This loss hurts in the feels; in an environment like Sunday’s there is no other option in defeat. And that’s good: the first ranked match-up in Thompson-Boling Arena since 2010 produced the close game we should expect from such an encounter, and the inevitable pain from losing it. In falling short (and especially falling short in the final minutes due to a pair of preventable turnovers), Tennessee missed the chance to make a memory for a younger generation of students and basketball fans.
But what hurts in the feels often finds its way to recovery in our heads. My head tells me the biggest takeaway from Sunday’s game isn’t the missed opportunity, but the way Tennessee gave themselves one. Yesterday’s performance against North Carolina proves earlier ones against Villanova and Purdue were no fluke. Tennessee has played three of the top eight teams in the nation (in KenPom). They led North Carolina for 37 minutes before falling by five. They beat Purdue while playing from behind throughout the first half and the first two minutes of overtime. And they led Villanova by 15 early and were still within three in the final minute of an eventual nine-point loss.
Don’t undervalue that Purdue win. Villanova is the number one team in the polls and the best team in the nation by a healthy margin in KenPom. But Purdue (sixth) is better than North Carolina (eighth) in the latter metric. And Tennessee made huge plays in the final minutes of regulation and overtime to win that game. “Tennessee can’t get it done against great teams,” isn’t the story. In three Top 10 match-ups the Vols are 1-2 with real opportunities to be 3-0.
This team is no fluke and no flash in the pan. In those three games Tennessee shot 36.3% against Purdue, 45.3% against Villanova, and 37.3% against North Carolina while going a combined 24-of-68 (35.2%) from the arc. These games haven’t been close because the Vols have been on fire. Tennessee hasn’t been lucky. The Vols are simply playing good enough basketball on both ends of the floor to give themselves a chance to win against the best teams in the country. That’s a real sentence in year three under Rick Barnes.
Tennessee hosts Furman (KenPom #134) on Wednesday, then has a pair of non-conference games remaining: at Wake Forest (KenPom #65) on Saturday, and at Iowa State (KenPom #59) in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge in January. Split those games and go .500 in the SEC, and you’re 18-12 with a Top 50 RPI headed to the SEC Tournament. But Tennessee has played well enough to expect more than a, “Can we make the tournament?” conversation.
The SEC will test Tennessee’s consistency. But I don’t believe their ceiling to be any lower today than it was before tip-off yesterday; if anything, the ceiling is reinforced. Tennessee isn’t just playing with the best teams in college basketball, it’s giving itself a chance to win. The Vols beat Purdue, were within one possession of Villanova in the final minute, and gave away an opportunity to beat North Carolina. But there is nothing but opportunity in front of this team.
