Among the many things we still haven’t mastered in college football world: large proclamations about next season, made around 10 days before this season starts. “This is June content!!!”, screamed the old blogger.
Even so, I’m still a sucker for a good hypothetical scheduling conversation. So, how might we expect Tennessee to do against a nine-game SEC schedule, with the league also keeping the one Big Ten/ACC/Big 12/Notre Dame requirement?
Here’s what history suggests.
I’ve included all the data at the bottom of this post, but we’re going to start with what I think is the most realistic and healthiest version of this idea.
If we’re looking for what to expect from Tennessee, I think it’s most helpful to look at the years when Tennessee was behaving like, you know, Tennessee. That’s far more expansive than a few years in the mid-to-late-90s. But as it relates to the Vols in the conversation, I’d take out 2008-14, and 2017-21. One thing we don’t talk about as often these days because we’re busy enjoying the ceiling: I think the current administration at UT has raised our floor. I don’t expect the Vols to go through four coaches in six years again as they did from 2008-14, and I don’t expect the bottoming out we saw in 2017-18 or the covid weirdness of 2020.
If you take those years out, we’re left with 21 of the 33 seasons since the SEC expanded to divisional play in 1992:
- 1992-2007, Tennessee’s extended run from Johnny Majors through Phillip Fulmer
- 2015 and 2016, two rebuilt and competitive seasons under Butch Jones
- 2022-2024, everything after year one under Josh Heupel
In those 21 seasons, Tennessee went 121-47 in the SEC (regular season), a .720 winning percentage. If you play that same percentage out for nine games, that’s an average of 6.48 regular season conference wins.
In that same stretch, the Vols went 15-6 against their marquee regular season non-conference opponent, a similar winning percentage of .714. So, if we were using the ol’ win total machine, we’d add another .714 wins to that 6.48 average. Then let’s assume the Vols go 2-0 in their remaining two lower-level games.
So the past tells us that, in the years when Tennessee is healthy and nationally competitive, the Vols would historically average around 9.2 regular season wins with a nine-game SEC schedule and one additional power conference opponent.
That feels right to me: most importantly, an annual expectation that you’re in a 16-team playoff conversation, with 10-2 slightly more likely than 8-4. And that kind of number helps me feel more at home with this kind of schedule going forward…along with a celebration of getting to play every team in this league twice in four years.
The science is inexact, of course; if someone smarter than me makes their way to this post and wants to quantify Tennessee’s average strength of schedule in the past to what we might see going forward in a meaningful way, go for it. But in the national conversation, don’t let Tennessee’s “easier” schedule last year and this blind you to the fact that the Vols have played Alabama, Florida, and Georgia every single season since 1992, while still scheduling a premier non-conference slate for most of that time. Either way, I like how this historical comparison helps show how championship competitiveness can still be the goal for Tennessee going forward.
Other versions of this data:
- Total Data 1992-2024: .571 SEC winning percentage, .563 major non-conf winning pct., 7.7 projected wins
- Peak Data 1993-2001: .819 SEC winning pct, .889 major non-conf winning pct., 10.26 projected wins
- Josh Heupel Data 2021-2024: .625 SEC winning pct., .750 major non-conf winning pct., 8.38 projected wins
