The best part about drawing conclusions from today is you don’t really have to: after two years of premature calls on “THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME IN BUTCH JONES’ CAREER!!!!!”, the real thing is coming to Knoxville next Saturday.
This was probably true no matter what Tennessee did today. But a 17-13 win over UMass did nothing to lower the temperature or raise confidence around the program.
Tennessee has a habit of doing something like this against teams like that. I think Appalachian State is a little too good for the comparison, but 28-19 over Ohio, 24-0 over North Texas, 34-19 over Arkansas State and even 31-24 over South Alabama in year one all come to mind. All games against over-matched foes where Tennessee didn’t cover the spread and didn’t seem particularly interested in doing so. I would not recommend this strategy against Southern Miss.
You don’t draw significant conclusions about a coach or a team based on what they do against non-power-five teams, as long as they win those games. But data points like today serve as secondary arguments, doing the Vols and their coach no favors when the primary arguments surround losses as painful as last week.
The next primary data point will roll into Knoxville on Saturday at 3:30, one of the most significant of Butch Jones’ tenure and, at this point, the most important. There will be only one of two conversations by 7:30 or so. We’ll either be talking about Tennessee’s chances in the SEC East, or talking about Butch Jones.
You can come to such a crossroad and make the right turn: Phillip Fulmer did exactly that in the week leading up to this same Georgia game 10 years ago, and the Vols went on to win the division. If Kentucky and Mississippi State find ways to win tonight, a Tennessee victory over Georgia might even make the Vols one of the front-runners.
But a loss will put Tennessee in an almost impossible place in the SEC East with Alabama still on the schedule, and questions will dominate the bye week. I don’t think next week will be a must-win in the eyes of John Currie, not with half the season left to play. But the conversation will become unavoidable for the foreseeable future.
What happened today? Early on Tennessee fumbled, doinked a field goal, and hurt themselves with an offensive pass interference call. All those little things added up to just a 17-6 lead midway through the third quarter, and when UMass immediately responded with their best drive of the day, it was like Tennessee had already put the car in park. The Vols got only two first downs on their next five drives against the Minutemen, which included an appearance from Jarrett Guarantano that did not provide the spark I assume they were looking for.
Tennessee’s defense held UMass to 281 yards and 4.76 yards per play. But Tennessee’s offense managed only 319 yards and was actually worse per play (4.49).
A word on attendance: the announced (paying?) crowd was 95,324. Many of them left early around that 17-6 mark. I always believe attendance is one of the most important ways you take the temperature of the fan base; the group that came and/or paid is still significantly healthier than what we’ve seen recently. Derek Dooley’s 2012 Vols drew only 87,821 after beating NC State to open the season, before things went wrong. They would go on to draw less than 90,000 announced four more times that year.
Tennessee’s program is in a much, much healthier place than that right now. But the thousands of fans who left early won’t be ignored either. Whether they assumed, were angry, or were bored today (plus I’m sure burning up in the heat), dissatisfaction is obvious.
But in the SEC, the opportunity for satisfaction is usually only one week away. Georgia, a team Butch Jones and Tennessee have beaten twice in a row for the first time since 2006-07, will represent the win he has most needed since arriving in Knoxville. Even more than Florida last year, when the Vols were suddenly playing without three of their best four defenders. Injuries are a factor for this year’s team, but they are not yet an excuse.
On the eve of that Florida game last year, we wrote something that continues to hold true for this team and its coaches: Tennessee must believe “the team that makes the fewest mistakes will win” is the first maxim, but not the only one. Timidity begets timidity, and playing not to lose eventually begets losing.
Tennessee has to carry the fight to Georgia. If they do, I also believe confidence begets confidence. This is a talented team. Carry the fight. Because if they don’t, they are likely to find themselves in another painfully close game. That might happen against a good Georgia team anyway. But if you’re Tennessee, you don’t want to just go down swinging at the mercy of two or three plays. You need to come out swinging, and bend those plays to your will in the first quarter instead of the fourth. Be the aggressor. Earn victory.
Big, big week ahead. Carry the fight to Georgia and keep it there for sixty minutes.
Go Vols.
