Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine


My assessment

The Vols were off this week, so there’s no change in expectations there. And Vanderbilt looked about the same as usual, so there’s no change there. Missouri, well . . . Kelly Bryant played, so that made me more uncomfortable about him playing next week against the Vols, but the Tigers offense still struggled even with him at the helm and the team at home. So no change for me there, either.

My current expected win total is still 6.4. I think 6 wins is pretty safe, and hitting the preseason goal of 7-5 will all come down to the Missouri game. That, by the way, would also mean that the team beat our GRT 2019 magazine preseason goals of finishing 4th in the SEC East behind Missouri despite playing much of the season without the guy on the cover. Win both remaining games, and the Vols finish 5-3, and the closest Missouri could get would be 4-4. These are eggs and not chickens, though, so Tennessee needs to keep them safe and warm for two more weeks.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87
  • After Week 2: 2.37
  • After Week 3: 3.65
  • After Week 4: 2.9
  • After Week 5: 3.25
  • After Week 6: 3.85
  • After Week 7: 4.4
  • After Week 8: 4.7
  • After Week 9: 5.6
  • After Week 10: 5.9
  • After Week 11: 6.4
  • After Week 12: 6.4

Details: I still have Missouri at 60% and Vanderbilt at 80%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 5-5 (3-3), 3rd in the SEC East

Off this week.

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-5 (2-4), 4th in the SEC East

Kelly Bryant played this week for Missouri against the Gators, and he was slippery but the offense was still mostly ineffective, and the team is now on a four-game losing streak. The Tigers defense was tough in the first half, but Florida still ended up getting 23 against them. The SPM hasn’t liked Tennessee in this one all season — until this week, and now it’s looking like it’s going to come down to keeping Bryant from getting back on track.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-8 (1-6), 7th in the SEC East

As Will has been fond of saying the past several weeks, Vanderbilt is just a bad football team. Against Kentucky this weekend, they managed only 198 yards of offense while giving up 528 yards to the Wildcats. If it weren’t for the recent history of struggles, we wouldn’t be worried about these guys at all.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 6-4 (3-3), 3rd in the Sun Belt East

There’s no shame in losing to App State, and sitting at 6-4 with two winnable games to go after a 2-10 season last year has to feel good for the Panthers.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 6-4

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 6-5 (5-2), 3rd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 9-2 (6-2), 2nd in the SEC East

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 9-1 (6-1), 1st in the SEC East

Georgia looked good against Auburn and had the game well in hand until Auburn caught some lightning and made a game of it. The Tigers actually ended up with more yards and more first downs than the Bulldogs, but it was too late. With the Gators and Tigers now behind them, Georgia looks ready to roll the rest of the way home into the post-season.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 4-6 (2-5), 5th in the SEC West

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 9-1 (6-1), 2nd in the SEC West

Prayers for Tua. To make the SEC Championship Game again this year, Alabama would have to win out (including the Iron Bowl) and have LSU lose twice. The former is possible, even without Tua, but one of LSU’s remaining games is against Arkansas. In other words, LSU is not going to lose twice.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-7 (3-5), 4th in the SEC East

We warned in our preseason magazine that South Carolina had the toughest schedule in the SEC and that the Gamecocks could struggle even if they were good. It’s hard to say at this point whether they’re actually good, but there can be no doubt that they have succumbed to that brutal schedule. They’ve lost 7 games already with only No. 3 Clemson left, and they’re likely to finish this season 4-8 and home for the holidays.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 7-3 (4-2), 3rd in C-USA West

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 5-5 (3-5), 4th in the SEC East

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

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Will Shelton
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Will Shelton
4 years ago

Holding steady at 6.2 with Mizzou at 40 and Vandy at 80

Isaac Bishop
Isaac Bishop
4 years ago

I’m at 6.5
Missouri is 60
Vandy taking a beating at home by Kentucky warrants a 90

HT
HT
4 years ago

July 25, 2019 (pre-season): 5.96
August 26, 2019 (after “Week Zero”): 5.92
September 3, 2019 (post-Georgia St.): 3.86
September 9, 2019 (post-BYU): 3.09
September 16, 2019 (post-Chattanooga): 3.61
September 24, 2019 (post-Florida): 2.71
September 30, 2019 (post open date): 2.61
October 10, 2019 (post-Georgia): 2.76
October 14, 2019 (post-Mississippi St.): 3.87
October 21, 2019 (post-Alabama): 4.00
October 29, 2019 (post-South Carolina): 5.35
November 4, 2019 (post-UAB): 5.70
November 11, 2019 (post-Kentucky): 6.35
November 18, 2019 (post-bye): 6.41

Broken down like so: @Mizzou: 51%, Vandy 90%.

Harley
Harley
4 years ago

6.5 is my new win total. 60% Mizzo, 90% Vandy. Go Vols!!