September 1 will be Tennessee’s 13th season opener against a ranked non-conference foe (thanks, as always, to the folks behind Tennessee’s media guide). Fun fact: five of those were against UCLA, from the first one in 1967 through Peyton Manning’s debut in 1994. The Vols are 5-4-3 in those games overall, most recently splitting a pair with California in 2006-07.
But when you’ve struggled like the Vols in the last decade, you don’t need a ranked opener to raise the stakes. Tennessee has had plenty of tense first tests in the last few years, many of them made so by uncertainty surrounding the head coach. Jeremy Pruitt will get the best kind of uncertainty – new coach, first game – against West Virginia. It’s the first impression, but it’s also a Top 20 opponent some are projecting far higher than that.
How will the first game set the tone for Jeremy Pruitt and 2018? How does it compare to some of the other season openers in recent memory in terms of anticipation and anxiety going in?
Level 1: The Sure Thing
- 2004 UNLV, 1999 & 2002 Wyoming, FCS Opponents
Lane Kiffin, Derek Dooley, and Butch Jones all opened their UT coaching careers with FCS opponents. In FBS/Division 1-A, you have to go back to the special jersey night game against UNLV to find a sure-thing opponent that actually played itself out that way. UAB the following year certainly felt like one going in.
Level 2: The Pseudo-Sure Thing
- 2016 Appalachian State, 2015 Bowling Green, 2008 UCLA, 2007 California
A successful season, or at least a successful finish in the prior year, often creates overconfidence in the season opener. With Butch Jones it was capable mid-majors who were overlooked in part because of massive Week 2 opportunities in Oklahoma and Bristol. Phillip Fulmer’s last two teams opened on the road with Pac-12 opponents, one the Vols torched the year before and one the Clawfense was expected to torch. The lesson: never overlook a team with a pulse in week one.
Level 3: I Have No Idea
- 2000 Southern Miss, 1998 Syracuse, 1994 UCLA
You have to go back almost two decades, but all three of these were some form of rebuild/reload against ranked opponents, two of them on the road. The ’94 Vols were replacing their starting tailback, both wide receivers, and the Heisman runner-up at quarterback. The ’98 Vols were replacing the next Heisman runner-up, along with several key defensive pieces. And in 2000, most of the pieces from that championship run were gone. It was a testament to the strength of Tennessee’s program that the Vols went 2-1 in these games, all of them close. Tennessee’s performance in these openers didn’t necessarily color the entire season (other than Jerry Colquitt’s injury in ’94), but did create a first impression that was ultimately reliable. West Virginia probably goes in this tier: the game shouldn’t be confused for a toss-up with the Vols at +9.5, but we know so little about Tennessee in the midst of starting over I feel like there’s more to learn here than just the outcome.
Level 4: I’m Nervous
- 2017 Georgia Tech, 2014 Utah State, 2003 Fresno State
Disappointing season the year before + opponent you feel like you should beat but not blow out + additional anxiety you know will come if you lose = these openers, the rare kind that can create more anxiety than anticipation. The Vols were solid against Fresno in ’03, surprisingly good against Chuckie Keeton and Utah State in ’14, and we all remember the full spectrum of emotions that came with the Butch Jones experience last year. The stakes for losing a game like this are so high it creates a, “Why did we schedule these guys?” mentality, even though those decisions are made far before we know what kind of anxiety/anticipation we’ll be feeling leading up to kickoff.
Level 5: Everything is on the line!
- 2012 NC State, 2006 California
The ol’ let’s make decisions about the future of the program opener, when a disastrous season the year before and a capable opponent in the first game create a tense situation. The Vols went 2-0 in these games, though one was a false positive. Looking at things this way gives me additional appreciation for what the Vols did to Cal in 2006. It’s the fantasy we’d like to come true every time we play a significant opponent in the season opener; fortunately the West Virginia game doesn’t carry the same burden of the fate of the program at stake.
It’s only the first impression, but it will be a meaningful one for Jeremy Pruitt and this Tennessee team. Where does it rank for you in terms of anticipation and anxiety?
