Hat Guy's expectations for the Vols' 2023 season: UPDATED (post-UConn)

Tennessee got a step closer to regaining control of its own destiny in the SEC East as Arkansas did us the favor of giving the Florida Gators another loss this weekend. Missouri failed to pull off the upset against the Georgia Bulldogs, but there’s still one more chance for someone to help the Vols in that department this weekend. Meanwhile, Tennessee needs to take care of its own business in two tough games the next two weekends. Here are the current SEC East standings:


Georgia	8-0
Missouri	5-2
Tennessee	3-4
Kentucky	3-5
Florida	3-5
South Carolina	3-5
Vanderbilt	0-7

As of Week 11, here’s what needs to happen for the Vols to get to the top of that list:

Tennessee wins out. This would put the Vols at 6-2 in conference play. Georgia would have one loss, to the Vols.
Georgia loses to Ole Miss this weekend. Missouri couldn’t upset the Dawgs Saturday, but Lane Kiffin and the No. 10 Ole Miss Rebels come to town to try it this week. Georgia is an 11.5-point favorite. Hat Guy has the Dawgs as 10-point favorites, SP+ -13.5. That game is Saturday at 7:00 PM on ESPN.

Can Tennessee win out?

What are the odds of the Vols winning out? Here’s how Hat Guy has done so far this year and how he views the possibilities.

	Preseason	W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6 (Bye)	W7	W8	W9	W10	W11	W12
VA	TN -36	TN 49-13
AP			TN 30-13
FL			TN -13	FL 29-16
UTSA				TN -8	TN 45-14
SC					TN -15	TN 41-20
TAMU						TAMU -14	TN -1.5	TN 20-13
AL						AL -7	AL -3.8	TN -2.1	AL 34-20
KY						KY -8	TN -7.7	TN -10.7	TN -6.2	TN 33-27
UCONN						TN -32	TN -28	TN -26	TN -25.1	TN -21.7	TN 59-3
MO						MO -3	TN -10.5	TN -4.2	MO -2.6	MO -1.6	TN -2.4	GA 36-7
GA						GA -6	GA -8.8	GA -6.3	GA -9.3	GA -13.3	GA -8.1	GA -15.4	GA 38-10
VAN						TN -17	TN -26.9	TN -25.7	TN -22.9	TN -29.8	TN -27.9		TN -26.6

Hat Guy has changed his mind three times about the Missouri game, but with the exception of one week, he’s always thought it was going to be close. Vegas currently has the Vols as 1- to 1.5-point favorites. Win a close one against the Tigers and have Ole Miss upset Georgia, and next week shapes up as a showdown for the SEC East. Georgia is still a heavy favorite in that one, but let’s get through this weekend and then get the Dawgs to Neyland and see what happens.

For reference, here are the records and schedules for the Vols and their future and past opponents:

Tennessee Volunteers


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	vs	Virginia	W	49-13	1-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	Austin Peay	W	30-13	2-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	@	Florida	L	29-16	2-1 (0-1)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	UTSA	W	45-14	3-1 (0-1)
Sat, Sep 30	vs	South Carolina	W	41-20	4-1 (1-1)
Sat, Oct 14	vs	Texas A&M	W	20-13	5-1 (2-1)
Sat, Oct 21	@	11 Alabama	L	34-20	5-2 (2-2)
Sat, Oct 28	@	Kentucky	W	33-27	6-2 (3-2)
Sat, Nov 4	vs	UConn	W	59-3	7-2 (3-2)
Sat, Nov 11	@	14 Missouri	L	36-7	7-3 (3-3)
Sat, Nov 18	vs	1 Georgia	L	38-10	7-4 (3-4)
Sat, Nov 25	vs	Vanderbilt		3:30 PM	SECN

Argh. I hate Florida. And the fact that we count cross-divisional games to determine divisional standings. Don’t worry — I’ll change my tune if Ole Miss comes through this weekend.

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Thu, Aug 31	vs	South Dakota	W	35-10	1-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	Middle Tennessee	W	23-19	2-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	vs	15 Kansas State	W	30-27	3-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	Memphis	W	34-27	4-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 30	@	Vanderbilt	W	38-21	5-0 (1-0)
Sat, Oct 7	vs	23 LSU	L	49-39	5-1 (1-1)
Sat, Oct 14	@	24 Kentucky	W	38-21	6-1 (2-1)
Sat, Oct 21	vs	South Carolina	W	34-12	7-1 (3-1)
Sat, Nov 4	@	2 Georgia	L	30-21	7-2 (3-2)
Sat, Nov 11	vs	13 Tennessee	W	36-7	8-2 (4-2)
Sat, Nov 18	vs	Florida	W	33-31	9-2 (5-2)
Fri, Nov 24	@	Arkansas		4:00 PM	CBS

In classic good news/bad news, the Tigers played Georgia tough, meaning Georgia is not invulnerable to either Ole Miss or Tennessee, but also meaning that Missouri is going to be a difficult opponent for the Vols this week.

Georgia


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	vs	UT Martin	W	48-7	1-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	Ball State	W	45-3	2-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	vs	South Carolina	W	24-14	3-0 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	UAB	W	49-21	4-0 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 30	@	Auburn	W	27-20	5-0 (2-0)
Sat, Oct 7	vs	20 Kentucky	W	51-13	6-0 (3-0)
Sat, Oct 14	@	Vanderbilt	W	37-20	7-0 (4-0)
Sat, Oct 28	vs	Florida	W	43-20	8-0 (5-0)
Sat, Nov 4	vs	12 Missouri	W	30-21	9-0 (6-0)
Sat, Nov 11	vs	9 Ole Miss	W	52-17	10-0 (7-0)
Sat, Nov 18	@	18 Tennessee	W	38-10	11-0 (8-0)
Sat, Nov 25	@	Georgia Tech		7:30 PM	ABC
Sat, Dec 2	vs	8 Alabama		4:00 PM	CBS

Vanderbilt


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Aug 26	vs	Hawai'i	W	35-28	1-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 2	vs	Alabama A&M	W	47-13	2-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	@	Wake Forest	L	36-20	2-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	@	UNLV	L	40-37	2-2 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	Kentucky	L	45-28	2-3 (0-1)
Sat, Sep 30	vs	23 Missouri	L	38-21	2-4 (0-2)
Sat, Oct 7	@	Florida	L	38-14	2-5 (0-3)
Sat, Oct 14	vs	1 Georgia	L	37-20	2-6 (0-4)
Sat, Oct 28	@	12 Ole Miss	L	33-7	2-7 (0-5)
Sat, Nov 4	vs	Auburn	L	31-15	2-8 (0-6)
Sat, Nov 11	@	South Carolina	L	47-6	2-9 (0-7)
Sat, Nov 25	@	18 Tennessee		3:30 PM	SECN

The Vols’ past opponents

Virginia


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	vs	12 Tennessee	L	49-13	0-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	James Madison	L	36-35	0-2 (0-0)
Fri, Sep 15	@	Maryland	L	42-14	0-3 (0-0)
Fri, Sep 22	vs	NC State	L	24-21	0-4 (0-1)
Sat, Sep 30	@	Boston College	L	27-24	0-5 (0-2)
Sat, Oct 7	vs	William & Mary	W	27-13	1-5 (0-2)
Sat, Oct 21	@	10 North Carolina	W	31-27	2-5 (1-2)
Sat, Oct 28	@	Miami	L	29-26 OT	2-6 (1-3)
Sat, Nov 4	vs	Georgia Tech	L	45-17	2-7 (1-4)
Thu, Nov 9	@	11 Louisville	L	31-24	2-8 (1-5)
Sat, Nov 18	vs	Duke	W	30-27	3-8 (2-5)
Sat, Nov 25	vs	Virginia Tech		3:30 PM	ACCN

Austin Peay


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	@	Southern Illinois	L	49-23	0-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	@	9 Tennessee	L	30-13	0-2 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	vs	East Tennessee State	W	63-3	1-2 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 23	@	Stephen F. Austin	W	22-20	2-2 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 30	@	Lindenwood	W	52-10	3-2 (1-0)
Sat, Oct 14	vs	Gardner-Webb	W	41-14	4-2 (1-0)
Sat, Oct 21	@	Southern Utah	W	48-45 2OT	5-2 (2-0)
Sat, Oct 28	vs	North Alabama	W	49-39	6-2 (3-0)
Sat, Nov 4	@	Eastern Kentucky	W	33-30 OT	7-2 (4-0)
Sat, Nov 11	vs	Utah Tech	W	30-17	8-2 (5-0)
Sat, Nov 18	vs	Central Arkansas	W	14-12	9-2 (6-0)
Sat, Nov 25	vs	Chattanooga		3:00 PM	ESPN+

I know it’s FCS, but let’s give the Govs some credit here. They are probably better than UConn.

Florida


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Thu, Aug 31	@	14 Utah	L	24-11	0-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	McNeese	W	49-7	3-2 (1-1)
Sat, Sep 16	vs	11 Tennessee	W	29-16	2-1 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	Charlotte	W	22-7	3-1 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 30	@	Kentucky	L	33-14	3-2 (1-1)
Sat, Oct 7	vs	Vanderbilt	W	38-14	4-2 (2-1)
Sat, Oct 14	@	South Carolina	W	41-39	5-2 (3-1)
Sat, Oct 28	vs	1 Georgia	L	43-20	5-3 (3-2)
Sat, Nov 4	vs	Arkansas	L	39-36 OT	5-4 (3-3)
Sat, Nov 11	@	19 LSU	L	52-35	5-5 (3-4)
Sat, Nov 18	@	9 Missouri	L	33-31	5-6 (3-5)
Sat, Nov 25	vs	4 Florida State		7:00 PM	ESPN

Honk if you would love to see the Gators finish the season with five losses.

UTSA


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	@	Houston	L	17-14	0-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	Texas State	W	20-13	1-1 (0-0)
Fri, Sep 15	vs	Army	L	37-29	1-2 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 23	@	23 Tennessee	L	45-14	1-3 (0-0)
Sat, Oct 7	@	Temple	W	49-34	2-3 (1-0)
Sat, Oct 14	vs	UAB	W	41-20	3-3 (2-0)
Sat, Oct 21	@	Florida Atlantic	W	36-10	4-3 (3-0)
Sat, Oct 28	vs	East Carolina	W	41-27	5-3 (4-0)
Sat, Nov 4	@	North Texas	W	37-29	6-3 (5-0)
Sat, Nov 11	vs	Rice	W	34-14	7-3 (6-0)
Fri, Nov 17	vs	South Florida	W	49-21	8-3 (7-0)
Sat, Nov 25	@	24 Tulane		3:30 PM	ABC

South Carolina


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	vs	21 North Carolina	L	31-17	0-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	Furman	W	47-21	1-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	@	1 Georgia	L	24-14	1-2 (0-1)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	Mississippi State	W	37-30	2-2 (1-1)
Sat, Sep 30	@	21 Tennessee	L	41-20	2-3 (1-2)
Sat, Oct 14	vs	Florida	L	41-39	2-4 (1-3)
Sat, Oct 21	@	20 Missouri	L	34-12	2-5 (1-4)
Sat, Oct 28	@	Texas A&M	L	30-17	2-6 (1-5)
Sat, Nov 4	vs	Jacksonville State	W	38-28	3-6 (1-5)
Sat, Nov 11	vs	Vanderbilt	W	47-6	4-6 (2-5)
Sat, Nov 18	vs	Kentucky	W	17-14	5-6 (3-5)
Sat, Nov 25	vs	Clemson		7:30 PM	SECN

Texas A&M


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	vs	New Mexico	W	52-10	1-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	@	Miami	L	48-33	1-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	vs	UL Monroe	W	47-3	2-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	Auburn	W	27-10	3-1 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 30	vs	Arkansas	W	34-22	4-1 (2-0)
Sat, Oct 7	vs	11 Alabama	L	26-20	4-2 (2-1)
Sat, Oct 14	@	19 Tennessee	L	20-13	4-3 (2-2)
Sat, Oct 28	vs	South Carolina	W	30-17	5-3 (3-2)
Sat, Nov 4	@	10 Ole Miss	L	38-35	5-4 (3-3)
Sat, Nov 11	vs	Mississippi State	W	51-10	6-4 (4-3)
Sat, Nov 18	vs	Abilene Christian	W	38-10	7-4 (4-3)
Sat, Nov 25	@	15 LSU		12:00 PM	ESPN

Alabama


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	vs	Middle Tennessee	W	56-7	1-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	11 Texas	L	34-24	1-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	@	South Florida	W	17-3	2-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	15 Ole Miss	W	24-10	3-1 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 30	@	Mississippi State	W	40-17	4-1 (2-0)
Sat, Oct 7	@	Texas A&M	W	26-20	5-1 (3-0)
Sat, Oct 14	vs	Arkansas	W	24-21	6-1 (4-0)
Sat, Oct 21	vs	17 Tennessee	W	34-20	7-1 (5-0)
Sat, Nov 4	vs	14 LSU	W	42-28	8-1 (6-0)
Sat, Nov 11	@	Kentucky	W	49-21	9-1 (7-0)
Sat, Nov 18	vs	Chattanooga	W	66-10	10-1 (7-0)
Sat, Nov 25	@	Auburn		3:30 PM	CBS
Sat, Dec 2	vs	1 Georgia		4:00 PM	CBS

Kentucky


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Sat, Sep 2	vs	Ball State	W	44-14	1-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	vs	Eastern Kentucky	W	28-17	2-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	vs	Akron	W	35-3	3-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 23	@	Vanderbilt	W	45-28	4-0 (1-0)
Sat, Sep 30	vs	22 Florida	W	33-14	5-0 (2-0)
Sat, Oct 7	@	1 Georgia	L	51-13	5-1 (2-1)
Sat, Oct 14	vs	Missouri	L	38-21	5-2 (2-2)
Sat, Oct 28	vs	21 Tennessee	L	33-27	5-3 (2-3)
Sat, Nov 4	@	Mississippi State	W	24-3	6-3 (3-3)
Sat, Nov 11	vs	8 Alabama	L	49-21	6-4 (3-4)
Sat, Nov 18	@	South Carolina	L	17-14	6-5 (3-5)
Sat, Nov 25	@	10 Louisville		12:00 PM	ABC

UConn


Date		Opponent	Result	Score	W-L
Thu, Aug 31	vs	NC State	L	24-14	0-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 9	@	Georgia State	L	35-14	0-2 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 16	vs	Florida International	L	24-17	0-3 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 23	vs	18 Duke	L	41-7	0-4 (0-0)
Sat, Sep 30	vs	Utah State	L	34-33	0-5 (0-0)
Sat, Oct 7	@	Rice	W	38-31	1-5 (0-0)
Sat, Oct 21	vs	South Florida	L	24-21	1-6 (0-0)
Sat, Oct 28	@	Boston College	L	21-14	1-7 (0-0)
Sat, Nov 4	@	17 Tennessee	L	59-3	1-8 (0-0)
Sat, Nov 11	@	James Madison	L	44-6	1-9 (0-0)
Sat, Nov 18	vs	Sacred Heart	W	31-3	2-9 (0-0)
Sat, Nov 25	@	Massachusetts		12:00 PM	ESPN+

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SpeedyWillie

1 year ago

What happens in Tennessee, Georgia, and Florida all end up with two losses? Specifically, if Missouri beats Georgia but loses to Florida – and we win out. Then all three teams would have two division losses and equal 1-1 record against each other.

Doesn’t seem likely – but hey, crazier things have happened!