The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: After Alabama

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

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My assessment

Regarding the Vols’ past opponents: It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but most of the Vols’ prior opponents are looking better than we previously thought. Georgia State and Chattanooga are good for their classification (although we still should not have lost to the Panthers). Florida’s looking good. Georgia has looked a little vulnerable the last couple of weeks, but they’re still obviously good. BYU just had another good win, although, like the Vols, they’re kind of all over the board. Mississippi State, who knows?

As for the Vols themselves, we’ve sniffed some hints over the past couple of weeks that they’re actually improving at a pretty good pace after a slow start, and this past weekend’s game against the Alabama Crimson Tide turned those hints into actual probative evidence that could win an argument. They’re getting better. There are still open questions, namely how much better are they, and how much will that improvement ebb and flow?

As for Tennessee’s future opponents, South Carolina got beat this week by Florida but looked good losing (and beat Georgia last week), and Georgia beat Kentucky but looked bad winning. Missouri lost to Vanderbilt, which probably means only that Missouri can lose to a bad team and Vanderbilt can beat a good team. UAB still scares me as a sleeper.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 4.7. That’s up from last week, but not as much as I thought it would be. It’s hard to get toss-ups to add up to as many wins as you’d like. I’m basically back to my preseason expectations, except that Georgia State and BYU went the wrong way.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

• Preseason: 6.55
• After Week 0: 6.6
• After Week 1: 2.87
• After Week 2: 2.37
• After Week 3: 3.65
• After Week 4: 2.9
• After Week 5: 3.25
• After Week 6: 3.85
• After Week 7: 4.4
• After Week 8: 4.7

Details: I now have South Carolina and Missouri both at 45% and Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and UAB at 60%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-5 (1-2), 5th in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 5-2 (2-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

As I said last week, 2019 Georgia State isn’t the 2-10 Sun Belt team it was from 2018. They’re now 5-2.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 3-4 (0-0)

The Cougars notched another good win this weekend by upsetting No. 14 Boise State. You’ll recall that earlier in the season, they beat a then-ranked USC team. Sure, they’ve also lost to Toledo and South Florida, but they’ve shown they can beat decent-to-good teams, and doing so makes the Vols’ loss to them earlier this season look a little less bad.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 4-3 (3-0), 1st in the Southern Conference

Chattanooga is still an FCS team, but they’re first in their conference, so that’s something.

Florida Gators

Current record: 7-1 (4-1), 1st in the SEC East

I don’t know about you, but watching much of this weekend’s Florida-South Carolina game made me feel better about the loss to the Gators and worse about the prospects against the Gamecocks this week. (Although the Vols made up for that latter feeling with their later effort against the Tide.)

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 2nd in the SEC East

This weekend’s Georgia-Kentucky game was tied 0-0 at the half, and the Bulldogs really didn’t look very good all game. It’s hard to tell how much that was them and how much was Kentucky, so I’m kind of splitting the difference and feeling worse about the loss to Georgia and also slightly more wary about the upcoming game against Kentucky.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-4 (1-3), 6th in the SEC West

There’s no shame in losing 36-13 to the No. 2 team in the country, so I’m deferring judgment on the Bulldogs for now.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 7-0 (4-0), 1st in the SEC West

The Tennessee-Alabama game was closer than everyone expected it to be, but again, it’s difficult to tell how much of that is on Alabama and how much credit to give an improving Vols squad. I think it’s safe to say that Alabama isn’t the same team without Tua, though.

The Vols’ future opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 3-4 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East

See above. The Gamecocks are much better than their record suggests. North Carolina took them (and many others) by surprise, then they played a full-strength Alabama team tough and beat No. 3 Georgia. Plus, that Florida game was closer than the score makes it look. They’re going to be tough, even for an improving Vols team.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 2nd in C-USA West

I sounded the alarm on the UAB Blazers last week, and I’m still ringing the bell this week. We’re at serious risk of overlooking these guys.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 3-4 (1-4), 7th in the SEC East

See above. They played Georgia tough for most of the game. Plus, they’re going to get a much-needed rest the week before they take on the Vols.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-2 (2-1), 3rd in the SEC East

Wait, what? Vanderbilt lost to UNLV last week and beat a ranked and rolling Missouri team this week? The Tigers are an enigma. You could conclude that they’re good against teams without a decent defense, but they did also beat South Carolina, so you know. Whatever the case, the new data this week suggests a better opportunity for the Vols than we thought last week.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-5 (1-3), 5th in the SEC East

See above. Even a reeling Vandy can get you if you don’t take them seriously.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?