On Saturday (12:30 PM ET, CBS), the NCAA selection committee will reveal its current Top 16 seeds. It’s the third year they’ve done so in early February, and the second time the Vols will appear in it. And while last year our enthusiasm was muted after taking a 28-point beating from Alabama the day before, this time we’ll get a glimpse of how the committee sees the Vols in the race for the number one overall seed.
That’s Bernard Muir, Stanford’s athletic director who serves as the selection committee chairman this year. And those top eight teams seem relatively easy to figure out, as it’s an identical list in KenPom, the Bracket Matrix, and eight-of-nine in the NET ratings: Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Michigan, Kentucky, Michigan State, and North Carolina.
There are a pair of one-loss mid-majors from Nevada and Houston who could crash the party (and Houston is seventh in NET), but I’d bet on the established names.
This isn’t worth a whole lot five weeks before the real thing – last year the Vols were the first four seed (13th) in first reveal and ended up 10th on the S-curve – but it should be an excellent indicator of how the committee views the Vols, specifically against Duke and Virginia. Where they put Gonzaga will be interesting overall, but it shouldn’t be above the Vols. But I could see Tennessee falling anywhere between one and three overall in this thing.
A few hours after the reveal, Duke and Virginia play each other again. Even if the Vols take care of business in the return match with the Gators (now 12-10 and in desperate need of a win over #1), the victor between Duke and UVA could vault the Vols in the eyes of the selection committee, if not in the AP poll.
But Tennessee will get the chance for the last word, in a sense, if Kentucky also stays hot. For the Vols and Wildcats to play twice after Duke and Virginia are done with each other is a big advantage in perception, especially if UT or UK can take full advantage with a sweep.
As for what we’ll see today, here’s a guess:
- Duke (Washington DC)
- Virginia (Louisville)
- Tennessee (Kansas City)
- Gonzaga (Anaheim)
- Michigan
- Kentucky
- Michigan State
- North Carolina
One other point about this kind of setup: as those top eight include Gonzaga and then just three conferences, the committee will have to do some gymnastics to keep the top teams from each league in separate regions. If the list above actually represented the S-curve on Selection Sunday, the Vols would be most likely to catch North Carolina at #8 to keep the Vols away from Kentucky and the Tar Heels away from Duke/UVA.
The reveal should be educational, but the Vols will still be just fine by taking care of their own business. That’s the Gators at 4:00 PM ET on ESPN. Let’s see if they hit a dozen threes this time.
