In Bill Connelly’s preseason SP+ ratings, we were surprised to see the Tennessee defense come in at sixth overall, with all 130 teams accounted for. But some of the biggest pieces of that puzzle – no big plays, get to the quarterback, force turnovers – were things the Vols did well last season. The question was, how would they perform in those areas without Darrell Taylor, Daniel Bituli, and Nigel Warrior?
Your mileage may vary on what we saw from the defense at South Carolina, playing without Shawn Shamburger (which appears to be the case again this week). But in those three areas, the Vols did quite well.
No big plays
How many big plays did South Carolina have?
It feels like a handful, right? But it depends on how you define it.
Tennessee allowed 17 plays of 10+ yards (stats via SportSource Analytics). Among teams who’ve played only one game, only eight teams gave up more. That’s not great.
But only five of those 17 plays became 20+ yard gains. Two of those came on the opening drive, attacking Shamburger’s absence right away. But surrendering five 20+ yard gains currently ranks the Vols 12th in the nation. It’ll be somewhat hard to make these kinds of comparisons this season, because the 2020 Vols don’t have Chattanooga on the schedule, but last year Tennessee gave up only 39 20+ yard gains on the season, three per contest, third nationally.
The best news: last year Tennessee led the nation in gains of 30+ yards allowed, giving up just 10 such plays. How many 30+ yard gains did South Carolina get?
Just one: a 42-yard gain on their first snap of the second half, immediately after the Vols took a 21-7 lead.
Of the 72 teams to play so far this year, only four – Arkansas, Baylor, North Carolina, and Texas A&M – haven’t given up a 30+ yard play. Tennessee is tied with four others, including Alabama, Georgia, and Kentucky, in giving up just one. (That’s almost half the league.)
Is this bend but don’t break? Only if you don’t do the other things well.
Get to the quarterback
How would Tennessee pressure the opposing quarterback without Darrell Taylor? So far, so good: four sacks against the Gamecocks, a player-of-the-week showing from Deandre Johnson, and hope the Vols can continue to cause problems for the opponent the way they did last season. With 34 sacks in 2019, the Vols put up their best total in five years. Taylor had 8.5 of those, making his absence the defense’s biggest perceived issue. But it wasn’t a problem at South Carolina.
In the post-Fulmer era, the Vols are 18-4 when recording at least four sacks. And one of those four losses is the 2015 Alabama game, the closest Tennessee came to beating Bama in the last ten years. Another is last year’s BYU game, which required extreme weirdness to end in defeat. And some of the most meaningful wins since Fulmer was on the sideline show up in those 18 victories: Mississippi State and Indiana last season, 2018 Kentucky (when Darrell Taylor got four sacks by himself), the blowout of Northwestern, and back-to-back wins over South Carolina in 2013 and 2014. Get the QB four times, and you’ve got an excellent chance of winning. That’s in part because getting to the quarterback is the best way to…
Create turnovers
Henry To’o To’o’s pick six was of obvious value. The punt fumble recovery sealed the game. And just as important here was the offense keeping a clean slate, giving the Vols a +2 turnover margin.
In the post-Fulmer era, Tennessee is 25-2 with at least a +2 turnover margin. And you have to get really weird to lose at +2:
- 2017 Kentucky, when the Vols went +4 but also kicked six field goals, made only four, and lost by three in the, “Okay, Butch Jones is definitely getting fired,” game.
- 2010 LSU, when the Vols again went +4 but lost after the clock struck zero.
And here again, you’ll find some of our greatest (recent) hits on this list: 2018 Auburn, 2017 Georgia Tech, the Battle at Bristol, the 2015 Outback Bowl, 2013 South Carolina, and both of Lane Kiffin’s signature wins over Georgia and South Carolina in 2009.
The defense, at this point, seems built to not give up big plays. But it’s not bend but don’t break. It’s bend ’til they break: if Tennessee keeps getting to the quarterback, forcing multiple turnovers, and playing a clean game on their end of things? The Vols can do a lot of winning led by a defense that will look strong all season.
