It’s Post-Game Monday, which means that it’s time to re-assess our expected win totals in light of what happened this past weekend. You can submit your own ballot at the GRT Expected Win Total Machine page.
My assessment
I’m writing this early Sunday morning, so what I’m writing may be a bit amplified by the proximity to yesterday’s disappointment.
My expected win total for this season is now 5.45.
Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:
- Preseason: 5.4
- After beating South Carolina: 5.8
- After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
- After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
Details: I have Florida at 20%, Alabama at 25%, A&M and Auburn at 45%, Kentucky and Arkansas at 60%, and Vanderbilt at 90%.
Here’s a table with my expectations this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 2-1, 2nd in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ South Carolina | W | 31-27 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs Missouri | W | 35-12 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 3 Georgia | L | 44-21 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Kentucky | L | 34-7 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | vs 2 Alabama | L | 48-17 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ Arkansas | L | 24-13 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ 23 Auburn | L | 30-17 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs 6 Florida | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | vs 5 Texas A&M | ||
| Sat, Dec 19 | @ Vanderbilt (??) |
I’m sure I’m no different than most Vols fans in that I was feeling pretty good about Tennessee after wins over South Carolina and Missouri. I didn’t think the Vols would beat Georgia, but I did think it wouldn’t feel like a replay of the past several years. In the first half, it didn’t feel like that, as the offense appeared to be doing just enough to hang with the Bulldogs and maybe even win and the defense was frustrating Georgia’s offense.
But Georgia’s superb defense was just too much in the second half, having its way with Tennessee’s talented offensive line over and over and over again while the Vols’ defense slowly gave out.
I’m cautioning myself not to overreact too much. Georgia is a national title contender, after all, and if Tennessee can still take care of business against the SEC East’s second tier, it still has plenty of opportunities (Alabama, Florida) to maybe get one of those elusive wins against elite teams. And even without that, there’s room to grow with additional opportunities against teams like A&M and Auburn that appear to be somewhere in between the elite and the SEC East’s second tier.
The question, of course, is whether I think any of that is actually reasonable. At this point, I do, although my certainty about it has waned significantly after this weekend.
Bottom line: I’m only slightly more concerned about the Vols themselves this week than I was last week.
The Vols’ future opponents
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 1-2, 4th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ 8 Auburn | L | 29-13 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs Ole Miss | L | 42-41 (OT) |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs Mississippi State | W | 24-2 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ Tennessee | W | 34-7 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Missouri | L | 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs 5 Georgia | L | 14-3 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 38-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ 1 Alabama | L | 63-3 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ 6 Florida | L | 34-10 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs South Carolina |
I’m feeling worse about the Kentucky Wildcats, and not just because they had six (!) interceptions this weekend. After watching Ole Miss score almost at will against Alabama last night, that one-point loss in overtime to the Rebels is looking pretty good as well. I’m moving them from 70% to 60%.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 3-0, 1st in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Missouri | W | 38-19 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 13 Texas A&M | W | 52-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ Ole Miss | W | 63-48 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs 3 Georgia | W | 41-24 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Tennessee | W | 48-17 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Mississippi State | W | 41-0 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ LSU | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Kentucky | W | 63-3 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs 22 Auburn | W | 42-13 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Arkansas |
Again, I’m not sure whether last night’s back-and-forth with Ole Miss is more credit to Lane Kiffin or concern about Alabama’s defense. For now, I’m splitting the difference on that. So, I’m feeling slightly better about Alabama this week. Sure, they also scored 63 points, but it’s beginning to become clear that Ole Miss can’t stop anybody so maybe that’s not quite as impressive as it seems. I’m moving the Tide from 20% to 25%.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Current record: 1-2, 4th in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 4 Georgia | L | 37-10 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 16 Mississippi State | W | 21-14 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 13 Auburn | L | 30-28 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Ole Miss | W | 33-21 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ 8 Texas A&M | L | 42-31 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs Tennessee | W | 24-13 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ 6 Florida | L | 63-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs LSU | L | 27-24 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Missouri |
Arkansas would have beaten Auburn if not for a botched call that replay wasn’t able to overturn. I’m feeling much worse about these guys. They no longer seem like the Vanderbilt of the West; they look like either a member of the second tier in the SEC East or, gulp, like us. I’m moving them to 60% and just below Kentucky.
Texas A&M
Current record: 2-1, 2nd in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 17-12 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 2 Alabama | L | 52-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs 4 Florida | W | 41-38 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ Mississippi State | W | 28-14 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Arkansas | W | 42-31 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ South Carolina | W | 48-3 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Ole Miss | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs LSU | W | 20-7 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ 22 Auburn | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | @ Tennessee |
A&M exposed Florida’s problems on defense. Whether that means they are finally now who we thought they were preseason, I don’t know. I do know that I feel worse about them today than I did two days ago. I’m moving them from 50% to 45%.
Auburn Tigers
Current record: 2-1, 2nd in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 23 Kentucky | W | 29-13 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 4 Georgia | L | 27-6 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs Arkansas | W | 30-28 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ South Carolina | L | 30-22 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Ole Miss | W | 35-28 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs LSU | W | 48-11 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Tennessee | W | 30-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ 1 Alabama | L | 42-13 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs 5 Texas A&M | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | @ Mississippi State |
See Arkansas above. Auburn lost this on a botched snap that Bo Nix then attempted to spike backward, basically making it a lateral. Arkansas recovered, but the refs on the field got it wrong, and the rules say that replay couldn’t correct it, probably because the whistle blew and players stopped playing. Still, the Tigers are dangerous. I’m feeling like these guys are essentially the same as Texas A&M, so I’m making both of them 45% and giving the Tigers the edge.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 0-3, 7th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ 10 Texas A&M | L | 17-12 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 20 LSU | L | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs South Carolina | L | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Ole Miss | L | 54-21 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ Mississippi State | L | 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Kentucky | L | 38-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs 6 Florida | L | 38-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ Missouri | L | 41-0 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ 9 Georgia | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | ??? |
See South Carolina above. No change in perception of the ‘Dores: 90%.
Florida Gators
Current record: 2-1, 2nd in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Ole Miss | W | 51-35 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs South Carolina | W | 38-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 21 Texas A&M | L | 41-38 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | Missouri | W | 41-17 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 5 Georgia | W | 44-28 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs Arkansas | W | 63-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 38-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs Kentucky | W | 34-10 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Tennessee | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | vs LSU |
See A&M above. I’m not sure whether to credit A&M for the win or be a little less concerned about the Gators because of their defense. Bottom line, I think I feel a little less concerned about them this week than last. That offense is really good, but yes, the defense does make them vulnerable. I’m keeping them at 20% and making them the most difficult game remaining due to dropping Alabama to 25%.
The Vols’ past opponents
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 1-2, 4th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 16 Tennessee | L | 31-27 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 3 Florida | L | 38-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Auburn | W | 30-22 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ LSU | L | 52-24 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 7 Texas A&M | L | 48-3 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Ole Miss | L | 59-42 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Missouri | L | 17-10 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs 9 Georgia | L | 45-16 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Kentucky |
South Carolina basically did what it was supposed to do against Vanderbilt this week. That means no change in perception and no impact on perception of Tennessee for me.
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 1-2, 4th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 2 Alabama | L | 38-19 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 21 Tennessee | L | 35-12 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 17 LSU | W | 45-41 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Vanderbilt | Postponed | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | vs Kentucky | W | 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ 10 Florida | L | 41-17 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs 5 Georgia | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ South Carolina | W | 17-10 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 41-0 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs Arkansas | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 |
Who knows whether Missouri beating LSU says more about Missouri or more about LSU? I feel maybe slightly better about Tennessee now that Missouri has beaten LSU, but I wonder if LSU is just as much of a mess as I thought they would be preseason. Of course, I also thought the Georgia offense would struggle and I appear to have been wrong about that, so maybe Missouri deserves more credit than I’m giving them.
Georgia
Current record: 3-0, 1st in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Arkansas | W | 37-10 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 7 Auburn | W | 27-6 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs 14 Tennessee | W | 44-21 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ 2 Alabama | L | 41-24 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ Kentucky | W | 14-3 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 8 Florida | L | 44-28 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Missouri | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Mississippi State | W | 31-24 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ South Carolina | W | 45-16 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs Vanderbilt |
We’ll see how Georgia does against Alabama next week. I really thought their offense would struggle more this season and that Tennessee’s offensive line would be closer to an even match against that defense than it turned out to be.
What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now? You can post your current thoughts and details here, but don’t forget to submit your ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.