The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: After the bye

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

My assessment

The Vols were off this week, and the results from prior opponents didn’t really have much impact one way or the other. But results from future opponents did rearrange things a bit and improve expectations every so slightly.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 3.25, up a teensy bit from last week.

Preseason: 6.55
After Week 0: 6.6
After Week 1: 2.87
After Week 2: 2.37
After Week 3: 3.65
After Week 4: 2.9
After Week 5: 3.25

Details: Alabama and Georgia both remain at 5%. After that, I have three groups: Missouri and South Carolina are at 25%, Mississippi State and Kentucky are at 35%, and Vanderbilt and UAB are at 50%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 1-3 (0-1), 4th in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Lost to Georgia State, 30-38
Sat, Sep 7	Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14	Beat Chattanooga, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21	Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3
Sat, Oct 5	Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12	Beat Mississippi State, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19	Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26	Beat South Carolina, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2	Beat UAB, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Kentucky, 17-13
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Missouri, 24-20
Sat, Nov 30	vs Vanderbilt

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 2-2 (0-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Tennessee, 38-30
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Furman, 48-42
Sat, Sep 14	Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10
Sat, Sep 21	Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Arkansas State, 52-38
Sat, Oct 12	Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21
Sat, Oct 19	Beat Army, 28-21
Sat, Oct 26	Beat Troy, 52-33
Sat, Nov 9	Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31
Sat, Nov 16	Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27
Sat, Nov 23	Beat South Alabama, 28-15
Sat, Nov 30	@ Georgia Southern

Like the Vols, the Panthers were off this week.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 2-3 (0-0)


Thu, Aug 29	Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14	Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT
Sat, Sep 21	Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19
Sat, Sep 28	Lost @ Toledo, 28-21
Sat, Oct 12	Lost @ South Florida, 27-23
Sat, Oct 19	Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25
Sat, Nov 2	Beat Utah State, 42-14
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Liberty, 31-24
Sat, Nov 16	Beat Idaho State, 42-10
Sat, Nov 23	Beat UMass, 56-24
Sat, Nov 30	@ San Diego State

Toledo returned an interception 40 yards to the 2-yard line in the last minute of the game to get the go-ahead touchdown.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 2-3 (1-0), 3rd in the Southern Conference


Thu, Aug 29	Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10
Sat, Sep 7	Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20
Sat, Sep 14	Lost at Tennessee, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21	Lost to James Madison, 37-14
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Western Carolina, 60-36
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Mercer, 34-17
Thu, Oct 17	Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13
Sat, Oct 26	Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT
Sat, Nov 2	Lost to Furman, 35-20
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Samford, 35-27
Sat, Nov 16	Beat The Citadel, 34-33
Sat, Nov 23	Lost to VMI, 31-24

Florida Gators

Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 24	Beat Miami, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7	Beat UT Martin, 45-0
Sat, Sep 14	Beat Kentucky, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21	Beat Tennessee, 34-3
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Towson, 38-0
Sat, Oct 5	Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13
Sat, Oct 12	Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28
Sat, Oct 19	Beat South Carolina, 38-27
Sat, Nov 2	Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16	Beat Missouri, 23-6
Sat, Nov 30	vs Florida State

Nothing to see here.

The Vols’ future opponents

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 4-0 (1-0), 2nd in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Murray State, 63-17
Sat, Sep 14	Beat Arkansas State, 55-0
Sat, Sep 21	Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Tennessee, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12	Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19	Beat Kentucky, 21-0
Sat, Nov 2	Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9	Beat Missouri, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16	Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Texas A&M, 19-13
Sat, Nov 30	@ Georgia Tech

The Bulldogs were also off this week.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-2 (1-1), 4th in the SEC West


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Louisiana, 38-28
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15
Sat, Sep 14	Lost to Kansas State, 31-24
Sat, Sep 21	Beat Kentucky, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28	Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23
Sat, Oct 12	Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19	Lost to No. 2 LSU
Sat, Oct 26	Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30
Sat, Nov 2	Beat Arkansas, 54-24
Sat, Nov 16	Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7
Thu, Nov 28	vs Ole Miss

These Bulldogs, however, were not off. Well, actually, they were “off,” but in a different sense of the word, meaning they got absolutely clobbered by the Auburn Tigers. Even those 23 points are misleading.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC West


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Duke, 42-3
Sat, Sep 7	Beat New Mexico State, 62-10
Sat, Sep 14	Beat South Carolina, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21	Beat Southern Miss, 49-7
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Ole Miss, 59-31
Sat, Oct 12	Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28
Sat, Oct 19	Beat Tennessee, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26	Beat Arkansas, 48-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41
Sat, Nov 16	Beat Mississippi State, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Western Carolina, 66-3
Sat, Nov 30	@ No. 11 Auburn

The Tide defense gave up 476 yards, and yet the team still won by 28 points. Sigh.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-3 (1-2), 4th in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Lost to North Carolina, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10
Sat, Sep 14	Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21	Lost @ Missouri, 34-14
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Kentucky, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12	Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19	Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27
Sat, Oct 26	Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2	Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15
Sat, Nov 16	Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6
Sat, Nov 30	vs 4 Clemson

I think the take on South Carolina so far is exactly what we said in our magazine prior to the season: They are actually good, but their brutal schedule obscures it. They basically throttled Kentucky’s offense.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 3-1 (0-1), 4th in C-USA West


Thu, Aug 29	Beat Alabama State, 24-19
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Akron, 31-20
Sat, Sep 21	Beat South Alabama, 35-3
Sat, Sep 28	Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Rice, 35-20
Sat, Oct 12	Beat UTSA, 33-14
Sat, Oct 19	Beat Old Dominion, 38-14
Sat, Nov 2	Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2
Sat, Nov 16	Beat UTEP, 37-10
Sat, Nov 23	Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14
Sat, Nov 30	@ North Texas

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-3 (0-3), 7th in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Beat Toledo, 38-24
Sat, Sep 7	Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17
Sat, Sep 14	Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21	Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28	Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12	Beat Arkansas, 24-20
Sat, Oct 19	Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0
Sat, Oct 26	Beat Missouri, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost to Tennessee, 17-13
Sat, Nov 16	Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23	Beat UT Martin, 50-7
Sat, Nov 30	vs Louisville

With three losses in a row now (and only two wins — against Toledo and Eastern Michigan), these guys are looking like they really miss Benny Snell and Josh Allen, not to mention injured quarterback Terry Wilson. The offense could do nothing against the Gamecocks. They still look better than the current version of the Vols, though.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-1 (1-0), 2nd in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Lost to Wyoming, 37-31
Sat, Sep 7	Beat West Virginia, 38-7
Sat, Sep 14	Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0
Sat, Sep 21	Beat South Carolina, 34-14
Sat, Oct 5	Beat Troy, 42-10
Sat, Oct 12	Beat Ole Miss, 38-27
Sat, Oct 19	Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14
Sat, Oct 26	Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16	Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6
Sat, Nov 23	Lost to Tennessee, 24-20
Fri, Nov 29	@ Arkansas

Off this week.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 1-3 (0-2), 6th in the SEC East


Sat, Aug 31	Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7	Lost to Purdue, 42-24
Sat, Sep 21	Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38
Sat, Sep 28	Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18
Sat, Oct 5	Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6
Sat, Oct 12	Lost to UNLV, 34-10
Sat, Oct 19	Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14
Sat, Nov 2	Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9	Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16	Lost to Kentucky, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23	Beat ETSU, 38-0
Sat, Nov 30	@ Tennessee

Not much to be said about that.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

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5 years ago

July 25, 2019 (pre-season): 5.96
August 26, 2019 (after “Week Zero”): 5.92
September 3, 2019 (post-Georgia St.): 3.86
September 9, 2019 (post-BYU): 3.09
September 16, 2019 (post-Chattanooga): 3.61
September 24, 2019 (post-Florida): 2.71
September 30, 2019 (post open date): 2.61

My South Carolina confidence dropped a bit. Everything else stayed the same.

Harley

I was at 3 wins last week… so maintaining my position. Doubt Saturday will change my position much unless it is a lot closer game than expected with good QB play and solid defense… then optimism will reign once again. Go Vols!