(furiously deletes 700 words on the Music City Bowl)
Actually, let me say this: Nashville’s bowl runs a good show. I went in 2010 and really enjoyed it (until the end, of course). I think it’s good for the state to have the Music City Bowl do well. And there are seasons in rebuild mode when it really isn’t a bad destination for the Vols, like 2010.
That just wasn’t the case when the Gator Bowl was a realistic possibility, which it has been since Tennessee beat South Carolina, or a rightful one, which it has been since Tennessee finished a 6-1 run to end the regular season.
And now, after much deliberation and plenty of false starts:
Here’s what I wrote when it looked like Nashville:
The Music City Bowl is not as prestigious as the Gator Bowl, full stop. It may be more desirable to individual fans depending on where you live, it may pay a little more, and it may create a nice recruiting setup in the mid-state. And a bowl can change its own fate – see the Peach Bowl, once a sign of a disappointing season at UT, now a New Year’s Six bowl – and perhaps Nashville will earn that reputation. None of that changes the prestige of January vs December 30, or the fact that Nashville’s bowl is 21 years old and Jacksonville’s has been played since the end of World War II.
It looked like the Vols were just going to be on the wrong side of bad luck. There’s no argument for Kentucky as a more deserving or desirable option than Tennessee in a vacuum. But in 2019, circumstances appeared to be working for the Cats and against the Vols. The Gator Bowl took an ACC team three years in a row and was contractually obligated, whatever that’s worth, to take a Big Ten team. Because of the final College Football Playoff rankings, Indiana was the best available option. In any other year of the last six, Indiana and Kentucky play in Nashville. But with the Music City obligated to an ACC team on the other half of their deal with Jacksonville, and Louisville being a good fit there…we didn’t have to like Nashville, but it at least made sense.
The Vols also just missed the Outback Bowl by 10-3 Wisconsin staying at #8 in the final College Football Playoff poll and Penn State staying ahead of an Auburn team that beat Oregon and Alabama. If the New Year’s Six used the AP poll instead, #9 Auburn would be in the Cotton Bowl, Alabama in the Citrus Bowl, and the Vols in the Outback Bowl. Instead, we have three Big Ten teams in the New Year’s Six and the SEC’s teams going down a peg.
But the Vols didn’t fall any further than that, earning the January bid to Jacksonville at the 11th hour and 58th minute. And here’s something we can say with greater certainty now: even if the Vols beat Georgia State and BYU to open the year, they’re probably still playing Indiana in the Gator Bowl. Tennessee would be ranked, but still in the Group of Six and still less deserving than Auburn. You’d always prefer to be 9-3 than 7-5, but perhaps the Vols learned a few things along the way this season that will prove to be more valuable than a pair of early escapes would’ve revealed.
Also: now we’re in-between two scenarios. The Outback Bowl was desirable not just for its own prestige, but a shot at a ranked opponent like Minnesota. Tennessee is hot, and did beat three bowl-bound teams plus 6-6 Missouri in this run. But the Vols only faced three ranked teams this season. Via the media guide, that hasn’t happened to Tennessee since 2003 (#17 Florida, #8 Georgia, #6 Miami). Tennessee would’ve been an underdog to the Golden Gophers by around eight points in SP+. It’s a bigger ask on a question this team hasn’t answered yet.
On the other hand, play Louisville in the Music City, and you’re likely a big favorite (around -10 in SP+). Given what our friends from Kentucky just did to them, you have little to gain here.
Instead, it’s Indiana. The name doesn’t do much traditionally in football, but the 8-4 Hoosiers would be a four-point favorite in SP+. It’s an also receiving votes bowl in the Coaches’ Poll; a great performance from either team could earn them a ranked finish.
It’s not a huge opportunity to level up like the Outback Bowl. But Indiana would likely be Tennessee’s best win this season. It’s the right bowl, and the right opportunity.
And it’s January, in primetime, the only game happening on the evening of January 2. This Tennessee team, led by its seniors, has given the program hope when it seemed furthest away. They can be forever tied to a turnaround if the Vols to follow in the 2020’s continue down this path. The Gator Bowl can be a bridge. I’m thrilled to see if they can cross it.
See you in the new year.
