Tennessee opened this week as a 3.5-point favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats with an over/under of 51.5. If it moved at all this week, it’s right back to where it opened.
Tennessee vs Kentucky, according to Hat Guy
From Kentucky’s perspective
Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 19.4 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:
- Florida 20
- Missouri 23.3
- Georgia 14
- Ball State 29
Kentucky’s points against those teams:
- Florida 33
- Missouri 21
- Georgia 13
- Ball State 44
Kentucky’s offensive premium/discount: 129%
Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 31.6 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:
- Missouri 33.9
- Florida 29.1
- Vanderbilt 27.8
- Georgia 40.1
Kentucky’s defensive performance against those teams:
- Missouri 38
- Florida 14
- Vanderbilt 28
- Georgia 51
Kentucky’s defensive premium/discount: 100%
Estimated score: Kentucky 25.1, Tennessee 31.6
From Tennessee’s perspective
Kentucky’s defense is allowing an average of 23.6 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:
- UTSA 25.1
- Florida 20
- Texas A&M 19.9
- Alabama 16.5
Tennessee’s points against those teams:
- UTSA 45
- Florida 16
- Texas A&M 20
- Alabama 20
Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 124%
Kentucky’s offense is scoring an average of 31.3 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:
- Alabama 30.6
- Texas A&M 32.3
- Florida 29.1
- UTSA 29
Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:
- Alabama 34
- Texas A&M 13
- Florida 29
- UTSA 14
Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 74%
Estimated score: Tennessee 29.2, Kentucky 23.2
Combined Estimated Score
SPM Final Estimates
Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:
| Home | Home Points | Away | Away Points | Favorite | Spread | Home RY | Away RY | Home PY | Away PY |
| Kentucky | 24.2 | Tennessee | 30.4 | Tennessee | -6.2 | 144.6 | 156.7 | 160.1 | 229.8 |
Hat Guy likes the Vols to win and cover this weekend. He disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 2.7 points. He also likes the over.
Guts and Eyeballs
That actually looks about right to me, to be honest. The fact that it is at Kentucky and Tennessee will be dealing with replacing Kamal Hadden adds some anxiety to the mix.
Other predictions from other systems
Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Tennessee 27, Kentucky 24. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Tennessee 26, Kentucky 25 (Vols -1).
Bottom line
- Vegas opening: Tennessee -3.5 (~Vols 27, Cats 24)
- Vegas current: Same
- Hat Guy: Tennessee -6.2 (Vols 30.4, Cats 24.2) (Vols cover)
- SP+: Tennessee -1 (Vols 26, Cats 25) (Vols do not cover)
- Guts and Eyeballs: Tennessee -6 (Vols 30, Cats 24)
What do y’all think?
