Earlier this month we showed you Tennessee’s projected record using win probability with ESPN’s FPI and SB Nation’s S&P+. Add up the percentage chance they give the Vols to win each game, and you’ll get their projection for Tennessee’s regular season win total. Then our staff made their picks using win probability, and we gave you a chance to do the same. We’ve added up all the responses: here are your projections for the Vols this year:
| Opponent | Win Probability |
| vs Georgia Tech | 64.92 |
| Indiana State | 98.55 |
| at Florida | 46.78 |
| UMass | 98.24 |
| Georgia | 51.33 |
| South Carolina | 68.63 |
| at Alabama | 15.31 |
| at Kentucky | 68.63 |
| Southern Miss | 89.98 |
| at Missouri | 73.43 |
| LSU | 43.63 |
| Vanderbilt | 74.37 |
| WINS | 7.94 |
Our reader projection is in near-full agreement with ESPN’s FPI projection of 7.91, and is an unsurprising consensus expectation in taking the pulse of the fanbase. 8-4 appears to be this year’s bar with 7-5 a hair more likely than 9-3, but neither should shock.
The game-by-game percentages are interesting in a couple of places. Our readers give the Vols a 65% chance on Monday night, but there’s not much difference in how fans view this game and the South Carolina & Kentucky contests later in the year. The odds go just above 50% against Georgia and just below at Florida, and I wonder how much home field advantage has to do with that. And while most don’t give the Vols a significant chance at Alabama, most do with LSU. Eight of Tennessee’s 12 games fall somewhere between 44-74% in our win probability. That’s a lot of potentially close calls, and should make for another exciting season.
