That Sounds Familiar

So last season, we learned the rhythm of what it takes to make a 12-team playoff. As soon as we got that one down, the tempo changed again: new quarterback, short notice. In theory, that’s always a possibility in this new college football world, and now Tennessee and Joey Aguilar will be the biggest case study for how it might look in reality. But even if you didn’t lose your quarterback at the end of spring practice, reality is changing for every program.

(Which means it’s a good time to turn to one of our most constant sources:)

* The top 12 are now within a TD of each other
* FARMAGEDDON: K-State by 4.8
* Let me tell you about a scrappy underdog named Bama…
* Clemson: Returning production national champ
* Ret prod nat’l avg: 77% in ’21, 53% in ’25

UPDATED 2025 SP+ PROJECTIONS:https://t.co/4UnZgYBXQ8

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) August 14, 2025

If, in four years, the average team has gone from bringing back three-fourths of its production to half, you’re going to get more of the kind of parity that shows up even at the tippy top. Thus the Top 12 teams being within a touchdown of each other in SP+. And the 12th of those 12 is…Tennessee.

How much has changed around here since 2021? In a year with a new quarterback, preseason polls in the 18-24 demographic, and a Vegas win total of 8.5, the dominant fan emotion might be basic curiosity. And yet, Tennessee is still in the conversation. Not because we’re dramatic, but because we’re consistent. Less “will we be any good?”, more “how will we get it done this time?”.

In the last three years, the Vols finished sixth, 17th, and ninth in the AP poll, an average final ranking of 10.7. It’s not quite where we were in the mid-to-late 90s, with an average finish of 5.8 from 1995-99. But if you step back and look at the fullness of who Tennessee was from 1989-2007 – when the Vols spent nearly two decades in the conversation – our average ranking during those years was 10.1.

One reason this kind of consistency may not have set in yet? It got overly familiar around here in a hurry. As in, we’re really good at it:

Top 16 Finishes in Football, Men’s & Women’s Basketball, Baseball & Softball, 2022-23 thru 2024-25

1. Tennessee 13
2. Alabama 10
3. Texas 9
4. Duke 8
5. Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Oregon, UCLA 7

In major college athletics, nobody is better at playing themselves into the championship conversation than Tennessee.

That by itself is amazing, and the context follows suit:

• Only Tennessee and Texas have earned a Top 16 finish in each of these five sports in the last three years
• Only Tennessee and Alabama have earned more than three Top 16 finishes in football and men’s basketball combined in the last three years
• In the three years before covid, Tennessee had only four Top 16 finishes in these five sports (2019 men’s basketball, 2017-19 softball)

And the Vols aren’t just getting to their respective Sweet 16s and bowing out. Men’s basketball had played in one Elite Eight ever three years ago, and now has two in a row. Softball continues to knock knock knock with another semifinal appearance back in June. No such 16-team fun exists in football (yet), but if it did the Vols would’ve been favored to advance with home playoff games in 2022 and 2024. And, of course, we got the big ring in baseball.

The big rings won’t come every time; Danny White spoke on this in his interview with Volquest this week. But, as has long been the cry here, giving yourself a chance to get one? Being in the conversation? That’s the real prize. And as an institution, no one is better at that right now than Tennessee.

So here we go again, 2025-26 kicking off in a blissfully few number of days (in football; in women’s soccer, we’re off and running by beating the number one team in the nation). Tennessee is already one of just 13 programs who would’ve made at least two 16-team playoffs in the last three years; only five programs (Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State) would’ve made all three.

What will we be this fall? I’m not exactly sure, and neither are you. And I’m excited to find out, but that part isn’t new. That part always gets to be true. The why is never threatened.

It’s the how that intrigues me most. The best in the business tend to be the most adaptable (see also: Barnes, Rick). Josh Heupel and Tennessee had a Top 16 finish with an elite passing game in 2022, then another last year with defense and a running back who scored 22 touchdowns.

That guy might be RB1 for the Cleveland Browns, and the defense learned the last time out there is another level we want to get to against the other teams you’ll see when championships are on the line.

So yeah, new quarterback. But new in plenty of other places too, some with a higher ceiling in mind. The Vols will have to adapt. But we’re already good at that.

Maybe it’s fair to say the expectations aren’t ever really new here; at least in football at Tennessee, we’ve been to the mountaintop before.

But what has become warm and familiar once again is our ability to live into them. To chase the championship conversation as well as anyone in the nation.

How will we do it this time? We’ll find out together in just 11 days.

Go Vols.