Expected Win Total Machine: Week 2 | Gameday on Rocky Top

Leading the conversation at church yesterday morning: “Uh oh, Florida’s good again!” And while we don’t have to solve that problem this week, it does go in the math of this week’s expected win total machine.

Will the Gators be the week’s biggest mover among our opinions of Tennessee’s opponents? I felt like LSU was the least predictable game on the schedule going in, and I’m still not exactly sure what to expect from those guys…but I feel better about Tennessee’s chances. I’m curious to see how Georgia’s performance impacts our percentages there as well. Meanwhile, I’d imagine we’re feeling a little better about Pitt, South Carolina, maybe Kentucky, maybe others…

The number won’t improve much by itself by beating Ball State. Where I’ll really be curious is to come back next week, if the Vols beat Pitt, and see if we’re up past 8.5 wins.

But first, how are we feeling about Pitt, and the rest? Enter your probabilities below, and we’ll tally it up later this week:

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Will Shelton

2 years ago

I’ve got the Vols at 8.15 wins this week, down from 8.24 last week.

Erik

2 years ago

Lots of games that I think of as toss-ups at this point. Florida likely came off looking a lot better than they really are tbh.

Isaac Bishop

2 years ago

Your expected win total is 7.7.
Your details:

vs Ball State: 100%

at Pittsburgh: 60%

vs Akron: 99%

vs Florida: 50%

at LSU: 60%

vs Alabama: 10%

vs UT-Martin: 99%

vs Kentucky: 60%

at Georgia: 5%

vs Missouri: 70%

at South Carolina: 70%

at Vanderbilt: 90%

Still the same at 7.7
Florida and UGA chances went down. LSU and SC chances went up.

HixsonVol

2 years ago

Sitting at 8.3 this week
Your expected win total is 8.3.
Your details:

vs Ball State: 100%

at Pittsburgh: 68%

vs Akron: 100%

vs Florida: 58%

at LSU: 64%

vs Alabama: 15%

vs UT-Martin: 100%

vs Kentucky: 68%

at Georgia: 15%

vs Missouri: 72%

at South Carolina: 72%

at Vanderbilt: 100%

Tom Turley

2 years ago

Up to 8.0 this week. More confident about Pittsburg and LSU, slighly less so about Florida. I had so hoped those Gators were going to suck this year!

Your expected win total is 8.0.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 55%
vs Akron: 99%
vs Florida: 50%
at LSU: 60%
vs Alabama: 25%
vs UT-Martin: 99%
vs Kentucky: 75%
at Georgia: 15%
vs Missouri: 80%
at South Carolina: 60%
at Vanderbilt: 85%

OKVol

2 years ago

Mine hasn’t changed much. I just assumed that however Florida was overall, they were going to give us trouble.

Your expected win total is 7.8.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 55%
vs Akron: 99%
vs Florida: 45%
at LSU: 45%
vs Alabama: 10%
vs UT-Martin: 99%
vs Kentucky: 60%
at Georgia: 20%
vs Missouri: 80%
at South Carolina: 75%
at Vanderbilt: 90%

Sam Hensley

2 years ago

Your expected win total is 8.2, up from 8.1.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 70%
vs Akron: 95%
vs Florida: 50%
at LSU: 45%
vs Alabama: 25%
vs UT-Martin: 99%
vs Kentucky: 65%
at Georgia: 25%
vs Missouri: 80%
at South Carolina: 75%
at Vanderbilt: 90%

I thought I would be down, not up. Interesting!

Jayyyy

2 years ago

Your expected win total is 7.7. No change overall from last week for me. Feel slightly better about Pitt, slightly worse about Florida.

Your details:

vs Ball State: 100%

at Pittsburgh: 60%

vs Akron: 95%

vs Florida: 50%

at LSU: 55%

vs Alabama: 10%

vs UT-Martin: 98%

vs Kentucky: 60%

at Georgia: 10%

vs Missouri: 75%

at South Carolina: 65%

at Vanderbilt: 93%

Andrew Cooper

2 years ago

I’m almost exactly the same as before overall.
Your expected win total is 7.9.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 60%
vs Akron: 99%
vs Florida: 50%
at LSU: 60%
vs Alabama: 20%
vs UT-Martin: 99%
vs Kentucky: 60%
at Georgia: 10%
vs Missouri: 80%
at South Carolina: 70%
at Vanderbilt: 85%

Harley

2 years ago

After surprise quarterback play by Florida / Vandy and some softness on Vol defense… win total comes down. Optimism has now swung toward some realism. Go Vols!
Your expected win total is 7.8.
Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 70%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 60%
at LSU: 50%
vs Alabama: 15%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 70%
at Georgia: 15%
vs Missouri: 70%
at South Carolina: 60%
at Vanderbilt: 70%

2 years ago

Some of the individual games changed, but same total as last week for me.
Your expected win total is 7.3.
Your details:
vs Ball State: 100% (+1)
at Pittsburgh: 45% (-5)
vs Akron: 99% (same)
vs Florida: 35% (-5)
at LSU: 35% (same)
vs Alabama: 1% (same)
vs UT-Martin: 99% (same)
vs Kentucky: 60% (+5)
at Georgia: 1% (-4)
vs Missouri: 90% (same)
at South Carolina: 65% (same)
at Vanderbilt: 95% (same)

Drew

2 years ago

I’m super late to this party, but I want to keep track for the future. Have just turned on the Pitt game and so I just kept it what I remember from last week.
Your expected win total is 7.2.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 50%
vs Akron: 90%
vs Florida: 35%
at LSU: 40%
vs Alabama: 20%
vs UT-Martin: 95%
vs Kentucky: 60%
at Georgia: 5%
vs Missouri: 70%
at South Carolina: 70%
at Vanderbilt: 80%