The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: After Mississippi State

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

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My assessment

My nutshell assessment of the Vols after the Mississippi State game is that the team is indeed improving, and I think they’re doing it in all of the right places and all of the right ways. With Maurer going out early and Guarantano taking over against the Bulldogs, it does seem to me that the problems aren’t necessarily personnel but, as some of us suspected, just a matter of navigating the learning curve of two new coordinators and a bunch of new players at key positions. I still think that elite teams are going to make the Vols look worse than they really are, but I am feeling much more comfortable against most the second-tier of the SEC East.

Meanwhile, Missouri’s looking good but still has Florida and Georgia looming, and South Carolina looks dangerous. But Kentucky and Vanderbilt look more and more beatable. UAB looks like maybe they deserve to be in the same group as the Wildcats and the Commodores, though, rather than set apart in the feel-good range.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 4.4, up, but by only slightly more than half a game from last week.

• Preseason: 6.55
• After Week 0: 6.6
• After Week 1: 2.87
• After Week 2: 2.37
• After Week 3: 3.65
• After Week 4: 2.9
• After Week 5: 3.25
• After Week 6: 3.85
• After Week 7: 4.4

Details: Alabama remains at 5%. Missouri moves from 25% to 35%, and South Carolina joins them there. Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and UAB all move to 55%, Kentucky and Vanderbilt from 50% and UAB from 75%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-4 (1-2), 5th in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 4-2 (2-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

It’s not accurate to say that the Vols lost to a good team when they lost to Georgia State. But it’s also no longer accurate to say that the Vols lost to a 2-10 Sun Belt team. The Panthers are now 4-2 and 2nd in the Sun Belt East, and they’re better this year than they were last year. They still shouldn’t have beaten the Vols in Neyland Stadium, but maybe they’re actually a little better than we thought.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 2-4 (0-0)

The Cougars led 23-14 heading into the fourth quarter and lost 27-23 to South Florida. They’ve now lost their last three games, the last two of them to unranked teams.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 3-3 (2-0), 2nd in the Southern Conference

Off this week.

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 1st in the SEC East

Played two Top 10 teams in the last two weeks. Beat one at home, lost to the other on the road. LSU looks like the best of the three, but Florida’s still a Top 10 team in my book.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 5-1 (2-1), 3rd in the SEC East

I didn’t see anything but the end of regulation and the two overtimes in this one, but I will say that Georgia had their butts saved at least a couple of times before finally tempting fate a time too many. Credit to the Gamecocks, and this one has to make Vols fans feel worse both about the loss to Georgia and the upcoming game against South Carolina, but it also has a sort of outlier feel to it.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-3 (1-2), 5th in the SEC West

The Vols’ future opponents

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 6-0 (3-0), 1st in the SEC West

Tua’s touchdown-to-interception ratio this season is 27:1. My takeaway from that is that we can get an interception next week as long as we give up 27 touchdowns first.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 3-3 (2-2), 4th in the SEC East

Just beat the No. 3 team in the nation. Currently fourth in the SEC East with two conference losses. On their third quarterback this season already. Okay, then.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 5-1 (2-1), 3rd in C-USA West

I’m sounding the alarm on the UAB Blazers, although nobody’s going to pay any attention. Yes, that’s a nobody schedule, but it’s also a lot of Ws.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 3-3 (1-3), 6th in the SEC East

Some will find it funny that the Arkansas Razorbacks just got beat by a Kentucky team starting a wide receiver at quarterback. For some reason, I don’t think that’s funny at all. Not one single bit.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-1 (2-0), 1st in the SEC East

Don’t look now, but the Missouri Tigers are first in the SEC East. Those back-to-back games against Georgia and Florida in mid-November loom.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 1-5 (0-3), 7th in the SEC East

Oh, my. Halfway through the season and one win, against Northern Illinois. (No, I wouldn’t have written this had the Vols lost to Mississippi State. Why do you ask?)

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?