Beneath all the talk, the rivalry, and the unique circumstances surrounding this year’s Tennessee-Florida game, this is the most important fact: for the fourth year in a row, the Vols have the better team.
The better team doesn’t always win. In 2014 the Vols kept Florida’s offense at bay all day, surrendering only a 30-yard touchdown drive and a 49-yard field goal. But because the Vol offense had a total of seven snaps in the red zone and all seven failed to gain a single yard, the Gators escaped 10-9. In 2015 Tennessee scored to take a 26-14 lead with 10 minutes to play, didn’t go for two, then surrendered conversions on 4th-and-7, 4th-and-8, and 4th-and-14 before poor game management left them with only a 55-yard field goal attempt in one of the five most difficult losses of my lifetime.
Florida got those wins, which is ultimately what matters most. It’s what mattered most for Tennessee last year. But in each of the last three match-ups, the Vols have outperformed the Gators in both total yards and yards per play (with an even turnover margin in each game):
| Plays | Total Yards | Yards Per Play | |
| 2014 TEN | 68 | 233 | 3.43 |
| 2014 FLA | 75 | 232 | 3.09 |
| 2015 TEN | 70 | 419 | 5.99 |
| 2015 FLA | 71 | 392 | 5.52 |
| 2016 TEN | 79 | 498 | 6.30 |
| 2016 FLA | 70 | 402 | 5.74 |
It hasn’t just been on the field. Tennessee out-recruited Florida from 2014-16, and after a setback in the rankings in February, both the Vols and Gators are currently putting together Top 10 classes for 2018:
(Blue chip ratio represents the percentage of each class made up by four-and-five-stars)
| TEN Rank | TEN Blue Chip | FLA Rank | FLA Blue Chip | |
| 2014 | 7 | 50.0% | 9 | 37.5% |
| 2015 | 4 | 53.3% | 21 | 19.0% |
| 2016 | 14 | 43.5% | 12 | 36.0% |
| 2017 | 17 | 17.9% | 11 | 47.8% |
| 2018 | 6 | 43.5% | 7 | 52.9% |
Underneath some perceived friction between Butch Jones and the Tennessee fanbase is the stability Jones has built into the program over the last five years, a stability which may now exceed Florida’s. It’s frustrating to say the Vols really could/should be going for four in a row against the Gators on Saturday and going for their third straight SEC East title this fall. But what’s also true is this may represent the longest stretch of years when Tennessee has had the better team in this rivalry since it became an annual one in 1992. And with a win on Saturday, the Vols will put themselves in an excellent position to extend this run.
The last time Tennessee capitalized on Florida’s instability wasn’t perfect either: the transition from Steve Spurrier to Ron Zook included an incredibly weird and painful shouldn’t-have-happened loss in 2002, but the Vols still won three of four from 2001-04 en route to a pair of east titles. Butch Jones’ Vols can’t get 2014 and 2015 back, but turned the tide in this rivalry in dramatic fashion in 2016. The close losses may still be painful, but the team’s overall performance the last three years, culminating in last season’s signature win, should give Team 121 real confidence going to Gainesville.
Confidence could be Tennessee’s best weapon in this game. The Gators can ride a wave of “nobody believes in us” on Saturday with backups in key roles, the state still recovering, etc. The best way to deal with emotions like that is in businesslike fashion. And Tennessee’s offense has shown early signs that business could be very good this year.
In Tennessee’s advanced statistical profile at Football Study Hall, the Vol offense ranks 56th nationally in explosiveness. Anytime an offense is more explosive, fans have more fun. But attempting to be explosive can be dangerous for a young quarterback with relatively unproven play-makers, especially against a Florida defense. What takes care of business is efficiency, and there the Vols have excelled.
Football Study Hall and S&P+ utilize success rate to measure efficiency: does a team gain 50% of the needed yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth down. By this metric the Vol offense is successful on nearly half of its snaps (49.1%) through two games, 29th nationally. Tennessee has also taken advantage of excellent special teams play, 12th in the nation in average starting field position.
But most impressively, Tennessee’s offense is fifth nationally in finishing drives, measured by points per trip inside the 40 (or, when your team had a 1st-and-10 inside the opponent’s 40 yard line, how often did they score?).
Last week Quinten Dormady threw a terrible interception in the end zone. But every other time the Vols have had 1st-and-10 inside the opponent’s 40 this year, they have scored a touchdown. An average of 6.42 points every time you cross the 40 ranks fifth nationally. That’s impressive no matter who you’ve played.
Larry Scott’s offense is laying down an efficient identity, and that’s exactly what Tennessee needs in Gainesville. The Vols have more talent, more of the right kind of experience through two weeks this fall, and have a chance to be the more stable program coming out of Saturday. With so much uncertainty surrounding this game, I fall back on the simplest answer: Tennessee has the better team. And this time, they’ve already earned their confidence.
Take care of business.
Go Vols.
