It’s Post-Game Monday, which means that it’s time to re-assess our expected win totals in light of what happened this past weekend. You can submit your own ballot at the GRT Expected Win Total Machine page. Here’s how everything shakes out for me.
My assessment
As we said on the GRT Podcast this week, the Vols’ 31-27 win over the Gamecocks was a Big, Beautiful Ugly. There are some things that the team definitely needs to get corrected — third down conversions, defending the slant route, etc. — but there were glimpses of something special, and the team did avoid blowing up in an upset minefield.
My expected win total for this season is now 5.8.
Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:
- Preseason: 5.4
- After South Carolina: 5.8
Details: I have Vanderbilt at 90%, Arkansas at 80%, Missouri and Kentucky at 70%, A&M at 50%, Georgia and Auburn at 40%
Here’s a table with my expectations this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ South Carolina | W | 31-27 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs Missouri | W | 35-12 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 3 Georgia | L | 44-21 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Kentucky | L | 34-7 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | vs 2 Alabama | L | 48-17 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ Arkansas | L | 24-13 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ 23 Auburn | L | 30-17 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs 6 Florida | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | vs 5 Texas A&M | ||
| Sat, Dec 19 | @ Vanderbilt (??) |
The Vols’ future opponents
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 0-1 (0-1), T-4th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 2 Alabama | L | 38-19 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 21 Tennessee | L | 35-12 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 17 LSU | W | 45-41 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Vanderbilt | Postponed | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | vs Kentucky | W | 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ 10 Florida | L | 41-17 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs 5 Georgia | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ South Carolina | W | 17-10 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 41-0 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs Arkansas | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 |
There is no shame in losing to an already-humming Alabama team. I feel pretty much the same about Missouri as I did last week, so I’m keeping them at 70%.
Georgia
Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Arkansas | W | 37-10 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 7 Auburn | W | 27-6 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs 14 Tennessee | W | 44-21 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ 2 Alabama | L | 41-24 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ Kentucky | W | 14-3 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 8 Florida | L | 44-28 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Missouri | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Mississippi State | W | 31-24 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ South Carolina | W | 45-16 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs Vanderbilt |
So, 37-10 looks better on Monday than it did during the game on Saturday. Georgia’s offense is having problems, and, in my opinion, it has more to do with the offensive line than anything else. I also think that is hard to fix in-season. Still, I am moving them only slightly toward the green, from 35% to 40%.
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 0-1 (0-1), T-4th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ 8 Auburn | L | 29-13 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs Ole Miss | L | 42-41 (OT) |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs Mississippi State | W | 24-2 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ Tennessee | W | 34-7 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Missouri | L | 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs 5 Georgia | L | 14-3 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 38-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ 1 Alabama | L | 63-3 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ 6 Florida | L | 34-10 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs South Carolina |
It’s hard to say what to do with this information. You feel better about Kentucky, but worse about Auburn. Maybe. For now, I’m changing Kentucky from 60% to 70%.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Missouri | W | 38-19 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 13 Texas A&M | W | 52-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ Ole Miss | W | 63-48 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs 3 Georgia | W | 41-24 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Tennessee | W | 48-17 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Mississippi State | W | 41-0 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ LSU | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Kentucky | W | 63-3 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs 22 Auburn | W | 42-13 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Arkansas |
I had Alabama at 25%, but I’m moving them down to only 20%. The way they looked like they hadn’t missed a beat, that may still be too high.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Current record: 0-1 (0-1), T-5th in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 4 Georgia | L | 37-10 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 16 Mississippi State | W | 21-14 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 13 Auburn | L | 30-28 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Ole Miss | W | 33-21 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ 8 Texas A&M | L | 42-31 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs Tennessee | W | 24-13 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ 6 Florida | L | 63-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs LSU | L | 27-24 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Missouri |
These guys looked better earlier than I thought they would, so I’m moving them from 90% to 80%.
Texas A&M
Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 17-12 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 2 Alabama | L | 52-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs 4 Florida | W | 41-38 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ Mississippi State | W | 28-14 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Arkansas | W | 42-31 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ South Carolina | W | 48-3 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Ole Miss | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs LSU | W | 20-7 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ 22 Auburn | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | @ Tennessee |
We have the same problem with Texas A&M/Vanderbilt as we do with Kentucky-Auburn. For now, I’m docking A&M more than giving Vandy credit. I’m moving the Aggies from 40% to 50%.
Auburn Tigers
Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 23 Kentucky | W | 29-13 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 4 Georgia | L | 27-6 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs Arkansas | W | 30-28 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ South Carolina | L | 30-22 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Ole Miss | W | 35-28 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs LSU | W | 48-11 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Tennessee | W | 30-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ 1 Alabama | L | 42-13 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs 5 Texas A&M | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | @ Mississippi State |
See Kentucky above. I’m keeping the Tigers where they were, at 40%.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 0-1 (0-1), T-4th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ 10 Texas A&M | L | 17-12 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 20 LSU | L | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs South Carolina | L | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Ole Miss | L | 54-21 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ Mississippi State | L | 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Kentucky | L | 38-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs 6 Florida | L | 38-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ Missouri | L | 41-0 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ 9 Georgia | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | ??? |
See A&M above. I’m keeping the Commodores where they were, at 90% for now.
Florida Gators
Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Ole Miss | W | 51-35 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs South Carolina | W | 38-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 21 Texas A&M | L | 41-38 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | Missouri | W | 41-17 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 5 Georgia | W | 44-28 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs Arkansas | W | 63-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 38-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs Kentucky | W | 34-10 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Tennessee | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | vs LSU |
Oof. These guys look maybe as tough as Alabama. Moving them from 30% to 20%.
What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now? You can post your current thoughts and details here, but don’t forget to submit your ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.