Thanks to all who submitted an entry in our Expected Win Total Machine this week – if you’re new to our site, we run it each Monday during the season. This week, our community projects the Vols to win 8.54 regular season games. That’s up from 8.03 in the preseason and 7.93 after Ball State.
A few things I found interesting about the conversation this week:
Which is more likely, 8-4 or 9-3?
Again, the conversation here is tying the best regular season of the last 15 years, or besting it. Good company either way. As is the case with much of the verbiage this week, beating Pitt accomplishes some things, but not all things. Beating Florida will accomplish more.
This week, we’re split down the middle on those two outcomes. 9-3 gets an ever-so-slight edge for now. But these projections can look a lot different in just a few weeks; so much of the conversation with Tennessee is about the schedule.
Fans view Florida, LSU, and Kentucky almost exactly the same
All due respect to the Akron Zips, who are somewhere between 47 and 50-point underdogs coming in tomorrow night. For context, the Vols were somewhere between 24.5 and 27-point favorites against Georgia State in 2019, Wyoming in 2008, and Memphis in 1996. This is twice-as-bad territory. Players and coaches don’t want the lookahead, and that’s great. I think we’ll be okay.
Beyond Akron, the Vols have a telling stretch, but with some key space between: Florida, bye week, at LSU, Alabama, Tennessee-Martin, then Kentucky. Georgia’s next, of course. But if you want the big goals, I’d start with having a chance to take the lead in the SEC East when we go to Athens, instead of, “Can we beat Georgia?!”
To get to Athens with first place on the line, the Vols can go through Florida, LSU, and Kentucky. Do that, and it doesn’t matter if you beat Alabama or not. Again, this is the long game, and how we view it will change some between now and then.
For now, Tennessee fans view those three games – Florida, LSU, and Kentucky – almost exactly the same way:
- Florida: 60.4% chance of victory
- at LSU: 58.1%
- Kentucky: 59.2%
Whatever we may say about the Kentucky series out loud, credit the Wildcats for earning enough respect – even without a handful of head-to-head wins over UT – to be considered in the same way the Gators and Tigers are. Put those three together, and fans give the Vols 1.78 wins in those three games. Go 2-1 in that stretch, and 9-3 starts looking like the favorite.
Tennessee’s Schedule = Opportunity in the National Conversation
Over at ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, the Vols have the eighth best odds to make the College Football Playoff. Again, this is far more than a reflection of beating Pitt at overtime. If you’re looking for who can build the best resume, you start with teams who might be good who also play both Alabama and Georgia.
Even an 11-1 Tennessee would have a very compelling playoff argument. But, by our own admissions, we’re nowhere near that conversation yet. We’ve got the Vols at 8.5 wins at the moment. 9-3 would remain new territory for this program in the last 15 years. One thing, one win at a time.
Bowl projections work in similar fashion. When you see Tennessee projected to go to the Sugar Bowl, that’s exclusively an outcome tied to both Georgia and Alabama making the playoff. If they do, great! That means the third-best SEC team is going to New Orleans, and with Texas A&M out of that conversation for now, the Vols are certainly in it. So is Arkansas, and Ole Miss. And a handful of teams the Vols will see head-to-head.
Again: we’re at 8.5 wins this week. Stay tuned.
One difference I’m finding with this team in the national conversation: the last time the Vols entered this dialogue was 2016, and we had a whole year worth of, “We’re good!” in our sails. The 2016 team was built on being very close to very good in 2015: close losses to playoff teams, etc. We had a whole year of belief built on what that team almost was, which paid off for around six weeks in 2016 before things fell apart.
The 2022 Vols look even better on paper, in a world where “on paper” = “an excel spreadsheet.”
The Vols are also at eighth on that list, loved fairly equally by each of those models. Play-for-play, the 2022 Vols continue to perform at the highest level we’ve seen in Knoxville in the last 15 years. But so far those plays have only added up to a win over Pittsburgh. Again, there can be much more down this path very soon.
These are exciting days around here, and still quite rare among the last 15 years. The opponent next week will get all the focus, regardless of records and projections. Beat Florida, and so much more will open up for the Vols.
But even from here, the long game looks good. It’s not Sugar Bowl! Playoffs! SEC East Champs! yet. But it’s still on track to have a chance to be one of the best seasons we’ve seen around here in a long time.
Big things are coming, and coming soon.
Go Vols.
