Opportunity knocks, and she is a lot taller than us.
Tennessee will open the Battle 4 Atlantis on Wednesday at 12:00 PM ET (ESPN2) against #18 Purdue. The Boilermakers have been busy: wins over SIU-Edwardsville, Chicago State, and Fairfield by a combined 132 points. More importantly, they won at Marquette (#55 KenPom) 86-71.
1. Seriously, these dudes are tall.
Purdue was a four-seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament, playing their way to the Sweet 16 before getting obliterated by Kansas. They lost power forward Caleb Swanigan to the first round of the NBA Draft, but all the other contributors are back. That starts with 7’2″ Isaac Haas, averaging 13.5 points and six rebounds in just 18.8 minutes per game so far this year. 6’1″ guard Carson Edwards is shouldering some of Swanigan’s scoring load, getting 18.5 per game so far. And Dakota Mathias makes Purdue an inside-out nightmare: you can double-down on Haas, but Mathias shot 45.3% from the arc last year and is 13-of-16 (81.3%!) so far this year.
Add in 6’8″ Vincent Edwards (averaging a 15-9) and senior guard P.J. Thompson, and you’ve got five guys averaging double figures. And no worries: when Haas comes out, they replace him, impossibly, with someone even taller in 7’3″ freshman Matt Haarms of the Netherlands.
2. Purdue runs one of the most effective offenses in college basketball.
It’s a small sample size, but as of Monday night the Boilermakers were fifth nationally in field goal percentage, seventh in three point percentage, 11th in blocked shots, and fourth in points per game. But don’t count on it being a fluke: last year Purdue was 28th in field goal percentage and ninth in three point percentage (40.3%). They are currently seventh in Ken Pomeroy’s offensive ratings. The Vols are currently 34th in those same defensive ratings. But the task, if you will, is tall.
In two games, the Vols have nine players averaging 15+ minutes. One of them is Kyle Alexander, who is of course the only player in orange who can even attempt to look this Purdue front line in the eye. Tennessee did play great basketball on the offensive end at an extreme size disadvantage at Chapel Hill last year, but were still largely undone by 22 offensive rebounds from the Tar Heels.
Tennessee is currently 38th in KenPom and looked as good as you can against the low-level competition they’ve faced. Purdue is a great opportunity, especially with #5 Villanova probably awaiting the winner, but a bad match-up for the Vols on paper. A victory could be a gold mine in RPI and tournament resume. But even if it’s defeat, we’ll learn a lot more about how Rick Barnes wants his rotation to look.
3. …but Tennessee has the makings of their own effective offense.
The Vols have their own inside-out game working in the early going, and would really like to do a younger, smaller version of the Boilermakers’ offensive identity. Tennessee’s most important player is also inside; Grant Williams is averaging 11 points and 9.5 rebounds in 23 minutes, and is 10-of-14 at the free throw line. Admiral Schofield leads the team in scoring so far and is 8-of-9 at the line. And so far, the Vols have been hot from three at 45.2%. Schofield is 4-of-7, Jordan Bone 3-of-4, Jordan Bowden 5-of-7, and Lamonte Turner 4-of-9. The early returns show a much better shooting team; it won’t be so easy against Purdue, but getting good shots through a more effective offense continues to be one of the most important steps this team can take.
Tennessee will need all of that and more to beat Purdue. But even if the Vols fall here to a Final Four contender, continuing to play this well on the offensive end can take the Vols where they want to go this season. It’s a golden opportunity where victory puts you several steps closer to the tournament, but should be educational regardless of outcome. The winner likely gets #5 Villanova, the loser likely gets Western Kentucky.
