Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine


My assessment

About the Vols: I wouldn’t characterize my concern about UAB this weekend as worry, but I was quite wary. Even that was misplaced, though, as Tennessee looked mostly really good Saturday night against the Blazers. With three games to go, they can afford only one slip up for bowl eligibility, and they have a chance to run the table and meet preseason expectations. If they do that, it will mean that they both lost two games and won two games they shouldn’t have. I’m thinking they have a chance, as it appears they will be favorites against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, and they may well be favorites against Missouri after the Tigers play Georgia and Florida in consecutive weeks.

I’ve made no adjustments this week, but with UAB becoming 100% instead of 70%, I now have an expected win total of . . . 5.9.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87
  • After Week 2: 2.37
  • After Week 3: 3.65
  • After Week 4: 2.9
  • After Week 5: 3.25
  • After Week 6: 3.85
  • After Week 7: 4.4
  • After Week 8: 4.7
  • After Week 9: 5.6
  • After Week 10: 5.9

Details: I kept everybody right where they were at last week: Kentucky and Missouri at 60%, and Vanderbilt at 70%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 4-5 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 4-4 (2-4), 6th in the SEC East

Kentucky was off this week while the Vols took on UAB.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-3 (2-2), 3rd in the SEC East

The Tigers were also off this week, but they’re coming off two consecutive losses to Vanderbilt and Kentucky and now have two consecutive games against Georgia and Florida. They’re likely to come to Neyland on November 23 hurting, both physically and mentally.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-6 (1-4), 7th in the SEC East

Vanderbilt looked good early this week against South Carolina, but faded fast.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 6-2 (3-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

Off this week.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 4-4

Good win for the Cougars this week against Utah State.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 4-5 (3-2), 4th in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 7-2 (4-2), 2nd in the SEC East

This year’s edition of the Florida-Georgia game was a good one with both teams showing like they deserved their Top 10 rankings.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 7-1 (4-1), 1st in the SEC East

Hard-fought game for Georgia this week against the Gators, but Jake Fromm was money on third down. Former Tennessee tight end Eli Wolf sealed the deal with a huge catch for a first down that allowed the Bulldogs to run out the clock.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 4-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC West

Kylin Hill, the SEC’s leading rusher, had 21 carries for 234 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Razorbacks this week. Against Tennessee, he had 11 carries for 13 yards. Woo.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in the SEC West

Off in advance of a big showdown with LSU next week.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-5 (3-4), 4th in the SEC East

Expected result this week for the Gamecocks.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 6-2 (3-1), 2nd in C-USA West

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

0 0 votes
Article Rating
5 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Jayyyy
Jayyyy
5 years ago

5.7, still feel like the road games are true toss ups

Harley
Harley
5 years ago

5.7 now vs. 5.3 last week. Have both KY and MO at 50/50 since they are road games and Vandy at 70. Not sure the Defense can continue to play at such a high level and keep bailing out the lack of production by the offense. Go Vols!!

HT
HT
5 years ago

Add one more for 5.70!

July 25, 2019 (pre-season): 5.96
August 26, 2019 (after “Week Zero”): 5.92
September 3, 2019 (post-Georgia St.): 3.86
September 9, 2019 (post-BYU): 3.09
September 16, 2019 (post-Chattanooga): 3.61
September 24, 2019 (post-Florida): 2.71
September 30, 2019 (post open date): 2.61
October 10, 2019 (post-Georgia): 2.76
October 14, 2019 (post-Mississippi St.): 3.87
October 21, 2019 (post-Alabama): 4.00
October 29, 2019 (post-South Carolina): 5.35
November 4, 2019 (post-UAB): 5.70

Broken down like so: @Kentucky: 50%, @Mizzou: 40%, Vandy 80%.

Will Shelton
Admin
Will Shelton
5 years ago

Likewise, 5.7. This thing could swing in a hurry depending on what Vols do with UK and Missouri does with UGA.

Gavin Driskill
Gavin Driskill
5 years ago

40%, 40%, 70% for 5.5 here.

I can’t pick ’em to win on the road until they win on the road.