Expected Win Total Machine - Bye Week

The final third of the season features the Vols against #1, chances to get wins five and six, and a trip to #12 Kentucky that should make the difference between six and seven. The questions this week then:

Do you give the Vols a better chance against Georgia than you did against Alabama?
How are we feeling about Kentucky?

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Will Shelton

3 years ago

I’m back in the willing-it-to-happen department this week at 6.6 wins:

at Kentucky: 51%

vs Georgia: 17%

vs South Alabama: 94%

vs Vanderbilt: 95%

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Will Shelton

3 years ago

From last week: our community gave the Vols a 44.6% chance at Kentucky, a 6.7% chance against Bama, and an 8.2% chance vs Georgia. Curious to see what changes there.

Harley

3 years ago

Between a 6 and 7 win season… Go Vols!

Your expected win total is 6.5.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: %

vs Tennessee Tech: 100%

at Florida: %

at Missouri: 100%

vs South Carolina: 100%

vs Mississippi: %

at Alabama: %

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 0%

vs South Alabama: 100%

vs Vanderbilt: 100%

3 years ago

Your expected win total is 6.5.

Your details:

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 5%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 98%

No surprise the Bama game didn’t move the needle at all. I added 2% to Georgia and everything else is the same for me.

Gavin Driskill

3 years ago

No real changes…slight underdog against Kentucky, basically no shot against Georgia, wrap up with 2 should wins.

6.2 for me.

at Kentucky: 40%

vs Georgia: 2%

vs South Alabama: 90%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

Sam Hensley

3 years ago

6.5 for me. 6 or 7 wins hinges on a tossup game with UK

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 7%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 95%

memphispete

3 years ago

With the bye week, my idiot optimist level may swell so much that I may make it seven wins. By next Saturday, Kentucky will be worse than South Alabama and Vandy combined and I’ll wonder why we didn’t destroy Bama in the 4th qtr. (That may be the pregaming doing the talking)

Isaac Bishop

3 years ago

Your expected win total is 6.4

at Kentucky: 40%

vs Georgia: 8%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 95%

SmokeyX

3 years ago

Down a little bit from last week’s 7.0, but that just reflects the loss to Bama because I’m still giving us a more-than-zero chance of beating Georgia at home . Hold my beer:

Your expected win total is 6.7.

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 30%

vs South Alabama: 95%

vs Vanderbilt: 95%