In the last 30 years, 13 Vol quarterbacks have attempted at least 250 passes as a multi-game starter. Right in the middle of that list is Jarrett Guarantano, who has now thrown 753 passes in a Tennessee uniform. The six quarterbacks in front of him are record-setters and/or champions of one kind or another: Manning, Clausen, Ainge, Dobbs, Bray, Kelly. Not far behind him are Tee Martin and Heath Shuler, who started for only two years. And the rest of the list is filled with guys who won, lost, and in some cases re-won the starting job: Matt Simms, Rick Clausen, Justin Worley, and Jonathan Crompton.
It’s Crompton who feels like the closest comparison to Guarantano a lot of times. Where Guarantano has mixed and matched good and bad in his career, Crompton felt like all of the latter before a stunning transformation to the former. He was at the helm of the Clawfense, which guaranteed his numbers would suffer in comparison. And before that Georgia game, now 11 years old, Crompton’s bad in that offense felt worse than anything I’d seen before.
So there’s a temptation, after losing 34-7 to Kentucky in Knoxville, to throw that “accolade” on Guarantano, especially when it follows the second half at Georgia, and Georgia followed up by surrendering 41 points to Alabama. At 753 pass attempts, we have plenty of data on JG. And it can feel like we keep banging our heads against the same wall.
But over the full course of those 753 pass attempts, Guarantano isn’t the worst we’ve ever seen. In fact, he’s among the top five of those thirteen quarterbacks in the stats that cause the most frustration (data via SportSource Analytics and Sports Reference).
In touchdown-to-interception ratio, Guarantano is fifth among those thirteen QBs, behind Shuler, Manning, Bray, and Casey Clausen. Guarantano has 36 touchdown passes to 16 interceptions, adding three to his total in the last six quarters. “He’s just not accurate,” is a common complaint, especially after struggling so mightily on third down early this season. But in completion percentage, Guarantano (61.2%) is fourth on that list behind Manning, Shuler, and Dobbs.
In yards per attempt, a holier grail than many quarterback statistics, Guarantano is fifth behind Manning, Bray, Shuler, and Martin.
And in interceptions per attempt…Guarantano is first. Not as in worst. As in best: Guarantano has thrown 16 interceptions in 753 attempts, firing one on 2.12% of his passes. Heath Shuler threw 12 in 513 attempts, 2.34%. Peyton Manning threw 33 in 1,381 attempts, 2.39%.
Take his entire career or even his entire season this year, and Guarantano’s numbers are solid. So why do we feel like things are so bad?
I think Guarantano’s problems remind me most of the Arian Foster conversation: “He fumbles all the time!” Which wasn’t true. But his fumbles often came at the worst possible times in critical moments: at the goal line against South Carolina in 2005, a scoop and score in the Outback Bowl against Penn State, another against Florida in a one possession game in 2007, inside the five at UCLA in 2008, one more scoop and score at Auburn a few weeks later. That’s five fumbles in four years, but it was enough to plant the idea in the minds of many.
Guarantano doesn’t turn it over all the time; as interceptions go, he turns it over less than any long-term Tennessee starter in at least the last 30 years.
But when he does turn it over, he has a habit of doing it in bunches and bad moments.
I looked up each of his 16 interceptions. I added the first two from his freshman year for completion’s sake, but I wouldn’t judge him too harshly by what he did in 2017. But starting with the Florida game in 2018 – in something that just felt like unique bad luck at the time – you’ll notice a pattern:
Jarrett Guarantano’s Career Interceptions
1. 2017 Alabama: Intercepted in the end zone (Vols down 38-7)
2. 2017 Vanderbilt: First play of the drive (Vols down 35-17)
3-4. 2018 Florida: Strip sack on the opening drive, intercepted at the Tennessee 12 yard line on the next drive to help Florida take a 14-0 lead. Intercepted on the first play of the drive in the third quarter (Vols down 33-6).
5. 2018 Vanderbilt: Last drive of the first half (Vols down 17-0)
6. 2019 Georgia State: Fumble on pass in the flat on the second play of the game (not his fault?), strip sack at midfield on the drive following Georgia State taking a 28-23 lead, sack and interception on the first two plays of the drive when Georgia State led 35-23.
7. 2019 BYU: Third play of the third quarter at the UT 31 yard line
8-9. 2019 Florida: Intercepted in the end zone (Jennings bobbled), then intercepted at midfield, both with Florida leading only 7-0
10. 2019 UAB: Intercepted in the end zone (Vols led 23-0)
11. 2019 Vanderbilt: Intercepted on the opening drive
12-13. 2019 Indiana: Intercepted on the last drive of the first half, then pick-sixed on UT’s second play of the third quarter
14. 2020 Georgia: Strip sack to open the third quarter, interception at the UT 32 three plays later, scoop and score in the fourth quarter
15-16. 2020 Kentucky: Fumble at the Kentucky 26, pick six on the next drive, pick six on the following drive.
Throw in the goal line scoop and score at Alabama last year, and you’ve got a mess here.
Of Guarantano’s 16 interceptions:
- Three in the end zone
- Seven within the first three plays of the drive, which usually means bad field position
- Three pick sixes, all in the last five games
Six different times, Guarantano has been involved with turnovers on consecutive drives: 2018 Florida, 2019 Georgia State, 2019 Florida, 2019 Indiana, 2020 Georgia, and 2020 Kentucky. When it rains, we drown (or become the only team to come back from down 13 with less than five minutes to play all year).
The stakes were higher for Arian Foster, who was surrounded by more talent. You can chicken/egg that sentence. These turnovers don’t all fall at the feet of Jarrett Guarantano, who has taken a ton of punishment over his career and is still seeing his guys struggle with pass protection in front of him.
Guarantano doesn’t throw a lot of interceptions. But he doesn’t throw a lot of harmless ones either. And that has repeatedly put the Vols in bad positions they’re usually not capable of overcoming.
I don’t know that any version of this Tennessee team is capable of overcoming Alabama, though I like their odds better a week before kickoff than I did last year, and they certainly had their chances then. I don’t know for sure what you do after that, or how you feel about Harrison Bailey with no spring practice and little fall camp. At this point in his career, I think it’s best to accept Guarantano for who he is, and what he can and can’t do. He’s actually statistically better at not throwing interceptions than any Tennessee starter of my generation. But when it gets away from him, it really gets away. What does Jeremy Pruitt do at quarterback to keep things from getting away from the Vols this year? We’ll find out more on Saturday.