU changes after they play Utah on Thursday – significant first impressions for two of our most important games before we take a snap.

Reply to Will Shelton

I too am down slightly, from 5.96 to 5.92, and for the same reasons as Will plus Bryce Thompson possibly (probably?) missing BYU. My Florida confidence (15) didn’t change at all. I suspect they will have worked out a lot of that sloppiness by the time we come to town.

Drew

I haven’t kept detailed notes about my predictions, and I suspect my mood might affect my picks more than anything that happens on the field, but I’m at 6.40, which I’m pretty sure is down overall from what I was a couple of weeks ago.

Pete

I am up overall to 6.6 as I now believe we have a shot at beating Florida. On D, the key will be to make Franks throw on the run and really make him pay when he tucks and runs. On offense, nothing more than protecting the QB better than Miami did. Strangely, I put almost as much weight on a Florida win as USCe, Missouri, Kentucky and Vandy (45-55). Anything more than Bama at 1% is crazy talk.

Harley

Down to 7.3 from my “Orange Colored Glasses” view in the first go, but still optimistic without injury impact. Solomon eligibility and Trey returning make me optimistic. Go Vols!!

daetilus

I’m also bad at remember exactly what I put each time. So I decided to start tracking it this week. I don’t know what numbers I had last week, but I got my total from the post as 7.44. This time, I got 7.42 which seems about right in that my overall attitude hasn’t changed much. Gooden being out but Solomon is in, which kind of offsets in my mind. Thompson being out hurts, but I’m hopeful that he’ll get to come back after what little I’ve read on it. We’ll see what the investigation says though. Otherwise, I stated… Read more »

Reply to daetilus

just popping in to say this aged like fine milk.

and putting in my adjusted total….1…..over UTC by 1

Sam Hensley

6.93

Feels just about right. Trey being back makes me feel (surprisingly) a lot more excited for this year. I think his presence back at guard could seriously impact this offense.

Just completed a revised win total based on the GA State performance… I am now at 1.4. There is something very fundamentally wrong with this “Team”. I don’t know what it is and will not assign blame without facts, but I really don’t know what it is going to take to get this program turned around. My orange colored glasses are forever shattered. Go Vols!