The Sins of Recruiting Return

One of the most popular things I ever wrote in eight years at Rocky Top Talk has an unfortunate headline in hindsight: What’s Wrong With Tennessee Football Has Nothing To Do With Derek Dooley.

We published it in 2011 after the Vols lost 14-3 to #9 South Carolina in Justin Worley’s first start, an effort to look at the big picture in the midst of what felt like a lost season. Tennessee lit the flames of expectation that year with a win over Cincinnati, then lost Justin Hunter the next week and Tyler Bray two games later. As a result, the Vols lost by 31 to #1 LSU, 31 to #2 Alabama, then failed to score a touchdown against the Gamecocks.

Dooley, of course, eventually became part of what was wrong with Tennessee football. The Vols lost at #8 Arkansas by 42, beat Vanderbilt in Bray’s return, then infamously lost to Kentucky’s WR/QB. Dooley hired Sal Sunseri to run his defense, and that was that.

But the truth of Tennessee’s struggles up to that point remained: a three-year recruiting failure in 2007, 2008, and 2009. The 2007 class was ranked third and universally praised. The 2008 class was a disaster from the word go, ranked 35th with Fulmer still at the helm. And Lane Kiffin’s 2009 class lost half of its signees by the time I wrote that story in October 2011. From 2007-09 Tennessee signed 31 blue chip players (four or five-stars). One was Eric Berry. But only two others became long-term starters.

So that was the argument: Tennessee is losing games because the other teams have better players.

If long-term starters is still the benchmark, then what Jeremy Pruitt is working with isn’t exactly the same situation, or as easy to rationalize. Butch Jones’ 2016 class – the guys who should be seniors this year – included 10 blue chips in a class of 23 (43.5%). Seven of those guys became/are consistent starters, including Nigel Warrior, Jarrett Guarantano, Marquez Callaway, and Daniel Bituli on this year’s team. Add in Jonathan Kongbo, Alexis Johnson, and some starting duties for Ryan Johnson. The Vols lost only Marquill Osborne to transfer.

One of the biggest problems Pruitt faces right now is the 2017 class. Signed in the fading light of the Butch Jones era, Tennessee landed only five blue chip players in a class of 28 (17.9%). The two highest-rated signees are Trey Smith and Ty Chandler. But the other three blue chips – Maleik Gray, Eric Crosby, and Will Ignont – have transferred, retired from football, and failed to make the travel squad to Florida.

A significant percentage of what Tennessee is trying to get done right now is with three-star players from this class: LaTrell Bumphus, Matthew Butler, Kivon Bennett, Theo Jackson, Riley Locklear, K’Rojhn Calbert, Josh Palmer, Shawn Shamburger (and Brent Cimaglia!).

Pruitt’s quick turnaround 2018 class – the first to wrestle with the early signing period – landed eight blue chips in a class of 22 (36.4%). The highest-rated signee was J.J. Peterson, who remains a mystery. But the other seven guys are all already starters or would be if they were healthy: Alontae Taylor, Greg Emerson, Bryce Thompson, Dominick Wood-Anderson, Jordan Allen, Emmitt Gooden, and Jerome Carvin.

And Pruitt is already giving significant snaps to his three highest-rated signees from 2019 – Darnell Wright, Wanya Morris, Henry To’o To’o – plus Eric Gray.

Current recruiting is the very best reason to hope in Pruitt. The 2019 class had a dozen blue chips in a class of 22 (54.5%), the best ratio since Fulmer in 2005. The 2020 commitment list includes seven blue chips with 14 on the board (including a two-star long snapper). This is championship-level recruiting.

The Vols, of course, also have to develop that talent. Butch Jones recruited at a championship level in 2014 and 2015 and came close in 2016, but we all know that story. The ratios are already better with Pruitt, but right now the Vols are facing a significant hole from the class of 2017. And no matter what, the Vols have more talent than Georgia State and BYU.

At the end of the recruiting decade, I pulled Tennessee’s highest-rated signee at every position since the class of 2010 via 247’s database:

You’ll notice a couple of things here. First of all, nine of these guys are on the current roster, including three starting offensive linemen and all three linebackers. Kudos to Pruitt’s staff for recruiting so well at those positions.

Of the remaining 13 guys, the same number (five) left the program as made it from Tennessee to the NFL (Hunter, Malone, Stone, Phillips, Tuttle). The Vols’ biggest NFL talents of this decade – Cordarrelle Patterson, Derek Barnett, and Alvin Kamara – fall just outside the highest rated signees at their positions.

So, as with all things, you really have to wait and see. The current team struggles, in part, from recruiting at the end of Butch Jones’ tenure and the nature of a coaching change with an early signing period. The brightest spots for Pruitt are recruiting wins, including plenty of freshmen on this year’s team. The nearly lost blue chip class of 2017 hurts right now, but it can’t be all of Tennessee’s problems. You have to hope that all of this gets better at the same time: Pruitt’s coaching and development skills alongside really strong recruiting classes, with both parts of that equation clearly still finding their way.