Let’s go.
How many points will Tennessee have to score to win? In six years at West Virginia, Dana Holgorsen is 53-37. In those 37 losses, the Mountaineers still averaged 24.9 points per game. By comparison, Tennessee went 34-29 the last five years with Butch Jones at the helm. In those 29 losses the Vols averaged only 17.4 points.
You’re not beating West Virginia 14-10. Even a relatively strong performance from Jeremy Pruitt’s defense right out of the gate will probably still require Tennessee’s offense to score more points than it mustered in most of its games last season. After a strong opening against Georgia Tech and Indiana State, the Vols scored more than 24 points just once the rest of 2017 (26 at Kentucky).
Tennessee will need to do something well, then do it consistently on offense to outscore West Virginia. The most likely answer there, as you’d imagine with this match-up, is via the ground game.
How much can Tennessee rely on its ground game? Last year West Virginia was 1-4 when allowing 200+ yards on the ground. The Mountaineers were 99th nationally in yards per carry allowed last season, and were especially susceptible on first down: 5.18 yards per carry allowed, and 48 runs of 10+ yards surrendered (127th nationally). Big plays were readily available on the ground when the defense didn’t know what to expect. Last season West Virginia ranked 100th or worse in 10+ yard runs allowed, 20+ yard runs allowed, etc. all the way through 50+ yard runs allowed.
It’s incredibly important for Tennessee to stay on schedule in this game, not only to protect the quarterback, but to put West Virginia’s defense in positions it struggled to stop last year. This feeds directly into the Vols showing improvement in the things they were very worst at last season: creating big plays (123rd nationally in 20+ yard gains), but also tackles for loss allowed (121st) which leads to a poor third down conversion rate (120th). The Vols must go backward far less to create more 3rd-and-3’s and fewer 3rd-and-7’s. And they have to capitalize in the ground game with both consistency and explosiveness against West Virginia.
A few incompletions can make a huge difference. On the other side of the ball, I think the most telling stat on West Virginia is this: the Mountaineers were 0-6 when completing less than 60% of their passes last year, 7-0 when completing more. Some of the sub-60% numbers include Will Grier’s absence, who was 6-of-8 when he went down against Texas. But in the three losses when he played the whole game:
- Virginia Tech: 31-of-53 (58.5%)
- TCU: 25-of-45 (55.6%)
- Oklahoma State: 20-of-42 (47.6%)
With the possible exception of Oklahoma State, Grier wasn’t bad by any means in these games. He averaged 7-8 yards per attempt against good defenses from Virginia Tech and TCU, with three touchdowns and only one pick in both games. Both teams only sacked him twice; Oklahoma State just once. But all three did enough to disrupt the passing game to win; VT and TCU won by identical 31-24 scores, while Oklahoma State won the 50-39 shootout they’re built for. The Vols under Pruitt are far more likely to follow the Hokie/Horned Frog model.
The path to victory won’t be easy, and there’s so much we simply don’t know about this Tennessee team. But there is indeed a path: find repeated success on the ground and make Grier just uncomfortable enough. Don’t expect to beat West Virginia 14-10, and I’m not sure the Vols are built to beat them 50-39. But opportunity, as they say, is now here. And I’m very excited to see what we’ve got.
Go Vols.
