Last week, off a 10-point win over Mississippi State and with increasing confidence Brian Maurer would play against Alabama, our community Expected Win Total was 4.82. This week, off a tantalizing what-if at Alabama but with decreasing confidence Maurer will play against South Carolina, our community win total is…4.81.
Maurer’s uncertain status is keeping us from the best versions of the Alabama game, both the ones where we might’ve actually won it, and the ones where the Vols still parlay what actually happened into a momentum-solidifying win over South Carolina and better odds at bowl eligibility. To be clear, Tennessee will still have plenty of opportunity to win this game. But if we’re looking for landmarks, this week feels like a detour.
Maybe it’ll be J.T. Shrout in his first career start. Maybe it’ll be Jarrett Guarantano. And if it is JG and you’re there tomorrow, we’d echo what I hope will be the majority: it’s not in anyone’s best interests for you to boo that kid. I’d go one more: if it’s Guarantano, cheer for him. Loudly. On purpose. Don’t tell yourself you won’t boo him in pregame but save it for his first mistake and think it was charitable. After everything we’ve seen, including and especially last Saturday’s scenario at the goal line, I think we can say for sure that if he’s playing it’s because he really, truly still represents Tennessee’s best chance to win. And he might. If so, get behind him.
Whether it’s Shrout or Guarantano, Tennessee is likely to rely on its ground game and its defense to beat South Carolina for the first time since 2015 and Will Muschamp for the first time period. That would’ve seemed like an impossibility a month ago, but Tennessee’s improvement on the offensive line and throughout its defense is significant enough to both ask the question and hope for the right answer.
We’ve seen the Vols go run-heavy in Maurer’s absence against Mississippi State and Alabama. We’ve also seen it against BYU, especially after Guarantano’s third quarter interception. Since I don’t anticipate Guarantano or Shrout giving Tennessee much with their legs the way Maurer has, here’s what Tennessee’s running backs did in those three “here comes the run” games:
| Opponent | RB Carries | Yards | YPC | Run Ratio |
| BYU | 43 | 231 | 5.37 | 63.6% |
| Miss St | 37 | 129 | 3.49 | 75.9% |
| Alabama | 24 | 129 | 5.38 | 60.7% |
No surprise, the more you know it’s coming, the better you are at stopping it. Tennessee was able to beat Mississippi State running three out of four snaps. And the Vols were trending that direction against the Cougars; we remember the two fourth-and-one stops, and rightfully so, but Tennessee really ran the ball well all day against BYU.
South Carolina is 58th nationally in yards per carry allowed at 3.99. The closest comparison is…Tennessee, 57th nationally at 3.98. North Carolina beat them in the opener in a version of here comes the run: 52 carries for 238 yards (4.6 ypc), running the ball 68.4% of the time. The Gamecocks worked to take the ground game away from Alabama (25 carries for 76 yards), but Bama simply shifted to Tua and finished with 39 passing attempts and 47 points. Against Georgia, South Carolina survived 113 yards at 4.9 per carry from D’Andre Swift by getting three interceptions off Jake Fromm. They’d take that against Tennessee too, I’m sure.
Can Tennessee run it well enough against this defense when they know it’s coming, and not ask Shrout or Guarantano to do too much? A lot of that answer depends on Tennessee’s defense.
The Vol defense is 42nd in SP+ right now, a nice improvement after finishing 72nd last season and losing all of its defensive linemen. What seems comfortable to say at this point after watching the Vols against BYU, Mississippi State, and Alabama post-Tua: if your quarterback is average or below, this defense will make you pay.
Where does Ryan Hilinski fall on that scale?
Take out the Charleston Southern game, and Hilinski has struggled in yards per attempt. Against FBS competition he’s 96-of-169 (56.8%) 916 yards (5.4 ypa) with five touchdowns and only two interceptions. Clearly, he’s doing enough to give South Carolina a chance, and the Gamecocks cashed it in against Georgia (and have reason to be upset about Florida). But like Tennessee, the coaching staff isn’t putting the game on the shoulders of its quarterback.
If Tennessee can make this game follow the script from BYU and Mississippi State, they’ll have their chances. Hilinski hasn’t been in the mood to throw interceptions the way the Bulldogs were. The over/under here is 47.5, so Vegas expects something like South Carolina 26-21. If the Gamecocks get to 26, I’m not sure that’s good news for Tennessee.
I’d expect some version of what we saw in this game last time it was played in Knoxville in Guarantano’s first career start, even with a different coaching staff. The Vols ran the ball 39 times at 3.1 ypc, attempted 19 passes with a handful coming on the final drive, and lost 15-9 because they settled for three field goals and couldn’t punch it in from inside the five in the final seconds. Tennessee will need to win ugly this week. But our ugly is looking better and better these days. Will it look good enough for victory?
Go Vols.