You hear a lot about a team’s offense being on- or off-schedule. It’s a substitute metaphor for whether the team is behind or ahead of the chains. In other words, it’s a shorthand description of the odds the offense is going to be able to keep possession of the ball given the particular down-and-distance facing the offense at the time.
It’s easier for an offense to be successful when it is on-schedule. Conversely, one of the main symptoms of a struggling offense is being off-schedule too often.
With that in mind, I wanted to see just how often the Vols’ offense is off-schedule and how often it is on-schedule. Here’s what I found, using the following criteria:
- On-schedule: First-and-10 or less, second-and-5 or less, third-and-3 or less;
- Off-schedule: First-and-11 or more, second-and-6 or more, third-and-4 or more, fourth downs
The Vols’ offense has lined up 395 times so far this season. Of those plays, slightly more than half of them have been off-schedule or behind-the-chain plays where the offense is facing more than an optimal yards-to-gain to earn a first down.
At this point, I do not have data from any other teams with which to compare, so it’s unclear whether or just how bad this might be. I suspect it’s pretty bad.
And here’s why that 50/50 total plays on/off schedule chart is probably bad. Even bad teams get a ton of free first-and-10 on-schedule plays because every series starts with one.
This chart suggests that things are going off the rails for the Vols right out of the gate on first down. Only 24% of the Vols’ second downs were on-schedule, meaning 5 yards or less to go. Over 75% were 6 yards or more to go. The current average is second-and-8.
As you might expect, it doesn’t get much better on third down. Over five games, Tennessee’s offense has had only 20 on-schedule third down plays. On average, when the Vols get to third down, they’re facing third-and-7.
I’m currently recording any fourth down as being off-schedule, although I suppose there is an argument for fourth-and-1 being on-schedule. The Vols have had 10 of those. The average yards-to-gain on fourth down, though, is 8.
Conclusion
Again, I can’t say just how bad this is without comparing it to other teams, but it does seem clear that the Vols’ offense is having real problems right out of the gate on first down, averaging only 2 yards.
